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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a further 4,898 cases, slightly down on the day before with 5 labs not reporting. Over 1,300 from the results backlog. Positivity up again to 11.9%. Tests in preparation 36.1k.
Deaths at 63 including 16 RDs. Severe and Critical at 771 each, both down 23 on the day before. The daily changes in the hospital data are often not very believable! Yesterday was another mass recovery day with 13.4k recoveries. Active cases are now at 48,157, a 34% rise on a week ago! Some locational detail: Top regions: NCR 2369 (48.2%), 4A 739 (15.1), Central Visayas 542 (11.1), Central Luzon 439 (9.0) The top 4 regions accounting for well over 80% of national cases. The share of the NCR was up and 4A down somewhat on the day before, Central Luzon's and that of Central Visayas were both up. NCR cities: QC 433, Manila 435, Pasay 263, Makati 204, Pasig 163, Paranaque 147, Taguig 136, Caloocan 127, Marikina 119....all were 100 and over. Order similar to the day before for the top 6 cities. Further down Taguig and Marikina had more cases. High but below 100 were Navotas, Malabon, Valenzuala and Mandaluyong. I omitted Mandaluyong from the 3 digit cases list yesterday. It actually had 107 new cases. Yesterday's cases were down to 86, but it is a good example of how serious the recent surge is in the NCR: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fcc7de72de.jpg Mandaluyong's cases were flatlining for many weeks, then a sharp and steep increase. In contrast the NCR as a whole had a noticeably gradual increase in Jan and Feb, as did several of its cities. For region 4A Cavite led as usual, with 342 cases ,but had an alarming 80 more cases. Rizal was second with 219, only a few more on the day before. In the Central Visayas Cebu City was up by 80 cases to 251. Together with Mandaue and LapuLapu the three biggest Cebu cities had 400 or 74%, of the region's 542 cases In Central Luzon Bulacan's total rose by 66 to 312. Pampanga's were also up, by 13. Cases from both Baguio and Davao Cities were down on the day before...to 38 and 23. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...rch-end/story/ https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...S?ocid=BingHPC Projections assuming the current Reproduction numbers are maintained yield large daily case numbers, mainly in the NCR and surrounding areas of Luzon. For comparison current UK daily numbers are 5-6,000 and trending downwards. Figures of 20k a day seem unlikely as one would assume many more restrictions will soon have to be imposed and re-imposed. So far not much, except from today the Manila wide 10pm to 5 am curfew is being imposed. It has exceptions: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...Y?ocid=BingHPC I think this sort of measure will become more common: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/14/...nsite-capacity |
Re: NCR llockdown
Today Sunday the UK recorded 4618 new cases and 52 deaths so for one day the Philippines surpasses the UK numbers.
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Re: NCR llockdown
A 20% increase in NCR cases meant yesterday's total was over 5,400. Just 5 labs did not report. Positivity was at 11.5%. Tests not keeping up with just under half of the announced total coming from a backlog. Tests in process 36k. Not enough with positivity high and increasing. Only good thing is that the growth is mainly in Manila and nearby, where increasing testing should be easier, though processing results will need more labs and maybe samples sent outside the NCR?
Deaths 8 with 3 of them RDs. Active cases at over 53k with Severe and Critical both at 749, down again.....by 22. Last week vs the week before: Average cases per day 3,639 (2414)....a just over 50% increase. Average daily deaths 43 (25) Location details: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...97b0154dc7.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b43295a3f5.jpg Note the high number of unidentified results. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d3183cb8a9.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0978fe4652.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...85252f3348.jpg Note: have dispensed with the top 20 table for now as it has become almost a repeat of the NCR table. NCR leading by far with nearly 53% of national cases. Region 4A next with nearly 16%.. Central Visayas with nearly 8% followed closely by Central Luzon with 7.6%. NCR up 20% on the day, 4A up 16%. Both C Visayas and Luzon were down. QC with 23% of NCR cases alone! And an increase of over 50% on the day before. Other NCR cities are showing similar increases on the day before eg Pasig and Taguig. But Makati was about the same and Pasay was down by nearly 80 cases. Malabon was up by over 90 cases. Provincially Cebu led with, as usual, having the great majority of Central Visayas cases. Cebu City with 148 or 38% of them. But its daily total was down by over 100 on the day before. Cavite is the next province in terms of cases but it reported nearly 50 less than the day before. The cities of Imus and Dasmarinas together accounted for nearly half of the province's total. They are NCR commuting areas. Rizal is similar with Antipolo and Cainta having more than half its total of cases, which also grew yesterday. Laguna cases went up by 34. In Central Luzon Bulacan's total fell yesterday by over 100. Pampanga's rose a little. Vaccination news: The President making more interventions with vaccine priorities: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/16/...ontra-covid-19 Must be many thousands in Manila alone. Who will be put back if they are promoted? Yes, also very difficult to do! One of the main reasons for the persistence of the outbreak here is poor contact tracing: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=5 Not "most". 14%....but it seems likely that is a major transmission source here. Distancing is often difficult here in many settings of daily life and ventilation getting to be a bigger problem as it gets warmer. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Cases down to 4,437. Seven labs not reporting. The DOH's latest testing was at the same level as the day before, but the backlog results added were a lot less at about 1,600. Positivity was down a little at 11.2%. Tests coming along down at 29k.
Deaths at 11 with 4 of them RDSs. Active cases now up at 57,736 , the highest since Oct 3, with Severe and Critical in hospital up only 2 at 751. Little daily movement lately indicating capacity limits close? Lately Severe and Critical patients are often the same number. Strange and not what it used to be. Some location detail: Regions: NCR 2231 (50.3%), 4A 767 (17.3), Central Luzon 405 (9.1), Central Visayas 279 (6.1) , CAR 176 (4), Cagayan Valley 114 (2.6) NCR down at 50.3% of national cases, down over 2%. 4A;s share up 1.4% on the day before. Central Visayas's share down 1.8%. Large falls in many NCR cities eg Malabon down 160, Marikina 80, Valenzuala 53, Taguig 55, Pasig 135, QC 135. Cases rose slightly in Manila and Paranaque. More significant were rises in Navotas and Muntinlupa....by 14 and 20. With region 4A Cavite cases were down by 47, Laguna's by over 100. Batangas's down by 26. But Quezon cases were up by 25 and more significantly Rizal cases were up by 73. In Central Luzon Bulacan was up by 52 but Pampanga down 40. In the Central Visayas for the large city urban cases on Cebu, ie Cebu, Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities together were down to 141... but still over half of Cebu island's cases. Elsewhere Baguio City was up at 65 and Davao City up also at 44. The OCTA research group keep recalculating the R number. Now over 2. Consequently 11k cases a day in 2 weeks time is possible. Their best guess at the percentage of variants is 10%, So one might then conclude that nearly all of this surge is down to lax behavour. But as they explain if these variants started in just one ore two areas and then spread rapidly, as they can do, then their contribution has been greater. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/16/...continues-octa New restrictions on international arrivals announced from March 20 for a month: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/16/...continues-octa |
Re: NCR llockdown
Late coming in complete regional and NCR case numbers for yesterday:
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d6910a1d09.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...30953fb46d.jpg Cases here mainly from the weekend. Expect more today. NCR cities: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9ee28d539e.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a0273a8f98.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases announced yesterday were actually 50 less than the day before at 4,387. Six labs not reporting. But testing found 5,321 positives , so nearly 1,000 positives were held back from being announced. Why? Positivity went up much more to 14.1%. So good that tests coming are now to over 40k at 41.8k.
Deaths 18 with 5 RDs. Active cases now at 61.7k. Severe up 51 at 802. Critical down 10 at 741. Some location details: Regions: NCR 2471 (56.7%), 4A 603 (13.7), Central Luzon 283 (6.4), Central Visayas 235 (5.4), Cagayan Valley 195 (4.4) NCR very dominating and these 6 regions gave over 90% of the national total. A notable 10.8% increase in the NCR and even more of an increase on the day in Region 4A at over 21%. Central Luzon and Cagayan both down. For the NCR: cities on the up were led by QC with another 125 cases. Makati, Marikina and Pasay all reported about 50 more. Malabon, Navotas, Pasay and Taguig all had lower case numbers: QC 605, Manila 370, Makati 248, Pasay 168, Caloocan 168, Pasig 153, Paranaque 145, Taguig 112 and Marikina 107 were those cities with 100 and over. In Calabarzon all provinces except Batangas and Laguna were down, especially Rizal, which was down by 155. Batangas was up 44. In Central Luzon Bulacan was down by 100. In the Central Visayas Cebu's 3 main cities reported a similar number to the day before at 144 more cases, 61% of the region's. Baguio City was up 10 to 74. Davao just 7 new cases. News on variants: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...26b5ef2aa0.jpg The DOH in this graphic saying that variants do seem to be playing some role in the recent surge of cases in a number of regions. But lvery limited as they are only finding a few percent of samples with variants. Though we do know that Genome analysis here has a low capacity and is slow. For more detail: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/17/...imes-doh-warns Vaccination roll out: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...g-april/story/ https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3fa6c7f272.jpg UK covid vacconation progresss As you can see the UK, with the advantages of the NHS and a surer vaccine supply could only get over 400k a day for a short time. Maintaining 450k a day here seems mightily over optimistic to me.. Doing a back of the envelope calculation yes you could theoretically get about 160m shots in arms here over a year. But they're likely to be given at much less than the advertised daily rate from the DOH Secretary and so at the end of 1 year probably most people will have had one shot but many not their second. Then of course there's the possibility of booster shots needed. What do you need to do here to get herd immunity here anyway? More. Because the outbreak here, even allowing for under reporting, has not, up to now been a large one, antibodies and other cell immunity gained from previous infection are likely to be at a much lower prevalence here. The latest UK data suggests about 35% of the population there already have a level of immunity from past infection due to the presence of antibodies alone, https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...38fbec112a.jpg Last, as has been obvious all along deaths here due to covid have been many more than announced in the DOH figures. Admittedly the same as in most other countries, especially the less developed and those more developed who hide the truth from their people. Even on DOH figures the death record here is a poor one ,at just below the world average, given the very young population. It's likely the recent surge will put the Philippines above the world average in a few months time.. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/17/...probable-cases |
Re: NCR llockdown
Some additions to yesterday's data:
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...db1adc2e03.jpg Unidentified again high. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4005812516.jpg San Juan high for a pop of under 150,000. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f735c8e3b9.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Increased early week results now out with 5,290 cases. Eight labs did not report. Over 300 results held over. Positivity from 40k individual tests again at 14.1%. Tests coming along at 42k. Will they be able to increase further given the high positivity? Along with contact tracing.
Deaths at 21 with 6 RDs. Severe and Critical both reported at 799, down 3 and up 58. Active cases are now over 66k. A 6 month high. Some location detail: Top regions: NCR 2767, 4A 917, Cen Visayas 473, Cen Luzon 413, Cagayan Valley 159 Just below 90% of cases. All except Cagayan increased on the day before. Region 4A by more than 50%. NCR at 52.3% and 4A at 17.3%. So the two together accounting for nearly 70% of all cases! For the NCR QC fell 66 from yesterday's large total pf 605.. Makati. fell by 25. There were other smaller falls but they were outweighed by big rises in Manila, Marikina, and Pasay. Five other cities had smaller rises. In Calabarzon there were substantial rises in each of its five provinces. In Cavite by 84% to 371 cases. In Central Luzon Bulacan cases rose by 38% to 245. In the Central Visayas Cebu City reported a much higher 200 cases. Together with Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities there were 320 cases, two thirds of the region's cases. Baguio City had just 11 cases, CAR cases were well down at 41. Davao City was at 43 cases, continuing its recent low figures. Vaccine priorities: Another category now being suggested...resident in the NCR: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...id-cases-spike You can see their point but it further complicates the priorities and will look unfair to those in the provinces. There are some big differences in infection rates across the NCR . And you would think that with its location, the concentration of medical resources and wealth of its cities the NCR will get a large proportion of the early vaccines anyway? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Latest NCR hospital data:
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2cc694326b.jpg Overall 53% occupancy seems not too bad... By district Manila and N Manila are both at about 47%. the East at 51%...but the Southern area is the highest at 69%. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I guess in a country where most people can't afford to go to hospital they being not stretched should not be a surprise.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12985377)
I guess in a country where most people can't afford to go to hospital they being not stretched should not be a surprise.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday new cases announced were not far from 2k more than the day before, at 7,103. The highest ever (previous high Aug 10 at 6,958) although earlier in 2020 testing was much lower. Five labs not reporting. But there are now over 200 in the country. The total included a backlog of over 1.7k. Positivity went up again to 15%.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3d275eabaa.jpg Tests in preparation at 39.9k Daily figures would be much higher if they can ramp up testing. However, some have speculated that LGU staff have been diverted to vaccination duties making that more difficult. Deaths 13 with 4 RDs. Active case number again up at 73,264, the highest since Aug 29. Severe cases (in DOH approved hospitals!) up 7 tp 806, Critical down 66 (!) to 733 Some location detail: NCR 3,779, 4A 1,090, Central Luzon 762, Central Visayas 459, CAR 175, Cagayan Valley 140 These 6 regions gave just over 90% of national cases. NCR plus 4A again had about two thirds of national cases. Adding in Central Luzon to complete the area around the NCR gives 79% of national cases on yesterday's figures. NCR cases were up over 1,300 on the day, a 53% increase. Central Luzon added 480, 4A 487 and Central Visayas had 224. more. Most notable was Central Luzon with a 90% daily increase as Central Visayas is a long established hotspot. For NCR cities: QC 752, Manila 609, Makati 321, Caloocan 271, Pasig 262, Pasay 249, Taguig 244 and Paranaque 211 Those were the top 8 cities. They gave 77% of the NCR total. Below them and over 100 were Marikina 172 followed by Mandaluyong and Valenzuala, both at 144. All cities increased their count, though Navotas by only 1. Most concerning on rising case numbers, due to their lower population: Pasay and Marikina. In region 4A all provinces showed an increase, but Laguna and Rizal stood out with increases of 164 and 134 over the previous day. In Central Luzon Bulacan increased by 287 on the previous day's number, that's a 65% increase. In contrast Pampanga's number fell. In the Central Visayas the three largest Cebu cities again contributed about 60% of the region's total. Baguio and Davao Cities reported 49 and 31 new cases. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...9-cases/story/ Government officials get an easy ride here with a deferential public and timid media. The experience of many countries around the world in 2020 was that you must reduce cases to a very low level to really control this virus. Allowing cases to just flatline invites future increases. Anyway the NCR showed a slight but consistent increase from January through to February this year. Testing was way down in that period, even though positivity was not consistently below 5%,as the WHO recommends for getting control. Surprised at the steepness of the increase? Not if you have a variant like the "UK" one, as the UK showed at the end of last year. While genome testing cannot be definitive here on the role of variants in the surge, many experts were saying they were a likely factor, given the sudden increases. Th DOH meanwhile wanted to blame the public for most of it. Taking a lead from the top this authoritarian approach from the DOH led them to not maintain the testing effort and not look to learn from other countries. The information to do this is easily available on the web. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/19/...imism-variants On explaining the surge in the NCR and surrounding regions this WHO official added a new one..."vaccine optimism". But I don't think there's much of that about. Surveys show many people didn't even want to get one. Then there's the doubts over Chinese vaccines. Of course this may all change when significant quantities of vaccine arrive next month and the general public start to get their shots. But did they ever get excited over the past 3 months? The government tried to hype it up. eg by the President meeting supplies at the airport etc, but did all that convince a sceptical public to behave differently? |
Re: NCR llockdown
The complete DOH tables and the latest OCTA research update:
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...37348ea0f6.jpg Plus OFW 32, other Mindanao 91 Below 100 cases NCR cities: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3babaa7c5e.jpg 14 NCR cities in the top 20. NCR R estimate now 1.96 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1152a0b27a.jpg Non NCR cities in the top 20: 10: Cebu 153 15 and 16: Cainta and Antipolo 86 and 85 18 IloIlo 76 19 LapuLapu 76 20 Bacoor 69 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d45ab87a23.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8f61908727.jpg Yellow: alarming increases. Orange: significant numbers for the parameter (s) Blue: improvement |
Re: NCR llockdown
Surge continues with daily record 8k cases announced yesterday. Nearly 900 more cases than the day before. Six labs not reporting. Positivity at 14.6% with a backlog included of over 3,600 cases as test processing struggles to keep up. Tests on the way 40k.
Deaths at 30 with 10 RDs. Active cases at 80,642 the second highest. Highest was on Aug 16 at 83,109. Severe unchanged at 806, Critical down 7 at 726. Some location detail: Regions: NCR 4059, 4A 1348, Central Luzon 828, Central Visayas 409 , Cagayan Valley 349, CAR 277 These six regions gave 91% of the national total. NCR 51% and 4A 17%...again the two together two thirds of the national total. The NCR put on 280 more cases than the day before, 4A added nearly a quarter more. All regions except Central Visayas , with 50 less, added more cases than they did the day before. In the NCR: QC 870, Manila 689, Pasig 329, Makati 297, Pasay 285, Caloocan 228, Paranaque 222 and Marikina 218.....were all 200 or more added. Pasig adding 67, Manila 80 and QC 118 cases on yesterday's figures. Notable fall for Taguig with cases added, by nearly 100. In region 4A Batangas and Cavite both added a lot more yesterday than the day before. Laguna additions fell by 23. In Central Luzon Bulacan added 95 more cases to record 534 added. Pampanga added 118 yesterday, compared to 152 the day before. In Cebu the three largest cities added 246 cases, 28 less than the day before. A lower than usual 53% of the region's cases. Baguio City creeping up at 63 Davao City also up at 60. More variants found: https://www.rappler.com/nation/doh-r...-march-20-2021 Apart from a NCR wide curfew, closures of businesses recently re-opened and opening hours restrictions of govt offices, the main measure seems to be lockdowns of small residential areas in those cities with surging cases. Unfortunately the surge may have become community wide and is not localized any more. At present the government is trying hard to avoid a Manila wide lockdown. Most commentators agree...for now...but one or two, plus some hospital staff, are proposing a short lockdown or "circuit breaker": https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/20/...urge-continues This was tried last year for 2 weeks and apart from placating the hospital workers for a while, did little. Longer lockdown would mean much more financial help and the only way the government could afford that is to drastically revise its spending plans. All very embarrassing. No easy solutions, given the late arrival of vaccines. Politically only one thing is going for them and that is the new covid surges in many European countries. Though in our neighbourhood Indonesia has been doing much better with a falling new cases trend and 3% vaccinated once, in contrast to here with only 0.2% vaccinated. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Complete DOH tables for yesterday's case announcement:
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4e7a589fc1.jpg Plus MIM 30, Unident. 29, other Mindanao 35 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...233ef5c155.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cef5e90379.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...50a09558fa.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c85adabe15.jpg Note: Santiago City pop about 150k. Latest DOH charts for 3 top recent cases regions: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9a2ebad6f0.jpg NCR https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0ce4f061e2.jpg Calabarzon https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fc3e134ae0.jpg Central Luzon Note: Central Visayas has about 4k more cases for the pandemic as a whole, but Region 3 cases have been growing more quickly lately and with its much larger population has more potential for future case growth. Surge there started in early January, earlier than the NCR's and Calabarzon's. But from a lower level. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another 7,757 new cases. The Philippines recorded the 14th highest number of new cases yesterday worldwide. The total included a nearly 3k backlog. Positivity up a little at 14.8%. Tests on the way at 40k.
Deaths at 39, 2 of them RDs. Yesterday was another "mass recovery day" with 15.3k announced. Active now at 73,072 , an increase of nearly 25k or 52% on ;last Sunday. Severe cases in hospitals down 75 to 731, Critical up 78 to 804. More detail: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4b9b57c1c3.jpg Plus Bicol 31, E Visayas 30, MIM 30, OFW 21 and BARMM 8 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0722c1246b.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...64735f7761.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8352883f10.jpg NCR cases were up by 8% on the day and contributed 57% of the national total. The 4 other top regions from yesterday saw their case numbers fall. Region 4A had 14% so together with the NCR had 71% of national cases. Together with Central Luzon's 9% these 3 regions had 80% of national cases. The NCR had 14 cities in the top 20. Notable was Pasay up 172 on the day before, Pasig up 110. Taguig was up by 99, Navotas by 98 and Paranaque by 76. Caloocan up by 52. Marikina was down 52. In region 4A Cavite, Laguna, Batangas and Rizal's numbers were all down on the day before. In Central Luzon Bulacan's were also down but Pampanga's were up by 23. Neuva Ecija is the region's third most populated province and for the first time it made the top 10 at tenth position. Elsewhere Cebu City was up 48 to 170, LapuLapu was at 78, Mandaue City at 49. So these 3 cities added to 297 or 64% of the region's cases. Davao City added 36, Baguio City 49 cases. Santiago City, Isabela again added a significant number....87. As of today to try to control the surge in cases Cavite, Laguna, Rizal and Bulacan join the NCR in GCQ ( the 3 region 4A provinces were formerly in MGCQ). But a GCQ with extra restrictions, making the quarantine levels meaningless: https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...zal-march-2021 Sensible as Easter usually has a great deal of movement from Manila and its surrounding area to provinces nationwide.. Most other measures will likely do little, except perhaps restricting travel to essential reasons. The death knell to local tourism again if it is enforced in my neck of the woods, Tagaytay. It had 63 cases in the latest week's numbers, much higher than the figures for other locations here in Upper Cavite. Whether these were linked to tourism is not known, but it seems likely most were. Household mixing is again discouraged, but no order again made as in some European countries. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another total over 8k yesterday, not surprising with positivity at nearly 15%. About 3,500 of the cases were from a backlog. Tests in process at 38k.They really need to increase consistently to over 40k at least with the high positivity now.
There were 4 new deaths announced. Active cases now at the highest since Aug 15, at nearly 81k. The Severe in the main hospitals up 79 to 810, the Critical down 75 to 729. Hmmm? Location detail: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8adb4d65d9.jpg Plus Unident 38, OFW 23, other Mindanao 59 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...421919b135.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bebe24beee.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2117d10a74.jpg Slightly different picture yesterday with the NCR down in cases, Though Region 4A compensated rising by 265 on yesterday the four other regions in the top 6 all reported less. So the total share of the top 6 regions was down to 83.5% of the total. The regions of W. Visayas, Illocos and those in Mindanao added cases. Still the NCR had 15 of its 17 cities in the top 20 urban areas. The majority of NCR cities had less cases with the most notable Pasay with 249 less and Paranaque with 89 less. Significantly less new cases also for Pasig, Valenzuala, Marikina and Navotas.. Manila down by 58. But Taguig had 135 more cases, Mandaluyong 48 and tiny San Juan 37 more. QC up 55 and closing in on 1k cases a day, but we must remember it has an over 3m population. In region 4A all provinces except Batangas had more cases. Cavite had 162 more and Rizal 94 more. In Central Luzon Bulacan was up 79 on yesterday's count. Pampanga was down 7. In the Central Visayas Cebu City was 16 cases up on the day before and the total with Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities added was 19 up at 316, These 3 cities contributed 65% of Central Visayas cases. Baguio City notably had 82 more cases added than yesterday at 131. Davao City well under control with only 25 more cases announced. https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/03...as-form-bubble The right hand and the left...one part of the government telling people to only make essential journeys in the new NCR+ bubble. Then another part encouraging "staycations" in another part of the bubble! It was interesting yesterday to see checks being made on travelers at checkpoints within the bubble yesterday at some of its external borders.. Initially many people were stopped from crossing, then a directive came not to do that as long as they were following the pandemic rules. Understandable as infection rates differ greatly within the NCR plus area. Hospitals in the NCR under great pressure: Eg Marikina. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/22/...hospitals-full https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/22/...9-bed-capacity Vague ...and late... plans on hiring more health workers! More definitive news on the virus variants: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ies-doh/story/ Even with this the DOH still maintaining there is no evidence of community transmission, just local transmission! It gives them more room in the media to tell off the public for not following the guidelines. The comparison last week with the week before last: Last week case average 5,634 a day. The week before 3,639....a 1,995 or 55% increase! |
Re: NCR llockdown
A much lower total announced yesterday at 5,837. Probably reflecting lower reporting and testing over the weekend. An over 800 backlog included. Positivity up further at 15.4%. Tests in progress 19.2k.
Deaths 20 with 8 of them RDs. Active cases now at 86,200. Hospital patient condition daily data quite volatile lately.....Severe down 34 and Critical up 47 to 776 in both categories. Location detail: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...92f23319a2.jpg Also: MIM 19, OFW 10, other Mindanao 47 https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4449d20e01.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...98a63f78f6.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6db4f1dbb4.jpg Regionally NCR dominating with 61% of the reduced case total. Region 4A with a higher than usual 17.8%. Central Luzon is the weakest member of the 3 regional areas now clearly the epicenter. Together they gave 87% of cases. The top 6 regions, with W Visayas displacing the CAR for yesterday at least, contributed nearly 94%. Unidentified up at 51, with 11 of those NCR, 40 elsewhere. Maybe due to tests being processed further away and/or more mobility of cases? For the NCR it had 15 of its 17 cities in the top 20 urban areas. Most of the larger cities had less cases. But notably Pasay recorded 86 more, Caloocan 72 and Paranaque 43. For the smaller cities Muntinlupa, Navotas and Pateros had between 10 and 20 more. Malabon and San Juan were nearly unchanged. Provincially Bulacan was up 50 and Batangas up 15. Cavite, Laguna and Rizal all fell compared to yesterday.. The DOH covid tracker site not yet updated so can't report on Baguio, Cebu and Davao cities...except to say they must have all had less than 70 cases. https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...law-last-month Even if it is eventually found to be a misunderstanding this just adds to the reputation the Philippines is getting as being difficult to deal with. How it looks internationally with the Philippines surge of new cases: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6f52b453b0.jpg New cases March 22. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 6,666 new cases but 7 labs not reporting. Still lower weekend numbers affecting the total. The total today included a backlog of over 1,700. Positivity constant at 15.3%. Tests in progress at a higher 41.8k.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/24/...o-130000-daily Even boosting to a more realistic 50k would bring a great benefit of discovering about another 1,500 cases daily. Deaths at 47, 11 RDs included. Active cases at 91,574. Severe up 48 to 824 and Critical down 43 to 733. More large changes. Location detail: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d19429066d.jpg MIM 25, OFW 22. other Mindanao 59 https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...656e1b9b15.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca12bcd798.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6601e3b660.jpg NCR up 179 on the day before, 4A up 41. But the biggest rises were in Central Luzon, up 224 and in the CAR, up 168. The NCR, 4A and Central Luzon together accounted for 83.4% of national new cases. The top 6 regions 92.7%. Unidentified was the 11th largest region! For the NCR there were 13 of its cities in the top 20 urban areas. The biggest changes on yesterday were in QC, up 125, Marikina 123, Navotas 54 and Pasig 53. Going down were Caloocan by 118, Pasay 113, Malabon 96. Tiny San Juan dropped 31. Muntinlupa was unchanged. Provincially Bulacan was up by 91 on yesterday's figures. Cavite and Batangas were mainly unchanged. Rizal and Laguna showed small rises. Benguet was up 64. For its capital Baguio City had 18 cases on March 23 but more at 89 yesterday. In the Central Visayas Cebu City had 57 on March 23 then 56 yesterday. Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities combined 37 followed by 70 yesterday. The three cities at a lower than usual 56% of the region's total yesterday. Davao City had 16 then only 12 yesterday. OCTA have put out a report showing the significant case rises in many provinces in N and Central Luzon. Batangas especially and Pampanga both showing greater rises than those provinces in the new NCR plus bubble area. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1d0996110d.jpg A serious situation in the NCR with ICU capacity at 71% use, positivity at over 15%. Reproductive rate at about 2. Attack rate about 26 per 100k. Still low compared to many UK areas which are still between 25 and 50, but the UK is trending down. A two week GCQ plus in the NCR+ bubble certainly won't be enough! https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...57e89a3e76.jpg NCR cases now well above the previous peak. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The UK is averaging 1.6 million tests a day so a few thousand difference a day is doing nothing.
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Re: NCR llockdown
As I wrote before I strongly believe that a realistic number of daily SARS 2 new cases is many, many, more times greater than the published numbers. MM and environs has a large proportion of the population under 16, who for the most part do not present symptoms. Overcrowding in the barrios is a recipe for super spreaders and I wonder how many do not come forward having known symptoms.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12987395)
The UK is averaging 1.6 million tests a day so a few thousand difference a day is doing nothing.
Interesting that lab based PCR testing in the UK is trending at only about 280k a day out of a capacity of 760k. Here the DOH only count that type of testing, now running at between 30 and 40k a day. No data available for other testing here. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing Still a big difference, but then the UK has more infection to find. The estimate for England as a whole now is 1 in 340.currently. For the Philippines that would equate to over 320k cases. Officially national active cases here are now at 86k. But for the NCR plus area I think we are now much closer to the UK high prevalence areas in N and Central England. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d95ad44643.jpg Question is has this country any ability to greatly increase testing of all types and its abysmal tracing? Aiming for 50k or so a day lab PCR s is all I think they can do and then add to that other rapid testing. It will find more infections than 1,500 a day if we add in the other tests and improve the bad situation. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 12987492)
As I wrote before I strongly believe that a realistic number of daily SARS 2 new cases is many, many, more times greater than the published numbers. MM and environs has a large proportion of the population under 16, who for the most part do not present symptoms. Overcrowding in the barrios is a recipe for super spreaders and I wonder how many do not come forward having known symptoms.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a record 8,773. 6 labs did not report. Backlog of over 3k cases added to the testing of 35.5k individuals which gave a higher positivity of 16.1%. Tests in preparation at 41.8k.
Deaths 56 with 7 of them RDs. So active cases now at a record 99,891. Severe at 799, down 25..but critical up 66 at 799. Only those who make it to a proper hospital! Location detail: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2ad1f01e7b.jpg Bicol 32, other Mindanao 101, OFW 27 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8ca8193176.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...edb60da8d0.jpg Just a strange coincidence that the figures for QC and Paranaque are exactly the same as the day before? DOH site not loading at present for me to check. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...664eb36b59.jpg Regionally the NCR added over 1,100 cases and gave 55.8% of the national total. A little less than the day before. Region 4A at 16.7% was about the same as the previous day. Total for the two areas then 72.5%. All the other top regions had more cases, with Central Luzon's share up to 9.3% .......except for the CAR where cases fell. Its place in the top 6 was taken by Western Visayas, where cases doubled. The top 6 made up 93.5%, a little more than the day before. In the NCR its cities took the top 13 places in the top 20 table .Nearly all cities had more cases except Marikina, Paranaque and Quezon City...but the last two need to be checked as their numbers are exactly the same as for March 24. The NCR R number estimated at a lower 1.91, down from 1.99, following the new restrictions. Not that significant when NCR positivity is about 18%. Latest figure for NCR ICU use 74%, up from 71% on March 23. Provincially big increases were reported from Cavite, with 166 more than the day before, and Pampanga which added 116 and more than doubled its cases. Bulacan's number fell slightly but Laguna, Rizal and Batangas all had more cases. Cebu City at 125, double the number for March 23. Also notable Santiago City in Isabela at 92. You may have heard that lists are being drawn up to prosecute Mayors who have "jumped the gun" and had vaccinations; Then we have this: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2 The local mayor where we live has just got the virus, and this is a low virus area. They are very vulnerable, have to meet a lot of people. On barangays again, an OCTA report: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9462c79fd8.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6752539662.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fa255bacfe.jpg QC, Paranaque and Taguig have the most barangays in this list. However Taguig are disputing their figure for the leading barangay here, Fort Bonifacio, and say it should be 166 not 342, Knowing the Paranaque ones a little I am not surprised. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday the DOH announced close to 10k daily cases, a record. Nearly half were from past testing. The most recent 32k tests gave a record 17.3% positivity. Tests coming along are at 40.8k.
Now over 109k active cases, another high. Deaths 54 with 22 RDs. Deaths which reflect the situation many weeks ago, one which was slowly deteriorating though largely unrecognized. Severe at 872, up 73. Critical down 36 at 763. NCR Isolation bed use up to 68%. ICU at 74%. Location detail: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d3167fc919.jpg MIM 41, other Mindanao 76, OFW 25 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...df3476db78.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...623e27580b.jpg Unknown 10 https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...437063ae4c.jpg Regionally the biggest percentage rises on the day before came from regions well away from the NCR, although as usual it had over 60% of cases.They rose on the day by 30%. Illocos, new entrant to the top 6, had a 56% increase, Cagayan Valley by 42 and Central VIsayas by 40%. CAR had fewer cases as did W Visayas. Both out of the top 6 regions. NCR with 4A and Central Luzon...almost the NCR plus bubble area.... had 92% of national cases. For the NCR QC and Manila together had one third of the new cases. QC alone recorded 15% more cases, but case numbers from Manila were largely unchanged. For the other cities there were some big changes on the day before: Starting from the top there were big rises in Makati and Taguig, adding 156 and 208 cases on the day before. Further down the much smaller populated Navotas added 162. The biggest fall was in Malabon, recording 135 less. Caloocan had 71 less and Pasay 62 less. Tiny San Juan and Pateros had 70 and 61 less. Provincially Bulacan showed the biggest daily change with an increase of 40% on the day. to post 594 new cases. Cavite was just in front of Bulacan with 681 cases, an increase of 21%. The other large 4A provinces by population all had smaller increases. In Central Luzon Pampanga recorded 32% less cases yesterday. In the Central Visayas Cebu City posted a few less cases at 117 and together with LapuLapu and Mandaue Cities the 3 contributed 57% of the region's cases for the day. Elsewhere Baguio City counted only 10 new cases. In Isabela, Santiago City posted another high number....81 cases. Davao City had 45, higher than recently. Distributing the meagre Chinese vaccines around the country: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/26/...covid-19-shots NCR, Cebu yes. But why Davao? Last two days the Davao region had 39 and 96 cases. Hospitals: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/26/...-marikina-city Marikina, one of the smaller NCR cities, having a hard time. But they have a good idea on isolation when there are many positive or suspect cases in a household: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...cid=uxbndlbing The Philippines now at 11th in the international new cases table. Generally neglected in international analysis of the pandemic, except for its long lockdown in 2020, it will now unfortunately start to get much more attention. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cdacfab4d8.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another total just under 10k, with a larger than normal 11 labs not reporting. The total included a 4k backlog. Positivity maintaining over 16%. Tests coming along 40.8k.
Active cases now at 118k and supposedly 827 in both Severe and Critical states in the main hospitals, down 45 and up 64 on the day before. Deaths 10 with 4 of them RDs. Some location detail: The two main regions for cases, NCR and 4A, both had less cases.. NCR had 151 less and 4A , more significantly, 181 less. CAR stood out by more than doubling its number on the previous day from 140 to 361. Central Luzon and W Visayas also increased their cases modestly. Ilocos fell on the previous day.. Davao region had more. In the NCR the main city of note was Marikina, with a rise of 240 cases on the previous day to over 500. Other cities with rises were Manila, Mandaluyong, Paranaque, San Juan, Valenzuala, Pasay and Pateros. The biggest faller was Taguig, from 425 to 310. QC, Pasig, Navotas, Muntinlupa, Malabon and Makati also had less new cases. Provinciially Rizal , Batangas and Pampanga provinces all had significant increases on the day. Cavite and Bulacan both had significantly less cases. Cases in Laguna also fell a little.. In the Central Visayas Cebu City with 126 cases and together with the two other main cities on the island gave 205 cases, about 56% ,of the region's case total. Baguio City was at 69, 59 more than the day before and Davao City had 49, just 4 more than the day before. Unsurprisingly a week of so called ECQ is starting tomorrow, in the NCR + bubble area. Standing out to me is that a curfew starts at 6pm!? https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/27/...easter-sources The effect on the economy will be minimal as it's the Easter week. In fact with people mainly not able to go to their Provinces of origin there might be more shoppers around than usual. Not what the authorities want! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Complete DOH charts for yesterday's cases:
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3cfc51d554.jpg OFW 30, E Visayas 26, other Mindanao 69 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2d39b60a84.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a7086072bc.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7442f3e87c.jpg Top 20 urban areas: First 11 places in top 20 urban areas to NCR cities. Followed by Antioplo, Rizal 150, Bacoor, Cavite 130, Cainta, Rizal 117, Imus, Cavite 88. Plus 3 more NCR cities. Also Santiago City, Isabela,115 with 45% of Isabela's cases. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a3f3b06e5b.jpg Interesting Dr John You tube talk on virus mutations, including that vaccinations can produce more. He also has another talk on a promising anti viral in preparation. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Here is Dr John on anti virals, not an alternative to vaccinations but still could be a game changer.
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Re: NCR llockdown
do not be surprised to see ncr figures fall and regions rise as the virus is exported back to the provinces for the holy week , last buses leave tonight at 21;00 We will then be told this move is a master stroke to curb the virus in the ncr......until,they all get back in two weeks time!!
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Re: NCR llockdown
There are only 4 regions, all in Mindanao, where recent positivity is below the 5% WHO standard for control. Seven regions are between 10 and 20% and Cagayan is worse than the NCR's 20%. So picking up the virus in the provinces is also quite possible.
Leisure trips out of the bubble are stated to be banned. Does that include Easter trips to the provincial home? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Again nearly 10k new cases announced...9,475 with 7 labs not reporting. Positivity up to 19.8%. Test results cannot keep up. Nearly 4,300 results from a backlog. The DOH made the backlog figure harder to calculate recently. You wonder whether that was on purpose.
The latest tests were down at 26.2k and 38k are said to be in progress. Deaths 11 and of those 4 were RDs. A never ending endemic problem of the wrong tagging of deaths. Another recovery day with 22k. Active cases 105,586 . A 44.5% increase in a week! Now 845 Severe and 739 Critical. Up 18 and down 88. Some location detail: NCR down 84 cases at 5,120, 4A up a little at 1,598. Central Luzon was also up a little to 981. The main mover was Cagayan Valley with 65 or 19% more cases. NCR at 54%, 4A at 16.9% of national cases. Add Bulacan and you get the "bubble" at 75% of cases. The six highest case regions, including Central Luzon, Cagayan Valley, Central Visayas and CAR accounted for 92.5% of national cases. In the NCR half of the cities increased and half decreased. Mainly by a few cases, although QC had 15% more cases to report and reached over 1k at 1,093. The big exception was Marikina which only reported 94 cases compared to 503 the day before. In the provinces big increases were reported in Bulacan and Cavite, 117 and 121 more. Batangas had a small increase. Laguna had 59 less. Rizal 52 less. In the Central Visayas the three largest Cebu cities gave 53% of the region's cases, with Cebu City reported 119. Baguio City had 42. Davao City 30 new cases. Santiago City, Isabela had 82 new cases. The one week ECQ for the NCR+ bubble starts today and it's surely going to be extended. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...389225ab71.jpg The next country in our sights is the USA!! Compared with our neighbour Indonesia it's only having nearly half of our new daily cases now. Yes, more deaths per head, but crucially it has vaccinated 3.9% of its population compared to only 0.5% here. The Philippines president has said the country has not yet purchased any foreign vaccines. |
Re: NCR llockdown
USA Showing 38305 as I write.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Oh yes, thanks B ,I forgot the Worldmeters is real time updated. USA going to be about 60k. Not yet found a table which gives new cases for the last 24 hours.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 12988580)
There are only 4 regions, all in Mindanao, where recent positivity is below the 5% WHO standard for control. Seven regions are between 10 and 20% and Cagayan is worse than the NCR's 20%. So picking up the virus in the provinces is also quite possible.
Leisure trips out of the bubble are stated to be banned. Does that include Easter trips to the provincial home? |
Re: NCR llockdown
"buses out of PTEX to the provinces were jammed full for the allowable limits last ones left circa 21:00 last night" I hope your earlier prediction is wrong but I'm fearful you will be proved right. Maybe if COVID has been exported to the provinces the victims may not be able to return to MM. Only time will tell.
Take particular care everybody. As aside note. Now that I am restricted to the Condo Building, and the gym is now closed I have a devised a variation on my fitness programme. I walk along all the levels of the building and it comes to approximately one mile. How about that for a piece of useless information! |
Re: NCR llockdown
For some time many officials in the provinces have been uneasy about the IATF opening up domestic travel. They will be livid about what they are getting this Easter. Particularly as tourism, which can be more easily vetted and helps the local economy, is off from the bubble.
Btw B you can go out as a 65+ "for essential purposes". Unfortunately those 3 words are often left out. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Best to look at the world table yesterday , Phils 10th for new cases:
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9079966f05.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Complete DOH tables:
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ef08ba550c.jpg MIM 33, other Mindanao 81 https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5356873242.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...28ffbcc0da.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e8f99ba1cd.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...410a7f9d15.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...357407da67.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Raffin,
Thanks so really nothing has changed for this old fart then. |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases for Monday March 29 were just over 10k, 3 labs not reporting ,but half were from a backlog of previous results. Positivity 18%, down a little. Tests coming along 33.9k, as testing is always down at weekends. We will see what effect Easter has. Many more people are at home, but then the testers will want to be also.
Deaths 16, with 11 RDs. Active cases at 115.5k. Hospital: Severe down 36 at 809 and Critical up 70 also at 809. Location detail: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...33169e69e1.jpg E Visayas 19, OFW 18, other Mindanao 75 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9b67c9d983.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...67f5406f85.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...998bb492f0.jpg The NCR added 300 plus cases on the day before and was at 54.3% of national cases. The biggest increase was 600 more cases for Region 4A. Cagayan Valley also increased, by 88 cases. Central Visayas and Central Luzon both had less cases. The NCR together with 4A and Central Luzon made 84.7% of national cases. The NCR bubble area, leaving out Batangas, Quezon and only including Bulacan provinces from Central Luzon was at 77.5% of national cases. The top 6 provinces, which included Western Visayas and left out the CAR, gave 94% of all new cases. In the NCR Marikina, after a low record the day before, went right back up to 457 cases. Other notable increases were in Taguig, Mandaluyong,, Pasay, Valenzuala, Navotas and Malabon. The biggest fall was in Pasig, down 160 cases. Significant falls also from Makati and Paranaque. Provincially Laguna stood out, adding 279 onto the number of cases for the previous day. Cavite added 182 cases. Pampanga added 96 cases. Rizal 42. Bulacan reported 115 less cases. NCR cities captured the top 12 positions in the top 20 urban areas table, and had 14 in the top 20. The other places were filled by Cavite and Rizal cities, except for Tuguegarao City in Cagayan at 18th with 109 cases. That city featured some months ago regularly, now returning with more cases. Cebu City had only 98 cases and together with the two other main Cebu cities added 174 cases, 58% of the Central Visayas total. Baguio City 61 and Davao City 30 new cases. Hospital data for NCR: ICU 76% occupancy Isolation 70% The President has announced revised Quarantines for April: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b3f1a2ac66.jpg ECQ for the NCR+ bubble under review after April 4 but is obviously going to be extended. The situation is not likely to improve, Easter reduces mobility and testing will be affected too. After April 4 a more normal situation will occur in which to assess progress, if any. Better to just announce that now, To help people affected by the NCR bubble ECQ unspent money (i think it was 20-25%) from Bayanihan 2 will be used. Little cash but more "in kind" aid will be added. Meanwhile no progress with a Bayanihan 3 package, which will obviously be needed soon: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...94784e7536.jpg |
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