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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday new cases again under 3k at 2,249 although 17 labs did not report. Latest testing figure at 33.5k. Better. Also a plus in terms of the future trend is that there was late reporting, especially in the NCR where only 84% of new cases were recent.
So yesterday the NCR had just 549 cases and region 4A 446. The two together contributed an unusually low 51% of total new infections. Region 6 (W Visayas) had 259 recent infections. Total deaths at 87, bringing the widely looked at Philippines case fatality rate up to 1.85% It can only get higher if so many of those seriously ill are not in hospital until their condition becomes irreversible (see my post yesterday). NCR deaths were 28 with late reported from September and before at 25! Region 4A had 15 with 9 of them late reported. Linked to this late reporting is that 34 cases previously classed as recoveries are now deaths! There were 16 deaths from W Visayas. National critical list lower at 1,583. These DOH charts show deaths and a trend line for each of the Visayas regions: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f40bf65c02.jpg Western Visayas https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c9ef1ccfa0.jpg Central Visayas https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5b5bb72e2d.jpg Eastern Visayas Central Visayas with Cebu City and adjoining urban areas has by far the most infections..over 22k and deaths over 1,200. The highest death rate at 6%. but with a well established downward trend. Western Visayas including the cities of Bacolod ,Ilo Ilo and Roxas comes next with nearly 14k infections , over 300 deaths but a low death rate of about 2%. The Eastern Visayas (region 8) has only one large city..Tacloban...and the lowest number of infections at just over 5k to date and 95 deaths. In both Western and Eastern Visayas there are signs of a recent downward trend in deaths. The outbreaks in Central and Eastern Visayas both show well established recent downward trends. But in the Western Visayas a downward trend in new infections is not fully established: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...503f561ea4.jpg W Visayas |
Re: NCR llockdown
Again under, well under 3k cases announced. But 15 labs not reporting and latest testing at 32.7k still too low. Positivity is falling but still well above recommended level of 5% for 2 weeks, when testing can be reduced. It is also possible that testing is avoiding areas of case growth away from Manila and surrounding area.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9bb1e4381d.jpg NCR 650 recent cases, Region 4A 492. There were 2,106 recent cases nationally so the NCR was 31% and 4A 23% of the total. Overall the two regions 54%. Central Luzon was the third highest area yesterday with 203 recent cases. Deaths were at 83 nationally with 39 NCR and 17 in 4A. NCR had 30 late reported and 4A had 8 late reported. W Visayas had 10 deaths. Linked to this there were again many recoveries reclassified as deaths.....41! Adjusting for recoveries (as it was a Sunday there were many...17k+...announced) and deaths the number of active cases fell to under 40k...39,945. from 43,642 last Sunday. A welcome low figure, but the increases in deaths helped. Yesterday 1,558 were critical...25 less than the day before. Some improvement can be seen in new cases growth in the NCR and to a lesser extent in Region 4A: NCR: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5d6ade9fb8.jpg Region 4A: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39a2a38cb8.jpg The Philippines now 18th in the total cases table, and likely to stay there for some time, unless overtaken by Indonesia: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...eea18a9dcd.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
The national total yesterday at 3,564 new cases......with 13 labs not reporting and the individual test number from 2 days ago at a low 26.1k. Could easily be 4k cases if testing had been at the previous day's level of about 32k.
In terms of recent cases NCR was 1,163 and 4A at 786. So Manila plus surrounding area back up at over 60% of total national recent cases. Also Region 6 had 347 cases. Just one day's figures but we should not be too quick to assume the improvement in Manila is established. A computation I have done of seven day moving averages of recent cases since the start of October do not yet show an established downward trend for both the NCR and region 4A. Deaths 11, nationally with 3 from Calabarzon. Critical 1,560. The experts are using a new metric, the "daily attack rate" which looks at recent cases in relation to population to assess potential hotspots. Notice also they are optimistic about Manila....butt wrongly focus on total cases not recent cases, And then there are yesterday's increased figure. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in |
Re: NCR llockdown
After 3.5k on the 12th yesterday's tally only 2k, but with 17 labs not reporting as against 13 the day before. And the most recent testing number of individuals down to 24k. So the number of cases would be lower.
In the NCR 510 recent cases and Region 4A 473. The two areas yesterday contributing only 54% of national recent cases. Other areas with high numbers of recent cases were Central Luzon and W Visayas with 143 and 156.cases, N Mindanao reported 158. While the number of new cases in the NCR and Region 4A is not now rising and the latest NCR daily positivity was at 6%, compared to nationally 7%, it seems reasonable to expect less of a testing effort there. But the testing effort needs to be spread more widely to areas where there is growth in cases and hospital facilities are going to struggle. NCR cities have developed their testing over 7 months to cope with the densely populated area being an epicenter and so it will take time for LGUs in the Provinces to expand their testing effort. These three charts show the case growth in three areas of Mindanao: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a84ca0c2cf.jpg Northern Mindanao https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6b0d1923a3.jpg Zamboanga Peninsular https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4a318998eb.jpg Davao Region Deaths nationally at 40, but 22 of those late reported from before this month. Region 4A 10, with a backlog of 7. NCR 3 and W Visayas 13, the latter late reporting 12 of these! Linked to this the DOH say there are 11 recoveries which are now deaths! Fewer on the critical list compared to the day before, now 1,529 patients. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Just under 2k cases added yesterday with 86% of them recent and 11 labs not reporting. Latest daily test number better....up to 31k.
NCR 564 recent cases, Region 4A 398. Late reporting in 4A contributed 25% of cases and 115 of its cases, 29%, came from September alone. Nationally 207 cases, 11%, were from September. As there were 1,639 recent cases nationwide the NCR plus 4A accounted for 59% of total recent cases. There were 78 deaths nationally with 14 late reported. DOH did not release a case report yesterday where the regional breakdown could be seen. Past recoveries which turned out to be deaths were at 17! The country's case fatality rate has risen to just under 1.9% placing us in 95th place out of 178 countries. World average at 2.9%. Critical were 1,526 patients. Looks like the Philippines will soon be overtaken by Indonesia: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c3f4927570.jpg But the Philippines has surpassed Indonesia in deaths per million recently. One month ago we had 33 per million, but now we are at 59. Indonesia has risen just a little from 43 to 44. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Well over 2k cases yesterday at 2,261 with 86% recent and 14 labs not reporting. Latest testing number again at 31k.
For the NCR 456 recent cases only as 81% only were recent ones. Region 4A has 398. The last 3 seven day moving averages for the NCR recent cases going back: 696,736,761 For Region 4A: 516,459,552 So the latest mini trend for the NCR is a falling one, after a changeable series at the start of the month. No falling trend for Region 4A.. Between 507 and 552 going further back in October. Latest national reproduction number is 1.04. Reflecting the increased national virus spread. Testing may not be able to keep up and this dispute between the Philippine Red Cross and Philhealth will not help. CNN Phil say the Red Cross have done over a quarter of testing here: https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...ealth-OFW.html Deaths at 50 nationwide with 14 from the NCR and 12 from 4A. Late reported were 8 from the NCR and 4 from 4A. Now 1,537 critical. On the international front the second wave in Europe has now affected Germany and as forecast yesterday Indonesia has surpassed the Philippines. With the result we are now at 20th position: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8dfb9d2b9a.jpg Likely to stay there for a while, unless Turkey has a second wave and resumes counting its cases properly. At present it has only a slight upward trend. From July it has not included asymptomatic cases. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Back to Covid!
Yesterday the headline 3k plus new national cases announced...but read the small print and see that only 2,023 (64%) were from the last two weeks! A third were from September. Testing steady at 31k most recently and 15 labs not reporting. NCR recent cases 621 which were 62% of the total there. Region 4A had 72%, recent, 479 cases. So many months old cases in the NCR especially but also elsewhere still being found! Recent cases for other regions were W Visayas at 214, Central Luzon at 146 and Central Visayas at 102. Below see the latest DOH weekly new cases graphs for the NCR and Calabarzon. Look at the bars for recent cases rather than the trend line, which is for total cases. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a446fb6009.jpg NCR https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fad1ca35c2.jpg Region 4A They show a pronounced downward trend for the NCR and a shallow less definite one for Region 4A over previous weeks from August. Looking at recent trends this month only my 7 day recent cases moving averages for October show a similar picture. For the NCR the last three going back are 645,696 and 736. But for Calabarzon going back 496,516 and 459. There were 34 deaths. Half of them reported were from September and back. Unusually none from the NCR and 2 from Region 4A, which were both late reported from July. The CARAGA region in NE Mindanao reported 7. We should expect deaths from Provincial areas to increase as infections have spread nationally over the last few months: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e249dade08.jpg CARAGA region. As usual, some of the deaths were previous recoveries. Yesterday 8! A drop in the critical list of 26 to 1,511. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Nationally 2,286 cases with 14 labs not reporting and latest testing number down at only 23.8k.
NCR had 646 recent cases and Region 4A 603. That was 87 and 88% of their total cases. The two made up 55% of national recent cases, Region 3 (Central Luzon) was next with 267 total cases but 213 recent, so 80% recent only. Taking into account the lower testing recent cases nationally continue to be high and the reductions seen in Manila are being offset by the Provinces. Deaths nationally at 73 with 25 back from September. NCR 32 with 17 back from September. Region 4A with 10 and 3 of those late reported. The DOH chart shows the wide distribution nationally of recent deaths. For the NCR it is relevant to note that again past recoveries are now deaths..14 of them! https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8ab11e25a1.jpg Critical now 9 more at 1,520. Deaths in the NCR now on a long term downward trend: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fbb70d96db.jpg Region 4A showing the start of a downward trend: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5cbd132711.jpg But for Zamboanga Peninsular an upward trend: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7a062da969.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday saw 2,379 newly announced cases but only a very low 1,580 of those were recent. There were 14 labs not reporting. The most recent test number went up about 2k to over 26k.
Regionally NCR had only 52% recent at 444. Region 4A 74% at 317. Region 3 (Central Luzon) 56% at 181. No explanation from the DOH but this must be connected with the dispute between the Philippine Red Cross and Philhealth, as a major group of labs have stopped tests. So from Manila labs many fewer tests were done, But as usual old results, mostly from September but even all the way back back to March, were submitted. So not much can be said due to the lack of the latest tests results. Deaths nationally at 50 with late reported 32 back from September.! There were 31 from the NCR, 7 from Central Luzon, 5 from Calabarzon, 2 from Western Visayas and 5 from Mindanao, Of the total deaths 11 were originally recoveries! Sunday was another mass recovery day and just under 15k announced. So active cases were at 39,808. Last Sunday they were at 39,945...so no improvement with the latest national reproduction number estimate over 1 at 1.04. Region 3 (Central Luzon) has a population of about 14m, 3m or so less than Region 4A and it is more agricultural and less industrial than Calabarzon. But like Calabarzon it is also closely linked with Manila and Bulacan province adjoins the NCR. It is in fourth position for total cases after the NCR, Region 4A and Central Visayas, with over 20k. From these DOH charts you can see new infections rose steadily in July and August, though turning downward recently. Deaths rising steeply in August and September, but started to fall earlier this month. As usual look at the bars not the trend line for both recent cases and deaths. Interesting to note the bump in deaths in March and April given the low infection rate. Maybe imported patients. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...512d8f78ca.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4fcfa9c1c2.jpg Internationally the Philippines is firmly placed in 20th position for total cases. But we have also been slowly advancing up the case fatality table to 93rd place out of 178 countries, so that we are now getting close to a European Country......Denmark: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd104b27fa.jpg It has been announced that although dropped for bikers in general the ridiculous barriers are still needed for motorcycle taxis! https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-helmet/story/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
I always thought that Ukraine is a European country!
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 12923419)
I always thought that Ukraine is a European country!
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Re: NCR llockdown
Well Moscow is in European Russia !
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yes, Russia seems to be considered a European country even though a large part of it is in Asia. Yet Turkey has a small area of land and an old capital city in Europe and it is west of the Urals, ,but it is considered an Asian country.
But not talking technically, which I wasn't, just think what you would have understood when you heard someone in the UK say "we should have good relations etc with Europe" Do you think and would the great majority of people in the UK think they are including Russia and Ukraine? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Probably not, but then the general standard of education of things geographical and historical has diminished somewhat,
Keep safe I have enjoyed our little arm wrestle. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Once Napoleon wanted Russia in his empire. Then the Russian bear in the 19th C, communism and now Putin. That's why I don't think they are viewed as European any more.
All quite confusing. Some years ago the EU invited Turkey to become a member, though their application stalled. Israel got into the European Song Contest! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 12923521)
Israel got into the European Song Contest!
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12923683)
And that other European bastion Australia.
Mon dieu! I just ran over a kangaroo! See? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Now I can post we can look at the last two days DOH data announcements together.
On the 19th 1,932 recent nationally, then yesterday 1,640. For the NCR 555 and 366. 4A had 468 and 264 recent cases. Low figures.....but we shouldn't follow some in the media in getting excited yet as over the two days 31 labs did not report and more important is that recent testing numbers are low: Latest yesterday: 21.2k individuals. October 19: 17.2k Maybe still the effect of the Red Cross dispute or the bad weather? And a policy to reduce? https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e0695c5c6b.jpg The national positivity rate has fallen but is still well above WHO guidelines when testing can be reduced. Slight uptick lately. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...148515cece.jpg On a regional basis positivity in the NCR is now much lower at 6% reflecting a lowered reproduction number at 0.7. But in Region 4A it is at 11%. In the North it mainly varies from 7 to 10%, although in Ilocos it is only at 1%. Visayas from 3 to 10%. The highest figures are now in Mindanao. They range from 8% in Davao City to a high 32% in the Agusan Provinces. Also high are Zamboanga and Cotabato cities at 17%. Deaths nationally were 17 yesterday and 26 the day before The NCR over the two days had 11 with 9 of those very late reported. Mindanao had 16 over the two days with Zamboanga alone reporting 5 yesterday. Yesterday 4 old recoveries were changed to deaths. After the two days the DOH claim 43,443 active cases. Critical now at 1,477. Has fallen a little. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e3805f6ad6.jpg An attempt to identify areas which need special measures by LGUs by taking into account case numbers, positive cases in relation to population and hospital occupancy That some cities eg Makati, Marikina, Pasig, are in this list is surprising as they all have gained a reputation for doing a good job in testing and tracing. I think there must have been some protests as the chart above was later removed from the Rappler article. A good idea but there will be a lot of disputes about how the case numbers are measured, given all the vagaries involved in testing operations by LGUs. For more detail: https://www.rappler.com/nation/exper...ized-lockdowns |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another low day yesterday,1,509 cases and except for the NCR the great majority of them recent. But 13 labs not reporting and the latest testing figure 24.1k. Well up from the day before but still low. Seems that the Philippine Red Cross (PRC) labs are still not back to normal and other labs are having to take up some of their tests. So we can't say much about the trend until the labs responsible for about a quarter of all tests in the country are fully back.
Out of 1,356 positives nationwide the NCR had only 320 recent cases. Late cases were 17% of the total partly because of the PRC issue in their Manila labs. Region 4A 297, Region 6 (W Visayas) 129 and Region 3 (Central Luzon) 112. Notable that of the 18 regions reporting only 3 reported a single digit number of recent cases yesterday. Deaths were at 50 nationwide with 15 of those late reported. Notable that they were reported from 13 Regions. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0048a25068.jpg Now nearly 44k active cases and nearly 1,500 patients critical. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Lower case numbers continue to be reported. Nationwide 1,526 and a high 92% of them recent. Latest number of tests at 27.5k and there has been some upward revisions of recent test numbers so we can be a little more confident of the data. Although the PRC labs are still submitting less results than usual.. labs not submitting at 13.
Recent cases were in the NCR 438, 4A 235, E Visayas 170, Davao 100 and Central Visayas 96. All areas had over 90% recent, except the NCR at 89%. The NCR reported 2 cases from March, 3 April and 1 each from May and June! The total cases now are nearly 364k. Useful to see where we are with the UP projections I posted in early September: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb02b8705f.jpg We are close to the mean thick blue projection and maybe would be there if testing was able to be at higher levels in the regions away from the epicenter in Luzon and there hadn't been the PRC issue. The national reproduction number is estimated at 0.93 but could be nearly one with the margin of error and it is likely that virus spread is faster in many areas away from the epicenter, This gives is the latest top 20 daily numbers by city. Self explanatory. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2bbc46a2c5.jpg Deaths were 38 nationally with only 9 of them recent from the NCR and 4A. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7471bd7bb6.jpg Eleven former recoveries have been reclassified as deaths and we can assume the great majority are in the late reported months columns for the NCR and 4A. Yesterday I omitted to report that 16 recoveries were now deaths. That made me do a quick check back over the last few weeks on this strange data issue. Going back to August I have counted 793 from my reports here alone and I have probably missed some! So probably at least one seventh of total deaths here so far were miss-classified. Yesterday there were 15 deaths late reported from August and September. But 16 recoveries which are now classed as deaths were also reported. So one was wrongly classified this month. You would think this error by whoever in the system would be stopped by now. A few less patients critical...1,477. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Recent cases yesterday at 1,745 nationally with 13 labs not reporting and the latest test number just under 30k. Better, but down a few thousand on the figures reached on a number of days earlier this month. The President's spokesman has promised the PRC will be paid a partial payment soon, but no news as to whether that will be enough for the PRC's testing to fully resume.
The NCR had 428 recent cases, Region 4A 302, W Visayas 209, Central Luzon 165, Davao 120, N. Mindanao 89 and E Visayas 75. There was a 15% backlog in the NCR, with cases going back all the way to March. Region 4A had a 12% backlog. Time to see how my 7 day moving averages of recent cases for the NCR and 4A look so far this month: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ef379d612f.jpg Oct 4 Oct 19 Recent declines in both lines likely to have been exaggerated due to the PRC/Philhealth dispute and a general fall in testing. Steadily improving but they are still the outbreak epicenter, with the latest daily positivity rate at 8.5% for the NCR, compared to 7.8% nationally. Deaths a shocking 132, with 56 late reported going back to April! But less shocking when you read the DOH says that again there were a large number of "recovery deaths"...58! These late miss-reported deaths were from the NCR (24 back to July), 4A (6 back to April), Central Luzon (22 back to April), Central Visayas (2) and W. Visayas (1). After all that recent deaths were still at 56 and mostly from NCR 23,4A 17, C Luzon 11. W Visayas 9, C Visayas 6, Bicol 3. As usual no one in the media saying anything about this mysterious feature of covid data here. The DOH's Oplan Recovery came into effect back in July with the aim to improve the reporting of covid recoveries and it should also have improved the monitoring of those cases deemed to have recovered. But just today there were 53 deaths late reported from July to September that were all or nearly all likely to have been miss-classified recoveries. Looking at the portion of the latest league table of Case Fatality rates near that of the Philippines our latest data puts us above Ukraine and close to Greece: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d05f0d39b3.jpg The latest case fatality rate for the Philippines now at 1.89%. The second column is the Case Recovery Rate. Generally seen as an unreliable covid metric in many countries as definitions of recovery vary so much. The Philippines claims to be following WHO guidelines on recoveries but seeing the numbers having to be re-classified as deaths there must be some doubt about the figures here also. But credit to be given to the DOH as it is at least looking at past reports of recoveries and then changing the data, even if months later. The numbers on the critical list unchanged yesterday. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Despite what the various experts may say in the media the covid picture here is not a good one overall. Yes, NCR data shows a decline but other areas where the test/trace operations may not be as effective are showing increases. Dominated by cases in the NCR and Region 4A this chart shows national recent cases (bars only):
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e78ece136b.jpg National recent cases in the bars. Yesterday just under 2k recent more cases at 1,892. In detail NCR 506,4A 369, CAR(Baguio) 142, W Visayas, N Mindanao and Davao at 130 cases each, Central Luzon at 117. Recent cases generally were around 90% of the total, except for Central Luzon at 85%. Labs not reporting 12 and testing still just below 30k at 28.8k individuals most recently. One example of the Provincial spread is given by the CAR Region, which reported a high number of new infections yesterday: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...45af41ee31.jpg CAR incl Baguio City A few months ago Baguio City was being praised for its effective track/trace operation, but despite that infections are on the rise, as they are in many other areas away from the Manila and surrounding area and most of the Visayas area. Deaths at 19 nationally, with 3 late reported...including 1 all the way back from April in the NCR! NCR 8 deaths and Region 4A 3. Visayas 5 in total. Slight increase in the critical numbers to 1,481. Internationally second waves are prevalent. Especially in Europe and to a lesser extent North America: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c8db872510.jpg WHO European cases added in a week grew by 51%. North American cases by 13%. This nice WHO graphic shows the pandemic picture for deaths and cases by continent up to now. North and South America combined. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...65abf7d0bf.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
the real test will come mid december to mid march the coolest months of the year. This bug seems to thrive in the cooler months
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by mikemike
(Post 12925923)
the real test will come mid december to mid march the coolest months of the year. This bug seems to thrive in the cooler months
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Re: NCR llockdown
Just over 2k recent cases yesterday with the great majority recent in all regions except in 4A, where 88% were recent. Labs not reporting at 16 and the latest testing number again under 30k at 27k.
For the regions NCR with 537 recent cases, 4A 397, Central Luzon 165, W Visayas 153, CAR 110, N Mindanao 103, Davao 89 and Bicol 67. Mindanao had about 400 cases in total. Deaths nationally at 43 with late reported 14. Linked to another finding of "recovery deaths"...the DOH say there were 11, one going back to May. Nearly all in the NCR and 4A. Recent deaths were 7 in NCR, 5 in 4A, 4 in CAR, 2 in Central Luzon. Total of 7 recent deaths in Mindanao. A slight decrease in critical patients at 1,471. Yesterday was again the DOH's recovery day. 15k were announced. The number of active cases they say is now at 35k, a welcome drop of nearly 5k over a week ago...as long as the those recoveries really have recovered! Looking again at Indonesia we see the country adding 4k cases to their total over the last week, about double the daily increase here, and is at 5th position in Asia. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1ed5cb7dac.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9ec1ab24a2.jpg The testing level is far too low there. The Philippines is testing about 31k per million while Indonesia has tested only about 16k per million. It's latest average national positivity is reported at 14%, whereas here it is under 10%. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...ndard-for-new- normal. |
Re: NCR llockdown
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cc72159672.jpg
Every so often the DOH springs a surprise. The daily 4pm data is now coming out (although I couldn't find the original source this morning!) in the form of the above colourful infographic in the local language. It now does not give some useful regional detail on cases and deaths, number of labs not submitting, "recovery deaths". Although these last two items were reported by ABS-CBN and GMA somehow. For more information you are asked to go to the DOH website. They used to put out much more detailed information overnight but the site has been down since Sunday. We await to see what it will now show. Yes, local people can view this on their phones but what they will view is often misleading. People at ABS-CBN and GMA can provide a better interpretation, but only if they can see the details. A "helpful detail" is reported here| https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ovinces/story/ Despite hopeful statements the PRC/Philhealth dispute has not been resolved, no money paid yesterday. The President now has to OK it. Looks to me that will not be soon...if ever. Politicians saying the whole deal was illegal in the first place. That's the typical development here. An issue comes up and then it is said the entity or deal was illegally set up in the first place. As the article says cases in the Manila area recently have been under-recorded. I thought it would only be by a few percent as the DOH said they were making other arrangements but the experts at Octa reckon it is a much greater loss. Track and trace badly affected in the NCR making reproduction estimates more unreliable. All I can report now is: Yesterday 1,607 total cases from 16 labs not reporting. Recent 95%, Latest test numbers at a very low 16k...likely affected both by typhoon Quinta and the PRC dispute. Most cases were from Davao (90), then Cavite, Rizal, Negros and Quezon Province. The numbers are shown in the infographic. Numbers from Manila and 4A lower due to the weather. The numbers from other areas also in the Visayas and Bicol must have also been affected downwards. Deaths total 62, with 19 "recovery deaths". So likely about 43 recent deaths yesterday. A few more on the critical list....1,490. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Again only a brief report on todays figures as the DOH website still down and all we get is the not very informative DOH infographic. But below I can now give more information on the day before yesterdays announcements.
Yesterday an extra 1,523 cases announced, a very high percentage (97) recent. 15 labs did not submit. Latest test number up at 20k. Because of Quinta and the PRC/Philhealth dispute, where promises are now being made about future test resumption following some payment, we should assume these figures, especially those in Manila and Region 4A are showing numbers much lower than they should be. The GCQ in Manila was extended to Nov 30. Obviously the figures, especially from the past 2 weeks, were not very useful. So they just said carry on with GCQ. Adjustments are likely to be made anyway for the NCR area and in the cities individually , which will likely end up make these quarantine definitions redundant. Deaths 14 with 1,500 on critical list. More detail on yesterday's announcement: Out of the 1,607 total cases NCR 396, 4A 347, W Visayas 222, Central Luzon 153, Davao 106 with the rest of Mindanao giving nearly 200 more. Yesterday 95% of cases were recent ,which if applied to the NCR and 4A numbers gives NCR 376 and 4A 330 estimated recent cases. Probably should be less, given the tendency of these areas to late report, but a good enough estimate for now. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6e0ac97609.jpg The octa research group has published a new list of places where the growth of infecttions and hospital utilisation is of great concern:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...z?ocid=BingHPC A reason for the delay is given, but I am wondering if it is really because when the unnamed Czar meets the President and he doesn't like the person then he can change the appointment without the public knowing? You would think getting a vaccine is an urgent matter! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday the DOH announced just over 2k extra cases nationwide with 1,673 recent. Only 82% recent. They have stopped giving all the details on late reporting, but I suspect the high number is this is because of the disruption caused to testing in the NCR and Region 4A by the PRC/Philhealth dispute. Latest individual tests reported are up to 29.5K so it looks like PRC testing is getting back to normal.
Here are the latest charts showing NCR and Region 4A trends (look at the bars for recent cases). Latest data bars much too low given the lower testing due to the PRC dispute and Quinta: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f3c669a2db.jpg NCR https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...603c9d9825.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...07452d5772.jpg Region 4A https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c531ef951b.jpg Deaths at 61 nationally, with 17 of them being the mysterious late reported "recovery deaths". The Philippines surpassing another European country, Portugal. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d262142f2a.jpg Now critical down to 1,480. This graphic from John Hopkins for selected countries shows case fatality rates either declining or level, but notice the gentle rise for The Philippines: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6eae653067.jpg Last, regional total case figures from October 27. (Due to recent changes in DOH data output these details now come out later). NCR 358, 4A 268, W Visayas 237 (mostly from Negros Occ), CAR (Cordillera Admin Region....Benguet) 110, Davao 93, Central Luzon 87 and just over 200 more from Mindanao. Making a rough adjustment to get recent cases there were about 347 from the NCR and 260 from Region 4A announced on October 27. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,761 more cases nationally with 92% recent. Labs not reporting 9. DOH website down again so can't check the latest testing numbers.
So nationally another 1,613 recent cases added. GMA news say that there were 431 cases from the NCR and 322 from 4A. Should be ale to report the other numbers tomorrow. The DOH only give cases by top 5 province or city on their new slimmed down infographic. As the NCR is not a province or city it doesn't feature. But its constituent cities often do. So yesterday QC and Caloocan City featured. But the NCR is treated as a province with all its cities getting the same quarantine classification. So the daily numbers for Manila have been made difficult to get and unless given out at a news conference or in another way to a journalist ( as yesterday to only GMA) only emerge a day later through research of DOH data. Deaths were 33 nationally. Again, only according to GMA, 3 were from September, 3 August and 1 July. So 26 were recent. Critical patients just two fewer than the day before at 1,478. The regional case numbers for October 28 included: NCR 559, 4A 331, W Visayas 199, Central Luzon 178, CAR (mostly Benguet) 130, N Mindanao 100, Davao 91......the rest of Mindanao over 150 and the rest of the Visayas 155. "The Philippines now out of the top 20 international case table". This was the headline in a news item on GMA TV. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...9-cases/story/ They say the John Hopkins number for Ukraine is 381,664 but the latest figure there is only 374,023. And they don't have a world table! See at : https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/ The figures below come from Worldmeter's table. They are generally seen as a good data source on covid. For the Ukraine their figure is are even lower. Possibly John Hopkins are adding cases for a region of the country occupied by Russian separatists? Data differences, an error or someone wants to make things here look better than they are? Although it does look that both Ukraine, Turkey and Belgium may all overtake us soon given their recent case numbers, as long as ours do not start to accelerate. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f0e72ccefd.jpg For the whole table: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases announced yesterday breached 2k, but recent cases were only 1,442. So late reported cases were a high 28% of the total. Also 13 labs did not report. Latest testing number 28.6k. Fuller report tomorrow.
Deaths were 38 nationwide with 23 of them "recovery deaths" going back to May ! GMA reports that the majority of deaths were from the NCR and W Visayas. Slightly more were critical at 1,486 patients. The regional picture of total newly announced cases on October 29: NCR 495, 4A 335, Central Luzon 182, W Visayas 140, E Visayas 131, Davao 101. The rest of MIndanao a little less than 200. A rough estimate of recent cases for NCR 455 and 4A 308. The picture by city/municipality: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...79c0005a83.jpg The latest international table showing the large daily case increases by the Ukraine and Belgium: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...536420863c.jpg Survey results about opinions on DOH data. The majority do not believe it. Despite that they still give the government high marks for its handling of the pandemic here! More see cases as over than under reported, while an equal percentage feel deaths are under/over reported. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...y-right/story/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
With the constant dribble of recovery deaths how can we believe any of these figures.
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Re: NCR llockdown
We can't, as the trends in daily cases shows an inconsistent pattern. If you take the reporting from say India and Russia there is a very clear trend in the data.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12928369)
With the constant dribble of recovery deaths how can we believe any of these figures.
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 12928380)
We can't, as the trends in daily cases shows an inconsistent pattern. If you take the reporting from say India and Russia there is a very clear trend in the data.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1a916160aa.jpg Compare with Russia: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e625fdf0df.jpg ...and to India, to a lesser extent: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6ea0fe8895.jpg ....... neighbouring Indonesia shows an amount of variability but Philippines still more variable: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7c87e3f756.jpg Russia has a legacy from the Communist era of a national health service so has probably kept the bureaucracy from that intact, even though much healthcare has gone private. India has, like the Philippines, a health service for the poor and private healthcare for the better off. But maybe it also has a legacy of good bureaucracy at the state level left from the British era? Indonesia also has a mixed public/private health system but still case reporting there looks more consistent than here.. All I can think of is that the Philippines mixed legacies of Spanish and American colonization has left it with a poor system of government with a chaotic element and one of the features is poor statistics. Still, you can see trends in Philippine data using moving averages. A seven day average smooths out the clear weekly seasonality. Using that on the latest NCR data shows a clear downward trend, although probably exaggerated in October by the Red Cross dispute, the weather and a general decline in testing since mid September. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f12a959fe5.jpg NCR daily recent cases. Trend is for total cases. Better if the DOH showed the trend for recent cases instead. In fact, one of the reasons for the high daily variability in NCR daily data is the habit of cities here to find old cases from months ago! Yes, Gazza, the recovery deaths getting close to 1k by now is a really serious issue and it does make you doubt all other DOH statistics even more on top of all the other doubts we have about them. A few months back one lawmaker here called for an enquiry into DOH statistics but that got nowhere in the Senate given the pandemic and the focus on Philhealth corruption. The media and press here can't ask too many questions at virtual DOH conferences. They're a bit supine now anyway. So the DOH can get away with "dribbling" these recovery deaths out at the end of a list of "data cleaning" or "data validation" announcements. All you can hope here is that someone is regularly looking at the DOH data and making some sensible adjustments to it before it goes before busy politicians and generals. But judging from some of their public statements I am not confident that always happens. |
Re: NCR llockdown
On the last day of October 1,803 new infections reported....but only 82% or 1,479 were recent. Recently many old cases being found.
Twelve labs didn't report and the latest testing level stable at 28k individuals. Will give more details tomorrow. There were 36 deaths and no change in the number reported critical from the day before. The regional total cases breakdown for October 30: NCR 549, 4A 438, W Visayas 177, Central Luzon 158, CAR 98....Mindanao 319 in total. E Visayas 74, Central Visayas 56, Bicol 66. In the NCR QC, Manila, Makati and Pasig were the top 4 cities, In 4A Batangas and Cavite were the top two provinces. Adjusting NCR figures for recent cases gives 395. Recent cases for 4A estimated at 315. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d11078e104.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday well over two thousand cases announced, but only 1,548 were recent. That's a very low 65%. Fifteen labs did not report.
Latest testing a bit down at 26.1k. No explanation as to why so many cases were late reported. I can only guess it might be a hangover from the testing disruption 2 weeks ago in Manila. Davao and Quezon Cities top two new cases. Fuller details tomorrow. There were 17 deaths. As it was a Sunday there were a large number of recoveries...17.7k. As a result total Active cases were an improvement at 27,115. A week ago they were at 35k. Just over 5% (1,464) of Active cases were in a critical condition Twenty two less than yesterday. More details on Saturday's cases: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ffd2ed7902.jpghttps://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f4843c082f.jpg Adjusting for late reports NCR estimated at about 393, 4A at 271. Looking at Provinces: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4ad4d252ad.jpg For the NCR: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...386b6c564a.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...adeaaf35b7.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Reported yesterday, November 2, another 2,298 cases...but only 1,057 (46%) were recent. The percentage of recent cases is normally around 80 to 90% with a backlog going back months but this large additional backlog must come from cases older than 2 weeks from last month, due to the disruption in testing in and around Manila at that time.
Latest testing effort at 20.6k and 14 labs not reporting. There were only 17.5k results announced yesterday. Hotspots were Benguet (mining areas) and Davao City. Fuller report tomorrow. Deaths 32, with 13 more "recovery deaths"! Number critical unchanged. The situation on November 1: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4c7ef6eb61.jpg Plus another 137 from the rest of Mindanao. For the NCR: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7ecb431ae8.jpg A rough estimate for cases from the last 14 days in the NCR is 276 and for 4A 202. Much lower due to a large number of delayed results from October. Below see two line graphs for the NCR and 4A of only recent cases for the month of October. Smoothed by applying a 7 day moving average. Results for the second half of October were definitely lower due to the disruption to testing at that time, Still they both show steady falls....especially for the NCR. However, the DOH classes the NCR as Medium Risk and in Region 4A Batangas and Rizal are areas where downward trends are not yet firmly established. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...825b3dc1b3.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...86b3645164.jpg The growth in cases is in areas away from the NCR and its surrounding area. Two charts showing the rise in cases in Pampanga and Davao City: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...803a121600.jpg Pampanga https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c8a30eb908.jpg Davao City Poland suffers a surge in new cases and pushes the Philippines down to 23rd place: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...508cac556e.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,772 new cases reported, but only 1,016 recent (57%). They were from only 14k samples. Better than yesterday but still a backlog being processed from mid October. Also more labs, 18, not reporting. The latest testing shows only 15.1k individuals , so no improvement in sight.
Pampanga showing the largest number of Provincial positives. More detail tomorrow. There were 49 deaths and 13 of these were "recovery deaths". Critical list: 1,482. A few more than the day before. The details from November 2: Due to backlog only about 290 of NCR cases are recent ie started in last 14 days. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e65e2a06b7.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e5be7c63ba.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7bd875b52c.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...23256548b7.jpg Due to backlog only about 200 of Calabarzon cases are recent. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...905957d2f3.jpg Outbreak in Benguet at mining sites. Pampanga and Bulacan make up about half the population of Central Luzon. Which has nearly the same population as the NCR. So it is good to see that the recent trend in Pampanga is not going up and Bulacan's is falling: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...90044ee4e2.jpg Pampanga https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4e66398b50.jpg Bulacan Case surges in European countries resulting in the Philippines moving down the table. Seems likely that the Netherlands and Czech Republic will overtake us soon. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d97cfa5a38.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
A very low result count yesterday at only 987 positives. But this was out of only 16.2k tests conducted. And the latest testing effort is reported at only 17.4k individuals. Reflected by 12 labs not reporting. The DOH said in its brief report the low testing was due to Rolly and to expect an increase in positive results over the next few days.
Davao City top outside NCR. More details tomorrow. Until the effects of testing problems work their way through, and assuming no more typhoons in large population areas, we cannot say much about where the epidemic is going here. Deaths nationally at 49. Recovery deaths again....and again .at 13. Critical at 1,489, just 7 more than the day before. More details from November 3: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...520426c41c.jpg Top 8 Regions Plus another 176 cases from Mindanao. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...56b4232aa0.jpg Top 9 Manila cities https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f150aa5e27.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c53b5e9509.jpg The majority outside the NCR. |
Re: NCR llockdown
For November 5 over 1.5k recent new cases reported. They made up 82% of those tested. So 18% were a backlog, which is nearly back to normal. Ten labs did not report. The latest total for daily individual tests was only 17.4k.
The City of Manila contributed a high 253 cases. More details tomorrow. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f1dfb84fc0.jpg Fall off in testing since September. Deaths at 42. Recovery deaths another 14! Critical list down to 1,442. The regional figures for November 4. Numbers reduced due to the disruption of testing caused by Typhoon Rolly: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...97d5ac74bb.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ecd0e193c1.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4103a0919b.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9408c066b3.jpg Davao City has been the top city on a number of days recently. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Need a covid test for some reason other than you have been identified by a health team from the LGU or have been admitted to hospital with symptoms? It may not be easy judging from our recent experience in Paranaque. We want to move back to a subdivision in Cavite and they require recent negative PCR tests. Our Barangay referred us to the local government hospital doing free tests for a number of barangays in the area. They gave us two cell numbers to phone to arrange appointments. Gave up with them after a day as they were always engaged.
A number of hospitals and clinics locally not offering tests but eventually found a local hospital charging P3,500 each. Two fairly long online forms to fill in for each test and email back. Payment to be made through an "alternative payment channel", which listed more agents than were actually operating when you enquired. They promise emailed certificates in 3 days. So we have to print them out to show. Have seen what they look like as they ask you to put your names on a blank one of them.. The hospital name etc in colour but obviously no security features and it occurs to me they could be tampered with on a computer to change a result or even used without having had a test at all, and so may be questioned. Though hopefully anyone suspicious can make a phone call to confirm authenticity. We will only find out how ours are viewed when we show them to subdivision staff. Seems that many of their tests are emailed back to doctors and hospitals and so would be accepted without question. But for people in a similar situation to ours it might be more questionable. Anyway, some computer skills and familiarity required, which many people will not have themselves, at least. Also, the advertising leaflet for these tests also states you need to be referred by a doctor. You only find out they will do them without that if you phone up. |
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