Gazza-d

We have been showing vaccine card for a while but what has changed in the last few days a local mall has been asking for id and turning away 65 and ups.

Bealinehx

Gazza-d where are they turning away seniors?

Gazza-d

​​​​Vista Mall Balanga Bataan. Was in there only last week and when the wife went today they were checking id's

Raffin

So Seniors can go out for essential shopping ...but not use the shops in Malls.

Bealinehx

What about access to medical centres located in Malls?

Raffin

Locational data yesterday:

At 1,535 the NCR added over 800 more cases. The 6 largest cities all had more eg Manila 109, QC 196 more.
For the past week NCR cases on alternate days have risen, though yesterday not so much as before. Now at 17.9% of all cases but that is lower than Wednesday's share, at 26.1%.

Why this is happening is not clear. It's not backlog. The options to consider are changes in public observance of protocols, and/or the more transmissible BA.2 variant maybe taking over from BA.1? But the DOH said earlier BA.2 was already present in every region. However the genomic testing here is poor. Also strange that the case rises have come mainly on alternate days recently....last Friday, then Monday, Wednesday, Friday this week.

Alert level 1 later this month in jeopardy!

The CL and 4A regions are also doing a less pronounced but similar thing. They are linked in many ways with the NCR. Yesterday 4A added getting on for 400 more cases over the day before, CL nearly 250. Region 4A reached 13.6% of the national total. Cavite is probably the closest and most connected province to the NCR. It reported nearly 200 more cases yesterday over the previous day.

Going South MIM and Bicol had a few more cases. But WV and CV both had a lot less. EV had a few more.
IloIlo City had 80 more.

In Mindanao cases were generally down. But Davao City reported 86 more than the day before.

Variants here:

From this report the Delta variant still dominant in at least one region:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/covid...bruary-4-2022/

Raffin

Today 900 or so less cases than yesterday at 7,689.. But 6 labs were late to submit and a further large addition to backlog was made. This time 1,649 positives added.. Positivity lower at 23.3% from a higher 40.1k tests.

Recoveries 22,539

Deaths 1
Data system problems again.

Active 136,436

Severe 1,468, down 32. Critical 317, down 3

NCR ICU 36%, down 2%. National 42%, unchanged.

Ilocos covid hospital situation:

Earlier today I had a link to a Rappler report on the Delta variant in Ilocos.

May tie in with these figures:

Ilocos ICU beds 52.6% occupied.
Covid ward beds 43.4%
Much higher than the NCR.

The DOH Under Secretary seems keen to end restrictions:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...andemic/story/

Raffin

.
Location detail yesterday:

The NCR report went back down again to 877, 11.4% of national cases. All its big cities went down by a lot.
We await today's report to see if there is another increase then, following last week's pattern.

Except for Cagayan, which had 40 more cases over the day before to 352, it was only in 3 Mindanao regions where cases went up:
NM by 175, Davao by 80 and SOCCSK by 123. None of them reached recent highs.

Following the NCR the provinces around the NCR all had significantly less.

For other cities:

Baguio City had 20 more to 153.

Bacolod had only a few more, Cebu 58 more to 230.

In Mindanao GenSan had 82 more to 162. Zamboanga 19 more to 163.

Weekly update later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

Consistent case reductions in most of the country last week mover the week before.

The Philippines: cases down by 50%

NCR down 45%. CL by 56% and 4A by 57%.
Provinces around the NCR with 52-62% falls.
All other Luzon regions fell by over 47%. Bicol by 61%.

In the Visayas WV fell by 40%, CV by 55%.
MIM had a lower fall at 35%.

In Mindanao BARMM, Caraga, and Davao all with over 42% falls.
Zamboanga less at 35%.
SOCCSK much lower at 13%.

NCR cities: the 6 biggest fell between 28% (Caloocan) and 68% (Taguig).

Other major cities fell by:

Bacolod 43%
Baguio 61
CDO 54
Cebu 60
Ilollo 41
Davao 62
GenSan 8
Iligan 28
Zamboanga 30

Lockdowns:

Dr J has his latest video on a study of studies on the effect of lockdown on covid mortality.

The Philippines knows all about lockdowns. This is an attempt to measure their "stringency" here through time.
At over 60% stringency one of the highest in the world, even now.



The study finds a weak positive correlation between lockdown stringency and covid deaths:


Dr J does a good job of reviewing the main criticisms of this quite restrictive study.

Raffin

Yesterday getting on for 1,300 more cases over Saturday's tally. Two labs late and a small number of cases added from backlog. Positivity at a lower 21.5%.

Recoveries 18,431

Deaths 312, 243 RDs.
NB For recent readers of this thread RDs are people who were originally classified as recovered but now have been found as died from covid. I've been recording these large numbers for over a year and still find them shocking. For the obvious reason and that no one in the media talks about it. You can only think these people died in difficult circumstances in the community or perhaps low grade hospitals. probably mostly in rural areas.

77 died in Feb, 56 Jan, then 179 going all the way back to Aug 2020.

Active 126,227

Severe 1,447m down 21. Critical 310, down 7

NCR ICU 35%, down 1%. National 42%, unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 33.4%, down nearly 3%.

Location data:

The NCR, maintaining the recent pattern of increases ever other day, this time by nearly 400 to 1,271, that's 15.2% of all cases. Although this level of national share was beaten three times in the past week and the NCR trend is downwards. I can only think it is something to do with the chaos in NCR test labs last month. Maybe they are pushing out their own backlog of late, undeclared positive results? And/or even just now doing much delayed tests? That's a different case backlog from the large one currently with the DOH. But if that is the case we have thousands of late tests and/or results released or being done in the NCR!
Anyway I am minded not to worry too much as the trend outside the NCR is also down. Although there are many more undiscovered cases around now if Omicron is, as is believed, to be a significant variant here.

A small increase in region 4A and a fall in CL.
Small increases in the CAR, less than 100, and 66 in Cagayan.

Provincially around the NCR Bulacan reported over 250 cases more compared to Saturday's number. The other provinces had small increases.

The only other regions of note were in Mindanao. NM was up by 50 and Zamboanga up by 29.

For cities:

Manila added 65, Pasig City 40.

In Mindanao Davao reported 172 more to 334,
GenSan added 80 cases to 96.

The OCTA group with their latest review:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/06/...in-covid-cases

Raffin

The usual weekend effect kicked in from Saturday testing A lower 6,835 cases announced, 189 held over and about 70 cases not included due to 2 labs reporting late. Positivity a lower 19.1% from 36.8k tests.

Recoveries 16,330

Deaths 12, 12 RDs
Continual data problems with recording deaths.
All from Jan.

Active: 116,720

Severe 1,495, up 48. Critical 335, up 25
It's three days since there were large upward changes in both conditions.

NCR ICU 33%, down 2%. National 41%, down 1%

Location detail:

Following the recent pattern the NCR yesterday had about 300 cases less. At a slightly lower 14.2% of all cases.
Only 4 regions had less cases. WV had 65 more and MIM, more significantly, 68 more to 158.
EV and BARMM each reported a few more over the day before.

Cities in and outside the NCR generally had less cases.
But Zamboanga added 75 more to 181 and Baguio 23 more to 139.
Cebu City reported 4 more to 189.

Bealinehx

Well according to the Manila Bulletin things are starting to look up

https://mb.com.ph/2022/02/07/metro-m...december-octa/

Raffin

Yes, agree B, they are for MM.

Just be aware of those case backlogs in the testing system and delays with DOH validation, inadequate testing, especially with the milder Omicron, and the hospital data, which lags weeks behind cases. You would expect Manila to be mostly Omicron, as was London, so that would be good for admissions.
But further away from the NCR not such a good outlook in a few areas with low vaccination rates and some Delta variant around

Bealinehx

Yes outside NCR the picture is not at all rosy. There are access problems in the more remote areas. I wonder if the authorities have thought through the storage and transportation advantages of using OAZ vaccines.
I shared a view with friend in the UK that NCR can be compared to the UK.

Raffin

On the last point London has cooled down a lot lately but S, Central, E England still at 1-2k prevalence per 100k. Great difference to here, even allowing for the much better UK testing. But a similar difference between the densely populated and less populated areas.
From what you say the virus is going to linger in certain areas here for many more months and then the authorities will have to decide about domestic travel restrictions. They will be under pressure to remove them.