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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13045392)
Two pandemic records yesterday. Cases at 19,441 and positivity at 27.5%. Three labs late to submit and 255 cases were held over. Tests conducted on 71.6K and 63.6k on the way. Note that daily tests now can exceed 70k.
Recoveries a high 19.2k. Deaths 167, 76 RDs Active 142,679 Severe 1,570, up 2 and Critical 856 up 1 Very small changes. NCR ICU 73%, down 2% and national 74%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 5,085 4A 4,446 CL 2,624 IL 1,086 CV 1,004 Dav 898 WV 875 600s 1 region 500 1 400 2 300 2 200 1 100 2 NCR new cases rose only a little. It had 26.2% of all cases. CL rose most by over 650. 4A had over 450 more. IL had over 500 more, a nearly 50% increase on the day before. NM had 170 more to 676. Five of the 17 regions had less cases. Top 6 regions: 77.9%, up slightly. Rappler seem to want to rival ABS-CBN and OCTA with covid data analysis. Ordering on 2 week daily attack rate up to August 27. Over 7% highlighted in red. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...99c95abf90.jpg NCR leading by a distance on 2 week ADAR but it must have by far the best testing of all the regions. Case growth rates in a number of other regions exceeded the NCR's. Notably Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Cagayan, Caraga, Zamboanga and BARMM. NCR plus MECQ extended another week. Rappler also produced an updated quarantine list: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ad90692778.jpg News just coming out of the UK, the delta variant is causing 2x hospitalization compared to the alpha variant in the unvaccinated which is bad news for countries with low levels of vaccination. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13045418)
That quarantine list is not quite correct according to Roque's pronouncement yesterday. NCR, Laguna and Bataan are in MECQ plus restrictions which seemed to be a category all on its own.
News just coming out of the UK, the delta variant is causing 2x hospitalization compared to the alpha variant in the unvaccinated which is bad news for countries with low levels of vaccination. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...36117260f5.jpg A Scottish study found the same. When Dr John talked about the increased risk for the unvaccinated abroad this was the first country that came out of his mouth. Bodies may not be lying in the streets here as in India but probably in hospital annexes and car parks. The NCR Mayors are drawing up lists of new areas for granular lockdowns. They have to be long given this is an admitted shift in policy away from hard lockdowns when cases are increasing fast. Hard for those living there and will also cause access problems for others in some areas. Where we used to live in Paranaque our nearest access to the main road went through a small Barangay. But I really wonder if many NCR cities are up to it, given all the other covid work they do? |
Re: NCR llockdown
With LGU's and Barangays each having their individual take on official pronouncements the so called granular lockdown is leading the population to one of the greatest dogs dinners.
The Philippines is the only country that mandates the use of face masks and face shields simultaneously. What good does that do? Looks like nothing. With the fiscal management issues with DOH I wonder who benefits the most from the sales of face shields? Only having the vast majority fully vaccinated as quickly as possible is the only solution. The overstretched resources cannot begin to contain the exponential rise in new cases. Lack of testing hides the reality. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday positivity edged up tp 27.9% from 66.2k tests. Seven labs late. Cases fell about 900 to 18,528. Tests coming along a lower 57.3k.
Recoveries17.9k Deaths 101 with 38 RDs. Active 143,221 Severe 1,575, up 5 and Critical 859, up 3 NCR ICU 66%, down 7% (!). National 71%, down 3% Regional data: NCR 4,864 4A 4,422 CL 2,204 CV 989 WV 936 Cag 818 IL 765 The regions split about equally on cases going up or down. The NCR had over 200 less with 26.3% of all cases. 4A had about the same and together with the NCR reported 50.1% of all cases. CL had over 400 less and these top 3 regions had 62% of cases. The top 6 regions: 76.8% of cases, down 1%. Health protocols: https://www.manilatimes.net/2021/08/...survey/1812743 Still quite high. Not a surprise that the use of the pesky faces shields fell by 5%. They say 80% approval of the government's handling of the pandemic but only 50% "somewhat". More detail on that useful. Survey taken back in July so not covering another NCR ECQ and the delta surge. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update:
In every region the increase in cases last week exceeded the increase the week before by between 2 and 97% higher (BARMM): NCR 11% The others: 4A 64% CAR 55 Caraga 52 Davao 51 Bicol 43 Zamb 30 Cag 25 SOCCSK 24 MIM 23 WV 15 CL 11 IL 9 NM 4 CV 3 EV 2 Region 4A with a population similar to the NCRs and only 1.5M there doubly vaccinated. For the NCR, provinces and other cities there is some exaggeration of the % increases over the previous 7 days as the data last week is for 8 not 7 days. I was unable to collect the DOH cumulative totals last Saturday in time. In the NCR all but 2 cities, Mandaluyong and Pasig had increases more this last week than over the one before. Top 6 omitting Pateros, 115% increase: S John 83% Taguig 54 Mla 53 Caloocan 47 Pasay 46 LP 33 QC just 10% up. Provinces: Rizal 182 Pang 66 Btgs 60 Quez 52 Bata 41 Cav 37 Lag 32 Bul 25 Pam 9 Rizal has a large part of its population close to the NCR, as does Cavite and Laguna, but an exceptional increase. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0c3bde80fc.jpg Rizal Other Cities: Bac 51 Bag 86 CDO -3 Cebu 1 Davao 70 GSan 149 Ilo2 209 Lapu2 -1 Aklan -35 Ilo2 71 Boh 165 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another record high at 22,366 but as the DOH included 4,462 cases from their backlog the daily total becomes a bit meaningless. Positivity also. It was 27.5%. Big fall to 46.8k for tests to come from the usual weekend effect on testing.
Recoveries 16.9k Deaths 222 with 105 RDs Active 148,594 Severe 1,635, up 60 and Critical 892, up 33 NCR ICU 72%, up 6% and nationally 74%, up 3% Regional data: NCR 5,588 4A 4,942 CL 2,885 WV 1,174 IL 1,153 Cag 1,132 Davao 1,097 NM 884 CV 872 SOCCSK 516 CAR 446 300s 4 regions 200s 1 100s 1 The NCR added over 700 more, 25% of all cases. 4A put on over 500 more. The two together made up 47% of all cases. CL added just less than 700 more. These 3 regions contributed 60% of all cases. Ilocos added nearly 400 more. Cagayan more than 300. NM reported over 300 more, WV over 200 more Davao more than doubled its cases. BARMM and EV each added over 100 more. Top 6 regions: 75.4%, down 1% https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...afe54b918a.jpg National cases https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cfb766aa82.jpg NCR cases See Calabrzon chart shown yesterday.. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2d6c83301f.jpg Central Luzon cases. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fe216f7def.jpg National deaths. International tables: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...49f37b3a2f.jpg Cases and deaths. Note Malaysia at 23rd https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2ece0c9a17.jpg By new cases yesterday. Note 5 E and SE Asian countries in the top 11 places. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A drop in positivity with less testing plus 8 labs late in submitting gave a much lower 13,827 new cases, which was itself increased by a 1,333 backlog. Positivity 25.4% from 49.2k tests, 46.6k in process.
Recoveries 16.8k Deaths 118 with 37 RDs Active 145,562 Severe 1,601, down 34 and Critical 873, down 19 NCR ICU 73%, up 1% and national 73%, down 1% I think the first time lately they have been equal. Regional data: NCR 3,517 4A 3,163 CL 1,545 CV 813 Cag 759 IL 637 WV 587 NM 549 Dav 479 300s 1 region 200s 3 100 4 NCR with about 2k less with 25.4% of all cases, 4A 1.8k less and CL 1.3k less. All other regions had fewer cases. Top 6 regions 74.8%, down a little. The Philippines has a health minister who rarely speaks to the public about the covid situation, which allows others like the President to make statements like this: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/31/...than-neighbors Fact checking on a deaths per million population basis Philippines about halfway in the Asian table at 301. Worse than Saudi Arabia at 241. Also worse than Thailand, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam and Cambodia. It has the advantage of one of the youngest populations in the world too. Dr WHO said this: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/31/...ace-shield-use He says that there has been some delay in Delta variant spread here. Really? With the poor genomic testing here they have no good idea of the amount of spread. A shield protects the eyes, yes. Reading around it mainly stops the virus causing conjunctivitis ("red eye"), Some claim the virus can enter the body through mucous membranes but I can find no evidence that it has happened.. If you have a badly fitted facemask, yes it will give you some protection. But I think you may well have a badly fitted face mask as fitting the shield can interfere with the proper fitting of the mask over the nose. If you happened to touch a heavily infected surface yes, a face mask would stop you touching your face, while you have it on anyway. But I wonder if the shield could trap virus too? In my opinion they have minimal advantages over masks alone for protection and many other disadvantages. Which is why the good doctor could not name any other country where they are mandated so much like here. Also he makes a curious statement " It is not an airborne transmission". Is that a misquote? Like me you may have seen videos of researchers showing the AC inside a restaurant moving the virus around. Surely the air can move the water droplets, particles and aerosol which carry the virus around? Outside the air will usually disperse the virus, but indoors send it around to infect others. The straight talking Dr Leachon sees something of a health disaster coming here: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...southeast-asia |
Re: NCR llockdown
At least there is a smidgin of good news reported in the Manila Bulletin yesterday. Marikina City has fully vaccinated 350,000 residents thus achieving a level of community protection (so called herd immunity, whatever that is) and is now vaccinating people from Rizal Province. Also Mandaluyong and San Juan have achieved community protection levels. Of course all this good news maybe kicked into base when the current restrictions are relaxed.
Raffin's reference to the Head of States recent remarks reminds me of a former US Presidents utterances. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13046544)
At least there is a smidgin of good news reported in the Manila Bulletin yesterday. Marikina City has fully vaccinated 350,000 residents thus achieving a level of community protection (so called herd immunity, whatever that is) and is now vaccinating people from Rizal Province. Also Mandaluyong and San Juan have achieved community protection levels. Of course all this good news maybe kicked into base when the current restrictions are relaxed.
Raffin's reference to the Head of States recent remarks reminds me of a former US Presidents utterances. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2133e95e9c.jpg Not so relevant here as we obviously can't properly treat the sick. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I have just seen the video. So this will give more food for thought at DOH coupled with the face shield developments.
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Re: NCR llockdown
My impression here is that the doctors, experts working for the government and certainly political leaders are extremely ignorant of new ideas on covid from abroad. So I can't see them even thinking about it. But the way vaccination is going here it's almost as if they are trying that approach out accidentally!
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Re: NCR llockdown
A teenage boy? Stuck at home, bored stiff? Get your tuli op done free says the mobile lady announcer in the nearby Brgy.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Almost 600 more cases announced yesterday than the day before...totaling 14,216. Five labs late to submit and a 627 backlog included. Positivity 26.4% from 51.5k tests. Coming along 59.3k.
Recoveries 18.8k Deaths 86 with 37 RDs, Severe 1,691, up 90 and Critical 846, down 29 Total over 2,500 NCR ICU 71%, down 2%. National ICU 73%, unchanged. Regional data: NCR 4,083 4A 3,451 CL 1,623 Dav 612 WV 605 NM 595 Cag 575 400s 2 regions 200s 2 100s 4 NCR standing out with over 500 more cases. Up to 28.7% of cases. 4A was up by nearly 300. CL was up slightly. These top 3 regions at 64.4% of all cases. Elsewhere 9 regions had less cases, 5 more. Both NM and Davao reported over 100 more. Top 6 regions 77.1% , up 2% Manpower stretched: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...E?ocid=BingHPC Ahmm Mr Dizon actually 442k per day. Over ambitious target. As I predicted. Also, on the same issue: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/01/...or-vaccination "Granular" lockdowns: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/01/...ill-up-to-iatf Looks like the Mayors sense that the IATF might not find this new policy very effective against the Delta surge and will also think the arrangements for help to affected residents might not work and risk providing some bad media coverage. But they may give it a reluctant go ahead as they know the President has all but promised no more hard lockdowns for Manila. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday over 2,400 more cases, 5 labs late to submit and a 219 backlog included. Higher positivity up to 26.9% out of 61k tests. Coming along 64k.
Recoveries 11k Deaths 148 with 66 RDs. Active 146,510 Severe 1,612, down 79 and Critical 879, up 33 NCR ICU 73%, up 2% National 74%, up 1% NCR 5,031 4A 3,389 CL 1,929 NM 851 Cag 776 Dav 719 WV 705 IL 668 CV 650 300s 2 regions 200s 3 100s 3 Top 6: 76.4%, down NCR adding about one thousand more cases over the day before. A higher 30.3% of all cases. CL added over 300 more. NM about 250 more. Cagayan about 200 more. Ilocos added over 180 more WV,CV, Davao, the CAR and Caraga all added about 100 more. Notably 4A reported about 60 cases less. Zamboanga and SOCCSK both added less cases. Herd immunity https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in The Health secretary trying to give hope to a rapidly tiring public that things will be a lot better in 6 months time. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I don't think Duque even listens to the outside world as her keeps banging on about completely outdated information. We are not going to reach herd immunity with 70% of the population vaccinated and this crazy population protection at 50%. Who's he trying to fool.
According to Dr John, I'll leave Raffin to link his latest video if he wishes, scientists are now believing there will be no herd immunity from the delta variant and that we will all eventually get it, vaccinated or not. |
Re: NCR llockdown
An increase in cases of well over 3k yesterday.. Six labs late, backlog included 1,744. Positivity 27.4% from 67.8k tests, 68.7k in preparation.
Recoveries 7.7k Deaths 193, 84 RDs. Active 158,994 Severe 1,590, down 45 and Critical 795, down 97 NCR ICU 70%, down 3% National 72%, down 2% Regional data: NCR 5,279 4A 4,628 CL 2,708 Dav 1,089 WV 979 NM 923 IL 873 Cag 838 500s 1 400s 3 300 2 200 1 100 1 NCR adding just over 200 more at 26% of cases. Both 4A and CL adding more, 1,200 plus and nearly 800. The 3 regions with 62.1% of all cases. Elsewhere Davao added 300 plus. Ilocos, WV and EV each put on more than 200 cases. Only 4 regions with less cases. Top 6 regions 76.8% of all cases. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Over 400 more cases announced yesterday at 20,741. Five labs late to submit, only a small backlog included. Record positivity from the highest test number of 74k at 28%. On the way 67.9k tests, about 6k less.
Recoveries high at 22k. Deaths 189 with 81 RDs Active 157,646 Severe 1,892, up 302 and Critical 946, up 151 Total: 2,838 Increase 453. The DOH don't give these numbers directly, you have to work them out. Only by applying percentage calculations, but this seems to be beyond people in the media as they don't highlight these figures. Like yesterday's large increases,. Looks suspiciously like some sort of audit has taken place as usually the changes are two digits or one digit. The clearest indication of the seriousness of the latest Delta wave. Worth repeating: most people ill with covid don't get into these primary hospitals. NCR ICU 73%, up 3% National: 74%, up 2% Regional data: NCR 6,042 4A 4,691 CL 2,347 WV 1,198 CV 986 Cag 903 Dav 792 NM 681 IL 644 400s 2 regions 300s 3 200s 1 100s 1 NCR with nearly 800 more cases and a higher 29.1% of all cases. 4A with stable numbers and CL's were down by over 300. These 3 regions together with 63% of all cases, up. The top 6 regions with 78% of all cases, up. Elsewhere CV and WV each reported about 400 more cases. Bicol added about 150 to 461. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...se-octa/story/ The latest OCTA report. I will post my weekly update later. Strange budget decision: https://www.rappler.com/nation/ritm-...udget-cut-2022 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update:
For regions percentage change of last week's cases new cases on previous week's: ZP +41 Caraga 29 Davao 28 Cag 26 EV 25 WV 24 Bicol 23 MIM 21 CAR 20 NCR 18 BARMM 14 Ilocos 11 SOCCSK 6 CL 4 NM -3 4a 18 CV 28 In 14 out of the 17 regions rate of growth is increasing. NCR from 11% increase last week to 18%. Three worst are in Mindanao. Two of the 3 Visayan regions with high rates. Encouraging fall in rate of increase in CV and 4A. CL small increase only. For the rest of the comparisons I have to compare 6 days to 8 due to missing previous data. So looks better than it is. NCR cities: % increases Mand 25 Pnq 4 Val 2 Mkna 2 Nav 0 % fall in new case increase: Pat 45 SJ 43 Cal 25 LP 22 Mla 21 Pasay 20 Tag 12 Mak 12 Psg 10 Munt 8 Val 2 QC 2 Provinces: Bata -30 Btngs +2 Bul -26 Cav -20 Lag -20 Pam -27 Pang -7 Qu -32 Riz -20 Exaggerated but around Manila signs of improvement. Cities and areas: Bac -17 Bag -8 CDO -36 Cebu -67 Davao +6 GenSan -22 IloIlo -28 LapuLapu -46 Aklan +201 IloIlo -19 Boh -37 Again exaggerated but signs of improvement in cities, except in Davao and Baguio. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Sadly,I cannot see how this can't end in the number of casualties (per 100,000 people) being similar to those in Indonesia,for example..I must admit i have not read this thread in its entirity,but is there any chance at all that the severity of the problem in the Philippines is being underplayed by the Govt??
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by jaygee68
(Post 13048225)
Sadly,I cannot see how this can't end in the number of casualties (per 100,000 people) being similar to those in Indonesia,for example..I must admit i have not read this thread in its entirity,but is there any chance at all that the severity of the problem in the Philippines is being underplayed by the Govt??
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Re: NCR llockdown
Third day in a row with 20k or more new cases...20,019. Again 5 labs too late to submit. Backlog included lower at 186. Positivity slightly lower at 27.5% from 73.5k tests. Less tests in preparation at 67.8k.
Recoveries 20.1k Deaths 173, 58 RDs. Active 157,438 Another large daily increase in Severe and Critical patients: Severe 2,204, up 312 and Critical 1,102, up 156 Now totaling over 3,300. Not credible that there would be these sudden large increases in a health system. So has the DOH been sitting on the data or has there been some backlog from certain regions unreported? Whatever the reason it seems we should expect daily deaths to increase over the next weeks. NCR ICU 75%, up 2% Nationally 75%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 5,102 4A 4,430 CL 2,197 IL 1,413 CV 1,061 Cag 869 NM 841 Dav 811 600s 1 500s 2 400s 1 300s 1 200s 2 100s 1 NCR down more than 900. 25.5% of all cases. 4a and CL both down moderately. The 3regions with 58.6% of all cases, down 4%. Biggest movement was from Ilocos with an increase of nearly 800 cases.. NM had over 150 more. Increases of 100 or more from Caraga, the CAR and SOCCSK. Top 6 regions: 75.3%, down 3%. The way forward? No good options so they don't know what to do as the vaccinations are so slow to roll out. Granular lockdowns will be hailed as a new approach but will surely be seen by everyone to be difficult to organize and not to be enough to contain the surge. So it looks like the IATF and the President will prescribe more of the same with perhaps a lighter version of MECQ as the long Xmas season gets going, possibly in some areas not others. Announcement should be later today. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/04/...lan-pa-ng-iatf |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by jaygee68
(Post 13048225)
Sadly,I cannot see how this can't end in the number of casualties (per 100,000 people) being similar to those in Indonesia,for example..I must admit i have not read this thread in its entirity,but is there any chance at all that the severity of the problem in the Philippines is being underplayed by the Govt??
I suppose many governments, especially where it's not going well will underplay the situation. That's certainly happening here. We've had one of the world's longest and strictest lockdowns and not much to show from it. The selective and questionable statistics the public gets and the non critical media environment. Just look at the latest primary hospital data I reported on today and yesterday. Yes, lack of testing too. Although better here than Indonesia's per million. If improvements in Indonesia continue and it gets worse here watch for the government spox and President to look for other comparisons locally eg Malaysia, Thailand, even Vietnam, where things are not also going well to counter criticism here. Then outside SE Asia to Europe and N America to counter criticism. The US and the UK. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...51fcf7ee9f.jpg Indonesia https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f00da7eff9.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Cheers for that.I guess that the lower average age of people in teh Filis is a factor that should be taken into consideration,as you say.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by jaygee68
(Post 13048427)
Cheers for that.I guess that the lower average age of people in teh Filis is a factor that should be taken into consideration,as you say.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13048461)
So is the lower average age a consequence of the shorter life expectancy. If so is this really a bonus.
But Phils average age about 18 yrs, Indonesia's about 28 yrs. Caused by the age distribution: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bf7c9402db.jpg Phils age distribition. From indexmundi.com Over half under 25 yrs. For Indonesia just over 40% under 25 yrs. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e7a0a0bfe3.jpg Effects on covid: the young not circulating so much to catch it and the docs say as you age your immune system doesn't work so well, time to develop the comorbidities. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13048699)
Guessing that these two developing countries would have similar life expectancies and they do if you search, about 71 yrs.
But Phils average age about 18 yrs, Indonesia's about 28 yrs. Caused by the age distribution: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bf7c9402db.jpg Phils age distribition. From indexmundi.com Over half under 25 yrs. For Indonesia just over 40% under 25 yrs. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e7a0a0bfe3.jpg Effects on covid: the young not circulating so much to catch it and the docs say as you age your immune system doesn't work so well, time to develop the comorbidities. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday more than a 2k increase to make a record 22,415 new cases. Eight labs too late to submit. Included a backlog of 1,315. Highest yet positivity of 28.8% from 73.3k tests. This will fall to around 48k tomorrow, due to the weekend effect.
Recoveries again at 20.1k Deaths 103, 7RDs. Active 159,633 highest since April 13 Severe 2,335, up 31 and Critical 958, down 144 Large movement for Critical. NCR ICU 73%, down 2%. National 76%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 6,335 4A 4,970 CL 2,854 Cag 1,121 Dav 1,053 WV 826 NM 815 CV 660 Caraga 608 IL 562 3 400s 3 300s 1 100s NCR adding over 1,2k at 28.3% of all cases. 4A had over 500 more, CL about 650 more. These three regions with 63.2% of cases, up nearly 5%. Cagayan and Davao both added about 250 more. EV over 200 more. Small MIMAROPA added over 200 cases to total 371. Top 6 regions: 76.6% of all cases, up 1%. Quarantine changes until end of the month: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/06/...q-on-sept-8-30 NCR to GCQ, albeit with "heightened restrictions'. Anyway some businesses will reopen. Yet cases there still increasing: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ea5a301655.jpg NCR Should really stay in MECQ but no more ayuda. The government adding in "pilot granular lockdowns". Actually several cities already do them so let's see how many new ones are started. All 4A provinces except Batangas and Quezon stay in MECQ. The recent case growth of 4A is similar to the NCR's...so many barber shops closed for another 3 weeks, indoor dining banned. No granular lockdown plans there to justify relaxing restrictions! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13048702)
Looking at those figures far more of the population of Indonesia survive into old age than the Philippines. 11% over 55 in the Philippines, 18% in Indonesia.
Whatever past factors caused the greater older proportion in Indonesia, maybe Philippines emigration had something to do with it? the demographers seem to have life expectancy at birth now similar at around 71 yrs for both countries, from my quick search on Bing. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday over 4k fewer cases, 8 labs late to submit. Also a a 1,944 backlog of positives included. Positivity level maintained at 28.1% from 57.2k tests .A lower number, 52.7k tests in process.
Recoveries 19k Deaths 161 with 105 RDs. Active 158,637 Severe 2,221, down 14 and Critical 1,111, up 53 NCR ICU 75%, up 2% National 76%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 4,794 4A 4,030 CL 1,895 IL 1,258 WV 836 Dav 831 CV 751 Cag 718 CAR 643 500s 1 300s 1 200s 3 100s 3 NCR cases fell by about 1.5k, 26.6% of all cases. 4A had about 900 less, CL 1k less. Most regions had less cases. The major exception was Ilocos with nearly 700 more. CV reported about 100 more and the CAR about 150 more. Top 3 regions 59.5%, down Top 6: 71.6%, down Quarantine levels; It's Ok to backtrack if circumstances change for the worse but not good to do so when nothing has changed. The "granular lockdown" policy aimed at relaxing restrictions generally down to GCQ+ was never properly formulated. The president's spokesman said its 4 pages of guidance wasn't yet ready, more discussions were needed. Seems it was forced through to justify a quarantine downgrade and not be under pressure to pay more ayuda. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/07/...-until-sept-15 Confidence in the ever forgiving public here that the government knows what it is doing will be dented. Many workers have another week with no job. No government help for that. Actually this item tells you that this new policy is actually a mix of granular lockdowns plus new business sector restrictions by area. The granular idea was never going to do much, difficult to get the statistics in time, expensive and complicated to operate. But the sectoral restrictions by NCR city also require timely data. They are also likely to be complicated if they are to vary by area. Are people going to be stopped going to another city? We await details on these business opening rules in a week's time.. https://www.rappler.com/nation/video...9-rising-cases Where we are in Cavite, also under MECQ, they've sensibly allowed one nearby salon which is very open to the outside, to open. Also some dine-in, at the cheaper end, where the eating places are open to the outside. Also another backtrack on Ilocos Norte. Now MECQ not GCQ+: https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...-Sept.-7-.html CNN Phil report the reason as "the appeal of the government". But they have the active case number wrong, it's only 1,306 with the DOH. Well, cases in the Ilocos region have been rising, lately. It is often in the top 6 regions for daily cases. But looking at the two neighbouring provinces it seems a curious decision: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a03e6a1158.jpg Ilocos Norte, signs of case decline https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a1736825ff.jpg Ilocos Sur, cases increasing Also Ilocos Sur has almost as many active cases, 1,177, and a higher percentage of ICU beds occupied than Ilocos Norte. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The ability not overcomplicate procedures is a national pastime. I am not at ball surprised with the delay (abandoned) granular lockdown plan.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Computer problems from Jolina, so late.
Yesterday "technical issues" meant initially that 3,339 positive results held back. Maybe water got into their server? Five labs were late to submit and they announced 12,751 positives from 57.3k tests. A 28.1% positivity. Coming along 65.2k tests. Then at 4pm the DOH updated yesterday's results to 17,833 Which was convenient for me as I was not able to post by then! The late addition adding more backlog than the 3,339 from the day before. Positivity therefore is not as announced yesterday and the test number for the revised total not given for a revised computation to be done. Recoveries 20,2k Deaths 174, 80 RDs Active 156,226 Severe 2,267, up 46 and Critical 1,058, down 53 NCR ICU 74%, down 1% National 76%, unchanged. Regional data: NCR 4,621 4A 4,005 CL 1,602 Dav 1,088 NM 1,012 SOCCSK 973 WV 700 Cag 670 CV 595 CAR 589 IL 570 1 400s 1 300s ! 200s 2 100s All but 6 regions with less cases. All but one of those in Mindanao: Notably: SOCCSK up 588 NM up 428 Davao up 257 Zamboanga up 206 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday, late pm, the DOH announced 22,820 new cases...a record. Five labs were late to submit and the total included a 856 backlog. Positivity up to 29.4% from 74.7k tests. Coming along 71.4k tests.
Recoveries 12.3k Deaths low at 61, 29 RDs Active up at 166,672 Severe 2,333, up 66 and Critical 1,167, up 109 That's a total of 3,500 patients in those two conditions. NCR ICU 73%, down !%. National 75%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 6,615 4A 4,894 CL 2,659 IL 1,081 CV 1,046 Cag 1,011 Dav 988 WV 864 NM 811 600s, 500s, 400s and 300s I region each 200s and 100s 2 regions each NCR up about 2k with 29% of all cases. 4A and CL each up around 1k. The 3 regions with 62% of all cases. Ilocos and CV each up by around 500. Cagayan by nearly 400. EV up by nearly 250. Caraga by nearly 200. WV by 160 and Bicol by 100. Four Mindanao regions ..Zamboanga, NM, Davao and SOCCSK, that increased greatly the day before all had less cases yesterday. Top 6 regions with 75.8% of cases. Vaccination: Vaccine targets questioned: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/09/...ng-pagbabakuna Supply, staffing issues and the effects of bad weather in a Rainy season which still has some time to run never deter them here from setting unrealistic vaccination targets. |
Re: NCR llockdown
More data delays from the DOH yesterday as over 4k positives were not announced. Also four labs were late to submit. They did announce 17,964 cases. Makes it difficult to see any trends.
They tested 76.6k individuals and positivity was:28.9%. Coming along a lower 64.3k tests, probably weather affected. Recoveries 9.1k Deaths 168, 79 RDs. Active 175,470 Severe 2,201, down 132 and Critical 1,053, down 114 NCR ICU 73%, national 75% unchanged Regional data: NCR 4,639 4A 3,614 CL 2,080 Dav 1,046 IL 903 CAR 872 WV 863 Cag 858 CV 807 NM 735 500s 1 400s 1 200s 1 100s 3 NCR down 2.3k cases at 24.3% of all cases. 4A down 1.2k and CL down 600. Top 3 regions with only 56% of cases. Three regions added cases: The CAR with over 200 more. BARMM 86 and Davao 58 more. The top 6 regions at 70.6% of all cases. Sensible policy shift to get rid of the modified quarantine levels: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-or-gcq/story/ In line with that the Cebu governor simplifies quarantines there: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...der-gcq/story/ The granular lockdowns would need many small scale ayudas to be implemented. I can see some disputes between neighbours. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...x?ocid=BingHPC |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13048712)
Yes, but that's not a bonus for covid hospitilization and death. Which the comparison was about.
Whatever past factors caused the greater older proportion in Indonesia, maybe Philippines emigration had something to do with it? the demographers seem to have life expectancy at birth now similar at around 71 yrs for both countries, from my quick search on Bing. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by RedApe
(Post 13050283)
My thought on this was birth control. Indonesia doesn't restrict family planning (in fact it's encouraged) and the average number of children/women has dropped. Catholic Philippines compels large families.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday the DOH announced a record daily total of 26,603, 2 labs late .Including a large backlog of 5,713, that's more than were held back the day before. Some older results so maybe that's why positivity is a bit lower at 27.6% from 75.7k tests, A lower 71.4k on the way.
Recoveries 16k Deaths 79 with 32 RDs Active 185,706 record. Severe 2,414, up 213 and Critical 1,114, up 61 NCR ICU 77%, up 4% National 76%, up 1% https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...checked/story/ Doctors in the hospitals don't believe the capacity stats. Regional data: NCR 9,061 4A 5,884 CL 3,147 WV 1,755 Bicol 837 Dav 792 IL 758 Cag 652 SOCCSK 636 500s 2 400s,300s 1 200s 2 100s 2 NCR doubles numbers to have 34% of all cases. 4A up by about 2.2k, CL up by more than 1k. Top 3 regions 68% of all cases. WV doubled its cases and Bicol added over 600. Ilocos and Zamboanga each added about 150 cases. SOCCSK added over 200. MIMAROPA over 100. The Philippines has a "red list" of countries who can't fly people to/from here and a recent announcement is that 9 countries are on it for a week at least due to their covid situation. Mostly smaller states in E Europe, but included Switzerland and Israel. Switzerland? https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...90fb840a9c.jpg Not so bad from the chart! The IATF say incidence must not be over 500 new cases per 100k. That should mean recent daily cases, Latest figure.2,894. Population 8.7m so that's about 34 per 100k. Israel's chart: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...035746ee68.jpg Daily cases higher than Switzerland's, population somewhat higher but incidence well below 500/100k. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...q?ocid=BingHPC Hard luck for you doubly vaccinated seniors! More on the new quarantine system for the NCR: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...a?ocid=BingHPC Two overall quarantine levels, granular lockdowns and stronger granular lockdowns. Then 4 alert levels applied differently to the various businesses. On top of that we can expect the Mayors to apply other restrictions! Case fatality rate: Dr John reported recently on a US study on 2020 covid, taking into account antigen test data as PCR tests were limited then. They came out with a case fatality rate of 0.3% at the end of 2020. The current US figure now at about 1.6% on official test data. About the same here. Useful delta variant symptom data (for the already vaccinated) from the UK ZOE tracker app. Millions of daily users there. Never anything given out here about changes in symptoms from the delta variant. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3e8f98c822.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
I'm sure they do not look outside the Philippines in case something challenges their ill conceived ideas.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update:
Regions last week's case increases compared with the week before's. All 17 regions showing a greater increase last week than in the week before. Caraga 65% CAR 49 Bicol 47 Zam 40 SOCCSK 28 IL 27 Dav 25 NCR 17 4A 11 Then 8 regions between 4 and 9% new case increase. Top 5 areas where hospital facilities are poor. For the cities, provinces and areas I am comparing 7 days with 6 due to missing data 2 weeks ago, so changes will be somewhat exaggerated. NCR cities: San Juan and Pateros showing 79% and 47% increases respectively, but both can be disregarded due to their small populations. For the rest: Pasig +32% Marikina +28% Caloocan +18% QC +16% Taguig +9% Manila +7% Valenzuala +2% Malabon -39% Navotas -21% Muntinlupa -12% Mandaluyong -11% Low fall %: Pasay, Paranaque, Makati, Las Pinas Provinces: All around Manila except Laguna had greater case increase. Laguna's increase fell by 17%. Quezon 75% Rizal 50 Batangas 46 Pang 45 Bata 38 Bul 26 Pam 22 Cav 17 Cities: Bac +60% Bag 0 CDO -4 Cebu +55 Dav +36 GenSan +22 IloIlo +16 LapuLapu +26 Aklan -83 IloIlo +21 Bohol +32 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13050381)
Yes but all these babies get old one day, just in the Philippines not so many survive into old age.
High and low birth rates each seem not to be good for any country and for any developing one a big problem. Especially one with poor health and education systems like the Philippines. Even if early death claims many of the young now there is a large number who will make it to senior age and looking after them, many of them with weight problems, won't be done so much by families as in the past. Given the past record can we expect future governments here to help much ? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a fall in cases to 21,411, including a 211 backlog and 5 labs late to report. Positivity 27.0% from 78.3k tests. A lower 66.4k in preparation.
Recoveries 25.1k Deaths 168, 58 RDs Active 181,951 Severe 2,365, down 49 and Critical 1,092, down 22 NCR ICU 78%, up 1% National ICU 77%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 5,619 4A 4,458 CL 2,250 IL 1,087 CV 982 WV 977 Dav 948 NM 922 Cag 806 2 600s 2 500s 1 300s 1 200s 2 100s NCR with 3.4k less cases at 26.2% of all cases. 4A and CL fell by a lot less...by about 1.4k and 900. Top 3 regions with 57.6% of cases, down. Ilocos added over 300 more, CV over 400 more. Davao about 150 and NM 450 more. Cagayan about 150 more. Top 6 regions had 71.8% of all cases, down Vaccination progress; ABS-CBN reports that by Sep 9 16.1M people had been fully vaccinated. |
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