Re: NCR llockdown
 

He was fact checked later as the nearly all virus transmission is well before serious illness and death. Then another person countered by arguing that with mild disease people go around more and therefore spread more.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Omicron has landed! Two cases, traveller's from Japan and Nigeria via Oman. Both in quarantine. Watch this space we could be in for an interesting Festive Season.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A weird red list from the DOH. Important countries like Andorra, San Marino. Only one African country. UK? There's so much Omicron there they've scrapped their red list.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/15/...rd-off-omicron

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes very strange, belies all logic. I can't help thinking that the DOH is so pleased with itself on "managing" a truly magnificent achievement in reducing the number of new daily cases.
How will they meet the challenge posed by Omicron? From the two already detected Omicron cases how many other passengers have been affected? I'm sure that they all have been tested.
How long does Omicron take to be detected after first exposure? Are we about to witness the spread of Omicron at warp speed (Sorry Captain Kirk)
On a positive note was good to read that millions of vaccines arrived at NAIA yesterday. I just hope that there are enough syringes to go round!
Can't help being a mite cynical.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Just two more new cases today at 237. But 3 labs were late to submit and 67 cases were held over. Positivity 1.0% from 30.4k tests. Tests coming along 29.8k.

Recoveries 565

Deaths 100, 96 RDs.
Which means nearly all from some time back.

Active 10,193

Severe 1.867, down 81. Critical 391, down 8

NCR ICU 24%, up !%. National 22%, down 2%

Now the IATF have reinstated a Green List of 41 countries, with protocols including 10-14 days total quarantine. Many African countries. Also China, which yesterday reported just 67 cases.
Took them a week here to confirm the two Omicrons!

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/15/...avel-protocols

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"Took them a week here to confirm the two Omicrons!"
I wonder how many cases are milling around?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Some more must have got in and so many here are unvaccinated so it must be at what the DOH calls local transmission, early stages of, in a few places.

No good waiting for any official confirmation, variant testing very inadequate Better to look for areas with very high case rate growth, indicating Omicron. One year ago we saw a high case growth in Pasay City. The OCTA group said it was most likely due to the Delta variant, which was more contagious than the Alpha. But the DOH never really admitted it was Delta driven. Except that now the majority of samples nationwide show Delta. The different symptoms of Omicron could also tell them but their reporting systems are nowhere near the level to pick that up:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6211bb2c58.jpg
Pasay City new cases.

As you said B keep quiet about it until the Xmas hols are over then start worrying about it!

It will be interesting to see how the IATF reacts. A lot of people might have mild illness. If Pfizer only gives you about one third protection against Omicron infection what does Sinovac give? Those people may be off work for a few days and worse may pass it on to the unvaccinated, immunocompromised etc. The number of cases around will be even greater than the official tally than they are now, due to the mild symptoms.
There are now about 5k people with moderate covid and up in the country. It's come down by a good number lately but the large number of Omicron cases could lead to that number going back up quickly.

Last....don't throw away your face shield!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I think I mentioned earlier that sinovac being a whole virus may perform better than the tailored vaccines So the countries that have largely be vaccinated with the likes of sinovac may fare slightly better than the rich countries that largely used the fancy expensive vaccines.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, I seem to recall Dr John speculating that may be the case, but:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/w...ong-study.html

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today 289 cases announced, but 45 held over and about 3 cases missed from 3 late labs. Positivity 0.9% from 37.1k tests. Tests on the way 36.6k.

Recoveries 380

Deaths 47, 40 were RDs.
5 from Dec
4 Nov
25 Oct
10 Sep
3 from Jan - Apr

Active 10,095

Severe 1,845, down 22 Critical 389, down 2

NCR ICU 23%, down 1%. National 22%, unchanged

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Omicron: SA vs Philippines

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c1a7b598cb.jpg
A good SA Omicron study shows the loss in protection there after 2 Pfizer jabs

But SA has only fully vaccinated only 26% of its population, Philippines 38%. Though with some regional disparity. But Boosters have started
Serious vaccine hesitancy in SA too.

Previous infection:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5d0458f230.jpg

SA showing more cases and it has just over half the population.
The SA testing looks better. It's done 340k per M against Philippines 222k.
But on balance on previous infection SA looks to have an "advantage".

So maybe these two opposing factors about the same.

SA has a relatively young population but with a bulge in the middle age:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2fd7550ac2.jpg

Look back in this thread to post # 1195 to compare with the Philippines. An even younger population. Bulging in the younger ages.
So looking at immunity the Philippines has the advantage there.

Also probably an advantage in conforming to protocols.

Despite its higher covid deaths per M SA health services have been equally ranked with the Philippines by a Lancet index, both countries at 119th place in the world:

https://businesstech.co.za/news/life...-vs-the-world/

So if SA can cope with Omicron so can the Philippines

Add to that the Philippines Omicron wave will likely start some weeks into 2022. Time to prepare, learn from other countries.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"learn from other countries." Let us all hope for that. But. Next year is election time and the silly season will start. Great displays of self righteousness, ego tripping, entitlement, pomposity and in some cases outright stupidity.The list is endless.
Let the professional be in charge and do not copy the UK. I see that Mr Bumble has just had his backside well and truly kicked, with the N Salop by-election result.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

We have to wait until January to have the final list of 2022 Presidential candidates. With Duterte Carpio and Go both out it's not clear who the Admin candidate will be. Maybe whoever the current President comes out for. Unlike the UK pandemic response is unlikely to be an issue as generally elections here are all about personalities, supporting clans, dynasties. But maybe if severe restrictions were re-imposed it might influence the vote.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today 582 new cases announced. Included a large backlog of 246. Only 1 lab late to submit. Positive 1.0% of 30.4k tests. Tests coming along 33.6k.

Recoveries 494

Deaths 74, 59 RDs

Active 10.167

Severe 1,867, down 81. Critical 391, down 8

NCR ICU 24%, up 1%. National 22%, unchanged

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today there were 291 more cases announced with 29 held over and 3 labs late to submit. Positivity at a record low of 0.9% from 35.5k tests, 33.8k in preparation.

Recoveries 523

Deaths 106, 97 RDs

Active 9,924

Severe 1,799, down 16. Critical 382
Incorrect figures given yesterday.

NCR ICU 24%, National 22%. Both unchanged.

Weekly update tomorrow.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update:

For the country as a whole using the cumulative totals there was an addition of 1,195 cases over the past week. Compared to 2,066 for the previous week.

But....

below I give the latest regional weekly additional numbers. Calculated from daily, not cumulative, figures.
I will explain the reason for the change in calculation method below:

NCR 597
4A 293
WV 200
CL 185
CV 151
IL 138
MIM 112
Cag 105
Dav 96
Zam 90
NM 80
SOCCSK 80
Cga 69
CAR 64
EV 43
BARMM 40
Bic 39

Total 2,382

Compared to the cumulative number 1,187 more. So DOH adjustments have significantly reduced the cumulative case addition. Previously I thought these adjustments were small but they're obviously not and from past examples of DOH practice may well involve cases from many weeks or even months ago.

So to be more up to date with case numbers I need in future to calculate using daily not cumulative numbers.
To avoid this sort of thing:

In the NCR the QC cumulative case number for Dec 18 was 177,250. For Dec 11 177,258.
Laguna province Dec 18 124,472, Dec 11 124,477

There are a number of other examples like that and there must be many other cases where adjustments have less obviously misled the size of the weekly addition. So today I won't continue with showing other weekly changes, since they are all based on cumulative numbers and could be misleading.

Since noting down daily figures for all these areas would take a lot more time I will confine my weekly reports in future to all regions, some of the larger provinces around the NCR and a few of the larger NCR and provincial cities.

On the case situation this week I can't say anything much due to the change in calculation. Also case numbers towards the end of the week were likely reduced somewhat in the VisMin typhoon affected areas. Some additional infections will probably be generated by people being displaced. They will show up next week.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...876eeff11e.jpg
Dr John reports the latest Omicron symptoms from the ZOE app in the UK. The SA list is similar, except there body aches are more prominent.

Here the DOH show this on their website:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ec71680fe2.jpg
As with the NHS the DOH here showing a very much out of date symptom guide, not very relevant for the Delta variant, with incorrect emphasis on fever and cough.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday 203 new cases announced but 28 cases were held over and a large number of labs were late to submit on Dec 17 due to Typhoon Odette, 41 in total. Positives 0.8% from 28.8k tests, 25.7k in preparation.

Recoveries 395

Deaths 64, 62 RDs.
Only 2 from this month,18 Nov, 29 Oct,10 Sep,4 Aug, 1 Apr

Active 9,729

Severe 1,800, up 1. Critical 380, down 2

NCR ICU 23%, down 1%. National 22%, unchanged.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today 263 new cases, 35 held over and 13 labs late to submit. Past experience suggests they would have added about 10 cases. Positives 0.8% from 28.4k tests. Tests in preparation 25.7k.

Recoveries 390

Deaths 45, 35 RDs.
9 from Dec, 1 Nov, 17 Oct
The remaining 18 go back to March 2020!

Active 9,592

Severe 1,797, down 3. Critical 378, down 2

NCR ICU 22%, down 1%. National 21%, down 1%

Some local spikes of new cases being monitored by the DOH:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/20/...covid-19-cases

Thought this was interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59639973

The BBC explaining what boosters contribute to immunity using an education analogy.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today the effects of Typhoon Odette restricted new cases down to 168. Held over were 39 positive results. Twenty labs were late making another 8 or so cases which were missed. Tests done were 23k, a similar number are in preparation.

Recoveries 372

Deaths 10, 6 RDs
Again typhoon restricted.

Active 9,384

Severe 1,804. up 7. Critical 377, down 1

NCR ICU 22%. National 21% Both unchanged.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

As expected. The UK shortened the interval last month.
The US seems to be staying at 6 months, for now. Earlier this year they had it at 8 months.

Presumably the 6 month interval had some science behind it so as we are never exposed I'm not going to rush to get it at 3 months

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today 261 new cases, 12 labs late to submit, 5 cases held over. The late labs would likely tp have added only about 5 more positives. Positivity 0.9% out of 29.6k tested individuals. About the same number of tests coming along.

Recoveries 395

Deaths 122, 113 of them RDs.
15 in Dec, 17 Nov, 39 Oct, 27 Sep and the rest, 24, before that back to April 2020.

Active 9,238

Severe 1,801, down 3. Critical 377, unchanged.
Notable only small changes last four days.

NCR ICU 21%, down 1%. National 20%, down 1%

Re: NCR llockdown
 

There were 288 cases declared today but 65 positives were not and held over. As well as that 11 labs were late to submit. They would likely have added about 10 more cases. Positivity a little higher at 1.1% from 32.1k tests. A similar number of tests in preparation.

Recoveries 270

Deaths 65, 60 RDs

Active 9,251

Severe 1,797, down 4. Critical 377, unchanged.

NCR ICU 20%, down 1%. National 19%, down 1%.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I see the UK went through the 100k case in a day yesterday.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

"I see the UK went through the 100k case in a day yesterday."
Don't worry omicron will be here in the New year.
On a serious note when compared to France and Germany the number of series/critical cases are very low.
Keep safe everyone during the festive season as there is evidence of complacency creeping in.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

We need to be careful with the hospital statistics here. They're only for what the DOH call "primary" facilities.

This is a chart developed by ABS-CBN one year ago from data given to a Senate inquiry showing then that most people who died from covid here did not die in, presumably, a primary hospital and that the majority of critical patients by then were also not
in a hospital.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9f8fa90097.jpg
I would suggest this situation is unlikely to have changed much over the past year. I believe the large number of "recovery deaths". usually the majority of deaths reported each day, are showing that.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases for Xmas Eve 310, but 90 cases held over. Five labs late. No details on their missed contribution. Positives a somewhat higher 1.4% on 28.6k tests. A similar number in preparation.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...020746206e.jpg
The OCTA group recently reporting an uptick in the NCR.

Recoveries 227

Deaths 69, 57 RDs

Active 9,321

Severe 1,796, down 1. Critical 375, down 2

NCR ICU 20%. National 19%.
Both unchanged.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The Xmas day DOH announcement gives 433 cases and a further increase in positivity to 1.6% from 25.8k tests. Included a backlog of 20 cases. Five labs were too late to submit.

Recoveries 369

Deaths 137, 129 RDs

Active 9,376

Severe 1,727, down 69. Critical 374, down 1

NCR ICU 19%, down 1%. National 18%, down 1%

Vaccination progress:

As of Dec 20 40.9% of Philippines population fully vaccinated (Johns Hopkins)
(Indonesia: 40.4%)

Regional progress (ABS-CBN Dec 19).

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ea522370ba.jpg
Some of the white shaded areas hit by Odette.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e7f7734911.jpg
From the UK ZOE app data. Dr John explains the need for large quantities of free lateral flow tests to be available. But Britain is apparently struggling to provide them. The Philippines has time on its side but I very much doubt they will provide anywhere near enough, leaving people to find at least P1,500. And they will probably need two.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Weekly update:

For the Philippines as a whole the cumulative figures show a 1,195 case increase.
But using daily figures for the 17 regions combined there is an increase of 1,854. It was 2,382 last week.
Obviously large adjustments are being made by the DOH in the cumulative figures, so the 22% improvement based on daily figures seems to be the best indicator of progress,

So continued general improvement except for a significant case increase in the NCR and some signs of slowing improvement in the regions bordering it.

The good figures for Caraga, EV, MIM and CV may not yet reflect cases due to onslaught of Typhoon Odette.

Improvements in:

NM 61%
Caraga 59
EV 58
SOCCSK 55
MIM 54
CV 50
BARMM 50
IL 46
Bic 41
CAR 36
Cag 25
Dav 22
WV 21
CL 12
4A 18
Zam 8

NCR +12%

Cases in the 6 most populated NCR cities were:

Manila 158
QC 92
Caloocan 41
Pasig 38
Taguig 36
Paranaque 32

Provinces around the NCR:

Cavite 85
Rizal 75
Bulacan 45
Laguna 32

Cities: (north to south)

Baguio 8
Cebu 5
Bacolod 33
CDO 8
Iligan 4
GenSan 9
Davao 26
Zamboanga 65

For cities and provinces comparisons based on daily data will start next week.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Strangely today's new cases totaled the same as yesterday's, 433. Six labs submitted late and 11 cases came from backlog. Positivity a raised 2.0% from 21.1k tests.

Recoveries 283

Deaths 13, 9 RDs.
Only 5 from December and the remaining 8 went back until March.

Active 9,522

Severe 1,777, up 50. Critical 374 unchanged

NCR ICU 17%, down 2%

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Dr John with a Boxing Day video giving more evidence on Omicron in the UK and the US.:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7f0895c04e.jpg
He didn't agree with the bracketed statement as much less likely to be hospitalised with Omicron.!

UK data showing 9-10 days with Omicron average time to hospitalisation compared to 17 with Delta. He seems to see that as an advantage. I suppose as less risk of it being ignored with increased virus spread. But with admission to hospital much more difficult here and taking longer is it so much of an advantage?

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e2f3821e32.jpg
Green Delta, Purple Omicron. Showing clearly Omicron displacing Delta. One in ten have it there!

Of most concern for countries like the Philippines with lower infection and vaccination is that he says for unvaccinated people who haven't been infected the severity of Omicron is only 11% less than from Delta.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Cases announced today were 318, including 5 from backlog. Late lab submissions from 26 labs would likely have added only another 3 or so cases. Positivity up again to 2.2% from 14.2k tests.

Recoveries 255

Deaths 11, 5 RDs
9 from Dec, 2 from Oct
Death reports much lower than earlier in the month so obviously a backlog is building up.

Active 9,579

Severe 1,777, Critical 374
Both unchanged and also obviously not being reported promptly this holiday season.

NCR ICU 21%, up 4%. National ICU 18%, up 1%

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 100 more cases declared today at 421 and 50 positives were held over. Sixteen labs were late. Statistics from the DOH suggest these late labs would have increased the total by about 10. Positivity at a higher 2.6% from 18.1k tests.

Recoveries 248

Deaths 2 only . Both RDs.
Both from Sep.

Active 9,750

Severe 1,778. up 1 Critical 374, unchanged.
Obviously no one counted recently.

NCR ICU 21%, National 18%
Unchanged.

The DOH again changing how covid data published:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/27/...on-covid-cases

You can believe this is all about better presentation to the public or more cover up from the DOH, what with cases starting to rise again, the prospect of Omicron in the New Year and the continued mess up over covid deaths data. It is certainly not true that the DOH tracker site gives all the information that are presently shown on DOH bulletins. Let's see next week.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

We can assume what semblance of transparency in reporting the facts is about C-19 is to be blown out of the window. Anyone with half a brain will expect a rise in new cases during and after the festive season. Social distancing does not exist nowadays.
I have an impression that with omicron and its apparent less virulent effects the authorities are taking the view of letting it take its natural course, perhaps citing the UK as a precedent. After all it is all about politics, particularly in the first third of 2022.
It is so good to be an old cynic LOL

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Cases from the most recent testing at 1,243, but only 889 announced leaving 354 held over for later announcement. Only one lab late. Positivity up by nearly 2% to 4.5% from 27.6k tests.

OCTA saying that the uptick "possibly" due to Omicron. The alternative explanation would be a delta driven increase due to increased pre Xmas movement starting 2 weeks or so ago. I suppose both could be operating.

Recoveries 214

Deaths 28, 25 RDs

Active 10,419

Severe 1,778. Critical 374
Both unchanged.

NCR ICU 23%, up 2%. National 20%, up 2%

The possibility that rapid tests are less reliable with Omicron:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/scit...story/?just_in

Re: NCR llockdown
 

An exceptional rise in NCR cases announced yesterday to 572, that's 64% of the national daily total. Those of you reading my daily posts as recently as one month ago may recall the daily NCR contribution to have been around 20%. Then going further back 25-30% was sometimes seen.

Previous daily figures 176,130,218,201,129,95,80...

Yesterday's high report may have included some backlog but it is clear a significant uptick started about 2 weeks before Xmas.

Manila 191. QC 97

Signs of a gentle increase in regions 4A and Central Luzon too:

4A 87 yesterday, then 55,51,42,35
CL 54,40,28,34,25

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Today 1,623 cases announced with 419 held over. Three labs late. Positivity up to 6.6% from 30.9k tests.

Recoveries 256

Deaths 133, 126 of them RDs.
4 in Dec, 6 Nov, 14 Oct, 20 Sep, 23 Aug
The rest. 66, back to July 2020.

Active 11,772

Severe 1,771. down 7. Critical 372, down 2

NCR ICU 24%, up 1%.National 20% unchanged.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...946a063a84.jpg
From the latest Dr John video about UK hospital data. Hospitals test 100% of patients for covid.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The NCR accounted for two thirds of the announced cases for Rizal day. A startling 1,092. We must also bear in mind that the DOH has been holding on to over 800 cases from the last 3 days. As yet we don't know if any are from the NCR. Of the six largest NCR cities I am tracking daily only Paranaque City had a relatively small increase over the previous day, of about 30%. The others averaged a doubling of cases.

So as the increases are so widespread I would think it is just due to all the holiday movement and gatherings rather than Omicron, which would likely show up only in one or two areas at first.

Last year:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a423044b31.jpg
A similar holiday increase which was followed by the alpha variant driven surge.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The New Year's Eve total up by over 1,300 on the day before's, to 2,961. There were held over cases for the 4th day running at 185. Positivity back over 10% from 30.5k tests.

Recoveries 256

Deaths 132, 117 RDs
9 from Dec, 3 Nov, 24 Oct.
The remaining 96 stretch back into 2020!
There were 22 from last year!

Active 14,233

Severe 1,701, down 70. Critical 342, down 30

NCR ICU 24%. National 20%
Both unchanged.

Some good news to end the covid year on:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2da523bd77.jpg
The T cell response from prior infection and vaccination is good against Omicron, according to a recent SA paper. Not peer reviewed yet, but approved by Dr John!

Re: NCR llockdown
 

For clarity, Dr John is not a medical doctor - he has a phd in nursing education.

Not everything he says on his youtube channel is accurate so always good to take info from a variety of sources.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes I know. He's made a few errors.

Bui it's not his finding, it's from researchers at the university of Cape Town, the number 1 ranked Uni in SA.

I think that justifies him presenting its findings to his viewers, the majority non medically qualified who can't or don't have the time to look around for other sources. If there's a radical change after peer review I am confident he will tell us.