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Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 9:36 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
USA data, this morning -

Worldometer: 24,626,441 & 408,623

CNN (JHU): 24,078,593 & 399,003

NYT: 24,126,100 & 399,052

I use the latter's data.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 10:11 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12960958)
USA data, this morning -

Worldometer: 24,626,441 & 408,623

CNN (JHU): 24,078,593 & 399,003

NYT: 24,126,100 & 399,052

I use the latter's data.

US infectons/deaths ?


Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 10:12 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960969)
US infectons/deaths ?

Sorry, yes.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 10:23 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12960950)
Deaths per million, whole pandemic -

UK: 1341
US: 1212
EU27/EEA: 892

It's shockingly bad performance (UK). We tend to regard the US as having a more chaotic and ineffective pandemic response, but the stats pain a very differnt picture. Amazingly, the UK media does not dwell on it.

Jingsamichty Jan 19th 2021 10:28 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960974)
It's shockingly bad performance (UK). We tend to regard the US as having a more chaotic and ineffective pandemic response, but the stats pain a very differnt picture. Amazingly, the UK media does not dwell on it.

Nothing amazing about it. Most of the UK media views any serious criticism of a Tory government as an act of Marxist insurrection.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 10:32 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
Deaths per million (Worldometer)

Italy 1367
UK 1320
USA 1231
France 1082
Sweden 1019
Germany 573
Ireland 527
Canada 478
China 61
Japan 36
Australia 35
Thailand 1

Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 10:34 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty (Post 12960976)
Nothing amazing about it. Most of the UK media views any serious criticism of a Tory government as an act of Marxist insurrection.

Well, the current UK politicians keep withering on about "world beating". They got it right with this one, very sadly.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 10:36 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty (Post 12960976)
Nothing amazing about it. Most of the UK media views any serious criticism of a Tory government as an act of Marxist insurrection.

Channel 4 doesn't seem overly enamoured with the Tories.

Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 10:48 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960980)
Deaths per million (Worldometer)

Italy 1367
UK 1320
USA 1231
France 1082
Sweden 1019
Germany 573
Ireland 527
Canada 478
China 61
Japan 36
Australia 35
Thailand 1

Interesting. I have only been logging the total EU/EEA figure.

However, fwiw, the latest Worldometer figure for the UK is 1348 (89,860 / 66.65).

Of course, the latest debate is based on the 7 day average. Tonight's UK figure will be revealing.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 11:09 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12960986)
Interesting. I have only been logging the total EU/EEA figure.

However, fwiw, the latest Worldometer figure for the UK is 1348 (89,860 / 66.65).

Of course, the latest debate is based on the 7 day average. Tonight's UK figure will be revealing.

On the Worldometer page I'm checking (global comparison) in the Deaths per million column it reads 1320 ??

Which page are you using?

Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 11:11 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
Given that the majority of deaths appear to occur in the over 65s it might be instructive to throw the relative proportion of this demographic into the mix -

US: 15%
UK: 18%
Italy: 23%


Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 11:13 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960989)
On the Worldometer page I'm checking (global comparison) in the Deaths per million column it reads 1320 ??

Which page are you using?

Front page, 89,860 deaths / 66.65 million. I guess their population figure is different, I must check!

Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 11:17 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960989)
On the Worldometer page I'm checking (global comparison) in the Deaths per million column it reads 1320 ??

Which page are you using?

Can you point the way, can't seem to find it!

Shard Jan 19th 2021 12:19 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12960996)
Can you point the way, can't seem to find it!

This page:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If you scroll down a large table appears.

Jingsamichty Jan 19th 2021 12:19 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960982)
Channel 4 doesn't seem overly enamoured with the Tories.

Indeed, Channel 4, The Guardian and The Independent are the only media sources which aim to hold the Government to account with any determination. The rest of the print media is either wilfully obsequious or more interested in celebs than current affairs. The BBC gets equally bashed by all sides so I guess they are as impartial as it's possible to be.

Expatrick Jan 19th 2021 3:18 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12960980)
Deaths per million (Worldometer)

Italy 1367
UK 1320
USA 1231
France 1082
Sweden 1019
Germany 573
Ireland 527
Canada 478
China 61
Japan 36
Australia 35
Thailand 1

This is how the picture is changing -

January 12 - 18 inclusive -

Italy deaths: 3351
UK deaths: 7900

(& rest of UK weekend's deaths yet to come).

Not good.

ETA: UK deaths figure just come in, 1610. Highest yet.

Danny B Jan 19th 2021 3:43 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12961178)

ETA: UK deaths figure just come in, 1610. Highest yet.

Reading a number doesn't hit you as hard as googling an image of 1,500 people. Truly shocking.

Jerseygirl Jan 19th 2021 3:52 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
I have moved the off topic posts into a new thread...

https://britishexpats.com/forum/mapl...thread-936686/

Thank you very muchly. :D

Shard Jan 19th 2021 4:06 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Danny B (Post 12961191)
Reading a number doesn't hit you as hard as googling an image of 1,500 people. Truly shocking.

That's true. I liked the analogy I read somewhere that it's like 2-3 jumbo jets falling out of the sky each day. I think there's a huge disconnect between the public and the data. TV shows an ICU with a handful or even a dozen beds, it doesn't show hundreds of dead.

Jingsamichty Jan 19th 2021 4:20 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Best number comparison analogy I've heard is 1 million compared to 1 billion.

One million seconds is 11 days.

One billion seconds is 32 years.

Danny B Jan 19th 2021 4:29 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12960986)
Interesting. I have only been logging the total EU/EEA figure.

However, fwiw, the latest Worldometer figure for the UK is 1348 (89,860 / 66.65).

Of course, the latest debate is based on the 7 day average. Tonight's UK figure will be revealing.

I've been using this:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...n-inhabitants/

Select the column ‘deaths per million last 7 days.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 4:47 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty (Post 12961215)
Best number comparison analogy I've heard is 1 million compared to 1 billion.

One million seconds is 11 days.

One billion seconds is 32 years.

When I make an analogy on lottery odds, I ususally do it in terms of time. For example 75,000,000:1 is like choosing a date and time (to the minute) in the last 143 years ! Another way is to determine a time (to the second) within the next 2.3 years.

Shard Jan 19th 2021 5:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Standing capacity at the Royal Albert Hall (eg. proms) is 1350. So approximately one of those audiences lost to Covid per day.

Tangram Jan 19th 2021 5:42 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Nurse in UK who had Covid in April got vaccine first dose 3 weeks ago. Just been taken to hospital with new strain symptoms.

Tough times ahead.

scrubbedexpat091 Jan 19th 2021 5:53 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Tangram (Post 12961273)
Nurse in UK who had Covid in April got vaccine first dose 3 weeks ago. Just been taken to hospital with new strain symptoms.

Tough times ahead.

A US congressman has COVID last I saw he wasn't showing symptoms fortunately, but he had received his first dose of the vaccine 28 days prior to his positive test.


scrubbedexpat091 Jan 19th 2021 6:20 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Canada won't be receiving any Pfizer vaccines next week at all, this week will receive about 82% of what was expected.

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01...ment-deferred/

The US isn't affected by the Pfizer slow down, only countries who receive their supply from the Belgium facility are affected.

BristolUK Jan 19th 2021 6:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Tangram (Post 12961273)
Nurse in UK who had Covid in April got vaccine first dose 3 weeks ago. Just been taken to hospital with new strain symptoms.

Tough times ahead.

Reports from Israel suggest that the first dose may not be as effective as originally thought and that's without consideration of any new strains.

scrubbedexpat091 Jan 19th 2021 6:55 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by BristolUK (Post 12961300)
Reports from Israel suggest that the first dose may not be as effective as originally thought and that's without consideration of any new strains.

Government's can't say they were not warned by the manufacture's about relying on dose.

Strain circulating in So. California may be more resistant to the vaccines, but study is needed. A strain first identified in Denmark, but has increased from 3,8% of samples in November in LA area to 25% of samples into Dec and January.

California has also held back a specific bath of Moderna vaccine after San Diego area saw higher than anticipated allergic reactions from that specific batch.

https://deadline.com/2021/01/another...rk-1234675834/


As for the UK and SA strains, last i can find they think the vaccines may work, but more study is needed to confirm.

Danny B Jan 19th 2021 7:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
OMG, can you imagine the worldwide chaos that another strain going viral would cause if these current vaccines didn't work. Talk about banging your head on a wall.

scrubbedexpat091 Jan 19th 2021 8:15 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Danny B (Post 12961348)
OMG, can you imagine the worldwide chaos that another strain going viral would cause if these current vaccines didn't work. Talk about banging your head on a wall.

Hopefully the virus expert people will know soon.

A little concerning is just before Christmas it was reported in US media Walter Reed Medical Center researchers were examining the UK strain to determine vaccine effectiveness and should know within a few days, but then nothing else was reported beyond that from what I can find, and its been a month almost, just odd nothing was followed up on that by the media it seems.



Stumpylegs Jan 19th 2021 9:43 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Looks like the shelves are empty in the stock room of the new vaccination centre in Toronto - hope its a very temporary supply issue not a sign of things to come (although the UK vaccination numbers have started to tail off already)

Toronto vaccination centre to temporarily close

Shard Jan 19th 2021 10:44 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Some very good commentary from Prof Christina Pagel here (starts at 4:05)

- UK might be at peak deaths, cases coming down now, but hospitalisations rising
- hospitalisations double of wave 1 and a long way to go to get back down (another 8 weeks)
- lockdown necessary well beyond February because even if 70+ are vaccinated, 90% of cases are in below that age range
- younger (non-vaccinated) group is at risk of long covid, and further transmission time gives virus more chance to mutate
- NHS staff extremely stressed in wave 2


printer Jan 20th 2021 4:54 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Shard (Post 12961447)
Some very good commentary from Prof Christina Pagel here (starts at 4:05)

- UK might be at peak deaths, cases coming down now, but hospitalisations rising
- hospitalisations double of wave 1 and a long way to go to get back down (another 8 weeks)
- lockdown necessary well beyond February because even if 70+ are vaccinated, 90% of cases are in below that age range
- younger (non-vaccinated) group is at risk of long covid, and further transmission time gives virus more chance to mutate
- NHS staff extremely stressed in wave 2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LJIpuNPrQM

2021 is going to be a non event much like most of 2020 i feel. I won't be making any plans for some time to come. :thumbdown:

Shard Jan 20th 2021 5:24 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by printer (Post 12961522)
2021 is going to be a non event much like most of 2020 i feel. I won't be making any plans for some time to come. :thumbdown:

I'm not sure, we are in the thick of it now, but by early summer things may be very different. Nevertheless, I'm also holding off on making any plans.

scrubbedexpat091 Jan 20th 2021 5:52 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs (Post 12961410)
Looks like the shelves are empty in the stock room of the new vaccination centre in Toronto - hope its a very temporary supply issue not a sign of things to come (although the UK vaccination numbers have started to tail off already)

Toronto vaccination centre to temporarily close


Canada has a supply issue, but not at the fault of the government. Pfizer is pausing some production lines at their Belgium plant as they announced last week. Then today it was made known that next weeks order was deferred and Canada wont be receiving any, and then the first 2 weeks of February the deliveries will be roughly cut in half.


Hopefully J&J will be approved sometime in the next month, however their production has hit a snag and will be behind schedule so if approved in February may not see any until mid March to April.

Seems the US is about the only country not facing Pfizer delays, but they do have Pfizers largest or one of the largest manufacturing facilities so that helps.

Expatrick Jan 20th 2021 4:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
1820 UK deaths just reported.

BristolUK Jan 20th 2021 4:59 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12961831)
1820 UK deaths just reported.

How long before they get up to 2021? :sneaky: :lol:

Stumpylegs Jan 20th 2021 7:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12961532)
Canada has a supply issue, but not at the fault of the government. Pfizer is pausing some production lines at their Belgium plant as they announced last week. Then today it was made known that next weeks order was deferred and Canada wont be receiving any, and then the first 2 weeks of February the deliveries will be roughly cut in half.


Hopefully J&J will be approved sometime in the next month, however their production has hit a snag and will be behind schedule so if approved in February may not see any until mid March to April.

Seems the US is about the only country not facing Pfizer delays, but they do have Pfizers largest or one of the largest manufacturing facilities so that helps.

Yep, its hopefully a temporary closure to allow production ramp up - it is still a shame (completely understand though as the dry run/temporary opening allows them to identify teething issues etc).

Here is hoping UK deaths start to tail off - were 10 days since the peak of cases so hopefully a few days more and the worst of the death toll will begin to pass.

Siouxie Jan 21st 2021 4:40 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
Hope they all recover!

https://torontosun.com/news/local-ne...QFf1XdYWmm2XwY
All rows.

That’s how Health Canada described the impact of two Air Transat flights that landed in Montreal from Haiti this week, purportedly carrying so many infected passengers that everybody on board was at risk.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...html#wb-auto-5

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a8cba113eb.jpg

Danny B Jan 22nd 2021 6:31 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Siouxie (Post 12948219)
Virus's mutate and adapt, it's nothing new.. there are over 200 variations/mutations of Covid 19**. This adaptation / mutation is to allow it to spread more easily, however, there is nothing showing that it is more virulent in it's effect on people (i.e. it's not having any worse effect than the usual variety - people aren't getting more seriously ill than the more common variety), nor that it's causing more deaths. It's been in the UK since September! More hype to feed the hysteria that is boris.
There are similar mutations elsewhere in the world already :)

**Correction - as of July 2020 apparently there were a total of 1,234 mutations (and doubtless more since)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s10038-020-0808-9

Now that they have some data, Boris seems to think that the UK variant is more deadly than the original.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...warns-12195663



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