New cases yesterday about the same as the day before...5,807, again 2 labs late and again cases held over, 257. Positivity 10.3% of 58.8k tests. A lower number, 53.6k coming.

Recoveries 9.6k

Deaths 65, 51 RDs

Active 63,051

Severe 3,090, up 15 and 1,324, up 54

NCR ICU 49%, unchanged. National 55%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,224
4A 636
Cag 594
CL 497
WV 490
Bic 390
ZP 389
IL 364

200s 2 regions
100s 4

NCR with a higher 21.1% of all cases. Up by about 200, as was region 4A. Cagayan reported about 350 less.
These top 3 regions with 42.3% of all cases, down.

WV added over 350 and Bicol over 150.
The top 6 regions at 66.0% of all cases, also down.

Elsewhere Zamboanga had about 100 more.



Chart from Dr John's Friday video showing how breakthrough infections needing hospital treatment have varied with age in the UK. Increase greatly in Seniors.

You might not believe it but the TV series Rawhide back in the early 1960s had an episode dealing with vaccination:

There is a breakthrough infection, due to time.


Weekly update coming later.

Weekly update:

This week back to the normal comparison of percentage change in new cases last week over the week before.

Nationally a fall of 35%.

Regionally: all 17 region's rate of increase fell substantially.

The lowest fall was in the CV, by 7%.

Other regions with low % falls were:

Cagayan 14%
Zamboanga 23%
Ilocos 24%
N Mindanao 26%

Other regions fell by :

NCR 41%
4A 50%
CL 40%
WV 36%
Dav 44%

For NCR cities:

All had substantial % falls.
The lowest % falls were in:

Paranaque 25
Makati 27
Valenzuala 30
Caloocan 30

Also:
QC 41
Manila 33

The greatest fall (excluding tiny Pateros) was in Taguig, by 62%.

All the provinces around the NCR had falls in the rate of increase around 50% except:

Pampanga 24%
Pangasinan 20

Major cities:

All fell substantially; except Cebu and Iligan:

Baguio 36%
Bacolod 34
Cebu 5
CDO 38
Davao 42
Iligan 5
Cotabato 44
Gen San 40
Zamb 19
Naga 60
Sorsogon 40
Tacloban 24
IloIlo 55
Lucena 56

Areas:

Aklan 26
Bohol 25
IloIlo 25

Yesterday 5,279 cases, more than 500 less than the day before, 168 results were held over, 2 labs late. The DOH estimate these would have added another 40 positives. Positivity again 10.3% from 52.9k tests. Tests in preparation 46.8k.

Recoveries 7.3k

Deaths 208

Active 60,957

Severe 3,109, up 19 and Critical 1,280, down 44

NCR ICU 46%, down 3% . National 53%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 1,010
Cag 646
CL 469
MIM 426
4A 423
WV 297
Caraga 280

More in the 200s 5 regions
100s 3

NCR had about 200 less cases to come top with 19.1% of all cases.
The top 3 regions with a lower 40.3% of cases.

MIMAROPA in an unusually high 4th place reported over 250 more cases. 4A added over 200 more.
The top 6 regions at 62.0% of all cases, down.

Elsewhere Caraga, in 7th position, reported nearly 200 more cases.

Yesterday over 800 less with 4,405 cases announced. including a 109 backlog. Five labs late. Positivity down at 9.0% from 47.7k cases. To come soon 32.7k results.

Recoveries 7.6k

Deaths 149, 118 RDs.

Active: 57,763

Severe 3,061, down 48, Critical 1,214, down 66

NCR ICU 46%, same, national 52%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 837
Cag 525
4A 464
CL 352
CAR 307
CV 303
WV 288
Dav 231

5 regions 100s

The NCR with about 170 less cases and again 19% of national cases.
Cagayan, with over 100 less, was second. But 4A in third had about 40 more.
These top 3 regions with 41.5% of all cases, up.

The only notable increase elsewhere was the CAR with over 100 more.

Top 6 regions with 63.3% of all cases, up.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/25/...nd-match-trial

Had our first jabs yesterday at a school in a neighbouring LGU. Judging by the information board it seems that they had recently resumed as the latest total of vaccinations given was from late September. Was told by our subdivision it was to be AZ, but turned out to be Sinovac! One lady in our party expressed disappointment. I told her and others in the room about the "mix and match" trials, where, as you can read in the link, if OKd, you could get later next year another brand eg Az on top of two Siovacs. Unclear if it would be a booster or full dose, but I would think a full dose. Though having Sinovac is OK with me as I'm mainly after the certificate.

For those of you watching Dr John, as I expected, no aspiration.

We had our flu jabs yesterday at the barangay health centre. Both me and the wife should be thinking about covid boosters soon as we had our shoots last spring in the UK. I had AZ and the wife received the Pfizer. I'm waiting to see what the recommendations are as to if we need to follow our original shots with the same vaccine booster or we can take anything available. Saying that I would stick with the mainstream vaccines. Watching Dr John I would be concerned if I'd had the single shot Johnson & John which looks to fall rapidly in effectiveness in only 2-3 months.

So far JnJ only 3% of total doses which have come here, so plus the poor performance unlikely you would be offered it It would be interesting to know what went wrong with that vaccine.

I suspect that it should have been a two all along. If I was a conspiracy theorist I would suggest Johnson needed to break into a market they were late to and needed an angle.

The usual weekend effect on testing, 4,393 cases at 8.5% positivity. Five labs late to submit. Somewhat delayed figures with a 1,395 backlog. Numbers tested 35.3k, dropping to 39.1k in process.


Samples tested falling rapidly, much more so than they did earlier this year when there was another fall in cases.

Recoveries 8.5k

Deaths 135, 97 RDs

Active 53,642

Severe 3,111, up 50 and critical 1,287, down 73

NCR ICU 47%, up 1%. National 53%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,095
CL 582
4A 581
CAR 377
Cag 335
MIM 220
WV 190
ZP 170

Regions in 100s 4 more

NCR with over 250 more had an increased 25% share of all cases. Probably due to some of the backlog.
CL had 230 more and 4A over100 more to give the top 3 regions just over half of national cases.

The top 6 with 72.6% of all cases, up 9%.
MIMAROPA in sixth place had nearly 40 more.

Over 1,000 less cases announced yesterday, one lab late and and a small backlog of 98 included. The total of 3,218 the lowest since May 23. Positives lower at 7.6% from 41k tests. In preparation 49k.

Recoveries 6.7k

Deaths 271, 227 RDs.
The crazy RDs keep coming in large numbers most days!

Active 50,152

Severe 3,109, down 2 and Critical 1,304, up 17

NCR ICU 42%, down 5%, national 51%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 586
Cag 368
CAR 354
CL 291
Dav 252
4A 239
MIM 209
IL 204

100s 3 regions

NCR down by over 500 to have a much lower 18.2% of cases.
Cagayan up 33 and the CAR down by 23.
These top 3 regions had 40.6% of all cases, down.

Davao had 50 more cases but CL's and 4A's numbers fell markedly.
The top 6 regions with 64.9% of all cases down.

Elsewhere Ilocos reported 60 more.

DOH recommended boosters:




Other SE Asian countries:


Thailand



Malaysia


Indonesia...remarkable case fall and also deaths. Latest report 719 new cases and 29 deaths.

According to John Hopkins Indonesia is only slightly ahead of the Philippines on fully vaccinated, 25.5%, against 24.2%.
But it has administered 117M first doses against the Philippines 30M, so some advantage there. Otherwise both countries are heavily reliant on the Sinovac vaccine. So it's not clear why Indonesia has been doing so much better. Unless its the poor Philippines vaccine roll out, with its over concentration on one part of the country?

It's odd that the Philippines death rate is similar to the UK but the UK sees 5x the level of class. Is tbis indicative of poor healthcare in the Philippines compared to the UK or is someone telling fibs.

Phil has more like 3 x level of total cases and of the two countries I would guess the case counts here are by far the most under estimated, so it could be less than a multiple of 3. Deaths here are also likely to be more under estimated than in the UK.

So the similar Case Fatality Rates you have seen at 1.6% UK and 1.5% Phil are likely to be about right. The large difference in the age distribution of the two populations would be the reason for the lower Phil rate and higher UK rate. If healthcare was better here the Phil CFR could be even lower and the difference from the UK greater.

Perhaps the Philippines is starting to see the light at last.
https://www.rappler.com/nation/phili...age-population

And

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...ience-ranking/

Yes Gazza, good they realise they have to vaccinate more. Given the weaker Sinovac is about half of those doses administered so far, that's another reason.

We've just come back from a local school for the National ID, but they're also doing vaccinations at last. A line of people for vaccination at 8am went about half a km down the road and was growing when we left at 9am. So around Upper Cavite it looks like they can make the higher target. But the OCTA group recently said there was significant vaccine hesitancy in VisMin.

Raffin your post showing preferred booster vaccines is very interesting. Today I received a text from the NHS asking me to book my booster shots, my wife will be due in about 3 weeks. I had Astra Zenica and my wife had Pfizer so it looks we could both have a Pfizer booster.

A confusing output of covid stats for October 28 from the DOH. They've just put out an upwardly revised total of 7,313 new cases along with delayed local data, but kept up the old total of only 3,694 on an unrevised bulletin chart, which they published yesterday.

So all we can say is:

Recoveries 6.7k

Deaths 227

Active 49,857? But only 22 more than yesterday's figure and well over 3k more cases were later added. So a doubtful figure if the deaths number still stands.

NCR ICU 41%, down 1%. National 50%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,303
4A 971
CAR 691
CL 623
ZP 477
WV 446
Cga 414
CV 308
Cag 302

200s 2 regions
300s 1
100s 4

NCR up over 700 at 18.3% of cases. Region 4A also up over 700.
Top 3 regions at 41.6%, up.

CL, ZP and WV each up by over 300 to give the top 6 regions 63.2% of all cases.

Elsewhere CV up by 240.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

NCR Alert level 3 for first 2 weeks of November.
Aurora and Bacolod City to level 4.

Latest OCTA report from the past 7 days highlighting rapid case growth in Dumaguete and Occidental Mindoro:





The Philippines holding up the Bloonberg table on pandemic response with 4 SE Asian neighbours just above it..
First column overall pandemic resilience score, second full vaccination %,

A good UK study on how easy it is for the fully vaccinated to spread covid indoors:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59077036