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Old May 4th 2016 | 3:22 am
  #7066  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP
I can't see a scenario in which the Democrats get fewer than 270 electoral votes. The issue at this point is the degree of the GOP's defeat, not whether it happens.
True, and ultimately whether it was Trump or Cruz or anyone else, they really have little chance of the Presidency anyway.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ump/?tid=sm_tw
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 3:38 am
  #7067  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

If you start with the 2012 map and then start considering the states that have a real chance of being lost to the GOP, then it makes a Dem victory seems almost certain.

Gore's loss of Florida in 2000 doomed his campaign. Today, the Dems could lose Florida and Ohio, and still win. Now that Nevada, Colorado and Virginia can be won by Democrats and New Mexico is more dependably blue than it once was, the game has changed dramatically. (The GOP gets the benefit of Missouri going from swing to red state, but that isn't enough to make a difference.)

Presuming Trump is the nominee, his best strategy would be to attempt to use his populist message to win the blue Rust Belt states. But I doubt that this would ultimately work.

Last edited by RoadWarriorFromLP; May 4th 2016 at 3:40 am.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:05 am
  #7068  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

CNN...Kasich is out.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:07 am
  #7069  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Jerseygirl
CNN...Kasich is out.
Wow, had no clue he was that way inclined.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:12 am
  #7070  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by Boiler
Wow, had no clue he was that way inclined.


It's going to be a very interesting 6 months.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:23 am
  #7071  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Thinking about it some more. I can see this argument for a "Republican" third party candidate:

You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.

I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:28 am
  #7072  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by themadpooper
Well, duh, I wouldn't know, I don't watch unfunny Brit comedians. There was enough of them on TV when I lived in the UK

I would suggest John Oliver's joke is lost on a lot of those who call Trump that

I would also reiterate my question, would the anti Trump brigade be casually calling him by his slave name if he were African American? The answer is obviously know which highlights hypocrisy on a laughable scale
I see. So you admit you didn't know that Oliver was raising Trump by his own racist petard but are willing to paint those that now use the name "Drumpf" as racist. Got it.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:29 am
  #7073  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Is it November yet?
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:31 am
  #7074  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by sir_eccles
Is it November yet?
Well the good news is, if Trump wins, then this is last election we'll have to worry about.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 4:53 am
  #7075  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by zargof
Thinking about it some more. I can see this argument for a "Republican" third party candidate:

You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.

I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
This will probably turn out to be a tragedy of the commons. Most individual Republican politicians won't take a firm stand against Trump because it could hurt them personally in the short run, even if it would aid the party in the long run. There will certainly be some conservative pundits and former policy makers who do, but they aren't trying to get elected.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 5:21 am
  #7076  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by RoadWarriorFromLP
This will probably turn out to be a tragedy of the commons. Most individual Republican politicians won't take a firm stand against Trump because it could hurt them personally in the short run, even if it would aid the party in the long run. There will certainly be some conservative pundits and former policy makers who do, but they aren't trying to get elected.
Let's see....what's best for the individual versus what's best for the country?

Difficult one.

Oh, hang on, it's politicians we are talking about. My mistake.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 5:41 am
  #7077  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by zargof
Thinking about it some more. I can see this argument for a "Republican" third party candidate:

You accept the Presidency is lost. What about the Senate and the House? With Trump as the nominee what happens to Republicans who won't vote for Trump? How many of them are just going to stay at home? What does that do the down ticket candidates? If you give them a reason to turn up to the polls maybe you can do some damage limitation and not give the Dems a clean sweep.

I've no idea on the numbers and whether Republicans will just suck it up and vote Trump in the end anyway. But I'd say it's a fair argument.
This is a really interesting point that I hadn't considered.

Michael Bloomberg wrote a thought provoking article on why he won't run as a 3rd party candidate. If the popular vote is split and no-one wins the 270 required electoral college votes, congress decides the next president: The Risk I Will Not Take - Bloomberg View
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 8:36 am
  #7078  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

So we end up with the first woman President or another loony President. A lot of people here vote for the party no matter who is running and there is a lot of sexism in business and politics.

This may be a very interesting 6 months.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 8:51 am
  #7079  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

There have been a lot of life long Republicans who are saying they will vote for Clinton now. They seem aware that a Trump presidency will put a nail in the coffin of the party. At least with a loss they might be able to brebuild without all the nut jobs. Doubt it, but you never know. The party could split in two.
 
Old May 4th 2016 | 9:01 am
  #7080  
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Default Re: 2016 Election

Originally Posted by dakota44
There have been a lot of life long Republicans who are saying they will vote for Clinton now. They seem aware that a Trump presidency will put a nail in the coffin of the party. At least with a loss they might be able to brebuild without all the nut jobs. Doubt it, but you never know. The party could split in two.
I doubt it. I think we'll see the Republicans swallow their pride and coalesce around Trump by the time of the convention. Except Cruz...
 


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