Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 700 less cases yesterday at 5,204 but 8 labs were late to submit. Positivity was down to 10.8% from 45.4k tests. Backlog only 297. Tests on the way much lower at 28.5k.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 100 with 62 RDs.

75 recoveries went to active.

Active cases 49,128

Severe 1,228, up 35 and Critical 737, down 9

NCR ICU 42%, up 2% Nationally 57%, up 1%

Regional data:

4A 841
NCR 584
W Visayas 579
Ilocos 532
C Luzon 441
Davao 390
C Visayas 389
SOCCSK 305

1 200s
5 100s

Ten regions significantly down.
Ilocos was noteworthy with a rise of 180 casesover the day before.
N Mindanao had 86 more to 223.
SOCCSKSARGEN rose by 35 to 305.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8b557639dd.jpg
Ilocos

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b39fb36e62.jpg
Zamboanga Peninsula....big improvement.

In the NCR 7 cities were down, by just a few mostly. Four were up, including Valenzuala, which added 20 to have 31.

QC 110, Manila 73, Pasig 56, Taguig 46, Caloocan 37, Paranaque 33

Provincially:

Most provinces reported less cases, except Laguna with 64 more and Quezon with 41 more.

Bataan 53
Batangas 120
Bulacan 99
Cavite 247
La Union 94
Laguna 283
Pampanga 73
Pangasinan 102
Quezon 78
Rizal 80

Selected cities:

Bacolod 31
Baguio 49
CDO 88, up 26
Cebu 99
Davao 225
Gen San 58
IloIlo 29

Bohol 55

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-than-2/story/

A strange announcement from the DOH. Their own statistics show only 0 to 4 years not 0 to 2 years, but they show those babies and very young kids have caught 27.4k infections, that's less than 2% of all covid infections. Looking at the population In 2019 there were1.6M live births, in 2020 1.4M.
Are they trying to scare people from taking young children out?
I would think nearly all caught their covid at home.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Reported cases about 1,600 less yesterday, 8 labs late but the fall in cases is mostly due to the usual low Sunday testing. Backlog included up a little to 490. The 3,604 cases was the lowest total since May 23. Positivity was down a little to 10.6% from 29.4k tests. About the same number in preparation.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 77 with 47 RDs.

72 recoveries went to Active.

Active 46,934

Severe 1,220, down 8 and Critical 751, up 14

NCR ICU at 43%, up 1%. Nationally 56%, down 1%

Regional data:

C Visayas 506
4A 411
NCR 410
Davao 337
W Visayas 335
Ilocos 319
C Luzon 307

1 region in the 200s
3 100s

C Visayas reported 117 more cases over the day before to head a table where most regions had substantially less cases. It had 14% of all cases. Three regions had very small increases.

Top 6: 64.3%, down only 0.4%

In the NCR 11 cities had less cases. Only Manila had more.

Top 3: Manila 83, QC 68, Paranaque 34

All provinces around the NCR had less cases:

Bataan 37
Batangas 46
Bulacan 87
Cavite 147
La Union 59
Laguna 131
Pampanga 67
Pangasinan 70
Quezon 39
Rizal 39

Selected cities:

Bacolod 60, up 29
Baguio 47
CDO 33, down
Cebu 112, up 19
Davao 186, down 39
IloIlo 28
Gen San 60, up

Bohol 114, up 59


Concerning areas for the DOH:

In the NCR an increasing trend over the last 2 weeks seen in:

Manila, Makati, Las Pinas, Muntinlupa, Mandaluyong, Malabon, Navotas and San Juan.

So 8 cities out of the 16,with about a third of the population are now areas of concern!

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8549f698db.jpg

The above came in a tweet alongside a table, which was difficult to show here.

It says the DOH are very worried about recent infection increases in the Davao region, W Visayas and the CAR.
Then hospitals. HCUR is an overall hospital measure which includes non covid ICU bed occupancy, ICUR measures covid ICU bed occupancy.

Davao is bad all round in its hospitals. In the W Visayas covid ICU is at critical risk level

Hospitals in the CAR, Zamboanga Pen and Bicol are all at high covid ICU risk levels.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a slightly higher 3,806 cases, 5 labs late. Positivity 11% from 32k tests. A small backlog included. Tests coming along 46.9k.

Recoveries 6.3k

Deaths 140 with 105 RDs.

Case fatality rate at 1.77%

Active cases at 44,408, the lowest since March 11

Severe 1,243, up 23, Critical 755, up 4
Severe numbers rising lately.

NCR ICU 43%, unchanged. Nationally 57%, up 1%

Regional data:

W Visayas 628
NCR 535
4A 453
Davao 446
C Luzon 267
C Visayas 242
SOCCSK 206

5 regions in the 100s

W Visayas added nearly 300 more cases and has 16.5% of all cases.
The NCR added 125.
Davao put on more than 100 over the day before.

Top 6: 67.8% , up 3.5%

In the NCR 11 cities up, 1 down substantially.

QC 93, Makati 84, Manila 76, Paranaque 49, Taguig 44

Provinces around Manila:

Moderate changes 5 up, 5 down

Bataan 78, up
Batangas 80, up
Bulacan 78
Cavite 164, up
La Union 25
Laguna 150, up
Pampanga 33
Pangasinan 54
Quezon 9
Rizal 48, up

Selected cities:

Bacolod 79, up
Baguio 96, up
CDO 34
Cebu 32
Davao 239, up 53
Gen San 63, up
IloIlo 156, up 128

Bohol 105

Philippine vaccination roll out:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/14/...rate-at-375059

At 375k above what the UK is doing now in the later stages of its roll out, but well below the daily UK vaccination rate 3 - 4 months ago.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday about 16k more test results and a positivity rate lower at 10.2% to give 5,221 positives. Backlog 318. Tests on the way at 50.4k.
Recoveries at 4.1k.

Deaths 82 with 46 RDs.

52 recoveries returned to active.

Severe 1,274, up 31 and Critical 773, up 22
Over 2,000 patients now in these two conditions in primary hospitals.

NCR ICU at 42%, down 1% Nationally 56%, down 1%

Regional data:

W Visayas 689
NCR 636
4A 599
C Luzon 562
Davao 341
C Visayas 328
N Mindanao 327
Cagayan 321

1 region in the 200s
5 100s

W Visayas top again with 13.2% of all cases.
C Luzon added nearly 300 more.
E Visayas 250 more.
Cagayan nearly 200 more.
4A 150 more.
N Mindanao 139 more.
Ilocos 124 more.
Zamboanga nearly 90 more.

Top 6 regions at 60.4%, down 7%b on the day before.

The CR added 100 more cases.. Nine cities with substantially more, 4 had less. Moderate changes.

QC 124, Manila 83, Makati 61, Las Pinas 47

In the provinces around the NCR Bataan, Bulacan, Laguna and Pampanga all reported substantially more cases over the day before.

Bataan 118
Batangas 69
Bulacan 148
Cavite 158
La Union 55
Laguna 219
Pampanga 121
Pangasinan 70
Quezon 42
Rizal 95

Selected cities:

Bacolod 95,up
Baguio 45, down
CDO 35
Cebu 105, up 73
Davao 167
Gen San 60, down
IloIlo 93, down

Bohol 77, down

The President has confirmed all existing GCQ and MECQ areas until the end of July.
The only change, not highlighted, is that Cavite is now off "heightened restrictions". But Laguna stays.
Maybe our Mayor will now allow alcohol sales.

Contact tracing;

Basically in disarray. Budgetary reasons according to this:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...get-woes-dilg-
exec/story/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 450 more cases yesterday, 3 labs late .Very small backlog. Positivity 11% from 51.4k tests. Coming along 50,4k tests.

Recoveries 2.7k

Deaths 162, 116 RDs

28 recoveries became active

Active cases up at 48,480

Severe 1,261, down 13 and Critical 776, up 3

NCR ICU at 41%, down 1%. National 56%, unchanged.

Regional data:

4A 848
NCR 844
C Luzon 581
C Visayas 525
W Visayas 509
Davao 464
Cagayan 313

2 200s
7 100s

Region 4A added about 250 more to be top with 15% of all cases.
The NCR added more than 200 to come second.
C Visayas added 200 to come 4th.
Davao with more than 100 added took 6th place.

The top 6 regions had 66.4% of all cases, up 6%.

Ignoring the trend line and looking at the bars only cases in the inner and outer areas of the first epicentre are flattening.
Cavite plus Laguna only used as they are more connected to the NCR than the other 4A provinces.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7e746a01c2.jpg
NCR flattening..


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...23a86b68b1.jpg
Cavite plus Laguna flattened briefly and starting to rise,,

In the NCR 11 cities up, 1 down.
Paranaque's cases doubled. Taguig's increased by 39.
Pasig's increased by 30.

QC 145, Manila 101, Pasig 88, Makati 78, Taguig 70, Paranaque 64

In the provinces Laguna reported over 100 more yesterday. Cavite's rose by 84.
Otherwise no big changes.

Bataan 113
Batangas 127
Bulacan 132
Cavite 242
La Union 50
Laguna 323
Pampanga 115
Pangasinan 86
Quezon 39
Rizal 105

Selected cities:

Bacolod 67
Baguio 45
CDO 72, up 37
Cebu 114, up
Davao 223, up 56
Gen San 66
IloIlo 98, up

Bohol 85, up

Delta variant:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-transmissions

Local transmission confirmed. They are just now finding cases from June. N Mindanao and Central Luzon. Only a matter of time before it spreads much more widely in a largely unvaccinated population with little existing immunity.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday saw an additional 364 cases added, 3 labs late to produce a total of 6,040. Backlog included was 471. Positivity 10.7% from 52k cases. On the way 50.3k tests.

Recoveries 7.2k

Active cases down to 47,257

Severe 1,276, up 15 and Critical 756, down 10

Deaths 122 with 74 RDs.

NCR ICU 42%, up 1%. National 56%

Regional data:

W Visayas 900
4A 830
NCR 777
Davao 646
C Luzon 582
Ilocos 426
C Visayas 318

2 in 200s
5 in 100s

W Visayas added nearly 400 more cases at 14.9% of all cases.
Davao added 182, Ilocos 143. Cagayan 138 to report 195 cases.

Top 6: 68.9%, up 2.5%

In the NCR all cities no significant change or just small changes.

QC 149, Manila 110, Pasig 74, Makati 69, Las Pinas 53, Paranaque 53

Provinces around the NCR likewise:

Bataan 116
Batangas 107
Bulacan 159
Cavite 265
La Union 43
Laguna 266
Pampanga 88
Pangasinan 128
Quezon 53
Rizal 113

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 191, up 124
Baguio 39
CDO 75
Cebu 98
Davao 314, up 91
Gen San 55
IloIlo 120

IloIlo (rest of) 206
Aklan 141
Neg Occ 117

Bohol 23

Delta variant threat:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

A return to more restrictions in the NCR and around a real possibility.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A fall of about 600 cases yesterday. Four labs late. Results up to date from 52k tests. In preparation 46.6k tests..

Recoveries 5.4k

Deaths 117 with 82 RDs

Severe 1,274, down 2 and Critical 755, down 1

NR ICU 42%, unchanged. Nationally 55%, down 1%

Regional data:

4A 813
NCR 706
C Luzon 529
W Visayas 502
C Visayas 491
Davao 487
Ilocos 355

2 in the 200s
6 100s

4A top with 15% of all cases. The E Visayas the biggest gainer region adding over 170 cases to 229.
The CAR, Bicol and SOCCSKSARGEN all gained between 50 and 80 cases..

The top 6 regions with 65.2% of all cases, down 3.7%

Only 2 NCR cities with more cases. Caloocan added 30.
Eight had significantly less.

QC 128, Manila 95, Makati 67, Caloocan 59, Pasig 52, Taguig 50

Provincially changes were moderate. Except Bataan had 83 less and Bulacan had 46 more.

Bataan 33
Batangas 102
Bulacan 205
Cavite 254
La Union 49
Laguna 274
Pampanga 124
Pangasinan 89
Quezon 68
Rizal 84

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 22, down
Baguio 74, up 35
CDO 79
Cebu 88, down
Davao 214, down 100
Gen San 55
IloIlo 79
Lapu Lapu 38

Aklan 127, down
IloIlo 119, down
Neg Occ 72, down

Latest Vaccination figures from ABS-CBN:

By July 14 4.05M 2 vaccs 7% of revised 57M target in 4 months.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a modest increase of 241 cases. Positivity at 11.0% from 50.4k tests including a backlog of only 109 results. A much lower test number in preparation at 32.5k.

Recoveries 5.3k.

Deaths 72 with 39 RDs

Severe 1,284, up 10 and Critical 761, up 6

NCR ICU 43%, up 1%. Nationally 54%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 941
4A 808
W Visayas 771
C Visayas 653
C Luzon 427
Davao 326
Ilocos 324

200s 2 regions
100s 4 regions

NCR regained top position with 235 more and 16.7% of all cases.
W Visayas in 3rd place added 269 more.
C Visayas in 4th added 162 more.
N Mindanao added 90 to 277 cases.

Top 6 regions 69.5%, up 4%.

In the NCR 7 cities had substantially more cases. Only 2 had less.

Adding the most cases Manila, QC, Taguig and Valenzuala...all around 40 to 50 more.

QC 169, Manila 147, Taguig 94, Makati 73, Valenzuala 66, Las Pinas 55, Caloocan, Pasig 52

Provinces:

Bataan had 78 more added yesterday.
Rizal 29 more
La Union had 200 less.

Bataan 111
Batangas 114
Bulacan 157
Cavite 292
La Union 43
Laguna 231
Pampanga 76
Pangasinan 48
Quezon 49
Rizal 113



Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 154, up 132
Baguio 66
CDO 154, up 75
Cebu 197, up 109
Davao 194
Gen San 76
IloIlo 88
LapuLapu 80, up 42

Aklan 150
IloIlo 203, up 84
Neg Occ 96, up

Bohol 87

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...variant/story/

The President also warning of more restrictions. But how far are they willing to go if cases are going up everywhere, including the NCR. Which they could because vaccinations there are low. Close down business again? How will they keep people from starving?

"You must get the vaccine or you die" Really? Anyway, where are the vaccines for the general population?

By July 18 4.7M 2 doses given.
Deliveries 27.8M

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 150 less cases announced yesterday. But 10 labs late and testing always down at the weekend, which it was by about 16k. So not much of a reduction. Positivity 10.9% from 34.6k tests and a similar number in preparation. I don't expect test numbers to be high this week due to the rains. Which will also aid virus spread.

Recoveries 5.2k

30 recoveries went active.

Deaths 58. No info on RDs.

Severe 1,264, down 20 and Critical 749, down 12

NCR ICU 42%, down 1%. National 54%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 693
C Visayas 606
4A 496
C Luzon 394
Davao 382
Ilocos 382
W Visayas 381
SOCCSK 332

No 200s
5 100s

Only 2 regions with increases, Davao added 56 more, SOCCSKSARGEN added 87 more.
The NCR maintained top position with 15.3% of all cases.

Top 6 regions at 65.4% of all cases, down 4%.

All NCR cities had less cases except Paranaque with 10 more added and QC with 34 more than the day before.

QC 203, Manila 127, Taguig 63, Makati 54, Las Pinas 40, Pasig 36, Paranaque 35

Provincially around the NCR all had less cases, except Pangasinan which had 42 more:

Bataan 37
Batangas 60
Bulacan 104
Cavite 248
La Union 46
Laguna 79
Pampanga 91
Pangasinan 90
Quezon 12
Rizal 90

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 26
Baguio 53
CDO 37
Cebu 105
Davao 186
Gen San 82, up
IloIlo 38
LapuLapu 52

Aklan 129
IloIlo 87
N Occ 55

Bohol 230, up 143


https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...to-1-06/story/

NCR R number now estimated by OCTA to exceed 1.0.

Vaccination progress:

Paranaque is one of the more well organized cities. Claiming 35% of the "target population" vaccinated.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...mayor-olivarez

Taguig Mayor points out a major omission in the restrictions:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

But he's wrong to suggest it was always a rule under GCQ. At the most advisory. Maybe it was considered and thought to be inappropriate to the Philippines, but certainly more could have been done with advisories.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday there were about 2k more cases than on Tuesday but they included a large backlog of well over 2,000. I would guess test processing was affected by the Eid holiday. Four labs were late. Positivity at a higher 12.1%. Tests in preparation 47.9k. Expect testing will fall and delays will worsen as a result of the atrocious monsoon rains affecting C and N Luzon areas.

Recoveries 5.4k

Deaths 32 with 30 RDs

Severe 1,247, down 17. Critical 768, up 19.

NCR ICU 42%, unchanged. Nationally 55%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1027
4A 880
C Visayas 816
W Visayas 805
C Luzon 735
N Mindanao 389
Cagayan 373

3 in 200s
4 in 100s

NCR back to more than a thousand with 334 more than the day before. Had 15.7% of all cases.
C Luzon and 4A both added a similar number of cases.
Cagayan added over 200 more.

In the Visayas W Visayas added more than 400, C Visayas more than 200.

N Mindanao's cases tripled.
Zamboanga's doubled.

The top 6 regions had a higher 70.9% of all cases.

In the NCR 9 cities up, just 2 down moderately, QC and Taguig.

QC 158, Manila 164, Makati 84, Caloocan 56, Las Pinas 53, Paranaque 51

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e64836d952.jpg
NCR cases levelling..

Provincially:

Cavite cases were about the same but Bulacan's and Laguna's rose substantially.
Cases in Bataan, Batangas and Pampanga increased by 70, 90 and 93.

Bataan 107
Batangas 150
Bulacan 242
Cavite 251
La Union 31
Laguna 310
Pampanga 184
Pangasinan 78
Quezon 52
Rizal 92

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 65, up
Baguio 60, up
CDO 73, up 36
Cebu 287, up 182
Davao 190
Gen San 60
IloIlo 146, up 108
Lapu Lapu 89, up

Aklan 151, up
IloIlo 223, up 136
Neg Occ 95, up

Bohol 73

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f423253c93.jpg
Cebu City

There doesn't seem to be one major reason for the new wave highlighted in reports.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...40b95b284d.jpg
Davao City's last wave started in late April. Recent falls in new cases have ceased.

So looking at the NCR, Cebu and Davao over recent months we see that when control in major cities at last seems to be working the virus is soon able to resume increases. Relaxations in restrictions, public observance of protocols and maybe new variants when positivity data shows the WHO level of 5% is never achieved over 2 weeks. Testing has tended to fall off with the fall in cases so perhaps one lesson is to show caution and maintain testing levels:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4b027c1405.jpg
Good to see testing lately has not fallen so much with falls in positivity. But is it high enough in the first place?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday new cases were more than 700 less at 5,828. Five labs late in submitting. But up to date results with 12.0% positivity from 47.9k tested individuals. The DOH said their COVIDkaya system had had some "technical issues". Not clear what that affected in their results.

Recoveries low at 3.3k

Deaths 17 with 15 RDs
For two days in a row deaths have been nearly all RDs.

Active cases up at 50,562

Severe 1,264, up 17 and Critical 758, down 10

NCR ICU 44%, up 2%. Nationally 54%, down 1%

Regional data:

Not yet forthcoming. Will update later.

NCR R number estimated by OCTA at above 1.0, after 3 months below 1.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...to-1-06/story/

The OCTA suspect the NCR is in the early stages of a new surge, possibly due to the Delta variant. Manila and Makati leading but a few other cities are of concern.

The latest ABS-CBN figure for NCR 2 doses vaccinations was 1.2M by July 4. Since then the DOH are now claiming 150,000 a day average vaccinations in the NCR. If we say the most 2nd doses cannot be more than 100,000 a day that gives another 2M in the 20 days since. Its probably much less. So by now no more than 3.2M people in the NCR have had 2 doses. In line with Paranaque City recently saying they have doubly vaccinated 35% of their target population.

OCTA also produced this chart of the situation in cities around the country over the previous week:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bc898102ef.jpg

Mariveles, Bataan is something of a special case. It has a population of well over 100,000 but the majority of its nearly 600 active covid cases are linked to barracks of sub contractors in its economic zone. Many of them constructing a power station.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

July 22 DOH covid report update:

Tests coming along down to 43.1k

Regional data:

NCR 979
4A 775
C Visayas 656
W Visayas 651
C Luzon 563
Ilocos 442
N Mindanao 373

200s 1 region
100s 6

NCR down just 48 cases to be top with 16.8% of all cases.

Only 4 regions increased their cases. The rest had less.
Ilocos cases increased by 153, Caraga's by nearly 100, the CAR's by nearly 50.

The top 6 regions: 69.8%, down 1%

Similarly in the NCR. All but two cities had less cases. They were Pasig with 21 more and Taguig with 30 more.

Manila 138, QC 110, Makati 82, Taguig 75, Pasig 55, Paranaque 54, Caloocan 50

Provincially around the NCR small changes, mostly down:

Bataan 67
Batangas 74
Bulacan 195
Cavite 275
Las Union 34
Laguna 226
Pampanga 121
Pangasinan 74
Quezon 62
Rizal 104

Selected cities:

Bacolod 55
Baguio 44
CDO 155, up 82
Cebu 174
Davao 100
Gen San 57
IloIlo 122
LapuLapu 144, up 55

Aklan 175
IloIlo 129
Negros Occ 98

Bohol 70

https://www.rappler.com/nation/depar...nt-philippines

The Delta variant now officially locally spreading here. Only a matter of time before they have to use the term "community". A variant with a much higher viral load, so it is much more spreadable. Making the Philippines revised vaccination target of 58M even less protective of the population.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin, with respect to OCTA's table, are you able to supply their definitions for each column? I can guess at most, but more precision would be appreciated, if available.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin maybe offline for a while because of the earthquake at 04.50 this morning the epicentre is not that far from where I believe he resides. Secondly he may be experienced problems resulting from the heavy rains that we are currently having.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes B, correct on the power, it just came back after the lindol. The strongest for some time here. Yes, the source off Calatagan not too far from where we are to the west of Tagaytay. Otherwise the rains and wind withstood by the electrical system around here, to their credit Meralco have done some good work improving the system recently.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, Abner, will do that after I've done yesterday's data.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases announced yesterday totaled 6,845, 2 labs late , up 1k on the day before and the highest since June 26. Not very up to date as the backlog included was 1,474. Positivity up a little at 12.3%. Tests coming about the same at 44k.

Recoveries were only 2.3k.

Zero deaths announced. The DOH currently have problems with their data capture system. The deaths figures have been low recently, I expect a catch up larger number soon.

Active cases at 55,069.

Severe at 1,267, up 3 and Critical 771, up 13

NCR ICU 42%, down 2%. Nationally 52%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 1,123
4A 881
W Visayas 681
C Luzon 662
C Visayas 591
Davao 577
Ilocos 419
N Mindanao 371
E Visayas 370
Cagayan 322

200s 1 region
100s 3

NCR was again top with 144 more cases than the day before. At 16.4% of all cases.
4A added more than 100 to come second.
Davao added 282 more.
E Visayas added 240 more.
Cagayan more than doubled its cases.

Top 6 regions at 66.0 %, down 4%.

For the NCR cities 8 were substantially up, 2 down.

Makati added 60 more, Valenzuala 47 more, Pasay 21 more, Pasig 18 more.

An unusual ordering yesterday:

Makati 142, Manila 134, QC 129, Valenzuala 93, Pasig 73, Caloocan 61

Provincially Bataan added nearly 100 more, Cavite 59, Laguna 52 and Pangasinan 48 more over the day before.

Bataan 163
Batangas 110
Bulacan 185
Cavite 334
La Union 44
Laguna 278
Pampanga 119
Pangasinan 122
Quezon 48
Rizal 88

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 47, down
Baguio 50, up
CDO 171, up 16
Cebu 232, up 58
Davao 373, up 273
Gen San 98, up 41
IloIlo 82, down
LapuLapu 52, down

Aklan 135, down
IloIlo 161, up 32
Neg Occ 93, down

Bohol 63, down

Changes in Quarantines until the end of July:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ictions/story/

Panic stations. NCR getting those heightened restrictions with only a week of July left. I think MECQ would really fit the situation but the government can't afford it. so it has gone half way. At present Laguna is the other area at GCQ with heightened restrictions. Cavite was taken off mid July.

It probably escaped many that Davao del Norte and Davao del Oro were previously at the higher MECQ, so a reduction in severity of quarantine rather than an increase. Things are bad in the Davao region and the situation is not highlighted there for political reasons, I am sure. The Davao del Sur governor died of Covid complications last month. That province and Davao City still at MECQ.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Case Fatality Rate: Deaths as a percentage of total cases from the beginning. Ignores other unpleasant outcomes.

Infection rate: Active cases per 100k population. Always unclear what OCTA use for population. The DOH seem to use 2016 Census numbers, of course now very out of date.

Incidence: the same thing but new cases per 100k population.

ICU: covid ICU beds % use. Probably a weekly average

Test: Positivity. Probably also average rate for a week of tests.

DOH numbers are often revised after their daily announcement so the OCTA weekly updates are a more accurate picture of how things are going.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well, no tremors so far this morning and power still on despite the atrocious SW Monsoon continuing unabated here this morning.

I am frankly surprised that the LGUs in Manila are managing to still conduct tests at a reasonably high level and that the labs can still keep up the processing in these conditions. But maybe we will see a dip soon.

Yesterday about 600 less cases at 6,216, 2 labs late to submit. Small backlog included. Positivity from 45.6k cases was13.0%. Tests on the way a little lower at 44.3k.

Recoveries 6.8k

Active cases 54,401

Severe 1,251, down 16 and Critical 762, down 9

As predicted the DOH have fixed their data system and there is a large backlog of deaths:

Deaths 241 incl 139 RDs

NCR ICU 45%, up 3%. Nationally 56%, up 4%

Regional data:

NCR 919
C Visayas 761
4A 731
C Luzon 721
W Visayas 629
N Mindanao 397
Cagayan 392
Ilocos 357
Davao 328

2 regions 200s
2 100s

NCR still top with about 200 less cases. With 14.8% of all cases.
C Visayas in second place added 170 more.
MIMAROPA added 76 more to 152.

Top 6 at 66.9% of all cases, up 4%

In the NCR 9 cities had substantially more cases, 5 less.

QC had 60 more cases. Las Pinas 34 more, Paranaque 24 more, Manila 22 more.

QC 189, Manila 156, Caloocan 78, Las Pinas 77, Paranaque 61, Valenzuala 59

In the provinces Bulacan added 66 more, Rizal 46 more:

Bataan 154
Batangas 88
Bulacan 251
Cavite 253
La Union 39
Laguna 167
Pampanga 132
Pangasinan 123
Quezon 75
Rizal 134

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 80, up 33
Baguio 69, up
CDO 163, down
Cebu 170, down
Davao 195, down
Gen San 62, up 36
IloIlo 77, down
LapuLapu 112, up 60

Aklan 163, up 28
IloIlo 172, up
Neg Occ 44, down

Bohol 75, up

Quarantine news:

NCR curfew now 2 hours more at 10pm to 4am.

Vaccines:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/25/...shuns-walk-ins

The President denying the real shortage of vaccines in many NCR cities and also here in upper Cavite. I applied 2 weeks ago and have heard nothing. If there were a good supply LGUs could make plans for better distribution. Knowing that there is a shortage people will stand in flooded areas, desperate to get a shot.

Statistical PS:

Infection rates here at 1.5 active cases per 100,000 in Cebu City seem very low compared with the UK rate.
There it is estimated by the Office of National Statistics that the virus prevalence in England in mid July averaged 1 person in 75. Equivalent to about 1,300 per 100,000 population. Will be a lot higher in certain areas, but nowhere near the Philippine proportion. However, testing is far better in the UK with likely many cases here undetected. Poorer living conditions mean low infection/prevalence levels are potentially much more likely to produce a surge which overwhelms basic health services.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Thank you!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

On the face of it a fall of over 700 in cases yesterday. The DOH reported 5,479. But for some reason 678 were not announced. News management to keep the total under 6k? Out of the 47k tests 13.1% were positive. Coming along a lower 43.9k.

Recoveries 5.6k

Deaths 93. No info from GMA on RDs.

Active 54,262 , little change.

Severe cases 1,248, down 3 and Critical 760, down 2

NCR ICU 46%, up 4% Nationally 51%, up 5%
Possibly significant rises.

Regional data;

NCR 1,017
4A 724
W Visayas 592
C Visayas 559
C Luzon 541
Ilocos 484
N Mndanao 377
Davao 345

200s none
100s 4 regions

NCR added almost 100 to be top again with 18.6% of national cases.
Eleven regions had less cases, 6 more.
Ilocos added 127 more.
Bicol 86 more at 135.

In the NCR cities 10 had more cases, 5 less.
Makati added the most with 95 more, Pasig had 39 more.

QC 177, Makati 143, Manila 133, Paranaque 70, Caloocan 59, Malabon 49

Provinces around Manila: 7 of them added added less cases, 3 added more.
Laguna added 31 more, Rizal 20 more.

Bataan 142
Batangas 63
Bulacan 151
Cavite 213
La Union 51
Laguna 198
Pampanga 111
Pangasinan 83
Quezon 73
Rizal 154

Selected cities and areas

Bacolod 61
Baguio 26
CDO 161
Cebu 218, up 48
Davao 181
Gen San 33
IloIlo 68
LapuLapu 95

Aklan 147
IloIlo 193, up 21
Neg Occ 61, up 17

Bohol 57

Variants:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...63288b20ae.jpg
Latest variant report, now 119 Delta cases found.

Government pandemic spending:

Bayanihan 2 in September 2020 was the major spending programme at supposedly P165bn, but it ceased on June 30. Some lawmakers have alleged large amounts were unspent, the government now says only P6bn.
The Dept of Budget and Management produced the table below on June 25 for Bayanihan 2 spending.
Not all items shown here. Showing major unspent areas only. It shows large amounts were unspent and spending not obligated ie not contracted out. (Not shown here is P3.8bn for overseas workers repatriation and P3.4bn for vaccine procurement unobligated).
In all by June 25 P17bn was not obligated and P46bn was unspent.The government claimed earlier this month that P9bn was not obligated. Now that is down to P6bn.
The unspent amounts from Bayanihan 2 cannot now legally be spent. Spending on lab testing, extra risk payments to health workers, contact tracing involve the DOH, one of the main departments underspending.. Of course the government still claim nevertheless this spending will be made!
Earlier this year some lawmakers proposed there was no need for a Bayanihan 3 package, just extend Bayanihan 2 until the end of 2021. The President did in the end extend it from December 19 2020 to June 30 2021.
Confusing and we have to believe large amounts were spent in time before June 30. But it is clear government spending here is very slow.


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cf074c8582.jpg

A Bayanihan 3 law is waiting to be passed into law. The governor of the Central Bank has recently said he thinks the P400bn plus package is not needed, rather the spending should go on vaccination:

https://business.inquirer.net/327511...to-spur-growth

But with experts warning of a delta variant driven surge it would be needed, and probably more. All it had for cash hand out was 2 payments of P1,000 to each Filipino.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Nearly 2k more cases announced though 585 were backlog. Most from yesterday's held over. Eight labs late to submit. Positivity edged up to 13.4% from 45.4K cases. A much lower 27.8k in process, due to the usual weekend dip and rains.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 23 with 17 RDs.

Active cases up at 55,140

Severe 1,268, up 20 and Critical up 12 to 772

NCR ICU at 46%, unchanged, nationally 58%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1081
4A 962
C Luzon 783
C Visayas 611
W Visayas 579
Ilocos 476

3 in the 300s
2 200s
3 100s

NCR leading with 16.2% of cases.
C Luzon added 242 more.
4A 238 more
SOCCSK 177 more to 319
E Visayas 95 more to 235

In the NCR 6 cities added more and 8 less.
Valenzuala stood out adding 91 more.
Taguig added 45 more.

QC 204, Manila 150, Valenzuala 113, Makati 85, Pasig 80, Taguig 77

Provincially Cavite added 167 more, Laguna 101, Bulacan 93 and Pampanga 88.

Bataan 94
Batangas 100
Bulacan 244
Cavite 380
La Union 43
Laguna 299
Pampanga 199
Pangasinan 92
Quezon 67
Rizal 112

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 40
Baguio 35
CDO 163
Cebu 203
Davao 111
Gen San 89, up 56
IloIlo 122, up 54
LapuLapu 82

Aklan 144
loIlo 128
Neg Occ 50

Bohol 76, up 19

Latest OCTA update:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4

Rises in Infections in the NCR possibly linked to the delta variant. In CDO almost certainly.

Solid evidence that the delta variant is tremendously more infectious:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3ea500569c.jpg

19A/B strains the original forms of the virus in China 2019.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

More new cases added yesterday but nearly half were delayed. Either due to DOH software problems, the rains, weekend effect. Also 13 labs late to submit. Positivity maintaining 13% from only 30k tests. Coming along a similar low amount of tests..

Recoveries 5.7k

Deaths 72, 49 RDs.

Severe 1,299, up 31 and Critical 734, down 41
Concerning numbers.

NCR ICU 47%, up 1% National 58%

Regional data:

NCR 1,037
C Visayas 979
4A 882
C Luzon 722
Ilocos 708
N Mindanao 590
Davao 529
W Visayas 489

No 300s
1 200s
5 100s

NCR top with 14.4% of all cases.
C Visayas in second place added 368 more
Ilocos added 232 more.
N Mindanao and Davao each added over 200 more.

Top 6 regions had 68.4% of all cases. Up 1%

In the NCR the similar total saw 6 cities increase significantly, 8 fall.
QC added 142 over the day before.

QC 346, Manila 126, Caloocan 88, Makati 70, Taguig 64, Paranaque 54, Pasay 50

In the provinces Bataan added most, 63. Pangasinan added 45.

Bataan 157,
Batangas 73
Bulacan 254
Cavite 367
La Union 89
Laguna 241
Pampanga 136
Pangasinan 137
Quezon 64
Rizal 113

Selected cities and areas:

Bacolod 39
Baguio 83, up 48
CDO 256, up 93
Cebu 375, up 172
Davao 363, up 252
Gen San 110, up
IloIlo 46
Lapu Lapu 115, up 33

Aklan 142
IloIlo 155, up 27
Neg Occ 53

Bohol 39

The situation in the NCR:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/27/...in-ncr-yet-but

Maybe no general surge as yet, but a majority of cities, including two of the largest, Manila and Caloocan, and some medium sized eg Makati either having a significant increase in new cases and/or relative to population. Experience shows that once started these increases are difficult to control. Doubly difficult with the Delta variant... and the weather:

PAGASA forecast for typhoons rest of 2021 (already 6}

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...05c80165e8.jpg

These plus the SW Monsoon make virus transmission easier and interfere with testing, contact tracing and vaccinations.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A low 4,478 new cases announced yesterday. The DOH said it was lower due to Tuesday's cases (7,186) being included later on Monday than usual. But there are 652 cases from testing now held over from the 34.2k tested. A higher 15% were positive.

Recoveries 6.1k

Deaths 84 with 53 RDs.

Active 54,552

Severe 1,255, down 44 and Critical 764, up 30

NCR ICU 46%, down 1%, national 57%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,151
4A 701
W Visayas 540
Ilocos 334
C Luzon 334
C Visayas 326

1 200s
3 100s

NCR up over 100 with a high 25.7% of all cases.
W Visayas up 51.
Cagayan up 82 to 269.
12 regions with less cases.

In the NCR cities 7 had more cases, 6 less.
Standing out, Makati added 90 more.
Malabon added 54 more.
Las Pinas and St John each over 30 more.

QC 282, Makati 160, Manila 133, Las Pinas 74, Malabon 64, Caloocan 60.

Provincially all except Batangas and Rizal had less cases:

Bataan 56
Batangas 91
Bulacan 83
Cavite 237
La Union 20
Laguna 239
Pampanga 90
Pangasinan 47
Quezon 16
Rizal 118

Cities and areas:

Bacolod 40
Baguio 2
CDO 43
Cebu 89
Davao 69
Gen San 70
IloIlo 90, up 44
LapuLapu 56

Aklan 179, up 37
IloIlo 76
Neg Occ 32

Bohol 15

Government not going for another lockdown though some experts are calling for a short one.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/29/...cq-covid-delta

They really ought to scrap some of the current quarantines. Have either ECQ or GCQ for everywhere with heightened or lowered restrictions to be decided locally.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/29/...-going-outside

Latest from John Hopkins: 6.3M fully vaccinated!

Who'd be a Brgy Captain these days? It will be interesting to see if any try to follow his new policy. It will probably be ignored by most but as we saw on Jan 6 in the US some politicians have the power to get their more rabid followers to engage in illegal activities.

This is what can happen in stuffy police stations:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

My daily update has just disappeared when trying to upload. No time to redo it. Site not connecting.

Main points only:

Yesterday there were 5,735 cases announced but 8,002 were found positive in the most recent testing. Positivity up to 16.2%.
The 2,267 not announced may have been held back for news management purposes.

NCR cases up by 180.

NCR ICU up 4% to 50%

News:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/29/...cq-august-2021

But only for a third of the population.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Delta related covid surge in Thailand. But also in Malaysia, Myanmar, and Vietnam.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 8,562 cases announced. OCTA's 8k level finally breached. From the latest testing 7,841. So that total includes a backlog of 721. Cases held back from the day before were 2,267.So over 1,500 cases still held up by the DOH. Are they going to let them out by further one thirds a day for the next 2 days, like you might drain a too full dam? Positivity 14.9% from 52.6k tests, 51.6k on the way.

Media not commenting on this. Some there must know about it.
Nor are the OCTA group commenting. They are surely aware.
People here don't like losing face and that also seems to apply to organisations.

Some detail for yesterday and the day before:

Recoveries 2.9k and 4.1k

Deaths 145 and 176

Severe 1,424, up 169 last 2 days, Critical 743, down 21 last 2 days

Latest total 2,167

NCR ICU 52%, up 6% last 2 days. Nationally: 59%, up 2% last 2 days

Regional data

It so happens that the top 6 regions were the same over the last 2 days.
Yesterday's number first.

NCR 1,533 1,332
4A 1,294 836
C Luzon 984 744
C Visayas 881 592
W Visayas 532 592
Ilocos 523 337

Case growth over the last 2 days:

NCR added about 380
4A 600
C Luzon 650
C Visayas 550
W Visayas stable
Ilocos nearly 200

Yesterday only, other regions adding large numbers of cases:

Cagayan 300
Davao 280
N Mindanao 276
SOCCSK 130
E Visayas 100

For NCR cities:

29th July top 6:

QC 223, Makati 189, Manila 157, Malabon 122, Caloocan 92, Las Pinas 76

Note: missed Valenzuala number 29th. Maybe in top 6 as cases rising there.

Yesterday:

QC 319, Manila 155, Valenzuala 131, Makati 120, Pasig 109, Las Pinas 109

Provinces:

Bataan 191 159
Batangas 130 125
Bulacan 351 243
Cavite 463 285
Laguna 421 289
Pampanga 219 145
Pangasinan 121 52
Rizal 190 121

Bataan and Bulacan both showing big rises on 29th over 28th July.

Cities and areas;

Bacolod 76 22
Baguio 50 7
CDO 214 61
Cebu 234 205
Davao 210 87
Gen San 81 71
IloIlo 65 69
Lapu Lapu 128 79

Aklan 111 6
IloIlo 145 6
Neg Occ 48 65

Bohol 121 25

Big rises 29th over 28th:

Cebu City 116
IloIlo province 136


In case NCR and around goes to hard lockdown in mid August:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/30/...tine-ayuda-aid

Look down the back of the sofa!

But there are large funds controlled personally by the President and many Chinese financed building projects which could be delayed.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Despite all the well intentioned quarantine measures I sadly foresee an exponential growth in new cases. This week I travelled to BI Intramuros twice and noted that mask wearing is more prevalent in Marikina and Manila but a mite lax around Cubao in Quezon City and San Juan. I suppose it all depends on how seriously the various Mayors and baranquay captains consider this pandemic.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 8,147 cases announced. Only 1 lab late. Two not operating. Of the positives 84 were from backlog. Positivity 14.7% from 54.9k tests. On the way a lower 47.8k.

So unless there has been some major data error the DOH are still not announcing nearly 1.5k positives held over from July 29.

Recoveries a higher 9.1k

Deaths 167 with 102 RDs.

Severe 1,279, down 145 and Critical 792, up 49
Large movements in Severe cases recently.

NCR ICU 52% Nationally 59%
Both unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 1,740
4A 1,392
CV 871
CL 771
WV 671
IL 506

Top 6:73% of all cases.

400s 1
300s 1
200s 2
100s 5

NCR added more than 200, 21.4% of all cases.
4A added about 100.

The NCR, 4A and CL accounted for 47.9% of all cases.

In the NCR Taguig had 74 more cases.
Makati, Malabon, Manila and Pasig all had about 50 more.
Seven up,3 down significantly.

Provincially around the NCR 3 provinces showed increases. Quezon added 49, Rizal 42 and Batangas 23.

Cavite 461
Laguna 412
Bulacan 316
Rizal 232
Pampanga 155
Batangas 153
Bataan 133
Quezon 118

Cities and areas:

Bacolod 35
Baguio 33
CDO 112
Cebu 223
Davao 184
Gen San 97
IloIlo 80
LapuLapu 166, up 38

Aklan 169, up 58
IloIlo 186, up 41
Neg Occ 82

Bohol 68

Gloomy predictions from modelling:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/31/...nt-ecq-covid19

NCR will pay the price for low testing and vaccination.
Notice that the examples of ICU data from the MMDA chairman nowhere near the current average NCR ICU %. of 52.

Checkpoints going up.
They want to stop non APORs eg Seniors from going about. But they are allowed to be out for essential services. I have a statement to that effect ready on my phone in case that is not understood.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/31/...rting-midnight

Something interesting:

UK data on hospital patients with covid admitted for other reasons.
Complicating treatment.

I wonder how hospitals here deal with that?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well I have to eat my words with regard to C-19 booster shots. The UK has announced that it is planning to administer 32million boostersn the coming months.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 600 more positives announced yesterday. Two labs late, two non operational. A backlog of 1,268 was included, which is the majority of those held back for some reason from July 29. Still about 200 to come. Positivity slightly higher at 14.9%. Testing on Saturday a creditable 48.7k.

Recoveries 5.9k

Deaths 127 with 70 RDs

Active cases up nearly 3k to 63,646.

Severe 1,464, up 185, Severe 764, down 28
Great volatility in Severe numbers lately.

NCR ICU 51%, down 1%. National 59%

Regional data:

NCR 1,758
4A 1,472
CL 987
CV 890
NM 741
IL 685
WV 564

1 300s
3 200s
2 100s

More often now a return to the top ordering in 2020.
NCR with 20.1% of all cases.
4A added 80 in second place.
CL added over 200 in third.

NM added over 300 in fifth place.
Il added 179 in sixth.

The top 6 had 74.8% of all cases, up.

For the NCR 5 cities up, 7 down.

Notably up Paranaque adding 87. QC added 56. Caloocan 44.

QC 320, Manila 220, Paranaque 173, Makati 153, Caloocan 132, Pasig 127

Provincially Cavite added 156 more cases. Bulacan 95 more. Pampanga 63 more.

Cavite 617
Bulacan 411
Laguna 407
Pampanga 218
Rizal 177
Batangas 156
Bataan 128
Pangasinan 109

Cities and areas:

Bacolod 27
Baguio 44, up
CDO 238, up 126
Cebu 242
Davao 156
Gen San 101, up
IloIlo 67
Lapu Lapu 103

Aklan 150
IloIlo 169
Neg Occ 66


Bohol 59

The most pessimistic modelling forecasts NCR active cases over 500k in 2 months time. Now 12.5k.
Daily cases 18 to 30k.

House bill proposing mandatory vaccinations for entrance to private and government buildings open to the public:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...U?ocid=BingHPC

Since vaccinated can still acquire and transmit the virus present checks will still be needed at entrances next year. Imagine the lines to get inside. Bad enough now.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 8k cases announced four days in a row. Yesterday 8,167 with 3 labs late. The DOH estimates these would have added about 80 cases on past data. Positivity up at 15.7% out of 50.6k tests. As the weekend tests are processed we see the usual dip of tests on the way to 34.9k. A backlog of 223 cases was included.

There was still a deficit owing from held over cases in the last week of July. and by my computation there are still over 1k still being held by the DOH and not yet announced. Whether the DOH have good reasons for that or are choosing when best to announce bad news is not clear.

A doctor in the DOH has been having a go at the OCTA group:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/02/...ta-problematic

Notice he cites the 8,000 OCTA forecast, which conveniently for the DOH turned out to be only over 5k but with over 2k results held over. The total of those would have just exceeded 8k. He talks about backlogs but not about held over cases. All very petty but I guess there might be some rivalry and jealousy there. But mainly the DOH may be using him to bash OCTA in the media but at the same time holding back data.

Dr E Salvana doesn't have a good forecasting record himself, it seems:

https://www.dailypedia.net/2020/04/t...edsel-salvana/

Unfortunately as positivity creeps up testing is flat:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb7d33527c.jpg
As cases rise in Manila beyond previous peaks can testing keep up? Especially as at the same time the DOH vows to maintain vaccination levels at 250k per day. Presumably staff can be deployed on both? Notice also no news lately about contact tracing. It can't do much now,

Recoveries 9.1k

77 Deaths, 29 of them RDs. (deaths misclassified as recoveries...often a large daily number and never explained)

Severe 1,315, down 149 and Critical 751, down 13
Severe numbers continue to be volatile.

NCR ICU 55%, up 4% (!), nationally 60%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,074
4A 1,476
CV 873
CL 836
WV 573
IL 407

300s 2
200s 2
100s 5

NCR with over 300 more cases and a quarter of all cases.

Top 6 at 76.4% of all cases.
Up 1.6%.

Eleven of the 17 NCR LGUs with 100 or more cases.
Up 13, down 3.
QC 79 up, Malabon 75 up. Taguig 84 up. Valenzuala 37 up.

QC 399, Manila 230, Makati 175, Taguig 173, Paranaque 128, Malabon 118

Provincially small changes.
Quezon added 49 more, Laguna 30 more, Rizal 27 more.

Cavite 521
Laguna 437
Bulacan 399
Rizal 204
Batangas 151
Pampanga 134
Bataan 128
Quezon 127

Cities and areas:

Baguio 47
CDO 182
Cebu 258, up
Davao 151
Gen San 84
IloIlo 68
LapLap 77

Aklan 167, up 17
IloIlo 185, up 16
Neg Occ 68

Bohol 238, up 179

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 6,879, 9 labs late and includes a 351 backlog. Positivity a much higher (since April 26) 17.5% from 37.3k tests. Coming along 34.9k.

Recoveries 6.3k

Deaths 48, 18 RDs.

Active cases over 63k.

Severe 1,326, up 11 and Critical 758, up 7

NCR ICU 57%, up 2%, nationally 62%, up 2%

No locational data put out yet by the DOH.
In any case I may not have the time to give much daily detail later and for the rest of the week.
Will catch up on the detail at the weekend.

Some interesting news from the BBC:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...eede1851a6.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the usual dip in cases mid week. Total 7,342 with 6 labs late reporting. and a backlog (576) again included. Positivity 16.4% from 41.3k individuals. A higher 54.1k tests on the way.

Recoveries 7.3k

Deaths 90 with 51 RDs.

Active unchanged at 63k cases

Severe 1,263, down 63 and Critical 758 unchanged

NCR ICU 59%, up 2% Nationally 61%, down 1%

Regional data:
First a catch up on August 3:

NCR 1,385
4A 1,148
CV 931
CL 838
WV 554
IL 447

NCR with 16.7% of total cases, down nearly 700.
4A down more than 300.
NM up 100.

Top 6 regions at 77% of all cases.

Yesterday's:

NCR 1,717
4A 1,328
CL 880
CV 857
WV 581
NM 510

NCR up over 300 to have 23.4% of cases.
4A up nearly 200.
CV up over 300.
NM up 80

Top 6 regions a high 80% of cases.

Will catch up with locational detail on NCR cities, provinces and other cities at the weekend.


Aklan's data has been shown here recently.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...tick-continues


The spat between the DOH and the OCTA group about their forecasts and views has attracted interest from law makers:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...research-group

Re: NCR llockdown
 

For those of you Senior in Manila here is a somewhat reluctant confirmation that you can go out over the next 2 weeks:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8f13867383.jpg

The fill list at:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...eek-ecq/story/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The good intent of imposing the ECQ in Metro Manila took a huge blow yesterday with the crowd surges in Maynila and Las Pinas.
The Delta variant is here and will spread at an alarming rate. Lack of meaningful testing continues to hide the reality.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the DOH allowed 8,127 new cases to be announced...but 1,567 were held back and 8 labs were late in submitting. You could imagine there is a need to not announce some cases to ensure proper validation, but not over one thousand.
Tests done were 56k and a similar number on the way. Positivity went even higher at 17.3%.

Recoveries 4.3k

Deaths 196 with 131 RDs.

Active cases 60,895
Highest since May 3.

Severe 1,157, down 106 and Critical, 670, down 88
Large downward changes.

NCR ICU 58%, down 1% Nationally 60%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,043
4A 1,257
CL 786
CV 786
WV 728
NM 589

Top 6 regions 76.1% of all cases.

Will catch up on other locations at the weekend.

Today the 2 week NCR ECQ starts.

GMA news have helpfully summarized the latest Quarantine levels here:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

There was speculation that region 4A would get the same as NCR. But 16M people would be affected over a wide area. I think they would have liked to do it but can't afford the ayuda so the provinces have got different levels of quarantine for one week. Only Laguna got ECQ:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...009b40f5a1.jpg
Laguna

But Cavite got the less strict MECQ for one week. But its recent case growth looks faster:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...093950aa34.jpg

Bataan and Rizal got the same as Cavite.

For a number of weeks the DOH relied on the mantra that they had no evidence of community spread of the Delta variant. Only the less serious "local" transmission. When they knew their genomic testing was very poor. And there was plenty of evidence weeks ago from countries with much better testing how quickly the Delta variant could spread.

Slow to read and even make available the data they themselves generate and too quick to criticize others who even publicize the data and comment on it.

So we now have panic measures plus some panic being caused by the way they are being implemented and by words from the President.

Will these one week and two week measures be enough? I think they will need to be extended. But for long enough that is affordable and acceptable? One week more at the most for the NCR. Ayuda is also not distributed quickly enough to make it longer.

The DOH have promised an improved approach to testing and contact tracing. In such a short time? Though it will help if there is something of a lockdown as more people are at home. But then the virus will be spreading more domestically.

There are announcements on the treatment front about ICU beds, oxygen etc but they won't be enough I fear.

They are encouraging vaccination, good, but is there enough supply and the staff? And will it make much difference. The delta variant can easily infect once vaccinated individuals and also some doubly vaccinated.

The Delta variant has hit other Asian countries too but you have to feel the impact here could be one of the worst. It will also be national, not just the NCR and around.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Thanks for your daily updates Raffin.... always enlightening and worth a read.

But I have a sense of foreboding by your last paragraph.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Me too, P11. Hope not but now nobody is saying it won't be bad here. We've been second worst behind Indonesia. Perhaps we will maintain that with the Delta as their hospital system has been overwhelmed. Ours may cope better, but not everywhere and there are now increased cases in more remote areas. But Indonesia's cases are now going down so the worst may be over there. Ours are projected to go up much further, even by the DOH. Though they may be over doing it to compensate for their past over optimism and to scare the public.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday new cases well over 10k. The 10,623, highest since April 17, did not include any of the over 1.5k backlog still with the DOH. In fact 118 cases were held over. Positivity was up significantly to 18.4%. Tests were 58.4k with 56.6k on the way.

Recoveries 3.1k

Deaths 247, 150 RDs.
For those of you not always reading these updates I give the "recovery deaths" figures as I believe they are an indicator of the death rate in the more remote areas. Sick people dying and sadly not being cared for in "primary hospitals".

Active cases 74,297
Highest since April 26

Severe 1,337 up 180 and Critical 743, up 73
Big rises after big falls the day before.

NCR ICU 61%, up 3%. National 62%, up 2%

Regional data:

NCR 2,444
4A 2,052
CL 1,306
CV 1,057
WV 661
Davao 569
IL 508

Plus:

1 400s
1 300s
4 200s
4 100s

Top 6; 76.1% of all cases.

Will update on cities and provinces Sunday.

The NCR ECQ may not be returning MM to the ghost town of 2020 but the movement restrictions are in many ways more severe. You may not be allowed to shop in another city. Even leaving the NCR is difficult. There may be some people stranded later this month as this has just come out.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...eleazar/story/

I have personal knowledge that if you're not in business or a front liner you probably can't get on a domestic flight during the ECQ. They are still operating at a reduced level, especially to those destinations in GCQ. Despite having gone to the trouble and expense of getting tested.

The DOH has published the criteria they are using to categorize areas at risk, and give a list of those areas in the highest alert level 4:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/06/...id-19-severity

I went through the level 4 list and found the total population at level 4 was about 32M. Populations in 2016. Probably a few million higher now. That's about a third of the total population. Together with the not listed level 3 areas you feel the total must be at least half.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...95f6362e95.jpg

Dr John at 17.00 says a little about the situation here and the Manila lockdown in his latest video.
Guesses 20M people affected. While the MM population is officially around 13M he's about right as there are a few million more in satellite towns in the surrounding provinces effectively part of the NCR.