Raffin

My impression here is that the doctors, experts working for the government and certainly political leaders are extremely ignorant of new ideas on covid from abroad. So I can't see them even thinking about it. But the way vaccination is going here it's almost as if they are trying that approach out accidentally!

Raffin

A teenage boy? Stuck at home, bored stiff? Get your tuli op done free says the mobile lady announcer in the nearby Brgy.

Raffin

Almost 600 more cases announced yesterday than the day before...totaling 14,216. Five labs late to submit and a 627 backlog included. Positivity 26.4% from 51.5k tests. Coming along 59.3k.

Recoveries 18.8k

Deaths 86 with 37 RDs,

Severe 1,691, up 90 and Critical 846, down 29
Total over 2,500

NCR ICU 71%, down 2%. National ICU 73%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 4,083
4A 3,451
CL 1,623
Dav 612
WV 605
NM 595
Cag 575

400s 2 regions
200s 2
100s 4

NCR standing out with over 500 more cases. Up to 28.7% of cases. 4A was up by nearly 300. CL was up slightly.
These top 3 regions at 64.4% of all cases.

Elsewhere 9 regions had less cases, 5 more. Both NM and Davao reported over 100 more.

Top 6 regions 77.1% , up 2%

Manpower stretched:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...E?ocid=BingHPC

Ahmm Mr Dizon actually 442k per day. Over ambitious target. As I predicted.

Also, on the same issue:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/01/...or-vaccination

"Granular" lockdowns:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/01/...ill-up-to-iatf

Looks like the Mayors sense that the IATF might not find this new policy very effective against the Delta surge and will also think the arrangements for help to affected residents might not work and risk providing some bad media coverage. But they may give it a reluctant go ahead as they know the President has all but promised no more hard lockdowns for Manila.

Raffin

Yesterday over 2,400 more cases, 5 labs late to submit and a 219 backlog included. Higher positivity up to 26.9% out of 61k tests. Coming along 64k.

Recoveries 11k

Deaths 148 with 66 RDs.

Active 146,510

Severe 1,612, down 79 and Critical 879, up 33

NCR ICU 73%, up 2% National 74%, up 1%

NCR 5,031
4A 3,389
CL 1,929
NM 851
Cag 776
Dav 719
WV 705
IL 668
CV 650

300s 2 regions
200s 3
100s 3

Top 6: 76.4%, down

NCR adding about one thousand more cases over the day before. A higher 30.3% of all cases.
CL added over 300 more.
NM about 250 more.
Cagayan about 200 more.
Ilocos added over 180 more WV,CV, Davao, the CAR and Caraga all added about 100 more.

Notably 4A reported about 60 cases less.
Zamboanga and SOCCSK both added less cases.

Herd immunity

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

The Health secretary trying to give hope to a rapidly tiring public that things will be a lot better in 6 months time.

Gazza-d

I don't think Duque even listens to the outside world as her keeps banging on about completely outdated information. We are not going to reach herd immunity with 70% of the population vaccinated and this crazy population protection at 50%. Who's he trying to fool.
According to Dr John, I'll leave Raffin to link his latest video if he wishes, scientists are now believing there will be no herd immunity from the delta variant and that we will all eventually get it, vaccinated or not.

Raffin

An increase in cases of well over 3k yesterday.. Six labs late, backlog included 1,744. Positivity 27.4% from 67.8k tests, 68.7k in preparation.

Recoveries 7.7k

Deaths 193, 84 RDs.

Active 158,994

Severe 1,590, down 45 and Critical 795, down 97

NCR ICU 70%, down 3% National 72%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 5,279
4A 4,628
CL 2,708
Dav 1,089
WV 979
NM 923
IL 873
Cag 838

500s 1
400s 3
300 2
200 1
100 1

NCR adding just over 200 more at 26% of cases.
Both 4A and CL adding more, 1,200 plus and nearly 800.
The 3 regions with 62.1% of all cases.

Elsewhere Davao added 300 plus.
Ilocos, WV and EV each put on more than 200 cases.
Only 4 regions with less cases.

Top 6 regions 76.8% of all cases.

Raffin

Over 400 more cases announced yesterday at 20,741. Five labs late to submit, only a small backlog included. Record positivity from the highest test number of 74k at 28%. On the way 67.9k tests, about 6k less.

Recoveries high at 22k.

Deaths 189 with 81 RDs

Active 157,646

Severe 1,892, up 302 and Critical 946, up 151
Total: 2,838
Increase 453.

The DOH don't give these numbers directly, you have to work them out. Only by applying percentage calculations, but this seems to be beyond people in the media as they don't highlight these figures. Like yesterday's large increases,. Looks suspiciously like some sort of audit has taken place as usually the changes are two digits or one digit. The clearest indication of the seriousness of the latest Delta wave.
Worth repeating: most people ill with covid don't get into these primary hospitals.

NCR ICU 73%, up 3% National: 74%, up 2%

Regional data:

NCR 6,042
4A 4,691
CL 2,347
WV 1,198
CV 986
Cag 903
Dav 792
NM 681
IL 644

400s 2 regions
300s 3
200s 1
100s 1

NCR with nearly 800 more cases and a higher 29.1% of all cases.
4A with stable numbers and CL's were down by over 300. These 3 regions together with 63% of all cases, up.
The top 6 regions with 78% of all cases, up.

Elsewhere CV and WV each reported about 400 more cases.
Bicol added about 150 to 461.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...se-octa/story/

The latest OCTA report.
I will post my weekly update later.

Strange budget decision:

https://www.rappler.com/nation/ritm-...udget-cut-2022

Raffin

Weekly update:

For regions percentage change of last week's cases new cases on previous week's:

ZP +41
Caraga 29
Davao 28
Cag 26
EV 25
WV 24
Bicol 23
MIM 21
CAR 20
NCR 18
BARMM 14
Ilocos 11
SOCCSK 6
CL 4
NM -3
4a 18
CV 28

In 14 out of the 17 regions rate of growth is increasing.
NCR from 11% increase last week to 18%.
Three worst are in Mindanao. Two of the 3 Visayan regions with high rates.
Encouraging fall in rate of increase in CV and 4A.
CL small increase only.


For the rest of the comparisons I have to compare 6 days to 8 due to missing previous data. So looks better than it is.

NCR cities:

% increases

Mand 25
Pnq 4
Val 2
Mkna 2
Nav 0

% fall in new case increase:

Pat 45
SJ 43
Cal 25
LP 22
Mla 21
Pasay 20
Tag 12
Mak 12
Psg 10
Munt 8
Val 2
QC 2


Provinces:

Bata -30
Btngs +2
Bul -26
Cav -20
Lag -20
Pam -27
Pang -7
Qu -32
Riz -20

Exaggerated but around Manila signs of improvement.

Cities and areas:

Bac -17
Bag -8
CDO -36
Cebu -67
Davao +6
GenSan -22
IloIlo -28
LapuLapu -46

Aklan +201
IloIlo -19

Boh -37

Again exaggerated but signs of improvement in cities, except in Davao and Baguio.

jaygee68

Sadly,I cannot see how this can't end in the number of casualties (per 100,000 people) being similar to those in Indonesia,for example..I must admit i have not read this thread in its entirity,but is there any chance at all that the severity of the problem in the Philippines is being underplayed by the Govt??

Gazza-d

Gross under testing hiding the true extent.

Raffin

Third day in a row with 20k or more new cases...20,019. Again 5 labs too late to submit. Backlog included lower at 186. Positivity slightly lower at 27.5% from 73.5k tests. Less tests in preparation at 67.8k.

Recoveries 20.1k

Deaths 173, 58 RDs.

Active 157,438

Another large daily increase in Severe and Critical patients:

Severe 2,204, up 312 and Critical 1,102, up 156
Now totaling over 3,300.

Not credible that there would be these sudden large increases in a health system. So has the DOH been sitting on the data or has there been some backlog from certain regions unreported? Whatever the reason it seems we should expect daily deaths to increase over the next weeks.

NCR ICU 75%, up 2% Nationally 75%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 5,102
4A 4,430
CL 2,197
IL 1,413
CV 1,061
Cag 869
NM 841
Dav 811

600s 1
500s 2
400s 1
300s 1
200s 2
100s 1

NCR down more than 900. 25.5% of all cases.
4a and CL both down moderately. The 3regions with 58.6% of all cases, down 4%.
Biggest movement was from Ilocos with an increase of nearly 800 cases..
NM had over 150 more.
Increases of 100 or more from Caraga, the CAR and SOCCSK.

Top 6 regions: 75.3%, down 3%.

The way forward?

No good options so they don't know what to do as the vaccinations are so slow to roll out. Granular lockdowns will be hailed as a new approach but will surely be seen by everyone to be difficult to organize and not to be enough to contain the surge. So it looks like the IATF and the President will prescribe more of the same with perhaps a lighter version of MECQ as the long Xmas season gets going, possibly in some areas not others.
Announcement should be later today.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/04/...lan-pa-ng-iatf

Raffin

Indonesia has for a while been a PR godsend to the government here with its case and deaths record, so poor that it's been labelled the SE Asian epicentre. But lately both are on a downward trend there and here the opposite is happening. On deaths the Philippines still has a much better record per million. But with a younger population and from the little I have read a much better health system. You might also say an easier country to organize than Indonesia with its more strung out islands and larger population.

I suppose many governments, especially where it's not going well will underplay the situation. That's certainly happening here. We've had one of the world's longest and strictest lockdowns and not much to show from it. The selective and questionable statistics the public gets and the non critical media environment. Just look at the latest primary hospital data I reported on today and yesterday. Yes, lack of testing too. Although better here than Indonesia's per million.

If improvements in Indonesia continue and it gets worse here watch for the government spox and President to look for other comparisons locally eg Malaysia, Thailand, even Vietnam, where things are not also going well to counter criticism here. Then outside SE Asia to Europe and N America to counter criticism. The US and the UK.


Indonesia

jaygee68

Cheers for that.I guess that the lower average age of people in teh Filis is a factor that should be taken into consideration,as you say.

Gazza-d

So is the lower average age a consequence of the shorter life expectancy. If so is this really a bonus.

Raffin

Guessing that these two developing countries would have similar life expectancies and they do if you search, about 71 yrs.

But Phils average age about 18 yrs, Indonesia's about 28 yrs.

Caused by the age distribution:


Phils age distribition. From indexmundi.com

Over half under 25 yrs.

For Indonesia just over 40% under 25 yrs.



Effects on covid: the young not circulating so much to catch it and the docs say as you age your immune system doesn't work so well, time to develop the comorbidities.