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Re: NCR llockdown
Last day of January and a total over 2k, the second day in a row. And a higher 10 labs did not report. Over 400 backlog of results, which were at a higher positivity, 6.1%, than for the day before. Tests coming along 32.3k.
Location information again not given.....we must wait a day. Deaths high again at 80, bringing the case fatality rate up again to 2.04%. Mass recoveries added to the recovery of the Active total. They were up 4k on last Sunday at 11.7k. So the Active total is now at 27,318, over 400 less than the number announced last Sunday. Severe condition patients now 765, down 11...critical at 902, down 59. Detail on Jan 30 cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8259d085e4.jpg Plus Bicol 36. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bff2f8150a.jpg Plus Las Pinas 19, Muntinlupa 18. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7b751ab311.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b4f92033b8.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...aa5ba95c8e.jpg NCR 23.4%, 4A 10.3%...total 33.7%..10 NCR cities in the top 20...so a third of cases from the former main epicenters Notable that QC had 27% of the NCR cases. But provincially Davao, Cebu and IloIlo again with large numbers. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d56cdf8894.jpg IloIlo province chart shows a big recent spike: But the chart for the city shows much smaller recent increases: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7516d0e6ce.jpg For the final week of January average daily cases were down by 8.4% on the previous week at 1,692. But average daily deaths went up from 44 to 69. However larger case numbers for the last two days indicate that the Xmas holiday effect is now being shown. A week or two later than many predicted. Perhaps the holiday period for many this year has been extended due to lower economic activity levels and there are more difficulties facing people wanting to be tested. Testing stays in the 20 t0 30k range each day and that needs to be increased somewhat to pick up the increased regional spread of the virus. National positivity never went much below the WHO control standard of 5% in January and is now rising. At present the large regional numbers are coming from the capital cities but the recent figures from IloIlo and the showing of numbers from smaller towns in other provinces over recent days show the virus may be generally rising in smaller provincial conurbations. Not a good picture when vaccines are coming late to the country and the vaccination programme will be more difficult and slower to implement with regional spread now firmly established. A recent Dr John update with some interesting information on Wuhan and vaccine politics. Can't report tomorrow but hope to catch up on Wednesday. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The BBC are reporting that scientists are concerned that the UK variant has acquired a mutation similar to the South African and Brazilian variants. Not good news but shows viruses are constantly changing.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12967180)
The BBC are reporting that scientists are concerned that the UK variant has acquired a mutation similar to the South African and Brazilian variants. Not good news but shows viruses are constantly changing.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12967180)
The BBC are reporting that scientists are concerned that the UK variant has acquired a mutation similar to the South African and Brazilian variants. Not good news but shows viruses are constantly changing.
https://www.newscientist.com/article...riant-spreads/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by spouse of scouse
(Post 12967265)
Yes, I was reading that earlier. It's a very opportunistic virus as the acquisition of this mutation shows :(
https://www.newscientist.com/article...riant-spreads/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
Announced Feb 2 were another 1,583 positive tests, but a high 13 labs did not report. Test results running a backlog of about 600. Positivity 5.6%. Tests coming along 23.7k.
Regional distribution a state secret until Feb 3. Deaths 67 with 2RDs. Which reminds me that we also lost easily accessible detail on the regional distribution of deaths some time ago. Case fatality up to 2.06%. Now 820 patients in severe and the same number in critical condition. Critical exceeding severe, which has usually been reported, always seemed strange to me. An explanation could be that many people avoid hospital here until they are seriously ill? Cases from Feb 1: National total 1,658 with 4.4% positivity. Five labs did not report. Backlog of about 600. Deaths 58. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...40bc26c96f.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e3452710b2.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0bb500a304.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...23aad65509.jpg Iba, Zambales...pop about 50k. NCR 24.2%, Region 4A 12.7%..so total 36.9% from the two original epicenters. Cebu, 3 cities and province continuing high numbers. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/01/...ome-sequencing Phils needing to improve genome testing. Last, the latest national case chart: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5cb2ad6958.jpg One hopes the latest rising trend is soon moderated but experience with covid shows that more often than not once the curve starts to rise it continues for some time. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...dc8911c3d4.jpg For deaths some recent flattening of the falling curve. Many of the deaths announced in the last few weeks actually occurred back in July and August.. This can be seen as the chart bars are well above the trend line (calculated from date of announcement) for those months and below after that. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Lockdown can now be imposed just about anywhere....judging by Silang Cavite. An area of Cavite with a population of over 200k, but with a built up area with a fraction of that population.
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6375b7d323.jpg Infections going up by 5.3% for month of January See more local covid stats at https://covid19stats.ph/stats Driving past the built up area of Silang on Monday, all entrances to it from the diversion road/by pass were barred to non residents without a "health certificate", that euphemistic term usually meaning a covid test certificate. Something close to it from a doctor anyway. In total the town has about 8 roads to the rest of the municipal area and I assume all of them similarly barred. Having a number of long established useful businesses a town often visited by people from Tagaytay, where there are mainly hotels and restaurants. Thinking about it it's a lot easier to isolate this sort of place which is off a diversion road than one without a by pass. The curve above looks bad but infections rose by only 5.3% in January. Elsewhere in Cavite towards Manila Bacoor's rose by 6.8%. The Calabarzon Region rose by 7.8%. The national rise was 10.9%. So why a lockdown like that? It just shows you how much power individual mayors have and something to look out for elsewhere as new infections rise again. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,266 new cases announced. Tests done 24.8k and a positivity of 5.7%. Seven labs not reporting. In the pipeline a low 23.7k tests.
Locations tomorrow. Deaths 68 with 19 of them RDs. Severe 755 and Critical 786..yesterday it was 820 each category. Location detail for Feb 2 cases: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fa229f78bd.jpg Other Mindanao 14 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...41c629078f.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...746434eaf1.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...327d45633e.jpg Central Visayas was top region with 17.2%, followed by NCR at 16.5 and 4A at 15.4. So both gave 31.9% of cases. NCR had only 6 cities in the top 20. Cebu and Davao Cities with over 100 cases each. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...30a81a6046.jpg Not many regions under 5%. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...343c659396.jpg Testing slightly higher than before the holidays, but lower than in September. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/03/...ontliners-athl More additions to the priority list . Under pressure as they won't have enough vaccine for most of the general public for quite a while. More complication for the LGUs. What does "economic front liners mean"? Then we have the Health Secretary telling LGUs to plan for those in priority groups rejecting vaccination. Sensible but will add further complication and lead to distrust that it is fair. https://covid19stats.ph/stats A tip: to find stats quicker for a location google the place with the site name first. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Announced yesterday another 1,590 cases. Lately the numbers averaging under 2k, but testing numbers very variable. These came from only 24.7k tests. Positivity at 5.8%. Tests in process a much higher 31.6k.
Areas where positivity lately is under the recognised control level of 5% account for about 20% of the population only. Areas where positivity is more than 10% for about 15%. The rest of the population, over 70m, live in areas where recent positivity has been between 5 and 10%. Yet the daily positivity figures of tests done are steady lately at only around 6%. Many more cases now being missed as the virus spreads regionally. Deaths at 55 with another large number of RDs, 41. As the pandemic continues no improvement in the accuracy of data collection of deaths. Case fatality up at 2.07%. Severe 754, Critical 787..no change on the day before. Location detail of cases for Feb 3: Viewed the GMA evening news bulletin earlier this week. They only gave the national daily case figures announced that day. No recent regional data. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...358e1852bd.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ac0ac3a95b.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a9cfe6b8d8.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...54c870aa50.jpg NCR 29.1%, 4A 10.4%..the two added 39.5%. Ten NCR cities in the top 20. Central Visayas second region to the NCR at 16.1%. Cebu and Davao del Sur leading provincially and their capital cities too in the urban areas table: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...27e239b704.jpg Cebu cases rapid growth lately. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6e978fe7b1.jpg Davao City case growth levelling lately. Again on regional testing.. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/04/...vid-19-alkalde Twenty percent positivity from the mass testing of the 270 vendors! As with Manila in the earlier days of the pandemic these outdoor workers in Passi were presumably not able to get themselves tested, even if they are showing symptoms. Now some Manila cities offer free testing. Labs have doubled nationwide over the last few months as the virus spreads regionally but most will be private and not affordable by the likes of street vendors. Silang, Cavite update: I posted about a surprising medium level lockdown on this Cavite market town on Feb 3. Looking at the latest available DOH figures on Covid19 stats the whole area added about 30 cases over the last week, 27 Jan to 2 Feb. Concerning as our local Cavite market town, though with a quarter of Silang's population, added only 2 in the same period, but does it merit such strict controls on entry? It is possible that they have found extra cases on top of those announced, which are yet to be validated by the DOH. But looking at Google results it did a similar thing last year. Then the reason was an outbreak at a PNP training facility on the edge of its area far away from the town. The municipal website useless with its latest news from October 2020. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A higher 1,590 new cases recorded yesterday, 6 labs not reporting. Positivity of 5.1% from 27.9k tests. Backlog reported was nearly 500. Tests coming along at a higher 34.3k.
Deaths 61 with a large number of recovery deaths (RDs)...47. No change in numbers severe/critical....754/788. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/05/...late-reporting So 74% of recent deaths from March to October. That's a big data quality issue. Due to "Data harmonization with the PSA"? A vague explanation which does not address the large number wrongly tagged, often for many months. Only ABS-CBN looking into this area, but even they don't seem to want to fully investigate. Case locations from Feb 4: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5700931855.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2a46acc8a0.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8ae6065815.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d0d1505882.jpg Central Visayas top region with 16% and Cebu Province with the great majority of those. Cebu City with 60% of the province's cases. Kalinga and Isabela in N. Luzon each with over 100 cases. NCR 14.1%, 4A 9.2%...the two together a low 23.3%. Only 6 NCR cities in the top 20 urban areas. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...88Jhofnlly5Orz Dr John has been on a vitamin D crusade lately. Two studies add more to the case that it plays an important role in covid outcomes and also general immunity. Likely to be deficient the darker your skin and the less you are exposed to sunlight, with that being much more important than diet. So many urban Filipinos likely to be deficient and to a lesser extent us Expats here if we keep indoors too much. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/05/...inside-vehicle I thought this silly attempt to class the insides of private vehicles as public spaces had gone away months ago but it seems the authoritarian government here has been busy and are bringing it back, Let's see if they get to fining rather than just warning couples in their car for not wearing a mask. I pity the police and other enforcers here. Dark tints will make enforcement even more difficult so I expect they are busy studying bringing in a law on that. The more so given the newly announced child car seat legislation. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH reported another 1,941 cases yesterday, 4 labs not submitting. With a nearly 500 backlog positivity at 4.7% from 29.5k tests. Tests coming along 35.6k
Deaths 52 but most of them RDs, many of which could be months old. Severe cases 755, critical 791. Very little change. Detail for Feb 5 cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...43e5b20a11.jpg Pus other Mindanao 32 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1e458536b1.jpg Malabon 21, Las Pinas 20 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2f5df07d09.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e547014e46.jpg NCR led the regions with a higher than recent 27% of cases and 11 cities in the top 20. 4A had a lower 8.6%, so the two together at 35.6% in line with recent numbers. Five other regions with more than 100 cases, Provincially Cebu and IloIlo stand out with both having over100 cases. Cebu City had a lower than recent 44% of its provincial cases. IloIlo's cases mostly came from Passi and IloIlo cities. Davao City with an unusually low 25 cases. The DOH report one case of UK variant from Cebu province. A mild case. No details on travel history. They still say there is no community transmission of the UK variant in the country. Others experts disagree, especially in relation to the recent rapid increases in Cebu. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5cc1d49cda.jpg Cebu province If the mainstream media could report on Cebu case numbers it might alarm some viewers and that may be one of the reasons behind the DOH's decision to withhold reginal data from daily publication. Cases in Mountain Province are far away and easily contained. But Cebu is more central in the country and with a higher population. But their greatest fear is the UK variant taking hold in Manila. https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...accine-ph.html The Russian Sputnik V vaccine had a bad start but peer reviewed data from large scale Moscow trials has been published in The Lancet, and the results are good. Russia has a long cavalier record when it comes to developing vaccines but one thing I read in an article I posted a link to in this thread last year was that they are not mandatory there. I am not so sure about China on that. The Philippines is still in negotiations about getting the Sinovac vaccine, with its worse effectivity compared with Sputnik V, which is possibly also cheaper. Looks like we will have to buy some Sinovac for political reasons, but the Russian option looks much better. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yes the Russian vaccine sounds good but I think the big downside is that the two jabs consists of two different vaccines which would take a certain degree of organisation. Not a strong suite in most third world countries.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,790 new cases, 8 labs not reporting. Over 400 backlog of results included. Positivity from 26.1k tests was 5.1%. Tests coming along a higher 32.9k.
Mass recovery day and 11.4k announced. Deaths at 70 and most were again RDs. It seems that the DOH validation programme is in top gear now after an Xmas lull in finding and correcting these wrongly tagged deaths. Why oh why the fault in the reporting system cannot be fixed by now beats me! https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f7ba0ec271.jpg Deaths levelling somewhat lately. The gap between the bars and trend line is due to both late reporting and RDs and shows many recently announced deaths moved back in time. Case fatality has crept up to 2.08%. Active cases down to 26,333 from 27,318 a week ago, a fall of 3.6%. Severe 764 and critical 790. Severe up 10. Detail for Feb 6 cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...87fba30009.jpg Plus Zamboanga 19, Bicol 17 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6d5a9d93be.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b5672e16fe.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ed79b8c264.jpg NCR 18% and 4A 3% adding to a 31% contribution to national cases. NCR had 8 cities in the top 20. Central Visayas had well over 300 cases (18% of national cases), most of which came from Cebu with the city giving half of those. Rizal and Davao del Sur provinces also both over 100. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...13654291c1.jpg Cebu City showing rapid case growth this year. Some excuse if mostly due to the UK variant...otherwise you wonder what sending in the general last year achieved long term? At present the media hamstrung in their reporting by a lack of daily statistics on all regions. The mainstream media can only do an item if some confirmation comes in on the UK variant's presence there and then they have an opportunity to include some statistics. Over the past week average daily cases up to 1,715 from 1,692. Reproduction number at 0.99. Looks not too bad, doing a lot better than Indonesia, but testing here seemingly cannot get to 40k a day and above which it needs to do to find more regional cases. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d0ec4b0ec0.jpg New cases recently peaked at well over 10k a day. Testing is at half the rate of the Philippines per head. Taking a markedly different approach to the Philippines Indonesia targeting young people with the Chinese Sinovac vaccine. The country has a somewhat older population than the Philippines. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55620356 Vaccination programme has just started, with under 6k doses done in a country of 280m. I |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,890 new cases announced with 5 labs not reporting results. Positives reported in recent tests were added to by a backlog of nearly 780 results. Positivity 6.1%. Tests coming along at 33.8k.
Deaths 52 with 46 of them RDs. Continuing the recent high numbers of RDs found. Severe at 756, critical 784, both down a little on the previous day. Detail from Feb 7 cases: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4a31fd80a6.jpg Plus Bicol 22 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bac6f0c17b.jpg Plus Mandaluyong 13 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7daeab6b8f.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b1abd53944.jpg NCR gave 21.2% and 4A 12.6% of cases. Both together 33.8% of national cases. The NCR with 8 cities in the top 20 urban areas. Provincially Cebu continues to lead with over 300 cases and over half of them from Cebu City. Plenty of selective statistics from the Philippines Health Secretary here: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...million/story/ Most covid statisticians avoid comparing active cases due to widely differing definitions of recovery. On deaths per million notice he is comparing with Europe and the US and not with neighbouring countries...Malaysia 27 per million and Thailand 1, compared to he Philippines with over 100......the country with the youngest population too. Yes Indonesia is worse all round (though quicker on vaccination) but Myanmar is a much less advanced country which is testing at a much lower rate and has larger areas than in the Philippines that are not controlled by the government. And of course the numbers of micro states like Singapore cannot be compared. https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-in-manila-doh No information on contacts....,,.there must be many as he has been in Manila since November. Continuing silence on that from the authorities over the next few days will probably mean the UK variant is starting to circulate in Manila. Last, the latest national and NCR charts: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2d39fd2e6f.jpg National, showing concerning recent case growth from regions away from the NCR and around.. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e2c53745a9.jpg NCR flat |
Re: NCR llockdown
Something I have noticed and is only an opinion, the South African variant consists of the N501Y mutation plus the E484K mutation. The N501Y mutation is also found in the UK variant. It makes me wonder if N501Y is the initial change which once widely circulated further mutates adding the E484K mutation. What I'm getting at, could the so called UK variant popping up be a natural progression and largely home grown. So in places like the Philippines and for that matter the USA where there is next to no genomic monitoring happening could this account for the sudden uptick in their cases. But because the UK initially identified the mutation will be forever blamed for it. Like the American flu of 1918 introduced to Europe by the troop ships first recorded in the Spanish press.
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Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH announced 1,235 cases yesterday, 8 labs did not report, a higher number than of late. Positivity at 6.3% from only 16.4k tests. Tests coming along a bit higher at 21.3k.
Deaths 65 including another large RD list of 59. Case fatality rate 2.09, getting closer to world average of 2.1 -2.2. Severe cases 758, critical 788. Little daily change but a lot less in these categories compared to 6 months ago. Details on Feb 8 cases: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...954b4ab098.jpg Bicol 27 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...54b37d63dd.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca34741929.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d7a715a1b8.jpg NCR 23.4% and 4A 9.9% of total cases. The two together 33.3%, one third of national cases. Central Visayas gave 21.15% with nearly all from Cebu province, and 60% of those from Cebu City. CAR, where the UK variant is "locally" transmitting adding 141 to its over 12k cases in an area of lower population. While Davao's number was again over 100, the City was only 47. The increases there moderating recently. The recent increases in Cebu are of concern and speculation that there may be a variant circulating there has not yet been laid to rest by the DOH. Dec 24 -30 saw only 30 cases in Cebu City. Then 62 came in the next week. The first week of 2021 saw over 150 and the week before last 851. For the week starting Feb 4 we already see 775 cases with a day to go. The rapid case rise has led to suspicions that the UK variant was involved as a trademark of it is a slow start then after a short period of time a steep rise. UK total cases rose by 70% in a month late last year as the variant took over. Reports of a case in Cebu, now wrongly located, added to the suspicions, as has the DOH decision to delay the announcement of daily regional figures by one day. My explanation of all this is just that low testing and/or lax controls in Cebu allowed the increase to occur in the run up to Xmas. The DOH, probably already getting pressure from government on high figures from Davao also started to get it on Cebu, as the province was visited with great publicity last year by high profile members of the IATF and whatever changes they instituted there obviously did not prevent another big rise in cases. Remember the NCR or Mega Manila was not counted by the DOH as a single location in their top 5. So seeing the two main provincial cities every night on the TV with high cases was too much for the government. So they clamped down on announcing the daily top 5 numbers, using the excuse that the public was finding them "confusing". The thing is positivity rates in Cebu's three main cities have recently been between 10 and 15% so more testing is in order to prevent their hospitals reaching full capacity. Over the past month hospital occupancy there has risen from 25 to 40%.and a rise to 60 or 70% must be avoided. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...accines/story/ An interesting report from GMA on a vaccine "dummy run". |
Re: NCR llockdown
I had my first dose of the Astra Zeneca today, second dose is scheduled for the 24th April. The UK total should hit 13 million today.
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Re: NCR llockdown
New cases yesterday announced were a slightly higher 1,345 from 27.5k tests with positivity at 5.6%. Tests on 31.4k coming along.
Deaths at a shocking 114. GMA says 9 RDs included and ABS-CBN says 59..I will go with the latter as they often correct their news whereas GMA do not. But also there were nine recoveries that were previously tagged as deaths, information reported by both news organisations. Severe cases 755, Critical 785...not much change despite the deaths as many are from months ago and some recent ones are obviously not from hospitals. Case fatality rising further to 2.11%..nearly at world average at about 2.19%. For comparison Spain at 2.1%, France 2.35 and UK 2.88%. Cases from Feb 9: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5560b64e7d.jpg Other Mindanao 18 https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f62593c864.jpg Las Pinas 14 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7787480b42.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f3f623a353.jpg NCR with 26.4% of national cases, 4A with 10.4%..combined they made up a higher 36.8% of total cases. Ten NCR cities in the top 20. Muntinlupa with a seldom seen 20 total. Central Visayas again with a high number, nearly all were from Cebu and half of them were from Cebu City. Update on Silang, Cavite: latest available figures show 27 cases in the week up to and incl Feb 8. No case explosion then. I don't know if the surprise entry restriction is still in place. The hunt for the Cebu UK variant case... https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...om-cebu/story/ So the DOH finally admits he spent some time in Cebu before coming to Manila and testing positive for the UK variant. Now missing! So did he start it going around Cebu and contributing to the rapid case rise there? He was here way back in November and we know that that variant is more highly transmissable. We await the Cebu genome results. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...als-doh/story/ The Philippines isn't the only country in the world with bone shaking roads and I haven't read about this issue coming up elsewhere. Is this another example of the military here focusing on very small risks too much? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Congratulations. I'm not hiding my breath for a date for my first jab. perhaps sometime in 2022.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 12970433)
Congratulations. I'm not hiding my breath for a date for my first jab. perhaps sometime in 2022.
Here it's going to depend on the performance of the LGUs..most cities will do well, especially in the NCR, but smaller urban areas and those remote probably won't. As with most government programmes here eg the covid financial help, many will not get it, and we know that some are hesitant anyway. Getting up to 70-80% will be difficult. I've had two texts lately reminding me to get my child immunized against polio, rubella etc! Think they will have to do a lot of this hopefully better targeted texting in the future to get more vaccinated. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A little bit of maintenance on the pallet lifter wouldn't go amiss.
thanks for your updates. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Today 1,734 new cases, the Philippines stuck averaging in the upper 1,000s while many countries are experiencing falling cases. Some 200 plus backlog of results coming out. The DOH stopped showing the date of backlogs some months ago, but when they did many cases were months old. Delayed reporting is the hallmark of DOH covid statistics.
Positivity reported at 5.2%. Deaths at 68 with the majority, 53, RDs. Severe 756, critical 787, little change. Detail on Feb 9 cases: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3323343ae1.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2d22ab1858.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9cf2891b34.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...77b3146856.jpg NCR 21.8%, 4A 9.4%. The two combined a lower 31.2% of total cases. NCR cities 10 out of the top 20. Stand out number again from Cebu province and especially Cebu City, which contributed almost 60% of the province number. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/11/...igures-plateau https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8f12f2e34d.jpg National chart. Call that a plateau? Even NCR cases are slightly increasing. "Increasing not as fast nationally"? Compared to April/May 2020? It is nearly. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...D?ocid=BingHPC Slow going on the vaccines. The Philippines reputation as a difficult place to do business (unless you are Chinese, of course) is I think affecting vaccine procurement from European and North American companies. As much as they might want to help a country in need they want to avoid the problems that many companies have here. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I wonder how much of the government's vacillating is just kicking it down the road in the hope of freebies. I know the UK has approaching half a billion doses on order of which they need 150k ish. The rest to be donated to worthy causes. The UK government understands that to fix this problem the whole world must be vaccinated, not just the local population otherwise they will be forever fire fighting.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12970627)
I wonder how much of the government's vacillating is just kicking it down the road in the hope of freebies. I know the UK has approaching half a billion doses on order of which they need 150k ish. The rest to be donated to worthy causes. The UK government understands that to fix this problem the whole world must be vaccinated, not just the local population otherwise they will be forever fire fighting.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ays-doh/story/ Interesting that when Pinoys are surveyed on individual leaders approval rates are around 90%. But locally produced surveys don't look at specific policy areas much, like this. They like something about a leader and that is separated in their minds from policies and achievements? Pushing Chinese, Russian and maybe Indian vaccines with questionable effectivity on the population will not do. Apart from pleading the argument that it's in the developed world's interest the Philippines does have some cards with its international export of labour and its position against China. But its leaders record over the last few years and the increases in military and security spending over health, education etc makes its case for charity difficult. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday the 2k level of new cases breached at 2,022. Four labs did not report. Positive tests included 600 backlog with a positivity of 5.1%. Tests in progress at a higher 35.3k.
Deaths 26 with 11 RDs. Severe and Critical both up a few at 762/796 patients. Detail from Feb 11: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9c902c133c.jpg Bicol 17 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...dedfe19615.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a47b5ec1b8.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...00b092b3ac.jpg NCR at 21.6%, 4A at 10.2%. The two combined at 31.8%, the same as the previous day. Nine NCR cities in the top 20. Valenzuala City of some concern lately to the OCTA expert panel.....increasing cases per head and latest positivity at 14%. Central Visayas with the highest regional contribution yesterday at 27.7%. Nearly all of them from Cebu Province and over 60% of the provincial area from the capital city. Cebu City has the worst new infections per head, but Mandaue, Lapu Lapu and Talisay cities in Cebu are also of concern. Talisay especially showing recent significant case increases. It and Lapu Lapu also have hospital occupancy rising towards levels of concern. Other areas of concern to OCTA with cases are the cities of Passi in IloIlo and Tabuk (Kalinga) in the north. Also CDO City showing increasing positivity at 15%. Davao City new case rise cooling off although hospital occupancy at a relatively high 50%. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/12/...vid-19-variant The UK variant showing up more around the country. Three from Davao and 6 undetermined case locations, The OFW from Cebu who went to Manila to apply again still not traced after staying in QC. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...R?ocid=BingHPC This will slow things down a lot! https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e57f944d8b.jpg Thought this was interesting from a recent Dr John update looking at a UK ONS analysis of cases from the last 3 months. Especially 53% asymptomatic. That's in line with US figures from their CDC last November: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/20/h...ess/index.html |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases Feb 13 were again close to 2k at 1,960, just 3 labs not reporting. Positives 1,413 with a backlog included of over 500 results, positivity 5.4%. Tests in preparation 33k.
Deaths at a much lower 12 with 4 RDs Severe 769, critical 804, again up a little. Details for Feb 12 cases: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b08bb8bd1c.jpg MIMAROPA 23, Other Mindanao 19, OFWs 11 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...da95c60ad9.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...67de0c405a.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...565e1a0357.jpg NCR 21.4%, 4A 9.5%...total 30.9% of national cases, a little lower again. Central Visayas led again at 19.6% and the province of Cebu having the great majority, with 47% of its cases in the capital city, less than the day before. Davao was the fourth highest region with 7.9%. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...049e098841.jpg Cebu City new cases continue to increase at a fast rate. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0da4549ffd.jpg ..whereas in Davao City a downward trend seems firmly established. So national cases here not showing a downward trend, even NCR cases are showing a slight increase recently, and moderate increases can be expected with a new variant likely starting in more than one region, undetected with genomic testing here slow and limited. If the much more spreadable new variant gets hold increases may be much greater. Testing in many areas looks inadequate in both size and scope. Positivity doesn't fall and stays at just over 5%. Yesterday asymptomatic results were again under 10% (8.7%) of those tested , which has usually been the case. The figure from the UK I quoted yesterday was about half of cases there over the last 3 months and there are many other smaller data sets from other countries showing percentages well over 10. So many cases here are not being found. Pressure is also on to open up facilities in time for summer, tourist facilities and cinemas. Even in Cebu, with its fast increasing numbers! https://mb.com.ph/2021/01/12/iatf-ma...-variants-dot/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a log of 1,928 cases, a little fewer than the day before and 5 labs did not report. They included a backlog of results of over 500 out of just over 20k tests with positivity up at 6.9%. There are 33k tests in progress.
Deaths at 8 and one of them was an RD. Severe and Critical both down significantly at 752 and 777. Mass recoveries were 11k, bringing the Active total slightly down, by about 400, on that of a week ago to 25,918. Details from Feb 13 cases: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...12f1732d09.jpg Bicol 29 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1742e942a6.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...74f92c0912.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d35617b889.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...deaf75c893.jpg NCR 24.1% and 4A 8.8%, making 32.9% of national total. The NCR cities made 11 places in the top 20, although mostly in the bottom half. Navotas with an unusually high figure of 33 cases. Central Visayas 15.4%. with Cebu Province having l86 less cases than the day before. Cebu City had just over half of the provincial cases. For the past week: 11,732 cases, down from 12,005 the week before. Deaths were 399, down from 441 the week before. Due to delays and re-classifications nothing to be read from that. Cases maintain a daily average of about 1,700, limited by testing quantity and scope. R still on the border at 0.9 nationally (at Feb 7). Update on Silang, Cavite: A fortnight ago this busy market town imposed a ban on entry without a "heath certificate". Don't know if it's still on but cases there went up by 16 over the past week. Dasmarinas, a four times more populated area to the north and nearer to the NCR had only 30 new cases and other smaller market towns in the upper Cavite area recorded much lower new cases. So I suppose they had to be concerned though whether restricting entry was justified is perhaps questionable. Some data on the Philippines international standing: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...63ab304178.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...32b725e5f9.jpg Falling cases in some neighbouring countries.... |
Re: NCR llockdown
I read that the Philippines will be vaccinating their Olympic team before going to Tokyo this summer. I wonder where they are going to get the vaccine in time. Good to see they are getting their priorities sorted out.
https://swimswam.com/india-the-phill...l-get-vaccine/ |
Re: NCR llockdown
For Feb 15 a fall in new cases down to 1,685 with over 600 of them from a backlog. Only 15k were tested and the positivity was 6.8%. Only 17.8k tests are in preparation. Simply lower new cases from lower testing.
Deaths announced 2 with both of them RDs! Lack of testing and data due to Chinese New Year? Severe cases up 21 to 773 and critical down 4 to 773. Detail from Feb 14: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f2989af9d7.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f1ec296ae2.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...741ecb6853.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd28fdd0db.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0426d705fb.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...354c1b2b57.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3ff95df0c8.jpg NCR 22.8%,4A 12%. Total 34.8%. Eleven cities in the top 20. Navotas again with a high number. QC, Manila and Navotas together make up 40% of NCR cases. Central Visayas at 20.5%. The majority from Cebu Province, 92%, and 4 of its cities in the top 20. Cebu City contributing just under 60% of its provincial cases. These 3 regions plus the CAR, Central Luzon and Davao made up just over three quarters of national cases. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...40b5c5bd05.jpg NCR cases rising gradually... https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bcb29298a8.jpg Cebu City continues its steep rise.. No admission from the DOH of community transmission of the UK variant there, but a steep rise of that nature is a hallmark of the variant. https://www.rappler.com/nation/doh-s...s-mrt3-cluster Also possible transmission in Manila but again the DOH unwilling to be transparent, not even saying if they are checking for the variant there. Which of course they should be. The presence of the UK variant in one or more areas of the Philippines does have the potential to wreck government plans to bring the economy back, especially with the delayed vaccine start. But surely better to be transparent now to the public rather than later when business openings will have to be cancelled? https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/mone...story/?just_in Last, the BBC have prepared these graphics on the world covid situation: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105 |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases lower at 1,391 but with 10 labs not reporting, which may be significant. Tests only 16k, positivity 5.3% and a higher 20.8k in preparation. Following the recent established pattern over 500 of the results are from a backlog.
Deaths 7..unclear yesterday from media reports if any were RDs. Severe cases up 21, Critical up 8 at 752 and 781. Detail from Feb 15: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...588453ec3f.jpg Bicol 22, OFW 21, Illocos 19, MIMAROPA 11 https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...02e816111f.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0ace76887e.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f630dd3fc8.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a898f0c839.jpg NCR at 22.8%, 4A at 11.5%. So the total for the two 34.3%. Eight NCR cities in the top 20. Central Visayas almost the same as the NCR at 22.6%. As has been the case recently Cebu Province accounted for nearly all of these cases and well over half were from the capital, which reported a similar number to that of the previous day. CAR also reported over 100 cases. No further useful statements from the DOH here on the UK variant, This is about the other coronavirus variants here....many: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...quenced/story/ A study published by the prestigious Royal Statistical Society has analysed excess deaths due to coronavirus for a number of countries. Other less detailed studies have concluded they are much greater than the official covid totals. No surprise one of the greatest differences from this study was Russia's at 6.5 times as much. UK at 1,5 times and the US at 1.3 times. The Philippines, along with many developing countries, seems not to produce the data so that excess deaths can be reliably estimated. My guess would be they are nearer to Mexico's than the US! Dr John Campbell can tell you more: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4845994e8b.jpg Another detailed study published by the Economist on excess deaths: https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH announced a lower 1,184 cases yesterday, deceptive as there were 462 more than that found positive in the latest testing. Positivity was 6.1%. Delays in announcing positive results can lead to incorrect analysis unless averages are used. Tests coming along at a low 20.8k.
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a24443df38.jpg The variation in daily testing looking much greater since around October 2020, when new cases spread provincially. Positivity not falling and trending slightly above the recognised 5% control level. Deaths higher at 53, after small numbers recently. RDs accounted for 30 of them. Death numbers day to day also affected by more reporting delays due to the greater regional spread. Severe and critical both up to the same number.....775. Detail for Feb 16: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f546d02310.jpg Other Mindanao 15 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d95b92f877.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...248b9d98cc.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...496ffbd945.jpg Central Visayas with over 30% of cases. NCR down at 15.1%, 4A at 7.1% Adding CAR and Davao regions gets to 54%. The NCR had a low 7 out of 17 cities in the top 20. Whereas Cebu had 5 with nearly half of provincial cases from Cebu City. The OCTA group's Feb 17 report finds positivity between 10 and 18% in the top four. Cebu cities. The capital averaging more than 200 cases per day recently. Hospital occupancy at over 70% in two cities..Lapu Lapu and Talisay. Elsewhere Tabuk (Kalinga) with both increasing cases and positivity. CDO with 12% positivity. Twelve per cent positivity in Valenzuala City is also of concern. There is a rise in Navotas cases. Smaller rises are seen recently in the cities of Pasay and Manila. Cases are on the decline in Baguio City although positivity is still high there at 15%. Davao City showing some decline but positivity is at a high 10%. The group is not in favour of more opening up before vaccination is well underway. The problem is vaccination is some way off and businesses are lobbying government hard to relax restrictions soon. The group still believes the UK variant is "possibly" spreading in some communities here, giving another reason for caution, whereas the DOH is presently sticking with saying "local transmission" only. . |
Re: NCR llockdown
As indicated yesterday a large backlog would be added and so the latest new cases announced is back up at 1,744, 6 labs not reporting. Testing was at 28k, with 6% positivity. DOH site down so no future test number.
Deaths 96 with 68 of them RDs. The general public and even some medical professionals will probably be alarmed at these high death figures announced every so often as they are unaware of the RDs. Information on those come low down in the DOH daily announcements. They stretch back many months, especially to July and August, and added to the regular reporting delay for deaths mean that the country has a much worse death record earlier in the pandemic and an improving one lately: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5d8a304c99.jpg Severe and Critical reported each at 778, up just 3. Detail from Feb 17 cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e6a5e8735e.jpg E Visayas 10, MIMAROPA 9, Cagayan V 8, BARMM 3 https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0db2c91585.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8f1c9597a4.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e99bd9d3a4.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...633262b13c.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...dc4aa27da2.jpg Low testing from the provinces leading to a higher showing for the NCR...34.5%. Eleven NCR cities in the top 20. The surrounding 4A region had 9.5%, so the total for the original epicentre 44%. Central Visayas continues its surge at 21% with nearly all from Cebu province and following the recent pattern Cebu City with 63% of those. Some updates: The arrival date of the first doses of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, originally promised next week, may now be later: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/18/...avirus-vaccine Awaiting Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) here. from the Philippines FDA, who must now be getting government pressure! The vaccine to be used in Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia and has been given EUA in Brazil, but their body not on an approved WHO list which this country can use to approve here. Results in the Brazil trial, the vaccines largest ,showed an overall efficiency rate of 50,4% but that may have been due to too short a period between the jabs and too many medical workers in the trials: https://mb.com.ph/2021/01/18/sinovac...f-its-vaccine/ Another Chinese vaccine..Sinopharm..in the news here last year when it was administered to the Presidential Guard and then, unsurprisingly, no prosecution brought for that illegal act. Reviewed quite favourably in a recent DrJohn update: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4102aefefb.jpg In that update he also looks at some ONS data on recent UK covid infections. For England 18.5% of the population had antibodies October to January. He thinks that allowing for infections before October "at least 30% of the population has antibodies, probably a third". Looking to explain the recent rapid fall in cases he thinks this may be one important factor and one which bodes well to achieve a measure of herd immunity fairly quickly as vaccines are administered at the present high rate. For the Philippines, even allowing for large under-reporting, one cannot imagine the equivalent figure for existing antibodies at more than a few per cent. The Philippines has a plus factor with higher immunity levels from a much younger population, but here the vaccines will have to do a lot more of the work. And they are late, likely gong to be given slower and include some less effective ones. Production of AZ vaccine for the Philippines under the COVAX facility will be sourced from S Korea, Thailand and possibly India. The maximum from AZ through the WHO's COVAX facility is about 10m doses, which won't go far here. and look like coming much later this year. Of course AZ in Europe have stopped taking new orders. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-galvez/story/ https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/17/...ning-effective At home learning pretty much a disaster here and at last the pressure is on to at least allow some trials to take place. They were previously planned to start in January but were abruptly stopped by the President when he learned about the UK variant. As of now no indication officially or otherwise that it is generally going around here. Face to face teaching can surely be started in many areas and adding time in the Summer for the existing remote learning packages, an idea recently floated, will I think just get in the way of preparations to re-start physical school attendance in some form in June. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday added 1,901 new cases, just 4 labs did not report. Includes a 300 or so backlog and positivity from 27k individual tests was 5.9%. Tests coming along up somewhat at 34.3k.
Deaths at a shocking 157, but not really when 120 of them from the DOH validation who now says they were deaths and not recoveries. Severe and Critical both reported unchanged at 779. Detail on Feb 18 cases: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1c8adf7fd0.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2109475f1d.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6789dadda1.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c7101aff0a.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e012978272.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...95fdd2963d.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...774703b1a3.jpg NCR 32.2%, 4A 8.9%...total a high 41.1%. Pasay City a surprisingly high 112 cases., a fifth of the NCR. Eleven NCR cities in the top 20. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a9ec876cb4.jpg Pasay City recent uptick.... Central Visayas at 19%, nearly all from Cebu Povince with 61% of those from Cebu City. The province had two other cities in the top 20. Central Luzon adding 132: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...61239b8868.jpg CL showing a steeper rise than the NCR recently. Cabayan and Cauayan cities are in Isabela. Death rate up at 2.12% of cases, Just below the world average; Some of the nearest countries in the world table shown here: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...df155dddff.jpg Worse than Sierra Leone and close to Spain https://covid19stats.ph/stats |
Re: NCR llockdown
The Philippines announced another 2,240 cases yesterday and 6 labs did not report. Highest daily total since early November. Positivity at 6.8%. Tests were of 24.2k individuals and tests in preparation 34k.
If daily case numbers continue to rise here will the DOH keep up their embargo on daily locational numbers? People will be wondering where the case rises are occurring, rumours will start circulating. Deaths even higher than yesterday's figure at 239...but read the small print and you find that 167 of them are more RDs...one of the other mysteries of DOH statistics. They will go back many months in some cases. Case fatality rate up again to 2.16%. More detail on Feb 19 cases: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...69f489f5d6.jpg Bicol 20, other Mindanao 22 https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2ae972754b.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f63e8d2359.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ed3b197c69.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...881d5bea6f.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...218b3e58a1.jpg Central Visayas 26.5%, NCR 28.4%, 4A 10.4% and Central Luzon at 6.4% of the national total. So NCR plus 4A accounting for nearly 39% of cases. Adding in Central Visayas makes up nearly two thirds. Nearly all cases in Central Visayas on Cebu Island and Cebu City made up 45%. But four other cities were in the top 20 today. With a population only about 5m, less than half of the NCR the outbreak there is presently out of control and if it continues for a few more weeks some its hospitals will reach capacity. Last time this happened generals from the Task Force were sent in with great fanfare, so it will be interesting to see if that is repeated. Pasay City, again with a higher than usual case number of 57 yesterday, imposed a 2 week lockdown on 33 barangays....actually only on about half of them that had 3 or more cases. The Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day being blamed but cases are generally on the rise in Metro Manila. Linking here on BE non functional now so will leave you to search for more information on that if you want to. DOH website also down at present. |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases on Feb 21 down a few hundred on the day before at 1.888. Positivity down a little at 6.3% Testing up at 29k and new tests coming along higher at 32k.
After the large number of deaths announced the day before 20 came today, but 12 of them were RDs. Recoveries were again mostly kept for Sunday and came to 9.7k. Compared to a week ago Active cases at 26,238 are up 320, by just over 1%. Severe in hospital now 735, down 44 over the last two days. Critical up 8 over the last two days to 787. Details for Feb 20 cases: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...399f4848a1.jpg Other Mindanao 16 https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4e93eb2257.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...eeb2389142.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0425f242b4.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e0a14c14e8.jpg Regionally the NCR top at 26%, together with 4A at 9.2% the two added contributed over 35% of cases. Then Central Visayas with over 24%. Again nearly all from Cebu province with just over half from its capital. Three other cities on the island made the top 20 for the day. Ten NCR cities also made the top 20, notably again Pasay City with a high 85 new cases. Nearly 80% of the cases came from these afore mentioned regions plus CAR, W Visayas and Central Luzon. Apart from Pasay, showing a large uptick there is also concern about rises in Malabon and Las Pinas, while recent positivity in Marikina is showing at a high 14%. Navotas is showing falls, but overall the NCR cities are averaging a 45% daily increase over the second half of last week compared to the previous 7 day's daily average. R is now back up to 1.22 in the NCR and positivity there is averaging 5%. Probably no one big factor to account for the rises, except that testing has been too low and not so good in provincial areas, tracing not improving (after a fanfare with the appointment of a Czar last year he resigned!), and the many weeks of the resulting flat new cases were deceptive in hiding the effects of more economic activity and perhaps some fatigue in the general public. Vaccines are not coming to the rescue quickly. Apart from supply issues the Philippines reputation over vaccine litigation, especially over Dengraxia is holding up their importation. New cases per day averaged 1,715 over the last week, compared to 1,676 the week before...2.3% up. Deaths 80 per day , compared to 57. NCR vs provincial deaths: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...70ebdf10fc.jpg NCR deaths https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...61d1f87970.jpg Davao City deaths https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca8d983dbd.jpg Cebu City deaths NCR deaths showing a slight rise but falling again. Davao City after many weeks of rising cases late last year with a big rise in early January. Since then figures went down and up and we need to allow for late reporting before seeing an established trend over the whole of January. Cebu City provisional deaths showing a recent rise, yet to be confirmed, following the rise in cases from late December. On variants here: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/21/...s-of-mutations Thirteen returning OFWs with the UK variant came back. The DOH saying no more about them but talking more about the possibility of a "Philippine variant" But the UK variant is the known threat and it is obvious the genome testing here is slow and these OFWs could well be starting more local transmission. Noticeable the DOH do not give their location. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...695e4c6a54.jpg Something the Philippines could consider as it is slow in starting vaccination and its cases are starting to rise. Dr John looking at a US journal published study making a strong case for Pfizer and Moderna to be given in 1 dose followed by a 3 month gap. Length of protection of the one dose looks to be at least 9 weeks and likely much more from Israeli data. Doubt if they will do it here though as only a minority of countries are following the UK in the one dose first policy, cases are relatively low here and they will be afraid it will show to the public they have not controlled the outbreak and vaccine provision here well. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The highest new cases since November 8 at 2,288 and 6 labs did not report. However the latest tests showed only 16.6k people tested and the positives included a backlog of over1,000 results. Positivity at 6.6% and only 17.4k results are in preparation.
Deaths at 6 with 2 of them RDs. On the issue of RDs: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c04d792593.jpg Tweet from ABS-CBN About the large Feb 20 death announcement. I thought that most of these RDs were from many weeks back as they were last year, but now it seems they are nearly all recent, maybe as the DOH are looking hard for them. But still no indication as to why they are wrongly tagged as recoveries. The ABS-CBN data unit also updated their DOH statistics on the share of deaths in hospital. Now only 38%. Back in October they published this chart, which showed over 40% were in hospital. It also showed just over 20% in a critical condition were admitted to hospital. Likely to get worse as the provincial cases increase. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...eafb3b04a2.jpg For the minority in hospitals now the DOH announced severe at 741, critical 769....up 6 and down 18 respectively. Details for Feb 21: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7d3d2149b6.jpg Bicol 21 https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b7436cde0f.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...974f61fd72.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...efb9dee572.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c94fd3f3aa.jpg Banate IloIlo Just under a third of cases from the NCR, 11 of its cities in the top 20. Pasay with another large daily total of 97, third highest nationally. W Visayas was the next highest contributor at 21.4% of national cases, again the great majority from Cebu province and over 44% of those from Cebu City. Three other Cebu cities were in the top 20. Calabarzon at 8.5%, making the total contribution with the NCR to over 40% of national cases. Cebu has been given until Friday by the central government to show they can control the outbreak. If not and it seems unlikely, maybe an enhanced quarantine and the generals to be sent in again. The Cebu governor is of course not happy with that prospect and is pushing back, even making it easier for tourists to visit the island. A game changer could be some result about the widespread presence or not of a virus mutation involving elements of the UK and SA variants. But that is coming from the WHO and will take some time. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...39db0d9d14.jpg Cebu province exponential growth... https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/22/...erte-spokesman This was the official position earlier yesterday but then a few hours later: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...says-go/story/ The numbers were already getting worse a week ago! The latest position of no relaxation unless the vaccines are rolled out means what? Vaccine program just under way? Or at a certain stage? We know that the benefits from vaccines in terms of cutting virus transmission will take many weeks to even start showing. Notice also that face to face schooling is also mentioned as off, though whether trials in certain areas will be allowed not mentioned by the President. As mentioned yesterday front line health workers and seniors are not to get Sinovac's vaccine, but economic front liners and some military will: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/139888...-sinovac-shots The government desperately trying to make up vaccine supplies from Sinopharm ( a state owned company from China)..... and Russia (Sputnik V): https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...vid-19-vaccine Trouble is they are late and the Russians have a large population themselves to vaccinate to control a bad outbreak and are exporting it to countries which they want to influence in their battle against the West. So there will likely be a quid pro quo for the Ph to offer in exchange. The national chart: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...40263dcf42.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH announced a further 1,414 cases yesterday. The backlog was about 150 results out of 20k tested. Positivity at 6.2%. Eight labs did not report. That may be significant. Tests on the way low at 17k.
Deaths at 16 with 3 of them RDs. Case fatality up to 2.14% (Spain near at 2.15%). Severe patients up 4 to 745, critical up 6 to 775. Today a change in that we first note the location details of yesterday's cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7e602a544a.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f44b83bc97.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c76ff8e1dc.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1f8029f7a9.jpg So for yesterday's cases W Visayas made up 29.2% of the national total, followed by the NCR at 25.5% and region 4A at 11.9%. So the NCR plus 4A made up 37.4%. Seven NCR cities in the top 20, lower than usual. Pasay still high with 52 cases. For W Visayas again the great majority were from Cebu province and most, 60%, of those announced were in Cebu City. Four other Cebu cities were again in the top 20. Now, a brief breakdown of the far greater number of 2,288 cases that were announced on Feb 22: The highest regions were NCR 707, C Visayas 483, 4A 222, E Visayas 130, Central Luzon 122, Davao 109, CAR 108 These 7 regions together made up more than 82% of the cases. NCR 30.9%, Central Visayas 21.1% and 4A 9.7%. So NCR plus 4A a high 40.6% of the national total. As usual Manila was highest in the NCR at 115, closely followed by QC at 112 and then Pasay still high at 95 and Malabon at 86. A high 12 NCR cities were in the top 20 cities. Provincially, again Cebu province contributed 86% of the region's number. Cebu City made up just under 60% of the island's cases and four other of its cities were in the top 20. Leyte province came second with a much smaller 114 cases. We need to be somewhat cautious with the testing data from some regions as the test labs are often a long way from the sample location, but this is the latest picture on testing nationally: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2c9de3f8a5.jpg Regions with over 5% positivity make up over 40% of the total population. Nearly all are in the Visayas and Mindanao Updates on the vaccine situation here: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...k?ocid=BingHPC As reported yesterday here the Sinovac vaccine now not for the front line health workers and seniors. So who will get it? Whether it is as poor on effectivity as some of the data suggests it will be a difficult sell to those who have the choice. I suspect it will eventually be delivered to those who won't have a choice and won't know what vaccine they are getting. When it arrives. The first 600k doses were supposed to arrive yesterday. No surprise that of those the Chinese company has donated 100k to the DND (Dept of National Defense) https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ty-fund/story/ Good news as the vaccines are late in coming. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...49e8cce637.jpg An excerpt from a recent GMA medical science report which may explain the UK variant's greater transmission potential. https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...ritain-germany This leaves a sour taste for me though another example of the crude attitude the Philippines takes these days to dealing with Western governments and international organizations. Last, Dr John on the German DW TV talking about the UK plan to gradually release lockdown there: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ecb5515ab2.jpg On his update Monday. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a higher 1,557 new cases, nothing said about the labs. Tests were only 23.2k with positivity a higher 7.5%. Only 23.7k tests coming along.
Deaths at 22, 11 of them RDs with severe 743 and critical 774, basically unchanged. Location detail for yesterday: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f83fac991a.jpg Other Mindanao 17 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...93af967bd9.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f3d7d8b66f.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e48abc2e00.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1ca40a5f40.jpg NCR gave 30.4% of the national total, 4A 8.4%. The two together 38.8%. The NCR had 12 cities in the top 20. Pasay again high at 60, third highest city nationally. Central Visayas contributed 27.1%, and continuing the trend nearly all were from Cebu. More than half of those were from Cebu City. LapuLapu, Mandaue and Talisay Cities brought the total to 331, or 80% of the island's total. The dominance of large cities, capitals in the top 20 urban areas was noticeable yesterday. Vaccine news: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in The country's leader challenging the qualified medical specialists at the Philippine FDA, in public. Expect more of that. OCTA polling through 1,200 face to face interviews on willingness to take a covid vaccine. Accuracy +/- 3%. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/25/...ovid-19-survey Only a fifth for vaccination and the main reason safety. Lack of effectiveness the other main reason mentioned. More were wary in the lower socio-economic classes. Chinese vaccines the least trusted. Worrying figures for the government. I would have liked to see a question about people's willingness to take any vaccines. There are always some. Btw "Balance Luzon" means Luzon outside Manila. I had to look it up! Last, a look at Indonesia's progress: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a9597c0b9c.jpg New cases seemed to have peaked at the end of January, but a downward trend not fully established. The last two days had 7.5k, 9.8k and 10.2k new cases, going back. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1d796c79a6.jpg Deaths seem to be on a firmer downward trend. Last three day's figures 240,323 and 202. Indonesia has started vaccination with a Chinese vaccine. So far about 2m doses administered to a population of over 270m. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-tracker.html |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday announced a higher total of 2,269. Tests were up at 27.4k, positivity 6.1%. A backlog of about 600 results added. Tests in preparation up at 35.5k.
Deaths 72, 12 of them RDs. Case fatality rate up again to 2.15%. Severe up 3 to 746, critical down 5 to 779. Detail of location for yesterday's cases: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1a56c4885b.jpg Other Mindanao 31 https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...dd2ae4105d.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8aa0e47726.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2ef388b66d.jpg New entry Minglanilla in Cebu. NCR with almost 40% of national cases and 12 cities in the top 20. Case explosion in Pasay City at 151 to top the NCR and national table for the first time. Next highest was Central Visayas with just under 20%. NCR together with 4A made up nearly half the national cases at 48.8%. As usual Cebu province at 430 with nearly all the regional cases and Cebu City with just over half of them. Four other Cebu urban areas in the top 20. Going back now for locational detail on the lesser number (1,557) of Feb 24 cases: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cacfd699a1.jpg Other Mindanao 17 https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6df6c9c4f3.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...37669a6ab7.jpg NCR with 30.4%, 4A with 8.4%. So the two areas 39.8% of national total. Pasay at 4th place with 60 cases behind the usual leaders QC, Manila and Makati. NCR again with with 12 out of the top 20 urban areas. Central Visayas with over 27%. Cebu province with 410 cases, the great majority of the regional total. Cebu City with nearly half of the island's cases. Three other Cebu cities in the top 20 urban areas. CAR also a region with over 100 cases and 6.6% of the national total. The NCR: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...046e119d5a.jpg NCR gradual recent increase.. An update from OCTA research group says Pasay nearly doubled its cases last week compared to the previous one. Its attack rate (compared to the population) at over 12 per 100k. In the nation that is only exceeded by Cebu City and Tabuk, the capital city of Kalinga. But other cities in the NCR are also of concern. Malabon, Paranaque, Manila, Taguig and Marilina all have recently seen their cases increase by over 40% week on week. Positivity in Paranaque at 11% and in Marikina 12%. Makati also high at 7%, Pasig at 9%. The NCR positivity is around 5%. Cities doing well overall include Mandaluyong, Muntinlupa, Valenzuala and Pasig with its low attack rate and hospital occupancy. But the NCR Reproduction estimate is rising: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...056a383520.jpg Cebu City chart: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e098753c6b.jpg Possibly the peak has been reached. Buti its attack rate and positivity rate is still high, though hospital occupancy is only at 53%. Lower than in LapuLapu City and much lower than in Makati City where it is at 72%. |
Re: NCR llockdown
We have a number of interesting political events that have taken place during this week.
No relaxation of quarantine measure until vaccines are available. A good positive statement by the President. Who is also extolling the virtues of the Sinovax which seemingly is only 50% effective. The Governor of Cebu Province ( a SARS 2 hotspot) had hoped for a relaxation of quarantine controls to assist the tourist industry, so much for responsible leadership. Well let us see how events unfold in the coming weeks. As a 73 year old foreigner I do not expect anything until 2022, despite the fact that HMG is vaccinating all an sundry. So much for reciprocity. I hope I am proved wrong. I see that Queen Betty is telling all in her realm not to be selfish and jab up. Happy weekend one and all. |
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