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Re: NCR llockdown
During this pandemic four people I knew died from C-19. Three Filipinos (including a husband and wife) and an American. All were unvaccinated, all were overweight bordering on obese.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13077774)
During this pandemic four people I knew died from C-19. Three Filipinos (including a husband and wife) and an American. All were unvaccinated, all were overweight bordering on obese.
I don't know of any one who has died from this .... thankfully. But my sister was taken into intensive care a few days after taking the vaccination. She had a blot clot. Fortunately she is ok now. My concerns are the long term effects of the vaccine. Also the use of booster shots which doesn't give me great confidence with the vaccine. In the Philippines.... about 3% of the population contacted the virus. Of that 3% a miniscule suffered very adverse effects including death. I am protecting my self with the accepted precautions plus taking Zinc and vitamin d supplements daily. I hear that in Japan ivecticim (sp) has had a dramatic effect on reducing their last spike ... but I haven't checked the veracity of that story.... |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13077769)
Which I believe is significantly better than Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zenica, against the Omicron variant so far. The modern vaccines attack the spike protein whereas Sinovac etc are dead whole virus so gives a broader coverage.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Interesting...
I do believe if one is not mixing with the herd one can avoid the virus, although accidental exposure is always possible. Stay away from poorly ventilated places! Where we live a very good barbero opened up, but at the back of another shop. A shame, but I won't go to him again for a while and will use a more ventilated shop instead. My wife and I got our 2 shots each of Sinovac recently mostly because I can see certificates eventually being required to enter many establishments. Already necessary for transport. I know a long distance bus service from Bicol to Manila requires one. Someone managed to travel here ok, but was not allowed on the returning bus as he was only carrying a photocopy of the certificate. although that was acceptable coming to Manila. Long term effects? You mean adverse side effects. Don't think the amounts the body receives from 2 shots and maybe a booster can do much harm. Maybe the risk is greater if we keep needing boosters though. But still I would think very small. I think short term effects can make people nervous about long term effects. In that context there are reports that the much maligned Sinovac has very minor short term effects. That was true for us. But even a mild covid infection can give long covid! If you're nervous about vaccination watch the Red River Station Rawhide episode on You tube, giving an idea about US vaccine hesitancy back in the 1860s! Clint and Co deal with it! About whether Sinovac is better against Omicron we might get some SA data eventually as it is used there to some extent. But it's already been reported to have a lower overall effectiveness around the world. How would that balance against a wider protection spread? Interesting also that in SA they have used a lot of single dose J&J, which has also been reported to be only moderately effective overall. On Ivermectin in Japan this oracle can only call on the God Dr John for advice. But although I go along with most of what he says (and of course all which is strictly medical!)I think he got a bit over excited on Ivermectin. He also looked at other explanations, which to me seemed more credible. But he titled the video "Ivermectin in Japan". Which I think was a mistake. You can watch him being fact checked on that and the pharmacology by a professor of pharmacology, GTK Bioinformatics. Unfortunately though a too long video. It's only had 50k views so he may not get a response from the busy Dr J. There seems to be something in Ivermectin and Covid but an Oxford trial is in process and that will be more definitive. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 564 new cases announced with 30 held over. A handful of cases from 3 late labs were missed. Positivity down to 1.7% from 34.9k tests. Lowest positivity since April 5. Coming along 32.7k tests.
Recoveries 0.7k Deaths 40, 32 RDs Active 15,188. Lowest since June 7 Severe 2,463, down 26. Critical 1,067, unhanged. NCR ICU 27%, down 1%. National 27%, unchanged Regional data NCR 104 CV 69 WV 57 4A 52 CL 39 Zam 38 Thirteen regions up, but mostly small increases. The NCR had a handful of cases less and 18.4% of all cases. In the Visayas CV had 45 more and WV 19 more cases. These top 3 regions had 40.8% of all cases, down. The top 6 regions 63.7%, also down. Vaccination drive https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...x?ocid=BingHPC Presumably the LGUs had their plans for after the drive, so the government now adding those to its total so far, something over 7M, when the revised target was 9M! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Just a final parting shot regarding vaccinations. Published yesterday on the BBC News site "Germany bars unvaccinated from much of public life". This follows Austria and other countries within Europe. Given the past pattern of events here, I foresee a similar move once vaccinations have reached the so called heard immunity level. It may be a mandate to lowering restrictions to Level 1.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 544 more cases announced and 48 were held over. About 6 were likely missed due to 5 labs late to report.
Positives 1.8% from 32.9k tests. About the same number of tests in process. Recoveries 0.7k Deaths 235, 218 RDs Continuing high numbers not given much attention. Consistently mostly of people previously recorded as recovered! Active 14,977 Severe 2,433, down 30. Critical 889, down 178 A large downward count of critical patients for one day. Can we trust these numbers? These are in Primary hospitals only. Sadly, probably not much! NCR ICU 28%, up 1%. National 27%m unchanged Regional data: NCR 101 Zam 78 4A 49 WV 47 Cag 43 CL 41 Generally equally split between those that had a few more cases and those with a few less. Except for Zamboanga which reported 40 more over the report of the day before. The NCR at 18.6% of all cases. The top 3 regions with 41.9%, down. The top 6 had 66.0%, up. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...87d5872f15.jpg Dr John reviews a SA paper reporting substantial Omicron immune escape after previous infection. I haven't yet viewed this latest video and maybe Dr John says something about it. For the Philippines immune escape after vaccination would be the greater danger, given its lower infection rate, about half of SA's. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Twenty seven less cases yesterday but 117 were held over. One lab was too late to submit. Positivity 1.8% from 35.2k tests. About the same number in preparation.
Recoveries 1.1k Deaths 243, with 228 RDs! Active 14,338 Severe 2,425, down 8. Critical 815, down 74 (A good movement...or not?) NCR ICU 24%, down 4%. National 25%, down 2% Regional data: NCR 121 4A 66 CL 44 WV 44 CV 36 Zam 29 Small changes for the most part. Nine regions up, 7 down. The NCR added 20 to have 23.4% of all cases. The top 3 regions with 44.7%, up. CV had 18 more than the day before. The top 6 regions with 65.8% of total cases, down. https://www.rappler.com/nation/cebu-...ly-vaccinated/ A sign of what may come for other cities? Weekly update coming later today. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update:
For the Philippines as a whole the weekly change in new cases over the previous week's change was a fall of 53%. A faster rate of fall as for the previous week it was 29%. For the regions all but 2 for which I have data had falls in weekly new cases. The top 6 rates of fall were in: 4A 88% CL 84 EV 76 IL 75 SOCCSK 71 BARMM 64 The increase in Davao was more than x2 and for WV 31%. I have insufficient past data for the Bicol and CV regions, which were subject to downward revisions. For NCR cities all except one for which I have data show a faster rate of fall in new cases. Top cities, over 75% fall were: Caloocan, Las Pinas, Mandaluyong,Marikina, Pateros and Taguig. Also Manila (-39%), QC (-31%). Malabon had a150% increase, but on small numbers. Makati and Pasig had large downward revisions and their totals fell. For the provinces around the NCR: All except Quezon (-20%) showed large % decreases week on week. For cities and areas: Apayao province is the only area at AL3, 7 more cases over the previous week, but I have no data for the week previous to that. But there must be a good improvement. The rest of the country is at AL2 until mid Dec at least. Cities: Bacolod +5% Baguio +12 CDO -46 Cebu -99 Cotabato -79 Davao -50 GenSan -65 IloIlo +23 Zam -47 For Iligan and Tacloban cities, downward revisions leading to less new cases. Previously listed areas for which I do have the past data: Mountain province -85 IloIlo +23 Siquijor +99 Going the right way in most places except in the Davao region and to a lesser extent in one or two areas in the north and the Visayas. It will be interesting to see if one or two of the Davao provinces have their alert levels increased. Previously we have seen some reluctance in the administration to act in that part of the country with strong ties to the leadership. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 86 more cases were announced with 44 held over. Four labs were late. Nothing from the DOH on the effect of that. Positives 1.8% of 36k tests. A lower 32.3k in preparation.
Recoveries 1.1k Deaths 156 with 115 RDs. The DOH says that only 12 are recent from December. November had 56 and the majority, 88, were from before that. Active 13,853 Severe 2,410, down 15. Critical 738, down 77 A 31% fall in Critical numbers so far this month. NCR ICU 28%, up 4%. National 26%, up 1% Reginal data: NCR 121 WV 54 Cag 53 4A 47 Caraga 45 CV 44 Nine regions up, but only 2 substantially. The NCR with the same total as yesterday and 20.1% of all cases. Cagayan reported 29 more. The top 3 regions with 37.8% of all cases, down. Caraga had 29 more. The top 6 with 60.4% of all cases, also down. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...144fd6fe48.jpg Dr J's recent video "Sick Children in SA" also contains an interesting look at the possible effect of HIV on the Omicron data plus a good world review. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Sixty less new cases announced yesterday at 543. Five labs late (likely adding 2 cases only ) and 12 cases held over. Positivity 1,7% from 32.6k tests. Coming along a low 22.3k.
Recoveries: 0.8k Deaths 113, 102 RDs The DOH say due to data delays only 14 from Dec and 24 from Nov. The rest, 75, from before that, Active 13,548 Severe 2,366, down 44. Critical 676, down 62 NCR ICU 29%, up 1%. National 26%, unchanged. Regional data: NCR 102 4A 76 Cag 69 Zam 42 CV 41 CL 39 Twelve regions down in cases, 5 up. NCR down 19 with 18.8% of all cases. But 4A added 29. The top 3 regions with 45.5% of all cases, up. In places 4-6 Zamboanga added 20 cases, The top 6 regions with 68.0% of all cases, also up. Vaccination drive: Impressive total numbers but problems in some regions: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/06/...ination-target Those of you reading my posts some months ago will remember the good Fr Austriaco. Made some strange claims then. Claims to have a US post but is always here. Said he is working on a new vaccine. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/07/...mission-expert A molecular biologist is not usually an "expert" on epidemiology. A crazy idea on vaccinating everybody around airports! The real experts say Omicron will soon dominate worldwide. Dr John Campbell recently said "in weeks rather than months". Fr Austriaco wrong about the rate of spread in SA. As fast as Delta, as this graph shows: https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7de370909f.jpg SA new cases. A joke from the President.....but it shows he liked to hear that all would be fine. Will it? Also showing how people can get to be considered for high government positions! https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...-duque/story/? https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...781026e724.jpg As of Dec 5 The NCR might be well protected, except: 1. Population figures are from the latest Census, carried out during a period when many people left the NCR. They've probably now returned. 2. We don't yet know about vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. But other areas of the country are at present vulnerable and the vaccine drive will be interrupted by the Xmas and New Year holidays. Reasons to be cheerful....one, two, three.. from Dr John's latest video on Omicron: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bdd160a24c.jpg |
Re: NCR llockdown
I do wonder about the excuse about a lack of vaccinators. When we had our shots in the UK it was arrive at you assigned time slot, walk in site down, needle in arm and go and sit in your car for 15 minutes before driving home. Yesterday we bad our boosters in a mall in Balanga. Admittedly we didn't have an appointment but there was no queue but it was go to table 1 and collect forms, go sit down and fill in. Go to table 2 and sort out bar code etc, go to table 3 and process paperwork. Go to table 4 and receive vaccine. Go to table 5 and have blood pressure taken and blood oxygen. Sit and wait for vaccine card. That's why they missed their target.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Raffin,
You must be a fan of the late Ian Dury!!! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Gazza-d,
Why are you so surprised ? The Philippines thrives on excess bureaucracy, it keeps the unemployment rates down. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13079185)
Raffin,
You must be a fan of the late Ian Dury!!! |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13079183)
I do wonder about the excuse about a lack of vaccinators. When we had our shots in the UK it was arrive at you assigned time slot, walk in site down, needle in arm and go and sit in your car for 15 minutes before driving home. Yesterday we bad our boosters in a mall in Balanga. Admittedly we didn't have an appointment but there was no queue but it was go to table 1 and collect forms, go sit down and fill in. Go to table 2 and sort out bar code etc, go to table 3 and process paperwork. Go to table 4 and receive vaccine. Go to table 5 and have blood pressure taken and blood oxygen. Sit and wait for vaccine card. That's why they missed their target.
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Re: NCR llockdown
A bit long but a very interesting discussion.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13079191)
Just that song. Its actually Reasons to be cheerful. Part 3. Alpha, Delta, Omiron..
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Re: NCR llockdown
I waited for Trump to call it Variant Xi, but maybe he admires him too much.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Philosophical 11
(Post 13079481)
Cannot think why the third letter of the Greek alphabet was missed (Xi) and the new variant was named after the fourth letter.....!!
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Re: NCR llockdown
The DOH at 4pm still not giving locational data for yesterday. So for now just the national data.
Cases yesterday 356 with 15 from backlog and 6 labs late. Positives 1.4%, second lowest ever. Tests 24.4k, 22.3k in preparation. Recoveries 0.9k Deaths 92, 87 RDs Only 3 from December. Active 13,026 Severe 2,326, down 40. Critical 587, down 89 NCR ICU 29%. National 26% Both unchanged. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Regional case data for Dec 7:
NCR 96 4A 43 WV 40 CL 28 MIM 27 Bic 24 Only 5 regions with increases. NCR now below 100 but at a higher 27.0% of all cases. Much smaller daily changes now but WV added 8 to reach 40. The top 3 regions with 50.3% of all cases, up. Both MIM and Bicol added 12 over the day before. Top 6 regions with 72,5% of all cases, also up. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...57252982a7.jpg Latest Dr John video. In both the UK and here in the Philippines the authorities haven't been updating their lists of symptoms as they change with new variants. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 370 cases, included a 93 backlog. Five labs late to submit. Positivity 1.6% from 28.9k tests. 33k on the way.
Recoveries 0.9k Deaths 171Ds 150 RDs Only 6 in December 33 in November 132 before November! Active 12,510 Severe 2,261, down 65. Critical 476, down 111 Large falls! NCR ICU 24%, down 5%. Critical 24%, down 2% Regional data: Note: I posted this data earlier today assuming it to be the late coming figures for December 7. I find now it was for December 8! So I just repeat it now. Whether the December 7 regional data was ever put out I don't know. If it was it was up for just a few hours and I missed it. NCR 96 4A 43 WV 40 CL 28 MIM 27 Bic 24 Only 5 regions with increases. NCR now below 100 but at a higher 27.0% of all cases. Much smaller daily changes now but WV added 8 to reach 40. The top 3 regions with 50.3% of all cases, up. Both MIM and Bicol added 12 over the day before. Top 6 regions with 72,5% of all cases, also up. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday, Dec 9, 562 new cases announced, All labs reported on time, 29 cases were included from backlog. Positives 1.6% from 33.3k tests. Slightly more at 35k under preparation.
Recoveries 0.9k Deaths 176, 157 of them RDs. Only 8 recent ie from this month. 12 from Nov, 60 Oct, 68 Sep, 22 from Aug-Mar 2021. Back in 2020: 4 Nov, 1 Oct, 1 Sep The background: Recently the Philippine's high death numbers have lowered the country's ranking in resiliency indexes, despite improved case numbers and vaccinations. The DOH here have protested and started to give details on the data reporting delays. Which they used to give daily. As we can see here the delays can be long. At the same time again promising improvements. The international health statisticians surely won't buy that and will be even more sceptical about the accuracy of this country's death figures on his aspect and generally in future. Active: 12,169 ABS-CBN statisticians say the lowest for 18 months. Severe 2,177, down 84. Critical 446, down 30 NCR ICU 29%, up 5%. National 26%, up 2% Regional data: NCR 122 4A 80 CL 65 CV 60 WV 42 IL 31 Twelve regions up over the day before, most by double figures. The NCR added 26 to have 21.7% of all cases. Regions 4A and CL each added 37 new cases. These top 3 regions with 47.5% of all cases, down. CV had 51 more and Ilocos 15 more. The top 6 regions had 71.1% of all cases, also down. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a lower 379 cases, but 88 were held over. Also five labs late to submit. No details on that. Positivity 1.3% from 35.9k tests. About the same number in preparation.
Recoveries 0,6k Deaths 25, 19 RDs. Low as there are continued problems in the DOH data collection system. Severe 2,060. down 117. Critical 431, down 15 Continued falls but most patients are not in these "primary" facilities. NCR ICU 28%, down 1%. National 25%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 67 4A 44 Cag 37 CV 34 WV 34 CL 24 Only 4 regions with a higher report. The NCR with 55 fewer cases and a low 17.7% of all cases. Cagayan had 15 more. The top 3 regions with 39.0% of all cases, down. The top 6 with 60.7%, also down. The situation in the Philippine's neighbours: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6728ba2118.jpg Indonesia cases. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...62e7f71b25.jpg Malaysia https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...50df2385f7.jpg Thailand https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...965fae469b.jpg S Korea https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...809229545a.jpg Vietnam The last two countries caught napping by the Delta variant after dealing with the previous waves very successfully. I should imagine heads rolled in communist run Vietnam. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...67c0415354.jpg An Oslo Xmas gathering showing the high transmissability of the Omicron variant. |
Re: NCR llockdown
I read this morning that a booster jab affords around 75% efficacy against the Omicron variant. In addition the symptoms of this new variant are not as threatening and has a shorter longevity. So let the fun begin during 2022.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Latest Dr John video mainly focused on the much larger numbers going to be infected. So by end of this month an extra 10k in UK hospitals from a conservative hospitalisation estimate due to Omicron's lower severity. Could be shouldered but NHS already strained. Countries with poor health facilities will be in trouble. Looks like starting in Feb or March here?
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Re: NCR llockdown
What with the regular travel from southern Africa to the Philippines I'd be surprised if it not here already.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13080269)
What with the regular travel from southern Africa to the Philippines I'd be surprised if it not here already.
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Re: NCR llockdown
It is here already, but Shhh its a secret and we cannot allow it to interfere with Christmas.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Report for Dec 11 and weekly update:
Yesterday 356 new cases announced, a 33 backlog included and 4 labs late to submit. No information on those. Positivity 1.1% from 35.3k tests. Coming along 33.9k. Recoveries 0.9k Deaths 135, 125 RDs Active 11,373 Severe 1.991, down 69. Critical 406. down 25 NCR ICU 26%, down 3%. National 23%. down 3% Regional data: NCR 85 CL 40 IL 32 4A 30 WV 29 Cag 21 Small changes with 7 regions up, 10 down. The NCR with 18 more and 24% of all cases. CL cases were up by 16. The top 3 regions with 44% of all cases, down. The top 6 with 67%, down. Weekly report: As expected a slowing down of the recent weekly improvement nationally. New cases fell 34% last week on the week before. The previous weekly fall was 53%. Regionally there were 4 with large falls: Davao 93% NCR 60 BARMM 58 MIM 42 WV had a fall of 34% Increases seen in: CL 63% CV 56 IL 25 The rest had small % falls. For the CAR, Bicol, Zamboanga downward case number adjustments mean no meaningful calculation can be made of recent changes. For NCR cities: Downward case adjustments in Makati, Pasig and S Juan mean no meaningful calculation can be made. Otherwise % falls in all other cities with the exception of Malabon....+4% but on small numbers. For the provinces around the NCR: Three showed significant reversals: Bulacan x2 Batangas 83% Bataan 71 Cavite's increased by 10% Good falls in Laguna (48%) and Quezon (37%). Smaller falls in Pampanga, Pangasinan and Rizal provinces. Falls in most cities, except: Davao +11 Gen San 36 Tacloban 50 Iligan City subject to downward revision. Most areas I have been tracking experienced week on week falls except: Mountain Province x2 Nueva Vizcaya 24% Sulu 44 Although small numbers involved. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Today's covid report:
Due to low case numbers for now I will only give regional numbers every Sunday for the previous week. 402 new cases, 3 labs late and 40 held over. Positivity 1.2% from 36.8k tests, 33.9k in preparation. Recoveries 509 Deaths 184, 178 RDs 6 from Dec, 35 Nov, 73 Oct, 54 Sep, 10 Aug, 4 July, 1 June, 1 Feb!! Active: 11,255 Severe 1,967, down 24. Critical 401, down 5 NCR ICU 26%. National 23%. Both unchanged. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e0e0c75f0c.jpg Good news from SA on Omicron severity, but the R number there well over 2. For England it is presently 0.9-1.1. If it gets up towards 2 over the next month or so problems for the NHS. |
Re: NCR llockdown
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Re: NCR llockdown
Strain not determined.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 360 new cases. Five labs late but the DOH estimates only a likely four cases were missed. Held over 34. Positivity 1.1% from 35.8k tests. Likely that most tests now are simply routine. Tests on the way 35k.
Recoveries 519 Deaths 61 9 from Dec, 26 Nov, 23 Oct, 3 Sep 49 RDs. Active 11,083 Severe 1,948, down 19. Critical 399, down 2 NCR ICU 25%, down 1%. National 23%, unchanged. |
Re: NCR llockdown
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/13/...ely-to-prosper
They cocked up their petition with the year error, but they might have a point if, as seems likely, the Omicron variant takes off here next Feb/Mar. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Since April this year the incidence of reported deaths due to C-19 has on the whole been at a fairly consistent level. This fact really highlights the inaccurate reporting of both deaths and new daily C-19 cases. I shudder to think what will happen when Omicron is let loose here. There may well be huge under reporting due to the so far reported minor symptoms that Omicron presents. Make sure to get your boosters!!!!
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Re: NCR llockdown
Today a lower 235 new cases with 18 of those not recent. Late labs numbered 8, but the DOH estimate only 4 cases were missed. A record low 0.9% positivity was recorded from 24.1k tests. A similar number of tests in preparation.
Recoveries 780 Deaths 10 Obviously continued data issues! Active 10,526 Severe 1,868, down 80. Critical 393, down 6 https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7be36f1972.jpg Omicron in SA infecting all categories of vaccine status. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Just out: An eye catching article in the FT putting the daily UK Omicron infections way above the 50k or so daily presently confirmed. Doubling about every 2.5 days. Even measuring it there will become difficult due to the limit of test capacity, about 800k a day. The Philippines can do at most about a tenth of that. We will have some useful defences when it hits us....young population, good adherence to protocols, but the sheer numbers who will need treatment will stretch our rickety healthcare. What will they do about the majority with minor or no symptoms as they try to bring the economy back?
https://www.ft.com/content/d69a0a68-...c-1bbceec513b6 |
Re: NCR llockdown
With Omicron spreading at the predicted exponential rate and coupled with the milder symptoms, I foresee a world in which the majority of the population will have contracted this latest strain.
If I remember correctly, Dr John highlighted the fact that the virus need living hosts, and to kill off the host population is not in its best interests. So perhaps we will now live in an environment in which Covid in all its future variants will be regarded in the same way as t flu. |
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