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Re: NCR llockdown
Before yesterday's cases some clarification on yesterday's separately announced backlog of 3,439 cases. The DOH said they were in the data system over the last 3 weeks and except for about 50 were recoveries and 2 more deaths. How many more cases have simply disappeared for ever in their data system? Another source of under recording here.
Yesterday another 4,043 new cases and 435 held over. Positivity maintained at 8.6% from 52.1k tests. Coming along 48.9k tests. Recoveries 3.2k Active 50,630 Severe 3,088, down 2, Critical 1,316, up 20 NCR and National ICU 41/50% both unchanged. Regional data: NCR 660 4A 468 CL 328 Bic 296 CV 288 WV 274 Cag 264 SOCCSK 247 IL 224 CAR 222 100s 3 regions All but two regions had less cases. SOCCSK had 82 more and Bicol 25 more. The NCR with a low 16.3% of cases, down over 600. 4A in second place had over 500 less. CL was down by over 300. These top 3 regions with only 36% of all cases, down 5%. The top 6 regions had 49.8% of all cases, down 13%. The DOH claiming they have successfully controlled the spread of the delta variant here: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ealth-official We await the delta plus variant, which is likely to get here, despite all the controls. Not known yet how dangerous it is. But with so many not fully vaccinated we are vulnerable to new variants and variant testing to know they are here is slow. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 4,008 cases announced, 4 labs late but not affecting the total much. Only 47 from backlog. Positivity 7.8% from 50.8k tests. In preparation 46.4k.
Recoveries 6.9k Deaths 423 with 373 RDs High total from a large backlog mostly due to recent data problems Active 47,690 Severe 3,100, up 12 Critical 1,288, down 18 NCR ICU 42%, up 1%. National 49%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 627 Cag 593 CAR 424 4A 382 MIM 247 CL 236 ZP 233 WV 229 CV 214 UL 201 Bic 180 NCR down by a few and at a lower 15.6% of all cases. Cagayan added over 300 more. The CAR over 200 more. These top 3 regions at 41% of all cases, up. The top 6 regions 62.6%, up. Graph from OCTA showing a recent reduction in positivity in the NCR: https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d2e9722851.jpg Data issues: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd494baeac.jpg UK case data from the government. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...be9675f043.jpg From the ZOE symptom tracking app. Latest daily numbers over 90k. ZOE showing about twice as much infection as the government. it always showed more and some of that difference could be explained by self reporting. But now a large difference. Dr Campbell is confident in the ZOE data and is sure UK cases are about 50% under reported. He gives two reasons. One is the increasing use of home lateral flow test kits in the UK. The other is the UK government ignoring the change of symptoms with the delta variant causing many people not to be correctly diagnosed. Something which is surely happening here. Interesting that the ONS in the UK , which looks at a wider range of data than the government, is much closer to the ZOE figures. See "Inconsistencies in official numbers". You tube, October 29 https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8db6ac4ccc.jpg Govt gets severely marked down by Dr John. Weekly update later. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update:
Percentage change last week's new cases on the week before. Philippines -49 Regions: 5 increasing MIM +39 SOCCSK 24 Caraga 25 BARMM 15 NM 5 IL -46 Cag 34 Bic 29 CV 27 WV 26 EV 24 All others decreasing by less including the NCR and 4A each by 11, CL by 17% NCR cities (all AL3): Increasing: Malabon 36 Makati 33 Las Pinas 31 Taguig 7 San Juan 5 Pasig 1 Valenzuala 1 Nine decreased: Navotas 39 Paranaque 33 Pasay 30 Caloocan 26 Marikina 25 Manila 21 Muntinlupa 19 QC 14 Mandaluyong 7 Pateros no change. Provinces around Manila: Most decreased: Pampanga 41 Quezon 33 Cavite 25 Pangasinan 18 Batangas 8 Laguna 8 Except: Rizal +6 Bulacan 3 Bataan 0 Other cities: Angeles -3 Bag +18 (AL 3) Zambales +41 Lucena -49 Naga -31 Sor -8 Bac -34 (AL 4) Cebu C -45 IloIlo C -26 (AL 3) LapuLapu -23 Tac -17 CDO -4 Cot -15 Dav +10 GSan +24 Iligan -20 Zam -21 Areas: Aklan -65 Bohol -50 IloIlo -26 |
Re: NCR llockdown
About 600 less cases announced yesterday at 3,410. Four labs late. Backlog low at 66. Positivity 7.2% from 46.5k tests. A lower 41.3k in preparation.
Recoveries 5.8k Deaths 128, 91 RDs. Severe 3,076, down 24, Critical 1,312, up 24 NCR ICU 39%, down 3% National ICU 46%, down 3% Regional data| NCR 570 4A 373 Cag 328 CAR 289 MIM 225 CL 212 WV 207 CV 207 IL 202 100s 3 regions Only 3 regions had more cases, all with small increases.. NCR at 16.7% of all cases. The top 3 regions at 37.3% of all cases, down. The top 6 regions had 58.6% of all cases, down. Philippine vaccine update using ABS-CBN data: 26.8M 2 doses, 31.4M 1 dose At Oct 28 100.5M doses arrived at 29 Oct 78M distributed as of Oct 25. About 24M doses available now for LGUs, allowing for some recent deliveries over the last 2 days. About 22M yet to be distributed. Assuming brands match well, enough to add second doses to the 31M who have had 1 dose, with about 15M over. About 60M then fully vaccinated, over half the adult population. https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/m...accine-tracker |
Re: NCR llockdown
The ABS-CBN vaccine tracker really highlights the uneven vaccine distribution across the nation. Storage for Pfizer and Moderna must be a huge issue to deal with as they require ultra cold storage facilities That combined with intermittent power supplies in the provinces, particularly in Mindanao.
The big question is now 'Will the governments vaccination target be met by years end?' Food for thought. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yes, it is, as the Vaccine Czar just a few days before the DOH announced 70% by year's end he was talking February.
Experience elsewhere eg UK, USA shows that after an initial spurt vaccination progress slows as you get further into lower priority groups and, in less developed countries like the Philippines, more remote areas. Also, are they working down the priority groups properly? Back in early July only about 10% of Seniors were fully vaccinated. They came out with a target to do 90% by the end of that month. Complete failure as by mid October still over 3M or about half not fully done. |
Re: NCR llockdown
New cases down by about 300 yesterday, but 8 labs were late to submit. From DOH data it is likely these would have added only 30-40 cases. Positivity 7.5% from 41.7k tests. A much lower 29.5k coming.
Recoveries 5.1k Deaths 104, 68 RDs Active 43,185 Severe 3,153, up 77. Critical 1,296, down 16 NCR ICU 39%, unchanged. National ICU 45%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 537 Cag 408 CAR 340 4A 282 CL 247 CV 190 Bic 183 WV 183 IL 133 MIM 119 The NCR had a few less cases with 17.2% of the nation's total. Cagayan in second place put on 80 more. CAR added 49 more. These top 3 regions had 41.2% of all cases, up. The top 6 regions had 64.3% of national cases, up. NCR cities: https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...7?ocid=BingHPC The OCTA group see a downward trend for all cities, despite some of them having increases recently. I picked out 3 cities with high weekly increases in my weekly report last Sunday. They mention others based on more recent data. They say they partly base their view on a 0.53 R number. Case numbers can be delayed, they say. But how do they calculate their R numbers? Information on that is difficult to find but it does have a lot to do with contact tracing, which is known to be poor. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday about 800 less cases announced and a 285 backlog was included to have 3,117 cases. Eight labs late but they would only have added about 20 more. Positivity 6.8% from 29.7k tests, ABS-CBN say the lowest positivity since Feb 24. Tests coming along maintained at 29k.
Recoveries 4.7k Deaths 128 with 106 RDs. Active 40,786 Severe 3,059. down 94. Critical 1,305, up 9 NCR ICU 40%, up 1%. National 46%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 454 CAR 279 Cag 232 4A 201 CL 183 IL 165 WV 143 MIM 126 CV 113 Dav 101 Fourteen regions were down. The NCR by about 80 cases and had 19.7% of all cases. Top 3 regions 41.9% of cases. The top 6 had 65.7%. Ilocos added 32 cases.. Date of onset DOH charts: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...cd6697c933.jpg National cases down with some slowing. Note gap from trend line showing lag. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c206c0c853.jpg Similar for the NCR. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...iolated/story/ The DOH think that by putting out "worst case" scenario projections they will keep up public social distancing and the following of other protocols as things open up. They did something similar a few months ago with the delta variant increase. But they lose public confidence as it's only the large numbers that get the attention. But some rise is likely from the holiday season, the cooler weather and the lack of testing. One reduced by vaccination progress .Though a larger rise could come from a new variant next year. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in The problem is that the IATF is a large body. They have no equivalent of the UKs SAGE here, Here these small issues need a decision from the very top. Looks like that won't come so these useless and annoying plastics will linger on for a while as they are first dropped by the larger cities followed by the others. The lead taken by the President's home town: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/02/...-in-davao-city I think individual presidential candidates could gain a lot of support by just campaigning on this issue. |
Re: NCR llockdown
A further fall by about 700 in total cases announced yesterday. But 7 labs were late to submit and 60 positive results were held over. Positivity at 5.6% from 29.5k tests. Coming along 33.5k tests.
Recoveries 4.3k Deaths 186 with 132 RDs Active 38,014 Severe 3,079, up 20 and Critical 1,293, down 12 NCR ICU 44%, up 4%. National 39%, down 7% Big daily changes. Regional data: NCR 237 IL 178 4A 157 Cag 152 CL 145 CAR 121 Bic 87 The NCR with over 200 fewer cases and a low 14.9% of all cases. 4A had 40 less but Ilocos reported 13 more. Top 3 regions 36% of cases, down. Cagayan, CL and the CAR all had less cases. The top 6 regions 65.2% of cases, down slightly. Bicol had 40 more. A nationwide fall in cases: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c9b7ffb695.jpg From the top: NCR,4A,CL,CV, WV, Cag, other regions. Concentrating on the bars rather than the misleading trend lines there is a similar case fall showing in all regions. But vaccination roll out differs greatly: https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1f73c90183.jpg By far the most vaccination in the NCR and its surrounding regions. As of Nov 2. Areas where vaccination is low also have falling cases. So vaccination levels are not the main reason for falling cases. While there is no doubt there is not enough testing and some misdiagnosis so that many cases have been undetected it is clear that virus transmission has been so far successfully restricted by good adherence to the protocols, movement restrictions and business restrictions etc. Schools not back. Compare to the UK's high vaccination rate with a high infection rate. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/03/...vincial-levels ABS-CBN's latest vaccine report says that about 27M doses distributed nationally have not been used. As vaccination in Manila and around is now reaching target levels the great majority of those would have gone to the remoter areas of Luzon, Visayas and particularly Mindanao. Of course it is more difficult to vaccinate in less developed, remote areas of the country and LGUs in those areas have had nothing to do for many months so they could not be expected to keep resources and arrangements on standby for that long time waiting for supply. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Deaths still remain stubbornly high. Dr John in his latest edition mentioned a data tracker in the Economist showing excess deaths as a measure of more likely death rates compared the the widely underreported national figures. For the Philippines the excess death rate is in the region of 110k to 230k compared to the government's 43.4k.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-app-economist |
Re: NCR llockdown
Good spot.
I note that Indonesia's lower estimate is at 300k, above the Philippines 100k.With one of the youngest populations in the world this country has done very poorly on deaths. As its case record was better than Indonesia's up to a few months ago the focus on deaths here was missing...up to now maybe. Let's see if this is picked up by local media. I'm not hopeful it will given the lack of attention given to covid related deaths here. The daily publication of the many "recovery deaths" over the last 18 months with no attention given to the issue by anyone in the media or Congress is just one example. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Also Dr John in his latest video looks at another set of estimates on covid deaths from US researchers at Washington State Uni..
They put the Philippines figure at double. But just look to see what they are projecting for deaths here early next year: https://covid19.healthdata.org/phili...aths&tab=trend |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday about 170 more cases announced and nearly 500 held over. Two labs late. So the 1,766 total could have been well over 2k. Positivity up at 6.6% from 34.2k tests. Tests under preparation higher at 44k.
Recoveries 2.6k Deaths 239, 214 RDs. Active 37,159 Severe 3,047, down 32. Critical 1,301, up 8 NCR ICU 37%, down 2% National 43%, down 1% (yesterday should have been NCR 39%, National 44%) Regional data: NCR 350 Cag 195 CL 162 4A 160 CAR 153 WV 135 Zam 113 The majority of regions had moderate case increases. The NCR added over 100 to have 19.8% of the total cases. The top 3 regions with 40.0% of all cases, up. The top 6 with 65.4%. Unchanged. NCR to Alert level 2 from today until Nov 21: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in The 17 LGUs were going to stay longer at level 3. Rush by government to open up as they were slow to accept the case fall was genuine. But still indoors eg restos only at 50% indoor capacity. Not a profitable situation with the holiday season preparation in full swing. Changes between alert levels 3 and 2 are small. The pressure will be on to drop to AL1 soon. The NCR curfew off as well. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Another daily increase in announced cases, about 600 more, to 2,376. And again nearly 500 cases were not announced and held over. Also 4 labs were late to submit. Positive were 6.5% from 44.2k tests. In process 46.4k tests.
Recoveries 2.1k Deaths 260, 219 of them RDs Severe 3,065, up 18. Critical 1,308, up 7 These are those only in Primary Hospitals. Many sick with covid are in lower standard institutions or at home. NCR ICU 37%. National 43%. Both unchanged. Regional data: NCR 378 CV 209 4A 201 CL 196 Cag 194 WV 194 ZP 175 Bic 167 CAR 142 IL 110 The NCR added only 28 to have 15.9% of cases. Region 4A had 41 more. But the CV had about 160 more. These top 3 regions with 33.2% of all cases, down 7%. WV reported about 60 more. The top 6 regions had 57.7% of total cases, again down about 7%. Elsewhere Bicol added 80 more and Ilocos about 50 more on the day before. . |
Re: NCR llockdown
Again more announced cases, about 300, at 2,656. Making the cumulative total exceed 2.8M. Held back were 44 cases and 8 labs were late to submit. The DOH gave no details on them. Positives at 5.6% of 48.2k tested. A similar number of tests in process.
Recoveries 5.1k Deaths 154, 118 RDs. Active 34,866 Lowest since March 2 Severe 3,033, down 32. Critical 1,290, down 18 NCR ICU 37%, unchanged. National 47%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 454 Cag 314 CL 228 CV 213 4A 210 CAR 157 WV 152 IL 144 Dav 137 Zam 126 Bic 123 MIM 116 The NCR added 76 cases at 19.1% of all cases. Cagayan added over 100 and CL 32. Top 3 regions at 37.5% of total cases, up. The top 6 regions at 59.3%, up. Vaccination: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...tf-spox/story/ Illustrates well two growing tendencies here: 1. A somewhat militaristic mindset which favours compulsion, strong measures over persuasion by other means. 2. Aiming for 100% when 90% will do. That last 10% in most situations are going to take up great effort and resources. Teens vaccinations: Starting soon in Upper Cavite. Weekly update later. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update
National case increase again down substantially week on week, by 48%. It was a 49% weekly fall previously. Regionally all 17 fell substantially. The lowest rate of fall, 32 to 36%: BARMM Ilocos Bicol Central Visayas Highest rates, over 60%: Caraga Calabarzon Central Luzon Davao NCR 53% All NCR cities fell substantially. Only the tiny LGU of Pateros showed an increase. Lowest rates of fall, 27% to 36%: Marikina Paranaque QC Highest, over 60%; Caloocan Makati Navotas S Juan Valenzuala Pasay Provinces around the NCR: All except Bataan had a large % decrease week on week, between 50 and 74%. Bataan a 2% fall only. Other cities and areas: Nearly all had substantial % falls in the weekly increase: Angels 84 Baguio 52 Zambales 37 Lucena 37 Naga 38 Sorsogon 50 Bacolod 41 Cebu C +38 IloIlo 66 LapuLapu 24 Tacloban 37 Aklan 27 Bohol 53 IloIlo 56 CDO 23 Cotabato 45 Davao C 64 GenSan 62 Iligan 35 Zam C 48 Alert 4 areas: Neg Occ 38 Dav Occ 60 Alert 3: Siquijor +43 Davao DN 53 Lanao DN 40 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday 2,605 cases, including 85 from backlog. Two labs late to submit. Positive 5.2% from 48.5k tests. A slightly lower 42.4k in process.
Recoveries 3.9k Deaths 191, 151 RDs. Active 33,526 Severe 3,017, down 16. Critical 1,274, down 16 NCR ICU 38%, up 1%. National ICU 42%, unchanged Regional data: NCR 409 Cag 283 4A 245 CAR 239 CL 199 ZP 163 CV 157 WV 156 Bic 146 IL 131 The NCR with a few less cases at 15.7% of all cases. Region 4A added 35 more. The top 3 regions at 36.0% of all cases, down slightly. The top 6 had 59.0% of all cases, again down slightly. The CAR added 78 and Zamboanga 37 over the day before. https://www.rappler.com/nation/doh-m...ion-not-sudden The DOH defending the surprise decision to put the NCR down to Alert level 2. Not likely that mobility will be maintained at current levels over the next 7 or 8 weeks as Xmas approaches and families want to make up for all those months cooped up with their kids. That plus more family get togethers is bound to lead to an increase in cases in the early New Year. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a lower 2,087 cases, 8 labs late to submit and 160 cases held over. Again a 5.2% positivity from 43.2k tests. Tests in process down to 26.7k from the weekend.
Recoveries 3.5k Deaths 91, 66 RDs Active 32,077 Severe 3,047, up 30, Critical 1,283, up 9 NCR ICU 40%, up 2%. National 43%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 388 Cag 232 4A 188 CAR 182 CL 172 CV 142 Bic 131 WV 119 All regions with less cases, except for 2....EV with 23 more, Davao 1 more. The NCR with 18.6% of cases, The top 3 regions had 38.7%, the top 6 62.5% of total cases. Both up. Face shields: Manila lifts mandatory requirement except in hospitals. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/08/...of-face-shield Joins Davao City, IloIlo City. The interior secretary goes along. Otherwise he would be slapping down the President's daughter! Other NCR Mayors express support for that through the MMDA chairman. Something from an IATF working group expected Thursday, he says. What that body is doing is a mystery. Except perhaps trying to save face. There is no scientific data on those plastic shields to study. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/08/...-shield-policy A comprehensive BBC update on the world covid situation: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51235105 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yes the removal of the face shield protocol is indeed a face saving manoeuvre. I suspect some with influence and power have already secured their ill gotten gains from this totally unnecessary exercise.
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Re: NCR llockdown
People here must have collected many millions of these plastic shields. Will the recycling plants here cope? At present on You tube the only suggestions for recycling them at home are in the garden and for making decorative flowers. When they finally get non mandatory I expect the resourceful poor will come up with many other ideas.
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Re: NCR llockdown
It has been heartening to see the new cases of COVID-19 decrease rapidly in the past couple of weeks but maybe we should not be optimistic that the pandemic is coming to an end.
The first case of B.1.617.1 variant has just been detected in the Philippines. Not sure if this is the variant that created yet another spike world wide recently but it certainly is responsible for the surge in India. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13069581)
People here must have collected many millions of these plastic shields. Will the recycling plants here cope? At present on You tube the only suggestions for recycling them at home are in the garden and for making decorative flowers. When they finally get non mandatory I expect the resourceful poor will come up with many other ideas.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Philosophical 11
(Post 13069611)
It has been heartening to see the new cases of COVID-19 decrease rapidly in the past couple of weeks but maybe we should not be optimistic that the pandemic is coming to an end.
The first case of B.1.617.1 variant has just been detected in the Philippines. Not sure if this is the variant that created yet another spike world wide recently but it certainly is responsible for the surge in India. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Philosophical 11
(Post 13069611)
It has been heartening to see the new cases of COVID-19 decrease rapidly in the past couple of weeks but maybe we should not be optimistic that the pandemic is coming to an end.
The first case of B.1.617.1 variant has just been detected in the Philippines. Not sure if this is the variant that created yet another spike world wide recently but it certainly is responsible for the surge in India. |
Re: NCR llockdown
The national total down by nearly 600 yesterday. But 250 cases were held over from those testing positive. Fourteen labs were late. The DOH gave information that it is likely they would only have added about 30 cases. Positivity 5.4% from 30.7k tests. A slightly higher 33.3k in preparation.
Recoveries 2.9k Deaths 46, all were RDs. The DOH say the low number due to "technical issues" ie could not get into the data system. All were RDs as they come separately from a routine DOH review of recoveries. Active 30,544 Severe 3,050, up 3. Critical 1,283, unchanged. NCR ICU 37%, down 3%. National 42%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 307 4A 177 CAR 150 CL 141 MIM 102 IL 93 NCR with 21.8% of all cases. Top 3 regions had 45.0% of all cases, up. Top 6 with 68.8% of all cases, up. Ilocos reported 22 more cases. BARMM 18 more. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/09/...-shield-policy One presidential candidate knows a good issue to campaign on. Three day national vaccination drive at end of the month: https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in A bit of a gimmick and I bet the LGUs are not happy about organising it. All about making the year end target and getting vaccinations done before the Xmas season takes priority for people. Meanwhile one other ie not vaccine supply issue: https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ation-in-bicol |
Re: NCR llockdown
Dr John's latest video is a brilliant review of a number of pharmacological papers about protease inhibitors. They break down protein chains. If you can find something to stop them then you reduce viral replication.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ba1032a121.jpg A screenshot from "Interesting video". I've stopped putting You tube links here as they disappear. One example of a protease inhibitor is Paxlovid, a new drug from Pfizer: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...ment-candidate But there are others eg Remdesivir....and Ivermectin If you follow Dr John you can guess Ivermectin beats all of them. "Come on ya all" refers to the solid opposition to Ivermectin as an antiviral from the makers, the WHO, many national health bodies and well known specialist doctors. This morning watched as the normally excellent CNN chief medical correspondent Dr Sanjay Gupta put it down. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Raffin
(Post 13069954)
Dr John's latest video is a brilliant review of a number of pharmacological papers about protease inhibitors. They break down protein chains. If you can find something to stop them then you reduce viral replication.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ba1032a121.jpg A screenshot from "Interesting video". I've stopped putting You tube links here as they disappear. One example of a protease inhibitor is Paxlovid, a new drug from Pfizer: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...ment-candidate But there are others eg Remdesivir....and Ivermectin If you follow Dr John you can guess Ivermectin beats all of them. "Come on ya all" refers to the solid opposition to Ivermectin as an antiviral from the makers, the WHO, many national health bodies and well known specialist doctors. This morning watched as the normally excellent CNN chief medical correspondent Dr Sanjay Gupta put it down. |
Re: NCR llockdown
DOH very late with the local data today.
Yesterday 2,646 cases announced, They included a backlog of 1,108. Seven labs were late, which would have contributed about 140 more positives. Which were at 4.3% from 35.8k tests. A higher 42.1k tests are in preparation. Recoveries 4.0k Deaths 99, including 84 RDs. Active 29,138 Severe 3,030, down 20 and Critical 1,282, down 1 NCR ICU 40%, up 3%. National 42% unchanged Regional data: NCR 553 4A 286 CAR 239 CL 236 IL 186 MIM 179 WV 155 Cag 133 Bic 117 All regions went up on the day before. NCR with 20.9% of all cases, up by about 250. Both 4A and the CAR up by around 100. These top 3 regions at 40.7% of cases, down. CL and Ilocos were each up by around 100. MIM gained 77. The top 6 regions at 67.5%, down. WV, Cagayan and Bicol were each up by around 100. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4 Gen San and Cebu Cities also drop mandatory face shields, with some exceptions. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in Can you believe this? Commercial vaccines may not be offered here for 10 months! Phase 3 trials must be completed first to get a licence. Eg Pfizer's will take until July. But their vaccine and most others in use here have already been given many millions of times around the world in countries with advanced data collection and analysis, much better than here. The results are usually easily available. What is likely to come out different here? You would think an exception could be made, given the situation? I'm sure, come next year, there will be many people here who would rather get their vaccine from a reputable company than from their LGU. And they will need to wait that long to do so? |
Re: NCR llockdown
I can believe anything that happens here.
People in high places always looking for a quick buck, coupled with the national pastime of overcomplicating even the most simple of tasks. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday nearly 700 less cases announced and that included a backlog of 151. Two labs late with a very small effect on cases. Positivity 4.9% from 43.4k tests with a similar number coming along.
Recoveries 2.4k Deaths 142, 104 of them RDs. Active 28,660 Lowest since Feb 22. Severe 2,981, down 49. Critical 1,261, down 21 NCR ICU 38%, down 2%. National 41%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 445 4a 180 CV 179 CL 146 WV 133 ZP 110 SOCCS 109 IL 107 Bic 104 Most regions with fewer cases reported, except CV with 85 more and four Mindanao regions, Zamboanga, N Mindanao, Davao and SOCCSKSARGEN, with small increases. The NCR had a higher 22.5% of all cases. Top 3 regions 40.7%, unchanged. Top 6 with 60.4%, down. Faceshields revolt: LapuLapu City, Cebu joins the rebels. IATF announcement promised today. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/11/...f-face-shields |
Re: NCR llockdown
A similar new case number announced at 1,894 but 504 positives were held over. Two labs late to submit. Positivity higher at 5.5% from 43.6k tests. About 2k more in process.
Recoveries 1.4k Deaths 170, 145 RDs. Active 29,105 Severe 2,969, down 12, Critical 1,281, up 20 NCR ICU 35%, down 3%. National 39%, down 2% Regional data: NCR 424 Cag 218 CV 172 4A 158 CAR 132 CL 112 Bic 108 Dav 106 NCR at a similar share, 22.4% of total cases. Cagayan put on 127 more to come second. The top 3 regions at 43.0%, up. The CAR added about 70 more to come fifth. The top 6 regions at 64.2% of all cases, up. Face shields: Muntinlupa joins Manila in the NCR to stop mandatory face shields outside hospitals. The promised policy not yet forthcoming. Whether still not agreed by the IATF or waiting for the President's approval we don't know. Many other Mayors will join the rebels if nothing comes out soon. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/12/...-shield-policy https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ed25c46157.jpg Screenshot from Dr John's "Alternative facts" video. Dr John gently fact checks the team of journalists from Facebook who fact checked his "Interesting video", now renamed "New Pfizer drug and Ivermectin", which he put up earlier this week. He lets them off lightly but perhaps because of that it's a very effective put down. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday a little over 100 more announced cases over the day before, at 1,997. Held over were 71 cases. Positives 4.5% of 46k tests. Coming along 40.6k tests.
Recoveries 1.7k Deaths 238, 216 RDs. Active: 29,382 Severe 2,968, down 1. Critical 1,263, down 18 NCR ICU 30%, down 5%. National 36%, down 3% Big daily falls. Regional data: NCR 524 4A 191 Cag 147 CAR 138 CV 132 ZP 128 WV 116 CL 111 Dav 102 The NCR with a higher 26.2% of all cases. Region 4A had 32 more cases. The top 3 regions 43.2% of all cases, up. Zamboanga added 38 more. The top 6 regions had 63.1% of cases, down. Elsewhere, Ilocos reported 32 more than the day before to have 70 cases. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9bc0ef274d.jpg National cases by estimated date of onset falling nicely but note the delays of many weeks. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e20e08a18d.jpg Deaths have fallen at an inconsistent rate starting in late September. Given the DOH data problems we can't be at all sure over the last few week's progress. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...75c6c6eb4f.jpg A chart shown in Dr John's latest video. UK government case data showing a concerning steady rise in the red line....cases in the fully vaccinated. Weekly update coming later today. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Weekly update:
This week the falls in cases generally continue. But as would be expected after the recent large falls at a much lower rate. Some areas and cities show a week on week increase. Philippines: new cases last week 14% less than the week before. Regions: Three Mindanao regions..Caraga, Davao and SOCCSKSARGEN increased their new cases by between 25 and 40%. Region 4A had a 12% increase. The NCR increased by 5%. Falls in the other 12 regions went up to 37% (Cagayan). In the NCR 7 cities showed a week on week increase: Leaving out Navotas, due to its small numbers of new cases, they were (highest increases first): San Juan Muntinlupa Malabon Las Pinas Caloocan Biggest falls: Valenzuala 44% Manila 41 Marikina 39 Paranaque 25 QC fell by 8% For the provinces around the NCR most showed a modest increase in new cases from the week before. The exceptions were Pangasinan and Quezon, which had 34 and 24% falls respectively, and Bataan, which had a fall of 20%. The figure for Bataan shown last week was incorrect. It should have shown a fall of around 20%. For cities: Note: for some cities and areas % changes are now calculated from small numbers of cases. Angeles -11 Baguio -29 Zambales +77 Lucena -41 Naga -1 Sorsogon -12 Bacolod -27 Cebu -32 IloIlo +6 LapuLapu +79 Tacloban -18 CDO -32 Cotabato -49 Davao +11 GenSan +19 Iligan -37 Zamboanga -15 Visayan areas: Aklan +55 Bohol -18 IloIlo -23 MECQ areas: Mountain Province +4 Catanduanes, Bicol 0 Alert Level 4: Negros Occ -28 Davao Occ 0 Aurora -60 Alert Level 3 Siquijor -61 Davao del Norte -9 Lanao del Norte 0 (rough estimate due to missing data) |
Re: NCR llockdown
About 70 less cases announced yesterday. Backlog included was 327. Two labs late. Positivity 3.9% from 41k tests. In preparation 38.7k.
Recoveries 3.1k Deaths 309, 245 of them were RDs. Active 28,102 Severe 2,951, down 17, Critical 1,265, up 2 NCR ICU 31%, up 1%. National 34%, down 2% Regional data: NCR 400 Cag 234 4A 186 CAR 163 CV 138 CL 120 ZP 98 WV 91 MIM 86 The NCR down by over 100 to have 20.8% of all cases. Cagayan added 87. The top 3 regions with 42.6% of all cases, down. In the other regions in the top 6 the CAR had 25 more. The top 6 regions had 64.4% of cases, up. Caraga and NM added 30 and 43 cases respectively. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1 This is one of the last countries in the world to not resume some type of face-to face schooling. Operating a widely criticized paper modules system for most State pupils. Are they thinking they have a choice not to resume physical lessons soon? They could look at the many examples around the world and gradually bring back students to classrooms rather than do these small scale pilots. https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...-november-2021 The new Alert levels until the end of November... covering all but a few areas now. The latest OCTA update: https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...265bd96ef8.jpg A tale of two Negroses: Negros Oriental was doing better than its twin province, Negros Occidental. Not any more. Occidental was previously under level 4, now 2. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...18806f31be.jpg Negros Occidental https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d2d943ffe4.jpg Negros Oriental Reginal vaccination progress, by Nov 4: https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c814f8a6cc.jpg Total doses given. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Yesterday nearly 400 less new cases, although 58 positives were held over and a few cases were lost, only about 5, when 3 labs submitted late. Positivity 4.1% from 39.1k tests. Tests in preparation down to 27.8k.
Recoveries 2.6k Deaths 128 Active 27,025 Lowest since Feb22 Severe 2,919, down 32. Critical 1,243, down 22 NCR ICU 30%, down 1%. National 35%, up 1% Regional data: NCR 317 Cag 156 4A 155 WV 105 CAR 103 CL 100 MIM 91 NCR down 83 cases to have 20.5% of all cases. Overall 12 regions were down in numbers and they included Cagayan and 4A. The top 3 regions had 40.6% of all cases, down. WV added 14 but the CAR and CL were both down. The top 6 regions had 60.5% of all cases, also down. Elsewhere, EV added 39 and Davao 17. Face shields: At last! Face shields out unless Alert levels 4 or 5 In 4 optional for LGUs, in 5 mandatory. Note: AL 5 the same as ECQ. https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/15/...-level-3-below The President weighs in on the 2 year old covid case. Gives advice to LGUs to stop parents bringing U12s to Malls. The Philippines does not have many places you can go out to and walk around in comfort, Malls are the main places. Policy being made from one unproven case, the DOH view on this not followed, and another example of mistakenly trying for 100% risk reduction when young kids and parents have been confined indoors for so long: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/16/...-public-spaces But I think the President's influence on LGUs is waning. 12-17 years vaccination roll out: Our LGU started yesterday with about 550 first vaccinations done. Today they continue with adult vaccinations. The times of further 12-17 vaccinations not yet announced. They will certainly need them as hundreds were turned away yesterday. You had to get there by about 5am to get one. We didn't! From a rough calculation I have made our LGU is likely to have at least 10,000 12-17 year olds. The national age distribution shows about 24% of the population of that age. This is the current estimated Philippines population pyramid, with an exceptionally large bulge towards the younger ages, even compared with many other developing countries: https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...34c0a7356f.jpg Another aspect of 12-17 vaccination are the longer vaccination lines, as parents, guardians come along. At our local school they normally go out of the school area and down a busy main road, but sensibly yesterday the line was confined to the school premises. But much of it dangerously snaked and compressed in a concreted assembly area, risking covid transmission. Face shields and masks required to be worn but we know they are often not worn properly by the young, especially in those circumstances. Those with comorbidities were asked to not come yesterday but the line included some, identifiable from carrying the required medical certificates. The idea to reduce the risk to them, but the message did not get through to some. Another complication involved with vaccinating this age group. |
Re: NCR llockdown
So Dr John in his last post included an important piece about 'herd immunity', or the lack thereof. Quoting the CDC in Washington DC herd immunity may never happen, quite a sobering thought. So all those LGU leaders who have been lauding 70% herd immunity target reached better think again. To end on a positive note yesterdays declared new cases dropped to below 1000. Now the real test will be battling complacency.
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Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Bealinehx
(Post 13072260)
So Dr John in his last post included an important piece about 'herd immunity', or the lack thereof. Quoting the CDC in Washington DC herd immunity may never happen, quite a sobering thought. So all those LGU leaders who have been lauding 70% herd immunity target reached better think again. To end on a positive note yesterdays declared new cases dropped to below 1000. Now the real test will be battling complacency.
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Re: NCR llockdown
The lowest daily total since Dec 28 at 849, although 6 labs were late to submit and 51 positives were held over. Positives 3.2% from 28.1k tests. In preparation 33.3k.
Recoveries 2.4k Deaths 99, 83 RDs. Active 25,464 Severe 2,928, up 9. Critical 1,248, up 5 NCR ICU 33%, up 3%. National 34%, down 1% Regional data: NCR 207 Cag 112 4A 88 CL 61 CAR 60 IL 50 NCR 24.4% of all cases, up. Top 3 regions 47.9%, up Top 6 68.0%, up All regions with less cases yesterday, except NM, up by 11. For once the Philippines doing better than most of its neighbours: https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c5823907ef.jpg Indonesia: latest daily total 347. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5e1c04fdfc.jpg Malaysia 5,413 https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a7aafa8dd5.jpg Thailand 5,947 https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d83cf9f868.jpg Vietnam 10,259 |
Re: NCR llockdown
Originally Posted by Gazza-d
(Post 13072273)
The continuing high case levels in the UK seems be driven by face to face schooling. It will be interesting to see what happens when they start full scale face to face classes here in the Philippines.
The Philippines now has a "last mover" advantage, it can learn from other countries, as OCTA suggests: https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/16/...must-says-octa Masks a bit uncomfortable in the heat and will limit class interaction. Presumably windows will be open and AC, if there, off. Perhaps limit masks to outside the classroom? Given the crowded state school classrooms that are the norm here they could organise a half way return at first, restricting classroom tuition to certain subjects. Perhaps for those which pupils have found most difficult under the mainly paper based module system. But there's one big problem with any innovative solutions here. Getting them approved at the very top. The government wants to leave office and fight the election claiming a win over the virus. Low case numbers and their modest vaccination targets achieved. Never mind about having a serious, long running epidemic here. Seeming more likely now the experts are very unsure about herd immunity ever being achieved. However good the precautions a school return of well over 20M pupils will have an upward effect on cases here. Schools are used for vaccination centers too and other venues will have to be found. The present government leadership will not want to balance those negatives against the great damage done by 2 years lost physical schooling. So I expect any local or general case rise and schools will be closed again. |
Re: NCR llockdown
Nearly 350 more cases yesterday compared to the day before. Only 15 from backlog and just one small lab late to report. Positivity at 3.5% from 33.6k tests. Tests on the way at 39.0k.
Recoveries 2.8k. Deaths 309, 264 RDs. DOH lamenting that of the 309 188 occurred back in October. Says again it will improve deaths data reporting. Active 23,846 Lowest since Jan 12. Severe 2,862, down 66. Critical 1,192, down 56 Regional data: NCR 315 4A 174 WV 85 CL 83 Dav 77 CAR 75 NCR added 108 to have 26.5% of all cases. 4A had 86 more and WV 55 more. These top 3 regions had 48.2% of cases, up. Davao added 52 more. Top 6 regions with 68%, unchanged. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1 Restaurants not making a profit at the existing indoor dining maximum. Temptation to overlook if one member of a party has no vaccination certificate. What are they going to do if the answer is "yes..no vacc cert and going to dine in, but first will do some shopping". Are they going to follow them around, warn the establishment they are told..? Stop them coming in? A really silly suggestion! Anyway, unfair to give mall main door security this extra duty, especially when many coming in will not answer truthfully. How many are putting the correct information on those ridiculous contact tracing slips? |
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