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-   -   Coronavirus (https://britishexpats.com/forum/maple-leaf-98/coronavirus-930602/)

Danny B Dec 21st 2020 8:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by BristolUK (Post 12948252)
If mask wearing and distancing merely reduces the chances of infection, rather than guarantees it - even ignoring where people are not doing it as they should - and because there are occasions where 6'/2m isn't enough, then for a version of it that is up to 70% more transmissible, masks are going to be a bit less effective and 6'/2m less likely to be as safe a distance than for the original version.

I'm not a scaremonger, nor am I an epidemiologist, but if it spreads to more people, more easily, it will increase total mortality as more people will become infected. If it increases viral load, you are more likely to get ill with it if you encounter someone shedding it.

I think a temporary UK travel ban is the right thing to do until new information becomes available. Right now, I feel as though we are reliving post #1 of this thread.

Siouxie Dec 21st 2020 8:06 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Danny B (Post 12948489)
I'm not a scaremonger, nor am I an epidemiologist, but if it spreads to more people, more easily, it will increase total mortality as more people will become infected. If it increases viral load, you are more likely to get ill with it if you encounter someone shedding it.

I think a temporary UK travel ban is the right thing to do until new information becomes available. Right now, I feel as though we are reliving post #1 of this thread.

That's not been proven yet, there's little scientific evidence that there is increased mortality from this variant.. there's so many varients, this is just one more... it's adapted to spread itself a little thinner and infect more people :D

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 21st 2020 8:14 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
We need COVID and it's variants to be more like its 4 cousins below, who cause mild symptoms in humans. Apparently only 7 Corona Viruses known to infect humans, 4 of the 7 are pretty harmless just causing mild symptoms, the other 3 being the ones that cause MERS, SARS and COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html
  1. 229E (alpha coronavirus)
  2. NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
  3. OC43 (beta coronavirus)
  4. HKU1 (beta coronavirus)


There is a virus expert in Washington State that was mentioned in an article a couple days ago, the new variants are changing the protein that both vaccines and antibody treatments are effective against, he didn't say the current vaccine wont work, but that the virus may eventually mutate in that direction, and boosters will be needed, how often only time will tell there.

BristolUK Dec 21st 2020 8:52 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Danny B (Post 12948489)
I'm not a scaremonger, nor am I an epidemiologist, but if it spreads to more people, more easily, it will increase total mortality as more people will become infected. If it increases viral load, you are more likely to get ill with it if you encounter someone shedding it.

I think a temporary UK travel ban is the right thing to do until new information becomes available. Right now, I feel as though we are reliving post #1 of this thread.


Originally Posted by Siouxie (Post 12948490)
That's not been proven yet, there's little scientific evidence that there is increased mortality from this variant.. there's so many varients, this is just one more... it's adapted to spread itself a little thinner and infect more people :D

I think what Danny meant was something like this - and these figures are completely made up for illustrative purposes.

Original covid might infect 100 people in a week, of which 2 die.
Mutated covid might infect 200 people in a week of whom 3 die.

Original covid has a death rate of 2/100 and the mutated version while infecting more people, more quickly, has a lower death rate of 1.5/100 but the total of people dying has not only increased but increased faster.

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 21st 2020 11:15 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Some improvement this past weekend over the weekend before. This past weekend saw a 23 per cent decrease in cases compared to the week prior, still had 1,667 new cases though over 3 days, and 41 deaths.

Hospitalizations down slightly, 341 people in hospital, with 80 patients in critical care. Number of active cases have decreased for the first time since the 2nd wave started.

According to the PHO "while B.C.'s curve is currently "levelling," it's at too high a plateau, with significant growth of new cases in the Interior and the north of B.C."

As of Friday 3,644 health care workers in the Lower Mainland have received a vaccine, and as of Monday all health authorities now have some vaccines to begin giving to healthcare workers.


They have not found any signs of the UK strain in BC yet.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...rmed-1.5850767

Stumpylegs Dec 21st 2020 11:38 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
For me, strict lock down in the UK, stay at home orders and completely postponing Christmas is the right thing to do - whilst I certainly have my doubts about the news of the strain being rolled out to explain away incompetence - regardless of whether it is a new strain or just out of control spread of already existing strains that have been spreading for months. We are potentially at a point where of the 5% that are highest risk, we could have a lot of them vaccinated in the coming few weeks (possibly quicker, as I would hope we respect the decisions of any terminally ill person who goes "I've only got 3-6 months, I've made my peace, pass my dose down the line" and would also think those that are very close to end of life, may not get offered it.

Suddenly we are halving mortality rates - which makes the whole thing a lot better

printer Dec 21st 2020 11:50 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Now South Africa are saying they have a new strain that is more contagious but NOT the same strain as in UK.
https://abcnews.go.com/International...gence-74838566

Teaandtoday5 Dec 22nd 2020 12:26 am

Re: Coronavirus
 


scrubbedexpat091 Dec 23rd 2020 12:44 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
A little good news in BC, we had the lowest single day case count since Nov 5th, but its a little concerning Interior Health and Vancouver Coastal Health had 78 and 79 cases. Vancouver Coastal Health covers 1.25 million people vs Interior Health with only 801,000.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...onth-1.5851806

4,108 people have received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in B.C. as of today.


scrubbedexpat091 Dec 23rd 2020 9:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Travel ban Canada put in place for the UK has been extended until January 6th, subject to being extended again of course.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7539542/c...da-travel-ban/

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 24th 2020 7:14 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
I wonder if its safe to take a CPR class, spending 2 8 hour days in a classroom with 15 other people.

I need to take a CPR class so I can reapply for the program at the school for May, been putting it off as I am worried about COVID and spending that much time in a small space with random people.

scrubbedexpat099 Dec 25th 2020 12:13 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12949618)
I wonder if its safe to take a CPR class, spending 2 8 hour days in a classroom with 15 other people.

I need to take a CPR class so I can reapply for the program at the school for May, been putting it off as I am worried about COVID and spending that much time in a small space with random people.

I would not sweat it.

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 26th 2020 7:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Interesting article on approaches over the year in various provinces and varying success.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/u...explosion.html

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 26th 2020 8:22 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
UK strain has arrived in Canada. The people it was confirmed in had no travel history and no connection to anyone who travelled.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7542830/ontario-canada-first-cases-uk-coronavirus-variant/?utm_source=GlobalNews&utm_medium=Facebook&fbclid= IwAR1HrgrYfV0QWv8I_6DOpnxA_-HifmJlWyUHCm24TbA1q9vgQgCFTV2HUuI

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/12/26/two-cases-of-uk-covid-19-variant-confirmed-in-ontario/

Stumpylegs Dec 27th 2020 1:48 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12950023)
UK strain has arrived in Canada.

You're as bad as Donald Trump calling it the "Chinese virus":lol:

It was found here in mid September at the latest - so guessing its probably everywhere now (even some rumours that it could have started in the US).

Rather different messages both sides of the pond now - UK aiming to vaccinate the 25% or so of the country at risk by end of Feb and talking about normality around lockdowns etc. in early spring (mask wearing to be expecting throughout the summer, but travel, socialising etc back). Canada seems to be saying until the world is vaccinated it may need its borders to remain closed.


Revin Kevin Dec 27th 2020 3:51 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs (Post 12950251)
You're as bad as Donald Trump calling it the "Chinese virus":lol:

It was found here in mid September at the latest - so guessing its probably everywhere now (even some rumours that it could have started in the US).

Rather different messages both sides of the pond now - UK aiming to vaccinate the 25% or so of the country at risk by end of Feb and talking about normality around lockdowns etc. in early spring (mask wearing to be expecting throughout the summer, but travel, socialising etc back). Canada seems to be saying until the world is vaccinated it may need its borders to remain closed.

Yeah I noticed that, why they are calling it the UK virus even though it was first found in Denmark?

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 27th 2020 3:54 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
ER doctor in NB shares her story of their covid experience.

The doctor herself never tested positive or got sick.

At the time her husband got sick there were only 2 known cases in their health zone.

Public health believes her husband caught it in the community but no idea where. Contact tracing couldn't link his movements to other cases.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...emic-1.5854124

bats Dec 27th 2020 3:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12949618)
I wonder if its safe to take a CPR class, spending 2 8 hour days in a classroom with 15 other people.

I need to take a CPR class so I can reapply for the program at the school for May, been putting it off as I am worried about COVID and spending that much time in a small space with random people.

Are they actually holding any classes right now? You won't be the only one so contact the school and see what provisions are being made.

caretaker Dec 27th 2020 3:56 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Revin Kevin (Post 12950315)
Yeah I noticed that, why they are calling it the UK virus even though it was first found in Denmark?

Because that's how it was presented in the news:
Sweden is mentioned 9 hits down.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=virus+muta...=v239-1&ia=web

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 27th 2020 4:23 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by bats (Post 12950319)
Are they actually holding any classes right now? You won't be the only one so contact the school and see what provisions are being made.

Yes they are holding classes.

The precautions they have in place are:

- Each person has to fill out a self assessment form asking if they have covid or symptoms of covid or been in contact with someone who has.
- Wearing face masks
- Washing hands at start of class, before and after skills sessions.
-Wearing gloves during skills sessions.




scrubbedexpat091 Dec 27th 2020 4:54 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs (Post 12950251)
You're as bad as Donald Trump calling it the "Chinese virus":lol:

It was found here in mid September at the latest - so guessing its probably everywhere now (even some rumours that it could have started in the US).

Rather different messages both sides of the pond now - UK aiming to vaccinate the 25% or so of the country at risk by end of Feb and talking about normality around lockdowns etc. in early spring (mask wearing to be expecting throughout the summer, but travel, socialising etc back). Canada seems to be saying until the world is vaccinated it may need its borders to remain closed.


I just used the name the media in Canada was using...

Stumpylegs Dec 27th 2020 6:37 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12950355)
I just used the name the media in Canada was using...

I know, it was purely said in jest.

Same as we now have the south african strain, I don't necessarily think it started in Johannesburg, but it was discovered or traced back to their at some point.

Vaccinations are really starting to ramp up now, think within a couple of weeks we should be seeing more vaccinations than we officially have had cases in both the UK and the US, and surely as vaccinations begin to outpace cases fairly rapidly, then it may all start to die out fairly quickly.

The other thing is i cant help but feel if herd immunity exists, and if figures/estimations are accurate - we must be getting damn close to this thing slowing down(700,000 people in the UK estimated to have caught it in the week before Christmas,up from 650,000ish the week before add that to the 100,000 a day they estimate being infected in March at times - seems hard to imagine that it can keep growing as surely a sizeable chunk of the UK has had it. (remembering stories from April/May that 8% of London had already had COVID etc - must be up from that number significantly)

bats Dec 27th 2020 6:52 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12950335)
Yes they are holding classes.

The precautions they have in place are:

- Each person has to fill out a self assessment form asking if they have covid or symptoms of covid or been in contact with someone who has.
- Wearing face masks
- Washing hands at start of class, before and after skills sessions.
-Wearing gloves during skills sessions.

ask them if the 2m distance is maintained throughout. Any class I've ever had involves class participation with ResusAnnie, " The doll, with two people working on her at a time. - which must be their "skills sessions, If they're modified the class and the 2m is maintained I'd go if I weren't in a vulnerable category. I'd take my own hand sanitiser too.

scrubbedexpat099 Dec 27th 2020 9:14 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Beverly Hills celebrity hangout caught planning ‘secret’ NYE party

https://nypost.com/2020/12/27/celebrity-hangout-caught-planning-secret-nye-party/

Anybody get an invite?

printer Dec 27th 2020 9:49 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
This is a pretty interesting figure if it is 100% accurate. The Sun has an article claiming that only 388 people without any underlying conditions under age 60 have died in this pandemic in the UK. And as a total death count i quote from the article:A total of 47,749 died from coronavirus in hospitals across England between April 2 and December 23, according to NHS England.

Of these, 45,770 had known underlying health conditions, while 1,979 were considered to be previously healthy.

That's a lot of people with additional health issues.

BristolUK Dec 27th 2020 9:50 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Boiler (Post 12950408)
Anybody get an invite?

Me


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...370e2e50f5.jpg


scrubbedexpat099 Dec 27th 2020 10:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by printer (Post 12950420)
This is a pretty interesting figure if it is 100% accurate. The Sun has an article claiming that only 388 people without any underlying conditions under age 60 have died in this pandemic in the UK. And as a total death count i quote from the article:A total of 47,749 died from coronavirus in hospitals across England between April 2 and December 23, according to NHS England.

Of these, 45,770 had known underlying health conditions, while 1,979 were considered to be previously healthy.

That's a lot of people with additional health issues.

Seems to tie in with the US experience

scrubbedexpat099 Dec 27th 2020 10:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by BristolUK (Post 12950421)

You might want to check, think it may have been cancelled.

BristolUK Dec 27th 2020 11:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by printer (Post 12950420)
This is a pretty interesting figure if it is 100% accurate. The Sun has an article claiming that only 388 people without any underlying conditions under age 60 have died in this pandemic in the UK. And as a total death count i quote from the article:A total of 47,749 died from coronavirus in hospitals across England between April 2 and December 23, according to NHS England.

Of these, 45,770 had known underlying health conditions, while 1,979 were considered to be previously healthy.

That's a lot of people with additional health issues.

So, what's that, 388 out of 47749. I make that about 0.8% with no known health issues.

A quick google shows the regular claim of 6% in attempts to downplay the seriousness of Covid and other suggestions up to 25%. :unsure:

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 28th 2020 12:03 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
The UK but may have originated elsewhere variant has been found in BC.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/mobile/b-c-ide...dent-1.5246016

Person arrived in BC on Air Canada flight 855 on Dec 15.

It doesn't appear BC was checking for this strain and they found this person as they went back and reviewed positive tests in the last few weeks to check with travel history.






Stumpylegs Dec 28th 2020 12:21 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by printer (Post 12950420)
This is a pretty interesting figure if it is 100% accurate. The Sun has an article claiming that only 388 people without any underlying conditions under age 60 have died in this pandemic in the UK. And as a total death count i quote from the article:A total of 47,749 died from coronavirus in hospitals across England between April 2 and December 23, according to NHS England.

Of these, 45,770 had known underlying health conditions, while 1,979 were considered to be previously healthy.

That's a lot of people with additional health issues.

It's a bit of an odd one, I think in some ways it is completely right and could well be accurate - the trouble is things like asthma, high blood pressure etc. will likely make up a large portion of those 45,770 - which suddenly means a lot of people going "I'm fine, I'm healthy" would be lumped in the 45,770.

Siouxie Dec 28th 2020 3:27 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs (Post 12950454)
It's a bit of an odd one, I think in some ways it is completely right and could well be accurate - the trouble is things like asthma, high blood pressure etc. will likely make up a large portion of those 45,770 - which suddenly means a lot of people going "I'm fine, I'm healthy" would be lumped in the 45,770.

The NHS post details of those at risk from 'underlying risks' - high and moderate..
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...m-coronavirus/


You may be at high risk from coronavirus if you:
  • have had an organ transplant
  • are having chemotherapy or antibody treatment for cancer, including immunotherapy
  • are having an intense course of radiotherapy (radical radiotherapy) for lung cancer
  • are having targeted cancer treatments that can affect the immune system (such as protein kinase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors)
  • have blood or bone marrow cancer (such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma)
  • have had a bone marrow or stem cell transplant in the past 6 months, or are still taking immunosuppressant medicine
  • have been told by a doctor you have a severe lung condition (such as cystic fibrosis, severe asthma or severe COPD)
  • have a condition that means you have a very high risk of getting infections (such as SCID or sickle cell)
  • are taking medicine that makes you much more likely to get infections (such as high doses of steroids or immunosuppressant medicine)
  • have a serious heart condition and are pregnant
  • have a problem with your spleen or your spleen has been removed (splenectomy)
  • are an adult with Down's syndrome
  • are an adult who is having dialysis or has severe (stage 5) long-term kidney disease
  • have been classed as clinically extremely vulnerable, based on clinical judgement and an assessment of your needs


People at moderate risk from coronavirus include people who:
  • are 70 or older
  • have a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis)
  • have heart disease (such as heart failure)
  • have diabetes
  • have chronic kidney disease
  • have liver disease (such as hepatitis)
  • have a condition affecting the brain or nerves (such as Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis or cerebral palsy)
  • have a condition that means they have a high risk of getting infections
  • are taking medicine that can affect the immune system (such as low doses of steroids)
  • are very obese (a BMI of 40 or above)
  • are pregnant – see advice about pregnancy and coronavirus
Unlike people at high risk, you will not get a letter from the NHS.

Stumpylegs Dec 28th 2020 5:34 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Siouxie (Post 12950631)
The NHS post details of those at risk from 'underlying risks' - high and moderate..
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...m-coronavirus/

Magic, wonder if that is the same list they use for the underlying conditions for deaths.

Supposedly just had our darkest day (yet) for COVID figures, wouldnt surprise me if we are seeing 75,000 a day in the next week or 2.

scrubbedexpat099 Dec 29th 2020 12:59 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
Now we have people fleeing Switzerland. Hard to work out what the next story will be.

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 29th 2020 1:28 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Stumpylegs (Post 12950251)
You're as bad as Donald Trump calling it the "Chinese virus":lol:

It was found here in mid September at the latest - so guessing its probably everywhere now (even some rumours that it could have started in the US).

Rather different messages both sides of the pond now - UK aiming to vaccinate the 25% or so of the country at risk by end of Feb and talking about normality around lockdowns etc. in early spring (mask wearing to be expecting throughout the summer, but travel, socialising etc back). Canada seems to be saying until the world is vaccinated it may need its borders to remain closed.


Vancouver Sun is calling it Mutant COVID-19 but still mentioned the flight from the UK to Vancouver the asymptomatic passenger was on.

https://vancouversun.com/news/first-...k-to-vancouver

scrubbedexpat091 Dec 29th 2020 1:50 am

Re: Coronavirus
 

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 (Post 12950012)
Interesting article on approaches over the year in various provinces and varying success.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/u...explosion.html

My copy and paste failed, obviously not the correct link.

dave_j Dec 29th 2020 2:26 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
Hmmmmm.....
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...lout-1.5855692

sid nv Dec 29th 2020 2:52 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
My 93-year old mum cheerfully tells me she is not bothered about getting Covid. For the last 23 years she has been reminding us that her funeral arrangements are all made, and the details are in the blue folder behing the WW1 shell casing near the fireplace.
I think she is a bit miffed that a vaccine is now coming along, and she will have to carry on.


scrubbedexpat091 Dec 30th 2020 1:29 am

Re: Coronavirus
 
BC takes weekends and holidays off, so these numbers are over a 5 day period.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...r-29-1.5856669

2,206 new cases and 74 deaths.

Record high 373 people are in hospital, including 80 in intensive care.

56 active outbreaks in long-term care and eight in acute care.


11,930 people have been vaccinated so far.

7 day average has been trending downward but there is concern that people have chosen not to get tested over the holidays, and not necessarily less people with COVID.


Revin Kevin Dec 30th 2020 2:32 pm

Re: Coronavirus
 
Interesting stats;
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6ee568e2a6.jpg


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