Raffin

OS, I don't have any problem if you want to follow mainstream medical advice. I probably would also if I caught covid.

But some people are more experimental and others have resorted to non recommended treatments through desperation. They are usually mistrustful of government bodies and experts. They have become more so when they see the authorities make some large blunders in the pandemic based on expert advice.

I'm introducing big pharma conspiracy theories to BE, am I? What?

Please, Moderator, read again carefully what I wrote.
I did not say there is an Ivermectin conspiracy with big Pharma.
All I said was that there's no money in it for them. Is that controversial? They're not charities.
And Group Think needs no conspiracy to operate.
So thanks for the suggestion but I won't be starting a new thread. No time for that anyway!

Readers, members and guests can follow up the links I give and those that Dr J gives for further elucidation. The topics I sometimes cover are being increasingly explained in the media at different levels as the pandemic progresses. So easy to find a simple explanation in one click.

old.sparkles

Just a note, I am not a moderator in this section of BE, so don't take my comments as such.

I'm wandering as not too many people around, but am cautious of dis-information or incomplete / misleading info. If that makes me a follower of mainstream, so be it.

Raffin

Well Moderator or not when you wander you need to read what people post carefully. Terms like "big pharma" are used in different contexts. From simply to denote the dozen or so largest multinational pharmaceutical companies through to indicating the presence of conspiracy. I can understand that your job makes you extra sensitive to disinformation etc. But in this case you were over sensitive.

I think one can be a follower of mainstream but at the same time have an open mind about any evidence that comes up which supports ideas which are not mainstream.

Raffin

The DOH seem to have kept to the data released in 2021, which they had said they were changing from today. Maybe they took note of the protests by some senators. We will see if it continues next week.

New cases for New Year's Day put on over 600 more compared to New Year's Eve.. And there were again cases held over. Today they totaled 710. Positivity was up 4.5% to 14.8%.

Note: Yesterday the NCR added over 900 new cases.
Manila added 63% more, QC's increased by 115% over Dec 30's number.

The DOH have found 14 Omicron cases, 3 of which are local.

Recoveries 468

Deaths 43, 41 RDs
5 Dec, 4 Nov, 7 Oct, 14 Sep
The remaining 13 go back to August 2020.

Severe 1,635, down 66. Critical 339, down 3

NCR ICU 25%, up 1%. National 20%, unchanged.

Raffin

Weekly update:

The total number of cases recorded from daily reports rose by more than four times over the previous week, more accurately by nearly 4.5 times.

This seems a much too sudden large reversal. Some experts are attributing this to Omicron on top of the normal increase to be expected from the holidays. There were many in late November and December, three plus Xmas and effectively New Year's Eve.
But it could also have a lot to do with data being delayed in the system, whether for valid or not so valid reasons. Were cases in early December a lot higher than officially reported? Both local and central government bodies potentially have the motivation to delay announcements when cases are rising. Certainly cases "held over" have been increasing lately at the DOH. They do not publish the figures but it is a simple calculation to work them out. When asked about that they always answer they are held "for further validation".

Regional changes new cases last week over the previous week:
Ordered from highest to lowest % change

NCR 903
4A 492
CL 328
EV 206
NM 203
SOCCSK 139
CAR 105
Caraga 100
CV 87
BARMM 85
IL 81
Bic 74
Cag 56
Zam 52
WV 46
MIM 44
Dav 39

So nearly half of the regions doubled or more than doubled their cases last week over the previous week.

Notes:
The effect of Odette on cases and their testing may have depressed numbers in parts of the Visayas and Mindanao over the last two weeks.
Generally, regions in the Visayas and Mindanao mostly had small numbers for the previous week.

NCR cities:

For the 6 with the greatest population
Multiple increases.

Manila 12.4
QC 11.3
Pnque 8.7
Caloocan 8.2
Taguig 7.0
Pasig 5.8

Major provinces around the NCR:

Bulacan x6.7
Laguna 6.2
Cavite 6.2
Rizal 4.2

Major cities outside the NCR % increases:
North to South

Baguio 50
Cebu 240
Bacolod 88
CDO 67
Iligan 100
GenSan 156
Davao 8
Zamboanga 37

Again there were some very small numbers in the previous week for these cities.

The outlook?

We don't have the genomic testing capability to know the contribution of Omicron here but a similar result in a week's time will add more weight to the opinion of some experts here that Omicron is behind the rapid rise. In other words we can better tell when further away from all the holidays, factors causing data delays and the effects of typhoon Odette.
For now the suspicion is based on the experience of other countries, where case doubling times soon came down to around two days. Maybe we are approaching that now in the NCR? We already have the DOH report of a 9 fold increase there last week on the week before. That may have been exaggerated somewhat by testing and reporting delays but even so I think it suggests some Omicron contribution.


Latest OCTA report, 1 in 5 testing positive.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

Full vaccinations 5M short by year end:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/01/...ination-target

Effects of Omicron:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...d?ocid=BingHPC

This is something that is already being seen on a large scale in the US and UK. If as seems likely we will also have an Omicron wave here we could be more seriously affected as organisations here are not using IT so much. They are more labour intensive. There could even be effects on covid testing services, which would be dealing with more cases anyway. So we could be even more in the dark about how things are going than we are now!

I would advise anybody who's got to deal with a government office here in the next few months to bring that forward, if possible.
Eg Annual Report: deadline is end of February, but it may be an idea to go in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

Raffin

Another 1k or so cases announced over the total for the day before, ,resulting in 4,600 today. Nine labs late to submit. Also another 520 cases were held back, making about 2k held and not yet announced by the DOH from the last 5 days. Positivity up to 19.6% from 26.1k tests.

Recoveries 535

Deaths 25, 7 RDs
7 from Dec, 2 Nov, 1 Oct,
4 Sep, 6 Aug
5 back to March

Active 21,418

Severe 1,589, down 46. Critical 335, down 4

NCR ICU 27%, up 2%. National 22%, up 2%

Bealinehx

Tighten your seat belts we are in for a bumpy ride !

Raffin

Yesterday the NCR added close to 800 to the New Year's Day total, making 3,317 new cases. We don't know how many NCR results are waiting in their 2k plus backlog. There must be a good number.

Manila added just over100 more to 949 and QC well over 200 to 648.
The more populated QC is now starting to catch up with Manila.

The DOH say 99% of results announced yesterday were from Dec 20 onwards. But surely many more people who felt a little unwell over the last week will only be presenting themselves for testing this week?

Bealinehx

My wife has just returned from her night shift from the maternity hospital and reported 5 Covid cases among the staff. It is a small private establishment so I suspect that the MM numbers will escalate to very high levels in the very near future.
The imposition of Level 3 may be superseded by level 4 before the 15th January.

Raffin

Today 4,084 new cases, a fall on yesterday as these are from low testing over New Year. Included 236 from backlog but we should also take into account 21 labs were late to submit. The DOH gives out information suggesting they would have added over 200 cases. Positivity 20.7% from 18.6k tests.

Recoveries 497

Deaths 16
11 from Dec, 3 Oct, 1 Sep, 1 Aug
These numbers lately greatly under-reported.

Severe 1,563, down 26. Critical 331, down 4

NCR ICU 29%, up 2%. National 23%, up 1%
NCR covid ward beds 30%

Vaccination:

Moves to restrict movement of the unvaccinated:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...level-3/story/

Testing:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=2

Nothing about rapid tests that can be used at home.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...testing/story/

Random testing on the trains? Not random. Some people volunteer but others who staff approach can refuse, the report says. If the idea is to find covid cases it will be partially successful. But as not random it will not give an accurate estimate of the infection rate of passengers.



Collaborative research from a number of SA research institutes. Of some relevance to the Philippines.

The Delta variant was becoming dominant in some areas of SA 6 months ago. Three months ago the WHO declared the Delta variant to be dominant here:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/who-s...ugust-31-2021/

So if this finding is correct people who catch Omicron who have already caught Delta will have increased protection from catching Delta again. As Omicron becomes dominant it will start to replace Delta quickly for this reason in addition to it being much more transmissible.
While the Philippines has a much lower covid infection rate than SA it will still get some benefit from this finding, if confirmed by other researchers.

Bealinehx

Well at last the unvaccinated are being penalised and not seniors. Has common sense at last prevailed. Mmmm

Raffin

Under Alert Level 3 Seniors only to go out for "essential purposes", for goods and services, work in permitted industries.".

But new now is that the mayors reportedly want the unvaccinated to have a test every 2 weeks at their work. Should be a PCR test at their own expense, otherwise if not available, a rapid test.
Let's see if that is actually followed in all 17 cities.

Also to be banned from leisure and social trips to Malls. But they can just say they are going in for essential goods and services!

Bealinehx

Will face shields return?????

Gazza-d

Only if someone in government sees some money to be made or has some stock to shift.

Raffin

I don't think commercial considerations have much to do with this face shield decision, at least now. One of the main supporters of this policy, Int Sec Ano, is a retired general. Many battle honours and got covid twice. Not someone likely to have links with Chinese importers, but just someone when he takes a view on something with his military mindset, that's it. He has called for mandatory vaccination.

This face shield issue, like the motorcycle barrier, shows up the way pandemic decisions have been made here. You've got the IATF, a large unwieldy body with a mix of experts and government secretaries on it. Then also the DOH. Some doctors weigh in from there but the Secretary rarely comes out with any single view on anything.

Many decisions here, even some small ones, have to be approved at the very top but the position there is occupied with someone with a decisive, strongman image but who on this issue and others recently keeps changing his mind.

Unlike facemasks there's no proper science to rely on so it comes down to a few people eg Interior Secretary Ano who believe these plastic barriers reduce transmission a great deal. They don't think that most transmission now takes place in home settings where you cannot mandate face shields. The recent increases are certainly mostly due to holiday gatherings though Omicron may have quickened the increases.

Then you have a number of people who just argue "..it's a good idea because every little helps. The President is one. Even if true here not a sensible approach to any issue as both groups ignore the practical problems and the way people use them.

So, where are they?

At the end of November it was "up to the task force".

https://pia.gov.ph/press-releases/20...variant-threat

Np guidance came out so In the end LGUs, starting with City of Manila, stopped their mandatory use.in most settings.

The DOH doc said no need, but qualifies with "as transmission is low"
Well, it's not low now, so are you still not in favour?

https://philnews.ph/2021/11/30/no-ne...on-threat-doh/

At sixes and sevens.