2016 Election
Nov 6th 2016, 2:53 am
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Posts: 8,106
Re: 2016 Election
Yes I've seen a lot of criticism of Nate's analysis from competing pollsters and analysts. He has certainly been more conservative perhaps he felt burned by not quite hitting Trump in the primary. He is in line with betting markets though.
The other thing I've seen concerns the Latino/Hispanic vote. Big suggestion that they are not being polled accurately. Traditionally they don't vote as much but this time are highly motivated to do so. Evidence so far in early voting is interesting.
The other thing I've seen concerns the Latino/Hispanic vote. Big suggestion that they are not being polled accurately. Traditionally they don't vote as much but this time are highly motivated to do so. Evidence so far in early voting is interesting.
Nov 6th 2016, 2:56 am
Return of bouncing girl!
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Re: 2016 Election
Somewhat like those who chose to believe that everybody's problem with Trump's use of the term 'grab them by the pussy" was the language he used, and we're all hypocrites because we don't have a problem with Amy Schumer 
Nov 6th 2016, 3:03 am
WTF?
Joined: Aug 2003
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Posts: 79,449
Re: 2016 Election
Yeah. It's getting pretty tiresome. If Trump was a decent person who used raunchy humor to make his living, I'd have nothing say about it. He is, however, an indecent person who uses his position to terrify and hurt people and now he's one election away from being the most powerful person in the country.
Nov 6th 2016, 3:11 am
Deep in the woods of CT
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 7,017
Re: 2016 Election
There are some excellent opinion columns in the NYT today. Here are a couple:
Frank Bruni: Why this election terrifies me
Nicholas Kristof: Reasons to say "I'm with her"
Frank Bruni: Why this election terrifies me
Nicholas Kristof: Reasons to say "I'm with her"
Last edited by Nutmegger; Nov 6th 2016 at 3:14 am.
Nov 6th 2016, 3:15 am
WTF?
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Re: 2016 Election
So, fellow posters, what do y'all think is going to happen in the election - regardless of your personal preferences? We have only a few days to go (!!! at last !!!). It seems rather pointless to be posting what we personally think the virtues and drawbacks are of either candidate at this point, but there's still mileage in the analysis / prediction process. I sure hope Leslie doesn't lose her internet access over the next few days as she knows the process better than anyone.
I'm not seeing any devastating blows to Clinton, nor am I seeing any new revelations about Trump (though we have a couple of days ...). The 538 site has shown a significant drop in Clinton's lead, but she's still ahead 64/36%. They are showing Nevada, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio all voting Republican at this point, but Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado are all still Democrat.
As of now, Hilary is showing 291 Electoral Votes to Trump's 246, and the popular vote breakdown is 48/45.
I'm reading that Hillary's ground game is going to be the key now; she's enlisting the heavy hitters to get out the vote.
On a less encouraging note, 538 is showing the Dem's chances of getting control of the senate at only 50.2% (down from 68% on Nov 2). Nevada and New Hampshire are hanging by a thread on the Dem side; without those, the Senate stays R.
ETA - just saw this article - looks like HuffPo has Hillary a near certainty (98%) and is criticising Nate Silver's 538 approach. Interesting.
I'm not seeing any devastating blows to Clinton, nor am I seeing any new revelations about Trump (though we have a couple of days ...). The 538 site has shown a significant drop in Clinton's lead, but she's still ahead 64/36%. They are showing Nevada, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio all voting Republican at this point, but Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Colorado are all still Democrat.
As of now, Hilary is showing 291 Electoral Votes to Trump's 246, and the popular vote breakdown is 48/45.
I'm reading that Hillary's ground game is going to be the key now; she's enlisting the heavy hitters to get out the vote.
On a less encouraging note, 538 is showing the Dem's chances of getting control of the senate at only 50.2% (down from 68% on Nov 2). Nevada and New Hampshire are hanging by a thread on the Dem side; without those, the Senate stays R.
ETA - just saw this article - looks like HuffPo has Hillary a near certainty (98%) and is criticising Nate Silver's 538 approach. Interesting.
Last edited by Leslie; Nov 6th 2016 at 3:18 am.
Nov 6th 2016, 3:24 am
Deep in the woods of CT
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 7,017
Re: 2016 Election
Intellectually I understand that Clinton should win. Emotionally I am still completely insecure about whether America will do the right thing. I won't rest easy until this is over. I am hopeful that soon the depressing and ominous pall that's been over my head will finally be lifted. A small part of my psyche is steeling itself for horrible disappointment, ongoing grief, depression, and even despair at the prospect of the unthinkable.
"What ideally occurs during an election is that some consensus emerges or is forged. It’s not just a candidate who wins; it’s an argument, a vision. At least that’s the goal.
"But I can’t identify a single issue like that, domestic or foreign, in 2016, because no campaign in my adult lifetime has turned so little on policy and so much on character."
Nov 6th 2016, 3:31 am
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Posts: 8,106
Re: 2016 Election
There are some excellent opinion columns in the NYT today. Here are a couple:
Frank Bruni: Why this election terrifies me
Nicholas Kristof: Reasons to say "I'm with her"
Frank Bruni: Why this election terrifies me
Nicholas Kristof: Reasons to say "I'm with her"
I can't remember where it was, probably twitter, where someone suggested that whoever wins this time the next election will be even worse.
We can either keep taking the low path or we can go high. Hopefully both sides will draw the correct lessons, GOP especially.
Nov 6th 2016, 4:00 am
WTF?
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: Homeostasis
Posts: 79,449
Re: 2016 Election
There are some excellent opinion columns in the NYT today. Here are a couple:
Frank Bruni: Why this election terrifies me
Nicholas Kristof: Reasons to say "I'm with her"
Frank Bruni: Why this election terrifies me
Nicholas Kristof: Reasons to say "I'm with her"
Last edited by Leslie; Nov 6th 2016 at 4:14 am.
Nov 6th 2016, 4:15 am
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Re: 2016 Election
I am actually losing sleep over this election now. Awake for hours wondering how the hell we came this...banana republic style...with a supposedly non political agency , FBI , playing politics....a significant segment of the populace openly embracing racism and hatred of minorities and a candidate who encourages and relishes in it. I agree with Bruni. Either way this election goes..the country is in for a shitstorm of disfunction and hatred. The only hope is an eventual physical as opposed to idealogical splintering of the Republican party. As long as the wingnuts have a seat at the Republican table..we are screwed.
Nov 6th 2016, 4:18 am
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Re: 2016 Election
Anyone who disagrees is clearly too partizan to be objective. Worst nominees in history by a country mile.
Last edited by BritishGuy36; Nov 6th 2016 at 4:23 am.
Nov 6th 2016, 4:31 am
WTF?
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Re: 2016 Election
There is no mechanism by which america can "do the right thing" (start again with different nominees). Neither of these persons should be anywhere near a run for the whitehouse.
Anyone who disagrees is clearly too partizan to be objective. Worst nominees in history by a country mile.
Anyone who disagrees is clearly too partizan to be objective. Worst nominees in history by a country mile.
Donald Trump is unfit. Knowing that doesn't make me partisan. It makes me a person with properly functioning eyes and ears. Hillary is imminently more qualified and more stable than Trump. My opinions are based on my observations and YMMV. Abstaining is also a choice.
Last edited by Leslie; Nov 6th 2016 at 5:00 am.
Nov 6th 2016, 4:35 am
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Re: 2016 Election
Yes I've seen a lot of criticism of Nate's analysis from competing pollsters and analysts. He has certainly been more conservative perhaps he felt burned by not quite hitting Trump in the primary. He is in line with betting markets though.
The other thing I've seen concerns the Latino/Hispanic vote. Big suggestion that they are not being polled accurately. Traditionally they don't vote as much but this time are highly motivated to do so. Evidence so far in early voting is interesting.
The other thing I've seen concerns the Latino/Hispanic vote. Big suggestion that they are not being polled accurately. Traditionally they don't vote as much but this time are highly motivated to do so. Evidence so far in early voting is interesting.
This brings back into focus the whole absurdity, in my mind, of using telephone calls as the basis for polling (not that I can suggest a better approach; I just find the notion ridiculous). I personally still have a landline, purely for emergency purposes (I fear the cellular networks will be overloaded in times of disaster - I live in earthquake country). I'm the only person I know that still has one. But I never, ever, ever answer it when it rings; I screen all calls and just play back messages. So this brings into question, who exactly are these people answering their phones and talking to pollsters? And how can they possibly be considered representative of the voting public overall?
As I said, I don't know of a better way. But it does make we worry that the polls can't possibly be accurate. I guess, as a democrat, I should be somewhat happy, given my assumption that the people with landlines are probably old, white voters who would typically vote Trump ...
Nov 6th 2016, 4:35 am
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Posts: 27,078
Re: 2016 Election
I found SNL's final Trump/Hillary skit before the election to be well worth another watch. Pretty much sums up the medias failure to hold Trumps feet to the fire while devoting an inordinate amount of coverage to the email crap.
Last edited by dakota44; Nov 6th 2016 at 4:41 am.
Nov 6th 2016, 4:49 am
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Re: 2016 Election
