Raffin

Weekly update:

Philippines -35%

Regions:

Falling:

NCR 68%
4A 61
CL 43
EV 37
Bic 30
MIM 25
Ilocos 13
CAR 8
Cag 7

Increasing
Multiples

SOCCSK 2.6
Dav 1.9
Caraga 1.6
NM 1.5
WV 1.2
CV 1.2
BARMM 1.1
Zam 1.1

NCR cities:
The 6 largest all in the range of 60-75% falls

Provinces around the NCR all between 61-66% falls.

Other cities:

Increasing
Multiples

GenSan x1.9
Davao 1.7
CDo 1.4
Zam 1.4
Bacolod 1.2

Falling cities:

Baguio 26%
Iligan 6
Cebu 2

So all Mindanao regions and the two largest by population Visayan regions are in the increasing group.

The above data and hospital data support these alert level changes. NCR and some other areas go down to level 2. The contentious transportation policy lifted for them:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/01/30/...rt-2-next-week

Laguna and Batangas provinces stay in AL3. Maybe due to hospital data. The DOH site does not give that for provinces .

Dr John comes out on his recent fact checking by the BBC:


He now thinks it's big, rather than a huge story. I don't (I gave my reasons earlier today) and they are why mainstream media was not excited by it. Listen to him and you will agree with me that he really doesn't like the BBC. Yet the quote they have given is from the ONS, who he praises fulsomely here and has done before. The exact BBC quote from the ONS was "factually incorrect and misleading". He left out the misleading bit on his video page. He downplays it here but he only needs to look at the many comments about cover up and conspiracies on both the original video and this one.

Raffin

Yesterday 16,953 cases were announced....eventually. DOH data issues continue. One lab late and 656 cases held over. Positivity down a little to 31.4% from 56.1k tests.

Recoveries 27,638

Deaths 20
16 Jan, 4 back to July.

Active 202,864

Severe 1,534, up 8. Critical 327, up 9

NCR ICU 39%, down 1%. National 46%, down 2%

NCR Ward beds 42.1%, down nearly 3%

The NCR resumes daily falls at 2,008 cases, 11.8% of all cases. All 6 of its biggest cities down too.
The CL and 4A regions were both down. Their provinces all with less cases.
The CAR up by about 200.

Bicol was up by 70.
The WV region by over 700, EV by less than 300.
Bacolod City had 69 more to 222, IloIlo City had 186 more to 519

All Mindanao regions were up substantially:

BARMM by over 100, Caraga by 381, Zamboanga by 271, NM by less than 300, Davao by over 100 and SOCCSK by 62.
GenSan City had 80 more, Zamboanga over 200 more cases.

Raffin

Yesterday the usual weekend testing drop, down by about 2.5k. A backlog of 226 included, 3 labs late, which yesterday happened to be insignificant contributors. Resulting in 14,546 cases announced. Positivity 3% lower at 28.4%.
However, something of a surprise with the NCR plus numbers...

Recoveries 26,500

Deaths 112, 33 RDs
107 Jan, 2 Nov, 2 Oct, 1 May

Active 190,818

Severe 1,540, up 6. Critical 329, up 2
3 days in a row of increases in both.

NCR ICU 38%, down 1%. National 46% unchanged

NCR up by over 2k on the day before. with 4,040 positives. Although that day showed a decline, the previous day, the 29th Jan, showed another increased NCR number, at 3,625. Going against the recent downward trend.
In the NCR cities all of my 6 biggest showed significant increases, eg Caloocan by about 150, QC by over 400.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...ernight/story/

OCTA is saying "Don't panic".
But I can tell them that on both days the backlogs were only 159 and 226. I am surprised they don't monitor them.
So something is going on....we await to see. Inconvenient for the authorities with the recent alert level change.

Not so obvious, but maybe a similar thing starting around the NCR. CL was up a little, but Bulacan, closest to the NCR, had 133 more cases.

The large 4A region was down overall, so was Laguna province , but Cavite had nearly 50, Rizal 62 more. They are the closest provinces to the NCR. So maybe the, for now, "blip" is for the expanded NCR plus area?

Elsewhere the Cagayan region had a small increase.

All other regions with less cases.

For cities:

Baguio, Cebu and Davao cities each had a few more cases.
But Iligan City reported 120 more cases than the day before.

Raffin

More than 20k less tests yesterday from the weekend. As yesterday was a holiday I expect test numbers won't recover much until later this week. Ten labs were late... they probably would have added over 400 positives. On the other hand 550 results came from backlog. Positivity 28.8% from 31.1k tests.

Recoveries 24,210

Deaths 51, 16 RDs
50 Jan, 1 Sep

Active 176,053

Severe 1,529, down 11. Critical 326, down 3

NCR ICU 40%, up 2% National 46%, unchanged
NCR Ward beds 40.8%, down

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

The Health Secretary inventing an excuse for the two days recently where NCR cases have shown large increases. Of course, he has other more important matters from a Senate report to think about. But with the poor data presentation from his DOH and journalists scared to dig into the data he will get away with it.

Location data yesterday:

The NCR cities reported a total of 1,477 cases, all of the 6 biggest down substantially. The NCR at a much lower 15.6% of all cases. We need to look at cases for the rest of the week to judge whether there is an uptick.

The CL and 4A regions also fell, but not by much. Their percentage of total cases actually went up.....to 9.7 and 12.3% respectively. The provincial totals all fell, but not by very much. The least fall was in Laguna. By only 44 cases.

Elsewhere mostly regional falls, but MIMAROPA had 6 more, BARMM 43 more and SOCCSK had the largest increase on the day of 320 cases to report 774.


From this interesting Rappler article about the difficulty of rolling out vaccines in some provinces.

https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/in...e-2022-part-2/


His huge or even big story has let him down, like the birds did in his garden. He's now saying at the very end of a video yesterday that the figure from the ONS is 127k for those who died from, not with, covid in the UK. That's it, as he continually praises the work of the ONS. He's promising to say more on the death stats soon. Many of his admirers think he is almost a God, so he should get away with it.

Raffin

Yesterday a lower 7,661 cases, but 2 labs were late and 2,371 cases were held over. The late labs would likely have added over 100 more. Positivity 24.8% from 40.5k tests.

But see below about the NCR.

Recoveries 23,392

Deaths 43, 28 RDs
26 Jan, 3 Dec, 1 Nov and 13 back to June.

Active 160,297

Severe 1,521, down 8. Critical 316, down 10

NCR ICU 40%. National 46%
Both unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 36.4% down.

Location detail:

Cases overall were down getting on for 2k but the NCR was up by over 500. At a higher 26.1% of all cases. Five of the 6 largest cities were up. QC by 150. Manila by 100.
So it is looking to me more likely there an uptick has started there. Inconvenient for the authorities if it is.
CL and 4A both had less cases, but not by much.

Elsewhere, Bicol had over 50 more.
WV reported over 300 more.

For cities:
IloIlo City added 176 over the day before to 292.
CDO City increased by 43 to 134.

This guy is a businessman with an advisory government position. Always coming out with ideas. They are often ill thought out:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...shments/story/

old.sparkles

Dr John makes thousands of $$$$ a week from these videos - even the ones full of misinformation.

Can I suggest you stop linking to them where you have found the info lacking rather than effectively paying him for it.

Raffin

I don't give the You tube link to them anymore. But I think many of them are useful for information. Sometimes a whole video is full of it, in which case I might refer to it, more often there are one or two items I can screenshot. Then there are his opinions and interpretations, hobby horses. He has a few. Some are more controversial than others. I'm now at the point where I can see them coming out but I am prepared to tolerate them for the information. I don't care about the money he makes or that he's seen to be a cult leader, a hero by certain groups. I see there's now a number of videos fact checking him, I've viewed some good ones. They come up to view on You tube, so nobody who goes to watch Dr J is short of alternatives.

old.sparkles

Fair comment Raffin

Raffin

Today 8,702 cases announced but 2,122 were held back That's 4.7k for the last two days. Five labs were late too. Positivity 25.5% from 42.5k tests.

Recoveries 15,290

Deaths 71, 29 RDs
66 Jan, 2 Oct, 3 back to April

Active 153,335

Severe 1,528, up 7 Critical 324, up 8

NCR ICU 37%, down 3%. National 42%, down 4%

Raffin

Location data for yesterday:

The NCR case numbers down by over 1.2k over the day before. To 724. However it was a holiday 2 fays ago and lately we have seen the NCR figures rise and fall on alternate days.
Regions 4A and CL were also down substantially.

But the CAR, Cagayan and Ilocos regions were all up substantially on the day before. The latter by over 300.

In the Visayas CV was up by around 500. WV by over 100. EV by 80.

Except for BARMM all Mindanao regions had more cases. SOCCSK added over 300 more, Davao and NM over 250 each.
Zamboanga over 150 and Caraga over 100 more.

For other cities both Baguio and Cebu added over 100 more. Bacolod 18 more. Zamboanga about 130 more.
GenSan, Davao and Iligan cities also added more cases over yesterday.

Philippine covid deaths:

At last something from the statisticians here about covid deaths, rather than from the DOH. Like in the UK it's better to rely on the expert statisticians in the national statistics authority rather than the government, who've always got an incentive to under-report.

It's a bit long so I will summarize:

The PSA look at death certs. Of course there are many here not completed properly, but all the DOH do is investigate deaths with the LGU health depts. The issue of deaths not in hospital, but in the community, is tied in with this. Back in 2020 at a Senate hearing a DOH official said over 50% were not in primary hospitals.

For Jan- Oct incl. 2021 total deaths 769k. For the whole of 2020 154k!

The PSA find covid 3rd leading cause of death going by PCR test. Second leading if adding in covid diagnosis.

The DOH report only 54k deaths so far in the pandemic.

The PSA find for first 10 months of 2021 75k due to covid.. Also 28k for whole of 2020. Making a total of 103k...up to 3 months ago.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/02/03/...over-6-decades

Bealinehx

Discounting Covid related deaths with an increasing ageing populations death rates will increase.
Now the latest Dr John video which concentrates on the Danish experience should be compulsory viewing for all DOH personnel, Senators and Congresspersons.

Raffin

Will they take anything from what Denmark is doing? Don't hold your breath. They've got very controlling here lately, the pandemic and other issues, and will be loathe to drop their Alert levels, restrictions etc. I think many of them will just have to wither away. EG now I try to just walk past the contact tracing desk, not fill in those silly slips. The guards lately tend to not mind.

Bealinehx

Well the contact tracing slips seem to have disappeared in Marikina. You do have show proof of vaccination to gain entry into malls and supermarkets.
The powers that be will use the election to restrict movement and to maintain protocols. What's the betting on level 1 in NCR on the 15th? Any takers.

Raffin

Only after I see the NCR number tomorrow!
​​​​

Raffin

Today 8,564 cases announced from a lower 37.9k tests. Positivity 24.3%. But 654 cases were held over to bring the number in backlog to well over 5k. Also six labs reported late. The DOH gives information that at least 150 cases would have been reported from those labs.

Recoveries 10,474

Deaths 46, 19 RDs
26 Feb,18 Jan, 2 Oct

Active 151,389

Severe 1,500, down 28. Critical 320, down 24

NCR ICU 38%, up 1%. National 42%, unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 36.2%, down 4.6% in 2 days.