NCR llockdown

Old Dec 17th 2022, 8:20 pm
  #1936  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's case announcement 151 down on a 39 greater Friday total. Latest testing down by 0.6k at 10.7k.
Active 18,262, down 648.

Location detail

NCR 471 and 39% of all cases. QC 106, Manila 47.

CL up slightly to 114...Bulacan 52, Tarlac 22.
4A down to 224...Cavite 75, Rizal again 66, Laguna 53.

These 3 regions with 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 32 Baguio City 12.
Ilocos up to 53
Cagayan up to 52
Bicol 13

Visayas reports down to 126.....WV 46, CV 46.
Cebu City 13.

Mindanao down to 107.
Davao City 3.


The downward Philippine vaccination trend since June 2022.

For more on vaccination, including adverse reaction data, see SS latest newsletter.
https://supersally.substack.com/

Weekly report tomorrow.

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Old Dec 18th 2022, 10:13 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A substantial downward adjustment of Friday's total meant yesterday's announcement of 973 was, for now, 93 down on the day before's. For the past calendar week next day revisions have been 425 down or averaging about 60 a day.
Latest testing down to 10.0k.

Location data

NCR 406 and 42% of all cases. QC 94, Manila 46.

CL 78....Bulacan 26
4A 159.....Rizal 47, Cavite 46, Laguna 34

These 3 regions with 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 20. Baguio City 12
Ilocos 48
Cagayan 33
Bicol 17

Visayas cases 122...WV 64, CV 40
Cebu City 9

Mindanao cases 83
Davao City 4

Weekly Report

Last week's % change in brackets.

Using adjusted daily totals national cases were down 9% (+5%).

Some caution with the following data as they are from the unadjusted daily totals.
Next week will have some adjusted location data.

NCR down 5% (+16%)
Caloocan City up 14%
Taguig up 12%
QC up 5%
Manila down 7%
Pasig down 10%
Paranaque down 14%

CL cases up 4% (+20%).
Bulacan up 18% (+5%), Pampanga down 8% (+38%), N Ecija down 13% (+60%).

4A cases up 2% (+23%)
Cavite down 2% (+23%), Laguna down 1% (+30%), Rizal down 3% (+26%), Batangas up 33%, Quezon no change.

Elsewhere

CAR down 39%...Baguio City down 26%.
Ilocos down 17%
Cagayan down 26%
Bicol down 34%

Visayas cases down 7% (-13%)
Cebu City down 17%.

Mindanao cases down 9% (-19%)
Davao City down 17%.

Improving infection numbers in the great majority of areas.
Locations showing case increases were in 3 NCR cities and in Bulacan and Batangas provinces.

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Old Dec 19th 2022, 9:23 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 137 fewer reports over the day before's. Which were adjusted upwards by 27. Making 863 yesterday.
Latest testing well down to 8.0k.

Location detail

NCR 338 and a lower 39% of all cases. QC 82, Manila 50.

CL 69...Bulacan 21, N Ecija 19.
4A up at 182...Cavite 59, Laguna 50, Rizal 41.

These 3 regions with 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 15
Ilocos 30
Cagayan up to 56
Bicol 18

Visayas 76
Mindanao 69


Dr John fills out the UK Yellow Card form online for his possible vaccine induced hypertension. Rails against the lack of interest in covid vaccine adverse reactions in the House of Commons.


Absurd Canadian research of questionable motivation heavily criticized by Dr John in 2 recent videos.
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Old Dec 20th 2022, 9:02 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a much lower 626 cases announced. Also the case total for Monday was marked down by 126 to 737.
Latest testing up to 10.4k. Would expect lower testing and cases in these coming Xmas run up days.
Active 17,263, down 330.

Location detail

NCR 258 and 41% of all cases. QC 65, Manila 39.

CL 52....Bulacan 21, N Ecija 12.
4A 97....Cavite 32, Rizal 26, Laguna 21

These 3 regions with a lower 65% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 20
Ilocos 39
Cagayan 26
Bicol 2

Visayas stable at 77 cases. Cebu City 22
Mindanao cases well down at 44.

The BBC reporting on the very narrow Chinese covid death definition.
I would add to what they are saying that deaths in these Omicron times are much less due to lung infection, respiratory failure, pneumonia but much more by chronic illness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64044204


Not that covid death counting is at all accurate in the Philippines...the DOH total has been about half of that estimated by the PSA. But surely Chinese reports for deaths (and cases) are ludicrously low?

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Old Dec 21st 2022, 8:33 pm
  #1940  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday the DOH announced 184 more cases over the previous day's total, which increased by 13 after adjustment. Latest testing up slightly to 11.4k.
Active 16,896, down 367. Recent continual decline in the active total at least partly due to the DOH's reduced testing protocol.

Location detail

NCR 339 cases, which maintains a 41% share of all cases. QC 88,Manila 53.

CL 84...Bulacan 24, N Ecija 16.
4A up 54 to 151...Laguna 46, Cavite 40, Rizal 35.

These 3 regions with a higher 70% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 16...Baguio City 10
Ilocos 29
Cagayan 25
Bicol 19

Visayas case total 92.
Cebu City 5

Mindanao 62.
Davao City 5


Latest video from Dr Susan Oliver in which she is unhappy with Dr John Campbell's recent comparison of mRNA and inactivated vaccines, the latter type used in China for covid. She also has a go at him over his continual pushing of the aspiration technique to be used by all vaccinators.


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Old Dec 22nd 2022, 8:49 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 1,031 new cases announced. Case numbers for Wednesday were revised down by 127 to 696. Latest testing went down 1.2k to 10.2k.
Active 16,900, up 4.

Location detail

NCR 377 and a lower 37% of all cases. QC 88, Manila 46, Taguig 42.

CL up to 113...Bulacan 38, Pampanga 26
4A up to 183...Laguna 58, Cavite 47, Rizal 45

These 3 regions with a lower 65% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 18 Baguio City 5
Ilocos 57
Cagayan 42
Bicol 18

Visayas regions 118
Cebu City 10

Mindanao 102
Davao City 6



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Old Dec 23rd 2022, 9:52 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 850 cases announced. The total for the 22nd was revised upwards by 17. So an increase of nearly 200. Latest test report down to 9.7k.
Active 16,994, up 94

Location detail

NR 354 cases...a higher 42% of the national total. QC 93, Manila 35.

CL down to 82.....Bulacan 23, Pampanga 22.
4A down to 146....Cavite 45, Laguna 37

These 3 regions with 69% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 14 Baguio City 7
Ilocos 29
Cagayn 43
Bicol 16

Visayas cases down to 83
Cebu City 3

Mindanao down to 77
Davao City 9

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...pected-to-rise

DOH again advising people to be careful over the Xmas/New Year holidays. Mixing over Undas was a lot lower than expected and so their warnings of a big case increase then were not proved correct. Now we have evidence of the China variant here and, something they don't mention, cooler weather. Lower temperatures inhibit the workings of our mucosal immune system.


In the two previous years there have been case rises in January. This time they may be understated as the DOH have restricted PCR testing.
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Old Dec 24th 2022, 8:58 pm
  #1943  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday the total announced seemingly down to 834. But as yesterday's number was later reduced by 110 there was actually an increase of 96 cases. But then today's number will likely be adjusted tomorrow..... Latest daily test report down to 8.5k.
Active 16,489, down 505

Location detail

NCR 323 and a lower 39% of all cases. QC 77, Manila 37.

CL stable at 83...Bulacan 32, Pampanga 19.
4A 152...Laguna 47, Rizal 40, Cavite 28, Batangas 27.

These 3 regions with 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 26 Baguio City 14
Ilocos 23
Cagayan 36
Bicol 18

Visayas regions 89.
Cebu City 11

Mindanao 76
Davao City 6

Latest SE and E Asian covid case and death daily report from Worldometers:


Japan and SK standing out. China should be but its data obviously greatly under reported.


Dr John shows leaked reports from a meeting of China's CDC.

Weekly report tomorrow.


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Old Dec 25th 2022, 10:25 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Weekly Report

Percentage changes last week in brackets.

Based on adjusted daily totals national cases fell by 22% (-9%) over the week before.

Regional changes below are all based on unadjusted daily totals.
Though the difference is likely to be only a few percent.

NCR cases fell by 22% (-5%)
Cases in all of its 6 largest cities fell between 14 and 33%.

CL's fell by 20% (+4%).....Bulacan 28%, Pampanga +9%
4A's by 22% (+2%)......Cavite 28%, Laguna 20%, Rizal 24%

Visayas totals fall by 24% (-7%)
Mindanao by 23% (-9%)

So generally over the country much greater percentage case falls this week over last week's.

Just the caveat that testing is now much lower than a few months ago and the DOH doesn't say in detail how their new protocol of not testing all the suspected infections coming to them is working out.


Future Manila llockdown posts:

It's a bit time consuming and cases are low so from now on I will only post a weekly report on case data.. Though if cases increase significantly I may reconsider that.

I will be calculating from the DOH cumulative totals for future weekly reports..That is much easier but trialing it last week there were differences from the totals of the adjusted daily figures. Eg for national figures it was 167 fewer. Not a big difference so will work with the cumulative totals.The issue is if those 167 cases were for that week? As in the past the DOH have been known to find or cancel cases from many weeks or even months back in time. That reduces the relevance of the data to the course of the infection. Eventually we can look at the DOH charts, which are based on estimated time of infection, But these are much delayed to be updated.

I will still post other updates on covid here from the DOH and from other sources as and when.
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Old Dec 26th 2022, 10:01 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

DOH Weekly Report

Cases down 25% (-2%)
I reported yesterday a 22% fall for my calendar week.

Deaths 172 (186)....Dec 27, Nov 10, Oct 15, Sep 19.....back to Aug 2020.

Hospital data

3 new admissions (7)
Admitted 516 (592)
ICU 19.1% (20.4%)
Non ICU 17.6% (22.5%)



Additions of bar height over the actual trend line showing the deaths backlog clearly stretching back to early 2021.


If you are subscribing one of the latest SS newsletters refers to an immunological paper arguing that the ability of our immune systems to fight future infections is being significantly reduced following all the primary and booster covid shots. SS says she is not qualified to follow their argument and certainly nor am I. But useful to be aware of the criticism, however valid it turns out to be.

Free subscription: https://supersally.substack.com/


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Old Dec 28th 2022, 11:56 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Raffin,
Again thank you for your very helpful daily updates. Let us hope that the great loss of face the PRC has does not mean that we have to endure a significant surge in Covid numbers.
Will BBM have the courage to introduce entry restrictions for all Chinese visitors?
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Old Dec 28th 2022, 9:00 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The US bringing in restrictions from Jan 5.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/28/p...ravelers-china

Aside from that BBM is going on a state visit to China Jan 3. When he recently visited Belgium he caught a bad cold. Is he going to mask up, restrict close contact? Going to be interesting to see.

Last edited by Raffin; Dec 28th 2022 at 9:17 pm.
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Old Dec 30th 2022, 10:57 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A good review of the situation in China from Dr John. A sub lineage of BA.5 seems to be dominant there and causing the wave of infections. Interestingly the Italians seem to be leading the way on testing arrivals there from China and they will soon have genomic data. He doesn't think we need to worry too much about it if the variant there is mainly an Omicron BA.5 type. He looks at the highly inaccurate Chinese cases and deaths data and puts them into proportion for a country of 1.4bn.


It's not at all clear that travel restrictions do much good, See article below. Our IATF is putting forward proposals to the President on that soon. But you can be sure they will be mild and won't come into effect quickly as BBM is off on a state visit to China on Jan 3. Political considerations probably involved too in the US decision.

A good review by the BBC on the effectiveness of travel restrictions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/59461861

Unable to keep quiet permanently on his usual You tube platform Dr John has published a video on another much smaller one calling for the cessation in the UK of the covid vaccination program. Citing a change in the balance of risk. Especially mRNA vaccines. Which are of course the main type used there. He also talks about the danger of not using aspiration. Not all experts agree about that. If you have watched him over the first 1 or 2 years of the pandemic you will know he was a great supporter of covid vaccination.

The link to this short Dr John statement comes from the latest SS newsletter.
https://supersally.substack.com/

https://jamescintolo.substack.com/p/...gn=429125#play




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Old Dec 31st 2022, 6:07 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Raffin
A good review of the situation in China from Dr John. A sub lineage of BA.5 seems to be dominant there and causing the wave of infections. Interestingly the Italians seem to be leading the way on testing arrivals there from China and they will soon have genomic data. He doesn't think we need to worry too much about it if the variant there is mainly an Omicron BA.5 type. He looks at the highly inaccurate Chinese cases and deaths data and puts them into proportion for a country of 1.4bn.


It's not at all clear that travel restrictions do much good, See article below. Our IATF is putting forward proposals to the President on that soon. But you can be sure they will be mild and won't come into effect quickly as BBM is off on a state visit to China on Jan 3. Political considerations probably involved too in the US decision.

A good review by the BBC on the effectiveness of travel restrictions:

https://www.bbc.com/news/59461861

Unable to keep quiet permanently on his usual You tube platform Dr John has published a video on another much smaller one calling for the cessation in the UK of the covid vaccination program. Citing a change in the balance of risk. Especially mRNA vaccines. Which are of course the main type used there. He also talks about the danger of not using aspiration. Not all experts agree about that. If you have watched him over the first 1 or 2 years of the pandemic you will know he was a great supporter of covid vaccination.

The link to this short Dr John statement comes from the latest SS newsletter.
https://supersally.substack.com/

https://jamescintolo.substack.com/p/...gn=429125#play
The UK has now joined the growing list of countries requiring pre travel covid test from main land China.
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Old Dec 31st 2022, 6:28 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d
The UK has now joined the growing list of countries requiring pre travel covid test from main land China.
The latest Zoe estimate was 3. 3M symptomatic people in the UK and so you would think not much scope for more of this China sublineage to take hold from travellers. Even if more transmissible.
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