The most recent polls were all taken prior to this shooting:

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination

Trump's rise coincides with Carson's fall post the most recent debate.

He is the main one calling a spade a spade, Obama just announced that they are considering there may be a link to terrorism...

That was an awfully quick rise-and-fall in polling fortunes.

Do you think Carson is toast for the primaries as a consequence?

Carson was always toast.

This whole thing has been beyond weird. Trump dominates the polls but his followers are not all "traditional" Republican primary voters. I would bet many of them have never voted before at all and are only interested in the process because of Trump. Not that it actually matters as a practical matter, if they're going to vote in this primary then he's going to win, but it changes the dynamics. The reason that I bring it up though is that if the Trump anomaly didn't exist, then it is likely that Cruz would have surged much earlier. Which would have left space for Rubio and maybe Christie to rise at this point.

What's so sad is that Trump has sullied the party so badly that he's making even the most fanatical right wingers look reasonable in comparison. Trump has taught me to fear new things ... I used to be afraid of somebody like Cruz getting in the White House. Now, the thought of Trump winning actually gives me the cold sweats. I was heartened to see that he was shut down by protesters yesterday and is losing his voice. He looks absolutely awful too.

I think that when the primaries are run in March, Republican voters will coalesce around Rubio or Christie and either them, perhaps Cruz - or Bush at the outside- will be the nominee. The danger is that The Donald, to fuel his narcissistic ego, will run third party. For that reason he has to be handled with kid gloves. Either Rubio or Christie are the best hope of the Republicans, in my view.

Makes you wonder if Donalds's appeal is not one party focussed. I know some States do not require you to be a party member to vote in the primaries.

I know people who registered for the local party that was overwhelming in charge just to have a say as the Primary was where it was at and the election a forgone.

So today I got to thinking ... lets' say Trump becomes Prez. And let's say he actually tries to do some of the batshit-crazy stuff he talks about - bombing civilian centers overseas, torturing, rounding up Mexican families, trying force US Citizen Muslims to 'register', etc. And let's say the congress rightly stands firmly in his way since his plans are clearly illegal. The supreme court will get involved, and they too will stand in his way. So he says, f**ck it - I won by popular vote ... I'm going to do it anyway, and stirs up popular sentiment. As commander in chief of the armed forces ... I can imagine he could try to force the military to do some of his stuff. Just how far do you think his bat-shittery could go?

Sounds like Obama

Not very far, impeachment.

Chris Christie is completely brilliant as a candidate. He is so much more talented and interesting then Trump. Completely too right-wing for me to support but I do enjoy seeing him operate in real time. He's also the only one with the mental quickness and street brawling bona fides to actually be able to humiliate Trump the way that Trump has humiliated everybody else. Cruz fawns all over Trump and Rubio looks like a little kid.

Boiler, predictably but still somewhat prescient --- though not in the way he may think, pointed out the problem. Obama has been unable to push much of his agenda because of limited executive powers within the federal/state system.

The POTUS simply doesn't have the power to do the things that Trump is claiming he'll do. I don't know if he's ignorant or just a liar, probably a bit of both. Historically Donald Trump has got ahead by lying to the people he needs and then giving them the finger once he's won and doesn't need them anymore. With that said, he could definitely hurt the country as CIC and with foreign policy. I actually believe he already has hurt the country with his divisive and racist rabble-rousing.

So Obama 2?

Yes, Obama the racist, has done nothing if not keep his boot on the neck of the oppressed, middle-aged, white male.

So yes, a POSSIBLE parallel with Obama is that Obama has been blocked by congress, and so Trump may also be blocked (and as you say, I don't think that was Boiler's point). But the difference I fear is that Trump's bat-shittery extends to an aggressive foreign policy stance, and he may have a more direct line of control over the armed forces and may choose to fight if he doesn't get his way. Obama, at his core, is a political animal and understands the political rules. Trump just strikes me as crazy enough and naive enough to repeatedly say, 'I don't need your approval' and move ahead. Now, how far he'd actually get I don't know but I can imagine him causing a good deal of mischief. I can imagine ... "I'm your commander in chief and I order you to fly those bombing missions..."