Raffin

Dr John's latest video is a brilliant review of a number of pharmacological papers about protease inhibitors. They break down protein chains. If you can find something to stop them then you reduce viral replication.


A screenshot from "Interesting video".
I've stopped putting You tube links here as they disappear.

One example of a protease inhibitor is Paxlovid, a new drug from Pfizer:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...ment-candidate

But there are others eg Remdesivir....and Ivermectin

If you follow Dr John you can guess Ivermectin beats all of them.

"Come on ya all" refers to the solid opposition to Ivermectin as an antiviral from the makers, the WHO, many national health bodies and well known specialist doctors. This morning watched as the normally excellent CNN chief medical correspondent Dr Sanjay Gupta put it down.

Gazza-d

The problem with Ivermectin is that it's generic, readily available and cheap. No money to be made. Although these drugs are a great weapon in our armoury I wonder if they would have the effect of reducing general immunity gained.

Raffin

DOH very late with the local data today.

Yesterday 2,646 cases announced, They included a backlog of 1,108. Seven labs were late, which would have contributed about 140 more positives. Which were at 4.3% from 35.8k tests. A higher 42.1k tests are in preparation.

Recoveries 4.0k

Deaths 99, including 84 RDs.

Active 29,138

Severe 3,030, down 20 and Critical 1,282, down 1

NCR ICU 40%, up 3%. National 42% unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 553
4A 286
CAR 239
CL 236
IL 186
MIM 179
WV 155
Cag 133
Bic 117

All regions went up on the day before.
NCR with 20.9% of all cases, up by about 250.
Both 4A and the CAR up by around 100.
These top 3 regions at 40.7% of cases, down.

CL and Ilocos were each up by around 100. MIM gained 77.
The top 6 regions at 67.5%, down.

WV, Cagayan and Bicol were each up by around 100.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4

Gen San and Cebu Cities also drop mandatory face shields, with some exceptions.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Can you believe this?

Commercial vaccines may not be offered here for 10 months! Phase 3 trials must be completed first to get a licence. Eg Pfizer's will take until July. But their vaccine and most others in use here have already been given many millions of times around the world in countries with advanced data collection and analysis, much better than here. The results are usually easily available. What is likely to come out different here? You would think an exception could be made, given the situation?
I'm sure, come next year, there will be many people here who would rather get their vaccine from a reputable company than from their LGU. And they will need to wait that long to do so?

Bealinehx

I can believe anything that happens here.
People in high places always looking for a quick buck, coupled with the national pastime of overcomplicating even the most simple of tasks.

Raffin

Yesterday nearly 700 less cases announced and that included a backlog of 151. Two labs late with a very small effect on cases. Positivity 4.9% from 43.4k tests with a similar number coming along.

Recoveries 2.4k

Deaths 142, 104 of them RDs.

Active 28,660
Lowest since Feb 22.

Severe 2,981, down 49. Critical 1,261, down 21

NCR ICU 38%, down 2%. National 41%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 445
4a 180
CV 179
CL 146
WV 133
ZP 110
SOCCS 109
IL 107
Bic 104

Most regions with fewer cases reported, except CV with 85 more and four Mindanao regions, Zamboanga, N Mindanao, Davao and SOCCSKSARGEN, with small increases.

The NCR had a higher 22.5% of all cases.
Top 3 regions 40.7%, unchanged.
Top 6 with 60.4%, down.

Faceshields revolt:

LapuLapu City, Cebu joins the rebels.
IATF announcement promised today.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/11/...f-face-shields

Raffin

A similar new case number announced at 1,894 but 504 positives were held over. Two labs late to submit. Positivity higher at 5.5% from 43.6k tests. About 2k more in process.

Recoveries 1.4k

Deaths 170, 145 RDs.

Active 29,105

Severe 2,969, down 12, Critical 1,281, up 20

NCR ICU 35%, down 3%. National 39%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 424
Cag 218
CV 172
4A 158
CAR 132
CL 112
Bic 108
Dav 106

NCR at a similar share, 22.4% of total cases.
Cagayan put on 127 more to come second.
The top 3 regions at 43.0%, up.

The CAR added about 70 more to come fifth.
The top 6 regions at 64.2% of all cases, up.

Face shields:

Muntinlupa joins Manila in the NCR to stop mandatory face shields outside hospitals.
The promised policy not yet forthcoming. Whether still not agreed by the IATF or waiting for the President's approval we don't know. Many other Mayors will join the rebels if nothing comes out soon.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/12/...-shield-policy




Screenshot from Dr John's "Alternative facts" video.

Dr John gently fact checks the team of journalists from Facebook who fact checked his "Interesting video", now renamed "New Pfizer drug and Ivermectin", which he put up earlier this week. He lets them off lightly but perhaps because of that it's a very effective put down.

Raffin

Yesterday a little over 100 more announced cases over the day before, at 1,997. Held over were 71 cases. Positives 4.5% of 46k tests. Coming along 40.6k tests.

Recoveries 1.7k

Deaths 238, 216 RDs.

Active: 29,382

Severe 2,968, down 1. Critical 1,263, down 18

NCR ICU 30%, down 5%. National 36%, down 3%
Big daily falls.

Regional data:

NCR 524
4A 191
Cag 147
CAR 138
CV 132
ZP 128
WV 116
CL 111
Dav 102

The NCR with a higher 26.2% of all cases.
Region 4A had 32 more cases.
The top 3 regions 43.2% of all cases, up.

Zamboanga added 38 more. The top 6 regions had 63.1% of cases, down.

Elsewhere, Ilocos reported 32 more than the day before to have 70 cases.


National cases by estimated date of onset falling nicely but note the delays of many weeks.


Deaths have fallen at an inconsistent rate starting in late September. Given the DOH data problems we can't be at all sure over the last few week's progress.


A chart shown in Dr John's latest video. UK government case data showing a concerning steady rise in the red line....cases in the fully vaccinated.

Weekly update coming later today.

Raffin

Weekly update:

This week the falls in cases generally continue. But as would be expected after the recent large falls at a much lower rate. Some areas and cities show a week on week increase.

Philippines: new cases last week 14% less than the week before.

Regions:

Three Mindanao regions..Caraga, Davao and SOCCSKSARGEN increased their new cases by between 25 and 40%.

Region 4A had a 12% increase.
The NCR increased by 5%.

Falls in the other 12 regions went up to 37% (Cagayan).

In the NCR 7 cities showed a week on week increase:

Leaving out Navotas, due to its small numbers of new cases, they were (highest increases first):

San Juan
Muntinlupa
Malabon
Las Pinas
Caloocan

Biggest falls:

Valenzuala 44%
Manila 41
Marikina 39
Paranaque 25

QC fell by 8%

For the provinces around the NCR most showed a modest increase in new cases from the week before.
The exceptions were Pangasinan and Quezon, which had 34 and 24% falls respectively, and Bataan, which had a fall of 20%. The figure for Bataan shown last week was incorrect. It should have shown a fall of around 20%.

For cities:

Note: for some cities and areas % changes are now calculated from small numbers of cases.

Angeles -11
Baguio -29
Zambales +77

Lucena -41

Naga -1
Sorsogon -12

Bacolod -27
Cebu -32
IloIlo +6
LapuLapu +79
Tacloban -18

CDO -32
Cotabato -49
Davao +11
GenSan +19
Iligan -37
Zamboanga -15

Visayan areas:

Aklan +55
Bohol -18
IloIlo -23

MECQ areas:

Mountain Province +4
Catanduanes, Bicol 0

Alert Level 4:

Negros Occ -28
Davao Occ 0
Aurora -60

Alert Level 3

Siquijor -61
Davao del Norte -9
Lanao del Norte 0 (rough estimate due to missing data)

Raffin

About 70 less cases announced yesterday. Backlog included was 327. Two labs late. Positivity 3.9% from 41k tests. In preparation 38.7k.

Recoveries 3.1k

Deaths 309, 245 of them were RDs.

Active 28,102

Severe 2,951, down 17, Critical 1,265, up 2

NCR ICU 31%, up 1%. National 34%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 400
Cag 234
4A 186
CAR 163
CV 138
CL 120
ZP 98
WV 91
MIM 86

The NCR down by over 100 to have 20.8% of all cases.
Cagayan added 87.
The top 3 regions with 42.6% of all cases, down.

In the other regions in the top 6 the CAR had 25 more.
The top 6 regions had 64.4% of cases, up.

Caraga and NM added 30 and 43 cases respectively.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

This is one of the last countries in the world to not resume some type of face-to face schooling.
Operating a widely criticized paper modules system for most State pupils.
Are they thinking they have a choice not to resume physical lessons soon?
They could look at the many examples around the world and gradually bring back students to classrooms rather than do these small scale pilots.

https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...-november-2021

The new Alert levels until the end of November... covering all but a few areas now.

The latest OCTA update:



A tale of two Negroses:

Negros Oriental was doing better than its twin province, Negros Occidental. Not any more. Occidental was previously under level 4, now 2.


Negros Occidental


Negros Oriental

Reginal vaccination progress, by Nov 4:


Total doses given.

Raffin

Yesterday nearly 400 less new cases, although 58 positives were held over and a few cases were lost, only about 5, when 3 labs submitted late. Positivity 4.1% from 39.1k tests. Tests in preparation down to 27.8k.

Recoveries 2.6k

Deaths 128

Active 27,025
Lowest since Feb22

Severe 2,919, down 32. Critical 1,243, down 22

NCR ICU 30%, down 1%. National 35%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 317
Cag 156
4A 155
WV 105
CAR 103
CL 100
MIM 91

NCR down 83 cases to have 20.5% of all cases.
Overall 12 regions were down in numbers and they included Cagayan and 4A.
The top 3 regions had 40.6% of all cases, down.

WV added 14 but the CAR and CL were both down.
The top 6 regions had 60.5% of all cases, also down.

Elsewhere, EV added 39 and Davao 17.

Face shields:

At last! Face shields out unless Alert levels 4 or 5
In 4 optional for LGUs, in 5 mandatory.
Note: AL 5 the same as ECQ.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/15/...-level-3-below

The President weighs in on the 2 year old covid case. Gives advice to LGUs to stop parents bringing U12s to Malls.
The Philippines does not have many places you can go out to and walk around in comfort, Malls are the main places.
Policy being made from one unproven case, the DOH view on this not followed, and another example of mistakenly trying for 100% risk reduction when young kids and parents have been confined indoors for so long:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/16/...-public-spaces

But I think the President's influence on LGUs is waning.

12-17 years vaccination roll out:

Our LGU started yesterday with about 550 first vaccinations done. Today they continue with adult vaccinations. The times of further 12-17 vaccinations not yet announced.
They will certainly need them as hundreds were turned away yesterday. You had to get there by about 5am to get one. We didn't!
From a rough calculation I have made our LGU is likely to have at least 10,000 12-17 year olds. The national age distribution shows about 24% of the population of that age.

This is the current estimated Philippines population pyramid, with an exceptionally large bulge towards the younger ages, even compared with many other developing countries:



Another aspect of 12-17 vaccination are the longer vaccination lines, as parents, guardians come along. At our local school they normally go out of the school area and down a busy main road, but sensibly yesterday the line was confined to the school premises. But much of it dangerously snaked and compressed in a concreted assembly area, risking covid transmission. Face shields and masks required to be worn but we know they are often not worn properly by the young, especially in those circumstances.

Those with comorbidities were asked to not come yesterday but the line included some, identifiable from carrying the required medical certificates. The idea to reduce the risk to them, but the message did not get through to some.
Another complication involved with vaccinating this age group.

Bealinehx

So Dr John in his last post included an important piece about 'herd immunity', or the lack thereof. Quoting the CDC in Washington DC herd immunity may never happen, quite a sobering thought. So all those LGU leaders who have been lauding 70% herd immunity target reached better think again. To end on a positive note yesterdays declared new cases dropped to below 1000. Now the real test will be battling complacency.

Gazza-d

The continuing high case levels in the UK seems be driven by face to face schooling. It will be interesting to see what happens when they start full scale face to face classes here in the Philippines.

Raffin

The lowest daily total since Dec 28 at 849, although 6 labs were late to submit and 51 positives were held over. Positives 3.2% from 28.1k tests. In preparation 33.3k.

Recoveries 2.4k

Deaths 99, 83 RDs.

Active 25,464

Severe 2,928, up 9. Critical 1,248, up 5

NCR ICU 33%, up 3%. National 34%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 207
Cag 112
4A 88
CL 61
CAR 60
IL 50

NCR 24.4% of all cases, up.
Top 3 regions 47.9%, up
Top 6 68.0%, up

All regions with less cases yesterday, except NM, up by 11.

For once the Philippines doing better than most of its neighbours:


Indonesia: latest daily total 347.


Malaysia 5,413


Thailand 5,947


Vietnam 10,259

Raffin

The UK a bit slow with the 12-17 Pfizer vaccine. By the time England pupils returned in September only 5% of 12-15s had a first dose, 25% of 16-17s. In October 2.5% of school kids were off at home with covid. Combine that with general disregard there for the health protocols from the, I think, premature announcement in July of restrictions lifting, waning immunity from earlier vaccination, vaccination not mandated in schools, poor ventilation.. then we get the present high case levels. So schools going back a main cause, not the only.

The Philippines now has a "last mover" advantage, it can learn from other countries, as OCTA suggests:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/11/16/...must-says-octa

Masks a bit uncomfortable in the heat and will limit class interaction. Presumably windows will be open and AC, if there, off. Perhaps limit masks to outside the classroom?

Given the crowded state school classrooms that are the norm here they could organise a half way return at first, restricting classroom tuition to certain subjects. Perhaps for those which pupils have found most difficult under the mainly paper based module system.

But there's one big problem with any innovative solutions here. Getting them approved at the very top.

The government wants to leave office and fight the election claiming a win over the virus. Low case numbers and their modest vaccination targets achieved. Never mind about having a serious, long running epidemic here. Seeming more likely now the experts are very unsure about herd immunity ever being achieved.

However good the precautions a school return of well over 20M pupils will have an upward effect on cases here. Schools are used for vaccination centers too and other venues will have to be found. The present government leadership will not want to balance those negatives against the great damage done by 2 years lost physical schooling. So I expect any local or general case rise and schools will be closed again.

Raffin

Nearly 350 more cases yesterday compared to the day before. Only 15 from backlog and just one small lab late to report. Positivity at 3.5% from 33.6k tests. Tests on the way at 39.0k.

Recoveries 2.8k.

Deaths 309, 264 RDs.
DOH lamenting that of the 309 188 occurred back in October.
Says again it will improve deaths data reporting.

Active 23,846
Lowest since Jan 12.

Severe 2,862, down 66. Critical 1,192, down 56

Regional data:

NCR 315
4A 174
WV 85
CL 83
Dav 77
CAR 75

NCR added 108 to have 26.5% of all cases.
4A had 86 more and WV 55 more.
These top 3 regions had 48.2% of cases, up.

Davao added 52 more.
Top 6 regions with 68%, unchanged.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=1

Restaurants not making a profit at the existing indoor dining maximum. Temptation to overlook if one member of a party has no vaccination certificate.

What are they going to do if the answer is "yes..no vacc cert and going to dine in, but first will do some shopping". Are they going to follow them around, warn the establishment they are told..? Stop them coming in? A really silly suggestion!

Anyway, unfair to give mall main door security this extra duty, especially when many coming in will not answer truthfully. How many are putting the correct information on those ridiculous contact tracing slips?