Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

A continuance of the NCR cities reporting totals in the upper 300s. Just 23 down on the day before when national cases fell by over 200, and at a slightly higher 20.6% of all cases. Four of its biggest cities with more cases..
Region 4A had 2 more cases to report and at a higher 13.6% of all cases. But in two of its provinces Cavite had 31 more and Rizal a few more. Both have substantial populations commuting daily to the NCR.

Elsewhere the CAR had 10 more to 80, WV 15 more at 184.
MIMAROPA and Bicol each a few more.

Case changes in other cities were small.

Raffin

Today 1,427 new cases announced, but again a substantial addition to backlog ignored by the media.....448 positive cases. Five labs were late, but they were likely to have added only about 10 cases. Positivity 7.5% from a lower 25k tests from Saturday.

Recoveries 3,269

Deaths 79, 52 RDs
Feb 66, Jan 8
5 back to Sep

Active 58,657

Severe 1,422, up 1. Critical 304, down 1

NCR ICU 28%, up 1. National 30%, unchanged
NCR Ward beds 25.7%, up 0.7%

Raffin

Yesterday's location detail

Nearly 300 less cases and only one region reported more cases. The Cagayan Valley with 34 more cases to 82.

However the NCR had only 37 fewer cases, down to 332 new cases, and a higher percentage share of the national total at 23.3%. Five of its 6 largest cities reported less cases. The exception was QC with 23 more cases to 68.

Around the NCR the CL region had only 5 less cases so it had an increased share of the total at 9.2%.
Whereas region 4A reported 60 less cases and its share of the national case total fell to 12.1%.

There were small upward changes in case numbers in Bacolod, CDO, Cebu and Davao Cities.

A poor outlook for voters on Election Day.!
The Comelec requiring face shields to be worn by them for the "New Normal" in Polling Stations.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=2

Raffin

Today only 18.1k tests from low Sunday labs. Positivity down to 6.4%. Giving 1,019 new cases announced after 144 were held back for further validation. Five labs late to submit but with only about 5 cases lost.

Recoveries 2,988

Deaths 13, all RDs
Feb 6, Jan 5
2 back to Sep

Active 56,668

Severe 1,425, up 3. Critical 304, unchanged

NCR ICU 26%, down 2%. National 29%. down 1%
NCR Ward beds 25.9%, up 0,2%

Raffin

Location detail yesterday:

The NCR was down by 123 cases to 209, though that is still 20.5% of national cases.
All but one of the 6 biggest cities had less cases. Paranaque reported the same number.

Both the CL and 4A regions had many less cases, but 4A not so much and it had a slightly greater percentage of national cases,12.7 from 12.1. Cavite with only 4 less cases..

The CAR had 22 more cases to 59.
Baguio City had a few more.

In the VIsayas notable that Bacolod City had just the one case yesterday.

NM was the only other region to have more cases, 8 more to 55.
There CDO City nearly doubled its cases to report 36.

There seems to be a move to downgrade the NCR to AL1, but they're worried about Seniors vaccination rates.
Unclear to me why it is low. Maybe as they were one of the first groups organization wasn't good in some areas?

But the Seniors I see outside are nearly always well protected. And the vaccination rate in other age groups is higher, except for kids, presently ongoing. So they have more protection when they are at home.

Anyway the vaccine chief is thinking of making a downgrade dependent on a higher Senior vaccination rate in some areas:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=3

Gazza-d

Seniors tend to suffer from more comorbilities and won't be vacinated if they have raised blood pressure, which most seniors do.

Raffin

Yes, some with diseases which affect their immune system badly. But this article from last year suggests you can get it even if BP up to 180/120 on the vacc center.

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...accinated.html

Read also that if you catch covid and have hypertension, say over 130, then it's more serious.

Bealinehx

Hypertension coupled with an accelerating growth in Type 2 Diabetes is a big community problem. A pork dominant diet does not help.

Raffin

Yesterday over 500 more cases from Monday tests at a higher 24.5k. tests. Positivity at 6.1% gave 1,534 positive results. Two labs late, no details, and 38 cases taken from the large backlog held by the DOH.

Recoveries 2,729

Deaths 201, 187 RDs
Feb 69, Jan 118
14 back to Sep


After Xmas an increase occurred. But we must be cautious about any recent decline as deaths data is very unreliable.

Active: 55,489

Severe 1,426, up 1. Critical 302, down 2
In Primary hospitals only.

NCR ICU 25%, down 1%. National 29%, unchanged.
NCR Ward beds 25.3%, down 0.6%.

Location detail:

Only the Ilocos region posted fewer cases.
Generally moderate increases in other regions except for:

The NCR added 106 more to maintain its national share of 20.5%. Increases in all of its 6 largest cities.
CL added 63 and 4A 50 cases, where Bulacan, Laguna and Rizal provinces all reported moderate increases over the day before.


Promising picture....but some caution needed with Cavite.

Elsewhere WV added 89 to 161, CV 20 to 112, EV 11 to 25 and MIM 25 more to 34.
Bacolod, IloIlo and Cebu cities all with small increases.

All Mindanao regions had increases. The most notable was SOCCSKSARGEN with 69 more to 103.
Davao, GenSan, Iligan and Zamboanga cities all with small increases.

Baguio City added 15 to 36.

Looks like NCR Alert Level 1 from March 1

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...livarez/story/

Note: NCR Reproductive Number incorrect. See OCTA table above.

About time something said about the need to continue mask wearing outside as the weather warms up. Can't find anything definitive about it under AL1 except "continue with minimum health protocols". They were stated before as including "mask wearing in public places".

Around our area one major grocery has now dropped the vaccs card requirement in both its branches.

Bealinehx

Interesting point about vaccine cards. A few days ago I went to a nearby SM Mall and the Security Guards had no clue about the VaxCertPH card and insisted on the Stay Safe QR Code.
Confusion continues to reign!

Bealinehx

Now the national press are adding downshift to accompany upstick when commenting on Covid. Sounds like some have been to a driving school recently.

Raffin

Today getting on for 4k more tests and a slightly higher positivity of 6.3% brought 1,745 positives announced. The backlog included was only 35 from the many thousands of past cases awaiting announcement. Three labs late, no details on the likely number of cases missed.

Recoveries 2,045

Deaths 188, 126 RDs

Severe 1,428, up 2. Critical 299, down 3

NCR ICU 25%, unchanged. National 28%, down 1%
Ward beds NCR 25.3%

Yes, the media getting a little over excited about progress with large numbers of cases in backlog and undetected. But medical facilities are under less pressure in the NCR and in most other areas of the country, with the exception of Davao, in the worst situation, together with BARMM. The CAR and Cagayan valley to a lesser extent. So they can justify a downgrade of Alert levels in most areas.
But to make a motoring analogy the vehicle is slowing down but emitting black smoke from the exhaust representing the increasing covid death toll here. Remembering that most people who die are not in primary hospitals. Nearly 400 announced in just the last two days. Given the long data delays here these must surely still mostly be Delta, not Omicron? We get no information on that.
But Omicron has almost certainly now become dominant here and will cause some hospitalizations and deaths. The general conclusion from studies has been that Omicron, though much more transmissible, causes less hospitalization and is less severe.
Dr John's latest video looks at some questions on immunity:


One question was answered by a well reviewed SA study of Omicron relative to Delta.

In SA compared to Delta cases increased at the peak by 117% but hospitalizations by only 56%.
The study also looked at a UK study. Allowing for undetected infections in both countries the authors say from both studies that roughly speaking Omicron is causing 75% of Delta hospitalizations. About the same as Alpha did.
They say there are many studies showing that If a person had had two doses of an MRNA vaccine Omicron infection was equally likely as Delta to lead to hospitalization. So far two studies support the idea that these would be less severe cases. But then one study does not.
So for the Philippines I don't think we have yet seen the effect of Omicron on mortality due to the data delays and lack of primary hospital care.
SA had a much higher prior infection rate than here, probably superior in protection to our higher, though patchy, vaccination rate. Though we probably have an immunity edge with a younger population. Still, even if Omicron hospitalizations here are less than 75% of Delta's and they are milder, I think deaths will still be a continuing poor metric for covid here over the next few months, due mainly to our lack of proper medical facilities.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.10...2_appendix.pdf

Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

NCR was about the same and so fell to 12.9% of national cases. Two of the 6 biggest cities with small increases.
CL cases were down but 4A's went up by 31 to 210 and 12% of all cases. Cavite, Rizal and Laguna provinces all with more.

In N Luzon the CAR had a few more cases at 68, Ilocos 24 more to 79 and Cagayan 24 more up to 64.

In the Visayas WV had 54 more to 215 and 12.3% of all cases. CV 75 more to 187 and 10.7% of all cases. Both regions with their highest daily totals so far this week. Bacolod, Cebu and IloIlo cities all with higher case reports.

In Mindanao the Davao region with 63 more to 149, the highest so far this week. Mirrored in Davao City with 22 more and up to 60.

Raffin

Today 1,671 new cases announced from just over 200 less tests. Positivity down to 5.6% and a sizeable 1,008 cases taken from backlog. Three labs late but no details on these.

Recoveries 1,586

Deaths 59, 41 RDs
Feb 30, 11 Jan
18 back to July

Active 55,140

Severe 1,424, down 4. Critical 299, unchanged

NCR ICU 27%, up 2%. National 28%, unchanged
NCR Ward Beds 24.6%, down 0.7%

Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

National cases down but NCR cases up......only by 31 but at 344 the second highest number of the week so far. At 20.6% of total cases. Three of its 6 largest cities with a few more, the others with one or two less cases.

CL cases up by 44 to 156, the highest so far this week. But 4A cases up only by 10. Although possibly significant together with the NCR figure was that Cavite province was up by 18 to 82.

The CAR reported 19 more to 87, the highest of the week so far.

All Visayan regions with substantially less except MIMAROPA with 13 more to 29.

In Mindanao Zamboanga and SOCCSKSARGEN had small increases.

In other cities:

Baguio up by 23 to 44.
Cebu up 13 to 71
GenSan up 5 to 16.
CDO up 3 to 26