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Re: NCR llockdown
If this helps. When my wife and I were showing COVID symptoms we used a private laboratory who visited us at our residence and undertook the swab procedure. They emailed the results within 24 hours.
If any reader is interested PM me. |
Re: NCR llockdown
3500p, that's the cheapest I've seen so far. Our local hospital was charging 9000p so we went directly to the lab and paid 6500p. I believe at the airport coming in it's 4500p. We had our results texted to us as a pdf, they had my name wrong so I just edited it on my laptop. I wonder if we could use them again mmmmm.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12931612)
3500p, that's the cheapest I've seen so far. Our local hospital was charging 9000p so we went directly to the lab and paid 6500p. I believe at the airport coming in it's 4500p. We had our results texted to us as a pdf, they had my name wrong so I just edited it on my laptop. I wonder if we could use them again mmmmm.
Anyway for what its worth for anybody else: https://www.rappler.com/nation/list-...9-rt-pcr-tests |
Re: NCR llockdown
Seems that testing is now back to pre Rolly levels. individuals samples tested were at 25.9k and to be tested soon at 26.7k. Though 15 labs did not report.
Yesterday 2,092 more cases, with 1,714 or 82% recent. Notable was another large number from Davao City..129. More detail tomorrow. What do the latest NCR and 4A charts look like? (trend lines for total cases, look at bars for more useful recent cases) https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b793b0ab50.jpg NCR falling steeply though testing disruption has probably exaggerated the reductions. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c9a2bdf204.jpg For 4A fall is more gradual. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...83d3c6ce7a.jpg Davao Region showing steep case growth. Deaths at 52 nationwide, which included another announcement of 28 recovery deaths. Active cases now up to more than 34k with 1,444 critical, just 2 more than the day before. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c0a8a2a0e2.jpg NCR recent cases estimate about 470. 4A recent cases estimate about 245. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...96131f2ac7.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...280add24af.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b9e265d6c8.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
There is a worrying development in Europe. They are culling 17 million mink in Denmark. Apparently covid has got into the mink population where it has mutated and there are concerns that the new strain could be resistant to the vaccines.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday another 2,157 new cases announced. Recent cases 1,711 out of 24.5k samples. But still recent cases only 79% of the total.
Recent test effort improving to 30.6k. Nine labs did not report. Outside the Manila area Davao City came top with 107 cases. More details tomorrow. Deaths at 24 with 6 of those again "recovery deaths". Active cases up to 36,200 and the critical list a little higher at 1,448. The details from November 6: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2e609a7547.jpg Nearly 100 other cases in Mindanao. CAR 76. Adjusting for recent cases NCR about 430 and 4A about 310. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...29a6d40a1c.jpg https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f58483a307.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5868879bef.jpg The world table: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...395552e3a1.jpg The Philippines gradually slipping down the world table as some European countries overtake it. Even Romania may do so eventually. But that assumes no second wave here in the New Year. |
Re: NCR llockdown
https://www.rappler.com/nation/list-...9-vaccine-czar
From this we can see that the President's view is that the Philippines covid vaccine programme will be primarily a logistical exercise. The DOHs vaccine task force will be under him despite them running vaccinations now and in the past for other infections. Presumably they all require considerable logistical expertise? The general is still the chief implementer of the Task Force so this decision seems to show a mindset that the pandemic here is coming under control and just waiting for a vaccine to really achieve that. Maybe two other aspects here...DOH corruption? Yet the Secretary is still in post. Or maybe just a continuation of a preference for the military to run things here? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12932154)
There is a worrying development in Europe. They are culling 17 million mink in Denmark. Apparently covid has got into the mink population where it has mutated and there are concerns that the new strain could be resistant to the vaccines.
https://www.politico.eu/article/6-co...health-agency/ And I saw a figure of 50m for the number of animals, including mink, farmed for their fur in China. Would they tell us of any transfer to humans? |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 12932465)
Definitely a cause for concern:
https://www.politico.eu/article/6-co...health-agency/ And I saw a figure of 50m for the number of animals, including mink, farmed for their fur in China. Would they tell us of any transfer to humans? |
Re: NCR llockdown
A higher 2,442 cases yesterday reflecting an increased level of testing recently Thirteen labs did not report. The most recent testing number down a little at 27.8k.
Recent positive cases at 2,079 (85%). Top 5 provinces were Rizal at 138, closely followed by City of Manila and Benguet. Fuller details tomorrow. Yesterday was another mass recovery day with 11.4k announced. Deaths were 54 with 39 of them from the last week. This all makes the number on the active list 27.2k, very slightly up from the figure last Sunday. Critical list number up at 1,470. The details from November 7: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4a9746ee21.jpg Plus more than 100 from other Mindanao regions. Recent cases estimate: NCR 474, Region 4A 340. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c13a0a8fcd.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e905d276e3.jpg Davao province at the top or second on many days recently. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a5576eb70e.jpg Davao City again at the top. Figures from the past week show no significant decline in cases, despite some weather disruption. Cases falling gradually in the NCR and Region 4a (except in Quezon Province where they have been rising). Cases rising in many densely populated Provincial conurbations and in dense worker communities found in industrial and mining areas. The national reproduction number at November 5 was unchanged from the previous week at just under 1 (0.95 to 0.98 95% confidence interval). |
Re: NCR llockdown
Just over 2k cases announced. But only 44% (903) were recent. Nine labs not reporting. Seems that a recent backlog rather than cases from months ago has been processed. The 903 cases came from about 15k tests. The latest testing number is a little higher at 17.3k.
As you can see testing has been inconsistent with a downward trend. Probably due to a combination of the weather and the spread of the virus away from the epicenter. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c886439fa9.jpg Rizal topped the list of provinces outside Manila with 103 cases, followed by Davao City and Maguindanao both at 81. More details tomorrow. A shocking 108 deaths announced. Apart from announcing that 33 of those were "recovery deaths" found through an ongoing DOH audit process there is no explanation given about the remaining 75 deaths. They cannot all be recent. Deaths are one of the weaker metrics of the pandemic here and the DOH has recently greatly reduced the daily information given out about them. Case fatality rate here is now at 1.92%. The same as the Netherlands and just above half way in the world table, led by the Yemen at 29%, Balancing that we claim a high Case Recovery Rate of about 90%. More on the critical list at 1,491. More details on the cases from November 8: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...11b84b9c94.jpg Adjusting for recent cases NCR estimated to be about 570 and Region 4A 470. For NCR cities: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...19fa98880c.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...af5d183401.jpg Benguet cases from Baguio and mining areas, https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...38fc8ad945.jpg Itogon at 5th is a mining town, population over 60k. Parang at 6th position is a first class municipality in Maguindanao. Has a population of 90k in a land area the same as the NCR. But with limited health facilities which are in danger of being overwhelmed by an outbreak of 109 cases in the first week of November alone. Total now at 200 with 1 death. Illustrating the problem for many smaller Provincial conurbations as the virus spread nationally away from the epicenter. Also, it may be temporary but perhaps the improvement in Manila and Calabarzon is levelling out? (ignore the trend line). https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5533707843.jpg NCR https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0391c0ad45.jpg Region 4A |
Re: NCR llockdown
Only 1,347 cases nationally announced yesterday. The DOH say that there was an "unusually low reporting rate from labs on Monday" Eight labs did not report any cases.
Of these cases 1,347 (95%) were recent, out of 21.8k tests. The latest testing effort on Monday is reported at 23.1k. As the DOH doesn't explain this sudden drop more one wonders if there is more trouble coming with the testing effort? Highest figures from Cavite 92, City of Manila 77, QC 58, Baguio 55 and Laguna 52. More detail tomorrow. Deaths at 14, of which 9 were more of the "recovery deaths"...yes again! A drop in the critical list of 43 to 1,448. More detail on the situation on November 9: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e40f8fe436.jpg Also Caraga Region 25, MIMAROPA 21 Estimating for recent cases only: NCR only 207 and 4A only 173 cases. The recent reported percentage announced 10 November was very low at 44%. For the NCR: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4c3b5fcb6d.jpg Also Caloocan 16, Paranaque 15 cases. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...064d97b2f0.jpg https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...16f8a56f7f.jpg Davao City was last top on November 8. Note the inclusion of Sison in Pangasinan. Population of about 50k. Now 68 cases and 1 death. Looking at Pangasinan as a whole: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f51a21ffe1.jpg New cases falling lately but note the high spike a few weeks ago https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...174dee325a.jpg Deaths rose during October with no clear trend now. Pangasinan has a population of about 3m and at the end of October only had just over 1,600 cases, but a relatively high 62 deaths. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Pfizer,the makers of Viagra will soon have the vaccine for Covid 19 available. If they can raise the dead, they can surely protect the living.....
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Re: NCR llockdown
Raffin, thank you for all your thoughtful analysis and comments on covid-19 in the Philippines :thumbup:
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Re: NCR llockdown
Raffin, thank you for all your thoughtful analysis and comments on covid-19 in the Philippines https://britishexpats.com/forum/imag...sunglasses.gif
Seconded...i may not be commenting here much,but i am keeping a close eye of these figures every day..I appreciate the sterling work you are doing,raffin Cheers. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Philosophical 11
(Post 12934858)
Pfizer,the makers of Viagra will soon have the vaccine for Covid 19 available. If they can raise the dead, they can surely protect the living.....
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Re: NCR llockdown
Back posting after power restored.
Cases announced on November 11 1,672. Eight labs did not report. Only 70% of the positives were recent out of 20k tests. Location detail below. Deaths were 49 with 10 recovery deaths. Critical unchanged. DOH website down. Will show latest recent cases chart when available. Details on location of November 10 cases unavailable. Details of November 11 cases: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...781e9ba78c.jpg ...and another 25 from Mindanao. Recent cases for NCR down to about 280, for 4A about 220. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...10b1a170dc.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...625d6b8dd9.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1fde0bab63.jpg Four new entrants from Benguet, Mindanao and Cebu, A look at the latest world table: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ad68624b78.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Cases announced November 12 were at 1,407 with 17 labs not reporting. Positives were at 1,501...strangely nearly 100 more than the number announced?? Out of 23.7k cases.
Typhoon Ulysses will obviously reduce testing and result processing for a while. Apart from the NCR top 5 provinces were: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a6734fcbf7.jpg Deaths at 11 with Recovery Deaths (RD) at 8. (As they are coming out with these every day I will use RD in future.) Some people are calling them "Zombie Deaths"!! Critical list down 10 to 1,438. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Returning to the Pfizer vaccine I understand it is not as straightforward as some would like. It seems that two shots are necessary, does not give protection for 4 weeks and requires a very low temperatures in the cold chain. Also £25 a pop.
The Oxford vaccine when available as I understand it does not require an unusually low cold chain, one shot and less than £5 a pop. I notice that the PRC version has hit a snag during trials in Brazil and the PRC is as usual economical with the state of progress |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 12935141)
Returning to the Pfizer vaccine I understand it is not as straightforward as some would like. It seems that two shots are necessary, does not give protection for 4 weeks and requires a very low temperatures in the cold chain. Also £25 a pop.
The Oxford vaccine when available as I understand it does not require an unusually low cold chain, one shot and less than £5 a pop. I notice that the PRC version has hit a snag during trials in Brazil and the PRC is as usual economical with the state of progress The original vaccine budget was P2.5bn. The latest proposal from the House of Representatives was to increase it to P8bn. But the DOH said at least P12.5bn needed. Of the 2021 budget a quarter is for the manly Chinese financed "Build, Build, build" program. P1.1trillion. That's a very high yearly allocation for any country. They could just delay some of these projects and avoid the country having to rely on the WHO Covax scheme plus cheap Chinese and Russian vaccines. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 12935153)
We've just had a reminder about the unreliability of power supplies here and I would have thought because of that Pfizer is a no no.
The original vaccine budget was P2.5bn. The latest proposal from the House of Representatives was to increase it to P8bn. But the DOH said at least P12.5bn needed. Of the 2021 budget a quarter is for the manly Chinese financed "Build, Build, build" program. P1.1trillion. That's a very high yearly allocation for any country. They could just delay some of these projects and avoid the country having to rely on the WHO Covax scheme plus cheap Chinese and Russian vaccines. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,902 new cases announced. A lowish figure but 29 labs did not report. Most not reporting were in the NCR and around, due to Typhoon Ulysses. Only 48% were recent too, a large backlog from last week feeding through.
Testing falling from 31k on Nov 11 down to 19.7k on the 12th. Top 5 areas: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4bb4f082de.jpg Province and city figures not including the NCR. Deaths 31 with now 1,465, 27 more, on critical list. The numbers critical always nearly twice the number in a severe condition. Meaning that many patients did not get to hospital in time to stop their condition deteriorating. The location picture from cases announced yesterday: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9d62f42876.jpg For the NCR: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...263626c7d3.jpg Note: NCR and 4A figures were all recent that day. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d6e56d4c07.jpg Except for 5 cases Davao del Sur means the city. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1bd2e11b0c.jpg Two new entrants from E, Samar Salcedo pop 22k had 44 cases first 11 days of November, Guiuan, pop 52k had 31. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7205a8e705.jpg Easter Samar cases growth rapid lately. For the containing region of Eastern Visayas: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a3c1992c9f.jpg Eastern Visayas case growth https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...126138f9bd.jpg Eastern Visayas deaths Regional growth in both cases and deaths recently. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Below are some DOH charts showing the current official situation in the country, the NCR and Calabarzon:
Recent case data is probably understated due to the disruption in testing caused by recent typhoons. For cases by date of onset and deaths at date of death look at the bars. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5e771d5865.jpg Consistent fall in case growth nationwide. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0cfa2a8808.jpg Consistent recent falls in case growth in the NCR. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8b3882bd4a.jpg Region 4A case growth falling but inconsistently. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5ecd6992cc.jpg Cavite was the top province today and has been in the top 5 often recently. Case growth fall has levelled off there recently. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...940c54ef64.jpg National deaths consistently falling recently. Though RDs adding to deaths back in July and August. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1618c9e2ea.jpg NCR deaths consistently falling lately but additions to July and August. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2266a4b971.jpg Region 4A deaths falling recently but not consistently. Additions to July and August. General comment: Cases falling in the epicenters of NCR and around, and in the Visayas, except in the Eastern Visayas. Though reduced testing is overstating the falls. Cases rising in some areas of Mindanao especially Davao. Also of concern certain areas of Northern Luzon. Problem is that rising cases in small Provincial cities, smaller communities and workplaces, mines etc can easily overwhelm local hospitals and raise the case fatality rate. As the European experience shows as an economy opens up eg festive season, social mixing increases and people can get careless. Then new case resurgence can occur and the virus outbreak, which for any country and especially a third world country is certain to have many unreported cases in the background, will grow for many more months until vaccination can start to make an impression. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Announced yesterday another 1,650 new cases, though only 72% were recent. Still a backlog going through. Nine labs not reporting. The positive cases came from 19.5k tests. The latest testing of individuals number is 25.8k two days ago.
Top 5 locations not including the NCR were: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8c5223a091.jpg Four out of five in Region 4A! More location detail tomorrow. Deaths at 39 with RDs at 16, Critical list at 1,455, down 10, More detailed location numbers from cases announced on November 13: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6830df456c.jpg Recent cases for NCR est 190. For 4A 160. Plus another 67 cases for Mindanao. For the NCR: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bcf9e6bcac.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0f5d7d6d30.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...89042adc4e.jpg Cavite and Davao have featured before in the top 10, but Cebu re-entering after a long absence is a surprise. The top 20 cities and municipalities: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2e08b70bb1.jpg Davao and Cebu Cities Cebu City was an epicenter a few months ago and has racked up 10,623 cases to date and over 600 deaths. But now with only 206 active cases. This latest small uptick, maybe a result of the Typhoons lately, will be of concern there. Davao has nearly twice the population and is much less densely populated. But it already has over 5k cases and nearly 2k of those are active, Deaths at 149. Its 18 facilities are at an average of over 84% capacity. Few vacancies at ICUs and of isolation beds. Should be doing much better. New cases in Davao City rose weekly during October and early November: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca1bc67163.jpg On international case comparisons the Philippines keeps improving, but only because Turkey and many European countries have second waves: Now 26th. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2ad901083b.jpg Seeing we are now at 406k cases we can go back to the UP forecasts from a few months ago: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8d4f922878.jpg We're well above the lower confidence limit line at mid November, and taking into account lower testing for various reasons over the last month or so brings us much closer to the mean. As for the future the difficulties in observing social distancing during a category 3 typhoon hitting populated areas recently are bound to result in more cases. Especially as the latest national reproduction number estimated at 1.0 on November 7. It will be higher than 1.0 for many of the typhoon affected areas. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/15/...lity-in-the-ph |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another 1,530 new cases yesterday, 87% recent out of 20k tested. Latest testing for Nov 14 is 25.7k. Lab submission data not given!
Top 5 locations not including NCR: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...287f875fbf.jpg Deaths at 41. No other details given. Mass recoveries announced 11.3k. Active cases now number 25.7k. Last Sunday they were 27.2k. More location details for November 14 cases: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8bfb669d2a.jpg Plus another 11 from Mindanao. Unusually the NCR case total exceeded by Calabarzon. Estimates for recent cases: 4A 260, NCR 240. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a2e753cbcd.jpg https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...54b9a04d39.jpg Cities from all over the country featuring. A notable new entrant given recent events is Tuguegarao City in flood hit Cagayan. Japan is a country not heard about much in relation to covid but that may change as it faces a third wave. Yesterday, November 15 1,694 new cases were announced. Doing half the testing per head of population compared to the Philippines. Now at 51st in the world table with 117k cases and 1,883 deaths. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...465a52b3c2.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Latest update on C19 vaccines
Pfizer cost GBP 29.57 requires 2 doses Storage minus 78 deg C Oxfotd cost GBP 2.33 one dose only Storage between plus 2-8 deg C Effective for 55 years and older |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday DOH announced another 1,738 cases but only 52% of them are recent. More backlog being submitted. Nine labs did nit submit cases in time.
Positive samples were from 15.2k individuals and the test numbers from November 15 are only 19.3k. Lower testing levels lately. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...610bbafdcf.jpg The top 5 locations not including NCR were: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd68133330.jpg Deaths at 7 with nearly all, 6, RDs. Critical at 1,451 patients. Yesterday's number was 1,438, so a small increase. Deaths now officially at 7,839. More detail on the locations of cases for November 15: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b7dea3cde6.jpg About 370 cases from the NCR were recent. Regional breakdown was not available. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...59e59a05c5.jpg Calabarzon (Region 4A) featuring strongly. By city or municipality: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6a3c9f3b0d.jpg Cebu City again featuring. Regio 4A has more population than the NCR and a great deal of industry. Taking over from the NCR as the epicenter. Here are the new cases for the region as a whole and then for the Province of Cavite: (look at bars for recent cases, not trend lines) https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...82345f3b4b.jpg Recent falls in new cases but showing a recent increase in Region 4A. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...30a1e98c16.jpg Cavite new cases also showing slight recent increases. Won't be able to post tomorrow as we are moving back to Upper Cavite after 8 months trapped in Paranaque. Although the growth in Cavite cases is mainly in areas in the North of the province near to Manila it seems possible that when quarantine areas are next reviewed its and other 4A provinces MGCQ classifications might revert back to GCQ, to join Batangas. More restrictions will not be welcomed in our area which depends on tourists from the rest of Cavite and Manila. Will report more on this in the weeks to come. Should be able to resume reporting on Thursday. . |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases yesterday from the DOH at 1,148, but with 31 of the now 166 labs not reporting. Of those only 920 were recent positives, 52%. Tested were only 17.9k, but 24.6k samples were taken on November 16. Testing still badly affected by Ulysses.
Top 5 locations other than the NCR were: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c77b411d49.jpg Deaths at 23 with 8 of them RDs. Critical 1,444. A slight decrease. More location detail to come on November 17 cases. More detail on cases announced November 16: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a816f8ccf6.jpg Plus 5 Mindanao. Recent cases estimate 210 Calabarzon, 180 NCR. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b9e4636eda.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...178e91c043.jpg Another day showing more new cases in Cebu cities: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fdb330ccb2.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,383 cases,,91% recent for a change, from 22.4k tests on individuals. Latest testing for November 17 is 24.7k.
17 labs gave no report. out of 166 in total. Locations: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...10c61e50ac.jpg More detail tomorrow. Deaths at a high 95. Useful to know where but no details. Critical 1,454, up 10. Locations of November 17 cases: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...92686d0fd0.jpg Plus BARMM 12. For NCR apply 80% (not 52% as I incorrectly stated yesterday) to get about 180 recent for NCR and about 170 for 4A. For NCR cities: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2d76fd6c16.jpg For Provinces: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0fd83f7d15.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6e7f9127e1.jpg Three cities in Zamboanga del Sur and Norte now showing. Also new Laoag City in Illocos Norte. Province chart below: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...931355617b.jpg The DOH saying no cases yet from evacuation centers, but there will surely be more cases over the next two weeks or so due to recent Luzon wide weather events. Especially in Cagayan and Bicol. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/18/...ed-by-typhoons |
Re: NCR llockdown
Cases yesterday plus 1,337, seemingly all recent as 1,555 positives were found. Why 218 weren't announced is not explained. Tests were at 24.8k with 28.8k done on individuals two days ago.
Top 5 locations not including the NCR were: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...08767d1a40.jpg There were 41 deaths reported and one news agency said that 10 of those were RDs. The DOH continue to make it difficult to get locational data on deaths. To do so you would have to go through their regional death data charts. So today I can only report that on November 14 there were 5 deaths from the NCR out of the 31 nationally for that day. One day soon when I have time I will try and get some more data on regional deaths as it is an important feature of the pandemic here that is being unreported since the DOH stopped publishing daily regional data a few weeks ago. Critical down 21 at 1,433. Locational data on November 18 cases: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0c04582b16.jpg Also: Illocos 24,Cagayan Valley 20, BARMM 19 and Bicol 16. Both NCR and 4A with about 320 recent cases. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...752dc8af8e.jpg Region 4A provinces with 5 out of the top 6 positions. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e2dd231752.jpg Below see the testing data for the NCR only: From its now 67 labs up to November 17. Positivity down to 3.9% while for the whole country it's 5.5%. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4e4b0d0447.jpg The experts put the improvement down mainly to the efforts of the NCR cities. While very densely populated areas aid virus spread they are more amenable to testing and tracing efforts if scaled up. Whereas areas outside Manila, like Calabarzon, are now where the virus is spreading because, although less dense, testing and tracing efforts are made over greater areas with less resources and medical facilities. Death rates will be higher too. Davao City has now been reverted back to GCQ because of: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...255c4803d8.jpg and bed occupancy: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...70ea57dc39.jpg For more detail you can read this ABS-CBN report: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/20/...for-davao-city Finally a useful summary chart from the BBC on the progress of some of the leading vaccine candidates against Covid-19: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9acb20c495.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH announced another 1,639 cases yesterday, 63% recent with 8 labs not reporting. The day before11 labs did not report. The number of labs has risen by about 80% over the last 6 months, with a big expansion recently to now 166. My guess is the latest ones are in the regions and are not large. From the beginning the DOH have persisted in only saying the number of labs not reporting, large and small, rather giving a measure of how much testing output might have been lost. Yesterday the 6% positives were out of 17.1k individuals and 22.7k tests were done on November 19.
Top locations were: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...33001c3499.jpg Deaths at 27. More detail on death locations coming soon. Critical at 1,431, down just 2. Locations for November 19 cases: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...308fdb37f3.jpg Plus other Mindanao 31, Cagayan Valley 13. NCR and 4A all recent. For NCR cities: https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ae1e89fe36.jpg Plus Malabon 12, Marikina 9. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f5471a52cf.jpg Calabarzon 5 out of top 7. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f23ded9945.jpg An admission. not surprising, that test and trace here works poorly: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...acing-weakness About 20% traced in urban areas. And how long does that take? England does better but there only just above half of all contacts are now traced. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ippines/story/ Good to see AstraZeneca trialing here. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Here in the UK we are also seeing about 6% positives but are testing 500k a day. Read into it what you may.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 12937949)
Here in the UK we are also seeing about 6% positives but are testing 500k a day. Read into it what you may.
Even a highly urbanized Provincial area has been caught napping. Looking at the data on the often praised Davao City cases there are now running at about 600 a week. Positivity at the major hospital testing center there was 22.7% on November 14th down to the latest 13.3% on the 17th. An extreme example but it is likely to be followed in some other areas, reflecting some DOH complacency here with the fall in cases and vaccines on the horizon. |
Re: NCR llockdown
DOH announced 1,791 cases yesterday. Only 3 labs with no reports and 78% of those tested positive were recent cases. The positivity rate from the 25.4k tested was 5.5%. Tests done two days ago at 27.8k.
Top locations, not including NCR: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1310158851.jpg Davao City not, but Tarlac a surprise. Maybe just a spike. Recently had two, one earlier this month and in September. Deaths at 55, including another 13 RDs. announced. I have now found a DOH resource to track locational changes better for both deaths and cases. Will post separately later. More detail on the location of yesterday's cases tomorrow. Locational detail for November 20 cases: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...59610d0d1e.jpg Plus Cagayan 24,MIMAROPA and BARMM 12. Adjusting for recent cases NCR down to about 220, 4A to 200. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7eb17b8197.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0cda129bc1.jpg On the 20th 4A provinces all in the top 7. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c7d8335026.jpg Davao City well in the lead. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH publish weekly date of death charts for the 6 regions which have had the most cases. By cases per million it could be agued that Caraga should be substituted for Eastern Visayas.. Otherwise their selection is in line with highest cases per head. The seventh chart is for all the other regions
The DOH advise to be wary of recent death data, so we can start at the bars for October 22-28, the fifth from the right. Interactively one is able to get a 4 week average deaths number for each week for each region. Conveniently the estimated total 2020 population of the six selected regions adds up to about half of the Philippines total population. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f70fc55f93.jpg Results: For October 22-28 total deaths in the 6: 155 For Other Regions: 63 Percentage of total deaths in the 6 Epicenters: 71%. A starting figure to be updated weekly to see if there is any regional spread. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday nearly 2k extra cases, only 65% recent, Tests done were at 23k at 5,5% positive. Testing two days ago at 29.2k.
For top 5 locations: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4d25821e17.jpg Latest new cases charts for the nation: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...62048af6fd.jpg and the NCR: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7840f68c21.jpg Both showing steady declines but recently levelling off. Typhoon related? More economic activity? Deaths at 43 The Philippines case fatality rising to 1.93%, while the world rate falling to 2.4%. Mass recoveries yesterday 11k. So active cases 24.2 k. A small reduction from a week ago at 25.7k. Critical at 1,404, down from 1,429 yesterday. More location detail for the November 21 cases: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e1f4c5271e.jpg Plus Region 3: Central Luzon 362 (disputed) BARMM 15, MIMAROPA 9. Estimates for recent cases: NCR about 250, 4A 230. For the NCR cities: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...29325a42ca.jpg For provinces: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3ddb88f2a2.jpg Tarlac disputed their high Nov 21 figure with the DOH. No reply yet from the DOH. Again all 5 4A provinces in the top 10. No top 20 city chart available. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Similar to the post yesterday on regional deaths here is a similar exercise on the regional spread of cases.
The only difference is that we can start a week later: https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...219f39fca1.jpg Four week moving average of cases by date of start of illness. Figures from the original DOH charts can be read interactively. For the week October 29 to November 4 the 6 top regions, accounting for about half the population, had 7,126 cases. The other regions had 3,234 cases. So the top 6 regions had 69% of total cases. From yesterday's post they had 71% of deaths. To be updated. Can't report tomorrow but should be able to post again on Wednesday. |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases from the DOH on November 23 were 1,799 with 7 labs not reporting. Of those only 853 were recent (47%).out of 19.2k tests. Positivity down at 4.4%. Tests for 22nd at 21.1k.
Top 5 locations not including NCR: https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...35839d0a6a.jpg Deaths at 50, 16 of which were RDs. Critical at 1,421. Locational detail for November 21: NCR 195,053 514 https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...af30a74fe0.jpg Plus 25 other Mindanao. NCR about 330 recent. Region 4A about 260 recent. For the NCR: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c68745a451.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f1013ead25.jpg Top 20 cities/municipalities. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...662d4c8544.jpg Will comment on November 23 and 24 together in my next post on November 24 announcements. Except to say nothing yet from the DOH on the disputed 211 Tarlac cases for November 21. Some of you might remember a similar dispute some months ago between the DOH and QC over the ownership of a much larger number of cases. Nothing more was heard about that. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday, November 24, 1,118 new cases announced. Eleven labs did not report. Total cases now over 421k. Cases were only 77% recent and positivity was at 5.3%. Over 16k tests were done.
Top 5 locations, not including NCR: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...398b28f1cb.jpg More detail tomorrow. Deaths at 12 with 6 RDs. Critical at 1,418. More locational detail on November 23 cases: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...29dd1526de.jpg Other Mindanao 36, Bicol and MIMAROPA both 16. Estimated about 210 and 200 for NCR and 4A recent cases. For the NCR: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...856593fb4f.jpg Paranaque 17, Las Pinas 13 https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...baeaabd3ea.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cc41261a51.jpg https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6829c7b122.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e48262798a.jpg Not my preferred charts as they are not using cases by onset and deaths at date of death, but DOH site down. Because for cases the percentage of recent cases announced (going backwards) were 77,47,65,78,63 %....Not too misleading if cases and deaths only 2 or 3 weeks old, but in the past there have been many cases and deaths months old. Unfortunately now it is very difficult to know if that is still the case. On the face of it a continuous but gradual decline in cases but deaths, after a gradual fall, may be levelling. Recovery deaths keep coming and must surely be at 1k at least in total by now, out of the 8,185 to date. Regional and provincial location: The epicenters of NCR and 4A continue to dominate. Prominence of Central Luzon with 453 cases over 2 days. I will look at this shift from the NCR to 4A in more detail soon. For now we can see the province of Cavite top on both days. In Manila Quezon City top on both 22nd and 23rd Nov, with Davao City 2nd and 3rd. New entrant on 23rd Rodriguez(Montalban) in Rizal. It has a pop of 370k. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cca29590a2.jpg The Philippines dropping down to 27th and could soon be overtaken soon by Pakistan and even Canada: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4bd5a6b2aa.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 1,202 new cases, total now nearly 423k. Recent 83% of cases tested, which were 18.8k, Tests coming along were 26.8k on the 24th. Eight labs did not report.
Top 5 locations were: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...263667aef6.jpg More detail tomorrow. Deaths at 31, including 12 more RDs. Critical at 1,415, down just 3 on the day before. More locational details for November 24: For NCR cities: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd765cb2e6.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b6804f99ef.jpg Plus Bicol 14, E Visayas 12, Other Mindanao 13 and MIMAROPA 6. Recent estimate for NCR 200. For 4A about 180. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...361e49ca1f.jpg Unusual to see Quezon Province top. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a0079d718a.jpg Quezon province and two of its municipalities featuring in the two tables above. Looking at Quezon's cases chart...oh dear! https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e8ab49fa3a.jpg For a change a look at the situation in Manila through this DOH table: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fa85bfaad8.jpg Attack rate is simply the percentage of cases of population. The figures in the new cases column are puzzling and no explanation given. Maybe some sort of average. The leaders by number of cases won't surprise anyone reading reports here regularly. More useful are the attack rates. Forgetting Pateros, which is small and not even a city, we have the leader San Juan, then Pasay, Makati, Navotas, Mandaluyong and Malabon. Then a gap before we get to the rest. Makati at 2.16% may be a surprise to some of you. QC, Manila and Caloocan often top the daily case counts but have not been infected as much as other areas when their populations are taken into account. Pasig well in the lead on fatality rate followed by Valenzuala. Also above the national fatality rate of just under 2% are Malabon, Marikina, San Juan, Makati, Manila, Mandaluyong and Caloocan Cities, in descending order. Pasig City definitely an outlier on fatality given one of the lower infection rates in the NCR. The city and its mayor have been praised for its covid response.. I can only guess that perhaps its medical facilities are a factor. |
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