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-   -   NCR llockdown (https://britishexpats.com/forum/philippines-155/ncr-llockdown-931684/)

Raffin Mar 13th 2020 9:42 am

NCR llockdown
 
The transport lockdown due to start on the 15th of March suggests to me that the administration are betting that infections from the virus in Manila will soon reach a peak. If they are wrong we are looking at perhaps two or even three months of it. Which surely will be very difficult to maintain public support for?

I'm wondering whether advice on this was taken from China where measures like this are much easier to implement and keep in place?

mikemike Mar 13th 2020 10:36 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 
I am not too sure any real advice has been taken in keeping over 13m people in lock down in a porous a place as you can find anywhere.

our work place is trying to prepare for the worst . most live in NCR

more will die from police killing suspected drug victims.

Philosophical 11 Mar 13th 2020 10:55 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by mikemike (Post 12819875)
I am not too sure any real advice has been taken in keeping over 13m people in lock down in a porous a place as you can find anywhere.

our work place is trying to prepare for the worst . most live in NCR

more will die from police killing suspected drug victims.

And poor health care in the Philippines

Regards

nonthaburi Mar 13th 2020 2:02 pm

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by mikemike (Post 12819875)
I am not too sure any real advice has been taken in keeping over 13m people in lock down in a porous a place as you can find anywhere.

our work place is trying to prepare for the worst . most live in NCR

more will die from police killing suspected drug victims.

You'd better hope you're right. If things do take a turn for the worst, I think it will be more than the police will kill somehow.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better, and over a long period of time.

Raffin Mar 13th 2020 11:00 pm

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by mikemike (Post 12819875)
I am not too sure any real advice has been taken in keeping over 13m people in lock down in a porous a place as you can find anywhere.

our work place is trying to prepare for the worst . most live in NCR

more will die from police killing suspected drug victims.

Big coincidence that this came soon after some discussions the President here had with President Xi.
What seems not to have been understood here is that China sat on their virus outbreak for many weeks before they had to have a provincial lockdown.
Province of China?

Philosophical 11 Mar 14th 2020 7:25 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 
Read this morning on Rappler that metro Manila is on curfew 8pm to 5am until 4 April.

If this virus can cause this sort of panic.. Its good that governments have kept quiet about aliens

Regards

Gazza-d Mar 14th 2020 7:27 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by Raffin (Post 12820269)
Big coincidence that this came soon after some discussions the President here had with President Xi.
What seems not to have been understood here is that China sat on their virus outbreak for many weeks before they had to have a provincial lockdown.
Province of China?

And the Philippines hasn't sat on their outbreak for several weeks. They have only come clean once some tourists started taking it home.

abner Mar 14th 2020 7:54 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by mikemike (Post 12819875)
I am not too sure any real advice has been taken in keeping over 13m people in lock down in a porous a place as you can find anywhere.

our work place is trying to prepare for the worst . most live in NCR.

As with any other country, Asian, European, North American or other, the COVID-19 cat is already out of the bag now. It's a pandemic in world-wide "community spread", at least 10 times as lethal as seasonal flu.

But even in as "porous a place as you can find anywhere", like the Philippines, measures to slow its spread, however late or porous, do still help, by slowing--even slightly--the rate of critical cases being presented to the hospital system.


Originally Posted by mikemike (Post 12819875)
More will die from police killing suspected drug victims.

Unfortunately, I think you'll be wrong, by roughly two orders of magnitude. The only two factors preventing it from being worse for the Philippines are its tropical weather, and the relatively young median age of its residents.

nonthaburi Mar 14th 2020 8:05 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by abner (Post 12820389)
As with any other country, Asian, European, North American or other, the COVID-19 cat is already out of the bag now. It's a pandemic in world-wide "community spread", at least 10 times as lethal as seasonal flu.

But even in as "porous a place as you can find anywhere", like the Philippines, measures to slow its spread, however late or porous, do still help, by slowing--even slightly--the rate of critical cases being presented to the hospital system.



Unfortunately, I think you'll be wrong, by roughly two orders of magnitude. The only two factors preventing it from being worse for the Philippines are its tropical weather, and the relatively young median age of its residents.

I wouldn't be so sure that tropical weather will make a difference. Warm weather definitely doesn't. Looking at the increases in Malaysia, Indonesia etc.

The official number of cases in Thailand is 75, and yet there are over 1000 people in hospital for pneumonia like symptoms under observation. Go figure....

Bealinehx Mar 14th 2020 8:21 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 
General lack of test kits hides the true figure in any part of the world. Maybe the Italian experience shows the real extent and spread of the infection. UK too slow to stop large crowd pulling events, US with it's head in the sand. Many countries adjacent to PRC probably not releasing true figures. The world is in a dark place and one has to consider that the draconian measures taken by the PRC is the only way to move forward.

abner Mar 14th 2020 9:08 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by nonthaburi (Post 12820391)
I wouldn't be so sure that tropical weather will make a difference. Warm weather definitely doesn't. Looking at the increases in Malaysia, Indonesia etc.

Higher ambient temperatures do impede respired viruses generally--one of the reasons the "seasonal flu" is seasonal, outside the tropics. But I'll grant you, this is yet to be demonstrated for COVID-19.

nonthaburi Mar 14th 2020 9:11 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by Bealinehx (Post 12820394)
General lack of test kits hides the true figure in any part of the world. Maybe the Italian experience shows the real extent and spread of the infection. UK too slow to stop large crowd pulling events, US with it's head in the sand. Many countries adjacent to PRC probably not releasing true figures. The world is in a dark place and one has to consider that the draconian measures taken by the PRC is the only way to move forward.

Although, the measures taken by the PRC haven't stopped the virus, merely the transmission of the virus. They're not the same things.

nonthaburi Mar 14th 2020 10:25 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 
No stockpiling of toilet paper in the Philippines...


Raffin Mar 14th 2020 10:50 am

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Originally Posted by nonthaburi (Post 12820407)
Although, the measures taken by the PRC haven't stopped the virus, merely the transmission of the virus. They're not the same things.

In the Chinese province where the virus originated the outbreak has been going some time and maybe some immunity has now been developed there to reduce transmission. Certainly their travel restrictions prevented a China wide spread.

But the Philippine cases are imported, so it's a different situation, Especially given the number and international spread of OFWs and the large number of visitors from China and S Korea.

Draconian measures have to be applied only after careful consideration as they may have unintended consequences. So here in Manila large numbers of schoolkids are stuck at home and we know that the elderly are the most vulnerable to this viral infection. As they are mostly cared for at home that measure may increase transmission as although young people are not so vulnerable they can be carriers. Also many workers from outside Manila will be crammed tightly together in the city with the provincial buses off. And now there's a curfew 8pm to 5am leading to more people stuck at home. Social distancing is a bit difficult in the average Filipino household!

The public will buy the argument that strong measures are needed..for now. Rappler is saying that any OFW arriving here after tomorrow will have to wait a month before they can leave! But is it likely that the situation will be better in a month's time? I don't think so as more cases are now appearing daily. Then this authoritarian government will feel it has to keep these measures in place long term to avoid losing face. In doing so fueling public discontent and throttling the economy.

Better to spend the large police overtime pay which will be paid on policing these restrictions on assisting testing, contact tracing and on the health services generally.

Stokkevn Mar 14th 2020 12:45 pm

Re: NCR llockdown
 
I liked the government press release on the self quarantine/lock-down curfew. They said that curfew was from 20:00 to 05:00hrs and only essential services ( medical, police, fire brigade etc ) would be allowed to break it. They also confirmed that supermarkets, banks & grocery's would also be open. But with everyone else locked up for the night who is going to use the supermarket, banks or grocery's.

Thinking before action comes to mind.


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