Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...95670e9f79.jpg

"Remaining Seniors not categorized as indigent and as determined by the DSWD." This was the priority list for vaccination before the Sinovac issue. A new one being prepared. Maybe some Expat seniors are registered by the DSWD in some places but generally I suspect we're below the radar. Many won't bother. We won't as we live in a very low risk environment but if still in Paranaque I think we would have tried to get them if offered by the City. It will be interesting to look out for reports of wives of Expats being refused, as has been reported in relation to other benefits by some Expats.

A strong message from HRH. Especially as messages from her are rare. Here the King talks a lot and has difficult choices coming up next week on taking the first generally available Sinovac shots. In public or not? Not recommended by his FDA for Seniors, but they are the first arrivals here. Or wait for the Sinopharm, which his guards already had in secret. He has previously said Filipinos can't pick and choose.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The UK has 400+million doses on order of which we need something like 130 million, the remainder will be donated.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the highest total of new cases, 2,651, since Oct 17 (2,673) announced. Eight labs did not report. Included a nearly 600 results backlog. Positivity at the highest level since October at 7.2%. Tests in preparation at a higher 36.4k.
Deaths at 46 with 20 RDs.
Severe down 21, critical up 15 to 725 and 794 resp.
Case fatality back to 2.14%,

Some locational detail:

NCR 932, C Visayas 500, Calabarzon 185, C Luzon 154, Davao 133, W Visayas 110

Within the NCR Pasay led at 194 cases, QC 174, Manila 118
So NCR had 35.2% and 4A 7% of national cases. Total 42.2%.
Pasay with 43 more cases than yesterday at 194.

Again Cebu province had nearly all the regional cases and of those Cebu City had 52%.

The latest DOH graphics:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1323402e26.jpg
National

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7f1774e1ad.jpg
NCR

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0d8cee361c.jpg
Cebu province

Some improvement in Cebu, whether enough to save it from more restrictions imposed by Manila, we shall see.
Otherwise a deteriorating picture all round. But there were signs a month ago of a gradual increase and cases are now rising at a faster rate, with a few new hotspots emerging. Davao and maybe Cebu are improving but the Philippines is bucking the current international trend of falling cases, with the first bulk vaccine deliveries weeks away. We've yet to hear definitively about the variants.

But for us British Expats UK data still shows much higher levels of the virus there now. You can monitor the situation in the UK on the BBC site, link below.

My home town is currently showing an attack rate of 107 per 100k population. Not good but the worst area in the region is at 202. Most areas in my region near London are under 100. Some London Boroughs are over 100. Some in the West Country under 10. The latest attack rate for MM as a whole is also under 10, although Pasay now is 20-30 per 100k. All the UK numbers should fall soon due to the vaccination roll out.

Still, allowing for more under reporting and delayed statistics it's not too bad here.... for now,. More people and density greater but people are masked and shielded more than in the UK. But can the government control the rises over the next few weeks with just a few strict lockdowns and no early vaccines? Keeping some areas under GCQ may not be enough.

The main concern is that the medical facilities here cannot cope with the smaller proportion of serious covid cases this country has now at the present low levels of infection.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I am not at all surprised by this upward trend. Yesterday I went through Marikina market, the first time for nearly a year (technically I am not allowed). What I observed was a general lackadaisical attitude towards the laid down precautions. Rather than the clamouring for less restrictive quarantine measures I foresee a tightening of restrictions, just as we have seen in the UK. The vaccination programme cannot come soon enough.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

For me enclosed and partially enclosed markets are best to avoid, especially at certain times. They can monitor the vendors but what about all those people from far away places coming in and delivering produce? Even in our breezy area of upper Cavite I didn't feel comfortable one Sunday in a crowded covered but open to the sides market.
In Paranaque they operated earlier last year daily entry based on the last digit of your Q pass. Better, if possible, to use smaller street side markets.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday nearly 3k national cases announced. The 2,921 positives were the highest since Oct 16. Six labs did not report. Over 1,100 of the positives were delayed results.
Positivity up again to 7.8%. Tests coming are 36.4k.

Deaths at 42 with 9 of them RDs.
Severe up 17, critical down 15. Only the minority who are ill with covid are in hospital.

Locational data for yesterday difficult to get and is limited to:

Regional: NCR 1,019, Central Visayas 681, Calabarzon 256, Cagayan Valley 194, Central Luzon 138, Davao 114, CAR 107, W Visayas 92, E Visayas 70, Other Mindanao 145

In the NCR: Pasay 170,Malabon 150,Manila 120, QC 119, Navotas 85, Makati 59,, Caloocan 47, Pasig 44,, Paranaque 38, Mandaluyong 29, Taguig 24, Marikina 20,
Las Pinas 19,Muntinlupa 16, San Juan 14.

For Cebu: Cebu City 239, LapuLapu City 152, Manadaue City 106

So NCR 34.9%, 4A 8.8% of national cases. Making 43.7% together of national cases.
Central Visayas with 23.3%.Cag V 6.6%, Cen Luzon 4.7%, Davao 3.9%. and CAR 3.7%. So just over 85% from those 7 regions.

Pasay City continues to surge with about 20 less cases than the day before. Paranaque has restricted movement between a small number of Pasay and Paranaque Brgys. Will this become a common measure in the NCR if things get worse?
Malabon with a large count of 150.....its last entry I reported was 58 on Feb 25. Only 11 cases the day before that.
Navotas with 85 also showing a sharp increase over recent days. One of the smaller cities in the NCR.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e6320bbb52.jpg
National

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6262c141cf.jpg
NCR

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b2140267e1.jpg
Cebu City

The recent increase in the NCR has prompted speculation amongst the experts that a variant is at least partly to blame there. Cebu has also been the subject of the same speculation for weeks now. But without any proof from testing that is all it is...speculation. In the case of the NCR there has been a gradual rise over the last month and a sharper increase just recently. the sharp increase the hallmark of the UK variant. But that could equally have been been caused by more economic activity and a relaxation of social distancing by the public.

Cebu awaits stricter measures as no improvement.

Vaccine news:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/27/...xpress-concern

It may not be very effective, but the Brazilian trial may have been a tough one for it, given the low standards in hospitals there. The numbers might be higher in future trials. Can they count on the government to offer them a better one?

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...O?ocid=BingHPC

Hopefully some movement coming on opening schools.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The much publicised Sinovac convoy whizzed past my residence 30 minutes ago. The storage facility is a brisk 15 minutes walk away. I might meander down there in the morning and see if they will give a 50% efficacy jab.
Such a shame that the Head of State is too old to qualify for Sinovav.
Nevermind Oxford Astra Zeneca will be here soon. I just hope that the powers that be do not make the same errors that France and Germany have made.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The AZ vaccine could have been a No No here if a link to aborted fetal cells, still up in a Rappler item by a visiting Reverend Biology Professor at UST, had not been debunked

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...-controversial

Was male not female aborted fetal cells and came from a Fb video:

https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...ontain-aborte/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The case total down yesterday to 2,113 but that was from only 21.3k tests. Backlog included was 700. Positivity down to 6.6%. Tests in progress only 26k.
Low testing after Xmas probably allowed the gradual increase of cases, which has now quickened. Testing and tracing needs to be increased now with the rise in cases.

This was the plan before Xmas. We're now at just over 8m individuals, averaging 31.5k a day recently. One month to go and 2m to the end of Q1 so we would need to up the daily average to over 60k people a day!:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ainable/story/

Limited locational detail available again:

NCR 901, 4A 235, Central Visayas 200, Central Luzon 148, CAR 142

NCR dominated at 42.6% and 4A 11.1% of national cases. Total over half at 53.7%. Pasay City at 82, much down on previous days.
Central Visayas 9.5% with Cebu City 82. Greatly down on previous days.
CAR at 6.7%.

Deaths at 29 with 10 RDs.
Mass recovery stats day....9.4k of them.
Active cases up at 29,763 on last Sunday by over 3.5k or 13%.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Just some update on yesterday's cases now as data late coming in:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...776b479707.jpg
Twelve out of the 17 NCR cities in the top 20
Note; Pasay City was 180 not 82 as I said this morning! So not down.
NCR Reproductive number now estimated by the OCTA group to be at 1.51. For comparison national R now at 1.22.
What does that 1,51 R mean? If maintained the number of new cases in the NCR daily would be around 1,500 by the end of March. If NCR R rises to 1.5 in the next week and that is maintained we would be seeing more than 2,000 daily cases by the end of the month ie as many as we are now seeing for the whole country.

Other areas will add to that greatly if they continue to show rising cases:
The OCTA group look at attack rate, positivity and hospital bed occupancy. I have tried and failed to reconcile the case numbers with the DOH's as they differ, For the attack calculation maybe they also use their own population estimates rather than the 2015 census, which the DOH erroneously uses.

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ee5b1b264a.jpg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...814868dee7.jpg

For some reason attack rates over 7.0 are of most concern. Included are a number of NCR cities, notably Pasay and Navotas. but also Makati and Malabon. Although Makati has bed occupancy at 84% you would think it could use hospitals in nearby cities. Valenzuala, Paranaque and Marikina with high positivity.
In Cebu, Cebu , Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities all with rising cases, high attack rates and positivity. LapuLapu also with high bed occupancy. Only good news is that Cebu City's upward trend is now less steep. Cebu's Reproductive number high at 1.38.
In the CAR both Tabuk in Kalinga and Baguio City with rising cases and high positivity.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A simple way of looking at the R number is that for an R of 1.5 if 10 people are infected they would infect another 15 people.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, thanks Gazza. What I wrote last night should have been:

"NCR R at 1.5 maintained through March would lead to over 2,000 NCR cases a day at the end of the month. Reducing R to 1.2 soon can reduce this substantially to around 1,500"

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...16c5a89ffe.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday again over 2k cases at 2,037. That included a backlog of about 1k results. Positivity was again high at 7.5%. and was from only 14k tests. Only 17k tests in preparation.
Four deaths. Weekend reporting often delayed.
Those in a severe condition 729, critical 793..almost unchanged recently.

Location detail March 1:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bb68c07781.jpg
Other Mindanao 21

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e7113d7836.jpg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...77b6510832.jpg

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...414f463c87.jpg

NCR giving 42.5% of national cases. The adjacent Region 4A 9.9%. The two combined 51.4%. NCR with 14 out of its 17 cities in the top 20.
Manila with a very high number. Pasay down from its recent high numbers. The top 4 cities also included QC and Makati and they made up 54.5% of NCR cases.
Central Visayas at 15.5% of national cases, with nearly all again from Cebu province. Cebu City with 48% of them.

Cases and deaths for the last week of Feb:

Average cases per day 2,138 (week before 1,715, so an increase of nearly 25%).
Average daily deaths 32 (down from 80).

Internationally:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c628542b6e.jpg

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b7896df596.jpg
The Philippines will soon catch up Pakistan.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Another report of over 2k cases yesterday, 2,067, and a number likely to have been reduced by 8 labs not reporting. Positives at 6.9% from a lowish 20.5k tests. A baclog of about 600 results included. Tests on individuals coming along 23.2k. The testing numbers lately are low for a time of increased cases and positivity:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2666780d7a.jpg
Deaths back higher at 42 and 30 of those were RDs.
Case fatality down at 2.13% .....due to the recent case rise.
Severe unchanged, critical down just 2 at 729 and 773 resp..

March 1 locations:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...74e65c23b6.jpg
Plus Bicol 10, E Visayas 8

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d7c548d150.jpg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f68d9342f9.jpg

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...86cd69f6fb.jpg


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...4cbb405458.jpg

NCR alone had 40.1% and 4A 11.2% of national cases. So the two together making up over half national cases. The NCR had 12 of its cities in the top 20.
QC and Pasay Cities dominated the NCR numbers with 182 and 169 cases. Then Manila, Makati and Paranaque. Added together these 5 cities made up just over two thirds of the NCR total. Paranaque maintains its increased numbers recently with 57 cases. Pasay numbers were up greatly on the day before. Presumably some mass testing going on there.
Cebu City with nearly 58% of the island's cases, which had nearly 91% of the C Visayas region's cases. Mandaue and LapuLapu Cities added another 16.5% of Cebu cases so a quarter of Cebu island;s cases were from elsewhere.

News on the SA variant here:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...variant/story/

Dr John gives a favourable verdict on Sinovac's Coronavac vaccine, Telling as he is always stressing the need for evidence and with Coronavac there is presently a lack of published evidence:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...34b5ecce0c.jpg

The one dose Janssen vaccine getting a two dose trial here. Though one dose here would be good for this vaccine and others as the country so late with vaccines and cases are increasing:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/02/...m-efficacy-doh

The President setting a good example on vaccination:

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/140194...-to-secure-eua

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 1,783 new cases from 27.3k tests with a higher 7.9% positivity. Nearly 400 results were not announced and held over. Also 7 labs did not report. Tests coming along lower at 23k.
Deaths at 20 with 14 RDs.
Severe and Critical reported both at 771, so Severe up 40.

Location details difficult to get, but here are some:

NCR 737, 4A 159, Central Visayas 357, CAR 106, Central Luzon 104.
So NCR at 41.3%, 4A 21.6%. So nearly 63% for the two together.
With Central Visayas just over 70% of national cases.
In the NCR QC was 140, Pasay 88, Manila 87, Makati 74, Paranaque 57.
Cebu City 166, LapuLapu 65, Mandaue 56 made up over 80% of the region's cases.
Good news: Davao City only 24.

Vaccine news:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/elder...-priority-list

It tells you something that senior prisoners were initially left out.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/03/...nt-expert-says

The "expert" quoted here is the same one who pushed the anti-vax fake news about AZ's covid vaccine, which I gave a link to here on March 1.
He's a part time molecular biologist as he's also a Reverend. He is doing some research on vaccines but that doesn't make him an expert. The problem is that the media here is too quick to describe people as experts. Partly because they get so little information from the official experts.

...and because those people are often misleading....like here..

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

What we have in Manila is not a "spike". It's the beginning of a new surge or wave.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I thought they brought in a law in the Philippines about peddling fake news. There are concerns about the efficacy of the vaccines against the South African variant, that's all the vaccines but they do still prevent hospitalization and death.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

At last! The DOH took until midday to give the locational detail for yesterday. Maybe not surprising, given the alarming numbers.

Yesterday 2,452 cases, all recent and more than 60 positives were held over. Positivity from 25.7k individuals at a higher 9.8%. Tests coming along at 32k.
Deaths at 15, 5 of them RDs.
Active cases the highest for 3 months at over 37k.
Severe and Critical in hospital both up 11 at 782.

Locations for yesterday:


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9acb0776c3.jpg

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0c7b880eed.jpg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...586eb14f8e.jpg

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...57bfdffc26.jpg

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a170edaee5.jpg

NCR with 42.3% of cases, 4A with 11.1%. So the two together made up over half the national cases.
Central Visayas at 16.5% and Western Visayas at 6.1%.
So the top 4 regions contributed over three quarters of national cases.

In the NCR Pasay City led with more cases than QC, despite the large disparity in their population size.
It may be relevant that 3 out of the 6 SA variant cases came from Pasay City.
But over 1k daily cases in the NCR has not been seen for many months.
Thirteen out of the 17 NCR cities in the top 20.
The top 4 cities in the NCR also included Manila and Malabon and alone gave 53% of NCR cases.

Cebu made up over 93% of Central Visayas cases. Cebu City 44% of them, Together with Mandaue and LapuLapu the 3 cities contributed over 82% of the island's cases.

Vaccine news:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/04/...till-effective

The negative stuff from the OCTA expert about AZ and the SA variant knocked on the head by the WHO.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/03...bank-economist

Necessary to say that obvious thing as the President is looking at opening up, even as a new wave is starting.

Lastly a long article from Rappler on the murky business going on with the President's favourite vaccine, the one given illegally to his guards and others late last year:

https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in...odrigo-duterte

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I wish someone at abs-cbn could be slapped up the side of the head every time they incorrectly use he word inoculation when they are talking about vaccination. It makes them sound like they don't know what they are talking about.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

NCR cases continue to rise and so we have the highest announcement this year, 3,045 new cases. Five labs did not report. All recent tests numbering 32k at 9.2% positivity.
Coming along 33.5k test results.

Deaths at 19, 3 of them RDs.
Severe 761 and Critical 802, down 21 and up 20. For the minority in a hospital!
Active cases now over 40k.

Location data again difficult to get:

NCR 1,279, Central Visayas 441, Region 4A 335, Central Luzon 251, CAR 149
These 4 regions made up 80% of the cases. NCR dominated at 42%.
The majority, 53%, came from the NCR plus region 4A.

In the NCR the cities were:

QC 233, Pasay 180, Manila 147, Makati 135, Caloocan 98, Pasig 74, Taguig 72, Navotas 67, Paranaque 64, Marikina 39, Valenzuala 37, Malabon 23

Pasay continues to surge. QC returning to lead the table. Malabon with a low total yesterday but its numbers lately have been very variable day to day.

Cebu City down somewhat at 139.
Davao City improving more with only 34 cases.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e2e42ba485.jpg
NCR surge

The OCTA group have just updated their report:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8cc5cd08c0.jpg
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...898f786fad.jpg

Pasay City with an average of 150 per day over the past week. Curiously low positivity though..
Paranaque, Valenzuala and Marikina showing high positivity as are the cities on Cebu and Baguio.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d0364546e5.jpg

At the Barangay level in the NCR one of them in Pasay adding alone 128 cases a week. In fact 5 Pasay Brgys are in the top 20 and together they contributed just over 30% of Pasay's average daily cases over the last week. Two Paranaque Brgys are also in the top 20 and I know they are adjacent to some of the Pasay Brgys in the top 20 table.
Unsurprisingly OCTA calculate the R value for Pasay at a high 1.83 (national now at 1.47, NCR was at 1.51).
Whether their estimate takes into account the presence of more contagious variants, as suspected by some experts, we don't know.

Understandably a lot of excitement here lately about the arrival of the first vaccines, but here's an analysis from an economist pouring some cold water on that:

https://www.rappler.com/voices/thoug...eds-injections

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Raffin,
Again thank you for your regular and informative updates.
Well the current upward trend in new SARS2 cases reinforces The Presidents decision not to relax quarantine measures. In fact I predict a more harsh regime is just around the corner.
So far as vaccinations are concerned the majority of health workers here in Marikina have rejected the Sinovax as there are no meaningful statistics on its efficacy. I think the supplies of the Sinovax have all been distributed as there was only one noisy convoy leaving the central storage facility just down the road from where I reside. Roll on OAZ vaccine, by far the cheapest!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Thanks B.
I'm not sure they can do much more. Yes, clamp down on the Brgy 76s in the NCR and up the testing. But realistically they can't stop movement between NCR cities and recently most restrictions on regional movement have been lifted. Only the mayor of Navotas has complained about that so far, but maybe if more NCR Mayors also object soon there may be some reversal there. There's a Bayanihan 3 Bill ongoing through Congress but its provisions are based on the case situation late last year. It includes a wage subsidy but if things go to business closures from less capacity it will be much less help. And according to the President's spokesman 25% of Bayanihan 2's help has not been distributed.

As the rapid increases in cases continue the possibility of variants being a main cause increases. The summer domestic tourism season is near and tourist areas desperate for business are encouraging travel. Vaccines won't do anything much to stop spread for many months.

The price being paid here for low testing when the curve plateaued late last year. I don't think the DOH and other medical experts here look enough at the international picture. Countries which had some weeks of a flat curve tended later to go up again rather than down.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

NCR cases yesterday at nearly 1,500 and 3,439 new cases announced nationally. Highest since October 12 last year. Also a high 9 labs did not report However, there was a backlog of nearly 1,200 included. Positivity from 26.4k tests was 8.6%. A higher 33.5k tests on the way. Ideally thousands of extra tests are needed daily with positivity nearing 10% nationally.

Deaths at 42 with 15 RDs.
Case fatality down to 2.11 due to the increase in cases, but the price for that in terms of deaths will be paid in a few weeks time.
Severe and Critical numbers basically unchanged at 780.

Locations for March 6:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d63df2baf2.jpg
MIM 18, other Mindanao 36

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3f571508ea.jpg
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a7fd1bdb61.jpg

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...28f766a489.jpg

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6f125cc6e3.jpg
NCR at 42.6% and nearby 4A at a higher 13.1. The two regions together making up over 55% of the day's cases. NCR had 13 of its 17 cities in the top 20 urban areas.
Pasay with another high number and Malabon resumes high numbers after a low count the day before.
CAR with 10.6%. Baguio City with 107 cases, nearly 30% of the region's.
Central Luzon with 7.4%. and a much higher number of cases than of late. Bulacan fourth highest province. Adjacent to Manila As with Cavite (see below) many commute from there to Manila daily.
Central Visayas with 12% of the nation's cases. Cebu again dominating the region's cases and Cebu City with 38% of the island's cases. Together with Mandaue and LapuLapu these cities contributed nearly 70% of Cebu cases.

Calabarzon with a doubling of cases and 42% of them from Cavite.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b2ba3e30c0.jpg
Cavite cases.

The part of Cavite bordering MM is home to many commuters travelling daily into Manila to work. Many of them will travel to or through areas like Pasay, where cases have been surging recently. Similarly for Laguna and Rizal.

Still not coming out with any clear statement on the role of variants in the NCR and other areas the DOH looking to blame people for not following protocols to account for the recent large rises in many cities of the NCR. Certainly if the variants are really spreading among communities rather than just locally then minor protocol lapses would be caught by a much more contagious virus on the loose. But if variants are only locally spreading then the public must be doing much more than that in terms of relaxing their behaviour. Late last year in Paranaque I observed good compliance in general, but it may have slipped back since then. Of course the DOH also has a role in making sure testing is adequate, but they became complacent about it when cases were levelling late last year.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/06/...-just-a-factor

I would much rather rely on what is reported by individual hospitals than judge the picture from the DOH statistics, which nearly always show no problems:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...9-cases/story/

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...21ece2b84c.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

History repeating itself methinks. One year into quarantine restrictions with all that entails people are getting relaxed and fed up. The hype that accompanied the arrival of Sinovax and now OAZ vaccines seems to be giving false hope that it is all over bar the shouting. It is far from over, as an example the order made by Marikina for OAZ vaccines will not be delivered until the 3rd quarter of this year.
With a young population which we know do not always show SARS2 symptoms and as a result become the source of multiple infections is a worry. Personally I believe that the daily rate of infections is greater than 50,000.
Looking at the accomplished tests per person we see the following, UK 1.38, USA 1.11, France 0.83, Germany 0.53, Philippines 0.081.
Be careful one and all.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

But the Philippines testing is double that of Indonesia's and Pakistan's, both around 0.04 per person. And we've just overtaken Pakistan in the cases world table:
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...acd69dca38.jpg
Some less developed countries have tested a lot more per head, India at 0.16, though they have a lot more cases per head. But there's many who have done less. I think testing and the tracing to go with it is difficult for these countries. Certainly variant testing is likely to be much poorer than many Western countries.

I think the recent increases are too rapid to be caused by deteriorating behaviour, which is likely to change gradually. But yes, away from the well monitored areas people may be letting their guard down, There are still curfews in place but what about mixing of households? The Philippines did not copy other countries like the UK to restrict that. The house we overlook in our corner of Cavite held a debut party a few weeks ago with about 50 guests. They also still have regular drinking sessions with 10 - 20 attending. A lot less than in 2019/early 2020 but still enough to potentially spread virus in a small area. While in the West young people are out drinking and at the beach etc here the young are likely to be mixing in other households. Yes, they seem to be more likely asymptomatic.

Yes, the true number here with covid is almost certainly at least 3 or 4 times the official number due to the low average age and therefore higher asymptomatic percentage, poor testing/tracing and data collection/reporting. I wouldn't go as far as 16 times daily on present data as that would now mean an extra 1.5m a month with most of these in urban areas. With such large numbers carrying the virus most people in those cities will catch it after a few months. But this large under-reporting would also have been going on for a long time in 2020 so there would already have been a huge and obvious amount of illness to be seen

With a late and probably poorly carried out vaccination program, the likely effect of variants plus the under reported infections I expect the outbreak here to be chronic and the President's promise of back to complete normality in 2023 to be seen as over optimistic. Semi normality in 2022, yes.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Curfew? What curfew! At 2am this morning lots of cars and motorcycles almost like a normal Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Across the road from my Condo complex there is an INC place of worship. Hoards were observed leaving their usual Saturday evening rituals. Social distancing??????
Of course we all know that said organisation has may powerful friends.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I think the people in Pasay getting infected at the rate of well over 100 a day lately are mostly not the type who go around town at night in vehicles. They're catching the virus through everyday contact at work or locally. The Barangay night time curfews on the young which we saw in Paranaque cut crime etc but unfortunately push them to congregate indoors. No school attendance so they probably also hang around in the day together with friends as many are not supervised doing those printed modules.
Yes, churches allowed only up to 30% of seating capacity under GCQ. Difficult to monitor, unlike small restos etc.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Correction: last month GCQ church maximum capacity raised to 50% :

https://mb.com.ph/2021/02/12/iatf-al...o-50-capacity/

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday another total over 3k and some more from the NCR, Seven labs not reporting. Positivity from 30k tests was at 9.2%. The backlog of positives over 400. Tests coming along at 35k.
Deaths at 51 with 13 RDs.

Mass Sunday recoveries at 10.5k
Active cases are at 36,043 , up over 6k or 21% on last Sunday.
Severe cases in hospital down 23, Critical up 13 at 757/793.

Just the main locational detail available:

By region: NCR 1540, C Visayas 495, Calabarzon 347, C Luzon 219, Davao R 116, CAR 113
In the NCR: QC 261, Pasay 220, Manila 216, Makati 124,, Paranaque 109. Then 8 more cities with 50-100 cases.
Other cities: Baguio 45, Cebu City 205, Mandaue 37, LapuLapu 57, Davao City 52
Provinces: Cavite 142, Bulacan 150

NCR at 47% of national total, 4A at 10.6%. So the two together made up nearly 58% of the national number.
Pasay continues its large and significant figures. Paranaque has about doubled its recent figures. It borders Pasay in many places.
Malabon reported a low figure at 22.
Central Visayas at 15%. with Cebu City back to over 200 after some reductions recently.

Not much good news recently from the NCR.
According to the OCTA research group only Valenzuala is showing a downward trend.
Otherwise upward case trends in the rest of the cities....especially in QC, Makati, Taguig, Paranaque, Caloocan and Mandaluyong.
Pasay, Makati, Malabon and Navotas have the daily average highest virus per head...in Pasay's case at 30 per 100,00. But still, many areas in the UK exceed that even now with its falling cases. Hospitals are nearing capacity in Makati and several other cities have bed and ICU occupancy at high levels.
The R number is at 1.66 (national 1,47) and average positivity recently has been 8% so no improvement to be expected soon.

The provinces of Cavite and Bulacan, both bordering MM, down somewhat on yesterday's figures.

OCTA also say the Cebu Cities and Davao areon a downward trend, but Baguio City is on an upward trend.

The past week vs the week before:

Average daily cases 2414 (2138) Up 276 or by 13%
Average daily deaths 25 (80)

Last bit of cheery news:

The DOH now reports 118 confirmed cases of the more contagious UK variant and 52 more cases of SA variant which is also thought to reduce vaccine effectiveness. Oft those 52 cases 41 are with addresses in the NCR and the locations of 11 are presently unverified. Six other SA cases were found a week ago. making the total 58.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The second highest new case total yesterday for this year so far at 3,356. Six labs did not report. Nearly 1,600 results were from a backlog indicating testing is struggling to keep up with demand. Tests in preparation at 36k. Positivity at 8.8%.
Five deaths reported.
Severe up 30, critical up 6 both reported at 787.

Locational detail for March 7 cases:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...aa9c6c4433.jpg
Plus MIM 14, other Mindanao 19


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5afe30963b.jpg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...83a7d77a3d.jpg


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f99bd15c07.jpg

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1e19d0003d.jpg

NCR dominating more with nearly half of national cases. QC leading with nearly300 cases, Manila with over 200 and Pasay maintaining high numbers for its population. Paranaque with over 100 cases, something only seen there mid 2020. Fourteen NCR cities in the top 20 and even small Pateros reporting a jump in cases. It's a large strongly connected area and those connections include the surrounding provinces of Calabarzon and Bulacan. So region 4A had 13.5% of national cases and therefore the greater area of NCR plus 4A had just over three quarters of them. Within region 4A Cavite and Rizal provinces, both with large areas having close links with the NCR , are showing the most concerning case growth:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...09d862497f.jpg
Cavite

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...444c308d18.jpg
Rizal

Cebu continues with high case numbers at 12% of national figures and its 3 main cities contributed nearly 70% of those. But their case numbers have fallen somewhat recently.
Central Luzon with 6.6% and CAR with 3.1% mean that the top 5 regions are together adding nearly 85% of national cases.
The province of Bulacan, again with close links to Manila, is giving over half of Central Luzon's cases:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e42deebbf0.jpg
Bulacan

Baguio City with 44 cases, too low to get into the top 20 table yesterday, but still of concern:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1d3bfae1e8.jpg
Baguio City

Good news to end on In with Davao City showing a steeply falling recent trend. Only 10 cases yesterday:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0f53c50565.jpg

.....and nearby Davao del Sur province reported no cases yesterday, It has also seen a good downward trend up to just recently when cases rose a little.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ses-doh/story/

Read the Health Under Secretary's comments and see she gives no evidence, even single instances, to support her contention that there has been a fall lately in public compliance with health protocols.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Well I for one have seen many, many instances of non compliance of basic protocols. Face mask wearing, children out and about. I wonder what proportion of the population correctly was their hands for the minimum of 20 seconds each time they return to their place of abode?
There is no doubt that after 12 months of restrictions people are getting restless and hungry.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Some support here. Yes, I think people will naturally get tired of masks and shields as time goes on. Malls will be ok but in crowded markets and streets with it getting warmer too. I think they never did do the hand washing. There's unavoidable and avoidable social distancing. Maybe people are getting laxer on the latter. Looks like you should dig out your Q pass for shopping in markets and supermarkets again. Though I thought they were pointless in the more spacious groceries and Malls, and especially the 1 person rule.
If people's behaviour changes gradually why the steep recent NCR increase? Think variants playing a bigger role .than the DOH are prepared to admit to.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

What is a Q pass?
Incidentally I have just had an altercation with an arrogant American in the local Robinson's supermarket. I challenged him for not covering his nostrils with his facemark and not wearing a face shield. The conversation ended with me saying that it is no surprise that there have been more Americans dead due to COVID that the combined deaths in WW1&2, Korea and Vietnam.
Don't know why the managers didn't challenge him. He was 6'4" and stocky so I suppose they were intimidated by his size.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Quarantine Pass. Didn't you get one in Marikina?
I would caution you about stocky Americans in supermarkets. One came close to hitting me over a misunderstanding at a Senior checkout. He was obviously ex military and the worse for it. Met a few over the years.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

No never had to use it. I am a quarantine abiding old gentleman whose only outing are to one of two supermarkets both within 5 minutes walk and small Blue Wave mall across the road. I am usually in the gym within the confines of the condo complex most morning at 6am for an hours workout. All beer and wines purchased online as is good quality English tea! I get my Vitamin D dose when on the terrace for an hour a day.
As my wife is a midwife it seems that she will receive her OAZ vaccinations in the very near future.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The latest DOH announcement is another 2,668 cases, with again well over 1k from the NCR. Only 1,594 tests counted out of 20k, giving a positivity of 8.1% and therefore over 1k positives will be added tomorrow or soon after. Why the DOH cannot include them they don't say. Tests on the way only at 26k.

Deaths 7, 2 of them RDs.

Severe cases down 4 and critical up 2. At 753 and 795.

Just the leading data for yesterday:

Regions: NCR 1,244, 4A 434, Central Visayas 423, Central Luzon 188,....... a long way behind was Cagayan Valley 73
So NCR at 46.6% and 4A at 16.3%.... the two original epicenters making nearly 63% of the national total.

In the NCR: QC 256, Pasay 224, Manila 170, Makati 91, Paranaque 69, Pasig 49, Las Pinas 43, Navotas 40
R in the NCR now estimated to be higher at 1.8.
Pasay continues with high numbers,
Only Pateros in single figures. The usually high number cities get higher and a number of cities that used to report single or very low two digit numbers are now consistently with higher two digit reports.
Malabon with only 28 continues its improvement.

In Calabarzon the focus is on Cavite with 158 or 36% of the region's cases. Rizal was with 132 and Laguna 88.
For Central Luzon more than half of its cases were in Bulacan province.

Central Visayas with 16% of the national cases, Cebu City with 166, added to Mandaue and LapLapu cities the total comes to 296, that is 70% of the region's cases. The majority of the rest were from other Cebu locations.

Low figures from Baguio and Davao cities, 5 and 7 resp.

Vaccines:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/duter...ccine-purchase

The President and his spokesman undermining the HTAC and putting the Health Secretary in a difficult position.

Reliability of data:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ta-data/story/

A big disparity there for the numbers of two barangays in the news lately in Pasay City between what local officials say and what the DOH say. OCTA get their figures from the DOH, Maybe they should first check locally? This sort of thing is not new. Twenty thousand or so supposed QC cases were under dispute last year with the DOH. No later information as to how that was settled.

Last a recent news item which didn't get much publicity

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...fectant/story/

Trump did not repeat his similar claim!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday the cumulative total breached 600k with 2,886 cases announced, 5 labs did not report in time. Over 200 of the cases were from a backlog. The positive cases cases were 10.3% of those individuals tested, a high since Sep 9 when it was 11%. Tests coming along at 35.7k.

Deaths 17 with 4 of them RDs
Active cases have now breached.44k, Severe cases up 3 to 756, Critical cases down 39. For the minority in hospital!

Leading locations:

Regions: NCR 1,546 4A 352 , Central Visayas 334, Central Luzon 163, CAR 141, Cagayan Valley 76, W Visayas 71
NCR cities: QC 308, Manila 247, Pasay 215, Makati 142, Caloocan 117, Paranaque 95, Taguig 77, Valenzuala 71, Marikina 61, Pasig 59
Provinces: Cavite 103, Rizal 124, Laguna 68, Bulacan 100
Other Cities: Baguio 59, Cebu 138, Davao 22

NCR with 53.6% of national cases , Region 4A with 12.2%....so together contributing nearly two thirds of the country's cases. Cases up in the leading cities. Pasay continues to report high numbers for its much smaller population than in the other leading cities for cases..

Cases in Calabarzon down on the previous day.

In the Central Visayas the three leading cities of Cebu gave 58% of total regional cases, showing that more cases there have spread to its smaller towns..

Latest DOH NCR chart:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1638c68627.jpg
Trend increase as steep as it was back in early July.
To be kind to the government here the WHO are calling it a "spike", not a wave, because cases before Xmas did not fall far enough.
You can also see that the so-called "plateauing" before Xmas was actually a gentle increase.

Comparison with Indonesia:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0d290789de.jpg

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0c68d68585.jpg
Indonesia now on a well established downward trend, whereas the Philippines is starting an upward one.
Noticeable that while Indonesia has had a bad outbreak its case trend has been much smoother than that of the Philippine's. Probably reflecting the way testing and control measures here have been implemented here.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Highest daily total since Sep 19 announced yesterday at 3.749. Higher than the 3,439 for March 4. Four labs not reporting in time. Only 130 plus results were backlog and the positivity from 32.9k tests was at an increased 11.0%. Tests coming along at 37.4k. The last time positivity was this high was back in late August. It peaked at 14.4% at the end of July. Testing volume needs to increase somewhat in the light of the increasing positivity.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fdc42706ca.jpg
Active cases up to 47,769 nationally with 21,268 or 44.5% of them in the NCR.
Severe up 8 and Critical down 39 to 764 and 717.

Fuller locational detail is available:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...71267da21e.jpg
Plus MIM 14, other Mindanao 31

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...95021cfe69.jpg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a6908d8c82.jpg

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e6aad0dbdb.jpg

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d1bc9007e4.jpg
Becoming a repeat of the NCR table. Needs to be expanded.

Regionally NCR at 52.7% and 4A at 11.8%, making their total contribution 64.5% of national cases.
Adding Central Visayas and Central Luzon brings the top 4 regions to 82.6% of national cases.

Close to 2k cases for the NCR!
City of Manila leading QC even with its much smaller population. The two biggest cities in NCR population accounted for 30% of cases.
Pasay and Malabon continue high numbers for their smaller than average populations.

For provinces Cebu up on the previous day. So is Cavite and Bulacan. Rizal down a little.

Cebu City giving 56% of Cebu cases, Up 74 on the day before.
Both Baguio and Davao Cities again have low numbers. Two and 16 only.

Control measures and monitoring:

For MM a 10pm to 5am curfew from March 15 to the end of the month.
More efforts to maintain public social distancing by police.
Exhortations not to mix households.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...f-entry/story/

The IATF seeing resistance to its relaxation of domestic travel covid control measures.

Variants:

Still no admittance of community transmission by the DOH.
So far logged 118 UK , 58 SA variant cases in total.
QC alone recently reported 13 UK and 4 SA variants.

The President in a quandry!:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ossible/story/

One advantage of Populist politicians is that they will more often tell you what they are thinking. People are gong hungry and this is as the government is holding back on more aid, pleading lack of funds. A third Bayanihan bill is still waiting to go through Congress. But plenty of money can be found for the military and intelligence funding. The President himself controls a very large intelligence fund.

It seems incredible that he is saying this as cases have started to increase again. Opening up would be risky even if they weren't! Is he believing those that tell him this is a short lived "spike" and not really a wave?

Interesting too that he mentions population. The Philippines has had one of the highest population growth rates in Asia for some time and it is an obvious issue and one which has no doubt exacerbated the pandemic here. Back in 2016 it was growing at 1.7% pa but it has been estimated to now be growing less fast at 1.3%. The effect of the 2020 lockdown did show up in some increased births but as the pandemic has not ended an overall assessment awaits.

Looks like the present Quarantines will be maintained for show and control measures will not (and cannot) be greatly increased. More relaxations will await vaccination, but as they will be slow in coming there is a danger of re-opening too quickly as has happened in other countries and in some US states recently. The medical experts will tell the President about the limited and gradual effect on reducing transmission from vaccination and to wait to relax until a reasonably high percentage of the virus spreading population are fully vaccinated. But one option the government can consider here to have a quicker effect on new cases is to copy the UKs "delayed second shot" vaccine strategy.

Doctors working for the government spin the evidence:

Another example here of that. UK evidence on the UK variant found it was from 40% up to 70% more transmissable. Not 40%.

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...m?ocid=BingHPC

Putting the likely figure at the lower end of the confidence interval at 40%, rather than at the 55% central estimate adds support to the government line that the main reason for the large increase in cases is the public not conforming enough to health protocols

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Not at all surprising that yesterday the DOH announced a total over 4,500, the highest daily figure since Sept 14. Five labs did not report and it included a backlog of over 1,100 positives. Positivity from the latest testing at 10.7%. down slightly on the day before.

Deaths at 87 with 26 of them RDs.

Active cases at a little over 52k, the highest since October 17.

Hospital data: Severe down 16 at 780, Critical down 63 also at 780.

Regarding hospitals in the NCR, where cases have been increasing lately, QC, Makati and Taguig Cities are all at more than 70% bed use.
ICU beds are at high usage levels in Taguig, Pasig, Mandaluyong, Las Pinas, Muntinlupa and San Juan.

At the time of posting the DOH website is down..."Unexpected Error"! So no locational data at all. But we can safely assume NCR cases were well over 2k.
The latest NCR R estimate up to 1.86 from 1.8.

Will try to update later.

Really amazing that the DOH can get away with not announcing any regional data straight away when there are fast growing outbreaks in areas like the NCR and Central Visayas. They have the data and used to do so. There must be some effect of that, however small, on people's behavour as locational data is only presented in a more general way later in news bulletins rather than having the effect of them seeing one number and its increase.

Variants:

To make things more complicated a Philippine variant turning up in a Filipino traveler who flew from here to Japan. Two mutations of concern which have already been found in samples from the Central Visayas:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ippines/story/


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ae2bebfc99.jpg
BBC data
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105

The Philippines one of two, and the largest Asian country here, showing a long established case upswing.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Location now available for yesterday's cases:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5813d0ae02.jpg
Plus MIM 24, other Mindanao 53

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ecdf6fe59e.jpg
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d5d444d314.jpg


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a9d95d662d.jpg


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2a4c404fc2.jpg

NCR at 47% and together with 4A at 13.7% making over 60% of the national total..
All NCR cities had increased numbers. Thirteen NCR cities in the top 20 urban areas.
QC notable for being close to 500 new cases. Pasay continues to be high for its size and its count yesterday was nearly 130 higher.
Malabon much lower yesterday.

The provinces closely linked to MM all had substantially increased numbers with Bulacan and Rizal having increases of over 60% on the day before.

Central Visayas was the second highest region, with 11.2% of national cases.
The top 6 regions, which also included Central Luzon, CAR and Cagayan Valley, made up 89% of national cases.

Cebu City was still high, but down substantially on the day before.
Baguio City rebounded after a handful of cases yesterday to well over 100 cases.
Davao City was also higher than yesterday, but only up to 34 cases.

Finally, some evidence about the UK variant's covid outcomes. In a UK matched pair study ie comparing outcomes for those with the original variant and the UK variant involving 56k pairs of patients from last October to January it came out that the UK variant was much more deadly. Contrary to previous assessments, which only said it was more transmissable.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b17e91460a.jpg
Dr John Campbell's You tube Friday update

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Inevitably yesterday the national total (just) reached the highest daily total since August 26, up to 5,000, as the NCR and close by regions increased their cases. Seven labs not reporting. Positivity at a higher 12.8%. Out of the 5k cases over 1k were from backlog. Tests in process at 37k.

Deaths 72 and 23 of them were RDs.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5859d0cae9.jpg
Deaths on a steep downward trend...for now...

Severe and Critical hospital patients both up 14 to 794.
Active cases up to 56.7k.

The main locational detail:

Regions with percentage of national total in brackets.

NCR 2,368 (47.4), 4A 784 (15.7) Central Visayas 479 (9.6), Central Luzon 403 (8.1), CAR 225 (4.5), Cagayan Valley 189 (3.8).
The top 6 regions accounting for 89% of national cases.

The NCR increasing by nearly 10%. Region 4A with a 2% increase on the day before.

For NCR cities: QC 433, Manila 343, Pasay 224, Makati 181, Pasig 158, Paranaque 140, Caloocan 121, Navotas 114, Malabon 111 and Valenzuala 104 were those with 3 digits.
These cities made up over 80% of NCR cases. They are, except for Manila, cities where there are serious concerns about recent case growth an/or positivity. Very high attack rate still in Pasay at 39 per 100k. Navotas also high at 19 per 100k. For comparison many areas outside London are still at 25 to 50 per 100k.
In Taguig, QC and Makati hospitals are under great stress.

In region 4A case numbers in all provinces were up. The provinces furthest from the NCR, Batangas and Quezon also now showing rises:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...47026c7026.jpg
Batangas

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5b4aac6fa6.jpg
Quezon province

In Central Luzon Bulacan was down a little on the day before. But the second most populous province Pampanga has recently also shown a sharp increase:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7b128985b2.jpg
Pampanga

In the Central Visayas, which is mainly Cebu for covid cases, Cebu City at 169, was up a little. Together with LapuLapu and Mandaue Cities making just over 300 or 70% of Cebu Island's cases.

In the CAR Baguio City at 89, was down on the day before.
In the South Davao City up to 50 yesterday.

Latest news on variants:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/13/...brazil-variant

A detailed report from ABS-CBN. We have 98 cases of a new variant, named P3 discovered from samples taken from the Central Visayas.. It contains "mutations of concern"
Also our first Brazil variant case.

Experts from the OCTA group have for many weeks said that there is a strong possibility that variants are a major factor in the Central Visayas outbreak, in Pasay City and lately other NCR cities. The DOH have consistently downplayed their contribution.