Re: NCR llockdown
 

Regional data announced yesterday: 300 and over

4A 811
NCR 683
W Visayas 670
E Visayas 599
Davao 468
C Visayas 402
C Luzon 303

The great majority of regions reported many less cases. C Luzon fell by over 400. NCR, 4A and Zamboanga each by well over 100.
4A led again with 14.6% of all cases.
E Visayas stood out with 241 more.
Six regions were in the 200s.

The top 6 regions had 62.6% of all cases, up 1.3%.

Provinces;

NCR bubble: Laguna had about 140 less, Bulacan 44 less. Rizal went down a little and Cavite had only one more case..

Laguna 219, Cavite 217. Bulacan 107 and Rizal 77

Bataan with 203 the day before went down to only 13.
Batangas had 38 more to go up to 187.
Pampanga went down 38 to 68.

NCR bubble was at 22.5%, down 1.3%.

For the NCR cities: the majority were down, notably Taguig by 43.
Small upward changes in Mandaluyong and Valenzuala.

Top 6: QC 204, Manila 71, Caloocan 62, Pasig 51, Paranaque 44 and Makati 43

Selected cities:

Bacolod 158, up 35
Baguio 45 down 8
CDO 60, down 71
Cebu 46, up 5
Cotabato 1, down 17
Davao 232, down 20
IloIlo down 78
Tacloban 76, up 27
Zamboanga 53, up 19

Bohol 17, down 164

Angeles 16, down 42
Tarlac 25 up 1
Zambales 29, up 3

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Over 500 less cases yesterday although for some reason for the second day running many cases were held over, 343 of them. Added to that 8 labs did not report. Positivity stuck at a high 13% from 43k tests. It will be less than that in Manila and around but more in other areas where cases are on the increase. Information on regional positivity has dried up lately. About the same number of tests in progress.

Recoveries 7.1k.

Deaths 128 .....after the strange numbers yesterday no information on RDs.

Active case number at 55,847

Hospitals (primary only): Severe 1,061, up 23 and Critical 726, down 24

NCR ICUs at 42%, down 1% (nationally 57%, unchanged)

Location information again not presently available.
Will update later.

Face shields

Following the President's statement on face shields being only needed in hospitals, confirmed soon after as law by his spox, we have this after the IATF appealed:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/21/...ovid19-outdoor

So only indoors then.

Then later a volte face from the President

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/21/...indoor-outdoor:

They're so necessary outdoors due to the danger posed by a new variant, yet to be proved to be here at all. Certainly unlikely to be anywhere near community transmission. Delta (Indian variant) cases number 17, all caught on arrival. Three cases lately were in seamen, caught in S Korea. Not the first time a new variant has panicked the leader to change policy. See below on education.

Laughable but people are being fined for not having them on outdoors. Listened to Raffy Tulfo yesterday as best I could as it was in Tagalog, but it was about a woman who got off a bus inn QC, having left her shield on the bus she was immediately fined P300 by police waiting a the bus station....who themselves were not wearing face shields!

This is often what wearing them outdoors means in practice

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d6633a8c13.jpg
Photo from ABS-CBN, QC recently.

Where we live they are mandated inside supermarkets and inside the local fresh market, but outside optional. Let's see if that changes following the latest edict from the President. Weren't cyclists given an exemption? Is that off now? We await clarification.

Education:

First the UK variant and now the India (Delta variant). as a reason not to at least trial face to face classes. Philippines education getting further behind other Asian countries:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/21/...are-vaccinated

Vaccination of young children and teens must follow vaccination of the older population, which looks unlikely to reach a satisfactory level until the first quarter of 2022. Up to that period of time more new variants could come to the attention of the President and delay schools going back again. Actually I read Britain is not sure it will be doing vaccinations for young children at all. Maybe of little value and so unnecessary.
I'm sure the Education Secretary, despite what she says, is very frustrated. It's not as if the modular programme is a great success.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Low weekend testing as usual plus bad weather in C Luzon area and 12 labs late in submitting gave only 3,666 new cases. The DOH giving no indication on how important these missing labs are in terms of positive cases. No backlog to speak of, so up to date. Positivity down at 11.8% from 31.2k tests. A higher 30.9k tests being prepared.

Recovered 6.8k
Deaths 60 with 56 RDs.
Active cases: down by over 3k at 52,696
Severe 1,054, down 7 and Critical 738, up 12

NCR ICU bed use at 46, up 4%.
Davao City 94%
Nationally 57%, unchanged.

Regional data:

No regional (or any other locations) data forthcoming for the over 5k cases announced June 21. Unless it was published and taken off on the DOH website between 8 pm last night and 4 am this morning!

But there is data for yesterday's much lower total.

200 and over cases

4A 684
E Visayas 447
NCR 403
W Visayas 316
SOCCSK 297
C Luzon 251
N Mindanao 211

4A leading again with a higher 18.7% of all cases. E Visayas has been posting increasing numbers lately

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3187d65e5a.jpg
E Visayas

Top 6 regions 65.4% of all cases, nearly 3% higher than on June 20.

NCR Cities: QC 84, Manila 55, Pasig 48, Muntinlupa 35, Caloocan and Las Pinas both 29.

Provinces:

NCR bubble: Laguna 275, Cavite 256, Bulacan 48, Rizal 46
28% of all cases nationally.

Elsewhere:

Batangas 90
Pampanga 72
Pangasinan 47
Bataan 25
La Union 47

Selected cities:

Bacolod 86
Baguio 59
CDO 53
Cebu 14
Davao 42
GenSan 42
IloIlo 53
Tacloban 40
Zamboanga 32

Bohol 159, on June 19 was 181, June 20 17. No DOH info for June 21.

An OCTA update on the recent covid situation:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...19-octa/story/



https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...1a0e8e688d.jpg
Bohol

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday nearly 700 more new cases at 4,353 as the tests from Monday are completed. Backlog of 544 included. Six labs late. Does the DOH not say anything about these late labs when they are only small ones? Positivity dipped a little to 11.4% from 33.4k tests. Coming along a higher 45.6k tests.

Recoveries 7.1k

Deaths 119 with 74 of them RDs.

Active cases fell to 49,862
Severe 1,047, up 7 and Critical 748, up 10
NCR ICU at 44%, down 2%. National unchanged at 57%

Regional data (200 and over)

NCR 587
Davao 511
4A 500
W Visayas 469
N Mindanao 331
C Luzon 390
SOCCSK 284
C Visayas 201

NCR back to the top with 184 more cases. By accident 4A fell by the same amount to come in third place. Davao obviously put in a big testing effort to record more than 400 more cases after the weekend and come second.

N Mindanao and W Visayas both added well over 100 more cases. Zamboanga 99 more.

Top 6 regions at 61.8% of all cases, up nearly 4%

Western Visayas has with the most active cases of the 3 Visayan regions at 5.4K (E Visayas 4k and C Visayas 2.9):

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c277f6c34c.jpg
W Visayas steep increase.

For NCR cities generally small changes, up in 10 cities:
QC up 52.

Top 6: QC 136, Manila 61, Paranaque 48, Pasig 45, Caloocan 41 and Taguig 40

In the provinces:

NCR plus bubble: Cavite and Laguna both fell substantially. Bulacan and Rizal rose by the 20s.

Laguna 202, Cavite 140, Bulacan 77 and Rizal 75

NCR plus bubble at 28%, down 3%

Selected cities:

Bacolod 57, down
CDO 59
Cebu 28
Davao 278, up over 200
GenSan 63, up
IloIlo 65, up
Tacloban 16, down
Zamboanga 23, down

Bohol 118, down 41

The DOH has just downgraded the NCR from medium risk to low risk. But it is a large diverse area of 16 cities with a big population. Vaccines meant for the NCR have been sent instead to the Visayas and Mindanao as they are experiencing surges. So most of the population is vulnerable. The genome sequencing here is poor (see below), so the NCR is open to any new variants, as probably happened in Pasay City earlier this year.

DOH charts for some cities , but first NCR: ignore trend lines, they are calculated from announced dates not infection dates):

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...453d799d78.jpg
NCR downward trend

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6a5c16b8d7.jpg
QC, lately slight rise..


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0aa8ab1a4f.jpg
City of Manila downward and flattening..

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2e7fe42849.jpg
Caloocan downward trend

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...172d9bfd16.jpg
Makati slightly upward..

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f4ac3befe8.jpg
Pasig downwards...

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3798df40f6.jpg
Taguig downwards..

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7d1e2b41c5.jpg
Las Pinas slightly upwards...

So a mixed picture.

Genomre sequencing:

We can just slowly sequence 1% of our cases. One machine, cost P85M, 5 years ago.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/23/...mples-1percent














,

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Nearly 1,700 more cases reported at 6,043. Only 1 lab late. Backlog 463. Positivity at 12% from 46.5k tests and more at 51k coming along.

Recoveries 4.5k

Deaths 108 with 61 RDs. The suspicion is that these continuing high RDs reflect higher mortality in the more remote areas.
Total official deaths now exceed 24,000.

Active 51,410

Severe 1,028, down 19 and Critical 720, down 28

ICU NCR 44% and nationally 57%, both unchanged

Worldometers, a reputable US covid data source, say that for currently active cases worldwide 99.3% are mild and 0.7% serious.
Latest here: 95.1% and 2.5%
For past cases the Philippines more in line with 98.2% survived and the world figure 98%.
Dead here at 1.74% against 2% world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Regional data: 300 and over

4A 862
W Visayas 767
NCR 714
Davao 628
C Luzon 520
C Visayas 406
Zamboanga Pen 328

Thirteen regions added cases from the day before.
Region 4A increased the most of all regions with 362 more added over the day before. W Visayas had nearly 300 more, the NCR and Davao added around 100 more.
C Luzon in fifth position added 230 more. C Visayas added over 200 more. Zamboanga and E Visayas added about 150 more.

Top 6 regions at 64.5%, up nearly 3%.

In the NCR bubble provinces Cavite added 87 more, Rizal 73 more.

Laguna 247, Cavite 227, Rizal 148 and Bulacan 80

Something to monitor: adding the first three to Batangas (127) and Quezon (73) gives 822 for the Calabarzon region, which the DOH say has 862.

The NCR bubble at 23.4% of all cases, down 1.4%.

Bataan added nearly 100 more to 136.
Pampanga added 59 to 128 and Pangasinan 24 to 93.

Not much change for the NCR cities.
Manila added 44 over the previous day, Taguig 29.

QC 127, Manila 105, Taguig 69, Las Pinas 53, Pasig 49, Makati 44, Caloocan 43

Selected cities:

Bacolod 116, up 59
Baguio 40, up
CDO 78, up
Cebu 66, up
Davao 289, up 11 on the day before
GenSan 66
IloIlo 99, up 34
Zamboanga 54, up 31

Sinovac vaccine:

There was a report from Indonesia in the UKs Independent that more than 350 doctors with two Sinovac jabs caught covid, a minority seriously infected:

https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/s...-b1867632.html

Of course the DOH on the defensive:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/doh-r...neffectiveness

Nonsense about it not being a controlled trial and dividing the number by 5,000. Both not appropriate criticisms here.
Noteworthy that the delta variant suspected.

Sinovac has been the main vaccine also in two other countries: Mongolia and Chile:
Being looked at to see if Sinovac is really a good vaccine for poorer countries.

Mongolia has only a 3M population and 55% have had 2 Sinovac doses, 62% 1 dose.
Chile has a population of about 20M, 57% have had 2 doses, 72% one dose. Sinovac 16.8M and Pfizer 3.9M doses.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7fc168b808.jpg
Mongolia


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...eba3278c2b.jpg
Chile....roller coaster ride, lately down..

Delta plus variant:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...7ad8294ef2.jpg
Basically it has features of both the UK and SA variants, which could mean even more transmission and immune escape than seen with the delta (Indian) variant.






T

Re: NCR llockdown
 

More cases as is usual at the end of the week. More than 700 over the day before. Positivity down a little to 11.7%. . Not so up to date with a backlog of 895 results included. Tests 51k falling to 46.7k in preparation.

Recoveries at 2.9k the lowest for 3 weeks.

Deaths 116 with 61 of them RDs.

Active cases at 55,293 with 1,051 patients Severe, up 23 and 719 Critical, down 1

NCR ICU 42%, down 2% (National 57%, unchanged).
Davao ICU up at 95%

Regional data: (300 and over)

4A 933
NCR 718
W Visayas 672
Davao 629
C Visayas 528
E Visayas 523
C Luzon 486
SOCCSK 367

4A retaining top position with 71 more cases and 13.7% of all cases.. Main movements were in the Visayas where Central added more than 100 cases and Eastern more than doubled its cases.
SOCCSK nearly doubled its cases
Further down the table the CAR added 178 more cases to 288 and MIMAROPA had 69 more over the day before to 149
Zamboanga had more than 150 less at 151.

Top 6 regions at 58.8%, down nearly 6% showing the national spread.

For the NCR cities:

Five cities had substantially more, 3 less.
Pasig added 26.
Manila's fell by 31. Pasay's halved.

Las Pinas went from 4th up to 2nd position:

Top 6: QC 137, Las Pinas 77, Pasig 75, Manila 74, Taguig 69 and Caloocan 55

Provinces: The main change was Laguna with an increase of 135 to 382 cases.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...446f5ace0e.jpg
Laguna case fall reversed lately...


Cavite 172, Rizal 101 (both fell a little), Batangas had 30 more to 157. Quezon had a few more to 89.
Bulacan had 26 more to 106.

NCR bubble area 21.7%, down.

Again adding up the 4A provinces numbers gives less than the DOH 4A regional total, yesterday by 32.

Also Bataan 83, less
Pampanga less with 94
Pangasinan had more at 96.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 44, down
Baguio 118, up 78
CDO 53, down
Cebu 65
Davao 329, up 40
GenSan 87
IloIlo 110, up
Tacloban 82, up 50
Zamboanga 40, down

Re: NCR llockdown
 

A few more cases only at 6,871 yesterday. Positivity from 50k individuals slightly up at 11.9%. Backlog slightly bigger at 917. Tests coming along down a little at 47.6k

Recoveries 8.7k

Deaths 92 with 53 of them RDs.

45 recoveries went to active cases.

Active cases now at 53,447.

Severe 1069, up 18, Critical 695, down 24

NCR ICU 44%, up 2% (National 58%, up 1%)

Focus on the situation in General Santos City:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/minda...th-care-system

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...65d43a9d52.jpg

Regional data: (300 and over)

NCR 867
4A 831
W Visayas 801
Davao 588
C Visayas 548
C Luzon 478
Cagayan 370
CARAGA 329
SOCCSK 305

The NCR with a lead of just 36 cases over 4A as it had nearly 150 more yesterday while 4A's total fell by 102. W Visayas took 3rd place after adding 129 over the previous day.
The NCR had 12.6% of all cases.
Cagayan in 7th place added 100 more. Zamboanga had 130 more.
The CAR was noticeable in that it unusually reported a very low total of 31.

The top 6 regions at 59.9% of all cases, up 1%

In the NCR 9 cities had substantially more cases, 2 less.

Muntinlupa had 26 more, Pasay 27 more.

Top 6: QC 168, Manila 92, Makati 88, Taguig 77, Caloocan 76 and Pasig 65.

Provinces: Cavite had 85 more to 257. The Bulacan and Rizal totals also rose, but only a little. Laguna's fell a little.

NCR Bubble Provinces: Laguna 329, Cavite 257, Bulacan 126 and Rizal 122.

NCR bubble at 24.8% of all cases, up 3%.

Bataan had 21 more at 104.
Batangas fell by 20 to 137.
Quezon reported only 19.
Pampanga had nearly the same at 93. Pangasinan had 16 more to 112.
La Union had a higher 50 cases.

The 4A mystery deepens. For some strange reason the DOH do not count Lucena City in the total for Quezon Province, even though it clearly is in that province. But yesterday it only reported 8 cases, leaving another discrepancy yesterday, slightly higher at 28, on the reginal total. There is a also a provision for unknown cases in a region, but yesterday there were none.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 181, up 137
Baguio 22
CDO 71
Cebu 100, up 35 noteworthy rises last 2 days
Davao 346, up
GenSan 65, down
IloIlo 110
Tacloban 49, down
Zamboanga 29, down

Bohol 218, up 49

Covid symptoms:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b1585c8a16.jpg

Dr John looking at some updated UK data on covid symptoms. Relevant in two ways to the Philippines. As Britain's vaccination roll out has yet to fully vaccinate millions of younger people the symptoms are going to be more applicable to countries with younger populations. Also the Indian delta variant is dominant in the UK, it now accounts for over 90% of cases. If symptoms differ greatly then countries without good genome surveillance, like the Philippines, have another way to assess the progress of the delta variant, if it ever started to spread locally and in communities. Not that I expect the DOH here to do anything about that!

It seems that the main general difference is that the virus is giving more common cold symptoms, especially in people that have already been vaccinated
The update looks at those with 2 vaccinations, 1 and none .I have focused on the latter as the great majority of people in the Philippines haven't had any vaccine. Although a few per cent have already had covid.

Headache, sore throat and runny nose are the top 3 symptoms for those without vaccination or with only one. Whereas the NHS shows on its website , and has shown for a long time, the main covid symptoms as fever, a new continuous cough and change in smell and taste. In the update fever has fallen down the list somewhat and the third symptom, anosmia, has fallen down even further to be an unusual symptom.

I do note that in the comments one person is suggesting these reported symptoms may well be affected by it being the Hay fever season now in the UK.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Thanks for your daily updates Raffin which are always interesting.... but depressing as far as the Philippines is concerned.

I have read that 50% do that want the vaccine and 50% have not returned for the second dose. I also read that Sino Vac has an efficacy of only 67% . If that Is true....then the outlook looks gloomy. And we have the spectre of the Delta variant knocking on the door.

Regards

Re: NCR llockdown
 

I guess it makes sense that covid is changing into more common cold !ike symptoms as the common cold is also a SARs virus.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, next year does not look good. Not a vaccine roll out but a spray as the DOH divert the meagre supplies. They can keep out the delta variant only by increased isolation of the country from international arrivals. They must keep it out when they are so reliant on the bargain basement Sino Vac. No wonder PAL filing for bankruptcy.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Although the Sino Vac looks to have a lower efficacy it still largely prevents severe infections and keeping people out of hospital. Given the choice of Sino Vac or no vaccine Sino Vac is still the best choice. My 80 year MIL in Luzon and 90 year old aunt on Negros are still waiting with no sign of a vaccine in sight.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 800 less national cases at 6,096 were announced yesterday with 3 labs late in submitting. Positivity a tad up at 12.0% from 47.9k tested individuals. A low backlog of 345 included.

Recoveries 6.9k

Deaths 128 with 69 of them RDs.

Active cases down about 900 to 52,570

Severe in hospital down 18 to 1,051, Critical up 41 to 736.
NCR ICU up 1% to 45%, nationally down 1% to 57%

Location data:
Not available yet. Will update later.

A look at the death figures after another high total was announced yesterday:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d11e12bdf7.jpg
Nationally deaths falling...and quicker than in 2020. Which they should be as treatments have improved,


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...fd6629fb38.jpg
Regionally the Western Visayas region with the worst outcome here. These charts are slower to update but more accurate.

The DOH need to revise the regions to reflect recent changes in the geographical spread of the virus nationally.
Davao has the best health care in Mindanao so we need to look at other regions there:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...a0b4c9b422.jpg
CARAGA deaths increasing rapidly...

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...65564906f8.jpg
N Mindanao's also..

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...78b397b6f1.jpg
Zanboanga's too....but dropping lately


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0937980456.jpg
SOCCSKSARGEN


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2fc13b2863.jpg
BARMM's increased rapidly but lately doing better.

E Visayas has also had a recent increase in cases:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b48a2aec0a.jpg
E Visayas deaths increased rapidly....maintaining a constant level recently



https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5178f7aad0.jpg
Deaths noticeably greater in middle aged and senior males than women.


Latest vaccination progress:

Philippines 2 doses 2.25M. 3.9% of target achieved in over 3.5 months. Total: 9.6M
Indonesia 2 doses 13M. 4.8%.. Total 39M
Malaysia 2doses. 2M 6.2%. Total 7M

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Regional cases yesterday:

4A 886
NCR 770
W Visayas 623
Davao 551
C Luzon 551
E Visayas 405
C Visayas 349
Ilocos 341

Region 4A with 14.5% of all cases. The majority of regions with less cases except the CAR, which tripled cases to 96, CARAGA, Ilocos and 4A all added between 40 and 60 cases over the day before.

Top 6: 60.5%, down 4%

In the NCR 6 cities were up and 5 were down by moderate numbers.

Top 6: QC 143, Makati 98, Manila 95, Caloocan 83, Paranaque 51 and Las Pinas 50

Reported cases from all NCR bubble provinces fell to give:

Laguna 293, Cavite 158, Rizal 112 and Bulacan 106

The NCR bubble had 23.6% of all cases, down 1%.

The Calabarzon question: no problem yesterday. The provinces plus Lucena City added up to the regional number!

Also: Bataan 87, down . Batangas 159, up.
Pampanga and Pangasinan were both up by a few cases.
La Union 78
Quezon 117, up by nearly 100.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 43, down
Baguio 53, up
CDO 71, unchanged
Cebu 56, down, but still higher than a few weeks ago
Davao 301, down but only by 45
Gen San 26, down
IloIlo 96, down by 14
Tacloban 45, down
Zamboanga 45, up 16

Re: NCR llockdown
 

There were about 500 less cases reported yesterday. But 6 labs did not report. The DOH say that these labs have been reporting 2.5% of the cases recently. So on that basis there could have been about 100 more cases announced.. Reasonably up to date as the backlog included was 258. Positivity up slightly at 12.5% from 42.8k tests. A much lower 29.6k being prepared.

Recoveries 6.9k

Deaths 84 with 38 RDs.

57 recoveries became active.

Active cases at 52,209.

Severe 1,096, up 45 and Critical 731, down 5

NCR ICU 43%, down 2% (nationally 56%, down 1%).

Regional data: (300 and over)

4A 757
W Visayas 674
NCR 657
Davao 547
C Luzon 423
E Visayas 365
C Visayas 333
SOCCSK 333

4A top again with 13.5% of all cases. All but three regions had falls in reported cases. Though Davao fell by only 4 cases. The exceptions were MIMAROPA, up 91, SOCCSKSARGEN up 89 and W Visayas, up 51.

The top 6 regions at 61% of all cases, up 0.5%.

The same story in NCR cities with all but 3 either about the same or with less cases. The exceptions were Taguig, up 31, Muntinlupa, up 21 and Pasig, up 19.

Top 6: QC 111, Manila 90, Pasig 67, Muntinlupa 57, Makati 54 and Taguig 53.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...da1ec63b08.jpg
The Muntinlupa fall maybe reversing?


Provinces: Cavite reported 51 more cases. All of the other 3 NCR bubble provinces had less cases.

Laguna 307, Cavite 209, Rizal 119 and Bulacan 68

Elsewhere, provinces around the NCR all had less cases:

Bataan 46
Pampanga 89
Pangasinan 15
La Union 65

Batangas 110
Quezon 9 only (testing here falls greatly at weekends).

The statistical discrepancies with region 4A's numbers seem to have been simply a matter of error on at least two days as yesterday all the provinces plus Lucena City added up to the regional total.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 108, up 65
Baguio 33, down
CDO 75, up
Cebu 56, unchanged
Davao 300, down only 1
GenSan 91, up 65
IloIlo 46, down 50
Tacloban 46, up
Zamboanga 30, down

Quarantine levels up to mid July:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/29/...-2021-mecq-gcq

Getting more complicated. I would like to see a survey done on it but I think many people must now be confused about what they can and cannot do in their area. Especially as on top of these restrictions are those imposed by the local mayor. For example where we live alcohol sales are banned but a few kms down the road you can buy.

The NCR bubble area has been divided up into GCQ with some and GCQ with "heightened" restrictions.
Seems reasonable except for the fact that a few cities of the NCR are not sharing in the general fall in cases.
OCTA estimate the R number for the NCR has increased slightly from 0.71 to 0.8.

It also looks unfair to Cavite. Perhaps they did not want to separate out only Laguna for "heightened" restrictions?

The latest DPH cases charts for the NCR bubble areas:

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d12d57326d.jpg
NCR

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b20448e0a2.jpg
Bulacan


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b8c62a9f66.jpg
Rizal

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...93d6f3522f.jpg
Laguna


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...f0f145453f.jpg
Cavite

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Agree with you Raffin about it getting more complicated. The Philippines is an archipelago with over 7000 Islands and so therefore a potential for each island to have their own protocol. Take Negros for example. That is split into Occidental and Oriental. Yet within those provinces different protocols apply depending on which city you wish to visit. This makes travel a nightmare with different protocols. And those protocols are constantly changing. Shambles.

Regards

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes P11. Not being able to buy alcohol not much of a problem as needing to travel for something important.
I see a distinct lack of nationalism here and it is reflected in a desire for more local autonomy. The President is or perhaps until recently was a major proponent of federalism. But I think the pandemic has knocked that on the head. It wasn't too popular anyway but they were hoping to force it through.
Palawan recently voted 58 to 42% against splitting the island into 3 parts. Dividing up the smaller islands does not seem at all sensible But there's more examples in the Visayas and Mindoro.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases yesterday down by over 1k. Fourteen labs did not submit on time but reduced testing at the weekend the main cause. A dip in positivity to 10.7% from 32k tests. More at 34k on the way.

Recoveries 6.5k

28 recoveries went to Active.

Deaths 101 with 75 RDs.

Active cases 50,037

Severe 1,051, down 45 and Critical 751, up 20

NCR ICU at 43%, unchanged. Nationally 55%, down 1%.

Regional data: (300 and over)

Davao 723
4A 640
W Visayas 536
NCR 474
C Luzon 318
C Visayas 315
E Visayas 305

All except 3 regions reporting mostly many less cases. The main exception being Davao, which obviously went on a testing blitz...176 more than the day before to take first place with 16.1% of national cases. The CAR had 68 more. NCR down in 4th place.

Top 6 regions at 67.1% of all cases, up 6%.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...6d3f2af166.jpg
Davao region


In the NCR all except 3 regions were down substantially and the exceptions went up by only a few cases. Three reported single digits.

Top 6: QC 113, Manila 65, Taguig 51, Las Pinas 38, Makati 36 , Paranaque and Pasig both 30

Since the decision to apply different restrictions in areas of the NCR bubble I won't continue calculating the bubble's national share. The focus around the NCR is now mainly on Cavite and Laguna and also on some other provinces to the north and south of the NCR.

Cavite, 238, up, Laguna 107, down 200

Elsewhere:

Bataan 38, down
Bulacan 83, up
La Union 78, up
Pampanga 63, down
Pangasinan 96, up 81
Rizal 101, down
Batangas 92, down
Quezon 73, up 64

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 134, up 26
Baguio 45, up 12
CDO 46, down
Cebu 58
Davao 377, up 77
GSan 72, down
IloIlo 86, up 40
Tacloban 29, down
Zamboanga 27, down

Economic news: Philippine GDP Q1 down 4.2% (an improvement as Q4 2020 when it was down 8.3% !). Coupled with that inflation Q1 at 4.5%. Many people without work or with less work, facing higher prices and families only receiving small amounts of ayuda.

Stop press: CNN reports the US CDC saying delta variant now 1 in 4 cases nationwide.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Re: NCR llockdown
 

...or movements of the Abu Sayaf etc....agree.Gazza...and it may already be spreading in Mindanao. You can't rely on the very limited genome testing to check that but it may be like what happened in Pasay a few months ago where rapid case growth was most likely caused by the UK variant but the authorities never confirmed it.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

If you watch the latest Dr John he raises concerns about south asia that the world numbers are unlikely to reflect the rapid increases in cases simply due to the abysmal levels of testing in the region. If you don't look you don't find and the power that be sit back thinking all is roses.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yes, testing effort inadequate here in many areas given the positivity. The DOH not talking about regional positivity, but it must be high. Will look at some individual lab's positivity next. You can see it also in the large day to day variability. One day hundreds of positive cases for an area and the next day only two digits.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday a few more cases with 4,509 new cases, 6 labs late to submit. Backlog low at 450. Positivity back up a little to 11.3% from 35.9k cases. Ten thousand more in preparation.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 105 with 49 RDs.
Philippines 1.75% case fatality.

Active cases 48,649

Severe 1,070, up 29 and Critical 730, down 21

Regional data

4A 616
NCR 578
C Visayas 526
W Visayas 486
Davao 461
C Luzon 267

4A's total fell by 24 but it still led with 13.7% of all cases. The NCR came second with about 100 more. Central Visayas put on over 200 more cases than the day before to come third.
The Cagayan, Bicol and Zamboanga regions all added over 100 each.

Top 6: 65.1% of all cases, down 2%

Small changes up and down for the NCR cities with the exception of Makati, which reported 81 more than the day before:

Top 6: QC 118, Makati 117, Manila 55, Las Pinas 35, Pasig 33 , Muntinlupa and Paranaque both 31

For the provinces around Manila Laguna added more than 100 and Cavite had more than 100 less than the day before
Batangas added 33 more.

Bataan 44
Bulacan 85
La Union 51
Pampanga 61
Pangasinan 38
Rizal 87
Cavite 122
Laguna 238
Batangas 125
Quezon 25

Selected cities:

Bacolod 27, down 107
Baguio 83, up 38
CDO 43
Cebu 44, down
Davao 309, down 68
GenSan 79, up
IloIlo 145, up 59
Tacloban 21, down
Zamboanga 28, down

Bohol 95, down 32

Regional positivity:

High levels with some trending upwards, others constant.
One lab picked from each location.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2edf7bc1ae.jpg
Bacolod City

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b5d94af2a0.jpg
CARAGA

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...807576743e.jpg
Davao

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...2348fc4f24.jpg
E Visayas

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5f2073ef6c.jpg
Ilocos

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...248af89530.jpg
Negros Oriental


N Mindanao

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5ad25560c5.jpg
Negros Occidental

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...0616442a94.jpg
W Visayas

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b89218be7a.jpg
Zamboanga City

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...5f218cabff.jpg
Zamboaga del Sur

Bayanihan 2 funds:

A lot of unspent money was quickly disbursed as the deadline neared, but not clear to where.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...failure/story/

Indonesia:

Definitely with the worst covid situation in SE Asia. Worse with vaccines, but better with testing the Philippines crucially also seems to have been better at managing population movement. Helpful to the government here for defending their poor record.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/mu...e-in-indonesia

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday more than 1,500 cases added over the day before, 5,795 with 5 labs late. Small backlog of 85 included. Positivity 11.9% from 48k tests. Coming along a higher 51.2k tests.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...527fe52f7e.jpg
When national positivity was last just over 10% in 2020 testing was around 220k people a week. Now a little over 300k. So netter but now many LGUs are dealing with larger and more remote areas than the NCR and Cebu so they need to do more testing to find those places where infections are increasing.

Recoveries 2.9k the lowest since June 4

27 recoveries went to Active Cases.

Deaths 135 with 93 RDs. As said before lit looks likely these RDS are mostly delayed reporting from the more remote provinces away from Central Luzon.

Severe 1,083, up 13 and Critical 774, up 44.
NCR ICU 44%, up 2% (nationally 56%, up 1%)

Regional data:

W Visayas 865
NCR 662
Davao 634
4A 605
C Luzon 541
Ilocos 470

Then 6 regions in the 200s.

W Visayas with nearly 400 more and 15% of all cases. Davao in third palace added over 170 more. Ilocos in 6th place had 331 more over the day before. E Visayas added 89 to 252. Bicol added 76 to have 239.

Top 6 regions 65.2%, unchanged.

In the NCR 5 cities had substantially more cases than the day before. QC added 39 more, Paranaque 36.

QC 157, Makati 70, Paranaque 67, Manila 61, Caloocan 61, Taguig 45

In provinces around the NCR Laguna added 125 more over the day before. Cavite and Bulacan also added more. Bataan added 80 more. La Union 80 more.

Bataan 131
Bulacan 123
La Union 132
Ilocos Sur 162
Pampanga 94
Pangasinan 71
Cavite 163
Laguna 363
Rizal 78
Batangas 89
Quezon 9

Selected cities:

Bacolod 134, up 107
Baguio 48, up
CDO 71, up 28
Cebu 69, up 25
Davao 313, up
IloIlo 125, down
Tacloban 21
Zamboanga 25

Bohol 22, down 73

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/01/...vid19-doh-says

Always a rosy scenario from this DOH doctor.

Seems to be focusing on recent improvements in the NCR, contributor of most of the country's GDP, but less worried about the large populations elsewhere.

And what does she mean "low risk from covid' ? Low risk of becoming like India?

Yes, the infection is mainly concentrated in the Visayas and MIndanao regions, but others are not mentioned. Which from current DOH data are far from "low risk":

Central Visayas
Bicol
CARAGA
MIMAROPA
Ilocos

Testing should be higher as positivity figures show eg for the major testing lab in CARAGA:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c048b8c717.jpg
CDO

Covid situation improving in most parts of the Philippines?

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 400 more cases yesterday, four labs not reporting in time. Backlog included 317 cases. Positivity down a little at 11.4% on 51.5k cases. In preparation 50.7k results.

Recoveries again low at 2.2k
The lowest since April 17.

Deaths 177 with 103 RDs.

Active cases 55,482

Severe 1,110, up 27 and Critical 777, up 3
Note: Severe numbers up 4 days in a row.

NCR ICU 40%, down 4% and nationally 55%, down 1%

Regional data:

W Visayas 841
4A 681
NCR 652
C Visayas 554
Davao 545
C Luzon 478
Ilocos 386

6 regions in the 200s

W Visayas at 13.6% of national cases. C Visayas added 300 to the previous day's total.
Zamboanga added over 100 more.

Top 6 regions at 60.6%, down nearly 5%.

In the NCR small changes only.

Top 6: QC 138, Manila 87, Pasig 71, Taguig 61, Makati 52 and Paranaque 39

In the provinces around the NCR Pangasinan added 65 on the day before. Quezon 46. Batangas 27 more.
Laguna reported over 150 less.

Bataan 130
Batangas 116
Bulacan 117
Cavite 181
La Union 134
Laguna 208
Pampanga 78
Pangasinan 136
Quezon 55
Rizal 103

Selected cities

Bacolod 248, up 114
Baguio 104, up 56
CDO 66
Cebu 83
Davao 310
IloIlo 112
Tacloban 49, up 28
Zamboanga 24

Bohol 107, up 115

https://www.rappler.com/nation/octa-...es-july-2-2021

OCTA group focusing on rises in provincial cities.
Three of them here. City of San Fernando not listed by DOH so La Union province chart shown here.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e0f8eeba53.jpg
Baguio City

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...3373f38b0e.jpg
Cebu City

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...c02ce480de.jpg
Davao City

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8fe799ec5f.jpg
La Union province

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...lic/ar-AALGAnT

Most people won't do that. Better to ask vaccinators to show syringe. But adding to their burden. Especially asking to take a picture. Again, trying for 100% here. Scamming must be a very small number of cases. Human error might be a few more. Working hours should be better monitored.

Additionally, especially for those of you watching Dr John Campbell's videos, there is a risk of injecting in a blood vessel with the possibility of increased clotting.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 300 new cases more than the day before for July 3. with 5 labs late to report. Out of the 5,908 cases 528 were backlog. Positivity lower at 10.6% from 50.8k tests.

Recoveries 7.7k

Deaths 90, 46 of them were RDs.
Official death tally is now in excess of 25,000.
Case fatality rate 1.75%

19 recoveries became Active cases.

Active cases 53,665, down.

Severe 1.073, down 37 and Critical 751, down 26

ICU for NCR 40%, nationally 55%. Both unchanged.

Location data not currently available. Will update later.

Vaccination update John Hopkins).

Philippines: 2.7M fully (2.5% of pop; 4.7% of target pop). 11.0 M total
Indonesia 13.8M fully (5.1% of pop) 44.7M total
Malaysia 2,5M fully (7.7% of pop) 8.6M total
Thailand 2.9M fully (4.1% of pop) 10.2M total

The Philippines continues to lag neighbours with significant covid infection.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday's DOH data cont.

Tests coming along lower at 43.8k.

Regional data:

4A 933
NCR 689
W Visayas 638
Davao 575
C Luzon 557
C Visayas 407
Ilocos 342

4 regions in the 200s.

4A was top with over 250 more cases added over the day before. At 15.8% of the national total. NCR was up 37. Davao in 4th place added 30 more.
C Luzon at 5th added 79 more.
MIMAROPA with 167 cases added 26 more.

Top 6: 64.3%, nearly 4% more.

In the NCR there were no dramatic changes. Pasig added 27 more. QC 24, Manila 23 more.

QC 162, Manila 110, Taguig 72, Pasig 44, Makati 44, Las Pinas 34

In the provinces around the NCR the most notable changes were Laguna adding 133 more and Cavite reporting over 100 more cases.

Bataan 60, down 70
Batangas 126
Bulacan 97
Cavite 287
La Union 80, down 54
Laguna 341
Pampanga 75
Pangasinan 107
Quezon 65
Rizal 93

Selected Cities:

Bacolod 30
Baguio 60
CDO 42
Cebu 58
Davao 309, down 1
Gen San 68
IloIlo 109, down 3
Tacloban 28
Zamboanga 20

Bohol 147, up 40

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday new cases increased by only 58 from a moderately high testing of 44k individuals. Just one lab late to submit. So 5,966 with 906 of them a backlog. Positivity up again at 11.5%.

Recoveries 7k.
130 recoveries were returned to Active.

Deaths 86, 27 of them RDs.

Active cases at 52,708.
ABS-CBN have produced a useful chart:

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...bebaf10bbf.jpg
Latest figures looking flat...

In primary hospitals: Severe cases 1,107, up 34 and Critical 738, down 13

NCR ICU 46%, national 57%
A 6% increase from the day before.

Location data again late. Wil update later.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=2

The OCTA group trying not to look too gloomy about the situation but with testing seemingly capped at around 50k they must know the DOH cannot find all the extra cases quickly enough that the positivity rates suggest are out there. They are also following the DOH in downplaying other areas of concern nearer to the old NCR epicentre and in N Luzon.

Flat lining at a moderately high level has often been the base for another wave of infection in other countries.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Location data for July 4:

Tests coming along 44k again.

Regional data:

4A 823
W Visayas 792
NCR 785
Davao 551
C Luzon 449
E Visayas 377
N Mindanao 308

3 regions in the 200s

Even with 110 less cases 4A came top with 13.8% of all cases. W Visayas added 154 to gain second place. NCR added nearly 100 to come third. E Visayas gained 100 and N Mindanao 90 over the day before.

Top 6 regions at 63.3%, down 1%.

In the NCR 9 cities each added a moderate number of cases but Malabon added 38 more.

QC 171, Manila 100, Makati 57, Taguig 57, Caloocan 55, Las Pinas 48, Malabon 48

In the provinces Bulacan added 61 more, Batangas 50 more, Pampanga 35 more.

Bataan 34
Batangas 176
Bulacan 158
Cavite 210, 77 less
La Union 85
Laguna 264, 77 less
Pampanga 110
Pangasinan 100
Quezon 69
Rizal 81

Selected cities:

Bacolod 173, up 143
Baguio 58
CDO 90, up 48
Cebu 87, up 29
Davao 222, down 87
GenSan 62
IloIlo 113, up 4
Tacloban 44, up 16
Zamboanga 28, up 8

Bohol 72, down 75

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Getting on for 600 less new cases yesterday at 5,392. Ten labs were late in submitting and the DOH estimate a likely extra 40 cases from them. A backlog of 586 results included. Positivity 11.3% out of 47.6k tests. Only 31.2k expected next due to the weekend effect.

Recoveries 6.2k

43 deaths with 20 of them RDs.

Severe 1,084, down 23 and Critical 774, up 36.

NCR ICU 42%, up 4% nationally 56%, down 1%

Regional data

4A 838
NCR 630
Davao 505
W Visayas 474
Ilocos 473
C Luzon 450
C Visayas 330

3 regions in the 200s

4A top again with 15.5% of all cases.
Notable increases in Ilocos, up 194, the CAR up 110 to 195 and Cagayan, up 54 to 204.
Nine regions were down.

Top 6: 62.5%, down

In the NCR 12 cities had less cases. Ten had between 20 and 40 cases.
Valenzuala added 15, Navotas 13 and Muntinlupa 8.

QC 123, Manila 86, Taguig 48, Muntinlupa 43

In the provinces Bataan added 82, La Union 62, Laguna 51, Pampanga 21 cases.

Bataan 116
Batangas 151
Bulacan 87
Cavite 241
La Union 147
Laguna 315
Pampanga 73
Pangasinan 121
Quezon 33
Rizal 88

Selected cities:

Bacolod 35, down
Baguio 82, up 24
CDO 73, down
Cebu 71, down
Davao 287, up 65
GenSan 70, up
IloIlo 96, down
Tacloban 32, down
Zamboanga 27

Bohol 31, down

Latest news on variants here:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/05/...-variant-in-ph

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The lowest total for 2 weeks yesterday, although it was from the weekend testing of 31.5k individuals. 4,114 positives with 9 labs not reporting. Backlog of 803 included. Positivity lower at 10.5%. Tests on the way at 31.9k.

Recoveries 6.1k

Deaths 104 with 63 RDs.

Active cases 49,613, down by nearly 2k

Severe 1,092, up 8 and Critical 744, down 30

NCR ICU 44%, up 2% and nationally 57%, up 1%

Regional data:

4A 582
W Visayas 510
NCR 417
Davao 410
C Luzon 378
C Visayas 317

3 regions in the 200s

Top 6 regions: 63.5% of all cases, up 1%.

All had lower totals except W Visayas, up 36, SOCCSKSARGEN, up 34 to 295 and N Mindanao, up 32 to 247.

Region 4A again top and had 14.1% of all cases.

In the NCR all cities except Caloocan and Makati had less cases. They only had 6 and 1 more respectively.

QC 109, Manila 59, Makati 37, Caloocan 36

In the provinces around the NCR all except Pampanga, Rizal and Quezon had less cases.

Bataan 27
Batangas 114
Bulacan 86
Cavite 157
La Union 65
Laguna 142
Pampanga 74, up 1
Pangasinan 72
Quezon 48, up 15
Rizal 104, up 16

Selected cities

Bacolod 69, up 34
Baguio 84, up
CDO 45, down
Cebu 73, up
Davao 143, down
GenSan 103, up 33
IloIlo 43, down

Bohol 111, up 80

A ticking off for the DOH from the WHO representative. The public can certainly get the wrong impression from the DOH "low risk" statement the more so since the DOH do not announce locational statistics on a daily basis and make it difficult to get them.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/06/...k-for-covid-19

Re: NCR llockdown
 

When the Delta variant gets into the Philippines, and it will, there is going to be a tsunami of cases, the UK is predicting 100k+ case a day in the next couple of weeks mainly amongst the unvaccinated and that only at about 25% of the population. The mind boggles at what it could do with 85-90% unvaccinated.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

This priest/scientist, part of the OCTA group, disagrees. He's come out with strange ideas before. Looking only at the NCR if all those presently on one dose get their second there will only be about 5M with two, mostly the less effective Sinovac too. Not enough. Many more getting two doses will take some time with likely frequent supply difficulties and diversion of vaccines to the VIsayas and Mindanao:

https://www.philstar.com/nation/2021...ficient-supply


So way short of protecting the NCR population from the fast spreading delta or other similar variants if they get a hold, especially in cities with a lower percentage vaccinated. Seniors have been prioritized and in the NCR that involves about 0.4M by now fully vaccinated, so the potential for spread is that much greater through the younger population.

The rest of the country's regions are way behind the NCR, 4A and Central Luzon with vaccinations and will be more vulnerable.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday's total 175 more than the day before at 4,284, four labs late to submit. Backlog of 282 included. Positivity back up at 11.3% from 35.5k tests. A higher 49.2K tests coming along.

Recoveries 6.4k

Deaths 164 with 123 RDs.
Case fatality rate up to 1.76%

Active cases 47,519 ,down over 2k

Severe 1,093, up 1 and Critical 760, up 16

NCR ICU 45%, up 1%. Nationally 57%, unchanged

Regional data:

4A 716
W Visayas 570
Davao 510
NCR 472
SOCCSK 322
C Luzon 284
Ilocos 245
C Visayas 209

Region 4A top with 134 more and at 16.7% of all cases. W Visayas 60 more. Davao had 100 more.
Bicol added about 100 more at 154. Zamboanga Pen 82 to 145. Cagayan 79 to 136.

Top 6: 67.0%, up 6.5%

The NCR cities added 55 cases. Six cities went significantly up, 3 were down.
Manila added 21 more , Paranaque 19 and Mandaluyong 18.

QC 111, Manila 80, Paranaque 46, Las Pinas 30

In the provinces Cavite added 84 more, Laguna 57. Bataan 64 .

Bataan 91, up
Batangas 90, down
Bulacan 62, up
Cavite 241, up
La Union 15, down
Pampanga 47, down
Pangasinan 62, down
Quezon 61, up
Rizal 90, down

Selected cities:

Bacolod 12, up 53
Baguio 5, down
CDO 41
Cebu 41, down
Davao 244, up 100
GenSan 61, down
IloIlo 136, up 96

Bohol 62, down

Variants:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Duque says variants "may explain" recent surges in Bohol and Negros Oriental. But we know the Philippines has very limited ability to genome test so these findings he presented to the President won't be giving the true picture.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...d0b4ec52e9.jpg
Geometric case growth projected in the UK over the next few weeks..

Although not so relevant to the Philippines Dr John explaining (with some incredulity) a change in UK strategy in the face of the delta variant and the calculated risks (or gamble) it is taking.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

The result of nearly 50k tests was about 1,200 more positive cases announced yesterday. Positivity sticking at 11.3%. Backlog of only 158 included. A small drop to 48.3k tests in preparation.

Recoveries 3.9k

Deaths at 191 (the highest since June 11) with 152 of them the infamous (to a select few only!) RDs.

Interesting to look at the latest DOH deaths chart and one from 10 days ago beneath it:

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...e7c1ab6396.jpg

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b16ed5eed6.jpg

In 10 days discernable increases shown by the bars over the last few weeks as these RDs are allocated to their date of occurrence. Although still a falling trend.

Active cases up to 49k with Severe 1,079, down 14 and Critical 736, down 24.
In major hospitals only. These numbers not affected much by the RDs, who are mostly not dying there.

NCR ICU at 43%, down 2% (nationally 57%)

Regional data:

NCR 748
W Visayas 701
4A 646
C Luzon 481
C Visayas 352
Davao 334
Cagayan 331
N Mindanao 328
Ilocos 302

The NCR returning to first position with about 300 more cases after some time lower in the table. It had 14.2% of all cases.I wonder if staff in the NCR LGUs, released from vaccination duties due to the lack of supply, have been reallocated to testing?

W Visayas was second with about 130 more. C Luzon had about 200 more cases.
C Visayas and N Mindanao both had about 150 more cases.
E Visayas had more than 100 more cases.

The top 6 regions had 60% of cases, down 7% on the day before.

In the NCR Las Pinas stood out heading QC's total with 80 more cases than the day before.
Makati had 58 more, Pasig 55 more and Taguig 42 more cases.
In all 6 cities reported significantly more cases.

Las Pinas 110, QC 100, Manila 86, Makati 84, Taguig 62, Caloocan 50

Provincially around the NCR Batangas added 63 cases to the day before's total.
The other provinces with moderate increases in cases were Bulacan, La Union, Laguna and Pampanga.

Bataan 93
Batangas 153
Bulacan 156
Cavite 119
La Union 59
Laguna 260
Pampanga 105
Pangasinan 67
Quezon 19
Rizal 90

Selected cities:

Bacolod 21, down
Baguio 47, up
CDO 104, up 63
Cebu 84, up
Davao 185, down
GenSan 68, up
IloIlo 125, down

Bohol 73, up

Long covid:

Not something they are worried about here much with all that's going on in their battle against covid, but maybe they should be given the third paragraph on this screenshot of a recent video from Dr John:

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...9f7788b0d0.jpg

Re: NCR llockdown
 

As there's no social care to speak of here why would tbey worry about long covid, not their problem.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

They want to extend health care here and this will just add to the demand. If as likely many of these people are not properly treated in primary hospitals the worst cases could end up in other government facilities. Link with M.E. Significant implications for the labour force. See Thursday's Dr John update.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

New cases for July 9 were up 400 or so, 5 labs late to submit. Small backlog included of 381. Positivity still high at 11.0%
Recoveries down at 3.0k. Tests coming along slightly down on yesterday's 50.6k at 49.7k.

Deaths lower at 70, 34 RDs.
Severe patients 1,142, up 63 and Critical 779, up 42

NCR ICU 41%, down 2% (nationally 57% unchanged)

28 recoveries became active.

Active cases up to 51,902

Regional data:

NCR 776
4A 704
W Visayas 696
C Luzon 588
Davao 572
Ilocos 479
C Visayas 419

NCR was again top with 13.2% of all cases.
4A added 58 to come second.
C Luzon added about 100 to come fourth.
Davao with more than 200 more to come fifth. Ilocos had nearly 200 more to make sixth place.

No region in the 300s.
3 in the 200s.

Top 6: 64.9% of all cases, up 5%

In the NCR 7 cities were up and 5 down. Small changes generally, though QC added 81.
But the numbers do not indicate the virus is under control there.

QC 181, Pasig 75, Manila 70, Taguig 66, Makati 61, Muntinlupa 48

For the provinces Cavite added 70 more. La Union about 100.

Bataan 64
Batangas 68
Bulacan 100
Cavite 189
La Union 163
Laguna 269
Pampanga 141
Pangasinan 90
Quezon 41
Rizal 94

Selected cities:

Bacolod 101, up 80
Baguio 66, up
CDO 99
Cebu 74
Davao 261, up 76
GenSan 65
IloIlo 130

Bohol 138, up 65

Quarantine news:

Kids out in Manila

Kids 5 and over allowed out (except in Malls) in all GCQ and MGCQ areas, except in Cavite and Laguna, which are subject to heightened restrictions. And maybe elsewhere depending on the Mayor.
Those of you who regularly look at Dr John's videos will know he would be appalled at the effect this restriction has had on their vitamin D levels.

Population statistics:

The PSA is asking us to believe these Census numbers, collected last year though the pandemic, 2015 Census in brackets.
The QC result is particularly unbelievable as it is home to many unregistered people, who were most affected by the pandemic.
People left the NCR in droves for the provinces. Were they even counted there?

QC 2.96M (2.94M)
City of Manila 1.85M (1.78M)
Caloocan 1.7M (1.58M)

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Yesterday's total was about 200 less, 3 labs late to submit. Backlog only 98. Again 11% were positive out of 50.7k individuals, a number of tests nearly equal to the day before's.. On the way 45.2k tests.

Recoveries 7.6k
Deaths 96, 42 RDs.

Active cases were down nearly 2k to 49,968

Severe 1,199, up 57 and Critical 750, down 29.

NCR ICU 40%, down 1% Nationally 55%, down 2%.

Regional data:

W Visayas 951
NCR 724
4A 698
Davao 576
C Visayas 511
Ilocos 426
C Luzon 401

No 300s
2 200s

A different looking table yesterday. W Visayas was top with over 250 more cases and 16.8% of the national total.
Not many other major changes upwards except for SOCCSKSARGEN adding 123 more and C Visayas 92 more.
Major downward changes; C Luzon fell by 187, N Mindanao by 160 and Bicol by 119.

Top 6 regions: 68.5% of all cases, up 3,6%

Few significant upward changes in the provincial numbers. Except that Pangasinan added 47 more.
Pampanga fell by 47 and Cavite by 37.

Bataan 68
Batangas 100
Bulacan 95
Cavite 142
La Union 114
Laguna 259
Pampanga 94
Pangasinan 137
Quezon 68
Rizal 117

Selected cities:

Bacolod 162, up 61
Baguio 44, down 22
CDO 55, down 44
Cebu 92, up 18
Davao 306, up 45
GenSan 42, down 23
IloIlo 136

Bohol 161, up 23

Pushback from the OCTA group against the DOH's "low risk" statement:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/23/...s-enforced-doh

Their assessment: Low to Moderate risk with some high risk areas.
Correction: the national positivity rate is not below 5%. It is above 10%.

Latest OCTA look at high risk cities.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ad56fe4fcb.jpg

Calamba is in Laguna, on the SLEX.
Butuan is in the Caraga Region.
Tagum City is in Davao del Norte province.


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...b6709180d4.jpg
Tagum City not available separately. This is for Davao del Norte province.

Latest Philippines international standing: (total cases new cases, then total deaths)

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ddd21c031b.jpg

Ordered by new cases giving a higher position.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...23d69f98ff.jpg
Note: Myanmar figure likely much higher.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

About 250 more cases yesterday from about 3.7k less tests. So positivity up a little to 11.4%. Again 3 labs late in submitting. A 550 backlog of results was included. Tests in preparation down a little at 45.2k.

Recoveries 6.1k.

Deaths105 and 53 of them RDs.

A small drop in Active Cases to 49,701.

Severe 1,193, down 4 and Critical 746, down 4

NCR ICU 40%, unchanged. Nationally 56%, up 1%.

Location data not yet put up. Will update later.

Central Visayas:

Some details from the local DOH on the rise in infections there.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/centr...third-wave-doh

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...ca14580231.jpg
Central Visayas

UK lifting of restrictions:

Although it is plain the UK government is going ahead with a general lifting of restrictions in a week's time a large number of scientists and health specialists are vey unhappy at the de facto herd immunity policy implied. a policy change at the same time as the Indian variant is behind a rapid increase in cases. An interesting conference was held by them (You tube link below).

The Philippines is aiming for a weak herd immunity in one area of the country by November by vaccination but that is slow and uncertain. So with a steady official daily tally of cases in the region of 4 -5,000, testing too low to find the many more in parts of the country with positivity over 20%, this country is also effectively going towards a weak herd immunity another way by not being able to vaccinate quickly enough. In the UK one of the main objections to the change in policy is the strain on the NHS from a soon expected 100,000 new infections a day, here there are much lower numbers and much less health service to strain. But allowing the virus to spread here will cause more problems for what there is and for the affected people, especially in poorer areas. Not a disaster unless the Indian variant or similar takes hold over the next 6 months, but it means a likely continuation of the currently poor situation well into next year.

Re: NCR llockdown
 

Regional data yesterday (300 and over):

4A 777
W Visayas 707
NCR 623
C Luzon 615
C Visayas 603
Davao 510
Ilocos 350

No 400s, 4 200s

4A top with 13.1% of all cases.
C Luzon up 214
C Visayas up 92, Davao 66
Cagayan and Bicol both up 134

Top 6: 64.8%, down 3.7%

For NCR cities:

No big changes.

QC 112, Manila 74, Pasig 71, Makati 73, Taguig 51, Las Pinas 46

Provincially:

Bataan up 216
Cavite up 133

Bataan 284
Batangas 120
Bulacan 83
Cavite 275
La Union 110
Laguna 219
Pampanga 106
Pangasinan 102
Quezon 37
Rizal 107

Selected cities:

Bacolod 79, down
Baguio 79, up
CDO 62, up
Cebu 114, up 22
Davao 216, down
GenSan 60, up
IloIlo 98, down

Bohol 190, up 29