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Re: NCR llockdown
About 1,300 fewer cases announced yesterday. Included a sizeable backlog of 1,638 cases .Two labs late. Slightly lower positivity at 12.5%. Tests coming along 42.1k.
Recoveries 7.5k. Deaths again high at 156 with 91 RDs. More on deaths in the regions below. Active cases 53,614 Severe 965, down 3 and Critical 751, down 2 NCR ICU 58%, up 1% Regional data: 4A 1,171 NCR 1,154 C Luzon 787 W Visayas 685 Cagayan 591 N Mindanao 489 Zamboanga Pen 346 Ilocos 284 All regions had 100 or over cases. The top 3 regions all had hundreds less cases, C Luzon with more than 600 less than the day before. The NCR with only 15.5% of national cases. N Mindanao put on 272 more cases, W Visayas added 140 more. The top 6 regions gave 65.5% of all cases, down 5% on the day before. In the NCR 8 cities had substantially less cases. QC had 218 less. Paranaque added 33 more, Taguig 23 more. For the NCR bubble provinces Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal all had less cases. Laguna had 46 more to lead with 354. Batangas added 18 more, Pangasinan added 37 more at 101. The NCR bubble share was at 30,7%, down 3%. Selected cities: Bacolod 82, down 46 Baguio 68, up 23 CDO 34, down 98 Cebu 34 Davao 153, down 10 IloIlo 184, up 53 Gensan 63, down 16 Puerto Princesa 24 Tarlac 73, down 104 Zamboanga 85, down 36 Cases rising outside the NCR plus bubble says the DOH U Sec: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/29/...ases-may282021 Yes, we know that! She also says they are monitoring it closely to inform the public. So, for a start, how about simply returning to what you did originally which is to announce regional numbers daily? Some more Luzon death charts from the DOH: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a2574b13a5.jpg CAR https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...60cfc0fb3d.jpg Ilocos https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d63322e244.jpg Bicol Region The CAR has had the most infections, 35k. Ilocos 22k and Bicol only 14k. Deaths in the CAR have fallen, though somewhat erratically, recently, while for Ilocos and Bicol they are probably on a rising trend. Bicol especially seems to be badly affected by reporting delays, judging by its record back to 2020. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A slight reduction in total cases to 7,058 yesterday as tests started at the end of last week have been processed. Four labs late to report. Tests still not keeping up as there was a 1,127 backlog included in the 44.9k results. Positivity up 0,7% at 13.2%. Tests on the way at a similar 42k.
Recoveries 6.9k Deaths high again at 139 of which 80 were initially classified as recoveries. The Philippines case fatality rate up to 1.7%. Severe in a primary hospital 968, up 3. Critical 753, up 2. NCR ICU down 4% to 54%. the National ICU higher at 58%. Regional data: 4A 1,242 NCR 1.189 C Luzon 813 Cagayan 570 W Visayas 477 N Mindanao 348 Davao Region 311 Bicol 287 Zamboanga Pen 286 Calabarzon kept the lead over the NCR by adding 71 more cases over the day before. The NCR at 16.9% of all cases. SOCCSK added 76 more, Davao 47 more, Bicol 52 more and BARMM 30 more. All 3 Visayan regions had less cases. Less cases were also added in the CAR, Ilocos and Cagayan regions. The top 6 regions with 65.7% of all cases. Unchanged. In the NCR 6 cities had more cases and 6 had less. QC stood out with 118 more cases, Valenzuala added 31 more and Muntinlupa 17 more. The top cities were: QC 334, Taguig 112, Manila 89, Caloocan 88, Pasig 80 Provincially Cavite featured with 140 more cases to report 430 cases. Bulacan and Laguna were about the same. Rizal had more than 100 less. Pampanga added 53 more to 154 The NCR bubble at 32.9%, up more than 2%.. Selected cities: Bacolod 79 Baguio 58 CDO 127, up 93 Cebu 44 Davao 181, up 28 IloIlo 99, down Gensan 63 P Princesa 17 Zamboanga 96, up 11 Bohol 37 Angeles 26 Tarlac 36 Vaccination roll out details from ABS CBN Data Analytics: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...812ef8f1ce.jpg Davao has only used 35% of vaccines supplied. CAR and E Visayas 64%. In the NCR: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...22405dd63a.jpg QC and Manila unsurprisingly the NCR cities which have vaccinated the most. Caloocan with a population about half a million less than Manila lagging. Note that Pasig,Taguig, Makati and Las Pinas seem to have concentrated on first doses. More analysis of regional covid deaths: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b5057e185e.jpg E Visayan deaths rising recently. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ab614bea89.jpg N Mindanao showing reporting delays but clearly covid deaths on the rise recently. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a2f9ff798e.jpg CARAGA also with a steep recent rise in covid deaths. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0ebd99f526.jpg SOCCSKSARGEN with steep recent rise in deaths https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d2ad692490.jpg Zamboanga Pen with a record of reporting delays. Recent steep rise. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ce341e3d84.jpg BARMM...Oh dear! https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1 OCTA worried and rightly so about a covid surge in the Visayas and Mindanao making the point that it could re-infect the NCR, where the R estimate has increased from 0.5 back up to 0.68 recently. Positivity there just under 10%. With only 4.5M doses administered to the nation so far this is a distinct possibility. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday cases down somewhat at the start of the weekend depressing effect on testing. So 6,684 cases, 3 labs late. Positivity up 0.5% to 13.7% out of 44.3k tests. Results included a backlog of 618. Tests in preparation from the weekend much lower at 30.6k.
Recoveries at 6.1k. Deaths 107 and 57 of them RDs. Active cases 54,290 and 977 patients in a Severe condition, up 9, 760 Critical, up 7. NCR ICU 53%, down 1% (57% nationally). Reginal data (300 cases and over) NCR 972 4A 934 C Luzon 753 W Visayas 684 N Mindanao 419 C Visayas 388 SOCCSK 370 Davao 333 Only 3 regions in the 100s, none below 100. The NCR had 200 plus less cases and was at a low 14.5% of cases. Region 4A fell more, by 300 plus cases. The W and C Visayas regions both put on more than 200 new cases. E Visayas added 44 more. SOCCSK added over 90 more and N Mindanao added 71 more. CARAGA had 42 more than the previous day. The top 6 regions had 62.1% of all cases, a fall of 3.6% In the NCR Pasig had 53 more cases. QC's cases fell by 99. QC 235, Pasig 133, Manila 97, Caloocan 86, Makati 75 Provincially Bulacan, Cavite and Laguna all reported less cases, Rizal had 11 more. The share of the NCR bubble went down nearly 6% to 27.1% of total cases. Laguna had by far the most cases at 307. Also noteworthy was that Batangas reported 84 more cases at 302. For selected cxities: Bacolod 137, up 58 Baguio 43 CDO 220, up 93 Cebu 36 Cotabato 45 Davao 171 IloIlo 129, up 30 GenSan up 12 P Princesa 27 Zamboanga 82, down 14 Bohol 105, up 68 Angeles 37 Tarlac 86, up 50 Quarantine areas: A presentational cock up on the duration but NCR plus stays under "GCQ plus heightened restrictions" until mid June. This gives the national situation: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/31/...-2021-mecq-gcq On vaccination hesitancy: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/31/...-hesitancy-doh The DOH do need to educate the public, but also to tell the truth about the lower and more doubtful general efficacy of Chines vaccines. Explain that they will mainly give good protection against severe illness and death. They probably won't admit that. I think another factor here is that people have been generally keeping away from doctors and hospitals for over a year now. Some with chronic conditions may be wondering, with some justification, if having the vaccine will lead to a bad side effect. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Agree totally on the need for the authorities to place greater emphasise on public education. Reinforcing the message regarding preventing infection, and accurate information regarding the efficacy of all available vaccines.
I sense that there is suspicion regarding Sinovax(60% efficacy?) among the population. The South China Sea problem perhaps reinforces that. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The Sinovac shot seems to be more accepted in other countries, so yes , I agree special factors like the S China Sea, China's role in illegal drugs, their flouting of labour laws, dominance in business etc apply here.
This Bloomberg article suggests the real world performance of the vaccine is better than the trial data; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...al-world-study The main argument should be there isn't much choice here now and won't be for some time. I think the leader here would also like to say that we need to use their vaccine to keep close and get the benefits of more infrastructure, keep the US offering more assistance, playing one super power off against the other. But he may be realising that is now believed by many fewer people here than a few years ago. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A much lower total of 5,177 reported yesterday. A combination of the test depressing weekend effect and that 10 labs were late in submitting. Why so many? The result being that yesterday's sample of infections is a particularly unrepresentative one. Some evidence that NCR results were the ones mostly affected, but there was also a strange result from E Visayas, where only 13 new cases were reported, far below recent numbers, eg 198 the day before.
Positivity 11.7% from 37k samples. A backlog of 851 included. Tests on the way lower at 35k. Recoveries 6.2k Deaths lower at 46 with 15 RDs Active cases at 53,203 with 958 Severe, down 19 and 745 Critical, down 15. NCR ICU at 53%, unchanged. Nationally 59%, up 2%. Regional data (200 and over) 4A 817 C Luzon 776 NCR 653 Cagayan 569 W Visayas 408 SOCCSK 370 N Mindanao 361 Davao 209 A more than 300 fall in the NCR, put the area in an unusual 3rd position. Also a more than 100 fall in 4A. But C Luzon was up by 23 cases. Nearly all other regions were down except BARMM, up 40 to 148 and SOCCSK, which repeated 370. NCR at a very low 12.6% of all cases. The top 6 regions 69.4%, up over 7% In the NCR all cities were down. Top 4: QC 182, Paranaque 84, Manila 71, Taguig 46 The NCR bubble provinces were all down except Cavite, which had 73 more to lead with 268. Pampanga had just 2 less than the day before at 169. Quezon province had 36 more at 94. The NCR bubble was at 26.3%, down a little. For selected cities: Bacolod 71 Baguio 20 CDO 100 Cebu 30 Cotabato 44 Davao 154 GenSan 96 (75 were announced yesterday) IloIlo 40 P Princesa 29 up 2 Zamboanga 65 Bohol 75 Angeles 31 Tarlac 68 Nearly all down, many substantially. Quarantine areas change: Some cities and areas in Mindanao were put up into MECQ at short notice, https://www.rappler.com/nation/minda...q-short-notice A worsening situation in MIndanao has been evident for some weeks now. A reluctance by the leader to show up Mindanao again, as with Davao's surge last year. Davao is also now seeing a strong resurgence and it will be interesting to see what happens there with the Quarantine level. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ace3f7c048.jpg Davao Region Related to this the President wants to divert vaccines from the NCR area to the Visayas and Mindanao to try to abate the covid rise in those regions. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/01/...sayas-mindanao "...most of the bulk (?) of people in the NCR have already been vaccinated" he says. Unclear exactly what the President means but the vaccine Czar, Galvez, has said that 10 million adults in the NCR need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity there, preferably twice. Let's assume the President means half herd immunity, 5M. So far the Philippines has only done 5M doses in the whole of the country, only about one fifth have been dosed twice. Not true! The President likes to have it both ways, but there's not enough vaccine available. The NCR is the economic hub. Mindanao is his political and emotional interest. Someone needs to tell him he has to choose which he needs to concentrate on first. Variants: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b07272e4b9.jpg Dr John talking about a surprise and dangerous new variant from Vietnam. Finally, the latest national DOH chart: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c48b14bb50.jpg Levelling nationally.. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Aside from the principle content of this thread. Good news UK had zero C-19 deaths yesterday. Bad news is that we may be seeing the start of major C-19 outbreaks throughout SE Asia. Worrying trends in Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos. Myanmar an exception (if true) and Singapore seemingly under control.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yes, add to that list Taiwan. Even Indonesia now showing at least a pause in its downward trend. No one believes the Myanmar numbers after the coup.
For the UK I do hope they postpone the June 21 relaxation. Gentle rises are dangerous. In late August last year cases were much lower than now at only 1k a day but starting to gently rise They reached 2k daily at the end of the first week of September, then tripled daily by the end of September. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a similar weekend effect low number, 5,257, with 3 labs only late. Positivity of 12.8% from 37.8k tests. More up to date as backlog included only 416. Tests on the way higher at 41.3k. But Typhoon Dante may reduce the testing effort.
Recoveries 6.3k. Deaths high at 146, 85 of them RDs. Active cases 52,132 and Severe 991, up 33, Critical 782, up 43. A large change after many days with little. NCR ICU at 50%, down 3%, nationally 57%, down 2%. Regional data (200 and over) NCR 954 4A 775 C Luzon 533 W Visayas 391 Davao 368 N Mindanao 340 Bicol 257 Cagayan 250 Zamboanga 230 CAR 208 NCR up about 300 and at 18.1% of all cases. 4A was down a little but C Luzon went down by over 200 cases. Five other regions were down. Seven other regions were up significantly. Davao by 159 and Zamboanga by 130 both stood out. The top 6 regions at 64%, down 5%. In the NCR 11 cities had significantly more cases. Paranaque had 58 more than the day before, which itself was high. Unusually high numbers recently. Caloocan had 32 more. QC 222, Paranaque 142, Manila 98, Makati 76 Provincially changes were generally modest. For the NCR bubble provinces Rizal was noteworthy with an increase of 35 Cavite 285, Laguna 183, Rizal 147 and Bulacan 146 Elsewhere Batangas was up 25 to 150. Quezon province only reported 7 new cases. Pampanga reported about 100 less cases than the day before. NCR bubble at 32.6%, up 6% For selected cities: Bacolod 109, up Baguio 124, up over 100 CDO 97 Cebu 11 Cotabato 33 Davao 226, up over 70 Gen San 24 IloIlo 49 P Princesa 9 Zamboanga 49, down Bohol 42, down 32 Angeles 21 Tarlac 39, both down In the NCR: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a9735e5ac2.jpg NCR downward trend leveling somewhat.. The OCTA group estimate R there last week at 0.68, up from 0.57. Daily average cases increase of 8% on the week before. They estimate the Daily Attack Rate at 8.22 per 100k, To put this in some perspective DAR of 8 and up to 12 can only be seen in the UK in places where the Indian variant has got a moderate hold. Eg Hounslow in W London. Other areas where the Indian variant has more spread can have higher DARs eg Luton 10, Leicester 12 and up to Bolton 54. But most other areas are now much lower than 8. Given the recent falls in testing, which haven't been explained ...except for some vague comments about increased antigen tests...and the delays with the data, slow roll out of vaccination the NCR continues to be clearly at moderate risk. On vaccination: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ng-second-dose Given the first dose was probably Sinovac that is a concern. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Where do they get their R rates from, are they just kidding themselves. The UK has not dropped much below 1 for months with a fraction of the new cases compared to the Philippines.
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Re: NCR llockdown
I wonder about that too. They never say how they work it out but of the elements is contact tracing data, which seems to be of much lower quality than the UKs, which itself has been criticised a lot. All you can say is however they do it they got a higher number for last week.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday nearly 2k more cases, 4 labs late. backlog over 1k so not very up to date. Positivity from 44.2k was a much higher 14%. Something missing from news reports! Tests on the way higher at 47.4k.
Recoveries 3.5k. Deaths high again at 199, 141 of them the strange RDs. News organisations here give out the information on all these RDs day after day but never say anything more. Is it all simply that certain deaths are listed as recovered pending further investigation? That would also be weird but may be following a set down procedure. Active cases 55,790. up more than 3k. Severe up 13 at 1,004 and Critical down 1 at 781 NCR ICU at 49%, down 1% (Nationally 56%, down 1%) Regional data: NCR 1,218 C Luzon 954 W Visayas 847 4A 784 Davao 426 Cagayan 404 Zamboanga 386 N Mindanao 337 NCR rose by 266, C Luzon by over 400 but Region 4A had just a few more cases to be in 4th position as W Visayas more than doubled its cases (see below for more). Cagayan added just over 150 more cases. Zamboanga put on 156 more. Illocos more than doubled its cases to 285. Top 6 regions 64.2%,, unchanged. In the NCR Caloocan added 113 more over the day before. A coincidence for QC. It had exactly the same number of cases as the day before. (?) Other cities with significantly more cases were Las Pinas. Muntinlupa, Pasig and Taguig. QC 222, Caloocan 171, Manila 96, Pasig 88, Las Pinas 87, Paranaque 86 Provincially in the NCR bubble Bulacan and Laguna had some more cases, Cavite and Rizal some less. Elsewhere it was noteworthy that Pampanga had nearly 100 more and Pangasinan 46 more. NCR bubble 26.6% of all cases, down 6%. Selected cities: Bacolod 122 Baguio 15, down CDO 80 Cebu 34 Cotabato 34 Davao 294, up 68 Gen San 59 IloIlo 227, up 178 P Princesa 22 Zamboanga 120, up 71 Bohol 28 Angeles 45 Tarlac 104 , up by 65 The Philippines spending P100m on a study which will just duplicate results from many other bigger and better studies in countries far ahead with vaccination and choice of vaccines. https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...9-vaccines-pgh The covid situation in the Philippines: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1 Dr De Guzman giving a good summary of the situation but notice she wants to downplay the recent rises in the Visayas ("infections increasing gradually"). Looking at the two worst regions there: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...83afe8e738.jpg W Visayas...gradual increase? https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ce6dc67c67.jpg E Visayas... also increasing at a fast rate. True, cases in the Central Visayas are falling but we should also include MIMAROPA, a collection of smaller islands with 1,159 active cases and a small population. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0c5420d121.jpg MIMAROPA For comparison E Visayas 1,682 active cases, C Visayas 1,896 and W Visayas 4,735. Total 9,472. The Visayas has 17% of current active cases, Luzon 61% and Mindanao 22%. But taking into account population the 3 main parts of the country look a lot closer: Luzon 565 active cases per M Visayas 451 MIndanao 438 So while infections in Luzon have fallen recently, with a very recent slight upward trend recently, the Visayas and Mindanao are catching up quickly. The pandemic is nowhere near being controlled nationally. This has implications for education as the President is currently being pressed to allow face to face education trials to start in areas of the country with low infection rates. The Philippines standing out in Asia in not having physical classes still. But there are many less of those now than there were when he decided to delay those trials late last year. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Marikina Health Office has called me for my first anti C-19 vaccination for 07.00 Monday 7th June. I was very pleased to receive the SMS message. As I did contract C-19 my antibody count will be significantly higher than those that had not contracted C-19. A Canadian study shows that after my second dose my antibody count will not increase significantly which begs the question whether my second dose is really necessary (I will be taking my second dose) . After the second dose people who had contracted C-19 will have 10 times more antibodies than those who did not contract C-19.
This study is on going and also makes the point that people who contracted SARS 1 in the early 2000's still posses antibodies which provide high levels of immunity. Let us all hope that this SAR 2 will follow suit. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13013826)
Marikina Health Office has called me for my first anti C-19 vaccination for 07.00 Monday 7th June. I was very pleased to receive the SMS message. As I did contract C-19 my antibody count will be significantly higher than those that had not contracted C-19. A Canadian study shows that after my second dose my antibody count will not increase significantly which begs the question whether my second dose is really necessary (I will be taking my second dose) . After the second dose people who had contracted C-19 will have 10 times more antibodies than those who did not contract C-19.
This study is on going and also makes the point that people who contracted SARS 1 in the early 2000's still posses antibodies which provide high levels of immunity. Let us all hope that this SAR 2 will follow suit. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mzOf6Cj3T-8 |
Re: NCR llockdown
No doubt it will be another few months before definitive analyses are published. The problem the world faces are with politicians ignoring the science. Bozo and Tony Hancock are the greatest exponents.
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The Origin of Covid - People or Nature?
Here’s a link to an interesting article on the subject. I’m not seeking to detract from the OP’s regular updates so if the moderators or the OP think this post would be better off moved elsewhere or to a new thread, please take the necessary action. I found it to be an interesting, well written article. A tad heavy on the scientific jargon at times but still a very well laid out, easy to follow argument. I’ve included a few extracts below in italics for members who don’t want to read the whole article but would appreciate a brief overview. As the author says, members will form their own opinions. https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-...-box-at-wuhan/
Where we are so far? Lab Escape from Wuhan The available evidence leans more strongly in one direction than the other. Readers will form their own opinion. But it seems to me that proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence. It’s documented that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were doing gain-of-function experiments designed to make coronaviruses infect human cells and humanized mice. This is exactly the kind of experiment from which a SARS2-like virus could have emerged. The researchers were not vaccinated against the viruses under study, and they were working in the minimal safety conditions of a BSL2 laboratory. So escape of a virus would not be at all surprising. In all of China, the pandemic broke out on the doorstep of the Wuhan institute. The virus was already well adapted to humans, as expected for a virus grown in humanized mice. It possessed an unusual enhancement, a furin cleavage site, which is not possessed by any other known SARS-related beta-coronavirus, and this site included a double arginine codon (CGG-CGG) also unknown among beta-coronaviruses. What more evidence could you want, aside from the presently unobtainable lab records documenting SARS2’s creation? Natural Emergence Proponents of natural emergence have a rather harder story to tell. The plausibility of their case rests on a single surmise, the expected parallel between the emergence of SARS2 and that of SARS1 and MERS. But none of the evidence expected in support of such a parallel history has yet emerged. No one has found the bat population that was the source of SARS2, if indeed it ever infected bats. No intermediate host has presented itself, despite an intensive search by Chinese authorities that included the testing of 80,000 animals. There is no evidence of the virus making multiple independent jumps from its intermediate host to people, as both the SARS1 and MERS viruses did. There is no evidence from hospital surveillance records of the epidemic gathering strength in the population as the virus evolved. There is no explanation of why a natural epidemic should break out in Wuhan and nowhere else. There is no good explanation of how the virus acquired its furin cleavage site, which no other SARS-related beta-coronavirus possesses, nor why the site is composed of human-preferred codons. The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities. The records of the Wuhan Institute of Virology certainly hold much relevant information. But Chinese authorities seem unlikely to release them given the substantial chance that they incriminate the regime in the creation of the pandemic. Absent the efforts of some courageous Chinese whistle-blower, we may already have at hand just about all of the relevant information we are likely to get for a while. Chinese authorities. China’s central authorities did not generate SARS2, but they sure did their utmost to conceal the nature of the tragedy and China’s responsibility for it. They suppressed all records at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and closed down its virus databases. They released a trickle of information, much of which may have been outright false or designed to misdirect and mislead. They did their best to manipulate the WHO’s inquiry into the virus’s origins, and led the commission’s members on a fruitless run-around. So far they have proved far more interested in deflecting blame than in taking the steps necessary to prevent a second pandemic. Virologists You might think the SARS2 pandemic would spur virologists to re-evaluate the benefits of gain-of-function research, even to engage the public in their deliberations. But no. Many virologists deride lab escape as a conspiracy theory, and others say nothing. They have barricaded themselves behind a Chinese wall of silence which so far is working well to allay, or at least postpone, journalists’ curiosity and the public’s wrath. Professions that cannot regulate themselves deserve to get regulated by others, and this would seem to be the future that virologists are choosing for themselves. The US role in funding the Wuhan Institute of Virology. From June 2014 to May 2019, Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance had a grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, to do gain-of-function research with coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Whether or not SARS2 is the product of that research, it seems a questionable policy to farm out high-risk research to foreign labs using minimal safety precautions. And if the SARS2 virus did indeed escape from the Wuhan institute, then the NIH will find itself in the terrible position of having funded a disastrous experiment that led to the death of more than 3 million worldwide, including more than half a million of its own citizens. Conclusion People round the world who have been pretty much confined to their homes for the last year might like a better answer than their media are giving them. Perhaps one will emerge in time. After all, the more months pass without the natural emergence theory gaining a shred of supporting evidence, the less plausible it may seem. Perhaps the international community of virologists will come to be seen as a false and self-interested guide. The common sense perception that a pandemic breaking out in Wuhan might have something to do with a Wuhan lab cooking up novel viruses of maximal danger in unsafe conditions could eventually displace the ideological insistence that whatever Trump said can’t be true. |
Re: NCR llockdown
According to Wikipedia the Philippines was the first country outside China to confirm a death from Covid-19. at the end of January 2020. Someone from Wuhan,
Wikipedia also says that Thailand detected the first confirmed case outside China through thermal imaging on January 13, just a day after an announcement from the WHO about the Wuhan outbreak. Followed by other cases. My guess is that travelers from China were bringing the virus here, but undetected, through January too. We're in China's backyard and a policy of cultivating more links has been pursued over the last few years while at the same time turning a blind eye to their many nefarious activities. Whether to get infrastructure built, plane loads of tourists or business deals. But the people and government here have to be more aware of the nature of the Chinese regime and the special risks you are open to when dealing with it. What's coming out about Wuhan will just confirm what many already understand but will be useful to convince more of those who up to now have not. And to appreciate more what is offered by Western countries. Astra Zeneca's vaccine is the only one not offered for a profit or anything else, |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a couple of hundred plus more cases at 7,450. Five labs late. Eight hundred backlog. Positivity remains high at 13.6%. Tests in the pipeline about the same at 47.4k.
Recoveries 2,4k, that's the lowest daily total since mid April. Deaths maintaining the high numbers recently at 181 with 119 of them RDs. So active cases at 60,194, the highest for a month. Severe 973, down 31 and Critical 790, up 9. NCR ICU at 50%, plus 1% (Nationally 56%, unchanged). Regional data: (400 and over) 4A 1,169 NCR 1,118 C Luzon 703 W Visayas 695 N Mindanao 539 Cagayan 515 C Visayas 467 SOCCSK 404 Region 4A added nearly 400 more, C Luzon fell by about 250. C Visayas and N Mindanao both added about 200 more. No region reported less than 100. The NCR at a low 15% of all cases, down nearly 2%. The top 6 regions made up 63.6% of all cases, down a little. In the NCR 3 cities were significantly down, 5 were up. The rest about the same. QC added 73, Pasay 23. Paranaque had one more and maintained its recent higher level of cases. QC 295, Manila 103, Taguig 101, Paranaque 87 and Pasig 85 Provincially all the NCR bubble provinces increased, Laguna by 140 and Bulacan was up by more than 100. Elsewhere Batangas had 72 more. Pangasinan had about 60 less. Laguna 368. Cavite 332, Bulacan 188 and Rizal 127. NCR bubble area at 28.6% of all cases, up 2%. Selected cities: Bacolod 145, up 23 Baguio 20 CDO 179, up 100! Cebu 34 Cotabato 32 Davao 175, down 120 IloIlo 125, down 10 GenSan 84, up 25 P Princesa 13, down Zamboanga 64, down 56 Bohol 121, up nearly 100 Angeles 11, down 34 Tarlac 29, down 75​​​​ https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/04/...ntos-june-2021 At last Davao City's Quarantine level upped. |
Re: NCR llockdown
About 500 less cases announced yesterday at 6,955. Just two labs late. Positivity slightly lower at 13.2% from 48.7k cases. The backlog included was only 531. Tests on the way lower at 41.2k.
Recoveries at 8.1k. (see below for more on recoveries and long covid). Deaths again high at 195 with 102 RDs. It came to the point where the DOH had to say something about these RDs: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/05/...ines-june52021 A very poor attempt at an explanation but it looks like thousands of people getting covid away from urban areas here are simply not monitored, are assumed to have recovered, maybe to improve the statistics, then later found out to have died. It doesn't bear thinking about. The U Sec does not even promise any action. Active cases at 59,543 In primary hospitals: Severe at 1.012, up 39 and 774 Critical, down 16. In the NCR ICU % at 51, up 1 (Nationally 58, up 2) Regional data: (300 and over) NCR 1.096 C Luzon 966 4A 896 W Visayas 573 Davao 428 N Mindanao 400 C Visayas 374 Ilocos 366 CARAGA 305 Just one region MIMAROPA was under 100 at 92. NCR down a little but up at 15.8% of all cases. C Luzon was up more than 250 cases but 4A had nearly 300 less. Noteworthy that the Illocos region had over 200 more cases than the day before. W Visayas had 78 more. N Mindanao had 140 less and SOCCSK had 127 less. The top 6 regions at 62.7% of all cases, down 1%. In the NCR 6 cities had significantly more cases and 6 had less. Caloocan added 58 more than the day before, Pasig 20. QC added 95 less. QC 200, Manila 122, Caloocan 109, Taguig 91, Paranaque 77, Makati 76 Provincially in the NCR bubble Bulacan and Rizal had 50 and 31 more cases than the day before. But Cavite had nearly 200 less and Laguna nearly 100 less. Laguna 269, Bulacan 240, Rizal 158 and Cavite 143. Cavite with an unusually low report. Elsewhere Pangasinan had 48 more at 114. The NCR bubble was at 27.4% of all cases, down 1%. For selected cities: Bacolod 59, down Baguio 47, up CDO 127, down over 50 Cebu 43, up Cotabato 79, up 47 Davao 222, up 47 IloIlo 123 GenSan 80 P Princesa 15 Zamboanga 56, down Bohol 58, down 63 Angeles 28, up Tarlac 99, up 70 DOH spox giving out wrong info: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/heal...uced-1.4584636 I have looked and I cannot see any such change recommended for AZ in the UK. But in Ireland, yes: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/heal...uced-1.4584636 More immunity from a longer interval between AZ has been firmly established. So is the idea here to avoid vaccine waste when people don't come back? Shelf life 6 months, but much less if vials are opened. Or they're desperate to get the numbers up? Face Shields: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...d?ocid=BingHPC The argument that they add something to protection is not one which is used in other areas. So road injuries and fatalities could be greatly reduced if a maximum speed of 30mph was enforced on all roads. Would that be a sensible measure, given the inconvenience? So is the inconvenience worth it to reduce getting infected and transmitting the virus in outdoor public places? Such evidence that there is is from laboratory experiments, not much from the real world use of face shields, contrary to mask wearing. Then factors such as bad fitting, observational problems, heat etc come in. The Philippines is one of the very few countries making faces shields mandatory outside and in public transport. That should tell them something here. There is a much stronger argument for requiring them in some indoor spaces eg hospitals. Recoveries and long covid: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...03aa39decb.jpg Dr John presenting some data on long covid recently. With so many in the UK still reporting long covid symptoms after a year I wonder what is happening here. When all the recoveries are announced here are they without any continuing symptoms? Is there any monitoring? I would guess the answers here are generally no to both of those questions. The UK report said that 19% of people with long covid after a year had their activities limited "a lot". Interestingly the age group more likely to report symptoms was 35 to 69 years ie people in the workforce. Internationally: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ac2d9f6059.jpg New cases from June 3 showing a high position (but note lower than Malaysia). Case number was adjusted down 12 from that announced on the day. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 273 more cases added compared to the day before. Not so up to date as the results included a backlog of nearly 1,500 cases. Three labs late. Positivity the same at 13.2% from 43.4k tests. Tests on the way a lower 41.4k.
Recoveries 7.4k. Deaths at 166 with 109 of them RDs. Severe cases 1009, down 3 and Critical 771, also down 3. NCR ICU % at 51, nationally 58, both unchanged. Regional data: (300 and over) 4A 1,046 NCR 957 W Visayas 768 C Luzon 757 N Mindanao 467 Cagayan 435 C Visayas 359 CARAGA 323 E Visayas 307 No region was below 100. The NCR was down about 150 and with only 13.2% of all cases, 4A was up about 150 and C Luzon by over 200 cases. Other big increases were in W Visayas, up by a little less than 200 and Cagayan, up by over 150. Top 6 regions at 61.3% of all cases, down 1.4%. For NCR cities there were no large increase. Manila added 16 and Marikina 11 more over the day before. Caloocan, Paranaque, Pasig and QC all had about 30 less cases.. Top 6: QC 171, Manila 138, Makati 84, Caloocan 79, Pasig 77, Taguig 69 cases. NCR bubble at 27.2% of all cases, unchanged. Provincially Cavite cases rose by over 200 over the day before. Cavite 355, Laguna 255, Bulacan 195 and Rizal 117. New Pampanga cases fell by 43 to 106. For selected cities: Bacolod 216, up over 150 Baguio 38 down 9 CDO 107, down 20 Cebu 33 down 10 Cotabato 41. down 38 Davao 222, down 24 GenSan 64, down 16 IloIlo 23, down 18 P Princesa up 19 Zamboanga up 15 Bohol 101, up 43 Angeles 73, up 45 Tarlac 80, down 19 https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d2bd5f9ab9.jpg Bacolod's main testing centre positivity. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/06/...igh-risk-areas A difficult balancing act distributing meagre vaccine supplies around the country as the NCR is still at what the OCTA group calls "Moderate risk" with positivity at just under 10% and testing down. We can also safely say that this description also applies to the heavily populated provinces around Manila, including not just Bulacan, the one C Luzon province in the NCR bubble area, but also to the C Luzon province of Pampanga and in the south to Batangas province. |
Re: NCR llockdown
As expected many less new cases on a Monday, nearly 700 fewer, at 6,539. Also 7 labs late to submit. The backlog was smaller at 539. But positivity remains stubbornly at over 13%, (13.3).
Tests were 45k, but coming along are only 27.6k. Recoveries at 7k. Deaths down from recent high numbers at 71.....21 of them RDs. In hospital: Severe 1001, down 8 and Critical 765, down 6 ICU: NCR 49%, down 2% (Nationally 56%, down 2% also) Regional data (300 and over) 4A 1,049 NCR 809 W Visayas 692 C Luzon 648 Cagayan 423 C Visayas 415 Davao 370 No region reported below 100 cases and 6 regions were in the 200s. Region 4A had only 3 more cases than the day before but the NCR and C Luzon both fell by more than 100. So 4A maintained its top position. Seven other regions had less cases. The other regions with more cases were: Davao with 71 more The CAR 70 C Visayas 56 Bicol 53 Ilocos 43 MIMAROPA 21 NCR at 12.4% of all cases. 4A at 16% (14.5% the day before). For NCR cities 11 had less cases and only one, Pasig , showed a significant increase of 38. Manila had 74 less. Top cities: QC 153, Pasig 105, Makati 82, Manila 64, Taguig 62 Provincially in the NCR bubble Bulacan was the only province with less cases the other 3 provinces had more. Laguna added 74 to 329, Cavite 72 to 283, Rizal 34 to 151. The NCR bubble had 25.8% of all cases, down 1.4%. Pampanga added 80 to 186. Batangas added 17 to 200. Selected cities: Bacolod 58, down Baguio 95, up 57 CDO 136, up 29 Cebu 40, up Cotabato 60, up Davao 213, up 15 GenSan 98, up 34 IloIlo 111, up P Princesa 24, down Zamboanga 43, down Bohol 78, down Angeles 20, down Tarlac 49, down Zambales 44, down https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...j?ocid=BingHPC Yes, the data recording the spread of infection to Mindanao has been on this thread. But given increases in parts of the Visayas and N Luzon plus those in areas around the NCR we are moving to a "doughnut" shape pandemic here. Something much more difficult to cope with than in 2020, when there was one clear epicenter, the NCR. Later in the year the Visayas had a secondary major outbreak, which however never rivalled the NCR's status as the epicentre. This geographically spread situation is now posing major problems for treatment, testing and prevention. Incidents like this can generate large numbers of infections: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/07/...bo-sa-covid-19 Let's not completely forget the NCR. The OCTA report calculates the latest R slightly up at 0.74 (0.68 for the week before) and positivity still nearly 10%. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a depressed total as usual from weekend testing of 4,777. Ten labs did not report on time. The DOH kindly estimate these could have added about 150 cases. Positivity at 14.3%, the highest since May 4. A backlog of 600 was included in yesterday's results. Tests coming along at 27.6k.
Recoveries 7.1k. Deaths 95 with 40 of them RDs. Philippines case fatality rate now at 1.72%. Hospital: Severe 960, down 41. Critical 734, down 31. NCR ICU at 53% up 4% (nationally 58%, up 2%. Locational data: 6.50 am and not yet provided by the DOH. Will report later. Bicol, a region at the southern end of Luzon reported until recently a regular 2 digits of new cases daily. The last 3 days 272, 219 and 138. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9e3f3a26ec.jpg Bicol Compare with Cavite, with the largest provincial population less than Bicol's by about 2M and close to the epicentre of the NCR: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8a809d9317.jpg Cavite cases falling.. Active cases now in Cavite are at about 2,200 and have fallen by over 70% since April 16. Active cases in Bicol are now over 1,800 and have grown by 25% since April 22. At present active cases per M in Cavite at about 440 and Bicol 260. We can expect that gap to close over the next few months. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH have finally released some locational detail:
Top 6 regions: 4A 669 C Luzon 518 NCR 489 W Visayas 438 Davao 335 N Mindanao 319 No regions had below100 cases. Region 4A was at 14% of national cases. All regions had less cases except: CAR up 72 to 189 SOCCSK up 64 to 305 Davao up 36 Top 6 at 57.9%,, down over 3% In the NCR all cities had less cases with most having under 40: Top 3 cities: QC 127, Manila 83, Caloocan 42, Paranaque 38 For the NCR bubble provinces, all had about the same number of cases. All had less cases except Rizal, which reported 29 more. Bulacan 157, Cavite 154, Laguna 149 and Rizal 146 NCR bubble at 22.9%, down over 4% With the fall in NCR cases the NCR bubble becoming somewhat irrelevant as an epicentre region. Cities: Bacolod 196, high but 20 less Bohol 73, down CDO 53, down 48 Davao 98, down 100 IloIlo 25, down 80 Zamboanga 98, up 27 |
Re: NCR llockdown
A higher number of new cases at 5,462, but 8 labs were late to report. Positivity at 12.6%, down a little from 39.8k tests but a higher 49.5k in preparation. Reasonably up to date with a backlog of 449 included. Although there are always several days lag due to LGU and DOH validation processes.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f3ad486ddb.jpg The number of Individuals tested steady although cases have fallen off.. Recoveries 7.9k Deaths 126 with 70 RDs. Cases: 54,000 exactly. Hospitals: Severe 972, up 12, Critical 756, up 22 NCR ICU : 53%, nationally 58%. Both unchanged Regional data: (200 and over) NCR back to lead with 377 more cases and 15.9% of all cases. NCR 866 4A 800 W Visayas 561 C Luzon 514 SOCCSK 359 C Visayas 321 Bicol 318 N Mindanao 265 Zamboanga 256 Davao 254 Region 4A up 131 and C Luzon down only by 4 but it was down to 4th place. W Visayas was third and added 123 cases. C Visayas in 6th added 105. Bicol added 111 and made 7th place. Other regions adding cases were Zamboanga, SOCCSK, Illocos and CARAGA. Top 6 regions at 62.6%, up over 4%. In the NCR the great majority of cities had more cases. QC 162, Manila 103, Caloocan 76, Taguig and Paranaque both 63 In the NCR bubble provinces Cavite added 115 more cases, Laguna 41. Rizal had 35 fewer. Cavite 269, Laguna 190, Bulacan 163 and Rizal 111 NCR bubble at 29.3%, up over 3% of all cases. Selected cities: Bacolod 113, down Baguio 37 CDO 70, up Cebu 30 Cotabato 25 Davao 114, down GenSan 39 IloIlo 159, up 134 P Princesa 9 Zamboanga 58, down 40 Bohol 105 up 32 Angeles 21 Zambales 30 Tarlac 38 The case fall in many NCR cities is possibly flattening.. (concentrate on the bars) These are the clearest examples. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cdc31a6623.jpg Caloocan https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...30a2b2dc78.jpg Las Pinas https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e697a88e9b.jpg Makati https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b4b458d29a.jpg Manila https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cf0f1172b0.jpg Muntinlupa https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ac7dc83fbd.jpg Paranaque https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2960e7152d.jpg Taguig https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d373ad53e4.jpg Valenzuala https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0515cfa223.jpg Pasay Pasig, QC , Navotas and Marikina still downward, not showing flattening. For Malabon and Mandaluyong there is only a slight levelling to be seen. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A higher total yesterday as testing increased after the weekend, with over 51.6k tests done. They produced 7,485 positives, a positivity of 12.8%. The backlog included was only 199. A slightly lower 48.7k tests on the way.
Recoveries lower at 4.5k. Deaths 122 with 65 RDs. Severe 968, down 4, Critical 740, down 16 NCR ICU 49%, down 4% (nationally 57%, down 1%) Regional data (300 and over) NCR 1,139 4A 1,052 C Luzon 867 W Visayas 843 Cagayan 494 C Visayas 451 E Visayas 428 Davao 418 CARAGA 347 NCR 15,2% of total. The NCR increased its total more than 4A and C Luzon and maintained first position. Cagayan and E Visayas showed the greatest increases of around 300 on the day, W Visayas had 280 more and Davao 164 more. SOCCSK reported more than 150 less. Illocos had 70 more, The top 6 regions had 64.6% of all cases, down 2%. For the NCR seven cities had substantially more cases and the rest about the same. Caloocan stood out with an increase of 89 on the day before. Top 6: QC 194, Caloocan 165, Manila 140, Pasig 82, Makati 71 and Paranaque 63. For the provinces Cavite had a 169 increase while Laguna and Rizal both fell, the latter by 63. Panpanga increased to 122. Cavite 438, Laguna 250, Bulacan 164 and Rizal 127. The NCR bubble at 28.3%, down 1%. Selected cities: Bacolod 52, down Baguio 12, down CDO 125, up 55 Cebu 45, up Cotabato 3, down Davao 255, up 141 GenSan 64, up IloIlo 126, down P Princesa 7 Zamboanga 78, up 20 Bohol 109, up Angeles 41, up Tarlac 53, up Zambales 27, down https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/10/...uwagan-palasyo Its not much better there but it looks like MM and around will soon move to GCQ for economic reasons. The government does not want to pay out more ayuda than what is planned under the forthcoming Bayanihan 3. But these restriction levels are becoming meaningless as some measures are either heightened or retained after a move. Then LGUs in the same area can impose different restrictions. Eg In Tagaytay strictly 20% maximum indoor dining capacity. But only 20kms away in another Cavite Mall it was 50%. A study on temperature and virus transmission from Imperial College"Warmer regions should not expect to ease mobility restrictions before colder regions, especially because "warmer regions tend to have higher population densities - for example, the population in Florida is more densely packed than in Minnesota," coauthor Will Pearse said in a statement. Lockdowns have stronger effects than either temperature or population density, his team reported. Because temperature changes have a much smaller effect on transmission than policy interventions, "while people remain unvaccinated, governments mustn't drop policies like lockdowns and social distancing just because a seasonal change means the weather is warming up," said coauthor Dr. Tom Smith. The study also suggests "that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to the virus spreading more easily in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes." -- Reuters" Internationally: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3315cd7715.jpg The Philippines has moved up a few places recently... For new cases yesterday: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6cf01851f2.jpg A little more than the UK and 8th in the world. Note the Indonesian and Malaysian numbers. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39b357b530.jpg Malaysia second wave. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...172d7a09e2.jpg Cases in Indonesia have been again on the rise despite a much more advanced vaccination roll out than by its neighbours. According to John Hopkins the Philippines is the laggard with only 1.5% of its population fully vaccinated, 6.1M shots administered in total. Malaysia has done better with 3.8% fully vaccinated and 3.9M shots, but not enough to prevent a second wave. Indonesia has fully vaccinated 4.2% of its population and given 30M shots, but facing a recent uptick in infections. Blamed on variants and increased travel for religious reasons. Vaccinations to be offered to anyone over 18 years of age in Jakarta. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday about 800 less new cases and only 3 labs not reporting. Positivity was up 0.5% at 13.3% from 49.4k individuals tested and included a small backlog of 120 results, So up to date. Tests coming along slightly higher at 51.5k.
Recoveries low at 3.2k. Deaths again high at 96 with 127 RDs. Case fatality up at 1,73%. So Active cases up to 61,345. The highest since May 8. The DOH said that 1k of those were changed from Recovered to Active! The first time they have announced a bulk amount of people re-infected or miss diagnosed subtracted from recoveries. In primary hospitals: Severe 1043, up 75 (!!) and 736 Critical, down 4 NCR ICU: 50%,(National 58%)....both up 1% Regional data: (300 and over) 4A 983 NCR 860 C Luzon 583 W Visayas 567 E Visayas 543 C Visayas 373 Davao 368 SOCCSK 326 Cagayan 312 Region 4A came back to lead with 14.7% of cases. But all the top 4 regions had less cases. E Visayas surprised to get 5th place with 115 more cases. SOCCSK had 130 more cases. The top 6 regions had 58.5% of all cases, down 6%. There were 5 regions in the 200s and only BARMM had a number of cases in 2 digits. In the NCR 8 cities had less cases and 6 stayed about the same. Only Pasay had significantly more...38. Top 6: QC 172, Taguig 91, Manila 81, Caloocan 72, Paranaque 67, Pasig 64 In the NCR bubble provinces Laguna had substantially more cases, 111 more to give 361. Cavite had 229, Bulacan 200 and Rizal 123. The NCR bubble had 26.5% of all cases, down a little. Elsewhere Pangasinan added 61 more to 128 cases. Batangas added 19 more to 183. Selected cities: Bacolod 180, up 128 Baguio 80, up 68 CDO 115, down Cebu 46 Cotabato 26 Davao 136, down GenSan 82, up IloIlo 94, down P Princesa 21 Zamboanga 33, down Bohol 56, down Angeles 20 Tarlac 69, up Zambales 64, up 37 Palawan https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...covid-19-cases Palawan is in the MIMAROPA region, a collection of islands. Case numbers for its capital Puerto Princesa have been low recently after high numbers a few weeks ago. But they have been higher outside the capital. So yesterday 51 opposed to 21 in the capital. But you wonder about accuracy of the numbers, The DOH report 403 active cases for the island while the local officials say 620. Given Palawan's population is about 1.2M that's about 500 cases per million, a high figure if the local number is the more accurate one. The town of Roxas has the highest number of active cases at 123. Its population is about 70K giving a very high over 1,700 cases per M Likely that other islands are quietly having have similar problems. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...690d0c2cff.jpg MIMAROPA seemed to be on a downward trend but a recent sharp upturn. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday an increase of over 1,300 more cases added to get a total of 8,027. All labs on time. Highest since May 28. But the total includes a backlog of over 1k results so not quite up to date. Positivity still maintaining a high level of 13.1%. Tests were at 53k but those under preparation lower at 50k.
Recoveries 8.9k Deaths 145 with 59 of them RDs. 1.73% is the case fatality rate now. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...76ebc7e14d.jpg A downward trend in national deaths but some levelling lately.. Active cases 60,341 Severe in primary hospitals up 17 to 1,026, Critical up 48(!) to 784 NCR ICU.48%, down 2%, Nationally 57%, down 1% Regional data: (300 and over) 4A 1,147 W Visayas 1,049 C Luzon 848 NCR 807 C Visayas 635 Davao 597 Cagayan 435 Ilocos 352 E Visayas 332 N Mindanao 320 The top 3 regions were all up, W Visayas by close to 500. The NCR was down by over 50 cases. Region 4A maintained its top position with 14.3% of all cases , a little less than the day before. C Visayas put on 362 more and Davao 229 more. Other regions showing sizable increases were CARAGA, Ilocos and Cagayan. Top 6 regions at 63.3% of all cases, up nearly 5%. For NCR cities: 5 had significantly more cases but the increases were moderate. Four had less. Top 6: QC 191, Manila 95, Taguig 66, Pasig 62, Las Pinas 60, Caloocan 53 In the NCR bubble provinces the significant changes were that Bulacan had nearly 50 less but Laguna 80 more cases and led with 281. The bubble area at 20.1% of all cases, a fall of nearly 6% on the day before. Notable changes in nearby provinces were an increase in Batangas of 129 to 312 cases. Quezon province added 94 to 146. North of the NCR Pampanga added 56 to 184. Pangasinan had a few more to report with 141 added. Selected cities: Bacolod 219, up 39 Baguio 63, up CDO 135 up Cebu 52, up Cotabato 16 Davao 208, up 72 GenSan 48, down IloIlo 186, up 92 P Princesa 17 Zamboanga 48 up Bohol 186, up 130! Angeles 54, up Tarlac 32, down Zambales 34, down A good decision: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/11/...-ncr-plus-iatf But in some of these more remote areas where infection rates have been low up to recently some education is needed: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 700 or so less cases as testing ran down at the end of last week. The 7,302 positive results included over 1k previously unannounced. Positivity was down a little to 12.4% from the 50.7k individuals tested.
Recoveries at 7.7k. Deaths continue high at 137 of which 65 were RDs. Active cases down a little less than 500 to 59,865. Severe at 1,078, down 6, Critical 778, also down 6. NCR ICU at 46%, down 2%, but nationally ICU use up !5 to 58%. These figures point to the increasing strain on health facilities outside the NCR. Location data not available at the time of posting. Will update later. Vaccination: The latest plan from Gen Galvez, vaccine Czar, is to, when enough vaccines arrive, fully vaccinate 58M people by the end of the year. Up to June 8 have been 1.7M fully vaccinated, so only 3.4M shots have been administered since March 1. So far about 50k shots a day. If they were able to start now, and of course they can't, its about 200 days left to give 2 shots to each of about 56M people, so about 112M jabs. That's over half a million a day. Britain did 570k on June 12 and has been maintaining a rate of 4-500k a day since the start of April. With vaccine supply uncertain, distribution problems, hesitancy and poor organisation the Philippines cannot get near that. This is not the straight talking expected from a general. Unfortunately when they get into government here they soon copy the politicians. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/13/...-19-cases-soar Places you never heard of before become known a little more because of covid. Digos now probably has a population of nearly 200k. Over 300 active cases is quite a high level, higher than in many NCR cities. Eg Marikina, about average for an NCR city, has about 266 active cases for a population more than twice as large. |
Re: NCR llockdown
As usual a lower 6,426 new cases yesterday after the weekend. Also 10 labs not operating or late. not sure which. Out of the 41.2k tested a higher 13.7% were positive. There was a backlog of 776 results included. Can't tell you tests in preparation number as DOH site still not accessible.
Recoveries 7.2k. Deaths 57 with 10 RDs. Active 59,096. Severe cases in hospital 1,064, down 14 Critical 768, down 10 NCR ICU 47%, up 1%, nationally 58%, unchanged Locations? Firefox says the DOH's site security certificate expired June 14, so for the second day can't get the data. Both Chrome and Firefox won't allow you to take the "risk" and access. Even though personal information, credit cards obviously not involved. My computer date and time are correct. So just have to wait for access to be restored. Manila hospitals https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/14/...d-restrictions Seems the doctors have a different assessment always of how busy they are than indicated by the DOH statistics. Yesterday saying Manila's ICU wards are under half full on average. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/14/...triction-mayor The Dumaguete mayor seems to be blaming travelers from the NCR bubble area for the rise in infections there and in a neighbouring province, but travel out of the bubble area should only be allowed for a number of essential reasons. Were these restrictions properly enforced? Dr John Campbell latest update: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0a0bc769dd.jpg Indian variant contributing to new Indonesia wave. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...51b7e6f0e0.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH must have had a whip round and renewed their security certificate. So here are some location data for yesterday:
Regional 300 and over 4A 940 NCR 832 W Visayas 683 C Luzon 552 Davao 536 N Mindanao 426 SOCCSK 402 E Visayas 312 4A with 14.6% of all cases. Compared with June 12 both N Mindanao and SOCCSK increased by more than a hundred.. The CAR cases doubled. Davao maintained a total in the 500s. C Luzon fell by a little less than 300. C Visayas by a little less than 500. The top 6 had 61.8% of all cases. Down on June 12. NCR cities: QC 162 Manila 110 Taguig 89 Pasig 62 Makati 61 Caloocan 56 Provinces: Laguna 337 Cavite 188 Bulacan 138 Rizal 138 Higher Laguna report. NCR bubble at 25.2% of national cases. Up on June 12. Selected cities: Bacolod 60 Baguio 102 up! CDO 73 Cebu 40 Cotabato 26 Davao 300 up! GenSan 66 IloIlo 128 maintaining high numbers P Princesa 28 Zamboanga 65 Bohol 26 Angeles 23 Tarlac 29 Zambales 72 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 16 labs were off. The DOH say they accounted lately for 7% of positives, which would mean there could have been over 400 more cases. Also the results, 5,389 in number, include 1,153 earlier positives. Positivity higher at 13.9% from a low 30.5K tests on individuals. Tests on the way slightly higher at 34.9k.
Recoveries 6.7k Deaths 118 with 65 RDs. 304 recoveries changed to active Active cases 58,063 Severe 1,045, down 19 and Critical 755, down 13 NCR ICU 46%, down 1% but Nationally 59%, up 1% Regional data (300 and over) 4A 702 C Luzon 547 NCR 479 W Visayas 431 C Visayas 421 N Mindanao 394 SOCCSK 374 E Visayas 325 Significant falls in 8 regions. 4A numbers were more than 200 less. It had 13%of all cases. The NCR had over 350 less. C Visayas had the largest increase.... 276 cases over the previous day. BARMM and Cagayan both had about 30 more. The top 6 regions had 55.2% of all cases, up by nearly 6%. The case numbers in NCR cities neatly all fell. QC 115, Manila 83, Paranaque 46 In the provinces Cavite had 71 more to lead at 259. Bulacan had just 16 more. Laguna case numbers were at 188, a fall of nearly 150. Rizal's fell by 45. The NCR bubble at 21.4% of all cases, down nearly 4%. Selected cities; Bacolod 126, up 66 Baguio 70, down CDO 56, down Cotabato 78, up 52 Davao 126, down GenSan 51, down IloIlo 66, down Puerto Princesa 37 Tacloban 48 Zamboanga 42, down Bohol 142, up 116 Angeles 25 Tarlac 17 Zambales 31 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ceeb9b6cb0.jpg Bohol has a population of about 1.4M, about the same as Caloocan City in the NCR. It also has about the same number of active cases. Changes have been made to Quarantine levels up to June 30: NCR and Bulacan will be placed in the GCQ "with some restrictions", while Rizal, Laguna and Cavite will be in the GCQ "with heightened restrictions." What that exactly means is not clear yet. But the NCR plus bubble area is now one with much more variation in area restrictions.At the same time, 21 areas were subjected to modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) due to the increase in COVID-19 cases:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/15/...ncrplus-june30 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another 5,414 cases, about 1k less but 6 labs late to report. Backlog included was 380, so fairly up to date. Positivity maintaining a high level at 13.7%. From only 36.7k tests. A few thousand more coming along at 43.1k.
Recoveries 7.6k Deaths 158 with 117 RDs. ABS-CBN say that in the last 22 days in only 4 have deaths been under 100. So the latest DOH chart seems to be misleadingly showing a downward trend but this is because many deaths are reported weeks later. I strongly suspect all the RDs, which account for more than half of deaths on some days, are very delayed reports. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2f7d4207a4.jpg Latest National deaths https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7ca469f189.jpg Deaths chart a month ago Notice the addition of deaths above the upward portion of the trend line from a few weeks ago when comparing a month ago with now. There are even some deaths added to weeks well before that. 375 recoveries were changed to active status, Active 56,170 giving 1067 Severe, up 22 and 730 Critical, down 25. ICU NCR at 45%, down 1% and nationally 58%, down 1%. Regional data: (300 and over) 4A 685 NCR 559 N Mindanao 501 Davao 459 W Visayas 455 SOCCSK 430 C Luzon 397 4A at 12.7% of all cases retaining its first position. NCR added 30 cases to stay second but C Luzon reported 150 less to drop to 7th place. Visayan and Mindanao regions taking up 4 of the top 7 places. Davao added 228 and N Mindanao 107. Only one region, BARMM with 59, under 100 cases. Five regions were n the 200s. The top 6 regions accounted for 57% of all cases, up 1.8%. In the NCR no big changes. Pasig added 20 cases and Valenzuala more than doubled to 34. Top 6: QC 110, Manila 65, Makati 57, Las Pinas 54, Pasig 50, Paranaque 43 Provincially in the NCR bubble provinces Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal all had less cases, Cavite stood out with more than 100 less. Laguna added 81 cases to report the most at 279. Batangas added 45 more to 142. Pampanga and Pangasinan both reported about 100 less to 59 and 38 only. NCR bubble with 20.6% of all cases, down. Selected cities: Bacolod 82, down Baguio 128, up 58 CDO 89, up Cebu 68, up 12 Cotabato 23, down Davao 142, up 16 GenSan 47, down IloIlo 63 P Princesa 46, up Zamboanga 54, down Bohol 32, down Angeles 24 Tarlac 52, up Zambales 26, down https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...oh-exec/story/ Common sense at last! Notice they are saying the original edict said "enclosed public places". The word "enclosed" got left out in public pronouncements. A bit like the rule on Seniors to stay at home. That they could go out for essential purposes usually left out. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/16/...laces-doh-exec Mr Vega has been busy. This time muddying the government's message. Trying to give SCs nearly 100% safety at the expense of their physical and mental well being. Do they have to wait many months for 50% of the community to be vaccinated? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday new cases up by well over 1k on the day before to 6,637. Five labs did not submit. Not so up to date as a backlog of 1,350 included. Positivity from the 44.4k individual tests down substantially to 11.9% from the 13% level maintained for some time.
Recoveries lower at 4.6k Deaths at 155 with 107 RDs. 235 "Recoveries" now found to be active Active now 58,407 with 1051 in a Severe condition in primary hospital, down 16. 758 Critical, up 29. NCR ICU use at 46%, up 1%. Nationally down 1% at 57% DOH site down again so no location detail. Will update later if possible. Quarantine areas: Another province, Albay, including Legazpi City, having its quarantine level increased. While resorts in the provinces around Manila have been closed for months I know that the people in Bicol have been enjoying them in the summer: Albay cases have increased by 60% in the past week over the previous one. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/17/...covid-19-cases Face Shields No room for nuance from the country's leader. Or maybe he needs to boost his popularity as things are not going well for him here at present? Now he says face shields only needed in hospitals. But I can see that in some outdoor and indoor situations they could be useful. The DOH appealing and still citing limited laboratory evidence that they boost protection by a few per cent, so they must be a good idea to be worn in "public places" despite their disadvantages. Saying that all along that was "enclosed" public places, when many LGUs mandated them to be worn on top of a mask in many open and well ventilated public places. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/17/...ospitals-sotto Davao statistics; https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/17/...so-ng-covid-19 You wonder sometimes whether the DOH is not reporting the information from LGUs accurately. The Davao region number given by the DOH yesterday was 459 and for Davao City 142. Here it says 725 and 397. Active case numbers also a lot different for the two areas. Perhaps the reporters got the wrong figures or.... A potential presidential candidate is being criticized for a renewed surge in Davao and around. |
Re: NCR llockdown
There seems to be very little being said about the large number of areas moving up to MECQ, that's a major jump. Here in Bataan we have just jumped from MGCQ to MECQ but not a word about increased case numbers or any reason given.
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Re: NCR llockdown
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2b5983234d.jpg
Bataan Cases rising fast for some weeks so late in taking action. Provincial covid tracker site is only up to May11. For a population of about 800k 1,277 active cases on June 15 high compared to many cities in the NCR. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday's regional data: (300 and over)
NCR 958 W Visayas 896 C Luzon 855 Davao 753 4A 702 SOCCSK 398 NCR added 400 to gain top place. W Visayas and C Luzon both gained about 450. Davao gained nearly 300 cases. Statistics seem to have been delayed from there a further day before the DOH announced them. CAR with only 22, unusually low. Top 6 at 68.7%, up over 10% NCR cities: QC 164, Caloocan 137, Makati 91, Manila 91, Taguig 71 Caloocan added over 100 more. QC 54 more. NCR bubble at 26.4%, up nearly 6%. Provinces: Small changes in the NCR bubble provinces. Bulacan 294, Laguna 271, Cavite 145, and Rizal 82 Elsewhere Batangas 182, Pampanga 127, up 68 and Pangasinan, up 27. Bataan 182 Selected cities: Bacolod 169, up 87 Baguio 6 !! CDO 50, down Cebu 74, Cotabato 51 Davao 482, up 340!! GenSan 44 IloIlo 188, up 125 Tacloban 27 Zamboanga 27 Bohol 46 Angeles 11 Tarlac 92, up 40 Zambales 27 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Spent a long time doing todays update. Clicked on Reply but had one too many images. Cut one out. Clicked on reply again. Checked to see if it was posted. It wasn't.
Moderators: Is it possible to get it back? Anyway, no time to redo it. In summary: .yesterday 200 or so more cases. Positivity up to 12.6% 110 deaths. incl 60 RDs. Davao ICU beds at 91%. Top 6 bregions: 4A, NCR, W Visayas, C Visayas, E Visayas and C Luzon...54.1% of all cases, down 14%. Nine regions in the 200s and 300s. NCR: QC 169, Pasig 86, Caloocan 80 NCR bubble areas at 22.5%, down 4% Cities: CDO 124, up 74, Davao 238, down nearly 250, but still high. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Announced on June 19 6,959 new cases. Positivity was the lowest since May 30 at 11.5%. But 6 labs did not report and nearly 1,200 cases were from a backlog. Tests were done on 50.1k persons and 47.4k tests are in process.
Recoveries at 9.4k Deaths 153 with 97 of them RDs. So the case fatality rate here up at 1.74%. 170 recoveries changed to active. Active cases 59,439 In primary hospitals Severe condition 1,011, down 39 and Critical 728, down 13 NCR ICU beds use down 2% to 44%. (Nationally was 59% for June 18). Other June 19 ICU data not yet available. Regional data: Not yet available from the DOH for June 19 but will give missing detail on June 18 and update yesterday's later. All 17 regions: 4A 923 NCR 754 W Visayas 654 C Visayas 462 E Visayas 458 C Luzon 445 Davao 420 N Mindanao 419 SOCCSK 386 Zamboanga Pen 376 Cagayan 357 Ilocos 313 CARAGA 271 Bicol 206 MIMAROPA 164 CAR 117 BARMM 95 4A top at 13.5% of all cases with an increase of more than 200, while the NCR fell by 200. W Visayas also fell by about 200. Cagayan and N Mindanao both had more than 200 over the day before. E Visayas and Zamboanga both increased by about 160. Davao reported more than 300 less than its exceptionally high total the day before. NCR cities: QC 169 Pasig 86 Caloocan 80 Manila 69 Makati 60 Las Pinas 68 Marikina 53 Paranaque 37 Six cities down significantly, 3 were up. Marikina by 33. Caloocan was down by 57. More on the NCR below. NCR plus bubble provinces: Laguna 289, up 18 Cavite 241, up 96 Rizal 147, up 65 Bulacan 107, down 187 Other provinces Batangas 139, down 10 Bataan 21, down 161 La Union 129 Pampanga 94, down 33 Pangasinan, up 27 Quezon 85, up 62 Selected Cities: Bacolod 59 Baguio 48 CDO 124, up 74 Cebu 62 Cotabato 50 Davao 238, down 244 GenSan 49 IloIlo 89 Tacloban 84 Zamboanga 99 Bohol 190, up 144 Angeles 27 Tarlac 70 Zambales 31 Th DOH do not publish positivity data by region. Possibly because for some labs some of their test samples come from outside their region. Here I am assuming the bulk of them are from the NCR for these NCR labs, so to get an idea of where positivity is heading in the NCR. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8502e5ff99.jpg Chinese general https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1aec4d0c6e.jpg De los Santos https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f0222b21cd.jpg Las Pinas https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39f5f7b065.jpg Makati Med https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7feefa9c38.jpg Manila doctors https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f38bbcebf9.jpg Pasig https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7b6fee8eb7.jpg San Lazaro https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...58def3a99f.jpg Taguig https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca2d94624f.jpg Valenzuala https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a191817a18.jpg Tondo A mixed picture. Most heading well below 10% but others around 10%, eg Las Pinas, and above 10% though look like they are heading down , eg Valenzuala, Pasig, Makati. NCR not out of the woods yet. Face shields: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1 They really don't know what to do about the President's intervention. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Update for June 19:
Regional data: (300 and over) 4A 939 NCR 847 W Visayas 798 C Luzon 707 Davao 498 C Visayas 480 N Mindanao 388 E Visayas 358 Zanboanga Pen 345 Cagayan 329 NCR added 103 but 4A with 13.5% of national cases maintained the lead. C Luzon added 262 but had 4th place behind W Visayas. Davao added 78 to gain 5th place. E Visayas, MIMAROPA and SOCCSK all fell by 100 or over over the day before. Top 6 at 61.3%, up 7% In the NCR small changes up and down. Taguig added another 44. Manila 30 and Paranaque 18. Top 6: QC 215, Manila 91. Taguig 81, Caloocan 76, Pasig 69, Paranaque 55 Provinces: in the NCR bubble provinces Laguna put on 68 and Cavite fell by 25. Bulacan added 44 and Rizal fell by 62. Laguna 357, Cavite 216, Bulacan 151, Rizal 85. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ec88243475.jpg Laguna fall levelling.. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2dc97e0a4d.jpg Cavite fall more established.. NCR bubble at 23.8%, up 1% Elsewhere Bataan up by close to 200 to 203. Batangas up 49 to 188 La Union, only 18 after 129 the day before. Pampanga up 12 to 106 Pangasinan down 20 to 72. Selected cities: Bacolod 123 Baguio 53 CDO 131 Cebu 41 Cotabato 18 Davao 252, up 14 GSan 64, up IloIko 130, up 41 Tacloban 41, down Zamboanga 34, down Bohol down only 9 from the day before Angeles 58 Tarlac 24 Zambales 26 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Over 1k less new cases announced at 5,803 and only 2 labs late. But for some reason 543 positive results were not included and held over. Positivity back up to 13.2% from a brief dip the day before. Tests numbering 48.1k. Number in process not available.
Recoveries 7.7k Deaths 84 and strangely 115 RDs seem to have been announced. I say "seemed" as I am relying on a GMA report. I think the first time they have exceeded the daily announced number. Difficult to believe there were no new "regular" deaths. Active cases 57,679 Severe 1,038 up 27 and Critical 750, up 22 NCR ICU down 1% at 43%. Nationally 57% Location data: Again, not presently available. Will update later. Philippine Genome testing https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...N?ocid=BingHPC There has been a lack of announcements on variants lately and this tells us why. They have run out of test kits, only now receiving a new supply. Been doing work on 'flu but not covid. Let's hope the travel restrictions are working. |
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