Raffin

The relevance of cases now?

Denmark the first in Europe to drop all restrictions. Like Britain a large number of cases. Yesterday 28k for a population of 6M. Denmark's increasing but UKs falling.

The latest Dr J video, again on the immunity given by infection.
As it happens a Danish study included.





Denmark cases.

High vaccination rate. About 1,000 people in hospital with covid (UK 12k).

Raffin

Only 20.1k tests from Sunday contributing greatly to the low case number of 2,010. Positivity 10.4%. Down a little. Five labs late, no info on these given lately to make an estimate of cases missed.. Also 79 cases held over.

Recoveries: 6,293

Deaths 52, 34 RDs

Active 72,305

Severe 1,441, down 2. Critical 312, unchanged.
ICU and Ward Beds N/A data tomorrow.

Raffin

Yesterday's location data:

But first yesterday's hospital data:

NCR ICU 32%, up 1%. National 34%, unchanged
NCR Ward beds 26.5%, down 0.2%

The NCR down 184 cases to 301 at 15.0% of the national total. Still, the percentage fall was below the national fall in cases.
Notable was the very low weekend testing at 20.1k. individuals.


Compared to last year testing falling more rapidly lately.

Region 4A's number fell by 115 to 230. CL's fell by only 19 to 156.
The CAR had 24 more cases to 179.

Otherwise falls in all other regions except MIMAROPA, which had a few more, up to 25.

All cities in the NCR and elsewhere except CDO, GenSan and Zamboanga had less cases.
The latter two cities had only a handful more, but CDO City reported 69 more over the day before, to 95.

Vaccination rates by region:


ABS-CBN data from this map suggests only 7 regions have not yet met the 70% full vaccination target. And that 4 of them are very close. Of the other 3 two are in Mindanao...BARMM is well behind at 28% and SOCCSKSARGEN is at 61%. Then Central Visayas is quite close at 65%.

However I do wonder how accurate their population figures are.

In my local area I have previously reported here greatly reduced footfall in our local Savemore, and this was continued yesterday. No waiting at the checkout, whereas last year that was an annoying regular experience there. They have required a full vaccination cert for some weeks now
Other local groceries, also asking to see the vaccs cert, but which cater more for car using shoppers, don't seem to be affected so much. Judging from a few shops in them lately.

Does anyone else notice this in their neck of the woods?

Raffin

Today 2,671 cases announced from 25.6k tests, over 5k more than yesterday. Some were taken from the large backlog...but only 211. Six labs were late to submit, likely to account for only about 45 cases lost, say the DOH.

Recoveries 6,130

Deaths 77, 62 RDs
Feb 32, Jan,16
29 back to May.

Active: 68,629

Severe 1,433. down 8. Critical 309, down 3

NCR ICU 32%, unchanged. National 33%, down 1%

How are our SE neighbours doing?


Ordered by new cases yesterday. The Philippines was in 24th place.

Raffin

Yesterday was another one of those days where the NCR posted a surprisingly high total even though it has been trending down...an increase of 331 over the day before. More than doubled. A higher 23.1% of the national total. A backlog of 211 was added yesterday, so that could be a big reason. Since 5 of its six largest cities had increases it seems unlikely cases were delayed in testing centers. Or it could be the start of an uptick. We will need to wait a few days to see.

Around the NCR CL increased by 133 to 289, 4A by 99 to 327. All provinces around the NCR had moderate increases.
Ilocos had about 50 more to 138.

In the Visayas MIMAROPA had 53 more to 78, WV 65 more to 270, EV 21 more 48.

The only region in Mindanao to report substantially more cases over the day before was SOCCSKSARGEN with 48 more to a much higher than lately 154.

In other cities: IloIlo stood out having 29 more to 64.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-alert-level-2

Davao City and 3 provinces downgraded to AL2. Two other Davao provinces remain at AL3.
As usual Davao City getting lenient treatment. Its "34 on Tuesday" grew to 48 yesterday. This week, going back 80,97,110.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/0...-cases-falling

The WHO has got a point with low testing. The Philippines is at 145th position in the world on tests per head. Indonesia is only a few places up. Only Malaysia and, of course, Singapore, have high placings. Lately Omicron symptoms, being similar to the common cold, are probably a lot to with the latest falls in testing here.

Deaths are definitely the worst aspect of the pandemic here and the Philippines health system will be poorly judged, along with many other country's, when the pandemic is reviewed internationally.

Raffin

Today 2,196 new cases announced and 655 were held over for further validation. There were 3 late labs not included and they were estimated to have about 40 cases. Positivity at 9.7% from 29.4k tests.

Recoveries: 4,409

Deaths 107, 79 RDs
Feb 70, Jan 19
18 back to June

Active: 66,588

Severe 1,428, down 3. Critical 309, unchanged

NCR ICU 31%, down 1%. National 31%, down 2%
NCR Ward beds 24.8%, down 1.7%

Raffin

After a rise the day before yesterday's NCR figure for new cases fell by 37% to 398. That's a much lower 18.1% of all cases.
We will see from the final two day's figures whether there is any stalling in the fall or even an uptick in cases starting there.
Paranaque was the only one of the 6 biggest to report an increase, only 3 more at 28.

Both the CL and 4A reports were much lower.
All provinces around the NCR had much lower numbers.

Cagayan was up 12 to 64. Baguio City up 7 to 31.


In the Visayas CV added 60 to 231, WV 38 to 308.
Cebu City added 25 to 55, Bacolod 7 to 21.

In Mindanao NM added 45 to 108, Davao region 48 to 176.
CDO City reported 34 more at 39, Davao City 15 to 63.
GenSan and Iligan cities had small increases over the day before.

Bealinehx

Why use uptick? Was it suppose be that terrible word upstick, which seems have replaced increase. I aplogise for my rant but I tend to get irritated by the modern trend not to use plain English. I must be having a senior moment.

Raffin

Watching too much CNN!
But I thought uptick described a small and possibly short lived increase well, which was what I am guessing might happen in the NCR.. But a Google result also had an example of use as "a small uptick". So it's not clear cut.

"upstick"? Sounds amusing and vicious... a word Corporal Jones of Dad's Army would like!

Raffin

Today only 36 more cases over yesterday's total announced but 481 positive results were held over, making over 1,100 the last two days added to a backlog already in the several thousands. Positivity at a lower 9.1% from 29.8k tests. Five labs late but they were not productive for cases recently ... so only about 20 likely to have been missed.

Recoveries 3,010

Deaths 79, 70 RDs
Feb 16, Jan 32
31 back to July

Active 65,796

Severe 1,422, down 6. Critical 307, down 2

NCR ICU 32%, up 1%. National 31%, unchanged
NCR Ward beds 26.0%, down 0.5%

Raffin

Location data for yesterday:

So yesterday the NCR reported only 2 less cases at 396 and it fell slightly to 17.8% of national cases. So no case increase but then no substantial fall either. Two out of its 6 largest cities had significant increases, the others were about the same or with small falls.
It may also be significant that both the CL and 4A regions had increases. The Bulacan, Cavite and Laguna provinces all having some more cases over the day before.
Further away from the NCR the CAR added 36 over the previous day to 113. Cagayan 58 to 122.
Ilocos 18 to 114.

A suspicion from this that at least an end to the downward trend in the NCR and around is coming soon, but more data is needed to confirm

All the Visayan regions case numbers fell except for a small increase in MIMAROPA.

In Mindanao the Caraga, Zamboanga and SOCCSKSARGEN regions all had moderate increases.

In other cities:

Baguio added 16 to 47, Cebu 13 to 68.
Davao City 15 to 78. GenSan 6 to 26.

Raffin

New cases today down about 300 on yesterday at 1,923. But again cases were held over, totaling 270 , to add to those many thousands awaiting further verification. Also 6 labs were late to submit. No details on them.

Recoveries 5,158

Deaths 198, 176 RDs
No detail on timing.
An appalling total and doubly so as the great majority were lost in the system.
It doesn't bear thinking about where and how they died.

Active 62,533

Severe 1420, down 2. Critical 304, down 3
Gentle declines in both categories over the past 6 days.

NCR ICU 26%, down 6%. National 29%, down 2%
NCR Ward beds 25.5%, down 0.5%.
Good progress with medical facilities, surely by now indicating the dominance of Omicron here?

Raffin

Yesterday's location detail:

For the third day running the NCR cities reported nearly 400 daily cases, at 392. A higher 20.4% of national cases. Three of the largest had small increases, one was the same and two fell slightly. So as we go into those days affected by the usual lower weekend testing it looks like the downward NCR trend has stalled for now at least. Numbers soon around 100 per day have been mooted. The government and some experts will be disappointed if this continues for long.
Some less strong evidence for this also from the surrounding regions of 4A and CL. Both seem to have flatlined over the last few days. CL in the upper 100s at around 10% of all cases, 4A in the mid 200s and around 12% of all cases.
Or we could see a period of instability, as in the UK lately:


Latest data from the UK ZOE App for virus prevalence. Unstable lately. Said to be common after a wave of infection starts to fall.

So if we don't see case rates continue to fall how will the authorities react in the NCR and around? They will know that testing , in the absence of widely available lateral flow tests is reflecting infections even more poorly than before. But the pressure on medical facilities has lessened greatly.

Not much elsewhere worth reporting except that the Davao region added 37 cases over the Friday total to report 187.

For cities the only thing of note was that in Mindanao Iligan City, with a population of over 350,000 reported just 1 case yesterday, 2 the day before.

Weekly update later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

For the country as a whole this week's case figures have declined at almost exactly the same rate as last week's, 51% over the previous week..

Thirteen regions showed declines between 50 and 60% over the previous week.
The 4 Visayan regions were between 51 and 55%.
Bicol cases fell by 56%.
In Mindanao NM did best with a 69% fall.

The main exception was the NCR with a fall pf 38%. Given its 17 LGUs underwent the Omicron wave first a fall off in the decline is to be expected. However in my last post I noted a recent flattening.
Cases in its 6 biggest cities fell between 34 and 47%.

The CL region was slightly below the dominant range at 49% and 4A further below at 43%.
For provinces around the NCR Bulacan did best at 67%.
Then came Laguna at 55%, Cavite 41% and Rizal 23%.

For other cities all except one had falls between 49 (CDO) and 64% (Bacolod)
Including:
Baguio 52%
Cebu 63%
Davao 57%

Iligan City fell by 40%, but its case numbers are very small.

Raffin

Today the online media journalists getting a little too excited about the lowest announced daily case total so far this year, at 1,712 new cases. But one simple calculation would tell them that there were 796 cases added to backlog. Three labs were late to submit ...no details on that. Positivity actually up to 8.8% from slightly more tests at 28.5k.

Recoveries lower at 3,686

Deaths 77, 61 RDs
Feb 51, Jan 20
6 back to Sep.

Active 60,532

Severe 1,421, up 1. Critical 305, up 1

NCR ICU 27%, up 1%. National 30%, up 1%
NCR Ward beds 25.0%, down 0.5%