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Re: NCR llockdown
Four hundred or so more new cases announced yesterday, which included a backlog of 203. The 11,021 the highest daily total since April 11. Three labs late. Positivity up to 18.1% from 56.6k tested. The highest positivity since April 19.Tests coming along less at 50.8k.
Recoveries 9.2k Deaths 162 with 94 RDs. Active cases up to 76k Severe 1,369, up 32 and Critical 761, up 18 NCR ICU 59%, down 2%. National ICU 62%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 2,823 up nearly 400 4A 1,864 CL 1,233 CV 1,049 WV 779, up 100+ NM 656, up 200+ Top 6 regions 76.3% (unchanged) For the regions, NCR cities, provinces and other cities will do a summary for the past week later. Quarantine levels https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/07/...august-8-to-22 Vaccination progress: https://www.rappler.com/nation/quezo...-august-6-2021 QC less than half way to their target for fully vaccinated. One of the slower NCR cities. How does the Philippines compare in SE Asia? https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6aeb885f33.jpg DOH projections for the NCR: At present the NCR has about 19k active cases. Three possibilities presented by the DOH spox: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...606adcfc17.jpg So both 2 and 3 weeks ECQ are expected by the DOH to lead to increased active cases. The two week option tripling active cases. Can the hospitals cope with that? Seems doubtful. So maybe it will be three weeks ECQ? The hospitals just about coping after some expansion of beds and movement of less severe patients, supply improvements etc The chance of a five weeks ECQ to get a reduction should almost certainly be discounted. |
Re: NCR llockdown
These granular lockdowns are like leaky sieves, the only way they will make any progress is to lock the whole country down again. The big problem with the increased transmissibility of the delta variant is locking people in their houses the whole family gets it at the same time.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13038267)
These granular lockdowns are like leaky sieves, the only way they will make any progress is to lock the whole country down again. The big problem with the increased transmissibility of the delta variant is locking people in their houses the whole family gets it at the same time.
​​ I agree about the household spread. As with the Indian multi-generational households in the UK. Though at least it will be concentrated rather than around the city. They can then deal with it in Barangays like in Pasay earlier this year. That seemed to work. I think they could have made some progress in Manila if vaccination levels were double what they are now at around one third but now there will be a very difficult few months before they can be of much help. All the other measures the DOH is talking about to reassure the public are just palliative until the vaccines get to a high percentage. You then wonder can they vaccinate enough here to really control this virus? Present take up is not encouraging and Sinovac seems less effective all round. |
Re: NCR llockdown
And they keep coming up with these unrealistic statements about community immunity, herd immunity, 50% etc. We all know that herd immunity for the delta variant is something like 80%. Who are they trying to kid, the public are themselves.
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Re: NCR llockdown
The word they use now is protection. They have the very young population here on their side, but they will just pass it on to some not so young or compromised.
Seen nothing here to publicize the change in symptoms. Established from large numbers in the UK and elsewhere. Too similar to the common cold. Many could ignore. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update 1-7 August:
By region: Total allocated to region 61,149 NCR 14,244 4A 10,597 CL 6,866 CV 6,443 WV 4,440 NM 3,680 IL 3,443 Dav 2,300 Cag 2,050 SOCCS 1,825 EV 1.183 CAR 1,069 Bic 1,048 CARAGA 645 MIM 627 Zamb 463 BARM 226 Top 6 76% of all cases. In the NCR: QC 2,541 Mla 1,722 Mak 1,193 Pnque 1,011 Psg 975 Taguig 935 By province: Cav 4,329 Lag 3,025 Bul 2,920 Pam 1,424 Riz 1,222 Batgs 1,125 Bata 945 By city Bac 350 Bag 291 CDO 1,059 Cebu 1,869 Davao 1,181 Gen San 516 Ilo2 551 Lapu2 771 Area: Aklan 1,362 Ilo2 1,153 Boh 896 |
Re: NCR llockdown
A lower case count yesterday at 9,671 as testing dropped to 51.3k and the DOH withheld 742 results for some reason. Positivity up to 20.3%. Highest since since April 10. Tests coming along 44.6k
Recoveries 8.1k Deaths 287, highest since April 19 RDs 149 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39883f9222.jpg Deaths flattening. Active 77,516 highest since April 24 Severe 1,318, down 51 and Critical 775, up 14 NCR ICU 63%, up 4%. National 64%, up 2% Regional data: NCR 2,325 4A 1,562 CV 1,412 CL 1,025 NM 635 WV 574 Davao 544 Cag 411 200s 1 region 100s 5 Top 6 78%, up NCR was down about 500 but still had 24% of cases. CV added nearly 400 more. 4A added more than 300. CL more than 200. CARAGA added around 100 more. On Cebu City: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3 The last one was bad enough: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...95cf472551.jpg Cebu City Quarantines: Good if they move to more random checks as the traffic is a lot greater than last time. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2 Vaccinations: Ambitious given at present only just over 10.7M adults fully vaccinated! https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4 Will now report weekly on NCR cities, provinces and other cities/areas every Sunday. |
Re: NCR llockdown
On the face of it encouraging data from the DOH. Daily news reports will give that impression. Seven hundred less cases announced than the day before. No one in the media notices or wants to point out that 1,770 positive results were not announced. That makes nearly 2,500 in the last two days plus some from previous days.
Positivity from the 50.1k tests was up again to 21.3%. Only 32.8k results on the way from the weekend. Recoveries 7.9k Deaths only 6, 4 RDs. Active cases up to 78,480 Severe 1,334, up 16 and Critical 785, up 10 NCR ICU 67%, up 4% National 65%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 2,406 4A 1,882 CL 1,113 CV 767 NM 619 WV 575 IL 477 Top 6: a high 82.7% But so many positive results held back for now. They may be mostly from certain regions. Main feature: 4A had more than 300 than the day before. NCR vaccinations: The President's spox saying that he was not to blame for crowds at vaccination centres last week. The timing was wrong. But his words got into the social media and after 3 days produced some panic as the start of ECQ neared. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/09/...tion-mess-spox No walk in vaccinations allowed during ECQ. Result will be a much lower take up than the government hopes. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/09/...ila-during-ecq OCTA update on NCR: R number estimated at 1.8 Positivity up from 10% to 14% in the last week. Delta variant 31% presence in samples (not told number and size....they will be small). No outdoor exercise allowed outside in NCR during ECQ! I can't see that being followed in some of the upscale subdivisions. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2 |
Re: NCR llockdown
No outdoor exercise! Well outdoors is the safest place to be.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13038840)
No outdoor exercise! Well outdoors is the safest place to be.
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Re: NCR llockdown
[QUOTE=Gazza-d;13038880]This was largely true for the original variant but the delta variant is some much more transmissible that you are no longer safe outdoors either.[/QUOTE
With an increased viral load yes, the chances of transmission everywhere are increased. But for people running, biking, walking and just stretching outside heir home for exercise that increase is from one extremely low risk up to a slightly higher but still very low risk. One to be weighed against the benefits of such exercise. It's clear from the Sunstar report that the risk of transmission was not the reason. As B pointed out the risk is greater at home for these exercisers. The Mayors say they just wanted to get more people off the streets .A dramatic or perhaps even panic move to try to give the idea that after enduring two previous ECQs with no end of the pandemic here in sight ,this one is again necessary and the most serious https://www.sunstar.com.ph/article/1...wed-during-ECQ |
Re: NCR llockdown
Staying indoors has many negative side effects. Apart from the inability to exercise the lack of exposure to sunlight inhibits access to the all important Vitamin D.
On the positive side the vaccination process is going as well as expected. A nephew of my wife and a recent graduate has been vaccinated with the one shot JJ vaccine in Davao Occidental. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1k less cases announced, 13 labs late to submit then a backlog of 1,318 included. There is about 1k more backlog to come. On the other hand tests were 17k lower. Difficult to assess the net effect of all these factors. Positivity was up a little again to 21.9%. Tests on the way up a little to 35k.
Recoveries 8k Deaths 92 with 29 RDs Active 79,016 highest since April 24 Severe 1,343, up 9 and Critical 790, up 5 After large swings now small changes. NCR ICU 67%, the same. Nationally 68%, up 3% Regional data (out early am today): NCR 2,168 4A 1,515 CL 1,363 CV 843 WV 545 NM 459 IL 434 200s 2 regions 100s 3 Top 6: a high 80.5% 4A gained over 300 and CL over 200. NM over 150 more. A good report from ABS-CBN on the national vaccination situation: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/10/...ed-vs-covid-19 NCR at about 40% but noticeable that the great majority of regions have a percentage much less than half that fully vaccinated. Delta variant: In fifth place in the latest Genome center report, but increasing fast and from experience elsewhere will become dominant in a few weeks everywhere here. Well before confirmatory news of that from the genome center. https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-genome-center Previously more identified in parts of Mindanao and the Visayas, now Bataan: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ound-in-bataan You will probably have to wait longer for the barber shop and salon to reopen in the NCR! https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ses-doh/story/ I would say "probability". There was never going to be the data available by next week to support a downgrade in the NCR quarantine. The DOH data here always slow to come out and not reliable to give a true picture. Prepare for a longer ECQ in the NCR: Also I think there's a good chance of other areas, especially around the NCR, presently MECQ, going to ECQ. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A daily total about 3.5k more than August 10's making the headlines with just over 12,000 new cases announced.. Three labs late. But most significantly including an extraordinary and unpublicised backlog of 3,594 cases. I had anticipated more backlog to come but thought it would be much less than that. Checking back over the last 10 days shows there is still more to come out.
The positivity of this mix of recent cases and those from one or two weeks ago was 21.9%. All cases reported to the DOH go through a validation process with LGUs and maybe that took longer with these or some labs are not able to process results as quickly as usual. No explanation given by the DOH but from yesterday's regional data it looks like it's mostly a lab issue in the NCR and 4A areas. On top of these delays we must always remember that infections started a week or more before testing positive. What it looks like is that there was a big rise in infections in the last week of July in the NCR and 4A regions which took a long time to test and perhaps also validate and are only now being reported. One good thing is that the DOH give a daily chart where they show infections by their estimated starting date: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fcf55ee810.jpg NCR https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0ace2b64d0.jpg Region 4A The trend line follows the daily numbers announced by the DOH. The green bars cases by estimated onset of infection. Notice that recently the green bars are starting to rise above the trend line. Something more clearly seen in the March/April surge. So looking only at the daily DOH figures given to the public can give an out of date picture when cases start to increase quickly, as it looks like they are doing now. Let's hope the experts in the DOH and outside are looking at the data correctly. But the mainstream media either have no idea about this or are reluctant to point it out, so the public are being misinformed. Latest testing at 38.5k and tests to come up to 54.1k. Recoveries 9.6k Deaths 154, 112 of them RDs. Active cases now 81,399 Severe 1,302, down 41 and Critical 814, up 24 Note: Critical now above 800. NCR ICU 69%, up 2% and nationally 68%, unchanged. Regional data: NCR 3,126 4A 2,569 CL 1,459 CV 911 NM 838 WV 762 IL 499 SOCCSK 444 I region 300s 2 200s 3 100s No point in calculating percentages of total cases for yesterday as data distorted by unusual increases in NCR and 4A reports...each went up by around 1k. Elsewhere NM added nearly 400 more. SOCCSK nearly 300 more. WV added over 200 more. Bicol added over 170 more. Cagayan 135 more.. Change to DOH alert level 4 areas: (alert level 4 ignores infection levels and is only indicating where covid health facilities are in a critical situation): Changes: NCR: Valenzuala, Marikina and Navotas Cities in IL Dagupan City in Cagayan Nueva Vizcaya out 4A: Rizal in CV: Mandaue City out, Siquijor in WV: Aklan in EV: Tacloban out, Ormoc in Bicol: Naga City in Davao: Davao City out SOCCSK: S Cotabato in Full list: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9720cfb6d5.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b975d042b3.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...55fafb7fda.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...15389ebb6e.jpg The large city of Davao now out, but overall it looks like these places account for much more than the about one third of the Philippine population covered by this highest alert level a week ago. The list of Alert level 3 areas, where rising infection levels are seen, is not published by the DOH. Vaccinations in the NCR: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/11/...-shy-of-target The always over ambitious 250K a day not being reached. Mainly due to supply issues, but no walk in allowed during ECQ, manpower and vaccine hesitancy also mentioned as reasons. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another day over 12k announced, 2 labs late and 390 cases held over, to be added to those still being kept back by the DOH. There were 12,439 positives from 57k individuals tested, so a high 22.5% positive rate.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7c16275753.jpg Positivity rising steeply but testing by much less. Recoveries 6.1k Deaths 165, 85 RDs Active cases rise by over 6k to 87,633 Severe 1,315, up 13 and Critical 789, down 25 NCR ICU 68%, down 1%, nationally 69%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 3,642 4A 2,193 CL 1,756 CV 1,005 WV 703 NM 646 400s,300s,200s 1 region each 100s 5 regions Top 6: 68.9% NCR added over 500 and leading with 29.2%. CL added about 300. IL added 131, CV had nearly 100 more. Weekly changes in cases for NCR cities, provinces and other cities will be reported weekly on Sunday. Latest OCTA group report: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2f66cdec28.jpg Cebu City, Imus and Tuguergarao in Cagayan getting reds for both ADAR (new cases per 100k pop) and ICU occupancy. Many other cities on red, brown and amber for ADAR. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...603e397042.jpg Delta well exceeding Alpha and Beta in the latest samples. Jeepney drivers got only a little of the government assistance available when not being able to operate: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...istance/story/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday over 700 more cases announced. Four labs late and again hundreds of cases not announced, yesterday another 359.
Positivity up again to 23.6% from 57.4k tests. A lower 48.7k coming. Not enough. Recoveries 4.3k Deaths 299, 175 of them RDs. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cb52f453d6.jpg Deaths by known or estimated date of occurrence. Deaths outside primary hospitals are in the majority. This can be guessed at by looking at the changes in Critical cases. eg yesterday down only 18, the previous day down only 25. A typical daily change. The large daily numbers of RDs are probably cases where the local authorities have little knowledge of condition, only that they once tested positive. These people are put down initially as recovered, then later the LGU are informed they have died. It can be worse. In this news item 5 in Cagayan died at home and were later found to have covid: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-19-fatalities Internationally: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1fdf863d72.jpg Phils at 8th place yesterday for world new deaths. But other Asian countries , some with smaller populations, also doing badly. Severe 1,350, +45 and Critical 771, -18 NCR ICU 60%, -8%. National 66%, -3% Big drop in NCR figure? Regional data: NCR 3,603 4A 2,727 CL 1,763 CV 1,038 WV 741 NM 611 IL 581 Davao 502 1 400s 3 200s 2 100s Top 6: 79.6%, up NCR down a little and at 27.3% of all cases. 4A was up over 500. Davao up by less than 200. DOH Alert level 4 areas: From this it now seems there are 53 (up from 41) areas: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...level-4/story/ Additional areas in Central Luzon, Bicol, the Visayas and Mindanao. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...k?ocid=BingHPC The PNP not doing anything much to protect their small, over crowded police stations after 18 months of covid? Or was the rate of infection seen as acceptable until recently? Then infection rates increased by the delta variant? |
Re: NCR llockdown
An increase of more than 1k yesterday, 4 labs late to report. The backlog included in the 14,249 cases was 1,131. The highest ever cases was 15,310 on April 2 this year. This was the second highest. Positivity just under 25% from 53.7k tests .Coming along 58.1k.
Recoveries 11.7k Deaths 233, 142 RDs. Active cases 98,847, highest since April 23. Severe 1,384, +34, Critical 791, up 20 NCR ICU 71%, up 11% (!), nationally 70%, up 4% Regional data: NCR 3,958 4A 2,523 CL 1,893 CV 1,268 WV 862 IL 697 Davao 630 NM 623 300s 1 region 200s 3 100s 4 Top 6: 78.6%, down The NCR added over 350 more to have 27.8% of all cases. CV added over 200 more. CL, WV and Davao all added over 100 more. ZP added 100 more cases. Weekly update coming later today. The major public hospital in Manila temporarily not admitting non-Covid patients! Also Pasay GH no ER admittance for now. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2 The DOH has a lot of investigations coming: https://www.rappler.com/nation/coa-s...on-2020-budget |
Re: NCR llockdown
Update on weekly data Aug 7 -14 over the week before:
Regional data: % increase National increase: 4.8% NM 8.9 IL 7.2 CV 6.7 CL 6.4 4A 5.1 WV 4.6 Dav 4.1 NCR cities % increase (NCR 3.6%) Nav 7.3 LP 7.2 Munt 6.1 Mal 4.8 Val 4.5 Mak 4.4 Pnq 3.9 Provincial around NCR: Bata 7.8 Btngs 3.5 Bul 7.5 Cav 7.2 Lag 6.4 Pam 7.4 Pang 5.5 Riz 3.7 Most provinces around the NCR with greater increases than the NCR. Other cities and areas:% increase CDO 8.5 Cebu 6.1 Davao 3.9 GenSan 5.4 Ilo2 C 7.5 Lapu2 9.8 Aklan 14.7 Ilo2 6.2 Boh 3.6 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 14,749 new cases, 3 labs late to report and a backlog of 683 included. Positivity 23,5% out of 59.9k tested. In preparation 56,2k tests.
Recoveries 10.7k Deaths 270, 141 RDs. Case fatality rate: 1.74% Active 102,748 Primary hospitals; Severe 1,336, down 48 and Critical 822, up 31 Total 2,158 NCR ICU 71%, national 70% both unchanged Regional data: NCR 3,640 4A 3,000 CL 2.034 CV 983 IL 980 NM 904 WV 741 600s,400,300,200 1 region 100s 5 Top 6: 78.2%, down a little. NCR with less cases at 24.7% of all cases. 4A increased by nearly 500. NM and IL by more than 250. CAG by less than 250. CL by more than 100. ZP by almost 70. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Update of the weekly update!
In the weekly update yesterday I didn't give what I said I would and look at the latest weekly increase compared to the previous week's total. Instead I mistakenly related figures to the total at the end of the previous of the previous week. Not so useful. So here are the % changes for the week August 8-14 compared to the previous week August 1-7: Regions: NCR +51 CL +50 4A +38 ZP +31 CARAGA +19 NM +18 CAG +!7 CV +10 Davao +10 CAR +1 WV +0.4 IL -1 MIM -16 BARMM -19 Bic -22 EV -33 SOCCSK -33 NCR looks almost certain to have at least one week more of ECQ as the decision for that must be made in only a few day's time. NCR cities: Those cities over the NCR average only: Nav 171 LP 129 Cal 74 Munt 68 Pateros 65 QC 64 Mla 63 Lowest increase Pnq 20 Mand the only city to fall. By 30% Provinces: Bataan 29 Btgs 30 Bul 48 Cav 41 La U 79 Lag 47 Pam 51 Pang 60 Qu -8 Riz 84 From this more provinces likely to go to ECQ next week. Laguna is already ECQ. Cities /Areas: Bac -44 Baguio -9 CDO 19 Cebu 5 Davao 7 GenSan 12 ILo2 93 Lapu2 25 Ak 2 Ilo2 1 Boh -53 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1c468b56bc.jpg Dr John gives the Philippines some mentions at the beginning pf his latest video. Testing is too low he says. Yes, despite rising positivity it seems not to be able to go above 60k a day. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A slight fall yesterday to 14,610 cases. But 7 labs late to submit. The backlog included was 1,162. Positivity 23.0% from 58.5k tests. A much lower 36.4k tests in preparation.
Recoveries 10.7k Deaths 27, 22 RDs. Active 106,672 Severe 1,387, +51, Critical 747, -75 NCR ICU 72%, up 1% nationally 71%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 4,071 4A 3.232 CL 1,903 CV 1,181 NM 727 IL 719 WV 551 1 400s 1 300s 3 200s 2 100s Top 6: 81% of all cases. Up. The NCR added over 400 more with 27.9% of all cases. 4A added over 200 more. CV increased by about 200. 8 regions had moderate falls in the number of cases added. The Delta variant: Was 68% of samples in the NCR in July, the Genome center say. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/16/...-genome-center Confirmation and more detail from the OCTA group about the probably resulting 51% weekly NCR rise in yesterday's weekly update: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3 The SC plus 1 policy being considered by the DOH to increase the percentage of vaccinated seniors, which the DOH say is currently only 43%: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ty-list/story/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
The usual weekend fall in testing giving a much reduced 10,035 cases, 6 labs late. Backlog included was high at 1,535. Positivity 22,2% from 38.2k tests with a higher 43.5k on the way.
Recoveries 10k Deaths 96, 39 RDs. Active 105,858 Severe 1,376, -11, Critical 741, -6 NCR ICU 69%, down 3%. National 71%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 2,380 4A 2,140 CL 1,291 CV 845 NM 584 Cag 519 WV 492 D 426 Then 300 1 region 200 1 100 2 Top 6 regions 77.3%, down The NCR maintaining top place with the reduced testing, having about 1,700 less cases and 4% less of the total cases than the day before. Region 4A came second with just over 1k less new cases. Most of the other regions had less cases but the CAR, CARAGA, Cagayan and Davao regions had modest increases. Large household sizes playing a big part in Philippines covid and probably more so with the Delta variant: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ome-isolation- centers/story/ https://www.rappler.com/nation/cagay...han-before-ecq Without more vaccination ECQ can only do so much, but with the NCR and around getting the majority of the meagre supply CDO and other areas in Mindanao are not getting enough vaccine quickly enough to reduce the past and near future rise in cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...30a5be2717.jpg CDO city In part of his weekly radio address to the nation the President warns the public that covid will be with us here for a long time. Like the Spanish flu last century, he says. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/17/...s-says-duterte While covid here is likely still to be around in a year's time the Spanish flu was almost completely gone in 2 years in most countries. To be replaced by a another yearly flu virus, one radically different. Influenza does that every year. Whereas covid variants pose a more difficult problem. We've already had a few and there could be more on the way. With the Philippines more exposed than many other countries to them over the next year due to its slow vaccination roll out. |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases announced yesterday over 1k up, 9 labs late, Backlog included only 170. Positivity 23.4% out of 46.6k tests. A higher 57,5k in process.
Recoveries 11.6k Deaths 161, 74 RDs. Active 105,151 Severe 1367, -9 and Critical 736, -5 NCR ICU 61%, down 8%. National 68%, down 3% Large fall in NCR ICU use. Reginal data: NCR 2,946 4A 2,854 CL 1,479 CV 956 WV 472 IL 436 Cag 354 300s 1 200s 3 100s 3 Top 6: a high 82.5% NCR added more than 550 at 26.6% of all cases. 4A added over 700 more. Together with the NCR the two regions accounted for 65.6% of all cases. CL added nearly 200. CV and SOCCSK each over 100. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fda1d211e3.jpg Some figures to quantify the obvious from a recent Dr John video. Very young getting on for half as more likely to spread the virus than teens. A significant factor here. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Testing of nearly 60k individuals earlier in the week gives a higher 14,895 new cases, positivity 23.8%. Just 2 labs late to report. Backlog included 656.Tests on the way at a higher 63.2k.
Recoveries 8.3k Deaths at 258, 180 RDs. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c5217eb785.jpg The DOH not talking about this.... Active 111,720 Severe 1,452, up 85 and Critical 782, up 46 NCR ICU 73%, up 12% National ICU 72%, up 4% A large one day NCR increase. Suggesting these numbers are not updated regularly. Regional data: NCR 4,348 4A 2,981 CL 2,123 CV 826 WV 734 Cag 610 IL 570 4 regions 200s 3 100s NCR added nearly 1,400 more new cases to have 29.2% of all cases. NCR plus 4A had 49.2%. Adding the CL region, which had nearly 700 more cases, accounts for 63.5% of all cases. The top 6 regions at 81.3%, down a little. Elsewhere NM reported nearly 850 more. WV more than 250 more. IL and EV added more than 100 on the day before. NCR Quarantine: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/19/...til-end-august Also Bataan gets MECQ for a week. Other provinces around the NCR , especially Cavite also escaped ECQ, despite their case increases. Dining, in or out and salons still closed. The data do not seem to show any improvement, cases so far this week in the NCR are well up on the week before's. NCR hospital utilisation is getting worse. In fact the effect of ECQ cannot be judged yet. So the decision was swayed by economic factors. One more week of ECQ with no obvious medical data gains to show would be embarrassing. ECQ could then extend further waiting for case increase to stabilize. Resulting in serious negative multiplier effects on the economy, extra ayuda to be paid. As it is the government will be under pressure to pay some extra ayuda as many NCR workers will not go back yet. The expectation at the end of August will therefore be to go back down to GCQ, but with those heightened restrictions again. This to be maintained for a month at least. Hoping the case data is showing some reductions by then. They're taking a chance that they can soon stem the rise in cases next month by stepping up vaccination, with all its difficulties of supply and hesitancy. |
Re: NCR llockdown
R., Once again thank you for your daily COVID-19 briefs, always informative.
So we in NCR and I believe Laguna are about to enter MECQ which does not have any practical differences from ECQ. Now that the vaccinated have LGU issued vaccine passports it poses the question, of what practical use are they when the vaccinated are treated in the same manner as the unvaccinated? The Philippines is I believe, the only country to impose the use face shields in addition to face masks. I wonder who is behind this money making scheme???? Another weekend looms stay safe and be careful one and all. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13042481)
R., Once again thank you for your daily COVID-19 briefs, always informative.
So we in NCR and I believe Laguna are about to enter MECQ which does not have any practical differences from ECQ. Now that the vaccinated have LGU issued vaccine passports it poses the question, of what practical use are they when the vaccinated are treated in the same manner as the unvaccinated? The Philippines is I believe, the only country to impose the use face shields in addition to face masks. I wonder who is behind this money making scheme???? Another weekend looms stay safe and be careful one and all. Except that in the move up from GCQ to ECQ they put on movement restrictions in and out of the NCR plus area. My wife wants to go to the family home for an important purpose but her flight was cancelled with only 24hrs notice and a PCR test wasted. Flights apparently restricted to certain APORs. Not clear now what will happen to her flight next week. All they're looking at on the vaccination passports is some public transport. But I think there is bound to be a demand by those running clubs, bars etc and events organisers to use them if allowed to next year. But I don't think more generally, given the likely maximum take up. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday all time high of 17,231 positives announced. Just 2 labs late to report and a backlog of only 283 included. A higher 26.1% positivity. from 65k tests with 64k on the way.
Recoveries 5.6k Deaths 317 (!) with 221 RDs. Severe 1,479, +27 and Critical 863, +81 NCR ICU 74%, up 1%, nationally 73%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 4,658 4A 3,707 CL 2,123 (same as yesterday) CV 1,311 Cag 832 NM 831 IL 641 WV 588 Davao 577 SOCCSK 521 300s 1 200s 2 100s 3 NCR added over 300 more and had 27.0% of all cases. 4A added over 700 in second place. Together with CL they made up 60.1% of cases. CV added nearly 500, Davao nearly 300. SOCCSK and Cagayan over 200. Top 6: 78.1%, down. NCR Quarantine change: A little more coming out on yesterday's decision. Opinions were finely balanced in the IATF meeting, according to a cabinet member. As evidenced by the lateness of the decision. In the end it came down to government spending. They (or he) were not prepared to pay out more ayuda. Remembering that it would also be paid for Laguna and Bataan, There will also be no ayuda for the MECQ, the cabinet member said. Exercise now back in the NCR, 6 -9am only. Population "protection"? https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...u?ocid=BingHPC A half way house on the way to herd immunity aiming to just reduce hospitalization and deaths. Don't think vaccinating only 50% will start to do that here |
Re: NCR llockdown
A few hundred less cases announced yesterday at 16,694. Four labs late and a small backlog included. Positivity 25.2% from 65.8k tests. Tests on the way 60.3k.
Recoveries a high 15.8k. Deaths 398 with 211 RDs. Deaths announced over the last week showing nearly a 50% increase on the week before. The latest DOH chart showing them from date of occurrence: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...74c1b126be.jpg Compare with the same chart at 2 weeks ago: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...131738479d.jpg Active cases 123,935 Severe 1,487, up 8 and Critical 868, up 5 NCR ICU 74%, nationally 73%. Both unchanged. Regional data: NCR 4,469 4A 3,738 CL 2,539 CV 1,127 WV 922 NM 748 IL 728 Davao 649 SOCCSK 507 2 in the 200s 5 100s Five regions only showing an increase on the day before. The only notable one was CL...it had over 400 more cases. NCR with 26.8% of all cases. The top 6 regions at 81.1% of all cases, up. Will update on weekly changes in cities and provinces later. Ayuda distribution: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...O?ocid=BingHPC https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2 Another reason why the government couldn't have more ECQ. Slow distribution. Delta variant: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/21/...n-is-there-doh The DOH finally seeing enough delta transmission between non linkable cases to call it "community" transmission. Dr John looks at delta and the effectiveness of the Pfizer/AZ vaccines, analysed through a large scale UK study. Several interesting findings: Delta infections give similar loads whether vaccinated or not. Two doses give the same level of protection as having had covid. You get a higher protection level when vaccinated after having had covid naturally. The time between vaccinations not affecting new infections. This conclusion from data goes against the generally accepted view up to now. Of course in the Philippines these two vaccines together account for a much lower percentage of vaccines given. Sinovac is the dominant brand delivered here. Up to recently about 25M doses delivered, with the rest at 22M combined. Its general effectiveness much lower. So would need to scale down these results when applying them here. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update (% change in new cases Aug 14- 21 over the previous week)
Regions; BARMM +27 CAR +33 CARAGA +38 NCR +23 IL +25 Cag +50 4A +44 CL +28 MIM +45 Bic +14 WV -6 CV -3 EV +22 ZP +40 NM +15 Davao +9 SOCCSK +84 NCR adding cases at under half the rate but 4A adding at only a little less than the rate of the week before. CL added new cases at 10% less. WV and CV both adding less new cases than in the week before. 6 regions swing from adding less new cases to adding more new cases than in the previous week: BARMM, IL, MIM, Bicol, EV and SOCCSK. NCR cities: Top 6 % increases: 1 Mand +254 2 Mkna +150 3 Munt +137 4 Pasig +73 5 Taguig +48 6 Cal +42 Cities with a fall in % increase: Manila -6 Pat -10 LP -12 Nav -25 Provinces: Bataan +27 Batngs +50 Bul +24 Cav +42 Lag +37 Pam +33 Pang +51 Quez +28 Riz +65 All exceeding the % increase in the NCR. Other cities: Bac +43 Bag +41 CDO +3 Cebu +3 Davao +5 Gen San +8 IloIlo -45 Lapu2 -15 Aklan -52 Ilo2 +31 Boh +31 Three major cities showing much lower rates of increase. |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases yesterday down by 650 but 680 were held over. Also 6 labs were too late to submit. Positivity 25.5% from 65.6k tests. Coming along 60.7k,
Recoveries 14k Deaths 215 with 120 RDs. Active 125,900 Severe 1,511, up 24 and Critical 755, down 113 (!) NCR ICU 71%, down 3%. National 73%, unchanged. Regional data: NCR 3,973 4A 3,542 CL 2,310 CV 1,360 NM 826 WV 741 IL 669 Davao 556 300s 3 regions 200s 2 100s 2 Top 6: 79.5%, down. NCR down by about 500 at 24.8% of all cases. 4A and CL were both down by about 200. The 3 regions together making up 61.2% of all cases. Elsewhere CV added over 200 more. Cagayan over 100 more. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A record high 18,332 cases yesterday. A notable backlog of 2,158 cases included. Very likely most of them from Cagayan Valley.. Three labs late. Positivity 24.9% from 65k tests. Much lower 45.5k tests from the weekend coming along.
Recoveries 13.8k Much higher figures lately. Deaths 151, 68 RDs. Active 130,350 Severe 1,564, up 53 and Critical 782, up 27 NCR ICU 72%, up 1%. National 73% unchanged. Regional data: NCR 4,805 4A 4,127 CL 2,010 Cag 1,551 CV 972 NM 841 WV 821 IL 655 Davao 553 CAR 518 SOCCSK 435 200s 2 regions 100s 3 NCR added over 700 more cases at 26.2% of all cases. 4A added nearly 600 more. The CAR over 200 more. Cagayan added a highly unusual 1,200 more. This must have been mostly backlog, whether held back in the DOH and/or perhaps locally for some validation reason. NCR plus the 4A region had 48.7%. Adding CL the 3 regions together had 59.7% of all cases. Top 6 regions 78% of all cases, down. Vaccines: A one shot Russian vaccine given emergency approval. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/23/...vid-19-vaccine Effectivity data with moderate results from Paraguay and also approved in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. The maker with a reputation for not releasing data on their vaccines, even in Russia itself. The ABS-CBN vaccine tracker records only 365k doses of their other vaccine administered here. 2022 Budget https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...ational-budget Subject to change, but at present only 4% for pandemic response. Duque not in touch with the data: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ot-work/story/ If you look back at my weekly update there are improvements in both regions, especially in the CV. CDO city also improved. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Lower weekend testing giving about 6k less case announcements at 12,067. A backlog of 714 included. Also 10 labs late to submit, not counted. Positivity of 45.6k tests was 24.9%. An even lower 42.6k results in progress.
Recoveries higher at 14.6k Deaths 303, 161 RDs. ABS-CBN data analytics sent this out: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9242535f26.jpg Active 127,703, down about 3k Severe 1,532, down 32 and Critical 766, down 16 NCR ICU 74%, up 2% National 73%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 2,806 4A 2,551 CL 1,813 CV 1,014 Cag 715 NM 623 IL 622 400s 1 region 300s 1 200s 3 100s 2 NCR down by about 2k cases. Gave 23.3% of cases. 4A went down less, by 1,6k cases. CL only 200 less. All regions except CV , with 42 more, had less cases. Top 6 regions: 79% up 1% |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday's test volume still affected by the usual weekend fall and also was supplemented by a backlog of 1,794 positives. Seven labs late to submit. Positivity of the 13,573 results was 25.5%. Tests coming higher at 57.8k.
Recoveries higher at 15.8k You wonder if the DOH now pressurizing LGUs to increase recoveries? Deaths 228, 152 RDs. Active 125,378 Severe 1,505, -27 and Critical 752, -14 NCR ICU 73%, down 1% National 72%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 3,628 4A 2,913 CL 1,680 NM 850 CV 812 WV 683 IL 541 Dav 538 400s 1 region 300 1 200 2 100 3 Top 6: 77.8%, down 1% The NCR added more than 800 to lead with 26.7% of cases. 4A was second and added more than 350 cases. CLs cases fell by more than 100. These 3 regions accounted for 60% of all cases. Elsewhere WV rose by about 270 cases. In Mindanao four regions had more cases. NM over 200 more SOCCSK by getting on for 200 Davao by more than 170 Zamboanga by about 100. OCTA report that for the week Aug 18 -24 NCR cases fell by 13%. My calculations for a two week period a few days before that found a drop of 23%. They found the R number down to 1.53, a value still deemed "critical" overall. In fact only Navotas's R number was not critical, rather it went down to "high". ADAR, new cases over a two week period as a % of population was over the critical 30% level in 13 cities. Positivity lately in the NCR was at 23%. ICU bed occupancy was very high, over 85%, in San Juan, Muntinlupa, Las Pinas, and Paranaque https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a010884c1c.jpg Note; For those of you not that familiar with the NCR cities: Pateros is a very small LGU, not a city. San Juan is much larger but a small NCR city. Both Makati and Muntinlpa (including Alabang) contain upscale shopping Mall areas but also have large populations of the poor in crowded residential areas not seen as easily.by visiting Expats. Some personal observations on NCR travel during the ECQ/MECQ: Driving into the S Metro area a number of times recently through Cavite one sees a number of mainly non functional checkpoints with a few police sitting down doing nothing..as they do. Only passed a couple, one near NAIA 3 and another on the NAIA road in Paranaque, that were stopping a few vehicles, but mainly waiving you through. Interestingly the Paranaque one was on the less traffic side going South in the morning. If it had been on the choked other side going into town no one would get to work. Getting on a domestic flight is much more difficult. You need some luck to not book one which is later canceled at short notice. The main targets were flights to tourist destinations and places with increasing cases, especially in Mindanao and Visayas. Then the government is making the process difficult and expensive. You need a negative PCR test to be taken 2 days before the flight (late last year it was 5 days), one which promises a result in 24 hours. So if your flight is canceled late by the airline you can waste a few thousand pesos and your time getting that swab test. Then you upload the S Pass app. It makes it easy for someone who is an APOR ie govt employee, frontliner, on business etc, but not so easy if you are going for family reasons. In that case better to use a travel agent to help you with it. Maybe you can get a cheaper ticket yourself, but these people have the knowledge on getting a quick PCR test and the SPass. Then your S Pass probably needs the approval of the destination LGU. This can be given quickly but best to get their phone number as you may be doing this late in the day before your flight. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday cases increased to 16,313, 5 labs were late so not counted. 97 positive results were held over. Positivity 24.9% from 65.9k tests. Tests in preparation 67k.
Recoveries 9.7k Deaths 236, 125 RDs. Active 131,921 Highest since April 19 Severe 1,583, up 78 and Critical 792, up 40 NCR ICU jump by 4% to 77%, National 75%, up 3% Regional data: NCR 4,302 4A 3,512 CL 2,365 CV 1,088 NM 913 WV 621 Cag 611 IL 586 400s 1 region 200s 2 100s 5 NCR had getting on for 700 more, 4A about 600 and CL nearly 500 more. NCR had 26.4% of all cases. The top 3 regions 62.4%, up on the day before. Elsewhere CV added nearly 200 more, EV nearly 100 more. Only 4 regions had less cases added. The top 6 regions had 79% of cases, up 1%. Looks like the government have had enough with large area lockdowns: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/26/...owns-dilg-exec Some face to face schooling being considered. Cases are increasing, but a start must be made to get at least some back to physical school: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...V?ocid=BingHPC The city of Manila says that nearly 381k families got their P4,000 ayuda. Total population just under 2M. Seems to have been done well. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/27/...ting-ecq-ayuda Classic British under statement from Dr John as he lays into the US FDA about Pfizer efficacy data in this video from Wednesday: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...563bfc6f6e.jpg Actually a lot less than 91%... |
Re: NCR llockdown
The second highest ever daily total yesterday at 17,447 and it could have been more as 926 positives were held back. Positivity up to 26.1% from a high 70.4K tests. A little fewer in process at 68k.
Recoveries at 6.8k Deaths 113, 47 RDs. Active 142,531 Severe 1,568, down 15 and Critical 855, up 63 Total 2,423 NCR ICU 75%, down 2%. National 75%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 4,901 4A 3,964 CL 1,960 CV 1,000 Dav 833 WV 814 600s 2 regions 500s 2 400s 1 300s 1 200s 2 100s 2 NCR adding 600 more with a higher 28.1% of all cases. 4A added about 450 more but CL in 3rd place reported 400 less. The top 3 regions at 62% of all cases with the NCR and 4A at just over 50%. Elsewhere Davao added 334 more. Bicol 139 more. The CAR quadrupled new cases to have 506. Apart from CL 5 other regions added fewer cases. The top 6 at 77.2% of all cases, down 2%. A move to more "granular" ie small area lockdowns can only be justified by this government if they make them harsher than general lockdowns. So a discussion about stopping people going out: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3 Face shield purchasing: https://www.rappler.com/nation/video...august-27-2021 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13045062)
The second highest ever daily total yesterday at 17,447 and it could have been more as 926 positives were held back. Positivity up to 26.1% from a high 70.4K tests. A little fewer in process at 68k.
Recoveries at 6.8k Deaths 113, 47 RDs. Active 142,531 Severe 1,568, down 15 and Critical 855, up 63 Total 2,423 NCR ICU 75%, down 2%. National 75%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 4,901 4A 3,964 CL 1,960 CV 1,000 Dav 833 WV 814 600s 2 regions 500s 2 400s 1 300s 1 200s 2 100s 2 NCR adding 600 more with a higher 28.1% of all cases. 4A added about 450 more but CL in 3rd place reported 400 less. The top 3 regions at 62% of all cases with the NCR and 4A at just over 50%. Elsewhere Davao added 334 more. Bicol 139 more. The CAR quadrupled new cases to have 506. Apart from CL 5 other regions added fewer cases. The top 6 at 77.2% of all cases, down 2%. A move to more "granular" ie small area lockdowns can only be justified by this government if they make them harsher than general lockdowns. So a discussion about stopping people going out: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=3 Face shield purchasing: https://www.rappler.com/nation/video...august-27-2021 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Philosophical 11
(Post 13045215)
I find it somewhat disconcerting that the UK with nearly half the population of the Philippines and vastly far more vaccinated registered about 38k new cases yesterday and the Philippines 17k. Also the R rate in the UK is 1.1....far lower than the Philippines. The Delta virus struck the UK far earlier than the Philippines. Are the figures coming out of the UK a pre-curser to what we can expect in the Philippines in the coming weeks? Or are the measures taken in the Philippines far more effective than that in the UK bearing in mind the comparative figures I have stated?
Here the lack of testing means that there are many more cases than admitted. If you monitor the data daily you will see in many regions they have a testing blitz one day in an area then have another one after a few days somewhere else. The UK is now testing at a daily level x10 here now , with a much lower population. Of course the younger Phil population means most of the undetected can ride out a mild illness. The unlucky get worse, don't get into a proper hospital and after a delay many are recorded as covid deaths. Yes, I think the restrictions here are holding down cases somewhat but the government has promised a normal Xmas season , and that starts next month! So more economic activity more cases in a population of over 110M with only 18M doubly vaccinated, about half with a weaker Chinese vaccine. The limited number of primary hospitals are mostly already almost at full capacity. So I think the UK gamble will eventually pay off, though with more pain than hoped for. The Phils took their gamble when they delayed the vaccine ordering last year. Now they can't repeat large area hard lockdowns so even if we don't see very high cases numbers I think the moderately high numbers here now and over the next month will affect the population here more than the increasing UK numbers will people there. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The UK is experiencing more than double the daily case but one third of the deaths so is the Philippines really seeing 50k+ daily cases.
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Re: NCR llockdown
With the lack of testing possibly yes. The UK is also experiencing a very low level of serious cases, and has the highest testing / population ratio when compared to countries with populations greater than 10 million
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Re: NCR llockdown
Two pandemic records yesterday. Cases at 19,441 and positivity at 27.5%. Three labs late to submit and 255 cases were held over. Tests conducted on 71.6K and 63.6k on the way. Note that daily tests now can exceed 70k.
Recoveries a high 19.2k. Deaths 167, 76 RDs Active 142,679 Severe 1,570, up 2 and Critical 856 up 1 Very small changes. NCR ICU 73%, down 2% and national 74%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 5,085 4A 4,446 CL 2,624 IL 1,086 CV 1,004 Dav 898 WV 875 600s 1 region 500 1 400 2 300 2 200 1 100 2 NCR new cases rose only a little. It had 26.2% of all cases. CL rose most by over 650. 4A had over 450 more. IL had over 500 more, a nearly 50% increase on the day before. NM had 170 more to 676. Five of the 17 regions had less cases. Top 6 regions: 77.9%, up slightly. Rappler seem to want to rival ABS-CBN and OCTA with covid data analysis. Ordering on 2 week daily attack rate up to August 27. Over 7% highlighted in red. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...99c95abf90.jpg NCR leading by a distance on 2 week ADAR but it must have by far the best testing of all the regions. Case growth rates in a number of other regions exceeded the NCR's. Notably Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Cagayan, Caraga, Zamboanga and BARMM. NCR plus MECQ extended another week. Rappler also produced an updated quarantine list: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ad90692778.jpg |
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