Raffin

Lower testing by about 1.4k on Thursday with a lower positivity rate of 5.3% produced less new cases at 1,223 even when added to by 188 from backlog.

Recoveries 2,400

Deaths 128, 113 RDs

Active 53,934

Severe 1,417, down 7. Critical 298, down 1

NCR ICU 26%, down 1%. National 27%, down 1%
NCR Ward Beds 25.4%, up 0.8%


Latest OCTA data for NCR plus and CL.

If you compare with the OCTA data from two days ago some improvements for the NCR and Cavite.
Here mostly good data except for some CL areas.

Omicron BA.2 variant


Secondary attack in households following one initial infection. A significantly higher chance with the BA.2 variant. From very good Danish data.

In Dr Js latest video the more transmissible BA.2 variant said by him to be dominant in the Philippines. Yet this must be based on the very limited genomic data published here at the end of January. There were about 500 cases found in samples in the NCR plus area which led them to assume BA.2 dominance there. Then just saying it is also turning up in most other regions. Maybe one reason why NCR cases are not going down quickly?

Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

The NCR case number down by about 60 to 285, but this is still 23.3% of total cases. An equally high share for the week with the report for last Sunday. Two big cities up,4 down.

Although CL' s and 4A's numbers both dropped by nearly half, 4A's share of total cases was higher at 12.7%. CL's went down to 7%. Laguna reported 9 more cases at 40. Cavite went down by 23 to 59.

In other regions only WV had an increase, up 12 to 162.

All major cities with less cases except IloIlo, which was the same as the day before at 31.

Weekly update later.

Raffin

The national percentage case fall last week over the week before was less at 39%. Last week it was 51% down.

The fall in the NCR was less at 32%

Falls of mid to the upper 40s percent in the three N Luzon regions.

The CL fall was near to that of the NCRs at 37%. But region 4A had a lower fall at 33%. Cavite province at 26%.

In the Visayas WV reports dropped by 37%, CVs by 38%. EV by 57%. MIMAROPAs by 33%.
Bacolod City had 45% less, IloIlo's fell by 31%. But Cebu City bucked the trend and had 4% more cases.

In Mindanao Davao figures fell by 52%. Zamboanga's by 47% and NM's by 33%.
BARMM and Caraga regions reported 49% and 57% falls.
The SOCCSKSARGEN region, population about 5M, going the other way with a 46% increase over the week before last.
Full vaccination there at only about 40%.

In other cities (%)

Baguio -45
Davao -44
GenSan -34
Iligan +8 (But only 39 cases last week)
Zamboanga -46

Raffin

Today lower testing as Friday was a holiday. Positivity 5.0% from 25.3k tests. There were 228 cases held over by the DOH and one lab was late to submit. The result: 1,038 new cases announced.

Recoveries 1,999

Deaths 51, 44RDs
Feb 9, Jan 2
40 back to Jan
Showing again the often long delays in death reports.

Active 52,961

Severe 1,417, Critical 298
Both unchanged.

NCR ICU 24%, down 2%. National 26%, down 1%
NCR Ward Beds 24.5%, down 0.9%

Raffin

Yesterday's location detail:

The NCR down 55 to 230 and its share of national cases was 1% lower at 22.2%. Five of its six largest cities with less cases. Taguig with a few more.
CL up by 7 to 93 while 4A was down by 47 to 108.
The CAR was up by 8 to 39.

Visayan numbers were all down and in Mindanao only NM reported more cases, only 5 to 43.

For other cities the only sizeable increase was in Davao, up 10 to 42.

NCR goes to Alert Level 1 from Mar 1-15.
Full list of new Alert Levels:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/27/...vel-1-in-march

Notable that in region 4A only Cavite and Laguna go down to AL 1.
Looking back at the OCTA table I posted here 2 days ago Laguna is Ok but Cavite seems to be a candidate for staying at AL 2 while Batangas, Rizal and Quezon seem deserving to go down to AL 1.
Then in CL, Bulacan yes. But Bataan and Tarlac?
The OCTA data was quite recent and maybe the DOH data these decisions were based on was less so. I think the government is going to get protests from the provinces around the NCR kept at level 2.

Raffin

Much lower weekend testing combined with a stable positivity rate of 5.0% and 169 to backlog gave a low total of 951 announced. Added to that 5 labs were late to submit. No details on them.

Recoveries 1,717

Deaths 50 36 RDs
Jan/Feb 45
5 back to June.

Active 52,179

Severe 1,417. Critical 298
Unbelievably constant over the past 3 days.

NCR ICU 25%, up 1%. National 27%, up 1%
NCR Ward Beds 23.5%, down 1.0%

Alert Level 1 guidelines:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/28/...for-new-normal

Nothing about Malls, groceries.

In our area of Upper Cavite vacc certs no longer required.
Check out lines in SM back to normal ie much longer.

Bealinehx

Interesting to note that as the UK is now in an endemic phase it seems to have ceased reporting data which is displayed in the Worldometers Coronavirus page.
Apart from that welcome to the 'new normal" that is Level 1.

Raffin

What they are doing is not reporting at weekends for cases and deaths. They will include them with Monday's figures from yesterday onwards:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274

Btw this use of "endemic" entirely wrong.....the virus in many countries, especially in the UK, is all over the country , there in about 1 in 25 people countrywide, so not endemic.

Worldometers must be thinking what to do about that in their tables.

The government here declaring victory but as you say B keeping to AL 1! I wouldn't be surprised if there are upticks, then what will they do?

Bealinehx

If there is an upstick (increase) then they will have to change gear.

Raffin

That means keep on with their Alert levels...unless they embrace the UK approach of never mind the cases just look at hospitalizations and look at DrJs latest videos on natural immunity. Doubt they will do that, so masks in the street are here for a while yet.

Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

Despite the fall in the headline total and all that 4 regions had falls in cases we see again increases in the NCR and its adjoining region 4A,

NCR 274, up 14 and to a high 28.8% of all cases, the highest for many weeks.
Manila up 29 to 76. Three other of the 6 largest cities had cases up.
4A:139, up 31 and to 14.6% of all cases. A little higher than the normal share last week.
Cavite and Rizal provinces both up.

Otherwise only EV up 6 to 19.

Other major cities all down.

So NCR figures and to a lesser extent those for region 4A are not smoothly trending down. The government/DOH have said they want the NCR to be showing daily figures around 100. That seems likely to take quite a while and there is the danger of an uptick. In the past the NCR has never maintained a level period for long. Although if we are truly at the end of the Omicron wave and no other variant emerges then it may do so and we will see covid fall to levels near to that of influenza.

Btw I use the US term "uptick" to better describe an abrupt increase/change of trend rather than just say increase. A tick goes down then sharply up.

Bealinehx

R,
Thank you for your use of 'American' English.
Sarcasm intended.
As things stand now I believe the most realistic measure is to compare excess deaths and ICU occupation. Sadly an enormous number of deaths due to Covid have not been reported for a number of reasons.
If this measure is used we may be in for a pleasant surprise.

Raffin

Low weekend testing produced only about 800 new cases with an additional 260 from a large backlog making up the 1,067 cases announced. Positivity was at a lower 4.3%. Nine labs late They would have only added about 10 cases.

Recoveries 1,652

Deaths 0!
Yes B death reporting is very problematic!

The problem of using excess deaths is one of timing. The best estimates will come from the PSA, but many months later as they look at death certificates. So not timely for decisions on Alert Levels etc.
Hospital data, yes, especially in the NCR and other urban areas. Not so useful elsewhere as people away from urban centres aren't being treated in primary facilities. In the end the authorities will have to gamble. Those in charge in England recently admitted as much that they are taking one with the removal of all restrictions. Here we do have other countries to learn from and can adapt their experience to suit the situation here. So for example Omicron elsewhere leads to far fewer hospitalizations and less severe cases.
Just today we got a message here in Upper Cavite from a local school about our view on resumption of face to face classes. As far as we know this is not part of the experimental return which started in January, but rather about preparing for a general return around here some time. About time too. I can see at close hand that the modules are generally a disaster. That it is so late in coming is Indicative of excessive caution here with covid all the way through the pandemic, mostly due to the way decisions are generally taken by the government.

Active 51,592

Severe 1,417, unchanged. Critical 289, down 9

NCR ICU 26%, up 1%. National 26%, down 1%
NCR Ward beds 24.5%, up 1%.

Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

Well over 3k less tests but the addition of a 260 backlog gave over 100 more cases announced. There were falls in the NCR and region 4A but increases in the two largest Visayan regions.
The NCR was at 236 cases and its share went down a little to 22.1%. CL went up slightly as did the CAR and the Ilocos region totals.
Baguio City was up 18 to 27.

WV was up by 33 to 127. CV by 44 to 102.
IloIlo City by 18 to 28. Cebu City by 15 to 25.

In Mindanao the Zamboanga region added 17 to 30. Zamboanga City 14 to 20.
Davao City 13 to 49.
The SOCCSK region added 8 to 36.

Bealinehx

From an earlier post from me.
"Interesting to note that as the UK is now in an endemic phase it seems to have ceased reporting data which is displayed in the Worldometers Coronavirus page."
The UK up until 25 February was reporting Covid data daily. It his now five days without any reporting. I wonder why?