2016 Election
#7066
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ump/?tid=sm_tw
#7067
Bloody Yank









Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,186
From: USA! USA!











If you start with the 2012 map and then start considering the states that have a real chance of being lost to the GOP, then it makes a Dem victory seems almost certain.
Gore's loss of Florida in 2000 doomed his campaign. Today, the Dems could lose Florida and Ohio, and still win. Now that Nevada, Colorado and Virginia can be won by Democrats and New Mexico is more dependably blue than it once was, the game has changed dramatically. (The GOP gets the benefit of Missouri going from swing to red state, but that isn't enough to make a difference.)
Presuming Trump is the nominee, his best strategy would be to attempt to use his populist message to win the blue Rust Belt states. But I doubt that this would ultimately work.
Gore's loss of Florida in 2000 doomed his campaign. Today, the Dems could lose Florida and Ohio, and still win. Now that Nevada, Colorado and Virginia can be won by Democrats and New Mexico is more dependably blue than it once was, the game has changed dramatically. (The GOP gets the benefit of Missouri going from swing to red state, but that isn't enough to make a difference.)
Presuming Trump is the nominee, his best strategy would be to attempt to use his populist message to win the blue Rust Belt states. But I doubt that this would ultimately work.
Last edited by RoadWarriorFromLP; May 4th 2016 at 3:40 am.
#7068
#7071
Thinking about it some more. I can see this argument for a "Republican" third party candidate:
You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.
I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.
I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
#7072
Lost in BE Cyberspace










Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 13,212
From: San Francisco











Well, duh, I wouldn't know, I don't watch unfunny Brit comedians. There was enough of them on TV when I lived in the UK
I would suggest John Oliver's joke is lost on a lot of those who call Trump that
I would also reiterate my question, would the anti Trump brigade be casually calling him by his slave name if he were African American? The answer is obviously know which highlights hypocrisy on a laughable scale
I would suggest John Oliver's joke is lost on a lot of those who call Trump that
I would also reiterate my question, would the anti Trump brigade be casually calling him by his slave name if he were African American? The answer is obviously know which highlights hypocrisy on a laughable scale
#7075
Bloody Yank









Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,186
From: USA! USA!











Thinking about it some more. I can see this argument for a "Republican" third party candidate:
You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.
I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.
I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
#7076
This will probably turn out to be a tragedy of the commons. Most individual Republican politicians won't take a firm stand against Trump because it could hurt them personally in the short run, even if it would aid the party in the long run. There will certainly be some conservative pundits and former policy makers who do, but they aren't trying to get elected.
Difficult one.
Oh, hang on, it's politicians we are talking about. My mistake.
#7077
Return of bouncing girl!









Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 4,931
From: The Fourth Reich











Thinking about it some more. I can see this argument for a "Republican" third party candidate:
You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.
I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.
I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
Michael Bloomberg wrote a thought provoking article on why he won't run as a 3rd party candidate. If the popular vote is split and no-one wins the 270 required electoral college votes, congress decides the next president: The Risk I Will Not Take - Bloomberg View
#7078
So we end up with the first woman President or another loony President. A lot of people here vote for the party no matter who is running and there is a lot of sexism in business and politics.
This may be a very interesting 6 months.
This may be a very interesting 6 months.
#7079
There have been a lot of life long Republicans who are saying they will vote for Clinton now. They seem aware that a Trump presidency will put a nail in the coffin of the party. At least with a loss they might be able to brebuild without all the nut jobs. Doubt it, but you never know. The party could split in two.
#7080
Lost in BE Cyberspace










Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 13,212
From: San Francisco











There have been a lot of life long Republicans who are saying they will vote for Clinton now. They seem aware that a Trump presidency will put a nail in the coffin of the party. At least with a loss they might be able to brebuild without all the nut jobs. Doubt it, but you never know. The party could split in two.






