Gazza-d

There's lots of cons going on in the hospitals over payment etc. My wife's aunt was in hospital and the final bill made no sense. A large part was for facilities and laboratories. We are talking 10s of ks. Well the only lab tests was a set of bloods, x-ray and swabs were paid in cash at the time. Facilities 48k ? labs 14k ? covid meds 61k totalling about 160k before senior and philhealth.
Talking to a neighbour who's mother was hospitalised non covid. The hospital wanted to admit her as a covid patient because they can then pass a bill onto the government which was something like triple the patient's initial bill.

Raffin

You said 6 days stay before so 48k for "facilities" seems on the high side and 14k for blood tests also.

Gazza-d

Room and board were separate and was reasonable.

Raffin

Oxygen, Ventilator?

Gazza-d

No not required.

I've now got sight of the bill which reads like an electricity bill.

Initially they wouldn't see her but had a change of heart. They wanted an initial payment of 10k then withheld treatment after a couple of days requiring further payment of 37k. Swab test and x-ray plus external pharmacy were paid independently. Only one initial blood test.

Emergency Room, 1000 pesos
Facilities, 48,772 pesos
Laboratory, 14,963 pesos
Misc, 325 pesos
Pharmacy, covid meds, 60,281 pesos
​Room and Board, 24,000 pesos
Doctors, 14,500 pesos

Raffin

Before yesterday's cases some clarification on yesterday's separately announced backlog of 3,439 cases. The DOH said they were in the data system over the last 3 weeks and except for about 50 were recoveries and 2 more deaths. How many more cases have simply disappeared for ever in their data system? Another source of under recording here.

Yesterday another 4,043 new cases and 435 held over. Positivity maintained at 8.6% from 52.1k tests. Coming along 48.9k tests.

Recoveries 3.2k

Active 50,630

Severe 3,088, down 2, Critical 1,316, up 20

NCR and National ICU 41/50% both unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 660
4A 468
CL 328
Bic 296
CV 288
WV 274
Cag 264
SOCCSK 247
IL 224
CAR 222

100s 3 regions

All but two regions had less cases.
SOCCSK had 82 more and Bicol 25 more.

The NCR with a low 16.3% of cases, down over 600.
4A in second place had over 500 less.
CL was down by over 300.
These top 3 regions with only 36% of all cases, down 5%.

The top 6 regions had 49.8% of all cases, down 13%.

The DOH claiming they have successfully controlled the spread of the delta variant here:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...ealth-official

We await the delta plus variant, which is likely to get here, despite all the controls. Not known yet how dangerous it is. But with so many not fully vaccinated we are vulnerable to new variants and variant testing to know they are here is slow.

Raffin

Yesterday 4,008 cases announced, 4 labs late but not affecting the total much. Only 47 from backlog. Positivity 7.8% from 50.8k tests. In preparation 46.4k.

Recoveries 6.9k

Deaths 423 with 373 RDs
High total from a large backlog mostly due to recent data problems

Active 47,690

Severe 3,100, up 12 Critical 1,288, down 18

NCR ICU 42%, up 1%. National 49%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 627
Cag 593
CAR 424
4A 382
MIM 247
CL 236
ZP 233
WV 229
CV 214
UL 201
Bic 180

NCR down by a few and at a lower 15.6% of all cases.
Cagayan added over 300 more. The CAR over 200 more.
These top 3 regions at 41% of all cases, up.

The top 6 regions 62.6%, up.


Graph from OCTA showing a recent reduction in positivity in the NCR:




Data issues:

UK case data from the government.


From the ZOE symptom tracking app. Latest daily numbers over 90k.


ZOE showing about twice as much infection as the government. it always showed more and some of that difference could be explained by self reporting. But now a large difference.

Dr Campbell is confident in the ZOE data and is sure UK cases are about 50% under reported. He gives two reasons. One is the increasing use of home lateral flow test kits in the UK. The other is the UK government ignoring the change of symptoms with the delta variant causing many people not to be correctly diagnosed. Something which is surely happening here.

Interesting that the ONS in the UK , which looks at a wider range of data than the government, is much closer to the ZOE figures.

See "Inconsistencies in official numbers". You tube, October 29


Govt gets severely marked down by Dr John.

Weekly update later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

Percentage change last week's new cases on the week before.

Philippines -49

Regions:

5 increasing

MIM +39
SOCCSK 24
Caraga 25
BARMM 15
NM 5

IL -46
Cag 34
Bic 29
CV 27
WV 26
EV 24

All others decreasing by less including the NCR and 4A each by 11, CL by 17%

NCR cities (all AL3):

Increasing:

Malabon 36
Makati 33
Las Pinas 31
Taguig 7
San Juan 5
Pasig 1
Valenzuala 1

Nine decreased:

Navotas 39
Paranaque 33
Pasay 30
Caloocan 26
Marikina 25
Manila 21
Muntinlupa 19
QC 14
Mandaluyong 7

Pateros no change.

Provinces around Manila:

Most decreased:

Pampanga 41
Quezon 33
Cavite 25
Pangasinan 18
Batangas 8
Laguna 8

Except:

Rizal +6
Bulacan 3

Bataan 0

Other cities:

Angeles -3
Bag +18 (AL 3)
Zambales +41

Lucena -49

Naga -31
Sor -8

Bac -34 (AL 4)
Cebu C -45
IloIlo C -26 (AL 3)
LapuLapu -23
Tac -17

CDO -4
Cot -15
Dav +10
GSan +24
Iligan -20
Zam -21

Areas:

Aklan -65
Bohol -50
IloIlo -26

Raffin

About 600 less cases announced yesterday at 3,410. Four labs late. Backlog low at 66. Positivity 7.2% from 46.5k tests. A lower 41.3k in preparation.

Recoveries 5.8k

Deaths 128, 91 RDs.

Severe 3,076, down 24, Critical 1,312, up 24

NCR ICU 39%, down 3% National ICU 46%, down 3%

Regional data|

NCR 570
4A 373
Cag 328
CAR 289
MIM 225
CL 212
WV 207
CV 207
IL 202

100s 3 regions

Only 3 regions had more cases, all with small increases..

NCR at 16.7% of all cases.
The top 3 regions at 37.3% of all cases, down.

The top 6 regions had 58.6% of all cases, down.


Philippine vaccine update using ABS-CBN data:

26.8M 2 doses, 31.4M 1 dose At Oct 28

100.5M doses arrived at 29 Oct

78M distributed as of Oct 25.

About 24M doses available now for LGUs, allowing for some recent deliveries over the last 2 days.
About 22M yet to be distributed.
Assuming brands match well, enough to add second doses to the 31M who have had 1 dose, with about 15M over.
About 60M then fully vaccinated, over half the adult population.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/m...accine-tracker

Bealinehx

The ABS-CBN vaccine tracker really highlights the uneven vaccine distribution across the nation. Storage for Pfizer and Moderna must be a huge issue to deal with as they require ultra cold storage facilities That combined with intermittent power supplies in the provinces, particularly in Mindanao.
The big question is now 'Will the governments vaccination target be met by years end?' Food for thought.

Raffin

Yes, it is, as the Vaccine Czar just a few days before the DOH announced 70% by year's end he was talking February.
Experience elsewhere eg UK, USA shows that after an initial spurt vaccination progress slows as you get further into lower priority groups and, in less developed countries like the Philippines, more remote areas.

Also, are they working down the priority groups properly? Back in early July only about 10% of Seniors were fully vaccinated. They came out with a target to do 90% by the end of that month. Complete failure as by mid October still over 3M or about half not fully done.

Raffin

New cases down by about 300 yesterday, but 8 labs were late to submit. From DOH data it is likely these would have added only 30-40 cases. Positivity 7.5% from 41.7k tests. A much lower 29.5k coming.

Recoveries 5.1k

Deaths 104, 68 RDs

Active 43,185

Severe 3,153, up 77. Critical 1,296, down 16

NCR ICU 39%, unchanged. National ICU 45%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 537
Cag 408
CAR 340
4A 282
CL 247
CV 190
Bic 183
WV 183
IL 133
MIM 119

The NCR had a few less cases with 17.2% of the nation's total. Cagayan in second place put on 80 more. CAR added 49 more. These top 3 regions had 41.2% of all cases, up.

The top 6 regions had 64.3% of national cases, up.

NCR cities:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...7?ocid=BingHPC

The OCTA group see a downward trend for all cities, despite some of them having increases recently. I picked out 3 cities with high weekly increases in my weekly report last Sunday. They mention others based on more recent data.
They say they partly base their view on a 0.53 R number. Case numbers can be delayed, they say.
But how do they calculate their R numbers? Information on that is difficult to find but it does have a lot to do with contact tracing, which is known to be poor.

Raffin

Yesterday about 800 less cases announced and a 285 backlog was included to have 3,117 cases. Eight labs late but they would only have added about 20 more. Positivity 6.8% from 29.7k tests, ABS-CBN say the lowest positivity since Feb 24. Tests coming along maintained at 29k.

Recoveries 4.7k

Deaths 128 with 106 RDs.

Active 40,786

Severe 3,059. down 94. Critical 1,305, up 9

NCR ICU 40%, up 1%. National 46%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 454
CAR 279
Cag 232
4A 201
CL 183
IL 165
WV 143
MIM 126
CV 113
Dav 101

Fourteen regions were down.
The NCR by about 80 cases and had 19.7% of all cases.

Top 3 regions 41.9% of cases.

The top 6 had 65.7%. Ilocos added 32 cases..

Date of onset DOH charts:


National cases down with some slowing. Note gap from trend line showing lag.


Similar for the NCR.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...iolated/story/

The DOH think that by putting out "worst case" scenario projections they will keep up public social distancing and the following of other protocols as things open up. They did something similar a few months ago with the delta variant increase. But they lose public confidence as it's only the large numbers that get the attention.

But some rise is likely from the holiday season, the cooler weather and the lack of testing. One reduced by vaccination progress .Though a larger rise could come from a new variant next year.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

The problem is that the IATF is a large body. They have no equivalent of the UKs SAGE here,

Here these small issues need a decision from the very top. Looks like that won't come so these useless and annoying plastics will linger on for a while as they are first dropped by the larger cities followed by the others. The lead taken by the President's home town:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/02/...-in-davao-city

I think individual presidential candidates could gain a lot of support by just campaigning on this issue.

Raffin

A further fall by about 700 in total cases announced yesterday. But 7 labs were late to submit and 60 positive results were held over. Positivity at 5.6% from 29.5k tests. Coming along 33.5k tests.

Recoveries 4.3k

Deaths 186 with 132 RDs

Active 38,014

Severe 3,079, up 20 and Critical 1,293, down 12

NCR ICU 44%, up 4%. National 39%, down 7%
Big daily changes.

Regional data:

NCR 237
IL 178
4A 157
Cag 152
CL 145
CAR 121
Bic 87

The NCR with over 200 fewer cases and a low 14.9% of all cases. 4A had 40 less but Ilocos reported 13 more.
Top 3 regions 36% of cases, down.

Cagayan, CL and the CAR all had less cases.
The top 6 regions 65.2% of cases, down slightly.

Bicol had 40 more.


A nationwide fall in cases:


From the top: NCR,4A,CL,CV, WV, Cag, other regions.

Concentrating on the bars rather than the misleading trend lines there is a similar case fall showing in all regions.

But vaccination roll out differs greatly:


By far the most vaccination in the NCR and its surrounding regions.
As of Nov 2.

Areas where vaccination is low also have falling cases. So vaccination levels are not the main reason for falling cases.
While there is no doubt there is not enough testing and some misdiagnosis so that many cases have been undetected it is clear that virus transmission has been so far successfully restricted by good adherence to the protocols, movement restrictions and business restrictions etc. Schools not back.

Compare to the UK's high vaccination rate with a high infection rate.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/03/...vincial-levels

ABS-CBN's latest vaccine report says that about 27M doses distributed nationally have not been used. As vaccination in Manila and around is now reaching target levels the great majority of those would have gone to the remoter areas of Luzon, Visayas and particularly Mindanao.

Of course it is more difficult to vaccinate in less developed, remote areas of the country and LGUs in those areas have had nothing to do for many months so they could not be expected to keep resources and arrangements on standby for that long time waiting for supply.

Gazza-d

Deaths still remain stubbornly high. Dr John in his latest edition mentioned a data tracker in the Economist showing excess deaths as a measure of more likely death rates compared the the widely underreported national figures. For the Philippines the excess death rate is in the region of 110k to 230k compared to the government's 43.4k.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-app-economist