NCR llockdown

Old Dec 2nd 2022, 10:06 am
  #1921  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

National cases yesterday went up by only 45 to 1,283. Latest testing also only up a little to 11.6k.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cde1c5e581f665

Now we know why testing numbers are lower. Only severe cases are now being tested. How long was this going on before they "bared" this? Probably many weeks, judging by the rapid decline in testing. The protocol change is going to reduce the case count. Before this we knew that Omicron infections were more likely not to be reported than those from previous variants. Now many more not included. The statistics look better and the DOH saves money. Positivity rates will be higher but not give such a good indication of population infection rates.
As the DOH have previously said they are looking much more at health facility utilization lately. Though whether they are monitoring patients in non primary facilities and at home is not known. Important as a large proportion of covid patients earlier in the pandemic did not get to a primary hospital.
The DOH say that case numbers are only for their "internal monitoring" But important to note that case increases are somewhat more serious than before as the numbers will not include those with mild or asymptomatic infections.

Active 18,899, up 487

Location detail

NCR up 69 to 457 and a higher 36% of all cases. QC 88, Manila 66.

CL down 17 to 70...Bulacan 31.
4A down 14 to 169..Cavite 62, Rizal 41, Laguna 40.

The OCTA group seeing recent fast NCR case growth. Quite recent as I only calculated a 7% increase in my last weekly report.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...31d4c82187b9f6

These 3 regions again at a stable 54% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 35
Ilocos 66
Cagayan up 83 to 123
Bicol 38

Visayas cases down 19 to 159.
MIMAROPA 0!
WV down to 52, CV up 17 to 91.
Cebu City 28

Mindanao cases down by 5 to 156
Zamboanga region up 14 to 39, its main city 10.
Davao City 6.


Dr Susan Oliver, as usual, taking Dr John Campbell to task over his recent videos, which I have reported on here, on the viral origins of SARS Cor 2.
She gives some persuasive evidence that the lab leak theory is very unlikely to be true and that the Wuhan Seafood Market was the source of zoonotic origin spread to humans. From live animals, not seafood. She points out there is a timing problem with the evidence over early spread to Italy and disputes the accuracy of the tests used by the researchers there. Generally unhappy with the US Senate report discussed by Dr John though did not discuss its evidence in detail eg the China spread data there.
She gives a link there to an earlier video by her on this.

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Old Dec 3rd 2022, 10:37 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Nearly 50 fewer cases announced yesterday at 1,234. Latest testing up 1.1k to 12.7k.
Active 18,430, down 469.

Location data

The NCR with 24 fewer cases at 433 and 35% of all cases. Manila 75, QC 65.

CL up 31 to 101...Bulacan 29, Pampanga 23, Tarlac 21.
4A also up...by 34 to 101. Rizal 61, Cavite 55, Laguna 54.

These 3 regions up to 60% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 45
Ilocos 50
Cagayan 75
Bicol 24

Visayas cases up 6 to 165.
WV up 20 to 72.
CV down 34 to 57.
Cebu City 15.

Mindanao with 32 fewer reports at 124.
NM 37.
Davao City 4.
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...c42209d238c956
The city had 7 covid deaths Nov 20 -26. Vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.. Also 155 new cases. But my records from the DOH have only 51 for that period. That 100 or so cases did not reach the DOH may be due, at least partly, to the new DOH testing protocols I mentioned yesterday.

Weekly report

Last week's % change in brackets.

National cases reported by the DOH up by 2% (-12%).

Though we must bear in mind they recently changed their PCR testing protocol and therefore case reporting. Not now reporting mild and asymptomatic cases. Not saying when the change took effect. I looked on Worldometers and didn't see any notification there on the change! Which they should have informed them about. But judging from recent test numbers it was a few weeks ago. If I'm right the small increase here gives a good idea of infection growth and is somewhat more serious than a 2% increase was a few weeks ago.

NCR up 23% (+3%)

For its 6 largest cities:

Pasig up 86% (-11%) 285 cases
Caloocan up 48%
QC up 30%
Manila up 27%
Taguig up 24% (-6%)
Paranaque up 17%

CL down 8% (-14%).....Bulacan stable.
4A up 5% (-15%).....Cavite down 3%, Laguna up 7%, Rizal up 7%, Batangas up 18% (129 cases)

Elsewhere

The CAR up 38% (-45%). Baguio City down 20% (-22%). 150 cases.
Ilocos up 12% (+7%)
Cagayan down 7% (+7%)
Bicol down 7% (-7%)

Visayas reports down 16% (-23%)
Cebu City down 12% (-17%). 168 cases.

Mindanao reports down 21% (-23%)
Davao City down 42% (-11%). But only 30 cases.

As you can see and has been reported recently by the OCTA group NCR cases are significantly up.

CL cases have fallen a little, 4A cases up a little. Parts of Cavite and Rizal being closely linked with the NCR.

The CAR and Ilocos also showing significant case growth.

Cases in the Visayas and Mindanao areas continue to fall significantly.

The overall picture is consistent with the idea that certain Omicron variants are actively spreading in the NCR,some adjoining areas and in N Luzon. You would think infection growth will soon start to show in areas further away.
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Old Dec 4th 2022, 8:55 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 61 fewer cases at 1,173. Latest testing down nearly 2k to 10,8k.
Active 18,256, down 176.

Latest OCTA nationwide positivity up to 12.3%.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...7e8201fd683042

Location detail

NCR down 24 to 409 and again 35% of total cases. QC 94, Manila 72.

CL down 23 to 78...Tarlac 22, Bulacan 15.
4A down 19 to 184...Cavite 64, Laguna 46.

These 3 regions at a lower 57% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 8 to 53 Baguio City 21
Ilocos up 21 to 71
Cagayan down 19 to 56
Bicol 15

Visayas reports down 7 to 158
WV 83, CV 48
Cebu City 14

Mindanao up 16 to 140.
Zamboanga City 10, Davao City 4


Dr John presenting autopsy pictures of heart muscles from people who died from heart failure post covid vaccination. He looks very angry!

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Old Dec 5th 2022, 9:09 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases yesterday slightly down at 1,141. Testing down 2.7k to 8.1k. Usual weekend fall.
Active 17,907, down 349.

Location detail

NCR up 75 to 484 and 42% of all cases. QC 103, Manila 71.

CL up 32 to 110.....Bulacan 36, N Ecija 23, Pampanga 20.
4A down 6 to 178.....Cavite 56, Laguna 53, Rizal 50.

These 3 regions with a higher 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 48
Ilocos 53
Cagayan up 20 to 76
Bicol 15

Visayas case total well down to 84.
Mindanao's also to 88.

DOH weekly report

For their 7 days up to and including yesterday 7,731 cases. Compared to their previous week a 4% fall (+0.3%).
My different week had a 2% increase.
From my daily numbers for the DOH week I get 6,987, 744 fewer. They're obviously doing substantial revisions of their daily numbers soon after they are announced. From now on will check this weekly. The figures at Worldometers, which they say they get from the DOH tracker site now, also not in accord...they have 7,496 for that week, 235 fewer.

134 deaths (120) Last 2 weeks 19 of them. You have to wonder about that number also when Davao City alone recently had 7 covid deaths in one week late November.

Severe and Critical

New 2 (5)
Admitted 595 (599)

ICU 22.1% (21.6%)
Non ICU 25.3% (25.2%)

No change on last week.
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Old Dec 6th 2022, 8:34 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday over 250 fewer cases announced at 883. Latest testing up by nearly 4k to 12.3k.
Active 17,481, down 426.

Location detail

NCR down by 169 to 315 cases....QC 63, Manila 35, Pasig 34.

CL down 33 to 77...Bulacan 32.
4A down 42 to 136...Cavite 55, Laguna and Rizal each 31.

These 3 regions with 60% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 44 Baguio City 14.
Ilocos 55
Cagayan 44
Bicol 4

Visayas area up 27 to 111..Cebu City 12.
Mindanao down 2 to 86...Davao City 3
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Old Dec 7th 2022, 9:35 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Just over 150 more cases announced yesterday at 1,037. Latest testing up 1.5k to 13.8k.
Active 17,426, up 55.

Location detail

NCR up 128 to 443 and up to 43% of all cases. QC 82, Manila 64, Pasig 48.

CL up 23 to 96....Bulacan 25, Tarlac 23, N Ecija 19.
4A up 26 to 162.....Laguna 52, Cavite and Rizal each 43.

These 3 regions with 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 19
Ilocos 35
Cagayan 45
Bicol 15

Visayas up 25 to 136.....WV 65, CV 46.
Cebu City 16

Mindanao down 4 to 82.
Davao City 2

Latest SS newsletters on a TRO here against Pediatric Vaccination and Swedish fertility data.
To subscribe free: https://supersally.substack.com/

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Old Dec 8th 2022, 9:08 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Nearly 450 more cases announced yesterday at 1,483. Tests fell on the 7th by 1.3k to 12.5k.
Active 17,994, up 568.

Note on case count:
It seems from Worldometers that the DOH adjusts its daily count the next day, sometimes substantially.
So far this week
Dec 7: down 125
Dec 6: up 27
Dec 5: down 29
Dec 4: up 18

Small daily adjustments make little difference nationally if they roughly cancel each other out over the week. Will check on this from now on. Though they could be misleading if concentrated on a few location.totals as the DOH drastically cut back on publishing location weekly totals some time ago. Analysts would need to do a lot of downloading to keep up.

Location data

NCR up 70 to 513 and down to 35% of all cases. QC 105, Manila 75.

CL up 10 to 106...Bulacan 27, Tarlac 21.
4A up 74 to 236...Laguna 69, Cavite 63, Rizal 61.

These 3 regions down to 58% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR up 51 to 70.
Ilocos up 50 to 85.
Cagayan up 65 to 110.
Bicol 29

Visayas total up 36 to 172..WV 61, CV up 48 to 74
Cebu City up to 32.

Mindanao cases up 64 to 146.
Zamboanga region up to 43.
Its main city 12

Latest SS newsletter reports HK has started to push a 3rd booster.
Subscribe for free at https://supersally.substack.com/

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Old Dec 9th 2022, 9:18 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Twenty three cases fewer yesterday at 1,460. Though the DOH continue to adjust daily totals the very next day. Every day this week so far bar one. So for December 8 there are now 31 more cases than I reported yesterday. Not a big difference but making my starting sentence then only good for a day! Latest testing down 1.9k to 10.6k.....presumably due to the holiday on Thursday.

Location detail

NCR up 67 to 580 and 40% of all cases. QC up to 135, Manila 76.

CL 110...Bulacan 38, Tarlac 22, N Ecija 21.
4A 243...Cavite 79, Laguna 72, Rizal 64.

These 3 regions up to 64% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR down to 43. Baguio city 15
Ilocos down to 68
Cagayan down to 72
Bicol up 39 to 68.

Visayas cases down 17 to 155.
Cebu City 22

Mindanao cases down 34 to 112.
Davao City 7.

Philippine vital statistics 2022
From the latest SS newsletter.


PSA deaths data Jan-June, the most complete, showing a very similar pattern to 2019. This is a very different pattern from many other countries, where 2022 data is still showing excess deaths.

SS also reports on 2022 births here, which show a marked decline relative to 2019. Given the large population here I am not so concerned about this, but for more details on that and on deaths see her newsletter.

https://supersally.substack.com/

Following the German autopsy report on myocarditis and pericarditis deaths following covid vaccination there have been other You tube video posts on this.

Dr Moran seems to be an expert cardiologist. In his latest video he comments on the German autopsy findings I referred to on December 5 and on a Thai prospective peer reviewed study:


Latest Medicine with Dr Moran video "Sudden death after covid shots".






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Old Dec 10th 2022, 9:08 am
  #1929  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a lower national total. As the total for the day before was adjusted downwards by 129 best for me to say down by 173, not 302, on Dec 8's.
Individual test volume for Dec 9 n/a on the phone, which I am using today.
Active 18, 387, down 245.

Location detail

From now on due to the daily adjustments in the daily DOH case data, sometimes over 100 cases, I won't usually give or comment on up or down changes for locations. Unless they are large.

NCR down to 456 and at 39% of all cases. QC 74, Manila 62.

CL 100...Bulacan 46, N Ecija 26, Pampanga 15.
4A 207...Cavite and Rizal each 60, Laguna 50, Batangas 20.

These 3 regions with 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere

Car 59
Ilocos 45
Cagayan 75
Bicol 21

Visayas cases down to 113
Mindanao's down to a low 78.

Weekly report coming later.
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Old Dec 11th 2022, 11:12 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 1,134 new cases announced. 54 fewer than the adjusted total for the 10th at 1,188. Latest testing at 10.3k, down 0.3k on the latest figure given on the 9th.
Active 18,252, down 135.

Location detail

NCR up to 480 and a higher 42% of all cases. QC 90, Manila 78, Taguig 67.

CL 86.....Bulacan 32, Pampanga 17.
4A 188....Cavite 59, Laguna 51, Rizal 40.

These 3 regions with again 66% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 39
Ilocos 70
Cagayan 28
Bicol 15

Visayas regions 132.
Mindanao 87

Weekly report

Total daily announced cases from last week: 8335
Adjusted daily totals: 8058

As I have no record of adjusted cases for the previous week best for now to compare the unadjusted totals. Up 5% (+2%).
Next week I will be able to compare the adjusted totals.

For the locations continuing to work with unadjusted daily figures. The change last week was only 3.3% nationally on the unadjusted total so if that scale continues it is likely they will still give a reasonable indication of the weekly change. But we will see.

NCR up 16% (+23%)

By its 6 largest cities:

Taguig up 46% (+24%)
Paranaque up 28% (+17%)
QC up 26% (+30%)
Caloocan up 21% (+28%)
Manila up 2% (+27%)
Pasig down 14% (+86%) But still 245 cases.

CL up 20% (-8%)
Bulacan up 5% (-2%), N Ecija up 60%, Pampanga up 38%, Tarlac up 28%.

4A up 23% (+5%)
Cavite up 23% (-3%), Laguna up 30% (+7%), Rizal up 26% (+7%)

Elsewhere

CAR down slightly
Ilocos stable
Cagayan up 15% (-7%)
Bicol down slightly

Visayas region down 13% (-16%)
Mindanao down 19% (down 21%)

Cases are now not including most mild infections, so a national weekly increase of 5% is more significant than it was a few weeks ago. Involving the NCR and its surrounding provinces. Cagayan only in N Luzon. VisMin regions not yet included.


Dr John looks at China and their vaccination programme now as they loosen their zero Covid policies. They have rejected buying mRNA vaccines from Western companies and will continue with their traditional "dead virus" ones. Dr John comes over now as fairly anti mRNA vaccine, though he does not want to give on air or does not know about their considerable advantages over traditional types, especially in breadth of protection and manufacturing.









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Old Dec 12th 2022, 9:06 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases announced yesterday actually up a little rather than down a little as Sunday's total has been revised down by 162. At 1,115...for now. Sunday testing well down at 8.0k.

Location detail

NCR down by over 100 to 387 and 35% of all cases.

CL up 30 to 116....Bulacan 35, N Ecija 30, Pampanga 22.
4A about the same at 184.....Cavite 70, Rizal 41, Laguna 38.

These 3 regions at 62% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 27
Ilocos 47
Cagayan well up at 85
Bicol 27

Visayas regions 138
Mindanao 95

DOH Weekly report

Cases up 7% (-4%)
Deaths 156 (134) 30 Dec, 36 Nov
New admissions 6 (2)
Admitted 650 (595)
ICU 22.4% (22.1%)
Non ICU 24.0% (25.3%)

Slightly more covid hospital utilization.

Latest OCTA positivity report showing rises in NCR cities and most 4A and CL provinces. Rises also in Mountain Province and Kalinga. Patchy as there were also falls in Laguna, Bataan and Ilocos Norte.



Last edited by Raffin; Dec 12th 2022 at 9:08 am.
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Old Dec 13th 2022, 8:42 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases announced yesterday at 791. Down 354 on the day before's adjusted upwards total. Latest testing up to 11.5k.
Active 18,016, down 339.

Location detail

NCR 330 and a higher 42% of all cases. QC 71, Manila 52.

CL down 47 to 69.....Bulucan 30.
4A down 52 to 136.....Cavite 52, Rizal 42.

These 3 regions up to 68% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 33 Baguio City 8.
Ilocos 50
Cagayan 34
Bicol 4

Visayas well down at 68. Cebu City 2
MIndanao also to 59. Davao City 1

Latest E and SE Asian new cases table from Worldometers.


Japan standing out with its well established upward trends in both cases and deaths.
China cases also trending upwards though saying deaths low and constant.
S Korea and HK both with moderately upward trends in both cases and deaths.
Taiwan cases and deaths moderately trending downwards.
Thailand with both cases and deaths fairly low and constant
Cases in Indonesia and Malaysia clearly falling, deaths low.
Vietnam: cases and deaths both very low.
Note; Philippines case numbers now not including mild and asymptomatic cases.
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Old Dec 14th 2022, 9:38 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

New cases announced yesterday at 1.009 were (after a large downward "next day" adjustment of 121 for Tuesday) up by 339.
Latest testing up to 13.8k.

Location detail

NCR 368...37% of all cases. QC 89, Manila 58.

CL up 43 to 112.....Bulacan 26, Tarlac 29, Pampanga 16.
4A up 58 to 194......Laguna 60, Cavite 51, Rizal 44.

These 3 regions with 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 22 Baguio City 15
Ilocos 25
Cagayan 44
Bicol 17

Visayas cases up 60 to 128.
WV 66, CV 36.
Cebu City 11

Mindanao cases up 30 to 89.
Davao City 0. Also GenSan City.


Dr Been's latest You tube video on nasal explanations (other than more inside crowding) as to why viruses infect us more when it's cplder. But does this apply much in sub tropical climates, like the Philippines?


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Old Dec 15th 2022, 8:02 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

There were nearly 150 more cases announced yesterday over the upwardly adjusted total on Wednesday at 1,184.
Latest testing down 1.7k to 12.1k.

Location detail

NCR up 138 to 506 and 43% of all cases. QC 99, Taguig 68, Manila 63, Pasig 43.

CL down to 97.....Bulacan 40, N Ecija 16.
4A stable at 193.....Laguna 55, Cavite 47, Rizal 45, Batangas 34.

These 3 regions again with 67% of all cases.

Elsewhere

CAR 22 Baguio City 11.
Ilocos up to 54
Cagayan up to 68
Bicol 11

Visayas cases down at 144.
Cebu City 15

Mindanao cases down to 78.
CDO City 9, Davao City 5.



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Old Dec 16th 2022, 12:17 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases announced yesterday were adjusted down by 114 making a total up by 236. But this may change tomorrow when we find out by how much the 1,306 announced yesterday will be adjusted! Latest testing down to 11.3k.

Location detail

NCR up slightly to 513 and down to 39% of all cases. QC up 33 to 132, Manila up to 74.

CL up to 108......Bulacan 44, N Ecija 16.
4A up 55 to 248.....Laguna 84, Rizal 66. Both provinces highest so far this week. Cavite up to 60.

These 3 regions maintain 67% of all cases. Third day in a row,

Elsewhere

CAR 340 Baguio City 11
Ilocos 42
Cagayan 42
Bicol 22

Visayas total about the same at 142.
Cebu City 18.

Mindanao cases highest so far this week.
Mainly due to a much higher 56 cases from the Zamboanga region.
Zamboanga City 17
Davao City 9.


Dr John looks at the situation in Beijing, courtesy of Dr Li. Saying the Omicron variant there, better called BA 5.2.17, has a very high R0 of 10-18.6. The zero covid policy has been greatly changed. Called the "coronavirus cold". Cases rocketing there leading to many workers off sick. Nearly all cases mild but given the population size there will be many deaths. Figures about we won't trust in the West. On that subject Dr John at the end doubles down on a lab leak being the origin of SARS Cor 2.

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