Re: Coronavirus
 

My MIL went for a blood test at the hospital today. At screening there was a woman up close and the screener asked her to move back. She also told the woman she'd need a mask to come in.

"I don't need to, I'm not scared" was the reply.

Where has this woman been for the last 6 months? :confused:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not sure I would want to be a teacher right now.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...race-1.5733700

Active cases down 522 in BC, new cases 96.

Almost all of the decline in active cases was in Vancouver Coastal Health

https://globalnews.ca/news/7351585/b...-september-22/

Re: Coronavirus
 

And if I recall correctly the bulk of the Interior Health cases were in and around Kelowna, with not many elsewhere in the health authority.

Re: Coronavirus
 

"Gaming" is being unreasonably charitable IMO - I would say "flouting". :nod:

Re: Coronavirus
 

The ones they had in Oliver came down from the first party in Kelowna.
In Finland, they're starting to use dogs to sniff out the virus at the main airport, (the UAE began using them in the summer).
https://globalnews.ca/news/7352860/c...-dogs-finland/

Re: Coronavirus
 

And that party wasn't it visitors from the lower mainland who brought it with them? I seem to recall anyhow it was linked to lower mainland visitors who initially spread it.

Fraser Health & Vancouver Health are certainly the hot spots, but of course they are both pretty large population wise when compared to every other health authority region.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I see your 96 new cases and raise you 6178 new cases in the UK. Ok, our population is about 13X larger, so adjusted we are 475...!!

Re: Coronavirus
 

It really is about time the expression second wave was accepted as reality.

At the beginning of the month (on TIO's covid thread) I posted about how mid August new daily figures were running about 450 and then had quickly doubled, followed by a week later the UK kept posting new highest new case figures repeatedly as if there was a consistent new high. And that was around 2900.

Now the UK is announcing over 6000 which is 13 times that of mid August. Does 13 times not count as second wave?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Never mind the raw numbers - look at the graphs. The covid-19 pandemic has produced some wonderful curves and patterns, and it is both interesting that the data confirms to curves, but also a bit scary that the curves chart there own path - if you're on an up-curve it takes time to slow things down and level them off, and longer to turn them back down again.

Here is yesterday's UK chart from Worldometer, and with another 6,200 case today, the curve is clearly heading sharply higher, and given the slope of the curve it is pretty much inevitable that the numbers will reach 7,500 before there is an inflection point (lessening of the gradient of the curve) and an inflection point at 7,500 would still likely mean that daily infections in the UK will reach 10,000/day before they level off.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3999e84537.jpg

There's data for every country here, and each country has a page of date and graphs.

FWIW with India currently reporting around 90,000 new cases daily, and the US reprorting around 35,000 new cases daily, it appears that India will surpass the US at the top of the table in around 3-4 weeks, barring a major change in the number of new infections reported daily by one or both countries.

Re: Coronavirus
 

See post #1746

Re: Coronavirus
 

86 new cases, but active cases dropped by 89.

Hospitalizations remaining stable, no new deaths.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7354301/b...-september-23/

Re: Coronavirus
 

Interesting that on last nights news at ten they were touting the "possible" outcome of 50,000 new case a day if left unchecked in UK according to some modelling, which we know can be pretty inaccurate sometimes yet they were predicting deaths could be up to 200 a day which is about a fifth of what they were during the height of the initial wave. So why are the death predictions much lower than previous with that infection figure?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Among the reasons are:

[1] Better treaments have been developed, including use of dexamethasone, a corticosteroid, and a better understanding of when to use ventilators, of which there is now a plentiful supply
[2] Younger, otherwise healthier people are now the bulk of those catching the disease, so they don't get as sick, and are in less danger of dying
[3] The spread of the disease is better understood, and those that are most vulnerable are being better protected, so not catching the disease.
[4] The oldest and sickest have already died in the first wave.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is important to consider the rise in cases against the huge rise in number of tests. I suspect the real number of actual cases of infection earlier on in the pandemic was way, way higher than the number of "confirmed diagnosed" tests. Remember, the government did have an interest in keeping numbers low so as to appear in control. There were countless stories of people with suspected infections being denied tests.

Rather than a second wave, perhaps the testing & diagnosing is simply just beginning to reflect what was always the situation.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We seem to be at the base of the second wave. I suppose it depends on how many more days weeks the high (rising?) case count persists. It's clearly why the government has suddenly decided to tighten up rules on congregation and travel.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That may or may not be the case regarding the April figures, but it's clear that the level of infections in September is rising rapidly on August. Eat out, back to work, off to Bournmout during a pandemic - who knew ?!! Whether the rise in infections is deemed a "wave" or not is less important than surpressing that rise. Ultimately, it's only the hispitalization and death figures which are accurate in assessing the extent of infection. From what they have been saying this week, hospitalizations are rising too.

Those sceptical of Coronavirus preventitive measures need only look to the USA: a masterclass in transmission.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I keep reading that people are having difficulty getting tested in the UK. It's quite hard to say either way, especially with those earlier reports that counted test kits sent out as tests made.

I don't doubt there has been an increase in tested since the earlier days but I'm not sure increased testing would account for the daily new case figures of 1000 in mid August rising to yesterday's 6000.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Thats another side to it, which will happen strict lockdown or not, unless it gets properly policed, but that would require a properly resourced police force.

I was more referring to those folk who have 3 kids so can't have another couple over for drinks on a friday night, but instead get a babysitter into the house, then go out to the pub with another 2 couples. all above board! but creating much more mixing. Not going to try and guess percentages but think a lot of folk won't really break the rules, but will push the workarounds not really thinking of the COVID impact just using the "but its allowed" reasoning.

Re: Coronavirus
 

148 cases today in BC, goes up and down everyday.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...2020-1.5737823

2 additional deaths.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Time to start panic buying vitamin D3 supplements.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-find-12081132

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's a bit late, the potential advantages were in the news several weeks ago. There are several reports back to June, perhaps earlier.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Been taking 1000 iu daily for years, and have enough for about a year and a half in reserve. It's good for bone health and depression as well. Apparently vitamin K really boosts the benefits, but it's seems a bit costy so I haven't bought any.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I bought a 2 pack last night from Costco. Only $6.99 for 320 tabs in each bottle. Should last the Wife and I almost one year.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Small outbreak in Kelowna linked to a church, only 4 cases so far it seems.

First faith based outbreak in Interior region.

Re: Coronavirus
 

They must be doing it right in the Sikh temples because that accounts for a lot of people in the southern OK, and so far no outbreaks.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Heard the question about a third wave today ! CV could certainly be with us for some time by the sounds of things. There certainly seem to enough Covidiots about.

Re: Coronavirus
 

491 cases announced for yesterday in Ontario.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I agree. It was clear from the outset that the "rules" were not clearly explained and that most people (Canada, US, UK, and presumably all other countries) were not able to understand why the rules were in place, and that they were the barest minimum restrictions. While there are plenty of people who have no intention of following any pandemic rules, I think it was a mistake to issue "bare" rules, without accompanying explanations and guidance - distances greater than 6ft are preferred and that the minimum number of people should put themselves at risk.

It was obvious to me, that while 6ft was the prescribed measure for social distancing, that 10ft was better and 20ft better still, and that any errand that can be done alone should be, so going shopping as a couple or family should be avoided. And yet many people still seem to think that the requirement is "upto 6ft", not "at least 6ft", and I see plenty of couples and families out shopping. It also seems to be that people think that mask wearing is an alternative to social distancing, rather than providing additional protection and should be used primarily to enhance your protection not reduce physical separation.

I am still doing almost all the family shopping alone, shopping around 8am when the grocery is nearly empty. Mrs P made an experimental foray to Walmart a few weeks ago, and found the place to be chaotic, with little attention to social distancing and the mask rules widely flouted - including one man who entered just ahead of her who was told to wear and mask and given one to put on, who then just walked a few feet before removing it and throwing it on the floor. :rolleyes: Mrs P has not been back to Walmart.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Academics may determine when the pandemic ended, using historic data, but in reality there won't be a sudden end, the numbers will decline, and the restrictions fade away, but it is likely that there will be periodic resurgences for years to come.

The lack of an effective vaccine and/or widespread reluctance to receive the vaccine, will delay the decline to low levels beyond what is already likely to be a minimum 1-2 years from today.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If a vaccine is developed and works, will be interesting to see how government's give it.

To vaccine about 1/2 of the population in Canada in a year requires a rate of 1,583,333 per month. (estimate)

The government isn't likely to require it, and hard to say how many will get it.

Will they just have central vaccination points people drive through, or distribute through pharmacies and clinics like the flu shot and other vaccines......

Shall be interesting to see how its all done if the time comes.

Other then a vague 2021, who knows if/when a vaccine will be available in Canada anyhow, I have a feeling we wont be one of the first countries to receive it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

for me the vaccine bit is something people are being over optimistic about.

A flu vaccine hasn't eliminated the Flu - we already know this virus has mutations and varying strains, much like the flu. Whilst flu deaths could be reduced if everyone vaccinated it's not going anywhere.

I don't believe a virus in its infancy like this will be responsive to a vaccine - at which point we have to ask is travel a thing of the past, or do we accept the risks it brings? ( less of an issue for the UK and the US as with such high infection rates, someone on a plane from New Zealand is less likely to be carrying it than Dave down the pub) in a similar vein do rural communities within Canada look at those from the big cities as the infected ones when they stop in town.

Are we all wearing masks and shopping the bare minimum and not kissing strangers in pubs(if that's your thing) for the next 5-10 years??.

Re: Coronavirus
 

An epidemiologist on TV today did indeed call into question when things may get back to normal. The chilling phrase was "...if ever". :unsure:

I suppose masks, travel restrictions, targetted lockdowns will persist for at least 2021. No fun.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It is interesting to hear the latest thoughts, but in fact the predictions haven't changed significantly since the pandemic was originally declared back in March, that it will be 2-3 years (as of a March 2020) before things can "return to normal" irrespective of whether a vaccine is developed or not.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Another missed tourism year in BC is going to be painful, will be interesting to see how the government deals with it, other sectors are not big enough or growing fast enough to absorb all the jobs lost in the tourism and travel sector.

If not for the wage subsidy program, a lot more companies would have laid people off, but that wont last forever, and the government is reducing the subsidy as well, Westjet say's their employees on the wage subsidy will see a 53% decrease in pay to $400 something a week. I guess its better than being laid off altogether but Westjet has no actual work for these workers so most are staying home.

Air Canada decided to go the other route and just lay off nearly 50% of their workers rather than deal with the wage subsidy program since they had no work for the workers.

While BC has gained some jobs since this began in March, we have still lost more than has been gained back, so its not pretty out there if your in need of a job.

Re: Coronavirus
 

For this reason, and for the first time in 18+ months of the the immigration process. I am actually starting to consider whether my move to Canada is a viable one at all, or whether I should just forget it and stay in the UK.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Probably the same as H1N1 but with lessons learned.

We need optimism so as to encourage the various safeguards.
From previous discussions here, effectiveness of flu jabs has been between 40 and 80%, mostly at the upper end., so usually more than 50% successful.
Currently the UK has a bit over 6000 cases per million. Or one in ten thousand if my maths is good.

If the effectiveness of the vaccine was similar to flu that would lower the one in ten thousand to one in twenty thousand or less. I think that would be quite good if taken in sufficient numbers of course.

Re: Coronavirus
 

6,000 per 1,000,000 = 6 per 1,000 = 1 per 167 = 0.6%.

What I haven't see yet is any breakdown over time of how many infections there have been, and how/ where they occured, say by month, or even by quarter, as early on, precautions were haphazard and the disease ran rampant in care homes, whereas AFAIK care homes have been much less of a factor in the new wave of infections. So the controls and restrictions that shut down the first wave may not be effective in bringing the second wave to an end.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It definitely beats a kick in the gonads that's for sure, but a lot of people think the vaccine will be some sort of kill switch.

Truth be told each year the flu vaccine is adjusted to try and combat the most prevalent strains of the flu that year. some years it bob on, other years its not quite as effective (whether that's an aggressive strain of the flu, or a vaccine that was more effective against a less common strain that year who knows), coupled with that folk who get the vaccine do still die from the flu - we've got to see a) will this vaccine be efffective against the strains out there at launch (being effective against the most aggressive strain is a winner) b) how effective it is outside of the small trials currently being done (different ages, those with underlying health conditions, differences in ethnicity etc) c) how long it is effective for.

All this means that COVID will still be here for some time, Herd immunity may well be a factor for the US/UK before a vaccine is.

In other COVID news, seen the 10pm rush hour that is now present in the UK on Friday and Saturday nights!! not sure its better or worse than everyone drinking to the wee hours.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's a bit like the old last orders rush.

I see some of the football kick off times have been brought forward because people leaving the pub at 10.00 pm would miss the end of the match on TV.

Priorities eh? :lol:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Also doesn't help when a so called medical professional does something like this, resulting in 26 deaths.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7342066/l...leaked-report/