NCR llockdown

Old Nov 19th 2022, 11:24 pm
  #1906  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 652 fewer cases announced at 1,122. Latest testing down for the third day running to 12.1k individuals.
Active 18,864, down 403.

Location detail

NCR cases down to 285, 25% of all cases. QC 56, Manila 48.

CL down 39 to 92...Bulacan 25, Tarlac 20.
4A down 87 to 149...Cavite 46, Rizal 41.

These 3 regions with a higher 47% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

CAR down 40 to 52 Baguio City 23
Ilocos 47
Cagayan 85
Bicol 24

Visayas cases down by 122 to 211
WV and CV each with 101 cases.
Cebu City 43, Bacolod City 20.

Mindanao cases down by 151 to 167,
SOCCSK well up to 60, NM 43.
CDO, Davao, GenSan, Iligan, Zamboanga cities all with single digit reports.

A worthwhile review in a recent SS newsletter on the Philippine covid pandemic.
" The Pandemic is over...single digit daily deaths..." November 18.
https://supersally.substack.com/

She looks at other features but one useful chart rams home a point I have been making here about DOH covid death reports and why I don't report their daily figures.


To be fair the DOH do have a daily chart showing deaths by date of occurrence.
The latest one:



But few members of the public will know or bother to look at it. To be fair again to the DOH they give a weekly total on their weekly Bulletin report and reputable online sites and newspapers usually add details about the dates of these deaths. But the general public do not know how low they are now...and how high they were in the second half of last year.

Is this one of the ways the DOH hope to maintain the "Calamity" legislation, as SS suggests?

Weekly Report tomorrow.


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Old Nov 20th 2022, 11:38 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 59 fewer cases reported at 1,063. Latest testing on Saturday well down to 10.9k.
Active 18,647, down 217.

Location detail

NCR 30 down at 255 and 24% of total cases. QC 47, Manila 34.

CL a little down at 89.....Bulacan 25, Tarlac 22.
4A similarly at 142.....Cavite 44, Rizal 42, Laguna 35

These 3 regions 46% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up at 66. Baguio City 34.
Ilocos 41
Cagayan 53
Bicol 28

Visayas cases up 34 at 245...WV 76, CV 97.
Cebu City 37

Mindanao cases down a little to 161.
Zamboanga City with the highest report of its main cities at 18 cases.


Weekly report

National cases up a little at 7% on last week (+23%).

NCR cases up 6% (+18%)
But quite a large variation between its 6 biggest cities:

Pasig +35%
Manila +20
Caloocan +2
Taguig 0
Paranaque -4
QC -6

CL up 4% (+12%)...Bulacan down 21%, Pampanga down 19%, Tarlac up 29%, N Ecija up 33%.
Cavite up 12%, Laguna 0%, Rizal up 55%, Batangas up 21%.

Elsewhere

CAR no change
Ilocos down 3%
Cagayan up 45%
Bicol up 19%

Visayas cases up 8% (+17%)
WV no change
CV up 12%
Cebu City up 12%

Mindanao cases down 8% (+26%).
Major cities either constant or down.

Unclear whether there is the beginning of a new wave, however small, or these are delayed cases from the early days of the month. But the large rise in two of the largest NCR cities and in some provinces outside the NCR, notably Cavite, Rizal and Cagayan suggests the former is more likely. Some areas in CV also with case rises but in Mindanao cases are falling. However the falling numbers of tests conducted in certified labs is making it more difficult to assess the next direction for virus case growth.

The latest video from Dr John:is about the effectiveness of natural and hybrid immunity against SARS 2 Omicron re-infection:






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Old Nov 21st 2022, 10:11 pm
  #1908  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Following low Saturday testing national cases yesterday announced at only 938. Sunday testing down more to 8.3k.
Active 18,179,down 468.

Location detail

NCR down 60 to 195 and only 21% of all cases. QC 40, Manila 32.

CL down to 67...Bulacan 16, Tarlac 14.
4A up 2 to 144...Cavite up to 52, Laguna to 45, Rizal down to 23, Batangas 17.

These 3 regions at a lower 43% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 35
Ilocos 48
Cagayan 60
Bicol 34

Visayas cases down 53 to 192...WV up to 84, CV down to 91.
Cebu City 33.

Mindanao cases down 6 to 155.
NM up to 45, Zamboanga region up to 30.
Only Zamboanga City in double figures at 12.

DOH weekly bulletin
From the Manila Times.

Cases down 12% (+43%)
Deaths 93...28 in November, 1 October.
Hospital admissions 2 (6)
Admitted 568 (613)
ICU 20.9% (21.3%)
Non ICU 23.1% (25.8%)

OCTA reports positivity rising in some areas.
Citing the weather and new variants as possible explanations.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...ca37581397dab9

My weekly analysis had Tarlac cases up 29%, following a 39% increase in the previous week.
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Old Nov 22nd 2022, 9:47 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a very low 695 cases. Lowest daily total since Oct 31. Latest testing up to only 10.9k.
Active 17,550, down 629

Location detail

NCR down to 212, but a higher 31% of all cases. Manila 42, QC 41. The largest 6 cities with a higher than usual 67% of cases.

CL 55 cases....Bulacan 25, Pampanga 10.
4A 115 cases.....Cavite 48, Rizal 36.

Elsewhere

CAR up 2 to 37
Ilocos 38
Cagayan 21
Bicol 8

Visayas cases down to 114......WV 61, CV 43.
Cebu City 11

Mindanao cases down to 91.....NM 28, Davao region 24.
Davao City 5.

Dr J Campbell's latest video again looking at excess deaths. Focus on heart disease, Australia and UK :


The UK's ONS on additional heart disease deaths.
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Old Nov 23rd 2022, 10:31 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A similarly low daily total to that announced on Tuesday at 703. Latest testing on that day up 3k to 13.9k.
Active 17,049, down 501.

Location detail

NCR down 45 to 167 and a lower 24% of all cases. QC 25, Manila 19.

CL up to 82...Tarlac 44, N Ecija 12, Bulacan 10.
4A down 20 to 95....Cavite 33, Laguna 25, Rizal 19, batangas 15.

Elsewhere

CAR 16
Ilocos 42
Cagayan 28
Bicol 24

Visayas reports up 28 to 142...WV up 25 to 86, CV 43.
Cebu City 16

Mindanao cases down 21 to 70.
Davao City 6


Dr John in his latest video comments on the CDC sticking to its vaccination advice despite its own data suggesting otherwise.
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Old Nov 23rd 2022, 11:33 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

With a large proportion of the population vaccinated sure there's a good chance anyone in hospital would have been vaccinated.
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Old Nov 24th 2022, 12:17 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

I checked the Medscape summary. It says."hospitalized with covid". It would be clearer if they had said "for" rather than "with". But it is clear to me (and Dr John as he has been pointing out the difference a lot in the past) they're not including hospitalizations for other reasons where covid is an incidental finding.

My take on this is to note the very high proportion of the US population with either one or two comorbidities. Reducing the effects of Omicron BA2 being a milder disease and the good protection level supposed to be got from boosters. Must be a big factor.

At 9am checked You tube and the video has been taken down.

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Old Nov 24th 2022, 9:50 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 438 more cases over Wednesday's total at 1,141. Latest testing down 0.7k to 13.2k.
Active 17,393, up 344

Location detail

NCR nearly doubled its case total to 321. QC 60, Manila 51.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...547ddaf1fe6600


CL down 21 to 61.....Bulacan 24, Pampanga and Tarlac each 12.
4A up 50 to 145....Rizal 45, Laguna 42, Cavite 34

These 3 regions with a lower 46% of all cases.

Visayas cases up by 83 to 225...WV 96, CV 99.
Cebu City 25, Bacolod City 23.

Mindanao cases up 117 to 187
Davao region 44, NM 32.
Single figures for all main cities except Zamboanga 12.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63739617

China with another surge. The numbers, yesterday 4k, not significant but its measures are.

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Old Nov 25th 2022, 11:32 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday new cases announced at 1,353...a 312 increase over Thursday's total. Latest testing down again. By 0.7k to 12.5k.
Active 17.945, up 552.

Location detail

NCR up 138 to 459 and at a higher 34% of all cases. QC 102, Manila 85.

CL up 38 to 97....Bulacan 47, Pampanga 12, Bataan 12.
4A up 35 to 180......Cavite 65, Laguna 48, Rizal 43.

These 3 regions with a higher 54% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 51 to 111
Ilocos up 21 to 74
Cagayan up 52 to 80
Bicol 13

Visayas reports down 64 at 161.
WV down 46 to 50.
CV stable at 97.
Cebu City 26

Mindanao cases down 16 to 171.
NM 50, Davao region 51.
CDO City 25, Davao City 15, Zamboanga City 15.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...detected-in-ph

A worrisome subvariant of BA.5 which is growing at a fast rate elsewhere in the world.. A matter of guesswork here as genome sampling is minimal. But the experts seem to think it is behind the rise in cases recently seen in parts of the country, notably the NCR and provinces around. Also in some N Luzon regions.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/bq-11-covi...A1e_SAHj5_B3kk

Dr John Campbell has gone into overdrive and put out 2 new videos yesterday:


While saying nothing about his video on the same issue of waning vaccination effectiveness, which disappeared from Youtube after a few hours yesterday, he has found this US study published in the Washington Post.


More on the disputed origin of SARS Cor2, if you're following it. As he says, if it's in The Telegraph we should take it seriously.

Due to a large amount of other viewing lined up today (!) I haven't been through these new videos yet. Will do so soon and may comment again on them.

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Old Nov 26th 2022, 11:20 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Over 500 more cases announced yesterday than on Friday... at 1,874, Latest testing down again. By 0.4k to 12.1k.
Active 18,348, up 403.

Location detail

NCR up 77 to 536. But a lower 29% of all cases. Manila 94, QC 86, Taguig 58.

CL 60 more to 157......Bulacan 64, Tarlac 32, N Ecija 25.
4A 45 more to 225......Cavite 77, Laguna 57, Rizal 55.

These 3 regions with a lower 49% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 27 to 138
Ilocos 76
Cagayan up 24 to 104
Bicol up 32 to 45.

Visayas cases more than doubled to 326.
WV 66 more to 116.
CV 44 more to 141
Bacolod City 32, Cebu City 43, IloIlo City 6.

Mindanao cases up 95 to 266.
NM 63, Davao region highest this week to 72. SOCCSK also at 53.
CDO City 23, Zamboanga City 12, Davao City down to 2. Iligan City 1, GenSan City 0.


In case you missed his video on the US Senate report on Covid SARS2 viral origins the video Dr John put up yesterday also contains a good summary of the evidence there pointing to a Wuhan lab leak as the cause.


Latest video. He's not a fan of Bivalent covid boosters!

The OiC of the DOH cautiously saying a few days ago they will get some and that there is a demand showing from survey data. Though previous Philippines booster vaccination programs have not gone well. The DOH probably won't consider the reasons for not having them suggested by Dr John in the video but will be more mindful of the expense and being left with unused vaccines.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...es/ar-AA14qcuA

Two very different examples of attempts to apply psychology to covid:


The latest Medcram video on You tube. Several studies are discussed and associations statistically established.

But, in contrast, another example:

Its abstract:


Author: Ray Palmer.
A peer reviewed article in a medical journal! But a misleading statement about the data as there is none given on his actual hypothesis!

Wouldn't most of the people people scared about vaccination just not get one. As long as it was a free choice, anyway?

For more on this, including an interesting conversation with this electrical engineer, see the latest SS newsletter " The strange saga of Raymond D Palmer.."

You can receive these foc from: https://supersally.substack.com/

For Palmer's paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9629406/#

E and SE Asian covid update:


Japan cases and deaths continue to rise. SK cases also, but deaths there turning down. Taiwan cases and deaths both downwards. HK cases maybe on the up, deaths low. Indonesian cases maybe turning down, deaths low. China cases upward trend, deaths low. Vietnam cases and deaths both low.

Weekly update tomorrow,






Last edited by Raffin; Nov 27th 2022 at 12:00 am.
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Old Nov 27th 2022, 10:23 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Nearly 550 fewer cases announced yesterday at 1,326. Testing on Saturday fell by nearly 2k over Friday's total.
Active 18.482, up for 4th day running. By 134.

Location detail

NCR at 457 cases. A higher 35% of all cases. Pasig with a high 98, QC and Manila each with 60.

CL down 81 to 76...Bulacan 26.
4A down 63 to 162...Cavite 48, Rizal 42, Laguna 40

These 3 regions with a higher 52% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 70
Ilocos 55
Cagayan 71
Bicol 31

Visayas case total down by 108 to 218.
WV up to 131
CV down to 52.
Cebu City 29

Mindanao with 88 fewer cases to 178
NM 47, Davao region 38.
Zamboanga City 17, CDO City 13.

Weekly Report

Nationally cases down by 12% (+7%). Last week's % change in brackets.
Just a few areas of those I track with a weekly increase. Mostly in the NCR.

NCR up 7% (+6%).
Manila up 26% (+20%)
Caloocan up 11% (+12%)
QC up 3% (-6%)
Paranaque up 2% (-4%)

Pasig down 11% (+35%)
Taguig down 6% (+1%)

So quite a lot of variation between these 6 cities, which account for about 60% of NCR cases.

CL down 14% (+4%)...Bulacan up 10% (-21%), Tarlac down 16% (up 39%).
Cavite down 17% (+13%), Laguna down 14% (+33%), Rizal down 3% (+55%).

Visayas cases down 26% (+8%)
Cebu City down 17% (+12%).

Mindanao cases down 23% (-8%)
Davao City down 41% (-31%). Only 51 cases reported.

More on bivalent boosters:

A doctor who was DOH Secretary 2015-16.
Embroiled in the Dengraxia dengue vaccine issue.
Now in the house of representatives.

Saying you need to have had two boosters before you can have a bivalent! Difficult to see why that should be. Except as a way to force people to get the existing boosters.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...74937e526ed2e1

Contrary to the US FDA, who said earlier this year it can be given after your second.primary vaccination or first booster.
As of now only 3.2M have had a second booster here.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...74937e526ed2e1.

Something of a distraction as whether bivalent vaccinations are worthwhile on any large scale is the main question.

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Old Yesterday, 9:51 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Lower weekend testing and so nearly 250 fewer cases announced yesterday. At 1,083. Latest Sunday tests down about 2k to 8.4k.
Active 18,507, up 23.

Location detail

NCR up slightly to 452 and a higher 42% of all cases. QC 99, Manila 98.

CL up slightly to 95.....Bulacan 42, N Ecija 14.
4A down 13 to 149.....Cavite 53, Laguna 37, Rizal 35.

These 3 regions with a much higher 64% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 15 to 85
Ilocos up 8 to 63
Cagayan 50
Bicol 9

Visayas cases halved to 109.
WV down to 41, CV up 8 to 60.
Cebu City 32.

The Mindanao case report was only 67.

Latest OCTA positivity report...some areas increasing, some falling:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...d3ab7f3f4dd630


From the latest Dr John video about an Italian study of the variant phases in the covid pandemic there. They use serological data to better estimate the number of infections. Of most relevance now in the Omicron phase the dark grey proportion who have been vaccinated but are still vulnerable due to waning protection is much larger than the light grey vulnerable unvaccinated proportion. For Italy 8 months ago those still susceptible estimated at 13% of the population. Dr John says it is likely much lower now.

The colour key:



Also of interest from the study is that under Omicron:

- Chance of hospitalization 95.1% lower than under the ancestral (Wuhan) strain.
- Admitted to ICU 97.3% lower.
- Death 97.5% lower.

Questions over vaccine safety:

The latest SS newsletter..."How many experts will be enough...." collects contributions from a number of doctors who have spoken out about covid vaccine safety. She also looks at issues with the new Bivalent vaccines.

https://supersally.substack.com/







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