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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,906 new cases, 5 labs not reporting. Positives 1,115 out of 18k tested. So a backlog of nearly 800 went through. Positivity at 6.4% Tests in preparation at a higher 33.6k.
Top locations: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f018274134.jpg Deaths 8. Critical unchanged at 1,366. Another mass recovery day with 8.6k, Active 20.087, down 213 on a week ago. Detail on January 9 cases: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6925ddf8b3.jpg Plus other Mindanao 35 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...50d41af827.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...da7d37bbeb.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3920429b3b.jpg Top 14 cities: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ded805e579.jpg Top 7 regions were all in 3 figures, accounting for more than 77% of cases. Ten of the 17 NCR cities were in the top 20 The last week: Cases at 8,876, up from 7,917 the previous week. Deaths at 140, down from 189 Reproduction estimate: 0.95 from Jan 5. The last two weeks greatly affected by low and erratic testing. The Philippines looking better internationally due to the surging European case numbers. But more locally the country has 4,420 cases per million. Indonesia with over 70% more cases is at 3,011. Japan at 2,163. On deaths the Philippines at 85, Indonesia 88 and Japan 32. Some interesting charts from Public Health England were recently on the BBC news site: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2dd787cc06.jpg This one showing how age groups have been affected in the UK lately in that they were admitted to hospital. All age groups affected about equally, though above 44's a little more recently.. Comparing with the Philippines since the pandemic here began 62% of cases have been in the 15-44 age bracket, 45-74 at 27.5%. Under 14 less than 1%. 75 and over at less than 10%. Our hospital cases are likely dominated by much younger patients but our case fatality rate is the same as Sweden's. at 1.93%. The UK is at 2.7%. World average around 2,2%. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A ratcheting up announced yesterday to 2,052 cases with most of them a backlog. Highest since Dec 18. Three labs not submitting, but how many still closed or not operating fully? There were 18.7k tests done at a positivity of 4.6%. Tests on the way down to 21.5k.
Latest R value 1.07. Top 5: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f91ea6a61c.jpg Davao City continues to surge. But the media scared to talk about it because of who is in charge. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4aad65de2d.jpg Deaths at 11 Critical 1,371, up 5. Detail from January 10: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...16fc4b2854.jpg Plus other Mindanao 70. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c666687468.jpg Paranaque high. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1dd19b921c.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...dd9f9ba798.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a31329364e.jpg NCR with 26% of cases, 11 of its cities in top 20. Benguet top province, the only one over 100. Xmas and maybe some effect of cooler weather there? Temperatures in Baguio going down to 10 -12C at night and affected by wind chill may increase indoor gathering. Cebu province showing an increase since late December after a long and steady decline: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...aa7454785e.jpg A good set of graphics from the BBC on the world situation: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,524 cases with 6 labs not reporting. Positive rate from only 19.1k tests a higher 6.9. Backlog of over 200. Tests in process only 21.5k.
Top 5 locations: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0aa8128f4b.jpg QC and DC top 2 yesterday and the day before. Cebu City first time appearance. Deaths at a very high 139, But nobody online is remarking that of those 78 were RDs. which could have occurred months ago. Taking them out still leaves a high 61, probably delayed reports from the Xmas period. Critical down 30 at 1,341. More detail on Jan 11 cases: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f002b96c29.jpg Plus other Mindanao 53. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b160ade1aa.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7206b5ff28.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f8be474874.jpg NCR nearly a quarter of cases. Eleven NCR cities in top 20. Overall it looks like the talked about Xmas holiday increase is now showing. Regions away from NCR and Calabarzon also involved, in the North, the Visayas and Mindanao. Latest Reproduction number at 1.22 nationally. Interestingly a bit less at 1.11 for the NCR. Positivity has been generally on the rise. In the NCR Makati is showing the most increase in new cases per head of pop. Marikina also showing an alarming increase in new cases and positivity at 11%. Benguet, Leyte and Davao del Norte positivity over 10%. Pampanga, Cebu and Zamboanga lower positivity but rising cases at very concerning rates. Hospital occupancy figures are of greatest concern in Davao del Norte (70%) and Sur, but also in Benguet and Rizal to a lesser extent. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I've been watching this guy regularly, mainly UK based but also a good world perspective.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Gazza, I get playback error. Can you give his name? Presumably its his latest?
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Re: NCR llockdown
Just press the subscribe button by pointing at the picture top left of the video.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Thanks B. He's very informative, especially about Ireland. You following his handwashing technique?
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Re: NCR llockdown
I haven't had the chance to watch. Memsahib was on night duty at the hospital so I've been busy cooking lunch et cetera.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Gazza, thank you for providing the You Tube link. The information almost as good as Raffin's daily output LOL.
I was particularly interested in the comments about immunity as I contracted C-19 last August. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Today 1,453 new cases, 4 labs not reporting. There were 27.6k individuals tested and a positivity of 5.5%. Tests in process 25.2k. With numbers expected to rise it would be useful to see more testing, but the wide spread of cases nationally makes that difficult.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2cbc493855.jpg Deaths at 146. Like yesterday a high number due to late reporting. Some of it very late. From November and earlier 93 deaths. RDs announced were 44, they were almost certainly part of the 93. Details from January 12: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2e629723ca.jpg Plus Bicol 19, other Mindanao 19 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7866fb9e26.jpg Marikina has fallen last few days, now only 8 cases. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9995d24084.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...142ba1a933.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb83b6d511.jpg Nearly 26% of cases from NCR with 9 out of 17 cities in top 20. Note: Cebu City in 4th place of top cities and Cebu province in 3rd place in top provinces. CAR in 4th position of regions and Baguio City 5th in cities. The Philippines buying 25m doses of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, first batch arriving next month. Brazil testing reduced its effectiveness from 78% mild/severe down to 50,4%, but only when some data relating to very mild/no symptoms cases was mistakenly not included. Its effectiveness with moderate to severe cases at 100%. The general or czar in charge says it is "quite cheap". But Filipinos are not convinced, especially when they get the impression that they will have no choice but to accept the Chinese vaccine rather than US or European ones. In their minds they will think of all the cheap Chinese products on sale here and see their vaccines as more of the same. Plus the idea that Chinese firms are known for bribery. On China again the Philippines has now banned foreign arrivals from China because of the "UK" variant....for only two days! Having had the information on the UK variant case there since January 1. Thirty three countries arrivals now banned due to the variant. Policy to be reviewed on January 15 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1bcd0eabd5.jpg Philippines now in 32nd place. Portugal has overtaken and is having a surge...adding 5 to 7k cases in each of the last 3 days. Switzerland may well follow in a few days time. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Here we go again.And there was me thinking a brazilian was something only the wife/gf had to worry about.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?q=https...v2eMQgj03U-930 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,912 new cases bringing the 7 day average to 1,750 a day. Seven labs not operating. Positivity from 23k tests was at 5.8% Tests in progress 31.8k.
Locations: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a1bf4c075d.jpg Two Mindanao entries. Dagupan City for the first time. Davao surge continuing. Deaths at 40 with 14 of them RDs. Case fatality rate up to 1.97%. 1,332 critical, drop of 9 from 2 days ago. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a98e6d500e.jpg Other Mindanao 63 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1bb6f55089.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...36c6542880.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ccb9b0db5d.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c2e4265429.jpg NCR 23% of cases, 10 in top 20. Cebu top province and the city 4th, https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...21c98b36cc.jpg Cebu City uptick. Covid variant news: Philippines genome work has found one in QC. So two people here have almost certainly had it, although they are always saying the first case could have caught it in HK. We await Phil reaction on the Brazilian variant and what they will do on all the travel bans due to the "UK" variant, which expire today. UAE likely to be added soon as a Pinoy who travelled there had the UK variant. The UK banning arrivals from the whole of S America plus Portugal seems quite extreme, but then the UK situation is very bad. Also Portugal having a surge of its own. If other countries join in international travel from an entire continent will be greatly affected. All those footballers who travel back and forth from Europe, for instance! On vaccines here the President's spokesman now hinting he might take a vaccine early. The earliest vaccine would be Chinese, Criticism of the efficacy and commercial terms of the Chinese Sinovac deal have got to him as he said this: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/14/...m-china-russia His world views, favoring autocratic regimes, anti US, Europe etc clearly showing. Well known before, though in this case they will affect the health of people here. Help from Russia and China based on friendship? |
Re: NCR llockdown
The latest update from Dr John thoroughly explaining the results of the SIREN UK study on immunity for those with a previous covid infection. It suggests a likely low chance of reinfection and a very low chance of a severe re-infection. Encouraging too for the one shot vaccine policy. Not peer reviewed yet though. Tried to find out if he is a medical doctor or if he has a doctorate, probably in Nursing Studies, but can't.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Heisa retired nurse teacher with a PhD. He has taught internationally and expertise is A & E
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday over 2k cases announced, just one lab not reporting. Tests 29k and a positivity of 5.1%. Higher tests at 32.4k on the way.
Top locations: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7597c95042.jpg Significant only one NCR city in top 5. Deaths 137, with 63 RDs. Obviously the continual miss classification of deaths cannot be fixed. Been going on now for over 6 months. Case fatality rate up at 1.99%. Critical 1,325, down 7. Detail on January 14: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5ba93f788a.jpg Other Mindanao 60 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...10d2a8ed55.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...248d886c1f.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...94ca5cfccc.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d1aa5936ed.jpg NCR 24% of cases, QC nearly a quarter of NCR cases. Eleven NCR cities in top 20. Davao cases continue to surge. The DOH under secretary has hinted, without proof, that poor compliance in Davao City has been the main cause. Of course she cannot criticize the city mayor!! It is a low density city covering a large area and maybe that has affected the ability of the authorities to maintain protocols somewhat ? Medical facilities there now classed as being "at moderate risk". The Phil UK variant travel bans have been extended to the end of the month on the 32 countries. USA and 14 European countries. Even to China, though reluctantly. UAE and Hungary now added. As the reports of the variant are bound to increase over time are we looking at the prospect of the country accepting no foreigners from first world countries at all in a few months time? With the effect on tourism, airlines and the economy. Is the plan to relax the bans after vaccinations in those countries become widespread and people have certificates? That could be a long time in the future. Pressure will soon mount on the government to find a way out of this. Cases are on the rise and more of them are provincial, where some high positivity rates are now showing, The NCR percentage daily is mostly in the lower part of the 20-30% range. Whereas a few months ago it was usually in the upper part or even over 30%. The government may not be so worried about that as it can bring in more restrictions in Provincial areas without harming the economy so much. That's as long as the increases are moderate in the epicenter. I would guess to 2-3k a day level. However, if cases start to increase to much higher levels restrictions will have to be re-imposed in the NCR and surrounding regions. The type of lockdown that was imposed earlier last year will be avoided as much as possible, so bringing back non work etc movement restrictions seems to be more likely. Unfortunately deaths and serious illness will rise at a faster rate due to the poorer medical facilities away from NCR and surrounding areas and the worst aspect of the Phil pandemic will get even worse. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another tally of just over 2k and with 5 labs not reporting. We don't hear the DOH trumpeting how many labs are operating these days. Have some closed down?
Positivity at 5.9%. Almost 1k backlog went through. Tests in progress 33.3k. Top places: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f8334279bb.jpg Mountain Province newcomer. Deaths 8 with 1 RD. Critical 1,319, down 6...has been falling recently. How much due to patients improving and how much to increased deaths? More detail for January 15: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8bea5fbf8a.jpg Note that 9 regions and nearly 10 with over 100. Other Mindanao 87. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...96d1cfe4b3.jpg NCR contributing only 19% of cases. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca4c92bf33.jpg First time Pangasinan is the top province Also note the absence of Region 4A provinces. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...31ac3fa163.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5319a27b9c.jpg Seven NCR cities middle of table to near the top. Plus many other urban areas nationwide. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d692018352.jpg Sharp increase after New Yea for Pangasinan. Reproduction number estimates latest (Jan 11) are 1.22 nationally, 1.21 NCR....both subject to 0,02 variation at 95% confidence. The BBC put out a useful chart on R: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...048b83be71.jpg If sustained for only a month an R value of 1.1 can increase cases 9 fold. Whereas one of 0,9 by only 5 times. The oft quoted target of 1.0 by 7 times. Although a sustained 1.0 is deemed by epidemiologists to eventually end an epidemic. Over a two month period one could even see 25 times more cases with an R of 1.1. So R values of around 1.2 are worryingly large. How good are R estimates here? The OCTA group of experts don't show their workings. However one of the factors they should take into account is contact tracing. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/16/...ontact-tracers Hopefully this report will translate for you. The picture it gives to me is not a good one a few months after a lot of fanfare when the DOH said they were hiring 30k contact tracers. Then came the appointment of a Czar. for contact tracing. Since then not much announced. Many, perhaps most, then laid off. So re-hiring 15k now as the DOH is seeing cases rise. But those offices have to be started up again. No doubt many individual cities have their own more stable operations, but the DOH effort looks very unsatisfactory. Lack of money is mentioned more than once by the DOH under secretary in the above report. Something coming through also in all the talk about the government's vaccine plans here. Apart from the political aspects in decision making I mentioned yesterday, the need for early and cheap vaccines here to control the outbreak is clear if case rise continues and is more nationwide, Another strict lockdown is not an option. These vaccines happen to be from China and maybe Russia. "SM bonus" vaccines, if you like. With a few exceptions I tend to avoid buying those products! There is an unwillingness here to change budget priorities. These were set at the start of the pandemic when it was expected to last months, rather than years. Funds could be diverted from Infrastructure Build3, or military areas....but won't be. The same can be said for the pandemic relief budget.. Looking in E Asia Japan seeing a large 3rd wave, with recent new case numbers on a par with the Philippines. Tokyo more than 2,000: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bfe4260045.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Announced January 17 1,895 cases, a backlog of test results going through of over 700. Five labs did not report.
Positives at 5.3% from 20.9k tests. Tests on the way at 27k. Official Philippines infection tally now over 500,000. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cc94f68fc4.jpg Top 5 locations: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c4117536be.jpg Deaths 11. Critical 1,309, another fall, down 10. Active cases now 2.5% more on last week ........up to 24,691 after fewer than usual Sunday Mass Recoveries announced by the DOH. Detail of locations for January 16 cases: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8c7416e245.jpg Other Mindanao 34 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...45a33fbe12.jpg Plus Valenzuala 24, Pasay 23 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2ff93ef9da.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bae5e4a371.jpg Another day with many regions reporting over 100 new cases. Six regions on Jan 16, with unusually high numbers from the CAR. Benguet was the top CAR province, Baguio second city. CAR's Mountain province and Kalinga province were also un the top 10. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1aedb7ddb8.jpg The CAR numbers falling before Xmas, but rising sharply in the New Year. Probably due to festive gatherings and maybe that January is the coldest month. NCR at 22% of total cases, in line with recent percentages in the low 20s. 10 of its cities were in the top 20. The NCR Reproductive number mean estimate is now at 1.12, well below the national estimate of 1.22. Even though QC and some other NCR cities are showing a significant uptick after Xmas: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a3ff5651f4.jpg QC new cases. Changes on the week: New cases up at 12,980 from 8,876 last week. 1,844 per day from 1,268 per day average. Infections picked up over the holidays beginning to show in the numbers. Deaths at 490 from 140, although the total inflated by nearly 200 RDs announced from an ongoing validation program. Most of those deaths occurred many weeks ago. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another total over 2k yesterday, 4 labs not reporting. Tests of 891 positives were 19.2k giving positivity of 4.6%. :Large backlog was processed. Tests in process number not available.
Top locations: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...192f45aec3.jpg Cagayan, Leyte new entrants here. Deaths 14. Notable that only 2 recoveries were announced. Critical 1,315. Up 6. Detailed locations from January 17: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...97da6ce17a.jpg Illocos 27,BARMM 15 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c149e0bfd7.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b1dd4abee5.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a985d04fbe.jpg NCR 26% of total and 12 of its cities in the top 20. Along with 4A, Central Luzon, CAR, Davao, Central and E. Visayas, these 7 regions made up 77% of total cases. The National picture and 3 Major Cities. Ignore trend lines. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...17f1f3a728.jpg Nationally... https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...250473c6fa.jpg NCR https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...030f639bf0.jpg Davao City https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6d0183cdad.jpg Cebu City https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...48b25b52ec.jpg Falling case numbers and better treatment means deaths have been falling since August. But ignore the trendlines especially here again as there are so many late reported. Then note the number has not been falling so smoothly recently as serious cases increase away from the epicenter of Manila and its surrounding area with its better hospital facilities. Unfortunately numbers are likely to plateau in the next few weeks due to the recent case increase. |
Re: NCR llockdown
It's long but in the first 30 minutes Dr John interviews David Davis MP on the use of Vitamin D as an anti covid treatment. The results of a Spanish trial were very encouraging.
Exposure to UV rays is an important way to keep up one's vitamin D. You would think the Philippines would be Ok for that but a study here found most people deficient. Except for those engaged in manual work outside the aim of people here is to avoid exposure. , |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yes watched Dr John yesterday evening, have become a regular viewer. Even though there is still low levels of Vitamin D in the Philippines I would think they are still on average higher than in the northern latitude countries. Maybe why the Philippines seems to be doing relatively better. I remember vitamin D being touted as a benifit early on in the pandemic. My concern is that if the Philippines doesn't sort itself out the local pool of virus could mutate into something more serious as is happening elsewhere in the world, their are hints that the UK variant may have originated in Italy. The problem with a Philippines variant would be that it could be very difficult to contain because as soon as it gets into another country it would go TNT.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a lower 1,357 case count. Four labs did not report. A backlog of over 400 results added to 941 gave a positivity of 5.7%. Tests in progress only 16.4k.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c5bbeebd7c.jpg Positivity on the increase since early December. Top 5 locations: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7f772a13bf.jpg Davao City continuing to surge. Deaths 69 with most being RDs, 56 of them. Critical 1,309. Down 6. Since Jan 1 down nearly 5%. More detail on January 18 cases: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...769b733b0d.jpg Other Mindanao 39. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d287b46a88.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5adc3da3ba.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...faca254459.jpg NCR with just 20% of the cases and 9 cities in the top 20. Six other regions with over 100 cases showing the largest daily provincial contribution so far this year. Davao and CAR with both well over 200. Cagayan Valley with 151 cases and Cagayan 100 and its capital 85: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ea10e082fc.jpg Cagayan cases. Indonesia announcing over 10k new cases yesterday, over 9k the day before: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7a1cb6e246.jpg Four QC areas placed in a "granular lockdown" https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...d?ocid=BingHPC |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another 1,862 cases, 2 labs not reporting. Over 200 backlog added to the positives count out of 26.8k tests and slightly higher positivity at 6.1%. Tests coming along 24k, not a high number considering the rising positivity.
Top 5 locations: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b21e2d9383.jpg Surprisingly large number from Zamboanga City. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8557b9d373.jpg Zamboanga City cases. The city has a 1m population, 6th highest in the country. Perhaps significant for covid testing it covers the 3rd greatest area. Deaths 64 with 57 of them from December. Case fatality rate up to 1.98%. Critical 1,301, down 8. More detail on January 19 cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3a8d5f9758.jpg Other Mindanao 31. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8b6d4e019f.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8d5282cdc7.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...81772a5c62.jpg NCR 22%, consistent with recent figures. Nine cities in top 20. QC again with highest number. Six regions with numbers over 100. Recently in the NCR: Marikina and San Juan of greatest concern with new cases per head of population. Eight cities out of the 17 showing case increases last week. Outside Manila it is a picture of rising test positivity in many areas, up to nearly 20% in Benguet, Kalinga, Pangasinan, Isabela and Cagayan in the North. Positivity around 14% for Leyte and Negros Oriental. In Mindanao Misamis Or at 13%. Quezon province also 13%. Cebu and Davao del Sur showing recent large case increases. One wonders how well the LGUs in these areas are operating testing due to their remoteness. Judging by the number of tests not so well. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US publishes projections regularly. Philippines projections can be seen at: https://covid19.healthdata.org/phili...est=infections Note that they project total infections, not just the official numbers. For the Philippines you can see at about 4 times the official figures.. For Britain and the US it is about 3 times. For the US going forward he spread of the UK variant is an important variable due to its established 50% greater transmission rate. One case only, but In the Philippines 13 people got sick from contact with that one case. Already slow with vaccines the UK variant is a big threat to the Philippines economic recovery, which will already be weak and later than other countries in SE Asia. Question is how many other OFWs with it from the UK returned here before increased surveillance measures were started? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,783 new cases announced with four labs not reporting. Of those there was a backlog of over 400. Positivity was at a higher 6%. Tests in progress 28.2k.
Top locations: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0d953cd25d.jpg Back to NCR and Region 4A... Deaths 74 with 15RDs. Critical 1,326, up 25. Detail from January 20 cases: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...77ebdf4a28.jpg Plus other Mindanao 23. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...166d1ff4ee.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...006dd68435.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3f83057da6.jpg A surprising very large number of cases from Zamboanga City, Perhaps most a backlog? NCR with only 16.4% of total cases as CAR leads with over 17%. CAR urban areas with 5 places in the top 20. NCR cities took 7. The top eight regions accounted for three quarters of the country's cases. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...o?ocid=BingHPC The long running debate about Sweden and its anti covid policies continues as it passes a law giving the government power to impose some stricter measures, though travel bans are not included. They do include powers to shut shopping centres, limit public events and impose fines for social distancing violations. Masks now recommended but still not mandatory. Masks were previously not generally worn, even by children in schools. The new measures follow a spike in cases back in November, though since then daily cases have consistently fallen. On cases per million the latest figures show Sweden at 53.6, is much higher than its close neighbours Norway at 11.0, Finland at 7.5 and Denmark 33.1. Sweden in line with many other European countries eg the UK and France at 52 and 46. The latest figures on case fatality show a greater disparity with Sweden's neighbours at 1,078 per million. Compared to Norway at 100. Finland 124 and Denmark 329. But some other European countries are higher eg UK 1,389, France 1102, Belgium 1,771. Belgium started a second lockdown last November. Swedish daily deaths have been on a decline from a peak in December. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fc7f4a10f9.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...857e882e98.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH announced over 2k cases yesterday, 3 labs not reporting and heavy rain affecting parts of Luzon. Highest daily total since November 8. Positivity at 5.4% and over 800 results were backlog. Tests coming along 28.6k.
Top 5 locations: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6fd3dc6e7a.jpg More on QC at the end.. Deaths at 20 with 5 of them RDs. Active cases up to over 32k, highest since November 21. Critical patients 1,313, down 13. More detail on January 21 cases: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fb517083a0.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4236f5c8f4.jpg Plus Mandaluyong 15 https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...acb8d5b42a.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1148c217f7.jpg Plus Caloocan City 21 A quarter of cases from the NCR region lead and the top 7 regions gave 75%. Nine NCR cities in the top 20 urban areas. Cebu was the top province with nearly half of its cases from Cebu City. QC is usually the top NCR city for new cases and often the top city nationally. The city of Manila often too at the top or near it in the NCR and nationally. In terms of cases so far in the pandemic QC leads with over 40k official, Manila with 27.5k second. QC also has the most active cases now at over 1,600, with Manila at 1,100. But QCs population at nearly 3m is much greater than Manila's at 1.75m. So on the latest figures QC has 578 active cases per million compared to Manila's at 628. UK variant news: There are 16 more cases here, its just a matter of finding them. Twelve now detected in Bontoc (Mountain province), and another 4 in Benguet, and Laguna. A more reasonable policy of exempting those with valid visas, and spouses of citizens from the arrival ban brought in for over 30 countries. About time! Ten to fourteen year olds can go out in MGCQ areas and authorities in GCQ areas like the NCR can allow it. One of the banning measures those against lockdowns worry about in terms of the effect on the mental health of young people caused by no physical school attendance. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The numbers in the UK starting to look like the UK variant has a higher mortality although it's still early days. Vaccinations, first shot is running at about 350k per day with more vaccination centres coming online. Currently about 4.5m as of today.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,797 new cases announced and 4 labs did not report. Includes a backlog of over 500 results. A 5.6% positivity resulting from 21.9k tests. But good that tests in progress are well up at 37.4k.
Top 5 areas: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c64b466de6.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...43fdce1d66.jpg Davao City sharp case increase lately... Deaths 54. No news outlet giving notice of any RDs. Think there must be some.in that large total. Active cases on the rise to 33,603 and critical patient number down to 1,277, a large fall of 36 on the day before. More detail on Jan 22 cases: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...38fdc68651.jpg Other Mindanao 25 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fec3599464.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e21cbc977d.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...12500cbc9d.jpg The NCR made up 27% of cases with 14 of its cities in the top 20 urban areas. On a provincial level Cebu led, with 154 cases, 80 of them from Cebu City. QC as usual showing large numbers, but in line with its population size. Central Luzon showing repeated high regional positions for case increase, which should be of concern due to its high population, one much greater than that of other regions to the north. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...50e1ac5e15.jpg Central Luzon recent uptick.. UK variant: DOH and head doctor at RITM not willing to confirm yet community transmission in Mountain Province. But they do confirm It was here back on December 10 with the Laguna case. Also two OFWs with it returned from Lebanon to Bontoc on Dec 11. Mountain province with high positivity rates and 75 cases on Jan 22. The OCTA group reckon MP has one third of its cases due to the variant. Think the UK variant has probably entered the country from the UK or elsewhere into other areas and is just waiting to be detected. Vaccine priority: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...17059f00b9.jpg This was the initial priority list. Now it seems the military have gone up from 5th to near the top along with the poor: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/23/...llout-vs-covid Schooling: With its schools closed all year no word yet here on any re-opening for face to face tuition. Bach in October digital and modular tuition has ben going on. Poor broadband, lack of budget and difficulties in material distribution have affected this poor substitute for in class tuition.. This UNESCO map shows the Phil is not in line with most other countries on school opening: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7eadf1b4e7.jpg Last year the education secretary proposed an experimental opening in some areas of low infection this month, which was then canceled by the Chief Executive when he heard of the UK variant. One wonders how much thought went into hat decision. Previously he has said no face to face classes without a vaccine available. Although late here vaccines are now on the way. But no mention of teachers in the priority groups. Many countries have concluded that school opening is not a significant driver for community transmission and can be managed in areas of low infection. Ten to fourteen years may now go out here in many areas....but only to Malls. A more cautious approach is needed with high schools, but the risks are less at younger ages. From an October WHO report: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b6f11e4567.jpg More at https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=320db233_2 There now seems a strong possibility of a second year without state school attendance with bad effects on parents and kids development. Balancing of risks in this pandemic seems not to be something those at the top are good at here. Also many less well funded private schools have suspended operations and some have closed. One report said 15 had closed in Davao. What happened with those kids learning? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday added nearly 2k cases. Large backlog of nearly 900. Backlogs now more likely as tests being done in more labs.....over 200 now. Double the number 6 months ago. Positivity 4.3%. Tests in progress 32.9k.
Top 5 locations: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e0dc9bd97b.jpg Deaths 53. Must be some RDs but figure not available, again. Sunday mass recoveries at 7.7k. Active patients 27,765. That is a 12% increase on a week ago. Critical at 1,222 down 55, another large daily fall. More detail on January 23: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f0fe05d117.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4b7db06be9.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4744c5b2c0.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7488e8427d.jpg NCR at a low 21% of cases, 9 of its cities in top 20. Davao, Quezon and Cebu cities together made up over 16% of cases. Nine capital cities were in the top 20. For the last week daily case average was slightly higher at 1,857, up from 1,844 the week before. Deaths announced were down at 308, compared to 490 the week before. The R number nationally at 1.13 (NCR 1.08). Down but still well over 1.0. Some high positivities and rising case numbers in a number of areas. Testing has recovered to pre Xmas levels back in December but now with the added complication of genomic testing to look for the UK variant. And we can assume that contact tracing is struggling in many of the more remote areas of the country now. Main government worry: A UK variant surge would spoil a not too bad situation here currently, as it has done in a few European countries. Looking regionally in SE Asia Indonesia having a worse time. Daily new cases at well over 10k a day for each day in the last week. Cases per million at 3,595 (Phils 4,652). Deaths per million at 101 (Phils 93). Now higher. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9067137a4b.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Cases yesterday down to just over 1,500. Positivity of the 17.4k tested was 5.2%. Backlog added was nearly 700. Tests in preparation 32.9k.
Top 5 areas: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8bdaea8c14.jpg Deaths 50 and just one RD. Case fatality now at 2.0%, just below the international average. Critical 1,201. Another daily fall, 21 yesterday. More detail for January 24 cases: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...18e167daac.jpg Plus Bicol 27 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3bf4ac047d.jpg Plus Pasay 19, San Juan 14 https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c480010840.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3564968546.jpg Cebu Province again featuring strongly, as it did also today: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...10b9ac7c9d.jpg NCR just under 22%, with 11 cities in top 20. Davao and Baguio Cities join QC, Manila and Cebu cities in the top 5 urban areas. In the NCR the small city of San Juan, followed by Marikina and Makati are showing the highest number of recent cases as a proportion of population. On a regional level areas showing the greatest potential for more cases include many areas of N Luzon, especially Mountain Province, not yet classed as a region with community transmission of the UK variant. If it is that would explain the 19% positivity and the rapid increase in virus spread there. Also with high positivity Misamis Oriental and Quezon provinces. Although no confirmation of community transmission of the UK variant anywhere in the country and very strict testing of arrivals the President has not allowed 10-14 year olds generally out in MGCQ and GCQ areas as recommended by his panel of experts. He's also adjusted vaccine priorities more after raising the military nearer to the top of the list. By now adding the considerable numbers of those in the families of servicemen and women. A complication for those in the LGUs administering the shots and it will mean many in the original list will wait longer. The vaccines are some way off here so the initial priority list only caters for about 23% of the population. Those of you who now regularly view Dr John Campbell on You tube may have heard him comment recently in an aside that the aim of vaccine priorities here was mainly to reduce infection rates rather than reduce the strain on hospitals, as it is in the UK. As hospitals here are not so significant as in countries like the UK (many seriously ill with covid here don't even make it to hospital) and the virus is not so prevalent that seems reasonable. But according to the President the army and their families need vaccines first because they maintain peace and order, not that they are major cources of infection. Using that argument the police and other forces could also be included, but he is careful not to. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/25/...lies-of-troops |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,173 cases reported. Positives were mostly recent from 17.6k tests at 5.2% positivity. Only 21.5k tests coming along. Testing now down on recent figures in the upper 20ks.
Top areas: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1aa8b8e869.jpg Cebu City high number again. Deaths 94 with 15 RDs. As recoveries were only 18 the number critical shows another large fall, 47, to 1,154. The deaths look worse than they are as many announced recently were wrongly tagged in the past as recoveries. A long running data issue the DOH seem not to be able to rectify. More detail on January 25 cases: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d9d1c69ef7.jpg Plus Bicol 19 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9ea9afb3d7.jpg Pasay 12, Paranaque 10 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3a2fd0540b.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...319a3c3ea9.jpg NCR at 21% of total cases. Ten of its cities in the top 20. The top 5 cities all the major ones from around the nation. Cebu City and province having another wave after the first in July, when the generals were sent in to impose strict measures. Are they going to have to return? More difficult as provincial areas of the island increasing more this time, if you compare this chart for the city with that posted for the province in my post yesterday. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0250c4f5a4.jpg Cebu City Vaccine news: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/26/...ty-sectors-doh Now the many in soldiers families won't queue jump. But the priority list here only for just over a fifth of the population. If you look at the footnote to the priority chart put up on Jan 24 other deserving groups are listed.......those with co-morbidities, children, pregnant women. So are they going to be done before them? Also, the list has greatly expanded as families of health workers are now included! A good example of something commonly seen here. Policy on sensitive matters being made up on the hoof, without due consideration and ending up in a mess, A bum deal? https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/26/...avirus-vaccine For the reason given here or maybe another the country's leader won't be promoting vaccination to a sceptical public by filmed example. The Philippines vaccine program not just late but already looking badly organised. The onus seems to be being placed on LGUs to get enough vaccines for themselves Which many are doing, especially in the NCR.. But what about other places around the country where the infections have risen recently? https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6976 A study of studies concludes that at least one third of covid infections are asymptomatic. I recall estimates higher than that put out in the US last year. As an example 8% were found asymptomatic in yesterday's DOH daily tests here. The percentage is usually no more than 10 or 11%. Understandable as these people won't normally be tested. The expert media docs say that even when people are vaccinated and reach the time when they are well protected against illness they might still transmit the virus, at least to some extent. Spreading well before illness is a major feature of SARS viruses. One which makes them much more dangerous. They will study this aspect more as vaccinations roll out world wide. But for now they are cautioning those vaccinated as it might be that some will feel like relaxing on social distancing and other precautions after getting vaccinated. If true and added to any effects of new variants on increased transmission it will be another factor dragging out this pandemic further in time. You can follow the link in the summary article above if you want more detail on the study. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Nearly doubled cases yesterday on the day before...2,245. Only 4 labs not reporting. Test backlog of over 800 included. Positivity at 5.5%. Based on 25.8k tests. Tests coming along 24.3k. Now the cases are more provincial we can expect results day to day to be more variable. Testing and tracing more difficult in many of the areas showing increases in the N Luzon and Mindanao.
Top 5 areas: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f65b7637ce.jpg Four out of 5 are cities. Deaths 95, including 19 RDs. Case fatality at 2.02%. Critical at 1,101...down 53 on the day before. Will start showing those also severe to track this aspect better: In a severe condition 777. More detail on Jan 26 cases: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9064e17b05.jpg Other Mindanao 19. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...198337f6f2.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e212a031d5.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1b2b244d5d.jpg NCR 15%, Region 4A 14% As the NCR seems to be losing its dominance will also report its figures with 4A So 29% for the expanded epicenter. Only eight NCR cities in top 20, most low in table. Cebu dominating provincial cases. https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...edical-schools At last a small concession on face to face classes. If these people cannot be safe who can? Regarding schooling a study of some Wisconsin schools by the CDC: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...unity-transmi/ We await here what will happen with schools. One could understand the reluctance if the UK variant was widespread or would soon be....but in contrast with European countries and the US, flight bans, the limited attraction of coming here plus very restricted domestic travel makes that unlikely. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/27/...vid-19-variant The single face shield is enough...for now!. Rather than rule it out she knows there is an element here making the decisions who could easily try to impose double face shields on top of masks somewhere on the public if it raises protection only from 99.5 to 99.6%. ignoring factors like comfort, cost, visibility. PCR tests are a bit painful...so maybe some people would prefer this? https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/01...-19-infections |
Re: NCR llockdown
After a high total announced on the 27th yesterday the total back down to 1,169. Following a pattern lately. Actually 1,298 positives were found, so nearly 130 not reported for some reason. Positivity from the 26.2k tests was at 5.0%. Tests on the way at 27.7k.
Top locations: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c20ddbd774.jpg National Reproduction number is now estimated at 1.0, NCR 0.93. (Jan 24). Deaths at 71. No RDs reported again. Few have been lately. Case fatality rate up at 2.03. Close to Sweden at 2.04, one of Europe's worst performers on deaths. ABS-CBN data analytics have looked at the delays in reporting deaths. They also take a brief look at the RDs. Basically the delays have meant that the Philippine health system is only now seen for doing a very poor job, rather than just a poor job 6 months ago. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/28/...ugust-doh-data Critical down to 1,036, down 66, severe at 769, down 8. More detail on cases from Jan 27: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ff77393060.jpg Bicol 20 https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...47e93b9f1a.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bfec7962c0.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4a5c9a0db3.jpg NCR contribution at 18.7%, Region 4A at 10.3%. Both "old" epicenters at 29% of total cases. NCR had 7 cities in the top 20. CAR cities prominent at top of the urban table. The rise in Cebu City and its province cases this month is greatly concerning the OCTA experts: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f57b8e5b7c.jpg Though hospital facilities are coping for now the Reproduction number high at 1.6. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/28/...ays-octa-group The DOH are careful to class the UK variant transmission in Bontoc as "local", rather than use the more stronger term "community". Whereas the OCTA group seem to be sure it is community spread there and are saying that the latest rises in Cebu could also be due to the presence of the UK variant. Genomic testing is slow here. Some of the latest DOH charts (ignore the trend lines in all charts as they do not account for the significant data reporting delays)" The national chart: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a19f4a1b4b.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3c821d77b6.jpg NCR....a slight rise. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6caac08589.jpg Calabarzon..slight rise..mostly due to Cavite. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2e026ad659.jpg Davao del Sur..its rapid rise moderated a little lately. Notable that the situation in Davao City and its province is not getting the attention of Cebu. While new cases have dropped recently whereas Cebu's have kept on rising through January, positivity there is greater at 10% to Cebu's 6%. The media seem reluctant to say much about covid in a region controlled by those close to the President. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Just a note about the UK variant and pcr testing. Purely by luck, not design, the UK pcr test detects and distinguishes between the old variant and the UK variant. I know the US pcr test doesn't so do we assume the Philippines pcr test doesn't also.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12965434)
Just a note about the UK variant and pcr testing. Purely by luck, not design, the UK pcr test detects and distinguishes between the old variant and the UK variant. I know the US pcr test doesn't so do we assume the Philippines pcr test doesn't also.
Dr John recently went through some very good data from the ONS which was about comparing symptoms for UK variant with those of the standard one. Basically many symptoms were stronger, eg cough, some were the same and it was only loss of smell/taste which was a lot less with the variant. So while not definitive more severe symptoms can be added to its more rapid spread to add to suspicion of the presence of UK variant when genomic tests are not available or slow to process. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 12965443)
I think we do.
Dr John recently went through some very good data from the ONS which was about comparing symptoms for UK variant with those of the standard one. Basically many symptoms were stronger, eg cough, some were the same and it was only loss of smell/taste which was a lot less with the variant. So while not definitive more severe symptoms can be added to its more rapid spread to add to suspicion of the presence of UK variant when genomic tests are not available or slow to process. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12965503)
I don't think that will work as judging symptoms is subjective and even with the old variant the strength of symptoms varies from mild to full blown
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4a11f7bff0.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...20a9cc95a7.jpg As can be seen cough, sore throat, fatigue, muscle ache. loss of smell, taste are significantly different between the two eg cough and loss of smell/taste showing the greatest differences. But also fatigue and muscle ache with significant differences. Also: with the UK variant more symptoms were reported ie there were statistically less asymptomatic cases. So there is a distinct difference between the two types of virus in terms of symptoms. In a situation where genome testing is slow and/or expensive and some idea is needed on whether a new variant has been established in a region then a survey can be done. At the very least hospital docs can be telephoned and emailed or a proper survey can be easily worked up. .Maybe those hospitals collect symptom data anyway?. For a place like Cebu City where cases are rising quickly a week's cases are at least 1,000, a decent sample size. Then compare with the existing DOH symptom data or other countries for the old virus. Also with the UK new virus symptom data or data from the other European countries affected. The UK had a large amount of data for the recent survey with about 50% for each virus type. With a much smaller potential outbreak here eg Cebu, the sample size will be much lower and that would be taken into account statistically as to whether large scale genomic testing is justified. At present fear from seeing the effect of the UK variant in the UK and some European countries without much evidence of the UK variant being established here is haunting government leaders and is already affecting their decisions.. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I saw the same presentation and the effects of the “new virus “ are similar to my experience last August/September so perhaps the latest and more contagious virus has been around and undetected for some time
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Re: NCR llockdown
Looking at those charts the only symptom showing a significant difference is the cough, all the others are to close to call, the limits shown by the black bars
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12965566)
Looking at those charts the only symptom showing a significant difference is the cough, all the others are to close to call, the limits shown by the black bars
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Re: NCR llockdown
On Jan 29 another 1,849 cases. Eight labs closed. With over 200 now no idea if that is significant. Over 400 cases were from a backlog. Positives from 23k tests and positivity slightly higher than of late at 6.2%. Tests coming along at a much higher 36.7k.
The DOH are discontinuing the "top 5" locations, saying it confuses the public. They say they can look at the DOH covid tracker site. But it is updated later on the day and is not user friendly. I think the top 5 regions would be better anyway. Deaths 48 with 2 RDs. Critical 1,016 and Severe 771...down 20 and up 2 respectively. More detail on Jan 28 cases: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e8bf798a5b.jpg Other Mindanao 53 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a8b6b5c42e.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...acb72d4a57.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f569cc2c59.jpg NCR 24.6%, Region 4A 13.3%. The two together 37.9%., much higher than the previous day. NCR had 9 cities in the top 20. A nearly 7% increase in Active cases on the day. The ridiculous travel ban on arrivals from over 30 countries "will not be extended after Jan 31"!! The President has set the Quarantine levels starting Feb 1. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/29/...ovid-19-update CAR goes from MGCQ to GCQ: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b8e8d9ed57.jpg CAR..incl Baguio City..steep rise NCR stays in GCQ...again. You can see the NCR chart on yesterday's post, showing a slight rise. Batangas stays in GCQ: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...be5551b9c4.jpg Yes...its case numbers rising steeply.. It's difficult to see how Cebu stayed in MGCQ https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7ed8085ce7.jpg Cebu City Although only 2 of its hospitals are at even moderate levels of occupancy Keeping the major economic area in GCQ when cases are only rising gradually following the holidays is justified by the President's spokesman when he asserts that "almost 75% of the economy is open in GCQ areas". Maybe..but business people will remain nervous of a future move back to ECQ. The President has the UK variant in mind, people know that and that he is capable of a panic reaction if it is ever just detected a few times in the NCR. Last, Davao City stayed in GCQ, despite this: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...ce/ar-BB1dar6T It didn't get a stricter quarantine. I wonder why? I'm sure some of these decisions are not following evidence based expert recommendations, |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 2,109 cases announced with 6 labs not reporting. Tested were 27k and of those positives 1,357, so a positivity of 5%. A backlog of results of 750 or so added. Tests in process at 32k.
No locational detail available until the DOH give data later today. I am interested to see what the TV news does each evening with this lack of information. I don't think they are going to talk about the locations of yesterday's cases each evening. You do wonder if the government is getting sensitive about the increased regional spread of the virus. Deaths 71 with 5RDs. At last the number of RDs are going down. Case fatality rate 2.04%..the same again as Sweden's. Allowing for both deaths and recoveries the number of active cases rose by 5%, on the day before but Active Cases will fall tomorrow when weekly mass recoveries are announced. Critical cases down 55 at 961, severe cases up 5 at 776. Critical cases have fallen significantly lately from the levels of late last year....maybe better treatment, increased deaths plus a lagged effect from lower admissions late last year all factors. Needs investigating, but complicated by the delays in reporting deaths. Case locations for Jan 29: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...745b4fde1c.jpg Plus Bicol 27 https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e50a842023.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7a5244fa1c.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5e0681a7eb.jpg NCR 19.4%, Region 4A 12.1%...total of main regional epicenter 31.5%. NCR with 8 cities in the top 20. Cebu top province and second urban area. Davao still showing high daily numbers but recent data indicates its cases falling from their recent peak: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...981068bc00.jpg Davao City Passi City is a 4th class conurbation in IloIlo, pop about 80k. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/30/...vid-19-variant Forty eight genome tests for variants have drawn a blank and they are short of the reagents |
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