Philosophical 11

Raffin,

As the oracle here on such matters what are your thoughts on another COVID surge here? I can see neighbouring countries and indeed across Europe where another wave has developed. Maybe we have had ours!

I also hear rumblings of discontent that a lock down will be enforced after the election here. But that maybe a perceived political decision...if you get my drift.

Raffin

Also South Africa, the originating country has the beginnings of another Omicron wave, caused by BA 4 and 5 subvariants. Looks like they can evade immunity better. We're open here to new Omicron variants as we got off lightly last time. Especially the NCR where it's still ticking over. All this sunshine helping now but come the first rains....

New government won't want to start with harsh measures. But not much sign they are following the "natural immunity" way of looking at things fully yet, so if the next wave starts to grow yes, we may see mask wearing continued and some travel restrictions re-imposed.

Raffin

New cases today 168. Testing 1.6k higher at 18.5k.
Deaths 0 (?)
Active 4,694, up 2 (?)

NCR 73 cases and 64% of all cases. Top 6 cities 52. QC the highest at 14.
CL 15, 4A 21.
These 3 regions with 65% of all cases.

WV 10, CV 6.
The Visayas 21 in total.

Mindanao 26 cases in total.

Nand

The thing is that 93% of deaths from Covid have occured in the over 65's. People from 0 to 49 have extremely low chance of dying. The people aged 50 to 64, depending on their health status still have some risk of dying from Covid but not nearly as much as over 65's.

So it is more a geriatric pandemic, not a pandemic for all. There is new tested data out from Denmark that says vaccinations do cause heart disease of some kind. I think vaccinating should end for people under 50 and now the elderly should be supported to have social distance and help with appointments and groceries. Less would be less deaths then.

93% of total deaths from Covid of people over 65 years of age is around 5 million 700 thousand people! That is so so many.

Raffin

The 93% is a world wide estimate, yes? By the WHO?

I saw some UK data for 2021 which had deaths for a 7 month period 93.4% over 60s. Over 65s would be lower but couldn't get that as the next ONS age band started at 70. In our neck of the woods I looked at the official DOH data....a little risky!...but their latest is 61.5% 60 years of age plus. Well, the proportion of the population that age and over is far less here but it's pretty high nevertheless. Poor health care and a patchy vaccination roll out to Seniors. Old age kicks in earlier here so 60 is an appropriate age to take.

I'm just a little hesitant to take so much from death statistics as you want to avoid serious illness too. Then there's also Long covid. An ONS self reported survey in 2021 had the greatest prevalence 35-69 years.

Agree, vaccination does seem to be increasingly pointless for many groups, though I would be careful with the heart disease argument as it is claimed by the US CDC and others that the risk is much less than getting it from covid itself. But here some data came out recently showing large increases in heart disease coincident with the start of vaccination. Can be partly explained by the effects of the pandemic on the health system, yes. But the change is large and high underreporting is likely. All the more worrying that a large proportion of vaccinations here were not of the mRNA type implicated in heart disease in young men.

Raffin

Yesterday 150 cases from a slightly lower 18k tests.
Deaths again 0!
Active 4,517, down 177

The NCR again reporting 73 cases and at 49% of all cases. The six cities at 49. Manila the highest at 13.
Region CL up 11 to 26. 4A down 7 to 14. Cavite only 3, Laguna just 1 case.
These regions 75% of national cases.

The Visayas 13, Mindanao 16 cases..

The 9 "other cities" 0 - 4 cases.

An interesting review from the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/61333847

Raffin

Yesterday the national total 175, up 25 on slightly fewer tests.
Deaths again 0.
The deaths data reporting system has had many illnesses in the past and seems now to be in a serious condition!
Active 4,305, down 212

Location detail:

NCR up 6 at 79 and 45% of all cases. Its 6 most populous cities with 58 cases and a third of NCR cases.
Manila the highest with 19.

CL down a little to 21. 4A up 9 to 23. Cavite the standout province with 13.

The Visayas region with 19 cases.
Mindanao 22.

The 9 other cities I track with only 1 - 3 cases.

Weekly report later today.



Dr J reviews a WHO report on direct and indirect covid deaths.

The numbers can be downloaded in the form of an Excel spreadsheet.

All cause excess deaths:

The WHO have Philippine excess deaths at 185,253 for the two years. Only in May 2021 do their excess deaths begin.
Estimates by the PSA I recently reported on had 244,524. Preliminary with 2021 data still coming in from November and December.

Raffin

Weekly report:

National cases 1,227, down 9% on the previous week.

NCR cases 504, down a higher 15% on the previous week. As far as its 6 largest cities were concerned QC had a good fall of 45 cases and there were small falls in Caloocan and Taguig. The Manila and Paranaque figures were stable. Pasig cases went up 12.

Around Manila CL cases reversed, up 33 to 135. Whereas 4A cases were down 16 to 164. But the rate of fall was less at 10%.

In the Visayas WV was up to 75 and by 14%. CV up to 52, up by 20%.

Cases in all Mindanao regions were much lower.

Cases in all of the 9 "other cities" averaging about only 1 - 3 a day.

So national cases continuing to fall at about the same rate, with the NCR's now falling faster and at a lower share of 41%.
But some signs around Manila of future rises. Also in the main Visayan regions.
The Mindanao regions clearly doing well, even allowing for under reporting.

Raffin

Yesterday 152 cases from a lower 16.9k tests.
Deaths 0
Active 4,106, down 199

Location detail:

NCR cases down markedly to 45 and only 30% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with just 27 cases between them.

Regions CL and 4A with 22 and 26 cases. Cavite 12 cases.

Visayan regions with 25.
Mindanao 22 cases.

The 9 other cities 0 - 6 cases.

Gazza-d

A neice has just gone to Taiwan to work, she had to travel to Manila a few days before her flight to do her paperwork etc. She had a PCR test before the flight whuch came back negative. On arrival in Taiwan her and 19 others in her group test positive and are quarantined for 17days. She has now tested negative so once she finishes her quarantine she will be good to go. So the question is, has someone fixed the Manila results and is there far more covid in the Philippines tban they are letting on. Given the timeline she most likely caught it in Manila in the days bofore her flight.

Bealinehx

Every thinking person knows that the declared Covid cases are well below reality. Abysmal testing ratios mask the true picture.

Philosophical 11

Maybe this is why the rumours of an impending lockdown are still rife.

Raffin

Yesterday 182 cases and a lower than usual test number, even for the weekend, at 12.2k.
Deaths 0
Active 3,906, down 200

Location detail:

The NCR up to 78 and 43% of all cases. Its 6 largest cities with 45 cases. Manila led with 15 cases.

CL 10, 4A up by 4 to 30. Cavite 10, Rizal 14.

The Visayas 17, Mindanao up to 33 cases

The 9 "other cities" all 1 - 3 cases.

DOH weekly report:
note; their week Monday-Sunday
Not yet published on the bulletin website, details from ABS-CBN.

Cases 1,124 (1,399) down 20%
Deaths 42 (215)
Breakdown of date of deaths:



14 new severe and critical patients (0)
611 s+c patients (723)
ICU 16.8% (16.1%)
Test positivity 1.1% (1.1%)

Progress on cases.
Data on deaths a mess.
Positivity may have reached a minimum.
Most noteworthy the sudden increase in severe and critical patients,
Going back over the last 6 weeks additions have been: 0,0,1,0,1,0...

Bealinehx

Dr John's latest video on the Fourth Vaccine Dose is quite enlightening. Having contracted Covid and having had my booster do I really require a second booster? Probably not.

Raffin

Yesterday another low weekend test number at 12.1k.
Then we come to election day tests tomorrow and so that will be the same.
New cases: 127
Deaths: 0
Repairs to the data collection system still ongoing.
Active: 3,638, down 268

Location detail:

The NCR 41 cases, 25 from its 6 largest cities. QC 11.
A lower 32% of total cases for the NCR.

CL 12, 4A 18. Cavite 8.
These 3 regions with 56% of total cases.

Visayas regions 23.
Mindanao 25 cases.

For the 9 "other cities": 0 - 4 cases.