Re: NCR llockdown
 

As you say JG it's still too early in the season to talk about titles. I would see there being a number of titles. Some teams are playing in a league of the advanced economies, others are in lower leagues where much less is expected of them. There are regional leagues too.

The Trump managed team is doing a Liverpool, with all the advantages the US has to fight the virus. Trump has been actively sabotaging the team in his single minded pursuit of 4 more years in power, supported by some state governors and 35 to 40% of the population. At the minimum he has 5 more months in charge to get many more points. Even after January nearly half the country might refuse a vaccine. Many because of his distrust of science. Brazil is similar, but the country is viewed as not quite on a par with the main industrialised economies yet, so less is expected. India, led by a right wing authoritarian, hundreds of millions in poverty, but with nuclear weapons, is a top contender too.

The Philippines team manager started off the season with a strong lockdown game plan. Military in nature, but not adaptable enough to fight a tricky virus.Just lately his team has been getting into the top ten tables for one day record cases and deaths. The latest was for August 30. To combat this the manager will probably use the tactic of not following through on increased testing promises. Concentrate more on the derby with Indonesia about who is the worst in ASEAN.

Football teams at the lower level often cultivate links with bigger teams. In the case of the Philippines:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-hero-is-putin

who is going to help with a new scientific approach. Despite all that the manager has been firm on not opening schools for face to face tuition and has been slow, maybe too slow, on re-opening the economy. If he leaves it to the health experts and just puts his mind on Mindanao military matters, with a young population and lowish death toll, I don't think it will be a complete disaster here. Just bad.

Yes, small surprise teams like Peru and Belgium can easily get into the headlines. Countries that seem to have done many of the right things but the virus still takes hold. Some countries also can surprise with a sudden dip in form. Already we have France, S Korea..Hong Kong...even the much praised New Zealand. As countries try to re-open their economies we can expect more to have similar reverses in form.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Back on the domestic front the Philippines has had a regular day...7 day average of daily new cases up to 3,800. Deaths 7 day average up to 80.

Some quality of data issues...

Nationwide, 26 of the new cases reported today came from way back.. March to June. Seven of those from March!

Five of the 39 deaths reported yesterday came from March to July.

Testing done yesterday was just over 31k from 97 out of 110 labs. The DOH always show the cumulative number of tests, which looks good at about 2.5m to date. But there is a resurgence of the virus and they need to do more than they are doing now, judging by positivity rates and hospital occupancy levels.

The DOH yesterday had Pampanga as the fifth top province for new cases with 116. Whereas elsewhere in their data one can see only a handful of cases. We await a reaction from the provincial authorities on that.

Still no resolution on the 10,000 or so cases attributed to QC by the DOH, but not accepted by QC. As a report on this was only carried by Rappler and the Manila Bulletin this issue hasn't become well known.

There's the demise of ABS-CBN TV and now reports that the Inquirer might be cutting back. Less and less critical media on covid when it is most needed.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Usual problems here. Up to end 1st Sept National DOH has Western Visayas as having had 5409 cases, Western Visayas DOH have them having had 4842 cases. Where is there a truthful and up to date case data site for province by province.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

But that would imply someone actually knowing the correct number to report.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Stokkevn...as of yesterday the DOH had W. Visayas adding 164 cases to make 5568 total. Implying yesterday was 5404. The small discrepancy from your 5409 probably due to "data cleaning". W Visayas the fourth highest region yesterday for new cases.

It's often commented that many of the forms accompanying lab test results are incomplete. I suspect when it comes to attributing positive results to regions or cities the local health authorities will apply stricter criteria than the DOH. After all local officials do not want blame from Manila and ultimately a visit from a task force general if they start showing increases in cases relative to other regions or cities. If there is a continuation over many weeks of a region applying different criteria on regional location a large difference could build up. An extreme case of this is shown by QC. A difference of 10k. Yesterday the DOH reported just 16 cases out of 3,483 that they couldn't attribute to a region. You could say the DOH is "the devil you know" here as they are also in the business of trying to spin their statistics at times.

Gazza is pointing out that all the official data is just a base to assess the scale of the outbreak. An analysis of US excess deaths due to covid came out recently. Deaths much higher than recorded. Though the US has a very good health statistical reporting system. When there are cover ups whistle blowers come out and expose them. This was the case in Republican governed Florida two months ago. The lady in question left her post and was interviewed on CNN. She said she is going to set up an independent stats dashboard to monitor coviid in schools as they are pushed to re-open. Something the federal government under Trump is, for obvious reasons, not doing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases yesterday were just below 2k. The last day that happened was July 26. The day before a lower than usual 2,218.

Daily test positivity nationwide was at 9.4%, so below 10%, a level which is often seen as the start of the danger zone. For the last week in August the average daily figures were at 11.7% nationwide and a higher 13.9% for the NCR.

Deaths yesterday were at 65, but the day before 27.

As always for deaths and especially new cases backlogs have to be taken into account. Yesterday new cases as far back as March were reported Nationwide...18.1% of nationwide cases were from before August 20. For the NCR the share was 19.7%.

So some signs of movement in the right direction.

UP statisticians have made some forecasts:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...59a2057bbd.jpg
A big range with each of the lines reflecting different assumptions. The effect of changing the NCR Quarantine, the reproduction rate, weather, Undas, Xmas etc

The blue mean line reaches to about 580k by the end of the year. But if we continued at about 2k a day total cases would get to around a lower 450K. The better lower green line adds about 1,600 a day.

If we could get back to the June levels of less than 1k a day then an outcome below the green line is very possible. But in July daily cases quickly grew into the thousands on NCR re-opening. So again that will be the most important factor. Expect some revised forecasts after a few more weeks of this latest re-opening in the NCR and surrounding region.

Last...good they use the word "detected"!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin,
Very good and extremely informative.
Any relaxation in quarantine conditions will see an increase in new cases. Witness France, Spain, Germany, UK and others in Europe in the lasts two weeks.
Yesterdays announcement on employment will only increase calls to relax restrictions.
Times will continue to be challenging.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Thank you again, B.

Those European countries and the US had summer related cases. Here in the NCR area it's going to be people getting more out to work and shop. Then later on what will happen with gatherings? Work is still quite restricted in the NCR under GCQ. Though less so in the surrounding industrial provinces under MGCQ. In the run up to Xmas people will be out more, but this year they have a lot less to spend. Do they have the usual enthusiasm? Department stores, appliance stores around here were nearly empty when we last went in late August.

Restaurants have no ambiance. Quarantine passes allow only one person in,as under MECQ, a rule which has yet to be take off. Some stores require people to wait in outside lines. Most people in the NCR work in the service industries but how many will get their jobs and previous hours back?

So I think even if more restrictions are relaxed due to lobbying by business there won't be much effect.

All this seems to me to be mostly good for controlling covid. The economy will have to wait.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Had a discussion with some of my Filipino neighbours earlier this morning. We all agree that this government is about enforcement and NOT education, hence the air of paranoia.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The DOH reported 3,714 new cases yesterday (88% recent). The NCR 1,797 (83% recent)
Nationwide positivity slipped back to over 10%.
So the improvement so far this week has had a reverse.
Why? Testing may have increased from a recent average of around 35k individuals per day? The DOH can now get reports from 3 more labs. We will know that tomorrow, And/or it cold be the result of changes in the locations of mass testing.
By early next week it should be clear whether there is an established downward trend.

Deaths were at 49 Nationwide , 31 of those from the NCR.
Nationwide May to July there were 9 deaths! One can only conclude that reviews of death certificates are taking place and finding the cause of death incorrect. Although a drop from yesterday the deaths trend is better established.

Here are charts for new cases and deaths up to Sep 3:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...aebd4b3480.png
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8271ea2182.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A continuation yesterday of better news with 2,529 nationwide cases. NCR 1,171. Backog about 15%. The thing about these daily case backlogs is that many have already recovered.
Noteworthy that Bacolod City had more cases (253) than any city in MM.
Deaths at 53 nationwide, slightly up on yesterday.
Five more labs are now being used than at the start of September. We will soon see if that has had any effect on the average number of tests this month.

The DOH put out this announcement about their improved case fatality rate, down to 1.6%:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-to-1-6/story/

Good to read that the Philippines is using some newly available treatments, but the rate of 1.6% is flattering due to the likelihood of many undetected cases here.
Also the age distribution of the population is favourable to a low CFR. John Hopkins has this infographic on Spain, S Korea, China and Italy's CFRs by age group:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4be30de1b7.png
Clearly showing dramatic increases as age increases.

South Korea also has the same CFR as the Philippines.

The latest % age distribution estimations for both countries are:

Years Philippines S Korea
0-9 21 8
10-19 19 9
20-29 18 13
30-39 14 14
40-49 11 17
50-59 9 17
60-69 5 12
70-79 2 7
80+ 1 3

S Korea can be seen to have as older population. It is likely to have many fewer undetected cases than the Philippines so its CFR of 1.6% looks realistic.
The lowish Philippine figure is not reliable in the first place due to undetected cases and nevertheless should be lower on the official CFR table due its age advantage. Casting doubts on treatment.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The life expectancy of 71 in the Philippines compared to 83 in South Korea will be a factor giving a higher old age rate of fatalities in South Korea. Not the Philippines doing better.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday new cases up a bit at 2,839 (81% recent). Of those the NCR at 1,170, 41% of the total. Not so long ago Manila was consistently contributing the majority of daily new cases.
However, the provinces near Manila.."Calabarzon" are now providing 15 to 25% Cavite and Laguna have many industrial areas, and have seen more activity under a move to a modified GCQ.
Deaths up at 85 with the NCR recording just under half of them. Again with a long tail going back to March.

Sunday is "Recovery Day" for the DOH....over 23k were removed from the active total (cases net of recoveries and deaths).

The DOH give prominence to the active case total but it's not a measure that's respected much due to international differences in defining recoveries. But the record of Sunday active cases going back to August 2 gives a measure of the burden of the pandemic. Backlogs in deaths are unfortunately included, but do not affect the picture much:

Yesterday: 48,803.....then 56,473......55,286.....46,002......59,970.....35,5 69

A significant recent fall following a rise in the second half of August.

Looking at the last week compared with (the one before):

7 day growth rate in news cases 1.5% (2.7%)
3,063/day (3,693/day)
Deaths 371 (492) 53/day (70/day)
Reproduction number: 0.86 to 0.88 (0.95 +/-).

So a significant improvement.....but with the proviso that the positivity rate is still above the danger level of 10% nearly every day and so instead of doing about 33k tests a day we should probably be doing 50-60k. But as a contributor here, RedApe, commented some weeks ago the country probably isn't up to doing that level of testing! A shame because the outbreak will likely take much longer to get under full control. After that unexpected spikes may occur. Like the one the UK is having now. Hospitals in the NCR and Calabarzon will be still operating for covid at near critical levels too.

The usual expert commentators are getting a mite over excited recently. One here...a UP mathematics professor.. is putting too much weight on the R number. Tracking and tracing is very poor, especially in the NCR epicentre, so R estimates will be unreliable. The R number needs to be well below one and stable over a longer period to maintain a downward trend. Also, talking about the virus "petering out" is unwise as many of the epidemiologists I have listened to think it may stick around like the 'flu.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/06/...-curve-analyst

I don't watch local tv or listen to radio, but I doubt if the interviewers...those left...challenge these experts much.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

As 27 labs failed to submit reports on time yesterday's reports give a very incomplete picture. You never see a full house of 115 reports... the day before 19 labs failed to submit.....but this was unusually low. No explanation forthcoming from the DOH.
For what it's worth 1,383 new cases reported nationwide.
Deaths at 15, of which 11 were from the NCR. Ten of those from July and before!

Anyway, these charts show the officially reported situation up to September 6:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...36cd26fc7d.png
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a83cb5e65d.png
An interesting ABS-CBN report showing how widespread the virus is, something suggested by a nationwide positivity rate of above 10%

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/07/...s-than-a-month

Another ABS-CBN report which illustrates well how many task force measures end up getting implemented. Think the police are going to get a lot of tip offs from people who want to get back at others for some reason:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/07/...ine-violations

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the DOH reported another 3,281 cases...but they only came from 81 out of the 115 labs. That's another 7 labs not reporting yesterday. The list of the 34 labs not reporting contains many that didn't report the day before, so are many labs taking a break? No reason given by the DOH. The docile press here not talking about it.

Hopefully important decisions will not be taken until the unreported results come out.

The NCR contributed 43% of cases, Calabarzon 30%

There were 26 deaths, 9 from the NCR. Expect many more in the weeks to come as there now are about 1,700 patients nationwide currently in a severe/critical condition.

Even allowing for the probable under-reporting of cases lately there is an improvement compared with mid August. All regions except 2 in Mindanao are showing a significant drop in 7 day average case growth. On August 15 the NCR was at 3.6%, on Sep 8 it is at 0.94%

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A better level of submission from labs yesterday. The DOH has been trying to improve on the number and accuracy of the details many of them have been entering on its data site. It gave them a time out to comply and is "naming and shaming" them in its daily bulletin. Yesterday 105 out of 117 reported. But 12 are still listed as not complying. It's unclear yet what effect all this has had on submissions this week. The DOH has said be prepared for an increase in positive cases. Though the figures yesterday were actually quite moderate:

3,176 cases nationwide, but only 2,793 from August 27 on (383 from March to August 26!)

Of the recent cases 40% were from NCR, 26.1% Calabarzon.

Deaths were at 70, 36 of those in NCR. About 1,700 patients are at severe/critical.
But compare with Indonesia's 100 reported deaths. They're in tenth position worldwide on September 8 for daily deaths.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ories-catch-up

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Another 3,821 cases announced yesterday from the 105 labs who reported. The DOH still naming the labs not submitting. Whether that is because they are not complying with the DOH's new standards or just for operational reasons we don't know. Nearly all of them now seem to be provincial. A good change is that recently more tests being done. Recently about 41k individuals from the previous average of around 35k.

Of the 3,821 cases only 3,277 came after Aug 28. The NCR owned 53% of them......an increase on previous days. With the latest weekly positivity rate there at 12.2% it's hardly surprising that the NCR keeps producing that many new cases.

Deaths at 80 nationwide, but 24 were from May to July. In the NCR there were 35 reported, but 10 of those were from May to July.

The latest 7 day moving average charts:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2c4a3eb18d.png
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...494df48480.png

Last, the Philippines close to overtaking Germany. Italy is at 19th position with 283k cases. Not shown here but notable is that the Philippines, even allowing for some reduction being applied this coming weekend, has a relatively high number of active cases at nearly 59k, compared to Germany with 17k, Italy 36k. Significantly larger even allowing for definition differences,

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d955abdf17.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I wonder if Philippines will catch up to France with 8000+ cases yesterday!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Maybe not as both France and Spain showing a major surge. But looks like we are on either a bumpy plateau or a bumpy moderate lowering?

Last 2 weeks cases/100,000 population in Europe:

Spain 263
France 135
UK 40
Italy 32
Germany 21

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday just over 4k new cases nationwide announced, but a third of those were those whose onset of illness was before August 28 and stretched back to March.

For the NCR the situation was the same...1,813 cases announced but only 1,196 are recent, Aug 29 to Sep 11. That's 43% of the nationwide recent cases.

So for the NCR the Aug 1-28 backlog alone was 31% of yesterday's announced cases.

Calabarzon owned 23% of total recent cases with Cavite having the greatest number.

Improvements with testing and lab reporting were reported. The number of individuals tested got up to 50k a day on Wednesday. Just 6 labs, not 12 as the DOH previously reported, didn't report on Sep 10. But then yesterday the DOH made no report on the lab submission level!

Nationwide deaths were at 42, with 15 from the NCR. Half of the latter a backlog from Aug to March!

There are a number of factors here which lead to one thinking the outbreak is far worse than shown by the official data...eg low testing, high positivity rates, under -reporting. But the large backlogs in reporting make it look worse...bad for decision making and the PR aspect of how the pandemic is being handled.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3e08bf7b8a.png

The latest daily German increase was about 1,600 so it won't be long before we overtake them.

After that Italy is in view (now at 284k cases) if things don't improve here soon.......but only if Italy manages to control their recent uptick in cases. Overtaking Italy would be bad from a PR point of view, given that Italy was an international pandemic epicenter earlier this year.

Indonesia is well behind the Philippines in reported cases but our ASEAN neighbour was placed ninth in yesterday's global newly announced deaths table. Looks like their health system is even worse than the one here. Their case fatality rate is now at 4%, the Philippines' is at 1.6%. Only on deaths per million does it do better...31 compared to the Philippines at 37.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases yesterday nearly reaching 5k nationwide. The DOH has warned to expect exceptionally high numbers following the data disruption a few days ago . However, since 82% yesterday are recent we should be concerned about this number of new infections. For the NCR there was more backlog as recent cases were 77% of the total, giving 2,025 recent cases. Only one lab did not report. Sounds much better but the DOH do not ever say what percentage of their testing capacity they report on any day.

The number of deaths reported nationwide was unusually high at 186. But 126 of these were recovered cases now found out to have died! We have seen this daily adjustment before on a much smaller scale. Between June 12 and August 21 ABS-CBN report that 309 recoveries were re-classified as deaths (see link below). The NCR contributed 100 of yesterday's deaths....51 from July back to April. This high one day figure will raise eyebrows around the world and most who see it will not know the main reason. But probably Ok as long as the DOH doesn't make a habit of announcing so many on one day.

Germany just had 822 more infections yesterday, so we get much closer in the league of total cases.

Indonesia continued to report a high number of deaths...106 more.

Still a bit too early to say whether the Philippines curve is really flattening or fattening.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/12/...t-to-be-deaths

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Assuming a similar fatality rate across the world the Philippines is under reporting the number of deaths by half. And adding all these late number from the early days of the pandemic just shows that now the cat is out the bag they were hiding the numbers in the early days.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"And adding all these late number from the early days of the pandemic just shows that now the cat is out the bag they were hiding the numbers in the early days."
Are you surprised? One of the problems is that local authorities make up their own rules. I really don't think that the severe looking PNP Lt General in charge creates the right atmosphere. I'll touch more on this in a couple of days.
Serious cases worldwide are about 15% and surprisingly the old farts do particularly well. Existing medical conditions and obesity are the killers. The UK has the highest obesity rates in Europe hence a contributing factor to the very high mortality rates attributed to COVID. What can we say about the Land of the Donald huge levels of obesity and diabetes.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Getting on for 500 of those succumbing to covid seem to have been recorded as recoveries. An amazing number and there could be more to come. I tend to go along with both of you replying that it is a cover up and agree with you, Bea, about local health authorities. Not wishing to cause panic locally? Or bring down the Manila task force on them? If some of them are doing that you wonder about other statistics.
Whistle blowers don't fare well here and so with a docile media we may never know the real motivation.
On fatality rates I read somewhere that neighbouring Indonesia's is not only high due to their poor health system. It also has one of the highest male smoking rates in the world...a main reason for cardiac disease, hypertension and diabetes.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

And the high smoking rate, cardiac disease, hypertension in the Philippines where 1/3 of the population has diabetes. Oh and the poor health system, say no more.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday added 3,372 cases nationwide with NCR 1,307..a smaller percentage (39) of the total than usual. Backlog in NCR at a lowish 18%. But 10 labs didn't report.
As it was Sunday, the DOH day for mass recovery reporting , 20k recoveries were reported.

Deaths were 79...NCR 23, W Visayas 17, Calabarzon 10. Seven deaths in the NCR occurred in July/Aug, 7 in the W Visayas wee from August. Eight recoveries were deleted and removed from lists....probably another way of quietly saying they were deaths.

Comparing last week with (the week before):

Cases daily average: 3,328 (3,063)
Deaths 72 (53)
R 1.0 (0.87)

So a U turn in cases two weeks after a stricter lockdown lifted. Backlogs do complicate the view but they fell towards the end of last week and if that is maintained it will be easier to see the trend next week.
The deaths number was greatly affected by the surprise 126 recoveries reclassified as deaths.
But the number of those severe and critical keeps rising so we can expect the trend of increasing deaths to continue
We're testing more...the most recent daily figure was over 36k individuals and the nationwide positivity rate is on a gradual downward trend and below 10%. But for the NCR it is certainly still well above that recognised danger level. (figures not available at present) Daily tests above 40k have occurred a few times but we need to raise the average above 40k, even with a decline in positivity.

Another way to look at the situation is the number of Sunday active cases:

13 Sep: 49,277
6 Sep: 48,803

A slight worsening.

Internationally on cases the Philippines briefly overtook Germany, and Italy, presently at 287k+ is in sight this week:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...30034c2aff.png

Stop press: Germany came out with 752 more cases so has regained 21st place by a whisker, But the Philippines will certainly regain 21st place tomorrow.
Unfair that Indonesia will not also soon accompany them as they are doing much less testing. One third of the level here in relation to population.

People around the world will see this country above Israel with "only" 155k+ cases at 24th position but now going into a second lockdown. And not far from Iraq, Turkey and Pakistan...countries with a poor reputation for government.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases yesterday nationwide 4,699, with 87% recent. Fifteen labs not reporting too. For the NCR 1498 with 74% recent. So cases are on the up, although the 26% backlog for NCR may mean the disruption caused by DOH efforts to improve the data is still affecting the numbers there. Another data issue showing today is that 25% of all cases nationally could not be assigned to a region!

The "highlight" of the day was the 259 deaths. Of those 207 (86%) came from July and August. Why so high? Well, the DOH also announced that they have removed 297 recoveries from their lists. The DOH say 253 have died with 44 still ill. The NCR owned 154 deaths...86% occurred in July and August. Then comes Central Visayas with 55 and Calabarzon with 28.

Either this is a major administrative mess up, a cover up...or perhaps a mixture of both. The DOH says the surprise figures are the result of an ongoing checking process. So we must expect more to come. The DOH Under Secretary tried to explain the now over 500 cases in total of this as the result of local delays in recording a death, in which time it can get recorded as a recovery??

As usual not much local reaction to this happening, which would be a major scandal in many countries. The task force is too busy arguing about reducing the distance between public transport passengers by 0.25m! However, these high one day spikes in death figures will certainly alert the media abroad over the next few days.Let's see what they say.

We have now overtaken Germany and Italy, only 23k or so cases ahead, will be next in a few days:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d58106c1d5.png

The virus is obviously not under control here, but one of the few metrics the Philippines was doing Ok with was deaths. Compared to Indonesia it was doing a lot better, mainly due to its younger population (average age 10 years less}, But if it can't sort out the covid deaths data soon it will not be seen as internationally credible.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Mid September and judging from official statistics the virus continues to spread at a steady rate and every day there are serious questions about the reliability of the data.

Another 3.5k new infections, but with 15 labs not reporting.
Only 690 from the NCR..a very low 19% It's usually 40-50% or so. But then 1,060 today had no known location! In fact between September 2 and 15 a third of cases had no known location!
Backlogs yesterday continued to be small compared with a month ago.....NCR 18%.

The DOH continued its checking of recoveries....of 538 it was found that 2 had died and 536 were still active cases. So yesterday not a huge, mysterious death tally like the day before. But still concerning. If cases got reinfected they should be reported as such. Or were they never recoveries in the first place? More deaths from recoveries turning up seem likely. My guess is that the DOH are going around the country doing these recovery checks ...in some places record keeping is better than others and in a few they may be concealing the true situation.

Deaths yesterday 34, with hardly any backlog. Of those 13 from NCR and 5 Calabarzon.

Expect more soon as there are now over 2,300 patients severe and critical. That's a jump of about 700 on the previous day's figure!! Hardly credible. So are hospitals consistently not reporting patient condition?

Reports of testing also make you wonder.....the latest figures from the start of this week give the number of individuals tested last Sunday at avery low 23k, But on Monday a record 56K.

Seven day average new cases chart up to Sep 14:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b143511683.png


The DOH are proud that their estimate of the Reproductive number is just below the borderline value of 1.0, below which the outbreak will eventually cease to spread. But R estimates are based on data from contact tracing, which is acknowledged by health experts to be poor. Also it is a national figure and ideally we need good estimates for the epicenter NCR. The UP group are optimistically claiming it is as low as 0.92:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...below-1/story/

For positivity we are still at just under 10% nationwide with the NCR probably a few percent above that. Unfortunately the DOH seem to have stopped publishing positivity figures from NCR labs. The UP group are saying 11%, but just two weeks ago it was much higher. The WHO say that an outbreak is under control when positivity is down to 5% consistently.

The Philippines featuring in the top ten in two tables. for Sep 14. As the recent very large death tally was due to a hopefully one off spike I will just show the latest new cases table:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...99e6b62b02.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/15/...ggest-strength

What? I counted 28 countries in Asia alone who have tested more per million of population than the Philippines. Many with a comparable population size.

Of those there are 6 who currently have total cases greater or just a little less (Israel) than the Philippines.

The best we can say is that testing quantity here has improved lately to 30k to 40k a day. But it needs to be higher as the positive rate is around 10%.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Almost the same number of new infections as yesterday, just over 3.5k with 84% recent. Seven labs out of the 126 now operating did not report.
NCR about 1,500 cases...259 of them going back from Aug to March. Calabarzon with just under a thousand cases and 100 or so of them a backlog.

Again a large number of cases, more than a thousand, cannot be tagged regionally. Presumably mostly displaced persons.

Deaths 69 nationwide with 24 NCR and 19 Calabarzon. Again recoveries went to deaths, but "only" 9.

After adjustments for recoveries and deaths active cases now total over 60k.

Testing at a modest 31k recently, with nationwide positivity still around 10%.

So, despite signs of a downward trend late last month cases are now on an upward path again as the economy reopens and people get tired of restrictions. This is illustrated well by a graph of the Reproductive number estimates (R). R is not easy to estimate, especially here, but changes in it lagged by 5 days can be seen to be in step with changes in cases both this month and back in July:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...335cd6a9d5.png
Internationally the Philippines is working it's way up the table of new cases:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4bfac19108.png

Indonesia is on the way to 10.000 deaths as its hospitals are reaching their limits. Isolation and ICU beds full:

https://apnews.com/c07d086268c2ea0241c3a90b876541fa

We're not in that situation at present. But yesterday there were 2,350 severe and critical covid patients, 50 more than the day before. At the start of the month about 1,500. Our death toll, added to by past incorrect data, will continue to compare unfavourably with Indonesia's when the big difference in population is taken into account...Indonesia has two and a half times more people. Deaths per million here are currently at 43, compared with Indonesia at 33.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Two issues with opening up the economy showing the opposing forces involved:

1. Social distancing in public transport:

The Dept of Transport want to ease the Manila commuter problem caused by the 1 meter rule and most traditional Jeeps not coming back. At first by reducing the distance to 0.75m. This has been opposed by a group of experts from UP. And by the Interior Secretary, Ano. But supported by another group of experts:

https://mb.com.ph/2020/09/15/medical...alize-economy/

I much prefer their approach. Masks plus shields with air flow should be Ok for distances even less than 0.75m, but the mindset to aim for 100% safety continues. Other Asian countries who have done much better than here allow side to side sitting.

So at first 0.75m was going to be the new rule. Now it's back to 1m while the decision is up to the President.

2. Visits to Tagaytay

A few days ago the authorities in Tagaytay announced you could now visit there without a travel pass. Vital as the city has had a disastrous year with the Taal volcano eruption and the pandemic. Last weekend many people from Manila did day trips there.Then Lt General Eleazar Covid shield commander, said no...only if you're from Cavite. From Manila you can't without a travel permit...issued with difficulty only for certain reasons. Now the Cavite governor has reversed that:

https://mb.com.ph/2020/09/17/travel-...s-gov-remulla/

Let's see if that is the end of the matter.

Many small vendors must be suffering greatly there. Tagaytay has very few cases and you would think the type of people visiting there won't be much of a risk.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Another 3,375 new cases nationwide yesterday with the NCR unusually less than 30%. With only 77% cases recent.

Deaths at 54 nationally with 33 of those in July and August. NCR at 25 with 12 in July and August.

DOH examination of more past recoveries shows 11 were deaths and 56 active cases!

There could be more cases if testing was higher. Recently around 31K/day.

The Philippines belongs to a group of countries , including Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany and Greece in Europe. In Asia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Malaysia. Where the virus is recorded as being at a low level per head but where cases are increasing. Showing the second highest relative increase to Sweden...but their curve has fallen recently whereas ours is still increasing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday was another day with more than 3k new cases in the country. Although a large number of Labs, 20 out of 128, not reporting. But until we know their size we can't tell how important that missing 20 would be.

Recent cases were 81% nationally. The NCR again providing a low 31%, (82% recent) other regions making up the rest..Bulacan, Cavite, Negros Occ and Cebu. Again a sizeable fraction could not be tagged to a region( 11%.) it looks like new cases are on the decline in the NCR.

Deaths 47 nationally with 23 of those from the NCR and 11 Calabarzon. Backlogs skewing the picture again as in the NCR 16 of the deaths occurred in July and August.
One death is not now a death and 24 recoveries have been removed from the list The DOH don't say what catergories they went into!

The day before yesterday there were about 2,400 patients severe/critical....yesterday it was 2,440. Every day recently an addition of 40 or 50.
For some reason testing recently has spiked...from a low 30k or so individuals a day to 50k.
Daily positivity down to just below 10% both nationally and in the NCR labs.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...575a6dc2bc.png

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4c3baa48ae.png

The Tagaytay visit disagreement I mentioned two days ago has been resolved. The task force Lt General has explained visitors from Manila are not allowed unless they apply for a travel pass from the police and get a health certificate. Trumping the Tagaytay City mayor, the wealthy owners of hotels and restaurants there and the Cavite mayor. All because one area is in a GCQ and another MGCQ. Actually there's not much difference between the two types of Quarantine. Metro Manila is such a large area with a very large population so it seems to me to be not sensible to apply one national quarantine to it. Just yesterday in the UK a large area of NE England got a new lockdown...but the population and area involved is a lot less. Figures are available for the various cities of Metro Manila eg Quezon City and Manila both have high case counts, but other cities many less. There are also many localized lockdowns going on too.

It would be more complicated but there could be different rules for NCR cities and lockdown areas for activities like travel?

https://www.philstar.com/nation/2020...nly-mgcq-areas

Re: NCR llockdown
 

More lack of common sense and a misunderstanding of the rules

https://coconuts.co/manila/news/over...out-face-mask/

Paranaque says you should wear a mask in public places.
Malacanang says in GCQ outside your residence.

I would have thought a front yard is not public and is part of your residence.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

As an aside the purchase of Dolomite from Cebu for the very time limited beautification of Manila Bay is proving to be very expensive. Surely the priority should have been to reallocate the funds to the underresourced COVID programme.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Nearly 4k cases yesterday nationally although there was a 17% backlog and 10 labs didn't report. In the NCR 1,440, just 36% of the total. Consistently lately well below the 50% mark it used to be at. Calabarzon at 780 contributing 20% So, the NCR not such an epicentre lately, but adding in adjacent Calabarzon could be seen to make a new national epicentre.

Deaths at 100 nationally, with 52 in the NCR and 14 Calabarzon. :Large backlog....27 of the NCR deaths occurred April to August.

Latest testing at around 40k a day. Positivity just under 10% in Manila and nationwide.

Making allowances for backlogs continued moderate increases in both cases and deaths to be seen.
The pandemic here now more equally spread in Central Luzon and the Visayas.

Internationally the Philippines steadily gaining on Italy in the widely publicized total cases table. Likely to overtake the past world epiicenter next week.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d3c5a56575.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Agree, especially as people can't safely swim in the polluted water.

But cost P400m, a lot less than the President's yearly confidential intelligence funds at P4.5bn. Coronavirus vaccines for frontliner;s next year in the DOH budget at P2.5bn.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Again, nationally over 3k new cases with 84% recent and only 7 labs not reporting. NCR again with well under half the cases (82% recent).

Sunday is the DOH's Mass Recovery Day with 20k recoveries announced yesterday.

There were 55 deaths nationally with 29 from the NCR. Of those NCR deaths over half were from July and August!

After adjusting for recoveries and deaths Active cases are up yesterday on the Sunday before by over 2,500. Showing an increased pressure on the health system.

Looking at weekly changes:

The average weekly cases went up by over 300.
The seven day average deaths rose from 72 to 91 (and the previous week's total included a large number (126) late reported).
There was a significant rise,,5 to 7.1% in fatalities in the 20-39 age group.
The R number rose from 1.0 to 1.15.

Also...latest positivity rates increasing. The latest show 9.5% nationally, 10.3% NCR.

Allowing for backlogs as usual we see a continued steady increase in both cases and deaths lately mainly in the NCR, Calabarzon and Central Luzon, where most of the country's economic activity takes place. Test data shows we need to test more than the 30 to 40k a day. Only on the odd day can 50k be seen even though there are now 128 labs. With our positivity rate we need to get up tp 50k a day much more often.

Good that cemeteries will be closed at Undas, but there will be some level of celebration, followed by the increased shopping and Xmas. So it seems likely the recently established trend will continue into the New Year,

Internationally, both the Philippines and Indonesia showing in the top 10 new deaths table. These two countries are also following a similar trend for cases. They announced nearly 4k more cases yesterday.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d4985fd648.png

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 3k new cases again although 24% were from July and August and just 7 labs not reporting. Which makes it look better....except Mondays after a weekend can be low.
NCR contributing only 35% ,(23% were from July and August) continuing a recent trend.

Just 15 deaths, 9 from the NCR. Low. But again it was a weekend. Also there are now over 1,700 patients reported in a critical condition. A significant recent increase.

Latest daily testing total low at under 27k. Weekend effect?

UP report their latest estimate for the R number for September 17 at 1.15, so we can expect the rise in cases to continue. Their charts are interactive:

https://endcov.ph/epidemic_curves

Interestingly using their provincial charts you can see they report the latest mean R number for the NCR at 0.99, which is borderline but encouraging for the epicenter. But higher R estimates in the areas around the NCR leading to increased new cases there as they re-open economically.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Only 1,635 new cases reported yesterday, less than half of the number the day before. With just 9 labs reporting a sudden drop like that is probably due to a drop in the amount of testing....the number of individuals tested lately has been falling to the 20k region. Another 10k tests with 10% positivity would add another 1,000 cases. All very strange as many more labs have been added over the last few weeks and the high positivity rate suggests more testing needs to be done. Reaching 40k and over has been achieved on a few days this month.

Manila contributed 583 or 36% of the total, still at around a third rather than as before a half of all daily cases.

Deaths sadly regained their previous levels with 50 nationwide. Twelve of those were a backlog back from August.
Still well over 1,700 critical patients.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...-factor/story/

The Philippines and its leader getting a low grade for its pandemic handling in this article from The Lancet.

Based on August data it says the Philippines has a moderate level of transmission. While we are below August levels now that description still seems to be a valid one.

Medical populism? Would agree there's been a certain amount of that here, but not at the level of Trump and Bolsonaro. In addition to touting unproven treatments they have actually tried to undermine efforts from their own governments, A gradual economic re-opening and no push to resume face to face classes are plusses here

Probably the worse thing here lately is the present over reliance on a hoped for vaccine in 2021 as against improving other measures now,