RedApe

is this the Sunnyvale study?

Here's a broader range of case fatality measures.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7947934/

Raffin

Thanks for the link.
Don't think so....Columbia Uni

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34438440/#affiliation-3

Think too much attention given on mortality from covid infection. eg long covid No evidence but I wonder about the condition of recoveries here.

RedApe

Well I think there were some early on who were looking at the mortality figures and saying it was already endemic in the US back in February...of 2020... and "no worse than the seasonal flu". They wanted to believe that the low number of deaths then really were about what it would always be monthly. I don't hear those arguments any more. From 1976 to 2020 the estimated annual influenza mortality counts in the US varied from 3000-61,000 (2017-18 season...with 810,000 hospitalizations and 45 million estimated infections). No two-season period ever reached 100K dead. There are now more dead from Covid than the cumulative last 40 years of influenza-related deaths.

I think that there hasn't been as much attention on the long-term systemic effects of Covid simply because - not enough data. Long-term effects require long-term studies. There are certainly scientists studying it. Preliminary reports mainly are coming through Europe and the US. Same thing with breakthrough infections...you need cases that are established authentic Covid recovery or fully vaccinated (and vaccine type would be important here). Then you need to parse out whether the infection is the result of a pre-existing infection lying in stealth that "broke-out" as immunity waned. Or if it was the result of a de novo infection. Thses cases are not likely to be
concentrated in one place but will be scattered across the population which means studying them will be much more difficult...especially during an active epidemic.

Raffin

In countries like the Philippines mortality and even serious illness seems to me to be more acceptable to the public and the government here always points to its mid table world position. Anything close to near accurate death data here looks impossible to get. Just look at the daily recovery deaths tally I give here. It is a fact that most deaths do not happen in a primary hospital. GMA give out the weird daily recovery death information but no one seems concerned. Last year some senators here called for an investigation into DOH data. That got nowhere.

In a fast moving pandemic waiting for proper studies is a luxury. There are examples of that with therapeutics eg Ivormectin and prophylactics eg vit D. There is already some good UK data on long covid. Dr John has talked about. But the trouble with countries like the Philippines who have had lockdowns and not much to show for it, now facing a delta surge is that they are only focused on the now and declaring an end soon so they don't want to know about long term effects like long covid. They only need to start to talk about it, ask for reports. But just like the delta variant they will wait until it becomes a problem, one more for the broken health system to deal with.

I recall having a difficult 3 months after a bout of flu in my twenties and there's evidence that covid effects can last much longer than that.

Raffin

Nearly 700 less cases yesterday, backlog of over 1.5k included and 5 labs late to submit. From data given by the DOH these labs would have added about 300 more cases. Positivity 26.7% from 71.9k tests. In preparation a lower 48.8k from the weekend.

Recoveries 22.3k

Deaths 163 and 60 RDs.

Active 180,293

Severe 2,524, up 159 and Critical 1,082, down 10
Big jump in Severe.

NCR ICU still 78%. National 74%, down 3%

Regional data:

NCR 5,771
4A 4,532
CL 2,406
NM 979
IL 957
Dav 899
WV 893
Cag 852
CAR 705

500s 3 regions
400s 1
200s 1
100s 3

Moderate changes, the regions evenly up and down.
But CL was up about 150 and EV went up by over 100 cases.

NCR 27.8%, up
Top 3: 61.3%, up
Top 6: 74.9%, up


OCTA tweeted out some Asian data from John Hopkins in the US:



For new cases red indicates an increasing trend.

For the attack rate, green is low, yellow moderate, orange high and red critical.

Raffin

Yesterday cases fell by nearly 2.7k. but 12 labs were late to submit. No indication from the DOH as to their importance. Over 3k of the results were from backlog. Positivity 29.7% from 50.4k tests. In preparation 51.5k tests.

Recoveries 20.5k

Deaths 222 with 92 RDs.

Active 177,670

Severe 2,487, down 37 and Critical 1,066, down 16

NCR ICU 79%, up 1% National: 77%, up 3%

Regional data:

NCR 4,973
4A 3,520
CL 1,516
IL 1,305
Cag 1,068
WV 870
CAR 745
NM 693
D 682
SOCCSK 633

500s 2 regions
400s 1
200s 1
100 1

The NCR with over 700 less, 4A had about 1k less and CL 0.9k less.
The NCR had 27.5% of cases.
These top 3 regions with 55.4% of all cases, down.

Ilocos gained the most cases with about 350 more.
Cagayan had over 200 more.
Bicol with over 250 more.
SOCCSK had over 100 more.
Zamboanga also added over 100 more to 295.

The top 6 regions with 73.4% of all cases, down.

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...t-Level-4.html

The IATFs new alert level system is being piloted in the NCR from tomorrow to the end of the month.

Five alert levels plus granular lockdowns. The Mayors have decided that all 17 areas should be on level 4. So its not really a pilot run of the system .Just more of the previous GCQ with heightened restrictions. Which should have been more ECQ, but the government did not want to pay ayuda. So under level 4 a few more people will be in work. But just note that some establishments could be running at only 10% capacity. Hardly worth opening.

I really don't think this will control the delta surge any better than what they had previously and as some areas gain more control through vaccination there will be calls to apply different alert levels in the NCR. Already it is admitted a minority of areas are at levels 5 and 3. We are not told which and do they include Manila and QC, with their large populations?

Better to have tried this out first elsewhere in the country in separated urban areas. Implementing this alert system and maybe many more granular lockdowns will just divert health workers from testing and vaccination.

One example of a statistical issue:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/14/...ging-mechanism

Raffin

Yesterday 16,989 cases, 4 labs late to report and a backlog again, this time of 2,217. Positivity down to 25.9% from 57k tests. In preparation 71.2k.

Recoveries 24.1k

Deaths 214, 135 RDs.
Severe 2,386, down 101. Critical 1,193, up 127

NCR ICU 79%, nationally 77%. Both unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 4,391
4A 3,681
CL 1,681
Cag 988
WV 767
Dav 728
CAR 627
NM 596
IL 591
SOCCSK 557
Bic 505
Caraga 554

2 400s
1 200s
2 100s

The NCR had nearly 600 less cases and 25.8% of all cases. But 4A and CL each had around 160 more new cases..

Nine other regions had less cases.
Three other regions showed significant rises:

MIMAROPA by nearly 130
Caraga and Zamboanga each by more than 100.

Top 3 regions: 57.4%, up
Top 6:regions: 72%, down

https://doh.gov.ph/press-release/80%...CT-HUCs-IN-NCR

The DOH putting out this to try to justify its new approach of granular lockdowns, which along with Alert level 4 starts today in the NCR.

11-30% of Barangays? A wide range. I suppose if its near 30% then it could be too much to expect of LGUs, but nearer 11% not too difficult. They vary in population, as do the Highly Urbanised Cities (HUCs). The largest, Bagong Silang in QC has a population of about 300k, but many are small. But getting the data quickly enough is the main problem. It remains to be seen how many of these granular lockdowns will be new ones, as there are already some in operation. LGUs will be under pressure to start some new ones for the DOH to show off. Then the question is what effect did they have over the normal contact tracing without lockdown?

Raffin

Yesterday 21,261 new cases, 2 labs late but a 1,233 backlog of positive results included. Positivity 27.0 from 74.2k tests. Coming along a lower 69.3k. Low for the end of the week. Test numbers possibly reaching some limits after recent expansion. Positivity levels indicate more testing.

Recoveries 13.6k

Deaths 277, 174 RDs.

Active 177,946

Severe 2,491, up 105 and Critical 1.068, down 125
Changes that can be interpreted as ominous.

NCR ICU 79%. National 77% Unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 5,846
4A 3,964
CL 2,510
WV 1,310
IL 1,189
Dav 1,159
CV 841
CAR 603

500s 2 regions
400s 2
300s 1
200s 2
100s 1

The top 6 regions all with over 1k cases.

NCR top with 27.5% of all cases, adding about 1.5k.
CL added more than 800. 4A nearly 300.
Top 3 regions at 60%, up.

WV and Ilocos each added around 600.
Davao more than 400.
The top 6 regions with 75.2% of all cases, up over 3%.

CV had over 400 more.

Granular lockdowns:

Will be without warning:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/16/...ockdown-in-ncr

No cash being offered if you're trapped for a week or more so you can understand why some people like to get out.
Surely they can be offered or at least asked to do a PCR test?

Gazza-d

And its only taken 18 month for them to work out that if they give advanced warming people stream out of the area beforehand. Mind you some governments still haven't.

Raffin

Yes, Gazza and the same thing on a larger scale is they have known for a long time that infection rates are concentrated in a number of hotspots in most areas. The virus is not generally as prevalent here as, say the UK, even allowing for lower testing here. The DOH have said that a number of times. Yet they have continued with blanket quarantines over large areas like the NCR and NCR plus. Now by accident this granular policy is being piloted, but still backed up by level 4 restriction over the whole NCR. Surely by now the LGUs know where to do lockdowns? If they do theoretically those blanket restrictions can be relaxed or at least in some cities where there is confidence the LGU knows the situation well.

Raffin

New cases yesterday were down by about 900 with over 1,500 more tests. So positivity was slightly down to 26.6%. Four labs late and a small backlog included. Tests being prepared 73.6k.

Recoveries 10k

Deaths 310, a record. RDs 176

Active 188,108 highest since April 18

Severe 2,445, down 46 and Critical 1,129, up 61

Reginal data:

NCR 5,156
4A 4,798
CL 2,204
Cag 1.216
WV 1,066
Davao 959
CV 851
IL 801

500s 2 regions
400s 2
300s 2
200s 1
100s 1

NCR down about 700 with a lower national share of 25.3%.
Whereas 4A and CL had about 800 and 300 cases more.
These 3 had 59.8% of all cases.

Nine other regions had less cases, notably Ilocos with about 400 fewer.
4 had more....notably Cagayan with about 400 extra.

The top 6 regions with 75.7%, up slightly.

Granular lockdowns:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ns-dilg/story/

Not completely clear as to how many are new as some cities have granular lockdowns from before.
But QC has 53, so maybe 57 are new. Note that QC is being flexible about being able to leave (see yesterday's report).

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...e?ocid=BingHPC

From Sep 12, travel to/from Switzerland and Israel was strangely on a Philippine red list of 9 countries.
They are now not and 4 countries are left.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/17/...om-4-countries

The Philippines yesterday 5th in the world for new cases. The day before 6th.
Other E. Asian countries are in the top 10, but they are experiencing large surges for the first time. Unlike the Philippines.

Raffin

A new record could have been set yesterday with well over 27k cases, but nearly 4k have been held back from the most recent testing and no doubt there is also older backlog to come out. Looking at regional data those results seem to be mainly from Manila and around. Does the DOH have a good reason for this? As they don't say anything you wonder about their motive. Not for the first time.
Positivity was 26.0% from 73.6k tests. Coming along a lower 67.6k.

Recoveries 10k

Deaths 255, 143 RDs

Active: 184,088

Severe 2,393, down 52 and Critical 1,105, down 24

NCR ICU 77%, down 2%, national 77%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 5,104
4A 4,353
Cag 2,912
CL 2,249
Dav 1,026
IL 1,014
WV 1,012
CAR 935
CV 754
Bic 708

2 regions 500s
3 400s
1 300s
1 100s

The NCR and 4A regions both unusually down. CL was only slightly up.
The largest increases were elsewhere:
Cagayan was up 1.7k, Ilocos by about 200, the CAR by about 350.
To the south MIMAROPA added about 300 more, Bicol over 200 more, NM and Zamboanga each about 200 extra.

Smaller movements up and down in the Visayan regions.

Top 3 regions 53.5%, top 6 72% both down and distorted by incomplete results.

Vaccine "bubble"

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/18/...le-push-to-who

Of course many months away from being possible. The idea to encourage vaccination. good idea as long as the supply is there and breakthrough infections are low. Will the DOH be properly monitoring those?

Thought this was in an interesting report on Indonesia:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...sia-covid-wave

According to John Hopkins about 16% of the total population there now fully vaccinated, mostly with Sinovac. A similar rate to the Philippines only here it looks like Sinovac, with its lower efficacy, accounts for about half of the fully vaccinated.

Raffin

Weekly update

Regions:

Percentage increase in new cases last week on the week before:

The top 6 regions increasing fastest

Bicol 48%
Cagayan 47
BARMM 34
Caraga 21
EV 15
Zam 14

Regions with a slowing increase in new cases:

NM 23%
4A 17
CV 12
NCR 10
CL 10

Philippines: 2% less new cases.

Noting that many cases were not declared yesterday, most from the NCR, CL and 4A.

In the NCR all cities had a faster increase meaning that it should really be at Alert level 5, if all cities to be at one level.
(San Juan and Pateros excluded due to small size):

Mal 146%
Mand 75
LP 55
QC 46
Psy 45
Taguig 44
Nav 41
Munt 40
Mak 37
Pnq 35
Mkna 26
Val 18
Mla 17
Cal 16

Provinces:

New cases growing faster:

Quezon 8%
Pam 3
Pang 3

Growing slower:

Bataan 27%
Bul 19
Lag 13
Cav 9
Riz 7
Batgs 5

Other cities and areas

Bac +72%
Bag +33
CDO -26
Cebu -32
Dav -5
GSan +33
IloIlo +13
Lapu2 -19

Aklan -23
IloIlo -15

Boh +14

Will include some new cities next week.

Despite some DOH talk of NCR cases up to 40k daily at the end of the month it seems that seems unlikely, despite the delayed data. In any case can they test all those extra cases? Trying to scare or declare a victory if it's 27k?
Case growth also slowing in 4A and CL.

High case growth showing in some more distant provinces in Luzon and EV, and in some parts of Mindanao.

Raffin

More than 1k cases down yesterday plus a backlog of over 1.5k included. Positivity still high but down a little to 25.1% from 75.6k tests. In preparation a lower 64.5k.

Recoveries high at 25k

Deaths 205 with 94 RDs.

Active 178,196

Severe 2,495, up 102 and Critical 1,069, down 36.
Well over 3,500 now in poor condition in primary hospitals.

NCR and national ICU percentages both unchanged at 77%

Regional data:

NCR 4,748
4A 3,515
CL 2,372
Dav 1,012
IL 980
WV 843
Cag 839
CV 810
Caraga 690
SOCCSK 664
CAR 615

500s 2
400s 1
200s 2
100s 1

NCR with about 400 fewer cases at 24.6% of all cases.
But 4A had about 1.3k less. CL had only 168 more than the day before.
The top 3 had 55.2% of cases, down.

The Ilocos total increased by about 200.
Caraga's by about 300.
SOCCSK's by over 100.
NM by 250 to 539.
MIM's by about 150 to 231

Overall 7 regions case total fell and 10 had more.
Also notable that Bicol had 76 more to report at 566 new cases.

Top 6: 69.9%, down

Granular lockdowns:

Another 120 or so more granular lockdowns now in operation in the NCR:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...own-ano/story/


NCR cases by date of onset.

Looking similar to the last surge by time to probable peak though somewhat more of an increase.

Raffin

Delay due to a late regional data report from the DOH.

Yesterday 18.937 cases, slightly less but with 5 labs late and 202 cases held back. Positivity 26.3% from 70.8k tests. A much lower 48.3k coming from the usual weekend slump.

Recoveries 20.2k

Deaths 146 with 53 RDs.

Active 176,850

Severe 2,476, down 19, Critical 1,061 down 8

NCR ICU 79%, up 2%. National 77%, unchanged.

Regional data:

NCR 4,952
4A 3,582
CL 2,261
Cag 1,273
WV 972
IL 895
CAR 680
CV 613

500s 4 regions
400s 1
300s 1
200s 2
100s 1

NCR up more than 200 to 26.2% of all cases.
4A and CL small changes only.

Cagayan and WV each adding more than 400 new cases.
CV more than 200.
Bicol more than 200 to 512 cases.
Other regions small changes.

Top 6 regions 73.6%, up.

Granular lockdowns:

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...w?ocid=BingHPC

So if this article is correct there are somewhere between 10 and 20k people only involved in granular lockdowns.in the NCR. A small contribution to the fight against covid. Just window dressing to the Alert system.

As cases seem to have peaked, or are still at a peak in the NCR cases in a number of provincial areas are rising fast
Eg Negros Occidental

https://www.rappler.com/nation/negro...september-2021

Our local Barangay has re-introduced a checkpoint after removing it 2 months ago.

Deaths on the rise:


Deaths by estimated date. Note the long reporting delays by the bars above the trend line from August 2021..