NCR llockdown

Old Sep 25th 2022, 11:43 pm
  #1846  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday over 800 more cases announced at 3,520. ABS CBN say the highest since Sep 1. Latest tests were down as well, to 16.1k individual.
Active 35,399, up 3,476.
Highest since Aug 20.

Positivity up to 15.3% last week from 13.3% the week before.

Location detail

NCR 1,600,up about 250. The largest daily total since Feb 2, according to ABS CBN. In its largest 6 cities 983 cases....QC 378, Manila 178, Pasig 133, Paranaque 103, Caloocan 96, Taguig 95.

Region CL: up 112 to 356...Bulacan up to 172, Tarlac 90, N. Ecija 28, Pampanga 39.
4A up 124 to 667.....Rizal 235, Cavite 214, Laguna 101, Batangas 98

These 3 regions down 5% to 75% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 45
Ilocos 62
Cagayan 38
Bicol 76

Visayas up to 233....WV up 44 to 101.

Mindanao up 184 to 428.
Davao up 78 to 184, SOCCSK up 77 to 117.

But VisMin main cities all with at most case numbers in low double digits.

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Old Sep 26th 2022, 9:47 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday around a 1,500 drop in new cases announced at 2,001. Latest test number really down to 11.7k. Much lower than the usually low weekend number. Was this due to preparation for Karding? Maybe partly, but Mindanao numbers were also much lower.
Active 37,082, up 1.683

Location detail

NCR down to 987 and 47% of all cases. 557 from its 6 biggest cities. A lower 59% of all its cases. QC 294, Manila 111, Taguig 85 cases.

CL down to 208......Bulacan 102, Pampanga 36, Nueva Ecija 22 cases.
4A down to 390....Cavite 135, Rizal 123, Laguna 58 cases.

These 3 regions up to 77% of all cases.

Visayas regions down to 124 cases,
Mindanao also down to 187 cases.
Low numbers in all main VisMin cities.


Increased dementia may become a common Long Covid condition,

DOH weekly report

Cases up 22% (-4%)
Deaths 242 (248) But only 34 in September and 29 from 12th to 25th. A 208 backlog from Jan 2022 back to April 2021.
Severe and Critical new admissions up 2 (+7).
Admitted 790
ICU 22.9% (27.8%)
Non ICU 27.8% (28.9%)

National hospital data at present showing an improvement.
A large number of deaths still being added to the 2021 total,





Last edited by Raffin; Sep 26th 2022 at 10:02 pm.
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Old Sep 27th 2022, 11:02 pm
  #1848  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday the usual weekend affected drop in cases, probably made worse by Karding.
1,555 new cases. Latest testing up only to 14.3k.
Active 38,315, up 1,233

Location detail

NCR 738 and 48% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities 494, a larger than usual 67% of cases. QC 182, Manila 89, Paranaque 65, Pasig 61.

OCTA report latest weekly positivity there up to 18.5% from 15.7%.
R value Sep 23 1.3.

CL down 50 to 158......Bulacan 102, Pampanga 23
4A down 60 to 330......Cavite 148, Rizal 89, Laguna 46, Batangas 42

These 3 regions up to 79% of all cases.

Visayas down to 101 cases.
Mindanao down to 126 cases.
All main cities in VisMin very low reports.

The DOH still fixated with the decision to allow removal of public face masks.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...9-cases/story/

Bearing in mind that the increase in NCR cases started before the decision.
They are still required on public transport and many people continue to walk around with them on.
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Old Sep 29th 2022, 12:11 am
  #1849  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday cases were 55 fewer at 1,500. Lower than usual for midweek. Possibly still Karding affected. Latest testing up to 18.1K.
Active 27,553, down 10,762
A large splurge of recoveries. Something not mentioned in the online media.
Through data on Worldometers recoveries added yesterday were about 12.2k.

Location detail

NCR down 67 to 671 and a lower 45% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with 464, which is 69% of NCR cases. The share usually lower at around 63%. QC 175, Manila 71, Caloocan 66, Taguig 61.

CL region up 21 to 179......Bulacan 97, Nueva Ecija 29.
4A down by about 50 to 278.....Rizal 86, Cavite 76, Laguna 74

Elsewhere

CAR 13
Ilocos up 28 to 68
Cagayan 14
Bicol 21

Visayan cases down 8 to 93.
Minadanao cases up 28 to 154
Davao region up to 61
All VIsMin main cities with very low case numbers.

More peer reviewed research published and reviewed in a recent Dr J Campbell video showing the concerning level of risk of post covid health problems. More evidence that covid is worth avoiding and another of its characteristics where it is not similar in its severity to influenza.


US study on a large cohort who caught covid early in the pandemic. Compared with one that didn't. Looked at many neurological conditions. To put the hazard ratio into context 7% of the covid cohort had the burden of any one of the conditions eg stroke, memory problems, migraines, movement disorders, anxiety, headaches, sensory problems etc. Memory issues had a high burden at just over 1%. The risk generally increased with the severity of covid. It was not affected by whether the person had been hospitalized.



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Old Sep 30th 2022, 12:29 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases yesterday added a little over 1k to 2,536. Testing two days ago up to 17.8k.
Active 28,172, up 639

Location detail

NCR up 478 to 1,149 and maintaining a 45% share of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with a back to normal 63% of NCR cases. QC 301, Manila 122, Pasig 94, Paranaque 70, Caloocan 69,
Taguig 61.

CL up to 224...Bulacan 124, Pampanga 43, Tarlac 20
4A up 178 to 456...Rizal 151, Cavite 138, Laguna 75, Batangas 71

These 3 regions with a lower 72% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 34
Ilocos 34
Cagayan 31
Bicol 29

Visayas regions well up to 224.
WV up to 86
CV to 38

Mindanao more than doubled to 346.
Davao region added 90 to 151.
SOCCSK 51 to 88.
Davao City highest so far this week at 46.

Dr J Campbell presents the latest UK ZOE data:


Yellow Colds, Blue Covid

Showing how in the UK if you have cold like symptoms now you are much more likely to have a cold than covid there.Likely even more to be the case here. But as ZOE data is symptomatic only this graph somewhat understates UK covid prevalence.
ZOE is 2 weeks ahead of ONS data and clearly showing the latest wave. ONS data has the advantage of coming from accurate PCR test and is now starting to show a small increase.
ZOE estimating I in 31 people in the UK now. ONS had 1 in 70 mid September.
The latest UK hospital data now showing a small increase in admissions for covid.
So it seems likely to me that we will see a similar much smaller new wave here with moderately increased hospital admissions



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Old Oct 1st 2022, 12:17 am
  #1851  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 47 fewer cases at 2,489. Latest testing up by 2k to 19.1k.
Active 29,118, up 946

Location detail

NCR up by about 150 cases to 1,294 and a much higher 52% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 824......QC 330, Manila 165, Taguig 111, Paranaque 83, Pasig 73, Caloocan 62.

NCR Positivity report from OCTA



Though the attack rate there still low at 7.42/100k. R value 1.1, indicating potential for more spread. Their heath care utilization measure at 35%. Moderate risk.

CL up slightly to 237....Bulacan 132, Pampanga 35
Baguio City 18.
4A also up slightly to 467...Cavite 189, Rizal 134, Laguna 85

These 3 regions at a much higher 80% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 31
Ilocos 40
Cagayan 23
Bicol 20

Visayas down greatly to only 96.
Cebu City 17.

Mindanao down 87 to 259.
Davao region down about 50 to 102. SOCCSK the same at 88 cases.
Davao City 28.

Philippines booster vaccination campaign.

Lack of interest admitted by the DOH with 25% of the population vaccinated so far. The target by October 8 a much reduced 30%.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/30/...booster-uptake

Notice making a booster a condition for entry is still under consideration. Despite evidence that they give low protection against transmission. Still, I expect it not to be implemented due to the low take up and the Xmas season coming up.

Neighbouring SE and E Asian countries latest total and new case numbers.



Review:

In Taiwan case growth looks like it may have peaked, but deaths are still increasing.
In Japan and SK cases and deaths are both falling.
In HK cases are falling but deaths are increasing slowly.
Singapore cases are increasing slowly and deaths low.
In Malaysia and Indonesia cases are falling and deaths low .

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Old Oct 1st 2022, 11:02 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The case numbers reported yesterday were well up in all regions.

Nationally well over 1,300 more cases reported to 3,822. Highest daily total since Aug 14 say ABS CBN. Latest Individual testing numbers down 0.9k to 18.2k.
Active 29,525, up 407

Location detail

NCR with 1,692 cases. ABS CBN say highest since Feb 2.. Its 6 largest cities with 1.039 and all with over 100 cases. QC 382, higher than its 340 on Sep 24. Manila 160, Pasig 157, Taguig 117, Paranaque 116, and Caloocan 107.

CL up by well over 100 to 349......Bulacan 181, Pampanga 39, N Ec 37, Tarlac 33, Bataan 27.
4A up by well over 300 to 799......Cavite up 70 to 259, Rizal up by 108 to 242, Laguna up 63 to 148, Batangas up 76 to 118, Quezon 20.

These 3 regions at 74% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 36 Baguio City 23
Ilocos up 40 to 80
Cagayan 36
Bicol up 56 to 76

Visayas up 172 to 268......WV up 80 to 108, CV up 46 to 93.
IloIlo City up to 31, Cebu City up to 25.

Mindanao up by just over 200 to 461 cases.
Davao region up 113 to 215.
SOCCSK up 28 to 117.
Davao City up to 58, highest this week.

All other main cities in VisMin with at most low double digit reports.

Weekly report later.
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Old Oct 2nd 2022, 11:42 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

In contrast to October 1 yesterday's national case reports were down by about 1,700 to 2,117. Testing on Saturday was also down by 2.2k to 16.0k.
Active 28,872, down 653

Location detail

NCR down by 784 to 908.and a slightly lower 43% of all cases.Its 6 largest cities had 588 of them...QC 226, Manila 99, Pasig 89.

CL down to 214....Bulacan 120, Pampanga 32
4A. down to 427.. Cavite 146, Rizal 124, Laguna 104

These 3 regions at a slightly lower 73% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 19
Ilocos 60
Cagayan 16
Bicol 35

Visayas 163 cases..WV 62, CV 46

Mindanao 293 cases..Davao region 130, SOCCSK 70
Davao City 32

Weekly report

Nationally a lower increase of 4% (+15%)

NCR also a much lower increase of 3% (+18%)

Region CL an increase of 7% . Definitely a lower increase than last week but due to missing data cannot give a figure.
4A with an 11% increase. Similarly a much lower increase than last week even though there was missing data.

In the Visayas a fall of 10% (+26%).

In Mindanao a fall of 8% (+16%)

The reported previous case increases are now moderating or reversing to falls over the country. But in areas in Luzon like the NCR positivity is nearly at 20% and testing is at a low level. Although there were those large increases reported for Oct 1 cases, which could indicate a new uptick.

Hospital data is going to be a much better indicator of the situation than cases,
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Old Oct 4th 2022, 12:00 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Saturday testing down 2.2k at only 16.0k but only 50 fewer cases nationally at 1.967.
Active 28,111, down 761

Location detail

NCR 869, down 39, and 44% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities at 512 cases. QC 189, Manila 80, Pasig 73. Taguig 65, Paranaque 54, Caloocan 51.

CL down about 50 to 165.......Bulacan 93, Pampanga 25
4A down only 1 to 426.......Cavite 169, Rizal 112, Laguna 86.

Elsewhere

CAR 18
Ilocos 46
Cagayan 24
Bicol 33

Visayas down 29 to 134.
Mindanao down 53 to 240....Davao region 82, SOCCSK 89.
Main VisMin cities with cases in the low double digits.

DOH Weekly Report

Cases down 10% (+22%)
Deaths 228 (242)....35 from September, 11 from the rest of 2022. Then 182 from September 2021!
Severe and Critical:
New cases 4 (2), Admitted 753 (796)

ICU beds 24.3% (22.9%)
Non ICU 26.2% (27.8%)

Cases down slightly and small changes in bed utilization nationally following the BA.5 August /September small wave of reported cases. But notice the DOH does not give regional weekly data and utilization is worse in some NCR cities.

Excess Deaths

The PSA has come out with updated 2022 data on deaths.
Reported in the latest SS newsletter:
https://supersally.substack.com/


Deaths for 2019-22. Excess deaths not showing after the early months of 2022, as in 2021, as updated deaths come in. More updates needed from May to firm the red dotted portion of the line. Seems a normal deaths pattern emerging after Jan 2022. Indeed deaths should decline after the effects of covid in 2021 on the vulnerable.
.
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Old Oct 5th 2022, 12:14 am
  #1855  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a 600 plus reduction in national cases to 1,347. Sunday testing up to 16.0k.
Active 26,792, down 1,319

Location detail

NCR down by well over 300 to 547 cases. A lower 41% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 321 cases, a lower than usual 58% of NCR cases.... QC 116, Manila 58.

CL down by only 2 to 163......Bulacan 99, Pampanga 26.
4A in contrast with 128 fewer cases at 298......Cavite down 50 to 169, Rizal 75, Laguna 56, Batangas 42.

These 3 regions with a slightly higher 75% of all cases.

Visayas down to 92 cases. Cebu City 9.
Mindanao down by 95 to 145 cases. Davao City 11.
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Old Oct 6th 2022, 12:41 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Wednesday's cases up by over 400 to 1,764. Testing on Monday up 1.7k to 17.7k.
Active 25.733, down 1,059

Location detail

NCR cases up by very nearly 300 to 846.Those from its 6 biggest cities at 503 and were 60% of the total.
QC 192, Manila 91, Pasig 71.

CL up by 16 to 179......Bulacan 80, Pampanga 35
4A up 65 to 363.....Cavite 130, Rizal 116, Laguna 78

These 3 regions up to 79%, the highest share so far this week.

Elsewhere:

CAR 13
Ilocos 35
Cagayan 8
Bicol 18

Visayas up 37 to 129......WV 63, CV 46.
Cebu City 15, IloIlo City 25.

Mindanao up 22 to 167......Davao region 80, SOCCSK 37
Davao City 24,.

Again all of the main VisMin cities with at most low two digit reports.


Medcram on You tube tackle US excess deaths. Note: The middle graphic is upside down.
There isn't the close timing we have seen here between peaks in vaccination and mortality, although peaks in deaths do come after....closer for the second smaller vaccination peak than with the first larger one.




A dashboard has been created by campaigning group ICAN to access the CDC's V-safe vaccine adverse reaction self reporting smart phone based program. Vaccine deaths not included.

The ICAN group had to sue twice to get the data downloadable for the public to see. The first legal moves were in June 2021 and it has only recently been released.

Out of just over 10M participants 3.3M, a third, reported serious reactions. A surprisingly higher number than you would expect given that eg for the UK Yellow Card system only 460k had been submitted up to last August.
The breakdown is shown above in the tri-colour component bar chart at the top of the dashboard. 1.2M had their daily activities affected, 1.3M missed school or work and 0.8M needed medical care.


V-safe symptoms reported by month.

The majority of reports were in 2020...so there seems to have been plenty of time for further investigations to be done on vaccine safety. Yet the data has only just been released.

Obviously this self reported data is almost always not reported by medical professionals using proper testing and diagnosis. But there is plenty of evidence that post vaccination adverse reactions are greatly under-reported, Those involved in giving vaccinations from the makers down to those holding the needle are under incentives not to report or down play adverse reactions. On the other hand people reporting on Smartphones can be attributing them wrongly to vaccination. Or not having them at all. There is a more accurate number to find between the two.

For more detail see the latest SS newsletter October 4.
https://supersally.substack.com/



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Old Oct 7th 2022, 12:03 am
  #1857  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

About 800 more cases announced yesterday at 2,562. Latest test number up only slightly to 17.8k.
Active 26,380, up 647

Location detail

NCR up by well over 300 to 1,174 and with a slightly less 46% of all cases. Its 6 biggest cities with 664, that's a lower than usual 57% of its total. QC up 120 to 312, Manila 140, Taguig 87, Caloocan 74.

CL up by 120 to 299.... Bulacan up 102 to 182, Pampanga 56.
4A up 167 to 530.... Cavite 187, Rizal 146, Laguna 118.

These 3 regions at a slightly lower 78% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 31
Ilocos 45
Cagayan 18
Bicol 41

Visayas number up 29 to 158.
WV 86, CV 49.
Cebu City 17, IloIlo City 48.

MIndanao up 83 to 250.
Davao region up to 112, SOCCSK to 64.
Davao City 37.

Latest ZOE BA.5 symptoms table, courtesy of Dr John's latest video:



Note: Fever 12%.
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Old Oct 7th 2022, 10:29 pm
  #1858  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A fall of over 150 cases down to 2,409 announced yesterday. Testing two days ago fell by 1.3k to 16.5k.
Active 27,129, up 749

Location detail

NCR cases fell by well over 300 to 856 and a much lower 36% of all cases.Its 6 biggest cities had well over 100 fewer cases to 547. QC 235, Pasig 92, Manila 84.

CL cases fell by nearly 50 to 251....Bulacan 94, Pampanga 24.
4A cases fell by 67 to 463...Cavite 133, Rizal 127, Laguna 104, Batangas 87

These 3 regions at a much lower 65% of all cases.

Elsewhere:

CAR 24
Ilocos up 42 to 87, highest so far this week.
Cagayan 19
Bicol, up 36 to 77, highest so far this week.

Visayas cases up 71 to 229..WV up 44 to 130.
Bacolod City 15, Cebu City 18, IloIlo City down 5 to 43

Mindanao cases up 135 to 385
Davao region up 15 to 127.
SOCCSK up 65 to 129.
Davao City down 14 to 23.
Mindanao's other main cities all with at most low double digits.
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Old Oct 9th 2022, 1:20 am
  #1859  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday over 200 fewer cases at 2,197. Latest testing down 0.3k to 16.2k.
Active 27,065, down 64.


Testing falling faster than cases.
But positivity rising.


Location detail

NCR 69 lower to 987. But up to 45% of all cases. 78 more cases in its 6 biggest cities at 625. QC 221, Manila 99, Taguig 83.

CL down 24 to 227. Bulacan up to 125, Pampanga and Tarlac each 26.
4A down 57 to 406. Cavite 143, Rizal 123, Laguna 71.

These 3 regions with 74% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 22
Ilocos 43
Cagayan 43
Bicol 31

Visayas regions down 52 to 177.
WV 105, CV 49
Cebu City 8

Mindanao down 127 to 258.
Davao region 119, SOCCSK 60.
Davao City 28.

All main VisMin cities with at most low double digit numbers.


Latest DOH Philippine covid cases chart by estimated date of onset.


Philippine DOH covid deaths chart by date of death.

Top 10 Asian new cases chart from Worldometers.





Case and death trends in our SE and E Asian neighbours

Taiwan: cases up, deaths up
Japan cases down , deaths down
S Korea case down, deaths down
Singapore , cases up, deaths low
HK, cases down, deaths low
Malaysia, cases down, deaths low
Indonesia, cases down, deaths low
Vietnam, cases down, deaths low.

Note: Thailand has not reported for the last week.
Previously cases down, deaths low.

Weekly update later.



Last edited by Raffin; Oct 9th 2022 at 1:33 am.
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Old Oct 9th 2022, 11:01 pm
  #1860  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday the usual dip, this time 100, in weekend cases to 2,097. Latest test number on Sep 8 down to 13.4k.
Active 26,357, down 708.

Location details

NCR with a fall of nearly 200 to 790. Its six biggest cities down to 485...QC 194, Manila 86, Paranaque and Pasig each 55.
NCR Positivity from OCTA: week to 28 Sep 18.9% (17.5% at 21 Sep).
DOH: 13/17 cities at "Moderate Risk".
Increased hospital in admissions in Pasig, Muntinlupa, Malabon, Makati, Navotas and Caloocan Cities.

CL down to 208...Bulucan down to 85.
4A up 19 to 425...Cavite up 38 to 181, Rizal 115. Laguna 62.

These 3 regions down to 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 26
Ilocos 53
Cagayan 12
Bicol 37

Visayas up 32 to 209..WV 94, CV 70.
Mindanao up 62 to 320..Davao region 129, SOCCSK up 56 to 116.

The main VisMin cities continue to have at most low two digit reports.

Weekly Report

National cases down 18% (+4%)

NCR down 24% (+3%)

CL down 12% (+7%) Bulacan down 13%
4A down 14% (+11%) Cavite down 11%, Laguna by 5%, Rizal by 22%

Visayas down 8% (-10%)
Mindanao down 17% (-8%)

Continuing case falls but these somewhat exaggerated by lower testing.

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