NCR llockdown

Old Jun 7th 2021, 11:33 pm
  #901  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

As expected many less new cases on a Monday, nearly 700 fewer, at 6,539. Also 7 labs late to submit. The backlog was smaller at 539. But positivity remains stubbornly at over 13%, (13.3).
Tests were 45k, but coming along are only 27.6k.
Recoveries at 7k.

Deaths down from recent high numbers at 71.....21 of them RDs.

In hospital: Severe 1001, down 8 and Critical 765, down 6

ICU: NCR 49%, down 2% (Nationally 56%, down 2% also)

Regional data (300 and over)

4A 1,049
NCR 809
W Visayas 692
C Luzon 648
Cagayan 423
C Visayas 415
Davao 370

No region reported below 100 cases and 6 regions were in the 200s.
Region 4A had only 3 more cases than the day before but the NCR and C Luzon both fell by more than 100. So 4A maintained its top position.
Seven other regions had less cases.
The other regions with more cases were:
Davao with 71 more
The CAR 70
C Visayas 56
Bicol 53
Ilocos 43
MIMAROPA 21

NCR at 12.4% of all cases.
4A at 16% (14.5% the day before).

For NCR cities 11 had less cases and only one, Pasig , showed a significant increase of 38.
Manila had 74 less.

Top cities: QC 153, Pasig 105, Makati 82, Manila 64, Taguig 62

Provincially in the NCR bubble Bulacan was the only province with less cases the other 3 provinces had more.
Laguna added 74 to 329, Cavite 72 to 283, Rizal 34 to 151.
The NCR bubble had 25.8% of all cases, down 1.4%.

Pampanga added 80 to 186.
Batangas added 17 to 200.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 58, down
Baguio 95, up 57
CDO 136, up 29
Cebu 40, up
Cotabato 60, up
Davao 213, up 15
GenSan 98, up 34
IloIlo 111, up
P Princesa 24, down
Zamboanga 43, down

Bohol 78, down

Angeles 20, down
Tarlac 49, down
Zambales 44, down

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...j?ocid=BingHPC

Yes, the data recording the spread of infection to Mindanao has been on this thread. But given increases in parts of the Visayas and N Luzon plus those in areas around the NCR we are moving to a "doughnut" shape pandemic here. Something much more difficult to cope with than in 2020, when there was one clear epicenter, the NCR. Later in the year the Visayas had a secondary major outbreak, which however never rivalled the NCR's status as the epicentre. This geographically spread situation is now posing major problems for treatment, testing and prevention.

Incidents like this can generate large numbers of infections:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/07/...bo-sa-covid-19

Let's not completely forget the NCR.
The OCTA report calculates the latest R slightly up at 0.74 (0.68 for the week before) and positivity still nearly 10%.




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Old Jun 8th 2021, 10:54 pm
  #902  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a depressed total as usual from weekend testing of 4,777. Ten labs did not report on time. The DOH kindly estimate these could have added about 150 cases. Positivity at 14.3%, the highest since May 4. A backlog of 600 was included in yesterday's results. Tests coming along at 27.6k.
Recoveries 7.1k.

Deaths 95 with 40 of them RDs.
Philippines case fatality rate now at 1.72%.

Hospital: Severe 960, down 41. Critical 734, down 31.

NCR ICU at 53% up 4% (nationally 58%, up 2%.

Locational data: 6.50 am and not yet provided by the DOH.
Will report later.

Bicol, a region at the southern end of Luzon reported until recently a regular 2 digits of new cases daily. The last 3 days 272, 219 and 138.


Bicol

Compare with Cavite, with the largest provincial population less than Bicol's by about 2M and close to the epicentre of the NCR:


Cavite cases falling..

Active cases now in Cavite are at about 2,200 and have fallen by over 70% since April 16.
Active cases in Bicol are now over 1,800 and have grown by 25% since April 22.
At present active cases per M in Cavite at about 440 and Bicol 260.
We can expect that gap to close over the next few months.




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Old Jun 9th 2021, 5:29 am
  #903  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH have finally released some locational detail:

Top 6 regions:

4A 669
C Luzon 518
NCR 489
W Visayas 438
Davao 335
N Mindanao 319

No regions had below100 cases.
Region 4A was at 14% of national cases.
All regions had less cases except:
CAR up 72 to 189
SOCCSK up 64 to 305
Davao up 36

Top 6 at 57.9%,, down over 3%

In the NCR all cities had less cases with most having under 40:

Top 3 cities: QC 127, Manila 83, Caloocan 42, Paranaque 38

For the NCR bubble provinces, all had about the same number of cases. All had less cases except Rizal, which reported 29 more.

Bulacan 157, Cavite 154, Laguna 149 and Rizal 146

NCR bubble at 22.9%, down over 4%

With the fall in NCR cases the NCR bubble becoming somewhat irrelevant as an epicentre region.

Cities:

Bacolod 196, high but 20 less
Bohol 73, down
CDO 53, down 48
Davao 98, down 100
IloIlo 25, down 80
Zamboanga 98, up 27





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Old Jun 10th 2021, 1:21 am
  #904  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A higher number of new cases at 5,462, but 8 labs were late to report. Positivity at 12.6%, down a little from 39.8k tests but a higher 49.5k in preparation. Reasonably up to date with a backlog of 449 included. Although there are always several days lag due to LGU and DOH validation processes.


The number of Individuals tested steady although cases have fallen off..

Recoveries 7.9k
Deaths 126 with 70 RDs.

Cases: 54,000 exactly.

Hospitals: Severe 972, up 12, Critical 756, up 22

NCR ICU : 53%, nationally 58%.
Both unchanged

Regional data: (200 and over)

NCR back to lead with 377 more cases and 15.9% of all cases.

NCR 866
4A 800
W Visayas 561
C Luzon 514
SOCCSK 359
C Visayas 321
Bicol 318
N Mindanao 265
Zamboanga 256
Davao 254

Region 4A up 131 and C Luzon down only by 4 but it was down to 4th place.
W Visayas was third and added 123 cases.
C Visayas in 6th added 105.
Bicol added 111 and made 7th place.
Other regions adding cases were Zamboanga, SOCCSK, Illocos and CARAGA.

Top 6 regions at 62.6%, up over 4%.

In the NCR the great majority of cities had more cases.

QC 162, Manila 103, Caloocan 76, Taguig and Paranaque both 63

In the NCR bubble provinces Cavite added 115 more cases, Laguna 41.
Rizal had 35 fewer.

Cavite 269, Laguna 190, Bulacan 163 and Rizal 111

NCR bubble at 29.3%, up over 3% of all cases.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 113, down
Baguio 37
CDO 70, up
Cebu 30
Cotabato 25
Davao 114, down
GenSan 39
IloIlo 159, up 134
P Princesa 9
Zamboanga 58, down 40

Bohol 105 up 32

Angeles 21
Zambales 30
Tarlac 38

The case fall in many NCR cities is possibly flattening.. (concentrate on the bars)
These are the clearest examples.



Caloocan



Las Pinas


Makati


Manila


Muntinlupa


Paranaque


Taguig


Valenzuala


Pasay

Pasig, QC , Navotas and Marikina still downward, not showing flattening.
For Malabon and Mandaluyong there is only a slight levelling to be seen.









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Old Jun 10th 2021, 10:31 pm
  #905  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

A higher total yesterday as testing increased after the weekend, with over 51.6k tests done. They produced 7,485 positives, a positivity of 12.8%. The backlog included was only 199. A slightly lower 48.7k tests on the way.
Recoveries lower at 4.5k.

Deaths 122 with 65 RDs.

Severe 968, down 4, Critical 740, down 16

NCR ICU 49%, down 4% (nationally 57%, down 1%)

Regional data (300 and over)

NCR 1,139
4A 1,052
C Luzon 867
W Visayas 843
Cagayan 494
C Visayas 451
E Visayas 428
Davao 418
CARAGA 347

NCR 15,2% of total.
The NCR increased its total more than 4A and C Luzon and maintained first position.
Cagayan and E Visayas showed the greatest increases of around 300 on the day,
W Visayas had 280 more and Davao 164 more.
SOCCSK reported more than 150 less.
Illocos had 70 more,

The top 6 regions had 64.6% of all cases, down 2%.

For the NCR seven cities had substantially more cases and the rest about the same.
Caloocan stood out with an increase of 89 on the day before.

Top 6: QC 194, Caloocan 165, Manila 140, Pasig 82, Makati 71 and Paranaque 63.

For the provinces Cavite had a 169 increase while Laguna and Rizal both fell, the latter by 63.
Panpanga increased to 122.

Cavite 438, Laguna 250, Bulacan 164 and Rizal 127.

The NCR bubble at 28.3%, down 1%.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 52, down
Baguio 12, down
CDO 125, up 55
Cebu 45, up
Cotabato 3, down
Davao 255, up 141
GenSan 64, up
IloIlo 126, down
P Princesa 7
Zamboanga 78, up 20

Bohol 109, up

Angeles 41, up
Tarlac 53, up
Zambales 27, down

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/06/10/...uwagan-palasyo

Its not much better there but it looks like MM and around will soon move to GCQ for economic reasons. The government does not want to pay out more ayuda than what is planned under the forthcoming Bayanihan 3. But these restriction levels are becoming meaningless as some measures are either heightened or retained after a move. Then LGUs in the same area can impose different restrictions.
Eg In Tagaytay strictly 20% maximum indoor dining capacity. But only 20kms away in another Cavite Mall it was 50%.

A study on temperature and virus transmission from Imperial College"Warmer regions should not expect to ease mobility restrictions before colder regions, especially because "warmer regions tend to have higher population densities - for example, the population in Florida is more densely packed than in Minnesota," coauthor Will Pearse said in a statement.

Lockdowns have stronger effects than either temperature or population density, his team reported.

Because temperature changes have a much smaller effect on transmission than policy interventions, "while people remain unvaccinated, governments mustn't drop policies like lockdowns and social distancing just because a seasonal change means the weather is warming up," said coauthor Dr. Tom Smith.

The study also suggests "that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to the virus spreading more easily in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes." -- Reuters"

Internationally:


The Philippines has moved up a few places recently...

For new cases yesterday:


A little more than the UK and 8th in the world. Note the Indonesian and Malaysian numbers.


Malaysia second wave.


Cases in Indonesia have been again on the rise despite a much more advanced vaccination roll out than by its neighbours.

According to John Hopkins the Philippines is the laggard with only 1.5% of its population fully vaccinated, 6.1M shots administered in total.
Malaysia has done better with 3.8% fully vaccinated and 3.9M shots, but not enough to prevent a second wave.
Indonesia has fully vaccinated 4.2% of its population and given 30M shots, but facing a recent uptick in infections. Blamed on variants and increased travel for religious reasons. Vaccinations to be offered to anyone over 18 years of age in Jakarta.







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Old Yesterday, 8:26 pm
  #906  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday about 800 less new cases and only 3 labs not reporting. Positivity was up 0.5% at 13.3% from 49.4k individuals tested and included a small backlog of 120 results, So up to date. Tests coming along slightly higher at 51.5k.
Recoveries low at 3.2k.

Deaths again high at 96 with 127 RDs.
Case fatality up at 1,73%.

So Active cases up to 61,345. The highest since May 8.
The DOH said that 1k of those were changed from Recovered to Active!
The first time they have announced a bulk amount of people re-infected or miss diagnosed subtracted from recoveries.

In primary hospitals: Severe 1043, up 75 (!!) and 736 Critical, down 4

NCR ICU: 50%,(National 58%)....both up 1%

Regional data: (300 and over)

4A 983
NCR 860
C Luzon 583
W Visayas 567
E Visayas 543
C Visayas 373
Davao 368
SOCCSK 326
Cagayan 312

Region 4A came back to lead with 14.7% of cases. But all the top 4 regions had less cases.
E Visayas surprised to get 5th place with 115 more cases.
SOCCSK had 130 more cases.

The top 6 regions had 58.5% of all cases, down 6%.
There were 5 regions in the 200s and only BARMM had a number of cases in 2 digits.

In the NCR 8 cities had less cases and 6 stayed about the same.
Only Pasay had significantly more...38.

Top 6: QC 172, Taguig 91, Manila 81, Caloocan 72, Paranaque 67, Pasig 64

In the NCR bubble provinces Laguna had substantially more cases, 111 more to give 361.
Cavite had 229, Bulacan 200 and Rizal 123.

The NCR bubble had 26.5% of all cases, down a little.

Elsewhere Pangasinan added 61 more to 128 cases. Batangas added 19 more to 183.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 180, up 128
Baguio 80, up 68
CDO 115, down
Cebu 46
Cotabato 26
Davao 136, down
GenSan 82, up
IloIlo 94, down
P Princesa 21
Zamboanga 33, down

Bohol 56, down

Angeles 20
Tarlac 69, up
Zambales 64, up 37

Palawan

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...covid-19-cases

Palawan is in the MIMAROPA region, a collection of islands.
Case numbers for its capital Puerto Princesa have been low recently after high numbers a few weeks ago. But they have been higher outside the capital. So yesterday 51 opposed to 21 in the capital. But you wonder about accuracy of the numbers, The DOH report 403 active cases for the island while the local officials say 620. Given Palawan's population is about 1.2M that's about 500 cases per million, a high figure if the local number is the more accurate one.
The town of Roxas has the highest number of active cases at 123. Its population is about 70K giving a very high over 1,700 cases per M

Likely that other islands are quietly having have similar problems.


MIMAROPA seemed to be on a downward trend but a recent sharp upturn.
















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