I personally like Rubio, but he's not popular with the conservative wing of the party because he was with the Gang of 8 and was pushing amnesty, which is anathema to them (and probably won't move the needle much on bringing Hispanics into the fold, either). Since Bush is floundering, Rubio stands to inherit the elites and the Big Money donors. That would cement him as their guy and, especially if he plays out like McCain and Romney, could cause the GOP to dissolve.

Real Clear Politics has him about 1.5 points over Clinton, so within the margin of error. She's up over Cruz by about 3.2 points, also within margin of error. Given the Dems built-in advantage with the big, electoral college-rich states, it all comes down to a few swing states. Cruz or Rubio would have to run the table on the swings and hold all the red states to win.

Long term, as I've posted earlier, demographics suggests we're drifting toward a one-party system unless there's a major realignment where virtually all the white voters flock to the Republican party and it all gets very tribal. Good thing I have connections in Canada. It looks better every year (wouldn't want to return to the UK to live - lived here too long).

You do know Trudeau is a liberal, right?

Absolutely. I was disappointed, but not surprised that Harper and his party lost. But politics in Canada isn't as crazy and divisive as here.

Also, even Harper is probably still to the left of what is considered mainstream conservative in the US!

I have a mate from school who lives in Canada, I liked it there when I went to visit him. It feels like the UK and the US had a bastard child a while ago, which inherited most of the good parts of each without too much of the bad (even though Canada is really the US's brother and France is it's mother )

And Cameron would fit right in the Democratic Party too. You'd have to go UKIP or some other extreme to even remotely match up to today's Republican Party.

Agreed. The DUP in Northern Ireland gets close too, with their religious bleatings, though I'd still rather see them win a majority than the 'alternative'.

It's always a bit weird when people threaten to leave the US if it become slightly less right-wing, and go to a country that is far more left-wing. I can never tell if they are being serious or not.

Well they could try somewhere more right wing, but I'm not sure they'd like Saudi Arabia.

MITT ROMNEY can defy the eve-of-election swing state polls and take the White House for the Republicans tomorrow, will Canada see lines of Americans at its border crossings, begging for asylum? As the New York Times reports, it's a refrain heard every four years: "If [insert Republican name] is elected president, I'm moving to Canada." It happened when George Bush replaced Bill Clinton, and it's happening again now, says the Times, with many left-leaning Americans, led by celebrities such as the actress Susan Sarandon and comedian George Lopez, saying they can't live in a country run by Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Cher led the charge back in May when she said she wouldn't be able to "breathe the same air" as Romney and "his Right Wing Racist Homophobic Women Hating Tea Bagger Masters". If Mitt Romney wins, it's time to head to Canada – or is it? | The Week UK

Evidently you guys have very short memories or tunnel vision, or both. Probably both.

Besides, I didn't say I'd consider moving to Victoria, BC if Hillary won. I was thinking about our demographic drift to a one-party state with tribal voting if most of the whites in the D party switch to the R party. That would be very ugly.

Who would have thought?

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/linds...013638940.html

This lot running for the Republican Presidential nomination are the scariest bunch I've seen in all the years I've been here. The only one who seems to be a non candidate for the loony bin is Rand Paul

Yup, Rubio seems the best of the bunch. Watched the GOP debate and have to say I was dumbfounded by Trump's imbecility. His arguments and rhetoric seem aimed at a middle school audience, and it's hard to believe someone that thick is a potential candidate for US president. Unless he's a Democrat stooge as some conspiricists suggest. Still like Jeb, despite his lacklustre support so far.

Jeb is actually the leading candidate by some measures such as endorsements. As you can see Trump has zero.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...ement-primary/

If the polls are to be believed it's working, which perhaps tells us that many Republican primary voters have a middle school level of reasoning.

Good point and site.