Bealinehx

The Under Secretary at DOH has raised the topic of pandemic transiting to endemic. From all corners of the world a consistent message is emerging in that we will all have to live have to learn to live with the virus, and, hopefully Omicron 2 will be the baseline.

Raffin

I just looked at Indonesia, they now seem to have started Omicron, a month after the Philippines. My theory is because of OFWs here. Given the very many countries around the world the OFWs travel to and from isn't that a risk to saying the Philippines is now endemic?

Bealinehx

Life is a risk. We just have to hope that those who dictate safeguards act with prudence.

Raffin

Sunday testing is always low and this was reflected in yesterday's new case numbers at a much lower 3,574. Held over 298 positive results and 6 late labs would likely have added over 100 cases.

Recoveries 14,644

Deaths 83, 35 RDs
53 Feb, 24 Jan
6 going back to June.

Active 105,550

Severe 1,446, down 49. Critical 316, down 19

NCR ICU 35%, up 2%. National 41%, unchanged
NCR Ward Beds 31.4%, down 2%

Location detail:

Generally case numbers in regions, provinces and cities were down similarly to national cases.

A slight exception with the NCR, where its 689 cases were actually a higher 19.3% of national cases, 5% higher than the day before. So for example Manila had only 9 less cases than the day before,, Pasig only 16 less, QC 50 less.

Antigen testing pricing:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/08/...self-test-kits

Raffin

Only 100 more cases yesterday from higher testing at 3,651 although 1,294 were held over and there were 2 labs late...but they would have only added about 30 more .So positivity was lower at 16.5%.

Recoveries 12,834

Deaths 69, 49 RDs
25 Feb, 36 Jan, 5 Oct and 3 going back to March.

Active 96,326

Severe 1,447, up 1. Critical 318, up 2

NCR UCU 32%, down 3%. National 40%, down 1%
NCR Ward beds 29.8%, down 1.6%

Location data:

NCR down to 548 and 15.0% of all cases. Its biggest cities all down.

CL up only a little and region 4A up by 68 to 436 cases.
Ilocos up by 69 to 217. Cagayan up a little.
Bicol added 54 to 77 cases.

In the provinces around the NCR only Laguna added significantly more...17 to reach 100.

In the Visayas WV added about 150 more to 528.
EV added 45 to 72 over the day before.
IloIlo City added 80 cases to 135.
GenSan put on a few to have 45.

In Mindanao the SOCCSK region stood out adding 129 to 277.
Zamboanga reported 49 more to 157.

The OCTA group optimistic on the NCR:

Raffin

Over 900 more cases were announced yesterday from a higher 36.4k tests. Positivity down to 15.1%. But again cases were held over...this time 923. Lately held back cases have been building up, 9,500 this month alone. Thousands more in January. Only a small fraction released and announced. Five late labs missed another 50 or so cases.

Recoveries 7,504

Deaths 94, 47 RDs
Feb 66, Jan 11
17 back to July.

Active 93,307

Severe 1,444, down 3. Critical 312, down 6

NCR ICU 31%, down 1%. Critical 39%, down 1%
Ward beds 29.1%, down

Location detail:

NCR up 52 to 600. All the 6 largest cities with modest increases. Down to 13.1% of national cases.
CL down a little, 4A up 72 to 508.

In the provinces around the NCR all except Rizal added under 50 cases on the previous day.
The CAR up by over 100, Cagayan by 89.
Baguio City up 48.

MIMAROPA and Bicol regions with small increases.

In the Visayas CV stood out adding 223 more cases to 498. WV and EV added modest numbers.
Cebu City was up 46 to 129.

In Mindanao NM added 234 to 362. Davao 154 to 378.
Davao City numbers were up 122 to 185. CDO's by 78 to 102.
GenSan and Zamboanga cities up by 15 and 25 only.

Abundance of caution...but you can have too much of a good thing!
My only reservation on a NCR lowering to AL 1 concerns backlogs. But my guess is that most of those cases to be validated by the DOH come from outside the NCR.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...level-1/story/

Raffin

About 800 less cases announced yesterday, but again a large number being held back for validation, 1,033. Only one small lab late. Positivity down again to 15.7% from 32.8k tests.

Recoveries 5,652

Deaths 72, 52 RDs
Feb 32, Jan 23
17 back to June

Active 91,147

Severe 1,443, down 1. Critical 312, unchanged

NCR ICU 24%, down 7%. National 34%, down 5%
Large one day fall!
NCR Ward beds 29.7%,

Location detail:

NCR down 114 cases to 486. At 12.8% of all cases. Only Manila with a few more over the day before.
CL had 51 more, 4A well over 100 less. Ilocos with 40 more. The CAR with a few more.
Provinces around the NCR all down, except Bulacan with only one more case.

In Mindanao the Davao region reported 81 more to 459.
Caraga had a few more.
In the cities Davao was up a few cases to 193.
Iligan City added a few also, but only to 16.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ovid-19/story/

The WHO pointing out poor vaccination rates for Seniors in some areas.
Personally, I'm not surprised Cavite is low. I waited a long time to get vaccinated last year. Registered then didn't hear again from the LGU. In the end went to a neighbouring one.
Although some may challenge his view on the benefits of child vaccination (see below).

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...at-0-22/story/

Two very different ADAR figures being used by the OCTA group and the DOH.


Dr J questioning the risk/benefit ratio of child covid vaccination. But Philippine figures, if we could get them, likely to be a lot lower for antibodies than these UK ones.

Raffin

Saturday's results reflected midweek testing, which for some reason went a little lower, down to 32.1k. Announced were 3,792 cases and yet again a substantial number of results were held back, 794. Also 4 labs were late, but no further information was given by the DOH on these. Positivity again a little lower at 14.3%.

Testing (blue bars) has fallen off very steeply lately
Positives red bars.:


Recoveries 10,662

Deaths 76, 39 RDs

Active 84,229

Severe 1,443, no change. Critical 312, no change

NCR ICU 31%, up 7%. National 36%, up 2%
Possibly an error made with NCR numbers the day before as they decreased by 7%!

Ward beds NCR 27.9%, down 1.8%

Weekly update later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

But first a brief report on the location data for yesterday's cases:

The NCR, in keeping with the recent pattern of reporting more cases roughly every other day, had 76 more to 562, a higher 14.8% of all cases.
Five of its 6 largest cities were up a little.

Three out of the 4 provinces around the NCR were down. Only Rizal went up a little.

In the north Cagayan had 48 more to 214. The CAR 26 more to 250.

MIMAROPA more than doubled to 90.
All Visayan regions were down.

The only upward change of note in Mindanao was 34 more in the Zamboanga region to 153.

Only small upward changes in 7 of the 9 other major cities I am tracking...only CDO's and Davao's numbers fell, the latter's substantially to 114. Zamboanga put on 16 more to 87.

Weekly update:

There was a continued halving of the national case total last week over the previous one ......actually a little better than that at a 52% decrease.

The NCR total fell by 60% with its largest 6 cities reporting between 52 and 62% falls.

Region 4A cases fell by 61%, CL's by 53%.
The CAR's by 53, Cagayan by 48%.
Ilocos's by 57%.

For the provinces around the NCR falls were mostly around 60%. But Bulacan's dropped by only 29%.

In the South of Luzon Bicol's total fell by 61%.

In the Visayas falls were a little less at 44% for both CV and WV. For EV greater at 52%.
MIMAROPA's fall was much less at 23%.

For all but one Mindanao region falls were between 53 and 59%.
But in the Zamboanga region the decrease rate was lower at 45%.

The falls in other cities were as follows:

Baguio 42%
Cebu 46
Bacolod 60
Cebu 46
IloIlo 55
CDO 55
Davao 59
GenSan 63
Iligan 70
Zamboanga 47

So maybe, following the UK, despite lower vaccination rates, the Omicron wave was not so high and long outside the capital?
Although we must caution about the rapid fall off in testing lately.

Though in the UK London (in green) had a second but lower peak, as later did most other regions.


UK ZOE App data for UK regions.

Bealinehx

Full account should be taken of the much lower average age in the Philippines which may prove to be blessing in disguise.
I read that 52% of this nation expects the pandemic to be over and life returns to normal sometime this year. Sooner rather than later I hope.

Raffin

Today tests about 400 down to 31.4k. The positivity of 11.7% was down substantially on the day before. Announced were 3,050 positives but 624 cases were held back. Two labs late, again no information on them.

Recoveries 5,811

Deaths 0
As usual!

Active 81,394

Severe 1,450,, up 17. Critical 326, up 14

NCR ICU 30%, down 1%. National 34%, down 2%
NCR Ward Beds 29.0%, up 1.1%

Raffin

Some location detail for yesterday:

With a fall of over 700 cases no surprise that all except one region had less cases. Caraga was the exception with just 3 more to 102.

But it was noticeable that the NCR reported only 4 fewer cases, down to 558, and a higher 18.3% of all cases. The City of Manila had 25 more over the day before, up to 125. Also Taguig had 6 more to 43.

Also 3 of the provinces around the NCR had increases. Bulacan by 13 to 71. Cavite 3 to 103. Rizal 1 to 65.

All other cities had less cases, but IloIlo's fell by only 2 to 70 and Davao's by only 4 to 110.

Raffin

Today a lower positivity again from 28.6k tests, nearly 3k less than announced yesterday. Down partly due to the lower Saturday testing. Two labs late, though that is a minimal loss in cases. Held over were 332 positives. The result a lower 2,730 new cases announced.
Results continue to be held over most days. We need to bear in mind that the DOH are now hanging on to over 7k positives for validation from this month alone. Some are still with them from January.

Recoveries 7,456

Deaths 164, 121 RDs
Feb 86, Jan 52
26 back to July.

Active 76,609

Severe 1,443, down 17. Critical 312, down 14
This looks like a rectification of the figures yesterday, which changed the same upwards.
Or a big coincidence!

NCR ICU 31%, up 1%. National 34%, unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 26.7%, down.

Raffin

The NCR with 73 fewer cases than Sunday's but still at a fairly high 17.8% of national cases. Paranaque, Pasig and QC all had a few more new cases.
Region 4A added 32 cases with Cavite and Rizal adding 14 and 35 new cases. Laguna's stayed the same at 70. Bulacan's dropped by 27.
Ilocos added a few cases.
Baguio City added 10 to 74.

The Visayan regions case totals were all down, while in MIndanao it was only Davao that reported more...33 to 285.
Cebu City added 3 to 78.
CDO and Iligan cities each added a few cases.

The NCR with 2 weeks more at least at Alert Level 2. Cases are not declining there as fast as they were earlier this month and if you follow the link up in the article the Mayors are worried about election activities. But on that latter point if they are then they will only get more frequent and larger over the next two and a half months! Medical facility covid utilisation figures are low and look like they are headed further down. A very cautious approach, probably overcautious in my view, especially if we are dealing with Omicron. Which seems likely from other countries experiences, but here good genomic evidence is not available.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...2-palace/story

Bealinehx

Overcautious? Yes I agree but behind this is the unknown volume of undeclared cases due to extremely low testing.
On a good note I see that lateral flow testing kits are now on sale at my local Watsons.