Gazza-d

And the results from the Philippines jury are;
https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...ober-1-30-2021

Looks like NCR stays under level 4 for another two weeks but with relaxations, how's that not level 3. And here in Bataan another two weeks of MECQ, when will it end. Mind you apart from a limited liquor band and having to get the neighbour to give you a haircut life carries on pretty much as normal.

Raffin

Can't answer your first question Gazza as they haven't published level 3 details!

I think people are getting fed up with the petty restrictions. Duterte has made a small start with the face shields but they are still discussing the rules and I predict we will still have to have them on inside Malls and shops.
Small businesses and their employees are the ones suffering the most. Also children and teenagers. The State school modules are awful. They give out a thick Maths text book, with answers to all the problems included! The student writes them out and submits, not direct to the school, but through the Brgy. Some weeks later they get them back.

Raffin

About 1.3k more cases announced yesterday but they included a backlog of just under 2 k. Five labs were late to submit. Positivity from 63.9k tests down a little to 21.3%. Tests in preparation a lower 57.5k.

Recoveries higher at 23.5k

Deaths 199 with 102 RDs.

Active 130,268

Severe 2,736, down 30 and Critical 1,172, down 73

NCR ICU 73%, down 2%, national 75%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 3,905
4A 2,584
CL 1,888
IL 1,189
WV 937
Cag 844
Dav 839
Bic 612
CV 538
ZP 527

400s, 300s 1 region
200s 2
100s 3

NCR at exactly a quarter of total cases, having added over 650. 4A put on more, nearly 750, and CL added more than 400 over the day before. The top 3 regions with 53.8% of cases.
Ilocos and WV reported smaller additions so that even though Cagayan had less the top 6 regions came out with an increased 72.9% of all cases.

Elsewhere Davao added over 300 more.
Bicol, Zamboanga and SOCCSK each added around 150 to 200 cases.


Our local control point pictured early Friday am.

Then, at 8.30am the notice was taken down and the table put back in the waiting shed.
Operated 4 days this week without police as a picnic table for assorted Brgy staff. One of whom did an evening shift. There may have been some actions, but we saw none.
The Philippines officially has about 4M unemployed plus quite a number in the government and parts of the retail sector employed to do very little.
We await to see if they carry on questioning motorists elsewhere.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10...rom-covid-neda

A bleak assessment of the effect on the economy.

The online news sites full of news about the 2022 election...to be held in 7 months time!

The government's handling of the pandemic will be an issue. On the other hand the public's attention will be diverted to the personalities standing, all the maneuvering etc So I'm not sure what the net effect of it will be on how covid policy is conducted from now on.

Raffin

My broadband off for nearly 2 days so lost regional data for Oct 2.
Oct 2 summary here with Oct 3.

Oct 2:

Total 14,786
Backlog 294
Pos 22.1%
Tests: 68,233
Rec 894
Deaths 164
Active 144,061

Oct 3

Total 13,273
Backlog 194
Pos 20.2%
Tests 64,747
Rec 45.3k
Tests in prep 58.3k
Deaths 112

Severe 2,800, up 64, Critical 1,232, up 60 (compared to Oct 1)

NCR ICU 74%, up 1%, national 72%, down 3% (compared to Oct 1)

Note: Recoveries very few on Oct 2 but a big splurge on Oct 3

Regional data:

NCR 2,976
4A 1,920
Cag 1,231
IL 1,087
CL 1,049
CAR 802
WV 729
CV 638
Dav 573

300s 5 regions
200s and 100s 1 region each

Top 3 regions: 46.2% of all cases.
Include Cagayan and not as usual CL.

Top 6: 68.3%

Philippines vaccine plans for 2022:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/04/...jabs-next-year

Weekly up date coming later.

Raffin

Weekly update.

Since I couldn't get the data in time this compares the last 8 days with the previous 7. So changes will be somewhat exaggerated.

For regions these had the greatest % increase in new cases:

Zamboanga 66
Ilocos 43
W Vis 39
Cagayan 34
BARMM 29
CAR 18

Those with the greatest % decrease were:

E Visayas 38
C Visayas 35

Other important regions:

NCR -8
4A -14
C Luzon -9

A divergent situation in the Visayan Islands.

In the NCR the cities (Pateros excluded) with the greatest % increase in new cases were:

Navotas 50
Valenzuala 18
Marikina 13

Those with the greatest % falls:

Muntinlupa 34
Caloocan 21
Makati 20
Paranaque 19

Also:

Manila -13
QC -1

For provinces:

Bataan -14
Batangas -9
Bulacan -24
Cavite -20
Laguna -18
Pampanga +6
Pangasinan +8
Quezon +3
Rizal -12

For cities:

Luzon:

Baguio +3
Angeles +1
Zambales -13

Lucena +16

Naga -46
Sorsogon -9

The Visayas cities:

Bacolod +21
Cebu -79
Lapu2 -41
Ilo2 +12
Tacloban -59

Visayas areas:

Aklan -36
Bohol -4
Ilo2 +15

Mindanao:

CDO +12
Cotabato +29
Davao -18
GenSan -12
Iligan +14
Zamboanga +109

Big turnaround in the Zamboanga Peninsula region from the last update, which showed a 19% improvement in new cases. The city with nearly a 1M population showing the greatest deterioration.

Raffin

Yesterday a lower 10,748 cases which included a 1,281 backlog, Positivity lower at 20.2% from 59.6k tests. Only 38k in preparation.


Fall off in testing..

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/04/...egions-flagged

The DOH still unclear as to why.

Recoveries 16.5k

Deaths 61

Active 106,160

Severe 2,866, up 66, Critical 1,274, up 42

NCR ICU 73%, down 1% Nationally unchanged at 72%.

Regional data:

NCR 1,838
IL 1,463
Cag 1,448
4A 1,283
CL 1,241
CAR 810
Dav 547
WV 425

The NCR over 1,100 down with only 17% of national cases. Ilocos reported nearly 400 more to come second. Cagayan came third with over 200 more. These top 3 regions with 44.2% of cases, down.
4A numbers fell by 637 and C Luzon had nearly 200 more.
The top 6 regions had 75.2% of all cases, up.

NCR cities:

Latest OCTA update:


The NCR, under OCTA's overall risk assessment goes down from high risk to medium.
Changes:
Pateros to high risk.
Taguig and Mandaluyong to medium risk.
So medium risk: Malabon, Navotas, Pasay, Paranaque, Valenzuala, Taguig and Mandaluyong.
The rest at high risk.
These results are based on very recent daily case figures , not weekly as in my latest update. So Valenzuala showing a very recent improvement to go down to medium risk. Marikina also with an improvement , but its attack rate per population is higher, so it stays at high risk.

Note: the testing drop may well be making the NCR situation look better.

Vaccination news:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/04/...nated-vs-covid

Raffin

Close to 1,7k less new cases yesterday and over1k of those were from backlog. Could be partly explained by 7 labs late to submit, but likely its mostly due to the fall off in testing, which was only at 41.7k. Coming along only 40.2k. With positivity just below 20% much too low. The DOH are mentioning the increase in antigen tests as one possible cause but I wonder whether the reason could be financial, that is the DOH not paying the labs properly, which has been the case with covid patients in private hospitals.

Recoveries 12.1k

Deaths N/A The reporting system broke down again!

Active 103,077

Severe 2,989, up 123, Critical 1,237, down 37
The number of covid patients now well over 4k in Primary hospitals. Figures given out last year on where covid deaths occurred suggest there must be at least as many sick covid patients as that in other medical institutions and even at home.

NCR ICU 72%, down 1%, nationally the same at 72%

Regional data:

NCR 1,755
4A 1,305
Cag 1,291
CAR 1,141
CL 754
IL 436
Bic 390
MIM 355
WV 349

200s 2 regions
100s 2 regions

NCR down a little but with a slightly higher 19.4% of all cases. Small changes in 4A and Cagayan. These top 3 regions with 48% of cases, up. CL maintaining its demotion to 5th place.
The CAR added over 300 more cases in 4th place:


The CAR in the 3rd month of steady case increase...

The top 6 regions with 73.8% of cases, down.

Elsewhere Bicol reported over 300 more cases, MIMAROPA added more than 200.

Local report from upper Cavite:

Locally police are still about asking people turning towards the small country town 5 km away where they are going. The place is very much a sideshow to Tagaytay, not a tourist place. Just a few second homes down that way. Maybe they turn back a few of those visitors each day. Just 2 km down the main road is our subdivision where people from Manila are visiting their properties daily, as usual. As we were headed for Tagaytay we weren't asked, but there they were set up at a busy road fork with a "Fight Covid" banner, just watching the traffic go past in the rain.
They've been out of vaccines around here for many weeks so it looks like they are just doing anything, however ineffectual, to remind the public the pandemic is still on.

Raffin

About 800 more cases announced yesterday to give a total of 9,868, including a higher backlog of 1,904. Only 2 labs late.
Tests slightly higher at 43.8k and a further fall in positivity. More tests coming along at 52.9k.

Recoveries only 133
The reporting of recoveries has become intermittent lately.

As with deaths:

Deaths N/A again

Active 112,807

Severe 3,159, up 170, Critical 1,354, up 117
Severe numbers up again by over 100.

NCR ICU 69%, down 3%, nationally 71%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,937
Cag 1,503
CAR 987
4A 958
CL 898
WV 693
Dav 445
ZP 431

300s 1 region
200s 5
100s 3

The NCR total was up about 180 to have 19.6% of cases. Cagayan was up by over 200, the CAR fell by more than 150.
The top 3 with a lower 44.9% of cases.

4A reported about 350 less but CL about 150 more.
WV had over 350 more to give the top 6 regions 70.7% of all cases, also down.

Elsewhere CV had about 150 more, Davao about 260 more and Zamboanga about 170 more.

Latest national case chart:


National cases. Now falling from a peak. The position of the trendline indicating significant late reporting over recent weeks.

Raffin

Late show today from the DOH:

Only about 150 more cases yesterday and 193 held back. Four labs late and the DOH gave information so that one can calculate they likely would have added at least 200 more cases. Tests were up to 56.4k, 18.1% positivity. Higher testing would give at least 150 more cases for each 1k more, so instead of 10,019 we could easily be looking at around 11k new cases.

In preparation 58.6k tests.

Recoveries 7.4k

Deaths 109 incl. 56 RDs
Death numbers for the recent N/A days still awaited.

Active 115,328

Severe 3,114, down 45, Critical 1,384, up 30

NCR ICU 71%, up 2%, national 72%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,778
4A 1,328
CL 1,179
Cag 1,015
CAR 757
IL 635
WV 620
Dav 557

300s 2 regions
200s 4
100s 3

NCR with about 160 less cases and a low 17.7% of all cases. Regions 4A and CL had about 370 and 300 more respectively.
The top 3 regions with a lower 42.8% of all cases.

Ilocos reported about 350 more. Cagayan and the CAR both reported fewer new cases. The top 6 regions with a lower 66.8% of cases.

Davao had over 100 more.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/10...tarting-oct-11

Good news for those thinking of travelling to the UK...except if you have had Sinovac jabs!

Two quite different views on Ivermectin:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58170809

Bit surprised the BBC put this out. Tears into small trials from Egypt, the Lebanon and Iran. Doesn't like Drs Lawrie and Kory. Ends with one case where the subject only took the drug at a late stage. Claims no longer officially promoted in India, yet Dr John Campbell recently reported on Uttar Pradesh, a highly populated state, giving it out.

Contrast with another video taking a positive view on Ivermectin from Dr John:


Another Dr John video with a careful analysis of the UK situation. Despite a high percentage of the population vaccinated not out of the woods yet. A warning to other countries?


Chart from his Prevalence Remains High video, 1 day ago.

Raffin

Yesterday over 600 more cases announced, including a 769 backlog and 2 labs late. Positivity drop to 16.9% from 58.6k tests. On the way 55.6k.

Recoveries 7.7k

Deaths 191 including 128 RDs.
Plus 104 from Oct 5/6.

Active 118,203

Severe 3,192, down 78 Critical 1,300, down 84

NCR ICU 71, national 72 both unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 1,826
CAR 1,246
4A 1,201
IL 1,190
Cag 1,115
CL 991
CV 467
WV 448
Dav 443

300s 2 regions
200s 3
100s 2

NCR with a few more cases at 17.1% of all cases. The CAR added nearly 500 in 2nd place. Region 4A put on over 100 more.
The top 3 regions at 40% of all cases, down.

Ilocos added nearly 500 and Cagayan 100 and the top 6 regions at 70.9% of all cases, up.

CV added about 150, Bicol nearly 200.

Latest deaths chart by date from the DOH:


Seem to have peaked. But do we have any confidence in this data after recent reports?


The after effects of covid not talked about at all here:


Covid toe. See Dr John's latest video: "autoimmunity".

Raffin

Yesterday 340 more cases, again with 2 labs late to submit but included a higher backlog of 1,805. Positivity again fell a little to 16.3%, though tests also fell to 56.5k. A much lower 46.9k tests in progress.

Recoveries high at 22.5k

Deaths 273!

Active 106,558

Severe 3,090, down 102 and Critical 1,279, down 21

NCR ICU 67%, down 4% National 70%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 2,005
Cag 1,748
4A 1,713
CAR 795
CL 790
CV 616
IL 515
WV 462
Dav 451

300s 4 regions
100s 3

The NCR added about 200 more to have a slightly higher 18.2% of all cases. Cagayan added over 600 more.
Region 4A put on over 500 more. So the top 3 regions have a higher 49.6% of all cases.

CV added over 100 more but the CAR and CL both had less cases.
The top 6 regions with 69.6% of all cases, slightly less.

Elsewhere MIMAROPA added over 100 more.


As I thought Dr John takes the BBC to task for their recent article on Ivermectin, which was based on what he found to be an unpublished paper from a Twitter group, lead author a student (see my post Oct 8).

The DOH claiming all is now well with their data system. They have a new back up system.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/09/...es-being-fixed

Weekly update coming later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

Due to an internet outage last weekend I had to compare 6 days with 7 days, so the percentage changes I found were somewhat exaggerated.

Allowing for that, generally for most regions, cities and areas a significant improvement last week, though the mysterious sudden drop in testing, which the DOH observed in 14 of the 17 regions, and not yet explained, has helped. Control measures have not changed much, some restrictions have even been loosened in the NCR. A small contribution may have come from the NCR granular lockdowns. More vaccination probably played a large part and perhaps the virus is at last finding transmission generally more difficult. The OCTA NCR and national R number estimates have fallen well below 1.

For regions:

In all regions the rate of increase of cases was negative.

Small falls in single digits:

BARMM
CAR
Cagayan

Around 30%:

MIMAROPA
Zamboanga

The rest above 40%

NCR and 4A around 50%, CL 45%

In the Visayas:

WV about 55%, CV 40%

In the NCR all cities saw % decreases in new cases above 40% week on week.

All provinces around the NCR had percentage decreases above 40%.
Cavite around 45%, Laguna and Rizal 55%.

All cities and areas tracked here, with the exception of Cebu City, new cases roughly constant, and Baguio, a fall in single digits, had substantial percentage decreases.

Tacloban City had a small % decrease.

Davao City's new cases fell by well over 40%.

Raffin

Yesterday an increase to 12,159 new cases, but 3,592 were from backlog. Two labs late. Presumably backlog held up in all the IT problems. Much of the backlog seem to be from the NCR (see below). Positivity 15.9% from 53.9k tested.


Testing falling much faster than in the previous downturn...


in line with the faster positivity fall this time...

But with positivity still way too high the authorities can't or won't try to find more cases. They seem content for them to present for testing.

Recoveries 22.7k

Deaths 119 with 71 RDs

Active 90,927

Severe 3,072, plus 2, Critical 1,273, down 6

NCR ICU 69%, up 2%, national 70%, same

Regional data:

NCR 2,805
4A 1,709
CL 1,120
Cag 972
WV 887
IL 781
Bic 627
Dav 600
Zam 588

400s 1 region
300s 1
200s 4
100s 1

NCR with nearly 1k more cases. Most of those likely to be from backlog.
The same for 4A with over 500 more. But CL had only about 100 more.
Top 3 regions had 46.3% of national cases, up.

Top 6 regions 68.0%, down.

Elsewhere:
Bicol doubled its cases.
Davao added over 150 more.
Zamboanga added over 200 more.

Raffin

Yesterday cases announced well down to 8,292, but 346 were held back. Two labs were late but only a small number of cases likely to have been missed. Positivity at 16.5% from 52.4k tests. A much lower 33.4k in preparation from the weekend.

Recoveries 302

Deaths 36, 21 RDs

Active 98.894

Serious 3,165, up 73 and Critical 1,286, up 13

NCR ICU 69%, same, National ICU 67%, down 3%

Regional data:

NCR 1,445
Cag 986
4A 976
CL 778
IL 718
CAR 714
WV 566
Dav 346

200s 5 regions
100s 2 regions

NCR cases roughly half of the day before and down to a low 17.4% of all cases.
4A likewise but Cagayan had about the same number.
The top 3 regions with 41.1% of all cases, down.

The rest of the top 6 regions were also from N Luzon and together had 67.7% of cases, about the same as the day before.

Cagayan reported over 300 more cases.

Another local report, from a local T junction, yesterday pm:

Policeman: Where are you going, maam?
Wife: The market (actually it was the 7/11, but market sounds more essential)
Policeman: Are you local?
Wife: Oh yes!
Policeman waved us on

Reminded me of something:

Raffin

Yesterday 8,615 new cases. But that included 3,318 from backlog. Three labs were late but only 30 or 40 cases from them likely to be added. The latest cases had a 15.5% positivity from 34.2k tests. Coming along 36.9k test results..

Recoveries 25.2k

Deaths 236, 120 RDs

Active 82,229 lowest since Aug 11

Serious 3,315, up 150 and Critical 1,316, up 30

NCR ICU 66%, down 3%, National 68%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,898
4A 1,391
CL 875
CAR 646
IL 568
CV 552
Cag 478
WV 473
MIM 406

200s 4 regions
100s 1

The NCR added over 400 more to have 22.0% of all cases. Region 4A also added over 400 more. CL put on about 100 more.
These top 3 regions had 48.3% of cases, up.

In sixth position CV added over 300 more.
The top 6 regions had 68.8% of all cases, up.

Elsewhere MIMAROPA had over 150 more.

The House of Commons out quickly with a not very complimentary report on the British government's pandemic response:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58876089