Raffin

New cases for Xmas Eve 310, but 90 cases held over. Five labs late. No details on their missed contribution. Positives a somewhat higher 1.4% on 28.6k tests. A similar number in preparation.


The OCTA group recently reporting an uptick in the NCR.

Recoveries 227

Deaths 69, 57 RDs

Active 9,321

Severe 1,796, down 1. Critical 375, down 2

NCR ICU 20%. National 19%.
Both unchanged.

Raffin

The Xmas day DOH announcement gives 433 cases and a further increase in positivity to 1.6% from 25.8k tests. Included a backlog of 20 cases. Five labs were too late to submit.

Recoveries 369

Deaths 137, 129 RDs

Active 9,376

Severe 1,727, down 69. Critical 374, down 1

NCR ICU 19%, down 1%. National 18%, down 1%

Vaccination progress:

As of Dec 20 40.9% of Philippines population fully vaccinated (Johns Hopkins)
(Indonesia: 40.4%)

Regional progress (ABS-CBN Dec 19).


Some of the white shaded areas hit by Odette.


From the UK ZOE app data. Dr John explains the need for large quantities of free lateral flow tests to be available. But Britain is apparently struggling to provide them. The Philippines has time on its side but I very much doubt they will provide anywhere near enough, leaving people to find at least P1,500. And they will probably need two.

Raffin

Weekly update:

For the Philippines as a whole the cumulative figures show a 1,195 case increase.
But using daily figures for the 17 regions combined there is an increase of 1,854. It was 2,382 last week.
Obviously large adjustments are being made by the DOH in the cumulative figures, so the 22% improvement based on daily figures seems to be the best indicator of progress,

So continued general improvement except for a significant case increase in the NCR and some signs of slowing improvement in the regions bordering it.

The good figures for Caraga, EV, MIM and CV may not yet reflect cases due to onslaught of Typhoon Odette.

Improvements in:

NM 61%
Caraga 59
EV 58
SOCCSK 55
MIM 54
CV 50
BARMM 50
IL 46
Bic 41
CAR 36
Cag 25
Dav 22
WV 21
CL 12
4A 18
Zam 8

NCR +12%

Cases in the 6 most populated NCR cities were:

Manila 158
QC 92
Caloocan 41
Pasig 38
Taguig 36
Paranaque 32

Provinces around the NCR:

Cavite 85
Rizal 75
Bulacan 45
Laguna 32

Cities: (north to south)

Baguio 8
Cebu 5
Bacolod 33
CDO 8
Iligan 4
GenSan 9
Davao 26
Zamboanga 65

For cities and provinces comparisons based on daily data will start next week.

Raffin

Strangely today's new cases totaled the same as yesterday's, 433. Six labs submitted late and 11 cases came from backlog. Positivity a raised 2.0% from 21.1k tests.

Recoveries 283

Deaths 13, 9 RDs.
Only 5 from December and the remaining 8 went back until March.

Active 9,522

Severe 1,777, up 50. Critical 374 unchanged

NCR ICU 17%, down 2%

Raffin

Dr John with a Boxing Day video giving more evidence on Omicron in the UK and the US.:


He didn't agree with the bracketed statement as much less likely to be hospitalised with Omicron.!

UK data showing 9-10 days with Omicron average time to hospitalisation compared to 17 with Delta. He seems to see that as an advantage. I suppose as less risk of it being ignored with increased virus spread. But with admission to hospital much more difficult here and taking longer is it so much of an advantage?


Green Delta, Purple Omicron. Showing clearly Omicron displacing Delta. One in ten have it there!

Of most concern for countries like the Philippines with lower infection and vaccination is that he says for unvaccinated people who haven't been infected the severity of Omicron is only 11% less than from Delta.

Raffin

Cases announced today were 318, including 5 from backlog. Late lab submissions from 26 labs would likely have added only another 3 or so cases. Positivity up again to 2.2% from 14.2k tests.

Recoveries 255

Deaths 11, 5 RDs
9 from Dec, 2 from Oct
Death reports much lower than earlier in the month so obviously a backlog is building up.

Active 9,579

Severe 1,777, Critical 374
Both unchanged and also obviously not being reported promptly this holiday season.

NCR ICU 21%, up 4%. National ICU 18%, up 1%

Raffin

Over 100 more cases declared today at 421 and 50 positives were held over. Sixteen labs were late. Statistics from the DOH suggest these late labs would have increased the total by about 10. Positivity at a higher 2.6% from 18.1k tests.

Recoveries 248

Deaths 2 only . Both RDs.
Both from Sep.

Active 9,750

Severe 1,778. up 1 Critical 374, unchanged.
Obviously no one counted recently.

NCR ICU 21%, National 18%
Unchanged.

The DOH again changing how covid data published:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/12/27/...on-covid-cases

You can believe this is all about better presentation to the public or more cover up from the DOH, what with cases starting to rise again, the prospect of Omicron in the New Year and the continued mess up over covid deaths data. It is certainly not true that the DOH tracker site gives all the information that are presently shown on DOH bulletins. Let's see next week.

Bealinehx

We can assume what semblance of transparency in reporting the facts is about C-19 is to be blown out of the window. Anyone with half a brain will expect a rise in new cases during and after the festive season. Social distancing does not exist nowadays.
I have an impression that with omicron and its apparent less virulent effects the authorities are taking the view of letting it take its natural course, perhaps citing the UK as a precedent. After all it is all about politics, particularly in the first third of 2022.
It is so good to be an old cynic LOL

Raffin

Cases from the most recent testing at 1,243, but only 889 announced leaving 354 held over for later announcement. Only one lab late. Positivity up by nearly 2% to 4.5% from 27.6k tests.

OCTA saying that the uptick "possibly" due to Omicron. The alternative explanation would be a delta driven increase due to increased pre Xmas movement starting 2 weeks or so ago. I suppose both could be operating.

Recoveries 214

Deaths 28, 25 RDs

Active 10,419

Severe 1,778. Critical 374
Both unchanged.

NCR ICU 23%, up 2%. National 20%, up 2%

The possibility that rapid tests are less reliable with Omicron:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/scit...story/?just_in

Raffin

An exceptional rise in NCR cases announced yesterday to 572, that's 64% of the national daily total. Those of you reading my daily posts as recently as one month ago may recall the daily NCR contribution to have been around 20%. Then going further back 25-30% was sometimes seen.

Previous daily figures 176,130,218,201,129,95,80...

Yesterday's high report may have included some backlog but it is clear a significant uptick started about 2 weeks before Xmas.

Manila 191. QC 97

Signs of a gentle increase in regions 4A and Central Luzon too:

4A 87 yesterday, then 55,51,42,35
CL 54,40,28,34,25

Raffin

Today 1,623 cases announced with 419 held over. Three labs late. Positivity up to 6.6% from 30.9k tests.

Recoveries 256

Deaths 133, 126 of them RDs.
4 in Dec, 6 Nov, 14 Oct, 20 Sep, 23 Aug
The rest. 66, back to July 2020.

Active 11,772

Severe 1,771. down 7. Critical 372, down 2

NCR ICU 24%, up 1%.National 20% unchanged.


From the latest Dr John video about UK hospital data. Hospitals test 100% of patients for covid.

Raffin

The NCR accounted for two thirds of the announced cases for Rizal day. A startling 1,092. We must also bear in mind that the DOH has been holding on to over 800 cases from the last 3 days. As yet we don't know if any are from the NCR. Of the six largest NCR cities I am tracking daily only Paranaque City had a relatively small increase over the previous day, of about 30%. The others averaged a doubling of cases.

So as the increases are so widespread I would think it is just due to all the holiday movement and gatherings rather than Omicron, which would likely show up only in one or two areas at first.

Last year:


A similar holiday increase which was followed by the alpha variant driven surge.

Raffin

The New Year's Eve total up by over 1,300 on the day before's, to 2,961. There were held over cases for the 4th day running at 185. Positivity back over 10% from 30.5k tests.

Recoveries 256

Deaths 132, 117 RDs
9 from Dec, 3 Nov, 24 Oct.
The remaining 96 stretch back into 2020!
There were 22 from last year!

Active 14,233

Severe 1,701, down 70. Critical 342, down 30

NCR ICU 24%. National 20%
Both unchanged.

Some good news to end the covid year on:


The T cell response from prior infection and vaccination is good against Omicron, according to a recent SA paper. Not peer reviewed yet, but approved by Dr John!

old.sparkles

For clarity, Dr John is not a medical doctor - he has a phd in nursing education.

Not everything he says on his youtube channel is accurate so always good to take info from a variety of sources.

Raffin

Yes I know. He's made a few errors.

Bui it's not his finding, it's from researchers at the university of Cape Town, the number 1 ranked Uni in SA.

I think that justifies him presenting its findings to his viewers, the majority non medically qualified who can't or don't have the time to look around for other sources. If there's a radical change after peer review I am confident he will tell us.