Re: NCR llockdown
 

Look Eleazar up and you will see little except that prior to heading the IATF he was in 4 different positions in 27 months. Rapid promotion but how could he be properly assessed?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well he retires in November the usual musical chairs scenario

Re: NCR llockdown
 

As senors are currently under house arrest it makes sense. If senors can't travel to and from a designated quarantine facility they would have to exclude them from travelling to the Philippines which for citizens would likely contravene international law.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

What International Law? Individual countries decide what happens in their jurisdiction.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Can you legally prevent a citizen from travelling from abroad to their own country. Didn't the Philippines find that out the hard way a couple of month back.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Item on BBC "Philippines COVID surge throws country into disarray" I personally wouldn't use the last word as the country has been in that situation for the last twelve months or more. What it highlights is something most of us have witnessed first hand is the hardship, desperation and general frustration of the ordinary Filipino, whose patience is now wearing thin. This item was aired on BBC News in the UK and started a wave of enquiries from those I know there.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Seniors are not under "house arrest". They are allowed to go out "for essential purposes" eg work, shopping. I'm going out as normal. I carry a statement from the IATF on my phone just in case but have never been challenged. Certain LGUs may say you can't enter Malls etc. Tagaytay is one, there the Guards at entrances ask for age sometimes, if so I lie and so far not asked for proof.
Unfortunately the stay at home order for Seniors is combined with that for minors, who have few valid essential purposes for going out. But the IATF have recently allowed them to go out to register for the national ID.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Gazza-d ,I presume that your partner is a Philippine citizen, if so I understand your last post.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a total of 6,979 announced, lower by 754. Two labs late in submitting. Positivity at 14.3%. Cases not announced and held over 189. Tests coming 45.3k.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/08/...d-laboratories

To their credit the DOH not spinning the fall in cases as any great success story. They claim to be puzzled as to the reason but I am sure they know why testing is not responding to the high positivity levels, but don't want to say. My guess is LGU resources are being switched to vaccination plus after Ayuda spending they don't have the funds to ramp up testing.

Recoveries 10,2k.
Deaths 170! RDs made up 122 of them.

Active cases now 63,376.
Severe 1014, up 35, Critical up 24 at 761

NCR ICU % fell 2% to 67%.

Regional data:

CAR 393
NCR 2,014
Ilocos 185
Cagayan 761
C Luzon 940
4A 1,262
W Visayas 244
C Visayas 119
Zamboanga Pen 206
Bicol 165

NCR at 28.9% of national cases.
Top 6 regions at 80.5%, up
NCR bubble at 54.6%, up

In the NCR 9 cities had significantly less cases,, 4 more.
Manila stood out with 149 cases, 119 less then the day before.
Caloocan had nearly 100 less.

Nearly all provinces surrounding the NCR reported less cases.
The exception was Laguna with 32 more.
Ifugao reported 139, 100 more than the day before.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 53
Baguio 77, down 21
CDO 41
Cebu 30
Davao 50
Zamboanga 136, up 6

Angeles 48
Tarlac 36

Puerto Princesa 62, down 21

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fca967988c.jpg
Japan

The Philippines getting some cover from a first world neighbour now reporting over 5,000 daily cases. Its Ppast cases a lot less at about 600k but also slow with vaccines. It has only vaccinated about 2% of the population, similar to the Philippines. Surprising as its population is an aging one.
But fairer to contrast the Philippines with Indonesia:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a740c585f1.jpg
Indonesia cases falling, albeit slowly lately..

The country has also administered nearly ten times as many vaccine doses.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, "more disarray" would be more accurate. Unfortunately The Philippines only gets covered during natural disasters...this is one but there are many other countries similarly affected all at the same time. At present India rightly getting the most attention in Asia.

Yes, the people here are very inventive and have found ways like food pantries to alleviate the situation. Thereby saving the government from much more critical attention with people starving out on the streets. It maybe would have been more effective for them to organise food banks as it could commandeer food out of best before date from the grocers etc. Perhaps they thought about that but didn't want to be seen to be too communist like. But also people here do not protest much. Behave very stoically and so things don't get changed.

One thing the ordinary people can't help much with is health care and I see one potential 2022 presidential candidate is thinking of running on a health agenda. A welcome change from the usual personality driven candidatures.

Major news media are not here consistently. Al Jazeera used to do a lot, now less. The country not a place journalists like to come to these days.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

If you don't test you don't find, India it's been suggested is experiencing four times the cases than are being officially reported due to low testing. I suspect the Philippines has been playing the same game from the very start due to national pride I assume rather than allocating resources.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I think they were playing that game a year ago but you would think they would have learnt from what happened in late 2020 when cases were low but level for many weeks, testing dipped before starting the present surge. They also know that they can't be rescued in time by vaccines. My sense is that they are resigned to being one of the last countries to exit the pandemic. Yes, they don't want to know all the cases now, after all the mostly young will get over it without any special treatment! It's too late in the pandemic for the private sector to want to establish new labs, especially in remote areas. But at present official case numbers are only rising in two areas, W Visayas and in the Mindanao regions. The government is resistant to re-allocate resources from infrastructure and defence to testing with an election next year.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin
Agree entirely. I am now going to pursue 13a rather than rely on Balik Bayan as I cannot see any meaningful relaxation of immigration regulations until 2023.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well currently balikbayans are allowed in again. Hopefully this time I'll get back in again before they change their minds again. I've always wondered if there has never been any meaningful testing in the Philippines and the bulk has come from arrivals and departures as since the numbers tested seems to have dropped since the travel cap was reduced to 4500 per day total. And as the numbers entering has been restricted the airlines have stopped comming so the numbers leaving has been choked off which has reduced the testing by many thousands

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 200 or so more cases announced. They included some backlog, 658, from past testing. The latest testing produced a positivity of 13.9%. A majority of cases yesterday came from outside the NCR bubble and lately that area has been at most at 55%, so it will be interesting to see some recent regional positivity numbers. Only 41.8k tests coming along.
Recoveries 9,2k

Deaths 204 with 149 of them RDs.
We await information on the date of all these deaths. Once the DOH published it daily.

Active cases 61,294. Severe at 1.7% so 1042 in that condition, up 28. Critical up 36 to 707.
NCR ICU at 68% capacity, up 1%.

Regional data 100 cases and over

NCR 1,978
4A 1,420
C Luzon 773
Cagayan 704
Zamboanga Pen 422
CAR 308
C Visayas 217
Soccs 202
W Visayas 195
N Mindanao 189
Ilocos 168
CARAGA 138
Davao Reg 109

NCR with a few less cases and its share at 27.6%.
For the top 6 regions all except 4A had less cases.
The top 6 had a lower 78.1% of national cases,
The NCR bubble had a lower 43.6%.
Zamboanga Peninsula is notable with 422 cases, 216 more on the day.
Central Visayas added 98 more.

Few significant changes for NCR cities, 3 up significantly, 2 down.
Notably Las Pinas with 54 more, Manila 56 more.
Makati with 36 less, Taguig 40 less.

For provinces Cavite added about 100 more, Quezon added 133 more to report 191 cases.
Otherwise those provinces surrounding the NCR were either the same or reported less.

Selected cities:

Baguio 72
Bacolod 45
Cebu 49
CDO 68
Cotobato 17
Davao 60
Zamboanga 292, adding 156.

Angeles 65
Tarlac 81..both up

Puerto Princesa 43

Vacciinations:

ABS-CBN report 320.6k fully vaccinated at May 4.
John Hopkins latest: 443.8k
and 2.8M doses administered in total.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

If only it was so easy to explain. If it was the DOH would use it. But they claim to be puzzled.
Testing of foreign arrivals isn't included in the DOH stats. Look back here on this thread and you won't see them.
What you will see are positive results for ROFs, (Returning Overseas Filipinos). Yes, there have been less lately. Very low numbers now. Yesterday only 7 were positive and tin the past you would see they peaked back in March at an average of 67 a day, falling since with the flight cap. Assuming a low 5% positivity that accounts for no more than about 1,200 individual tests.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"Well currently balikbayans are allowed in again."
Yes that is correct, but if you are here where are you allowed to fly to without quarantine? Then on return you face quarantine, so what is the point of obtaining BB status on return. My guess a costly and time consuming exercise. So 13 a looks like an attractive option.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

13a is not currently being processed here in the UK so there are only two options for returning spouses, 1year free entry on a bb or a 9a visa renewable every couple of months. My intention is to stay for 11-12 months so bb is tbe best option. Whatever the visa everyone has to quarantine so no savings to be made there. We had to return to the UK last July when my father passed and with various lockdowns and bans this is the first opportunity for us to return, assuming nothing changes between now add 29th May.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 300 less cases, but 5 labs submitted late. Positivity 13.9% and a backlog of 540 included. Tests coming along way down at 31.9k.
Recoveries 8.9k.
Deaths 90, 40 RDs.

Active cases 59,587.
Severe down 29 at 1013, Critical down 22 at 775.

Regional data:

BARMM 95
CAR 186
NCR 1,761
Ilocos 182
Cagayan 343
C Luzon 852
4A 1,359
MIM 206
Bicol 135
W Visayas 566
C Visayas 232
E Visayas 77
Zamboanga Pen 213
N Mindanao 214
Davao Reg 131
SOCCS 137

NCR down by over 200. At 25.7% of national cases. 4A also down. C Luzon up.
W Visayas added 371 more to report 566 cases.
Bicol added 45 to 135 cases.
Zamboanga Pen had over 200 less than the day before.

Top 6 74.7%, down.
NCR bubble 47%, up.

In the NCR Caloocan added 36 more at 197 cases.
Makati, Malabon and Valenzuala all also added more.
Otherwise the cities numbers were about the same or down.
QC was down by 42 cases and Taguig had 46 less.

In the provinces all in the NCR bubble had more cases, Rizal with 87 more than the day before.
Batangas had 32 less.
Pampanga and Quezon both reported a lot less.

For selected cities:

Baguio 86
Bacolod 51
CDO 112, up
Cebu 30
Cotabato 16
Davao 66
Zamboanga 153

Angeles 65
Tarlac 116, up 35

Puerto Princesa 119, up 76

Change in Quarantine to MECQ:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/10/...ntine-may-2021

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a3115d22a6.jpg
Apayao

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...76486b5975.jpg
Cagayan

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...778ceba7f7.jpg
Benguet

The IATF have seen something they don't like as all 3 seem to be improving.
Baguio seems to be improving also.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bd8aaed466.jpg
Baguio

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/09/...outhern-cities

Figures reported here recently would have told you that. Bacolod is the Visayan city with the highest number of active cases, currently at about 600:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...de62b8d47e.jpg
Bacolod

Similar graphs for CDO and Cotobato Cities.

Davao City had been on a downward trend but is now levelling:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...609136e0b7.jpg
Davao

Zamboanga City is most concerning with over 1,300 active cases:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...64a7a3dbff.jpg
Zamboanga

Also Puertp Princesa with over 570 active cases:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c2181127c3.jpg
Puerto Princesa

OCTA say that these LGUs have the benefit of being smaller cities so they can control the outbreaks. They're not that small. Zamboanga is just under 1m. Even Puerto Princesa is about 300k.

Dr John Campbell explaining well an interesting study on covid deaths:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...28dd24dbc2.jpg

The US Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has the UK multiple at 1.4, in line with an Economist Int Unit report a few months ago giving it 1.3. US 1.7, higher than their 1.3.
Japan more than 10 times than officially reported.
Russia 5.4 times.
The Philippines was not included due to lack of data, but Indonesia is estimated as having 2.5 times as many.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...073baf1be8.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday over 2k less cases announced. Weekend effect and some unknown factors depressing the collection of samples. So 12 labs not submitting. Positivity 12.2% and a backlog of 805 past results included. Tests coming along slightly higher at 33.4k.
Recoveries 7.8k.

Deaths lower at 59 with 19 of them RDs.
Severe 1022, up 9 and Critical 795, up 20.
Severe at 1.8% of active cases.
NCR ICU unchanged at 67%.

Location data:

Regions:

NCR 1,202
4A 787
C Luzon 620
CAR 369
Cagayan 358
W Visayas 288
Zamboanga Pen 247
Davao Reg 164
N Mindanao 160
Ilocos 156

NCR with more than 500 less yesterday. One quarter of national cases.
Calabarzon had nearly 600 less. C Luzon more than 200 less.
But the CAR had nearly 200 more cases.
Most other regions had less cases.
Though the Zamboanga Pen had 34 more.at 247.

For NCR cities all except Pasay and QC had many less cases. Pasay had just 9 more. QC only 8 more to report 425 cases, 35% of the NCR total.

Provincially all the bubble provinces and Batangas reported many less cases.
But Pampanga and Pangasinan reported more, 130 and 84.
Ifugao 111 more than the day before at 141.
Quezon province had 50 more.

For cities:

Bacolod 15
Baguio 51
CDO 29
Cebu 20
Cotabato 11
Davao 24
Puerto Princesa 11

Angeles 50
Tarlac 34
Zamboanga not avail. at time of posting.

The Indian variant has made it here. The Philippines joins a number of other countries too slow to act.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ant-from-india

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday another daily total in the 4 thousands, 5 labs did not submit. The DOH said "low testing output Monday". Positivity 12,5% with a backlog of results included at 651. Tests on the way at 41.2k.
Recoveries 8.3k.
Deaths 94 with 35 RDs.
Active cases at 53,214. Severe cases in primary hospitals now up to 1.9%, so Severe at 1,011, down 11 and Critical at 745, down 50.
NCR ICU down 1% at 66%.

For regions:

NCR 1,224
4A 1,039
C Luzon 505
Cagayan 332
W Visayas 281
CAR 222

Regionally the NCR again at a quarter of national cases .Region 4A up by over 250. C Luzon down by over 100.
Outside the top 6 regions Bicol, C Visayas and Davao Regions all added significantly more cases.
Soccsargen more than doubled its cases to report 161.

The top 6 regions at 74.4%, down nearly 2%.
The NCR bubble at 43.8%, up nearly 2% on the day before.

For NCR cities 6 went up significantly. Valenzuala stood out by more than doubling to 81.
Falling reports from Caloocan and QC. QC had more than 100 less cases than the day before.

Around Manila all provinces except Bulacan had more cases. Laguna over 70 more, Cavite 60 more than the day before.
Pampanga had 59 less, Pangasinan 41 less.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 86, up 71
Baguio 53
CDO 28
Cebu 13
Cotabato 21
Davao 69, up 45
Zamboanga 88, but yesterday it had 158!
Puerto Princesa 3

Angeles 23
Tarlac 58

On vaccination:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/12/...ed-philippines

7.7M Seniors? That's from the last Census 6 years ago. I did some calculations from a population site and made it 9.8M for mid 2021.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...nes-population

Totals;

Up to May 11 2.54 M doses, 515k fully vaccinated.

Useful to bear in mind when herd immunity is discussed the site above estimates the 2021 adult Philippines population at 71.9M, its total population then at 110.9M.
The DOH continue to use out of date census figures.

Latest OCTA report on most concerning urban areas outside the NCR:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7bada307e4.jpg
Daily attack rates in right hand column.

A mixture of Southern cities and some around Manila.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...001330d857.jpg
Zamboanga City

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 6,385 cases, 13.6% positivity. A backlog included of 354. Tests in preparation at 43.7k.
Recoveries at 4.3k, the lowest in a week.
Deaths 107 with 59 RDs.
Active cases at 55,260. Severe cases at a high 1.9% giving 1,950, up 39. Critical up 29 to 774.
NCR ICU down 2% to 64%.

Regions:

NCR 1,608
C Luzon 991
4A 962
Cagayan 523
W Visayas 394
Zamboanga Pen 253

NCR again at 25% of national cases,
Most regions up except C Luzon, which added nearly 500 more to unusually exceed region 4A.
Zamboanga had nearly 120 more.
Top 6 had 74.1%, down a little. NCR bubble 40.6%, down nearly 3%.
Just outside the top 6 were N Mindanao and the CAR at 220 and 190 cases.

In the NCR the great majority of cities had more cases.
Caloocan150 more. Pasig 56 more. Manila 38 more than the day before.

For the NCR bubble provinces Laguna and Rizal had moderate rises. But Bulacan added 114 more.
Cavite added 59 less.
Pampanga added 250 cases, 179 more than the day before.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 59
Baguio 98, up.
CDO 113!
Cebu 29
Cotabato 17
Davao 53
IloIlo 52
Zamboanga 133, up
Puerto Princesa 1

Angeles 84, up
Tarlac 96, up

On vaccination:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/05...e-deaths-study

I hope they are going to delay the second dose here. But do they do much learning from abroad?

Vaccination sites:

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...S-pattern.html
https://www.philstar.com/nation/2021...ination-center
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...O?ocid=BingHPC

The Nayong Pilipino vaccination centre project a showcase for all that is concerning about public private projects here. A Texas and California type facility whereas the people need more local centres.
Araneta centre, yes!

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

A long way off but the Finance chief budgeting for teens vaccination:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

I checked this out and there really are about 15M teenagers here. The evidence is that there is less benefit from vaccinating them than older members of the population.
But given the great reluctance here by the President to allow any resumption of face to face tuition and the poor substitutes in place now for a second school year their vaccination may be necessary to allow the restart of classes. But another P20bn when economic growth is forecast to be greatly down?

Testing in the provinces:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...268c4f9eb5.jpg
Tests done in Zamboanga City's main testing centre.

Notice that lately positivity there has sometimes reached as high as 40% yet the number of individual tests they are doing is at about the same level as at the start of 2021, when covid infection was much lower.in Zamboanga. An issue for many of the more remote provinces where infections are increasing lately.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2dd5a2976b.jpg
Second wave in Malaysia

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a3bde155e8.jpg
Taiwan's new wavelet up to 10 daily cases and they are worried!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 6,784 new cases, 5 labs late submission. Includes a backlog of 753. Positivity a little down at 13.1%. A higher 49.4k tests on the way.
Recoveries down at 3k.
Deaths 137, 71 of which RDs.
Active cases 58,986...Severe 1,062, up 12 and Critical down 7 at 767.
NCR ICU beds % down 3 at 61%.

Regional data:

NCR 1,697
4A 1,325
C Luzon 976
Cagayan 457
C Visayas 312
N Mindanao 299
Zamboanga Pen 292
W Visayas 283
CARAGA 197
Ilocos 190

The NCR added only 89 more.
Region 4A up by over 350 on the day before. C Visayas added over 130 more.
N Mindanao added 59 more to reach 299. Zamboanga Pen with 40 more added to reach 292 for the day.
Ilocos added nearly 70 more cases.

Top 6 regions 74.7%, up
NCR bubble 38.9% , down

In the NCR small changes.
QC added 69 more, Manila 29 more and Caloocan 59 less than the day before.
Marikina added 48 to have 85 cases.

Provincially those around Manila all added more, except Pampanga.
Cavite added 161 more, Bulacan 87 and Laguna 80 more than the day before.
Both Batangas and Quezon provinces added more cases, 56 and 68 more.
Pampanga added over 100 less at 148.

Selected cities:

Baguio 31
Bacolod 50
CDO 115, another high total
Cebu 42
Cotabato 19
Davao 34
Zamboanga 165, up 32

Angeles 43
Tarlac 98

Puertto Princesa 3

Bohol 122

Bohol population of about 1,5M, one city and so far only 424 active cases:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c3ac7245d8.jpg
Bohol

Another article on getting treated here:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busi...t?ocid=BingHPC

Quarantine change of NCR bubble to "heightened" GCQ"

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/money/busi...F?ocid=BingHPC
https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...le-in-churches

It would be better to have kept to the unmodified classifications and copy the UK model of only moving them when the data allows. But here they want to make token, small changes like indoor dining allowed up to 20%. Seems hardly worth doing for the owners and the effect on employment minimal.

Related to the NCR bubble restrictions on religious gatherings is this item about CDO city, where cases have been increasing.:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/cagay...covid-19-surge

Indian variant:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f89a886bc5.jpg
Recent Dr John You tube video

Many areas in the UK having to take special measures against the Indian variant, which seems to spread quicker than others. In Bolton, Lancs cases doubling in one week. Travel to India not restricted quickly enough. Along with many other countries too late. Except Australia. A good chance future relaxations to restrictions in the UK will be delayed. Although the UK has vaccinated two thirds of adults the Indian population is more hesitant.
With little vaccination accomplished here and some cases of the variant already identified the Philippines is at some risk. Poor genomic testing means the authorities won't know in time.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A slightly lower total yesterday at 6,739, though probably significant that 9 labs did not submit. Results were nearly all recent. Positivity slightly down at 12.9%. Tests on the way at a lower 34k.
Recoveries 9k
93 deaths, 36 of them RDs.
Philippines case fatality rate now at 1.67%.
Severe up 16 to 1,078, Critical also up, by 27, to 794.
NCR ICU use up 2% at 63%.

Regional data:

NCR 1,620
4A 1,371
C Luzon 827
W Visayas 552
Cagayan 524
Zamboanga Pen 336
N Mindanao 260

NCR at a low 24% of national cases.
A notable increase from W Visayas, nearly doubling.
Zamboanga Pen with 44 more added on the day before.
Bicol Region added 54 more to reach a high 188 cases.

Top 6 had 77.6% of cases, up.
NCR bubble 41.9%, also up.

For NCR cities Caloocan had more than 100 less to 128.
QC added more than 100 to have 408 cases. Manila fell a little to 178.
Taguig had 50 more than the day before to record 143 cases.
Pasay at only 29 new cases.

In the provinces Cavite, Bulacan and Rizal all had noticeably less cases. Laguna had about 50 more.
Batangas reported 311, nearly 100 more.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 76, up
Baguio 65, up
CDO 88, down
Cebu 30, down
Cotabato 10, down
Davao 96...highest daily total for many months.
IloIlo 113...more than double the day before.
Zamboanga 213, up 48

Puerto Princesa 11

Angeles 53, up
Tarlac 60, down

Excess deaths due to covid:

A long and detailed update from the Economist Intelligence Unit, following the US study noted here back on May 11.
The top countries only given here:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b97cc05647.jpg

For this part of the world Jakarta, not Indonesia presumably due to lack of data, features with a 40 per 100k pop excess deaths number.. Other SE Asian countries much lower. even negative. The Philippines with a negative number, which is surprising to me. Britain and the US about the same at 180 and 182.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A lower total of 5,790 published yesterday, 6 labs did not submit. DOH said low testing output Friday. Positivity and backlog data not available at time of posting.. Tests on the way at 40k.
Recoveries 7.5k.

Deaths 140, 90 of which were RDs.

Active cases 54,904
Severe 1,043, down 35....Critical 769, down 25.
NCR ICU beds n/avail.

The latest NCR cases chart. Testing output admitted by DOH to have been lower recently. Why they don't say. NCR positivity data not available lately.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...082264957d.jpg
NCR falling trend but low testing..

National deaths:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...956e2d87d8.jpg
Falling trend likely but not yet established.

Regional data:

NCR 1,204
4A 1,174
C Luzon 659
N Mindanao 390
Cagayan 337
W Visayas 298
C Visayas 291
Ilocos 254
CAR 237
Zamboanga 195

The NCR at a low 20,8% of national cases. More than 400 fewer cases, 4A and C Luzon also with less cases.
N Mindanao added 130 more cases than on the day before to report 390.cases in 4th place.
The top 6 regions at 70.2%, down over 7% on the day before.
The NCR bubble area down a little to a 40% share of national cases.

All the major NCR cities reported less cases except Paranaque with 91, 35 more than the day before.
QC 384, Manila 142,

In the provinces Bulacan and Laguna reported significantly less, Cavite and Rizal a few more.
Batangas with over 150 less.
Pampanga 29 less.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 49, down
Baguio 66
CDO 104, more
Cebu 30
Cotabato 6
Davao 62, less
IloIlo 49, less
Zamboanga 128, less

Angeles 32
Tarlac 125, more than double

Bohol 49
Puerto Princesa 42, more

Indian variant:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...998236c32d.jpg
Saturday update.

A number of clusters of one of the Indian variants (B.1.617.2) have been identified, mostly in England, but a few also in the rest of the UK.
The SAGE committee say it is possibly 50% more transmissable than the UK variant. They are confident existing vaccines will give good protection against severe illness but somewhat less against moderate and mild infection. They have recommended the UK government not go ahead with the next two re-openings, but nevertheless they will go ahead with the first, which is due today.
Good if it can be kept from spreading in any of the NCR cities here, but I think it will. Even changes in vaccine measures will only have a small effect in the UK, so the only measure that will stop it here are the stricter quarantines, which look like being loosened even though testing is down. Without a good genomic testing capacity we will just have to closely observe the data, which makes more testing here even more necessary. Look out for situations like in Pasay City a few weeks ago.
The US is also vulnerable. Their CDC have not yet even found it there yet.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a little under 200 more cases, positivity at 13.1% out of 45.2k tests. The positivity for cases announced on the previous day still not published. Results are recent, in fact 79 results have been held over. Tests on the way at a much lower 25.7k. Something, or a number of factors, continues to depress testing. I'm sure the DOH know what but don't like to say.

Recoveries 6.6k.

Deaths 72, with 31 RDs. Lowest deaths in 6 days.

Severe 976, down 67....Critical 759, down 10.
NCR ICU 56%, down 7% on two days ago.

Regional data:

NCR 1,318
4A 1,231
C Luzon 708
W Visayas 414
N Mindanao 347
Zamboanga Pen 317
Ilocos 245

NCR up a little at 22% of the national total. Regions 4A and C Luzon also up a little.
W Visayas and Zamboanga Pen both up by over 100.
CAR and C Visayas both down by over 100.

Top 6 regions at 72.5%, up.
NCR bubble up a little at 41.8%.

In the NCR Caloocan, Pasig, Valenzuala and Taguig all reported significantly more cases.
Paranaque and QC both had less.

Provincially all the Bubble provinces except Rizal reported significantly more cases. Rizal had 44 less.
Pangasinan had 42 more.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 69
Baguio 56
CDO 163, 59 more
Cebu 18
Cotabato 15
Davao 71
IloIlo 63
Puerto Princesa 114, 72 more
Zamboanga 236, 108 more!

Angeles 33
Tarlac 97, less

Bohol 72, more

OCTA update on the NCR:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...esearch/story/

Obviously the NCR restrictions have had some effect on case numbers. But the average daily attack rate of about 10 in the NCR is still high, a figure only seen in the UK now in a few areas where the Indian virus has taken a hold. For example in England Bedford recently averaged 18 per 100k per day. NCR positivity at 11%. If after relaxation of restrictions R increases from 0.57 then cases will increase again. Given that testing has fallen lately anyway, not a good prospect. Even now 6 of the 17 cities are seen by the DOH at moderate risk, the rest high risk.

Vaccine plan:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

A somewhat garbled report. The expansion areas seem to be ones to be vaccinated after the so called "hotspots".
Anyway, 58M people to be vaccinated by August? Never mind taking into account people already vaccinated, children and those who can't or don't want to be vaccinated. Let's look at this at a basic level.
One or two doses? Let's say just one dose, following the UK, That's 100 days to the end of August. If the Philippines can match the best the UK achieved back in mid March when they achieved 600k doses a day and keep that going for 100 days they will do it! But the UK couldn't keep it up due to vaccine supply falls and is now doing about 470k a day.
We couldn't even get near to it being achieved and anyway no experts here are promoting the delayed second dose strategy. Plus difficulty getting supplies. The Philippine's neighbours are all getting concerned about increasing their own vaccinations as they are seeing increased cases, They can put out statements like this as the public is too pre-occupied with staying alive in the pandemic, Miss Universe, and the local media supine. End of the year if we're lucky, not August. And then we need to deal withy the "expansion areas". But some of those can easily develop into hotpots in the meantime!

Form filling before getting vaccinated:

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...nation-process

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Announced cases yesterday fell by nearly 1,500, At 4,487 the lowest since March 17. Eight labs did not report on Sunday and unusually the DOH spox gave an idea of how many cases might have been added if they had. She said about 2.7%. That would probably add over 100 cases. There was a backlog included of 1,020. Positivity at 13% of 26.7k cases. Tests on the way at 28.5k.
Recoveries 6.4k.

Deaths 110, 64 of them the unexplained and persistent RDs.

Active cases 52,291.
Severe cases 1,046, up 70 and Critical cases up 25 at 784.

Regional data:

NCR 871
4A 802
C Luzon 565
W Visayas 218
CAR 215
SOCCSK 209
N Mindanao 205
Zamboanga Pen 205
Ilocos 192

The NCR total was down more than 400. The NCR share at 19.4%.
Regions increasing on the day before were the CAR by 84, Cagayan,70 and SOCCSKSARGEN, which had 33 more cases.

In the NCR all cities reported less cases.
The top 3 cities were QC which had 258, Manila 110, Caloocan 67 new cases.

All the provinces around Manila reported significantly less cases except Pampanga and Rizal.
Pampanga had 13 more and Rizal 17 more.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 33
Baguio 57
CDO 33
Cebu 21
Davao 45
IloIlo 22
Puerto Princesa 100, lower but high.
Zamboanga 135, 100 lower but high

Bohol 84, up 12

Angeles 20
Tarlac 23

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday saw an increase of 213 cases at 4,700. Seven labs not reporting. No info on them. Positivity up a little to 13.8% on 30.8k individual tests. Included a backlog of 446 cases, Tests on the way at 45.6k.
Recoveries 7k.
Deaths 136, 88 of them RDs. High numbers continue.

Active cases 49,951, the lowest since March 14.
Severe up 3 to 1,049, Critical down 35 to 749.
Severe cases consistently now over 2% of total cases.
NCR ICU unchanged at 56%.

Regional data:

NCR 984
4A 912
C Luzon 611
Ilocos 271
W Visayas 266
Cagayan 228
CAR 223
Zamboanga Pen 214

NCR at 21% of national cases.
Region 4A with only 62 less than the NCR.
Ilocos 4th.
Top regions up or stable except SOCCSK, 49 less, C Visayas 46 less and N Mindanao, 96 less.

Top 6 regions 69.6%, up on the day before's figure of 64.2%
MCR bubble 39%, up on 37.4%.

Ten NCR cities had modest increases yesterday. Notably Valenzuala was 38 up, QC 36 up and Paranaque, up 28.
Las Pinas with 12 less.
Top 4 NCR cities were QC at 222, Manila 122, Caloocan 98 and Paranaque 78.

In the NCR bubble provinces Cavite had 89 more, Laguna 50 more.
Bulacan and Rizal had 33 and 61 less.
Outside the bubble Batangas had 58 more, Pangasinan 36 more.
Pampanga had 28 less.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 72, up
Baguio 94, up
CDO 47, up
Cebu 13
Davao 79, up
IloIlo 77, up
Puerto Princesa 23...big fall. The main lab seems to have dealt with a backlog of results after a week closed earlier this month.
Zamboanga 121, still high

Angeles 47
Tarlac 50...both these C Luzon cities up

The rise in cases in some southern and N Luzon cities is notable and judging by recent positivity there they could find many more. Main testing centers only:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...22544c61fc.jpg
Bacolod City around 20%

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ece1490d23.jpg
IloIlo City over 10%.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4643a277d8.jpg
Bohol Island....around 15%
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4d822658e0.jpg
Cotabato City rising to over 20%

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...794d011290.jpg
Zamboanga City varying from 20 to 40% lately.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca562cf93e.jpg
Puerto Princesa...rose to more than 50% lately.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b60cd9317a.jpg
Baguio City at 20 to 25%.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...932a71c35c.jpg
Tarlac at 30 to 50% recently.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday another 1,400 more new cases added than on the day before. Three labs late. Positivity a slightly lower 12.6% out of 49.2k tested. 102 cases held over. Tests coming along on 43.4k individuals.
Recoveries 4.1k.

Deaths again high at 135 and 71 of those more RDs.
Active cases 51,912
Severe in primary hospitals 1,038, down 11;Critical 779, up 30.
NCR ICU use 59%, up 3%

Regional data:

NCR 1,354
4A 1,037
C Luzon 829
W Visayas 487
Cagayan 392
Zamboanga Pen 275
MIM 258
Ilocos 245
C Visayas 231

NCR with 370 more cases and 22% of the national total.
Zamboanga Pen regains 6th position. .Notable that MIMAROPA, a group pf islands, is in 7th position.

Top 6 regions 71.7%, up 2%
NCR bubble 37.8%, down 1%

For NCR cities 11 were up moderately, 2 down.
Pasig put on 68 more, Taguig 53 more and Valenzuala 38 more than the day before.
QC with 229, Manila 135 and Caloocan 119 cases were the top 3 cities.

In the provinces Bulacan, Laguna and Rizal all added more cases than the day before. Laguna added the most, 57.
Cavite added 25 less.
Outside the NCR bubble Pampanga added 177 cases, 76 more than the day before.
Pangasinan added 58 less.
Quezon province added 83 cases, but the day before only 11.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 110, up 28
Baguio 7, down 87!
CDO 111, more than doubled!
Cebu 45, 32 more and the highest for over a week
Davao 34, down
IloIlo 82, up slightly
Puerto Princesa 63, up 40
Zamboanga 143, high again and up 22

Bohol 28, down

Angeles 60, up 13
Tarlac 91, up 41

One reason why covid patients may not be welcome in regional private hospitals;

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...h-covid-claims

Vaccinating children:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...p?ocid=BingHPC

This Senator seems to be one of the better ones here, yet he doesn't seem to understand the concept of herd immunity. The idea is that you don't have to get to 100%.
Also if you give 30M people vaccine more priority who will they displace? People who are much more likely to spread the virus!
Better to prioritise the teachers!
Also another example here of the constant requests to the FDA to investigate drugs and vaccine applications where many studies have already been undertaken in other countries. and probably done far better than could be here. Only necessary if Philippine conditions are very different.

As we are talking about herd immunity the latest antigen test survey data from the UK suggests that pre-vaccination in the UK about 18% of the population had covid antibodies. With vaccination it is now at 69%. So you can say that here we are starting with a much lower figure as the UK outbreak was far worse last year, even allowing for more under reporting here. For more on this view Dr John's Wednesday update on You tube.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday an increase of 158, 5 labs not reporting. Positivity at 13% from 44.8k individuals including a backlog of 425 results. Tests coming along 46.2k Nowhere near the level it should be.
Recoveries at a low 2.6k.

Deaths 141, 74 of them RDs.

Comparing deaths over the last few days.
The chart from 5 days ago (ignore trend lines)

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb5d77d9e5.jpg
The latest chart:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb38690c85.jpg
Levelling

Active cases 55,531.
Severe 1000, down 38, Critical 777, down 2
NCR ICU 56%, down 3%

Regional data:

No region yesterday was under 100 cases. Two regions at 106: the CAR and SOCCSK.
200 and over:

NCR 1,393
4A 1,204
C Luzon 816
W Visayas 500
C Visayas 287
N Mindanao 257
Cagayan 239
MIM 227

NCR with a few more cases. Its share slightly higher at 22.3%.
N Mindanao up 91.
C Visayas up 56.
Cagayan down more than 150.

The share of the top 6 regions down a little to 71.2%.
NCR bubble up 2% to 39.9% of national cases.

QC added 123 cases on the day before.
Mandaluyong 26 more.
Caloocan, Makati , Paranaque and Taguig all had a few less.
Top 4: QC 352, Manila 159, Pasig 148, Caloocan 104.

Provincially:
Three NCR bubble provinces had substantially more cases.
Cavite 346
Laguna 327
Bulacan 248
Then Rizal with only 5 less at 183.

Batangas had 75 more at 241.

Pampanga had 41 less at 136.
Pangasinan up 25 at 68.

Selected cities:

Bacold 105...another high report
Baguio 50
CDO 118..again high
Cebu 38
Davao 106..highest for a while
IloIlo 90...cases rising
Puertp Princesa 101.....38 more and cases rising recently
Zamboanga 50...nearly 100 less.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8985e41723.jpg
Davao City going up again..

Bohol 119 .. 91 more reported

Angeles 35
Tarlac 78. both down

Vaccine totals from DOH at May 18

First: dose 2.5M people
Second dose 0.8M people

Re: NCR llockdown
 

An increase of 573 cases to add 6,831 to the total. Four labs did not report. Included a backlog of 484 cases. National positivity stable at 13% and 40.4k tests on individuals are in preparation.
Recoveries 8k.

Deaths again high at 183, 131 of them RDs. These latter deaths seem to be from patients not in primary hospitals and from the last month and not further back in time. But the DOH never say anything and nor do the media. Death and regional case data are the two covid stats the DOH do not seem to want widely known.

Active cases 54,326.
Severe 1,032, up 32...Critical down 16 at 761.
NCR ICU at 61%, up 5%!

Regional data (200 cases and over)

NCR 1,408
4A 1,247
C Luzon 1,064
W Visayas 442
Zamboanga Pen 371
C Visayas 304
N Mindanao 299
SOCCSK 293
CARAGA 218
MIM 204

Only one region, BARMM, in two digits.
NCR at 20.6% of national cases, down.
C Luzon up by about 250 cases, Zamboanga up by 201..
SOCCSK up by nearly 200.
Cagayan down by about 100,

Top 6 regions at 71.5%, up a little
NCR bubble 38.3%, down 1.6%.

In the NCR Makati added about 50 more, Taguig 30 more and Caloocan 25 more than the day before.
QC added 39 less, Pasay 22 less.
Otherwise case numbers fairly stable.

QC 313, Pasig 140, Manila 134, Caloocan 129. Makati 107.

Provincially bubble provinces Cavite, Laguna and Rizal added more cases but Bulacan had 248, the same as the day before.
Batangas added 36 less.
Pampanga added 81 more to record 217 cases.
Pangasinan added 33 to report 101 cases.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 45, down
Baguio 53
CDO 122..again high
Cebu 44
Davao 119, up
IloIlo 55, down
Puerto Princesa 28
Zamboanga 192, up 142!

On vaccine roll out here:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/filip...urvey-may-2021

Obviously a lot of work to be done to change public attitudes so in some ways the late arrival of vaccines here not such a bad thing.

International comparisons:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e829468dc9.jpg
By case numbers..


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...23da9275f0.jpg
By new cases May 20..

Philippines at 15th, but we rose to 10th position on May 21.

Also, two days ago Philippine deaths per million was at 178, the same as Indonesia. Yesterday the Philippines rose to 180. Indonesia at 178.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The DOH announced only 3,083 cases yesterday. Held over 3,160. A large number of cases which could not be added due to problems with their data repository system. They don't say anything about those cases. In addition 3 labs were late and on that they helpfully tell you that in the past those labs contributed about 2.5% of positive cases. So we are probably missing about 80 cases. Positivity was once again 13% from 42.9k tests.

Recoveries 6.8k.

Deaths 38 with 25 of hem RDs.
Also 1,478 cases have been deactivated as duplicates!

Active cases 50,635.
Severe 1,013, down 19. Critical 760, down 1.
NCR ICU 60%, down 1%.

Location data:

As more than half the positive results have been held back I will just give a summary and concentrate on locations with an increase. No national share statistics.

Regions:

The top 3 regions all fell by around 800 cases:

NCR 613
4A 456
C Luzon 260

Regions showing an increase:

CAR up 13 to 156
E Visayas up 55 to 169
Davao Region up 24 to 217

All others down.

For the NCR all cities down.
Top 3: QC 172, Manila 59, Las Pinas 57 (!)

All provinces surrounding the NCR were down except for Quezon province, 12 up.

Change in Quarantine for NCR plus and other areas announced for rest pf May though announced late:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ictions/story/

Fairly meaningless with all the "heightened restrictions".

Stop press: IloIlo City put up to MECQ.
Daily average cases up by 3 times in May so far over April.
Lots of workers in City Hall infected.

Two of the Philippine's neighbours:

Malaysia announces a daily record 6,976 cases. Though it has had less than half the cases of the Philippines. Interestingly it now has more active cases, 57k, though that may be due to definition differences.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...408d4f80da.jpg
Malaysia with higher second wave..


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c4856802f6.jpg
Indonesia's cases falling, though a little erratically..

Still only 3.6% of the population fully vaccinated. (Philippines less than 1%.)

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday was getting back to normal. although cases are likely lower two days after the weekend. I say "getting back" as 937 cases were held over. Positivity 12.8% and a low 31.6k tests in preparation. Also 6 labs not submitting. The DOH continuing to help us estimate the effect of that, after a year when sometimes as many as 20 labs were not reporting. Better late than never though. They say the 6 late yesterday have contributed 1.3% of positive cases recently. So maybe would add 60 or 70 more.
Recoveries 6.7k.

Deaths 39 with 18 RDs.
Active 48,917.
Severe 1,027, up 14 and Critical 783, up 23.

NCR ICU 61%, up 1%

:Location data: (200 and over)

4A 1,041
NCR 1,034
C Luzon 477
W Visayas 389
N Mindanao 267
Cagayan 225
Bicol Region 212

Only ahead by 7 cases but for once Calabarzon leading the NCR to take top position.
NCR at 20.8% of cases.
Notable is the rise of Bicol to 7th position.

Top 6 regions with 69% of national cases.

Most NCR cities with more cases after the DOH data repository issues fixed.

QC 209, Manila 114, Pasig 99, Las Pinas 82, Makati 75, Caloocan 68
Las Pinas joining the group of more populous cities that usually lead with cases.

All provinces surrounding the NCR with many more cases so the NCR bubble at 39.5%, up 1.2% on the previous figure.
Laguna had 230 more cases than on the previous day to lead at 335.

For selected cities:

Bacolod 72
Baguio 15, down
CDO 103, nearly doubled
Cebu 36, up
Davao 80, down but still higher than earlier in May
IloIlo 66, up
Puerto Princesa 66, up
Zamboanga 109, up

Bohol 67, up

Angeles 18
Tarlac 20

Vaccination roll out:

The Philippines vaccination roll out needs to take into account the recent increases outside the NCR and surrounding provinces:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovid-19/story/

Aid and economic stimulus:

The Bayanihan 3 Bill being considered in the House of Representatives.. A few thousand pesos more ayuda included. Confusingly some back pension pay for the military also included. And a proposal to give P10k to each positive case!!
But the main problem is the source of the money.
Looks like it will not be implemented until much later this year.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/house...em-may-24-2021

An example of what can happen in some provinces:

Negros Oriental:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3ca8642136.jpg
Rapid recent rise in cases...

Its main city is Dumagete, pop about 150k, though for some reason the DOH do not include it in their daily data report.

This Rappler report mentions 184 active cases and details the pressure health care facilities are under in the province:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/negro...aming-may-2021

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Daily reports continue to look lower but test positivity is high and has only fallen a little recently. So yesterday 13.1% from 32.1k tests. Additionally 10 labs did not report on time. Inconsistent messaging from the DOH in that no estimate of what that means for extra cases missing from these 10 labs was given out. Also 235 cases were held over for some reason. Testing numbers can be expected to be down from the weekend effect and so tests coming along are only at 33.2k.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0989322186.jpg
The steep fall in positivity is at least paused, yet tests continue to fall...

Recoveries 4.7k

Deaths 36 with 10 RDs.
Cumulative official total now over 20,000.

Active cases 48,201
Severe 1.012, up 1 and Critical 771, up 11.
NCR ICU 58%, down 3%.

Regional data:

4A 569
NCR 525
C Luzon 471
N Mindanao 337
Zamboanga Pen 273
W Visayas 240
Cagayan 225

For the second day 4A had more cases than the NCR, although both had less than the day before. The NCR with only 13.2% of national cases.
Notable falls in the three Visayan regions. W Visayas fell by 149, Central by 80 and Eastern by 124 cases.
But N Mindanao reported 70 more and Zamboanga 132 more cases.
The CAR had 111 more than the previous day, at 162 cases.

The top 6 regions with a lower 60.8% of national cases.

In the NCR the top 6 cities were:

QC 170
Taguig 57
Manila 51
Pasig 40
Paranaque 33
Caloocan 31

For provinces around the NCR all except Pangasinan, with only 31 cases, reported less cases.
Laguna stood out with 111 cases, 224 less than the day before.

The NCR bubble was at 27.5% of national cases, much lower than for the previous day.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 47, down
Baguio 42, up
CDO 72, down
Cebu 30
Davao 96, up
Gen Santos 41
IloIlo 42
Puerto Princesa 96
Zamboanga 164, up 55

Bohol 12, down

Angeles 12, down
Tarlac 69, up 49

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...515bc401ad.jpg
General Santos City

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a higher 5,310 new cases announced with 4 labs late submitting. Backlog of 405 included. Positivity back up a little to 13.5%. from 36.6k tests. Tests coming along at a higher 46.2k.
Recoveries at 8k.

Deaths at a higher 150, 86 of them RDs.
Severe at 1013, up 1, Critical at 783, up 12

NCR ICU 57%, down 1%

Regional data (200 and over)

4A 1,025
NCR 988
C Luzon 657
N Mindanao 401
Zamboanga Pen 287
C Visayas 266
W Visayas 255
CARAGA 233
CAR 230

NCR at only 18.6% of national cases and again second to Region 4A.
Both regions added around 450 more cases.
The other leading regions all added more cases.
SOCCSK added over100 less.

The top 6 regions had 68.2% of national cases, nearly 8% more than the day before.

For the NCR QC added more than 100 on the day before. Manila's cases more than doubled. Pasig had 89 more. Caloocan had 60 more, as did much smaller Muntinlupa.
QC 276, Pasig 129, Manila 108, Caloocan 91

Looking at the charts for all NCR cities one feature lately is that the daily DOH announcements are often weeks after dates of infection. This can be seen from the divergence of the trendlines (by date of announcement) from the bars (by estimated date of infection}

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...83d1c77202.jpg
QC

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8fb8fd83bf.jpg
Manila

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1a7ef35717.jpg
Marikina clearly showing much delayed reporting recently.

One hopes the decision makers take account of this when deciding on their next moves on Quarantine levels.

Provincially all NCR bubble provinces had more cases.
Cavite 126 more, Laguna nearly 140 more, Rizal 69 more and Bulacan 26 more.
Batangas had 58 more but Pampanga had 55 less.

Cavite 346, Laguna 250, Rizal 175 and Bulacan 155.

The NCR bubble had 36.1%, up nearly 9% on the day before.

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 54
Baguio 105, up 63
CDO 78
Cebu 38
Davao 89, still higher
Gen Santos 42
IloIlo 45
Puerto Princesa 51, down
Zamboanga 70, down 94

Bohol 51, up

Angeles 74, up 62
Tarlac 70, up 1

Herd Immunity

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/26/...ion-protection

The infection and vaccine reality here moving the Philippines to the more nebulous goal of "population protection".
I've also heard this called " covid containment".

So in many countries, certainly here, probably years before covid 19 gets down to being like influenza. Keep your mask!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 1k more cases yesterday at 6,483, 6 labs late in submission. Including a backlog of 499 cases. Positivity down a little to 12,5% from 47.9k individuals tested. Tests on the way down a little at 45.7k.
Recoveries lower at 4.3k.

Deaths the highest since April 10, when there were 225.
RDs at an amazing 139

I will look at deaths regionally tomorrow.

Active cases 48,109
Severe at 1,010, down 3 and Critical 770, down 13
NCR ICU unchanged at 57%.
But Central Luzon ICU at 69%. and Region 4A ICU at 68%.

Regional location data (200 and over)

NCR 1,327
C Luzon 824
4 A 764
Cagayan 627
W Visayas 594
Davao 290
SOCCSK 267
Bicol 241
Zamboanga 236
C Visayas 220
CARAGA 218
N Mindanao 208

The NCR returns to the lead with 339 more cases than the day before, 20.5% of the national total.
Region 4A was down by 260 cases but C Luzon had 167 more.
Cagayan was up by close to 400 cases.
W Visayas added well over 300 more.
SOCCSK added close to 200 more.
Bicol put on over 100 more.

N Mindanao fell by nearly 200 on the day before.

Top 6 regions 63.6%, down.

For the NCR seven cities had substantial increases. Three fell significantly.
Makati added 76 more, Las Pinas 50 and Pasay 52 more.

Cities with 100 and over: QC 302, Pasig 121, Makati 115 and Manila 111

Provincially in the NCR bubble only Bulacan had more cases, nearly 40, than the day before, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal all reported less.
Laguna led with 226 cases,
NCR bubble was at 31.6% of national cases, down.

Pampanga added 91 more to report 191.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 98, up
Baguio 43, down
CDO 110, up 32
Cebu 29
Davao 178, up 89
Gen San 115, up by over 70
IloIlo 100, up 55
Puerto Princesa 23, down
Zamboanga 125, up 55

Bohol 37, down

Angeles 51, down
Tarlac 59, down

A bad hospital situation in a far away island:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/27/...urge-hospitals

The latest OCTA report:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...23-octa/story/

A good summary but I would not agree that positivity at 10% in the NCR is "slightly higher" than the WHO target of 5%. It's double. While they estimate R at a much lower 0.52 testing has fallen and more opening up is being considered. Add to that the imminent change to wetter weather and new variants, so the prospects for the NCR are probably at the upper level of "moderate risk".
For C Luzon particularly and 4A the risk looks a little greater, though still just about moderate.
But yes, recent case rises in cities and municipalities in the Visayas and Mindanao should be given more attention as there testing is more difficult and hospital facilities are very inadequate.
Vaccination a long way away from helping with only 1M, fully vaccinated and 3.5M having had the first dose. (according to Johns Hopkins).

Noteworthy that despite the recent fall in national cases the levels are still at or higher than at the peak of the August 2020 surge for the three main centers of the pandemic here:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...96c4c945e8.jpg

The same can be seen for the NCR plus "bubble area":

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e2eb6eae04.jpg
NCR plus bubble

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0a0ca2fa06.jpg

Strong evidence from Italy presented by Dr John recently on You tube on the level of infection transmission protection provided by vaccine.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Good work as per usual Raffin. Thanks.

However one thing that is not clear in my mind is that Dr John states that 97% of the health workers vaccinated cannot pass on the virus. I understood that those vaccinated can still contract and pass on the virus. But the vaccination greatly reduces the symptoms of the vaccinated person. It appears that I and many others have got ii wrong.

Regards

Re: NCR llockdown
 

P11,
As I understand it. Once fully vaccinated full efficacy applies (depends on the vaccine given). However, some have made the unfortunate error in thinking once they have had the first dose all is Hunky Dory. Not true. Partial efficacy kicks in after about 21 days after the first dose.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Thanks B. Makes sense.

Regards

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A much higher total yesterday of 8,748, which was boosted by a nearly 2,500 backlog of past results. Pointing to problems in the testing system, which have been evident for some time. The latest tests amounted to just over 49k. Tests coming along 43.8k. Positivity slightly up at 12.8%.
Recoveries at a low 3k.

Deaths 187, 122 of them RDs.
Active cases 53,770.
Severe 968, down 42...Critical 753, down 17.
NCR ICU 57%, unchanged.

Regional data (300 and over)

NVR 1,630
C Luzon 1,415
4A 1,322
Cagayan 886
W Visayas 544
Zanboanga 363
Davao Region 357
C Visayas 301

No region below 100. Just 3 regions had less.
NCR led and reported over 300 more than the day before, 18.6% of all cases. Both C Luzon and 4A had a little less than 600 more cases.
Cagayan had nearly 260 more.
Zamboanga 127 more.

Top 6 regions with 70.4% of all cases, up nearly 7%.

NCR cities: only three substantially down, nearly all the rest up.
Both Caloocan and QC had about 120 more.
Marikina reported 45 more yesterday than the previous day.

QC 424, Caloocan 192, Pasig 148, Manila 128 and Makati 113 were the cities with 100 and over.

NCR bubble at 33.9%, up

Provincially all around Manila had more cases.
In the NCR bubble Cavite 473, Bulacan 316, Laguna 308, Rizal 235
Pampanga had more than 100 more at 309 cases.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 128, up
Baguio 45
CDO 132, up
Cebu 45, up 16
Davao 163, down 15, but high
Gen San 79, down
IloIlo 131, up 31
Puerto Princesa 28, up 5
Zamboanga 121, down 4

Bohol 41

Angeles 61, up 10
Tarlac 177, up 118!

Deaths: a large number again reported yesterday. The Philippines case fatality rate at 1.7%, about halfway down the international league table. World average about 2.2%. and a few months ago in 2020 it was close to that here. But we must bear in mind Philippine testing is not at a level commensurate with a national test positivity of well over 10% . So lately its case reporting is probably a few thousand lower than it should be.
Below the latest DOH charts which show deaths by date of occurrence.
Ignore trendlines as they are calculated from date of announcement, often weeks later.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7b0d6f0487.jpg
NCR

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8f5269c82d.jpg
Calabarzon

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b3e7acbda2.jpg
C Luzon



https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2f11afcb63.jpg
C Visayas

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1bdeb6b4ca.jpg
W Visayas

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d7fef6bf7f.jpg
Cagayan

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...969be60c2d.jpg
Davao Region

Two regions, C Luzon and Cagayan Valley, have seen their recent peak in deaths to be much higher than their 2020 peak.
Region 4A also had a somewhat higher 2021 peak.
The NCR and the two Visayan regions had lower peaks.
Too early to talk about a new peak for Davao as its cases have only recently started to rise again.

Reporting delays of about one month most evident in the NCR, 4A and W Visayas.
Delays in C Luzon and C Visayas were much less.
I'm sure the mysterious RDs, which now must amount to at least 5k of the more than 20k official deaths from covid here, are a major reason for these delays.

Cagayan death reporting particularly erratic lately so the trend difficult to see.
That may be common in the more remote regions. I will look at more of them another time.

Vaccination incentives:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...he-same/story/
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

Good move here, they love lotteries.
CNN US interviewed a 21 year old graduate yesterday from Ohio who has just won 1M dollars in a a vaccination lottery there.