Re: NCR llockdown
 

The DOH have,for the first time, put out data for the NCR and Central Visayas on hospital beds for COVID patients. As of Monday they say in the NCR regular ward beds were 89% full,. Isolation beds 82% and ICU beds 69% full. Critical levels which have a bad effect on the whole hospital. Though the situation in Central Visayas was much better.

Various suggestions have been made to improve things in the NCR,. Raising the percentage of dedicated beds, temporary hospitals..... even going as far as sending patients to provincial hospitals. But this could be good. A system to link Manila hospitals to find a bed for them:

COVID patients:https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/24/...cr-other-areas

Hopefully will work but there is a mix of public and private hospitals here, differing in what they can offer and who already have their own relationships. And then there is the prevalent practice of using influence and contacts here to jump a queue.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ays-doh/story/

Maybe like many of you I know hardly anything about these sites, which have the very user friendly acronym of TTMFs! Obviously they begin to defeat their purpose when they get crowded. Over 80k beds nationwide and plenty available, but the main problem is now in the NCR and its surrounding provinces,

https://rappler.com/nation/list-coro...rs-philippines

This April Rappler article shows just a few thousand beds at that time in Manila and nearby.areas. Must be many more now. It lists some sites for future TTMFs, including the Quezon Memorial Circle and the Duty Free in Paranaque. The latter seemed quiet when we passed by it recently so don't think it is being used at present.

It says that the running of these facilities is shouldered by "private partners". I doubt if that is still the case, at least for many of the sites, a few months later. Must be costing a fortune.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Interesting to note that the daily declaration of new cases has dropped from around 2200 to around 1800. If accurate a positive trend. I have my doubts.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Search on either Google or Bing and you will see a very erratic graph of new cases. True, there were some recent days with over 2000,to 2,200 and now it's somewhat less. My suspicious mind is thinking of the SONA, but it could be more to do with the lab reporting.
There's 90 or 91 labs working and the number of them reporting each day over the last week are, going forward, 75,78,78,66,59.81,83. Varied a lot, and most important we're not told their capacity. A small glimmer of hope is that the last two days average is 1,776 and there were a high number of labs reporting on both days.
But with a daily positivity rate likely still to be higher than 13% in the NCR it's probably too early to be hopeful. The WHO say that after 5% an outbreak is out of control.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/30/...uterte-comment

In his recent SONA the Philippine President said he wants to create a body similar to the CDC in the US. Called the Disease Prevention & Management Agency. But then he's not sure..he will leave it to Congress. Anyway, it would be under the DOH and not separate. Meanwhile the DOH is proposing the Philippines Center for Disease Control and Prevention...and there are already bills in Congress on that! Confusion reigns.
You wonder where they will get all the expert staff, unless they come from existing agencies, academia and the DOH . Hopefully they won't try to set it up now, when these people are fighting the outbreak and the civil servants need to focus on current administrative matters
The CDC in the US used to have a great deal of autonomy, but in recent times its authority has been greatly diminished by the administration. With a more authoritarian type of government here it seems any new body will be advisory only and the public will know even less than the US public does about what advice its CDC is giving in the middle of any future disease outbreaks. The DOH will still be in charge.
You would also think it sensible to wait until the Covid outbreak is under control here so lessons can be learned before setting up any new body. The only good thing is that the rush to change at least shows they can see what they have done so far hasn't worked well.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The latest declaration of nearly 4000 new COVID-19 cases confirms my doubts about data reporting and collection. It has always been apparent with the spasmodic patterns of new declarations that something was amiss.
Sadly the demon of administration, mountains of paperwork and the inability of those in positions of authority to accept any responsibility have worked against the well being and protection of the general population.
The decision to close down ABS-CBN has curtailed the transmission of timely advice to the public.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Does look bad but given the big daily variations we need to use 7 day moving averages to see the trend......but the more they look the more they will find. They want to increase testing and they're starting pooled testing soon, That will find cases more quickly. The Rainy Season seems to have at last started. That will have an effect on transmission.

The most surprising thing was the shedding of 30,000 active cases over yesterday's number in a major data clean up. Remember the "highest number of active cases in SE Asia" headlines of just a few days ago? I suppose we must applaud them, but it makes you wonder even more about the other data they put out.

Looked up the latest Philippines deaths doubling time on Our World in Data. At 56 days, similar to Iran and Sudan. Thailand and Malaysia were both at 114. For comparison, with their older populations, US at 84 and UK at 96. Philippines not that good now and its death doubling time may well worsen over the next few months.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Never mind...the President has just said it will all be over in December, when we get the vaccine from China.

So in the mean time we have to deal with Meralco bills. Gave them a good grade a few weeks ago for sending a very clear account of all the bills. But today they delivered a demand for the immediate payment of two installments, which I paid through one of their Bayad centers 3 weeks ago. So payment of the remaining installments only through the regular payment offices probably not possible .Also bills for June and July are showing online, but no paper bills delivered. So you also can't pay them easily outside. Visit to a crowded Business Center required.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I have no problems with Meralco all my transactions are online.
Going back to your earlier post concerning the 7 day moving average the pattern does still not give one confidence.
So far as the Chinese vaccine is concerned they have 1.4 billion to deal with first. Not sure who is the best manager in this crisis, The Donald or Du30?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"The decision to close down ABS-CBN has curtailed the transmission of timely advice to the public."

Indeed.Johnson,Trump,Bolsonaro,Duterte............ .......................There is a pattern emerging here.

False opinions are like counterfeit monies, struck first of all by guilty men and thereafter circulated by honest people who perpetuate the crime without knowing what they are doing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Certainly the last three have a lot in common and not to be admired or tolerated. I think the leader here has been too militaristic and slow with testing, but he isn't in the same league as the middle two in that short list. He has done or not done some things which may have helped and will be helping..He acted quickly on lockdown in Manila,, mid March until June, and has re-opened cautiously. He's not pushing face to face school tuition anywhere, even in areas with low virus. Not yet, anyway.

Even if ABS-CBN hadn't been taken off for the viewing of most people, Filipinos have a record of supporting their leaders, whatever. I recall that the previous President was getting almost equally high approval ratings in 2016 as is the incumbent, at least just before the pandemic. I give him a bare passing grade on Covid only, but that will probably soon change to an F

Re: NCR llockdown
 

So todays declaration of new COVID-19 cases has doubled to just over 4000. I really don't care how the authorities try to justify this appalling news, the beginnings of an exponential increase is truly alarming.
Perhaps at last we are seeing some transparency which has taken five months in coming.
Take care one and all.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The labs here are obviously struggling to process results. Yesterday's figure maybe just because of some freed blockage and the numbers may fall back. somewhat. We will see. But it looks like 150,000 cases by the end of the month will be easily achieved, Deaths also seem to be rising gradually. Though the government can now point to a large number of recoveries following 28,000 being removed the other day due to changes in WHO recommendations. However, if you watch Chris Cuomo's show on CNN regularly you will hear a lot of concerns about the longer term effects of the virus on patients after their "recovery" from Covid.

The health service here is under great pressure and this WHO report shows how bad the Philippines situation is in comparison with other SE nations:

https://rappler.com/nation/philippin...asia-un-report

Although there are a lot of people here in their late 20s and 30s who have given up, or not even used their qualification in nursing due to the lack of jobs and the low salary.

While all this is going on we have this idea being floated:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...f-lopez/story/

Not as crazy as the motorcycle barrier, but definitely not the answer. Masks and shields on a Jeepney? Hot, visibility problem. Was thinking the shield can even trap virus laden air? Normally on a Jeep there is a good flow of air. Low ventilation indoor areas? Really? People shouldn't be made to congregate in them in the first place. Keep them mainly for use in hospitals dealing with virus infected patients. The President's spokesman also got in on the act, as he normally does, but later the idea of the economics qualified DTI Secretary to give people 100% protection was changed by the IATF from a requirement to a recommendation. I don't think we will hear much more about it.

But with the worsening situation we might see more ideas like it to give the public the impression they can control the outbreak until the we get the Chinese vaccine in December and have it given out by the military! A few days ago the Russians announced they would have a vaccine available well before the Chinese are promising...it could be good as they have probably been stealing from Western labs. I was waiting for the President here to announce he was also interested in getting their vaccine.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Interesting that the NHS highlight the positive benefits on prevention when in an airflow, even a mild breeze. So the ludicrous motor cycle shield may have a negative effect. Also jeepneys may also be a safer form of transport than cabs, Grab, PUV's and new air con jeepneys.

Too much political BS regarding early availability of vaccine. China for the Chinese, Russia for the Russians no need to go further. The political naivety is quite stunning. Or perhaps a better analogy is a headless chicken.

Enough from me this weekend time to consume a few San Mig's.
Keep safe one and all.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Both Russia and China sending early releases of a vaccine to the Philippines who will be giving it to the poor first, human trials anyone.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Think those countries struggling to contain the virus and whose governments are being seen by people to have mishandled things will be desperate to use the first vaccines they can get, regardless of their effectiveness and maybe even their safety. Will that include the Philippines?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Probably

Re: NCR llockdown
 

So nearly 5000 new CIVID cases today.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A few pointers on these. I did a hydraulic air flow analysis ( I know a sado with sod all else to do ) on the rider/pillion barrier using two standard industry tools, both showed that it would make it worse than with no barrier, mainly because there is less updraft from below the riders head ( mostly coming from the downward pointing thighs ) indicating that all the air from around the riders head ends up round the pillions head, still awaiting for the design of the married couple's bedroom barrier when they get home from riding the bike. WRT the jeepneys they are now regulated to the actual amount of passengers they are registered for which automatically cuts down the chance of catching the virus from another passenger by more that 50% without any plastic sheeting barriers.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Most likely - not. After the SONA the other day when the president claimed to be requesting preferential treatment to get a vaccine from China and then a few minutes later mentioning military action over the SCS

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"still awaiting for the design of the married couple's bedroom barrier when they get home from riding the bike"
That's made my evening LOL

Re: NCR llockdown
 

But I think he said the Philippines "cannot afford to go to war" over the SCS? The PH will remain a pussycat. Though it might get interesting if Trump tries something there to help his re-election. To look tougher on sovereignty the Sabah claim is being raised.
No doubt Xi will use the vaccine as leverage, especially if the outbreak here is still out of control later this year. Read that the PH is also in a WHO scheme called COVAX.
Early days, but looks useful.

https://mb.com.ph/2020/08/01/covax-c...accine-for-ph/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/02/...r-govt-adviser

To be fair many European countries have greatly unreported Covid deaths, especially the UK. The difference here is that the relatively low number of deaths is seen as one of the good points of the virus situation.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I think you will find that the criteria that the UK use for reporting deaths due to COVID-19 greatly overstates the true picture. I suggest you examine how Germany seems to be under reporting its deaths. There is in fact no true comparison between European countries.
The true picture here is impossible to fathom. I'm sure that the ABS-CBN quote greatly understates reality.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

For the UK I don't see much that would greatly overstate Covid related deaths. There is an issue about positive coronavirus tests being too far in the past, affecting about 10%. of deaths. Even some who later died after being hit by a vehicle may have been included! The government report on this hasn't come out yet. But then there must be cases where there is no prior positive Covid test result. For Germany questions have been asked about their low death rate but it seems from reading some discussions that their testing and demographics are mostly the cause, rather than data recording.

As you say, it's difficult to compare these stats across Europe...that's why it's better to look at excess deaths to get an idea of the probable extent of under reporting. That's what I was relying on when I said there was a lot of under reporting across Europe. I saw a report on excess deaths some months ago. Using excess deaths gives a better picture of the effect of the pandemic eg includes people dying at home but never tested, dying from other conditions as they didn't show up at hospital.

A fortnight ago The Economist published this very detailed analysis:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

Excess deaths have been used to look at 'flu seasons, so the methods are well practised. You will see Britain and Spain doing the worst, with the numbers large enough not to be able to be explained away by statistical differences. Even Germany almost doubles its deaths.

As the article says outside Europe and the Americas you can't do this analysis. So we just have to rely on what we see here with the poverty, standard of health care, poor recording etc to safely assume that Covid related deaths are well above official figures. Even if Dr Leachon is over-estimating by 50% , which I very much doubt, the real figure is double the official one.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The Economist article is the best on the subject that I have seen. Maybe in my dotage I should consider reopening my subscription.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

It's good but too much to read each week for me now. You could try CNNs Fareed Zakaria's Global Briefing? Good summaries of articles from The Economist and other publications sent free to your inbox about 3 times a week.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin,
Thanks I'll give it a try.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

So over the weekend nearly 10k extra cases. For the two days only 74 and 70 labs reported out of 94. On testing you can calculate that just under 30k tests were done in the 24 hr period July31/Aug 1, which is higher by 4k compared to July24/25 last weekend. And a lot more tests are being done than they were doing back in May and June. Good, they are finding the infections. Can't find any recent test positivity rate estimates to better see how they are doing. (Figures from recent DOH coronavirus case bulletins on Fb)

https://rappler.com/nation/after-fro...-august-4-2020

Following representations from frontliners Manila reverted to MECQ today for two weeks. Main measures: no public transport and 50% business maximum capacity. Although I thought that was the case under GCQ? Also some government services closing. Quarantine passes are mentioned, but no detail. I don't think two more weeks of MECQ will do much to get on top of the pandemic. We had many weeks of ECQ. Two months maybe would? Then destroy the economy and empty government coffers. Hopefully government minds will be concentrated in the next fortnight to improve in some areas, but I can't see any radical moves. But good that the medical workers got some benefits.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/02/...s-disinfectant

This was a few days ago. Previously I said that the President didn't deserve to be talked of alongside those leaders in the US and Brazil who are doing a poor job, even sometimes working against measures to fight the pandemic. He didn't recommend gasoline injections in these remarks so I think he can stay in the Championship and not be promoted to the Premier League. If you are kind it can even be seen as an attempt at a distraction...there's a lot of those around now.
But, this morning here's something that could change my view:

https://rappler.com/nation/piqued-du...on-against-him

At present there's only mild concern internationally about this country and coronavirus. That can soon change. Many countries are having a tough time but most leaders are not doing this sort of thing. Much more of it and the reputation of this country will plummet, affecting business and tourism. Except maybe Chinese.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Perhaps Rappler's days are numbered.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...134640402.html

A concise report from Aljazeera on Manila\s reversion to a stricter quarantine and how it got there. The station can be difficult to find in the long lists on cable TV here but is easy to view online. Its news website is an international version of Rappler. Luckily for the government they are carrying reports on countries in Asia guilty of much worse mishandling of the fight against the virus eg one on Iran covering up two thirds of its deaths. That was also reported by the BBC, but they are not reporting as regularly these days on the Philippines.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Covid deaths here showing an uptick lately. In the last week there were 176 official covid deaths announced. In the previous week 126. The total now is 2,059 and if the death rate for the last week is maintained until the end of this month that would mean an additional 700 or so. If deaths trend upwards reaching 3,000 or more at the end of the month is definitely possible.

But trying to put this in perspective the normal mortality rate here is only about 5 or 6 per 1,000. For the UK and USA it is around 8 or 9. Countries with the highest figures reach about 14.
So covid deaths don't yet look significant here compared with a normal total of over half a million per year. Or viewing covid deaths as one event they don't compare with typhoons. The worst lately,Yolanda, killed over 6,000 in 2016.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

That's all fine and dandy. Do you really believe that the daily declarations are accurate?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I think just about all the virus stats the DOH puts out are just a starting point to be either significantly added to or subtracted from. Deaths to be significantly added to. But in the absence of much critical investigation around in local popular media I think the public will mostly believe them. Even if it is 5,000 deaths officially at the end of August the government will probably say it's not so bad just look at the figures in other countries and that will still register with the public who do see reports from around the world on local TV.

Will they still be able to get away with that spin at the end of the year if the situation continues to get worse? Maybe, especially if SE Asian neighbours are also still in trouble. But it will be more difficult.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/08/04/...nal-says-group

Premier League!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Agreed, maybe he has the age issues as The Donald.

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One issue is that the most accurate tests require lab capacity. Let's say labs can process 10000 tests daily (that's probably being very overly generous) and you have about 80% testing negative. So that means you'd cap out at 2000 reported positives. It would flatline until you increased testing PROCESSING capacity.

In fact, you'll simply get many samples that will sit in a fridge somewhere awaiting processing. Maybe a better measure of the increase would be the ratio of positive to negative tests. Of course one is likely testing only the symptomatic and those that are targeted by contact tracing.

I just heard on the Beeb there is a rapid test kit for antigen that takes about 90 minutes and can be done in the field by non-professionals. It's got a fairly high accuracy. Hopefully they can get these distributed globally as that would provide a more tangible assessment of the actual numbers of infected. It would allow random population assessments.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53632043

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Watched an interview of his niece on CNN about the book she has written about her uncle. She said that what you see now is what he has always been. I think you can also say the same thing about the man here, allowing for the differences in scope and scale between his positions in Davao and now at Malacanag.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Listened to a discussion about re-opening schools in the US. Children are often going to be split up into groups. One school head explained that after re-opening at his school all kids in the group would need to undergo 14 days quarantine if any one kid tested positive. Maybe one day before a widespread vaccination programme can start a rapid test with a decent level of accuracy could be used at the start of each day on kept apart children. After a couple of hours they could revert to their groups with much more confidence than now.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Who cares about the US when here as I write there 6000 plus cases declared today. Too many theories and unqualified opinions, The only resolution is when a vaccine is universally available.
We all have to accept that for the moment that the lifestyle that we have been used to has gone for the foreseeable future. Just let the people who are qualifies take over!!!