Raffin

The weekend effect giving a lower 7,181 new cases and 1,455 of them were from backlog. Only 2 labs late. Positivity down again to 14.2% from 40.3k tests. More tests coming along, estimated at 47.9k.

Recoveries 6.9k

Deaths 173 with 101 RDs

Active 82,411

Severe in primary hospitals: 3,049, down 75, Critical 1,319, up 3
(Severe number for Oct 12 should have been 3,124)

NCR ICU 65%, down 1%, national 67%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,257
4A 967
Cag 707
CAR 681
CL 635
WV 595
Zam 331

The NCR had about 600 less and a low 17.5% of all cases. Similarly for region 4A. Whereas Cagayan had over 200 more.
These top 3 regions with 40.8% of all cases, down about 8%.

CL was over 200 down, WV added more than 100.
The top 6 regions with a slightly smaller national share of 67.4%.

Elsewhere EV added over 100 more.


For the NCR and the rest of the country until Oct 31:

NCR moves down to the DOH's Alert Level 3. A reminder from a Rappler article back in August what these alert levels are about:


Risk class: a decision was made to treat the NCR as a whole even though the 17 LGUs have different covid statistics (see OCTA updates). Covid bed utilization only just below 70% Granular lockdowns: now down to 125 and that now only includes 24 villages/subdivisions in the whole of the NCR.

The following GMA online news articles explain what this means:

Restos now 30 and 50%, indoor, outdoor rather than 10 and 30.
Indoor diners must be fully vaccinated. But having the "Safety Seal" ups the indoor % to 40.

One interesting thing from this article is that gatherings in a household of members of different households still not allowed. News to me that was ever not allowed and I am sure it was not monitored if it was.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...31-2021/story/

Not entirely clear, but it seems cinemas are being treated like restaurants:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in

Last, a list of Quarantines from ABS-CBN for the rest of the country. The DOH said the NCR Alert system may be applied elsewhere. No sign of that happening:MODIFIED ENHANCED COMMUNITY QUARANTINE

Luzon

• Rizal
• Laguna
• Cavite
• Naga City
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Batanes
• Bulacan
• Bataan

Mindanao

• Zamboanga City
• Zamboanga del Norte

GENERAL COMMUNITY QUARANTINE WITH HEIGHTENED RESTRICTIONS
Luzon

• Abra
• Baguio City
• Ilocos Sur
• Pangasinan
• Cagayan
• Isabela
• City of Santiago
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Quezon
• Batangas

Visayas

• Bacolod City
• Capiz
• Lapu-Lapu City
• Negros Oriental
• Bohol

Mindanao

• Zamboanga del Sur
• Misamis Oriental
• Cagayan de Oro City
• Davao del Norte
• Davao Occidental
• Davao de Oro
• Butuan City
• Surigao del Sur

GENERAL COMMUNITY QUARANTINE

Luzon

• Ilocos Norte
• Dagupan City
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• Tarlac
• Lucena City
• Occidental Mindoro
• Oriental Mindoro
• Puerto Princesa
• Marinduque
• Albay
• Camarines Norte

Visayas

• Aklan
• Antique
• Guimaras
• Negros Occidental
• Iloilo City
• Iloilo Province
• Cebu City
• Cebu Province
• Mandaue City
• Siquijor
• Tacloban City

Mindanao

• Zamboanga Sibugay
• Misamis Occidental
• Iligan City
• Davao City
• Davao Oriental
• Davao del Sur
• General Santos City
• Sultan Kudarat
• Sarangani
• North Cotabato
• South Cotabato
• Agusan del Norte
• Agusan del Sur
• Surigao del Norte
• Dinagat Islands
• Cotabato City
• Lanao del Sur

All other areas under Modified General Community Quarantine (MGCQ).

Raffin

Yesterday another 7,835 cases, backlog at 645. Four labs late. Their likely lost contribution about 90 cases. Positivity 14.0% from 51.4k tests. Lowest since July 25. Coming along a lower 48.4k.

Recoveries 5.3k

Deaths 151, 89 RDs

Active 84,850

Severe 3,055, up 6 and Critical 1,273, up 46

NCR ICU 61%, down 4%, national 65%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 1,553
4A 1,150
CAR 900
CL 775
WV 501
Cag 493
Dav 474
Zam 411
IL 383

200s 1 region
100s 4

The NCR added about 300 more to have 19.8% of national cases.
4A added about 200 and the CAR had well over 200 more to make the top 3 regions have an increased 46.0% of all cases.

The top 6 had 69.1% of all cases, nearly 2% more.

Increases of 100 to 200 more cases were seen in the Ilocos, NM and Davao regions.

The vaccine Czar optimistic about vaccine supply but they have a big disparity to fix on vaccinations done. This was the regional picture 2 weeks ago on total vaccinations by region, the latest I can find:



The latest OCTA NCR update. They have their own criteria, borrowed from the US to assess covid risk and seem to agree with the DOH:


The NCR heading in the right direction but if it wasn't these figures would be concerning!

I thought this was interesting:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58899612

Last, a good discussion on Newsnight on the recent House of Commons report on the UK response:


For report link see Oct 13.

Raffin

Yesterday about 200 less cases nationally including a backlog of 226. Three labs late. Positivity 14.9%, up 1% on the previous day, from 49.7k tests.

Recoveries 13.4k

Deaths 203, 109 RDs

Active: 78,999

Serious 3,081, up 26 and Critical 1,343, up 70

NCR ICU 64%, up 3%, national 66%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 1,381
4A 913
Cag 746
CL 697
WV 615
CAR 485
Bic 413
IL 370
Dav 364
Zam 340
MIM 300

200s 2 regions
100s 3

NCR with about 170 less and down to 18.1% of all cases. Region 4A was down by over 200 but Cagayan put on about 250 more. The top 3 with a lower 39.9% of all cases.

CL and WV both added over 100 cases though the CAR had over 400 less leading to the top 6 regions having 63.4% of all cases.

Elsewhere Bicol had over 300 more cases and MIMAROPA about 150 more.

How does the Philippines stand in Asia? Most of its neighbours also reporting less cases:


From worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Indonesia yesterday reported 915 cases.


Rapid decline in Indonesia.

Raffin

For Oct 16 about 150 more national cases at 7,772, backlog of 729. One lab late. A lower positivity of 13.0% from 54.2k tests. Lowest since Aug 10, says ABS-CBN. Tests on the way 48.5k.

Recoveries a low 1.6k

Deaths 156, 81 RDs.
Every day a large number of RDs, which inflated past recovery figures and under reported current death numbers. On one DOH chart the dates of deaths are used but they are not counted at the time when experts should know how the health system is doing.

Active: 85,048

Severe 3,062, down 19 and Critical 1,276, down 67

NCR ICU 62%, down 2%. National ICU 64%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 1,429
Cag 934
4A 790
CL 738
Bic 646
CAR 587

300s 5 regions
200s 1
100s 4

The NCR with a few more cases, at 18.0% of all cases.
Cagayan in second place added nearly 200 more.
The top 3 regions at 40.6% of all cases, up slightly.

Bicol, in fifth position added more than 200.

The top 6 regions at 65.9%, up 2.5%.

CV added about 160 more.



Cagayan looks on a downward trend but recent numbers concerning.


Bicol also on a solid decline but now 2 successive days of high cases,

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...5?ocid=BingHPC

Some NCR cities allowing kids outside. To the list there maybe you can add Manila. I saw some on the TV news last night allowed on the Dolomite beach. After so long cooped up the harm done by that surely greatly outweighs the covid risk?

A dissenting ex government health adviser on the downgrade to Alert level 3.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/16/...-alert-level-3

I think the main changes down to level 3 are modest and yes, cinemas are potential spreading areas but it seems you need vaccination proof, at least in San Juan and probably other cities.. About 50% capacity, so a bit more than some indoor dining. Again people need to go out and enjoy themselves and if the risk is small...

Weekly update later.

Raffin

Weekly update

New cases in the country last week showed a 20% reduction over the previous week. But the % reduction from the previous week compared to the week before was 33%. So case number improvement is slowing. So this week there many more regions, provinces and cities showing just small improvements or even cases increasing at a faster rate. Whereas in last week's update nearly all areas were showing decreases.

Due to missing data from the week before last I won't give % changes (but will give figures in a week's time). Today I will just indicate the most obvious changes.

Regional:

Regions with a high rate of increase last week over the week before (in descending order):

Bicol (very high)
Zanboanga Pen
W Visayas
MIMAROPA
Caraga

Regions with a moderate % fall in new cases :

Cagayan
CAR
Ilocos

For NCR cities:

Las Pinas new cases high % increase.
Also in Navotas. And Pateros (but small numbers).

Manila, Pasig, S Juan, Pasay, Pasig moderate % increase

Large decline in new cases in Muntinlupa.
Moderate decline in Makati.
QC small decline.

Small changes in the provinces around the NCR except for Bataan and Rizal, which both had moderate % rises.

For cities:

Naga and Sorsogon in Bicol both had very large % increases.
In the Visayas Bacolod and IloIlo both with moderate % increases.

In Mindanao Zamboanga City had a large % increase.

Baguio had a moderate % fall.



Apart from rising cases and hospital admissions the UK showing increasing infection in the 35-55 yrs age group (green), likely mostly infected by the young(blue) who are back to school. So good that all schools in the Philippines won't return for a while. Similar to the UK the economy here is being prioritized. But in the UK nearly all restrictions were removed a few months ago. Here a good thing is that the main ones look like being kept.


Dr John and other experts very concerned that cases are still rising going into Winter in the UK despite a high vaccination rate.

While there a number of big differences between the covid situations in the UK and here we will be nowhere near 85% next year so it will not be over here in 2022.

The video:

Gazza-d

I think the problem in the Philippines now is that they been squeezing the economy for so long that the pips are starting to squeak. It's okay the populace suffering but it's now getting to the stage that the privileged classes are starting to feel the pinch, so things are starting to change, be it a good idea or not. One telling result was Duque being left out of the latest decision over the quarantine changes.

Raffin

NCR Mayors left out too. Election campaigning starts in earnest soon and the government want to claim a victory is coming, despite the covid numbers, for its preferred candidates.

Raffin

Yesterday 6,913 new cases. That is over 800 less than the day before. Backlog of 204, 3 labs late to report. Lower positivity of 12.5% from 53.7k tests. Slightly lower 50.8k in preparation.

Recoveries 10.2k

Deaths 95, 31 RDs

Active 81,641

Severe 3,102, up 40 and Critical 1,306, up 30

NCR ICU 59%, down 3%, national 62%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 1,159
4A 742
CAR 647
Cag 617
CL 565
CV 563
IL 519
WV 419

200s 4 regions
100s 4

NCR with a lower 16.8% of all cases.
The top 3 regions with a lower 36.9% of all cases.

CV added about 200 new cases.

The top 6 regions had a lower 62.1%.

Lower down the table Ilocos added about 200, WV and MIMAROPA each about 100.


Vaccination progress:

Philippines: 24M fully, 27.5M first dose (latest)
About 22% of pop and 30% of "target pop"..80M.

Compare to:

Indonesia 23% fully
Thailand 36%
Malaysia 69%
Vietnam 18%

Raffin

Only 30 more cases announced yesterday. Backlog of 259 and 2 labs were late. Positivity 13.3% from 54.2k tests. Tests coming are lower, as expected, at 35.3k.

Recoveries 19.7k

Deaths 86, 30 of them RDs

Active down to 68,632

Severe 3,097, down 5 and Critical 1,308, up 2

NCR ICU 59%, national 62% both unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 1,165
4A 859
Cag 695
WV 572
CAR 548
CL 544
IL 495
Bic 459
Zam 458

200s 2 regions
100s 3

NCR with just 5 more cases and again 16.8% of all cases.
Region 4A added over 100 and Cagayan over 80 to make together with the NCR 39.2% of all cases, up.

WV added over 150 in 4th position.
The top 6 regions at 63.1% of all cases, up 1%.

Elsewhere Bicol added over 250 more and Zamboanga over 150 more.

Raffin

Testing down to 35.8k was the main reason for a low 4,496 cases yesterday. Seven labs late meant cases were likely about 90 less. A small backlog of 61 included. Positivty at 12.4%. A higher 40.7k tests in preparation.

Recoveries 9.6k

Deaths 211, 45 RDs

Active 63,637

Severe 3,055, down 42 and Critical 1,273, down 61

NCR ICU 54%, down 5%. National 60%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 741
Cag 465
4A 454
CL 418
CAR 411
WV 375
IL 308
CV 307
ZP 232

100s 3 regions

The NCR had over 400 less and 16.5% of all cases, region 4A also had about 400 less. Cagayan reported over 200 less.
The top 3 regions had 36.9% of all cases, down.
The top 6 at 63.7%, up.

Elsewhere Ilocos added about 200.
CV added over 100.

New vaccination target:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/...5-million-jabs

Pie in the sky! Targets can be above the possible to encourage but not as much as this!

Seniors can now go out for "non essential" purposes in the NCR. Go to Malls if they show a vaccination certificate.
I went in one SM Mall there yesterday. Just a temperature check.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...-under-alert-3

Raffin

Again a lower announcement yesterday, 3,656, 2 labs late. But 1,250 results were held over for some reason. Positivity down to 11.6% from 42.3k tests. Coming along 47.3k.

Recoveries 22.8k

Deaths 5 !!

Active: 67,061

Severe 3,084, up 29 and Critical 1,341, up 68

NCR ICU 53%, down 1%. National 59%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 642
CL 436
Cag 387
4A 305
ZP 296
CAR 290
WV 233
Bic 215

100s 5 regions

NCR down about 100, region 4A by about 150, Cagayan by 80. But CL had a few more.
NCR with 17.6% of all cases and the top 3 regions had 40.1%, up.

The top 6 regions had 64.4% of all cases, up. They included the ZP, which reported 64 more.
Bicol had about 100 more.

Vaccinations

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/20/...e-distribution

Problem is the ordering last year favored one Chinese supplier, Coronavac, making an older and less effective vaccine. The President himself got the better Chinese one, Sinopharm. But only about 1m doses of that came. Sinovac has sent about 40M to date. Making distribution and the vaccination centre managers jobs more difficult, if followed.

"...almost no deaths now" What?

Latest OCTA report on the NCR and some other cities and provinces:


NCR has the highest attack rate but on a downward trend with positivity lower at 8% and R around 0.5. Hospitals coping.
Three provinces, Laguna, Bulacan and Pampanga with high positivity.

How do the provinces above outside the NCR (level 3) relate to the new DOH Alert system?



For details on Alert level 4 see posts from last month on the NCR.






More complicated. I'm sure most people in the newly designated level 3 and 2 areas won't understand them after getting used to MECQ and GCQ. If they are really piloting it the DOH would see if the public and officials understand it, But they won't check that. The public will just look to see what they can and can't do.

Remember this?

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/...ults-RITM.html


The Alert levels mention the Delta variant. They haven't much idea of its extent here, but judging by experience from other countries with better testing it must be dominant here. This is from ZOE app tracking data (King's College, London). Very reliable symptom data comes from the app. ZOE data generally is usually consistent with official ONS UK data. Though the UK DOH have kept misleading symptom data from the time of the alpha variant still showing until now.





The second list is more relevant to the vaccination situation here in the Philippines, but both lists are similar and ZOE say the order of symptoms is also similar for the unvaccinated.

Both lists do not have fever as a main symptom. So temperature checks cannot be relied upon with the delta variant, giving more importance to proof of vaccination.

Raffin

Yesterday 4,806 cases, 891 of them from backlog. No labs late. Positivity lower at 10.9% from 52.3k cases. Coming along are 55.3k test results.

Recoveries 5.9k

Deaths 260, 175 of them were RDs.

Active 65,835

Severe 3,166, up 82, Critical 1,317, down 24

Regional data:

Cag 946
NCR 842
CL 482
4A 428
CAR 325
CV 289
WV 284
IL 275
BIc 232

3 regions 100s

A splurge of new cases from Cagayan, over 500 more, means it unusually has first place.


But Cagayan seemingly on a downward trend....

The NCR had about 200 more to have 17.5% of all cases.
The top 3 regions 47.2% of cases, up.

Region 4A had over 100 more.
The top 6 regions with 68.9% of cases, up.

Elsewhere Ilocos had over 100 more.

A short film from Al Jazeera about the 2020 Manila lockdown, filmed in Santa Cruz, Manila and Payatas, QC.

https://www.aljazeera.com/program/wi...s-in-the-world


Dr John with an excellent video on the Delta Plus variant:

Raffin

Yesterday about 1,000 more cases announced but 937 were held back for some reason. Two labs late. Higher 11.6% positivity from 58.4k tests. In preparation 55.6k.

Recoveries 4.8k

Deaths 283 including 220 RDs.
That's nearly 400 of the mysterious RDs in 2 days.

Active 66,838

Severe 3,075, down 91 and Critical 1,270, down 47 in primary hospitals only.

NCR ICU 49%, down 3% National 56%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 1,031
Cag 849
4A 641
CL 505
CV 445
CAR 398
IL 333

200s 4 regions
100s 4 regions

The NCR with about 200 more to maintain over 17% of cases.
Cagayan had 100 less but still reporting a high number.
Region 4A had over 200 more.
The top 3 regions with 43.3% of all cases, down.

CV reported about 200 more.
The top 6 regions with 66.4%, down.

Elsewhere ZP had about 200 more.

Vaccination:

BE server not responding so cannot put in a link on this....but government claiming 81% fully vaccinated in the NCR. Actually 75% of its target there, which is 9.8M. Population of NCR taken at 13M. Do they know that is a good estimate? The recent census was taken during the lockdown and many people left the NCR then, only to return lately.

Again ....BE server not allowing picture upload this morning, so no table to show, but..

Vaccines have been concentrated on the NCR. The Cordilleras are at about 35% of target, Davao and Calabarzon around 31%, Central Luzon at 28% and the Visayas around 26%.

The justification given by the President's spokesman is that protecting the NCR protects the rest of the country. Though there are and have been travel restrictions between the NCR and the rest of the country. Its really mostly about the economy.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/10/21/...ovid-19-in-ncr

Gazza-d

There's talk of giving vaccine to the adolescents yet they are nowhere near vaccinating the vulnerable groups. My wife's 89 year old aunt living near Dumaguete has not been vaccinated and I don't think there is even a schedule yet. She just spent 6 days in hospital with suspected covid, I say suspected because to me her slow slurred speech sounded more like a minor stroke, no fever or coughing just off eating and very lethargic. They put her on 6 daily shots of remdesivir, not recommended by the WHO at 6k a shot. After 2 days the hospital refused any more until they come up with some more money. I suspect the total bill will approach 150 k. she has improved markedly but I think that is largely due to getting some food into her.

Raffin

Yes G. We registered months ago locally here in Upper Cavite and have heard nothing. Our subd HOA now promising soon through a neighbouring LGU.

I think many people may wrongly think the top priority groups have been already vaccinated. The government as usual not giving out much information apart from totals. But they also may see more risk to them and others in their household like Seniors from the return of kids to school, thinking that must be coming next year. I think they're right.

Most Seniors here are with family, regardless of health condition. Just as well, given what happened with covid in UK and US care homes!