NCR llockdown

Old Sep 21st 2021, 3:49 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

There is a short piece on YouTube of Duterte where I got the impression that he was complaining about the level of false positives from PCR tests. It was in Tagalog so I couldn't understand what he was mumbling about but wondered if he was suggesting that the case figures are in reality far lower than report due to the claimed 40% false positives being returned.
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Old Sep 21st 2021, 3:58 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yes the Head of State is not the best orator in the world. I even think he ranks a few steps below Teflon Don!
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Old Sep 21st 2021, 4:13 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d
There is a short piece on YouTube of Duterte where I got the impression that he was complaining about the level of false positives from PCR tests. It was in Tagalog so I couldn't understand what he was mumbling about but wondered if he was suggesting that the case figures are in reality far lower than report due to the claimed 40% false positives being returned.
Just the Red Cross. One of his many attacks lately on Gordon.
A Subic case raised by the Dep Speaker, one of The President's staunchest allies. Claims 49 medical personnel found positive by the RC, then 3 days later only 5. Well all PCR tests can have false positives and if they were mild infections the 3 days can make a difference.
Generally best to ignore him on anything statistical, he wants to attack Gordon and it's still being investigated.
If you think about it the Red Cross do a large number of PCR tests here. If he can get the public to accept his claims the outbreak isn't so bad here, is it?

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...n-subic/story/
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Old Sep 21st 2021, 10:45 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Another misleading announcement yesterday with 3,330 positive results held back and those added to no doubt some previous backlog. They could confirm 16,361 cases, 4 labs did not submit in time. Positivity 27% from 48.3k tests, 2k less coming along.

ABS-CBN say that already cases this month exceed August's.
Official total is now more than 2.4M cases.

Recoveries 22k

Deaths 140, 60 RDs

Active 171,142

Severe 2,396, down 80 and Critical 1,027, down 34

NCR ICU 78%, down 1%. National 78%, up 1%


Regional data:

NCR 3,316
4A 2,755
IL 1,651
Cag 1,586
CL 1,356
CAR 1,004
Caraga 767

600s 2 regions
500s 1
400s 1
300s 2
200s 2
100s 2

We don't know where the missing results came from but it looks like falls in the NCR are continuing with about 1.6k less.
It reported only 20% of all cases.
Also 4A fell by about 800.
But Ilocos beat CL with about 900 less, to come 3rd with over 700 more new cases.
CAR was another N Luzon area to add cases.... about 300 more.

Bicol and the Visayan regions all reported less cases.

In Mindanao Davao, Caraga and SOCCSK each reported about 150 more.
NM continued in a downward trend, reporting about 200 less.

Top 3 regions 57%
Top 6: 73.6%
Both down.

OCTA group say the worst is over for the NCR:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...esearch/story/

The DOH's dire projections of an India style crisis in the NCR are not born out. Partly because vaccination progress seems good there. At Sept 7 (latest data) ABS-CBN report 3.4M doubly jabbed. The number of first vaccinations looks encouraging:




But national positivity is still over 25% and cases are rising faster in certain regions in the Visayas, N Luzon and Mindanao, where health facilities are much poorer.

So the NCR will continue to recover economically. Which is the political aim as 2022 is an election year.

I expect the country as a whole will continue with its medium sized, chronic covid outbreak well into 2022 and having to deal with a number of smaller provincial outbreaks over the next few months. Slow vaccination progress and continued lack of testing the main reason for the longevity of the outbreak here.

The resulting illness and death will last well into 2023.




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Old Sep 23rd 2021, 7:15 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Internet off all day until just now.
Will combine yesterday's and today's report later.
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Old Sep 23rd 2021, 10:03 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

On Wednesday:

15,592 cases including a 2,308 backlog.
Late: 4 Labs
Positivity; 24.9% from 53.4k tests
Recoveries: 24.1k
Deaths 154, 89 RDs
Severe 2,439, up 43, Critical 1,138, up 111
NCR ICU: 77%, down 1%. National 78%, unchanged

Regional data:

NCR 3,627
4A 3,123
CL 1,549
Cag 1,147
CAR 925
NM 781
WV 707
IL 593
Dav 590
MIM 541

400s 1
300s 3
200s,100s 1

Yesterday:

17,411 cases, 58 held over
Late: 3 labs
Positivity: 24.6% from 71k tests
ABS-CBN say lowest for a month
Recoveries 14.1k
Active: 165,790
Deaths 177, 88 RDs
Severe 2,487, up 48, Critical 1,161, up 23
Unambiguous deterioration over the 2 days
NCR ICU 80%, up 3%, National 79%, up 1%
Tests in prep: 70.9k

Regional data:

NCR 4,505
4A 2,813
CL 1,890
Cag 1,607
WV 1,158
IL 962
CAR 665
Bic 560
Dav 546
NM 511

400s 1 region
300s 3
200s 2

Over the 2 days:

NCR up more than 300 and then nearly 900 to reach 25.9% of all cases. Up 5% from Sep 21.
4A up and down but CL up by nearly 200 and then more than 300 yesterday.
These top 3 regions at 52.9% of all cases, again up 5% from Sep 21

Elsewhere, both WV and CV increased over both days, notably WV by about 600 from Sep 21.
Zamboanga put on about 100 on Weds then another 35 to reach 395 yesterday.
MIMAROPA had less yesterday but went up by nearly 300 on Weds.
NM put on about 400 on Weds then fell more than 200 yesterday.

Top 6 regions 74.3%, up 3% from Sep 21

Face shields:

An about turn by the President on public space wearing. About time! But don't celebrate as guidance is coming. It's against the nature of those in charge to make these unpopular plastics optional, despite what he says here:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...contact/story/

DOH defensive on deaths:

The DOH put out this press release which conveniently shows case fatality here down from 2020. But conveniently leaving out the spurt of deaths which are starting to come from the delta surge from late July. In any case the Philippines lower than world average figure of 1.54% not so good when you allow for the lower aged population and the resulting number of mild illnesses.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ses-doh/story/

Baguio and Bohol quarantine levels with more restrictions:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/23/...d-restrictions

Because the government doesn't like to use MECQ anymore and don't want to pay Ayuda for ECQ.
Bohol has been doing badly for many months.

From a BBC article today on their UK News site on some research into changes in life expectancy. It says that the reductions may well be temporary, but they're not sure of that:



Dr John has been keeping up with the latest research and doing some very interesting videos on it lately :


Aerosols over 5 water droplets. 5% and under what we normally call aerosols. Fomite means objects, things we carry, use, like cellphones. Clever research.
A self explanatory screenshot but you can watch "vaccines from age 5" for more details.


Plus: How they are tackling covid in 2 Indian states and possibly achieving remarkable results:
















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Old Sep 24th 2021, 8:56 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 18,659 cases, 116 backlog included and just 1 lab late to submit. Positivity 24.2% from a higher 76.6k tests on individuals. Tests in preparation 67k.

This week the number tested with one day to go looks to be about 20% down on the previous week. When about 1 in 4 tests are turning out positive. The DOH are investigating. But will they tell us why?

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...regions/story/

Recoveries 9.1k

Deaths 0! (technical issues)

Active 175,324

Severe 2,630, up 143, Critical 1,227, up 66
Significant increases again. Total now over 3,800. A few weeks ago it was always under 2,000.

NCR ICU 76%, down 4%. National 77%, down 2%

Regional data:

NCR 4,498
4A 3,186
CL 2,239
Cag 1,135
Dav 1,030
IL 1,062
WV 880
CV 797
CAR 740
Cga 723

500s 1 region
400s 2
300s, 200s, 100s 1

The NCR with a few less cases and a low 17.1% of all cases.
Whereas CL and 4A each had 3-400 more.
These top 3 regions with a higher 53.2% of all cases.

Davao reported nearly 500 more and Ilocos cases went up by 1k.
Caraga's and CV's cases each rose by about 350.
EV had 250 more.

Top 6 regions with 70.5%, down 4%.

Testing:

Antigen results to be incorporated in test reporting:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...story/?just_in




A recently re-instated check point at 10am on a back road in Upper Cavite which we overlook from our house

Some traffic early morning and evening passes by, otherwise very quiet rest of the day. Not open at night, when they could catch some curfew violators. Operated by two police, two or three Brgy guys and a couple of young girls at various times who just sit at the table. The traffic all local since a garden restaurant 1 km away, popular with day trippers, closed down. The police stop a few cars and bikes but most are known and just waved by.
The only action we have seen was on the first day of operation when they stopped two young girls walking by without masks. taking their names and photos.
The local infection rate has increased this year but it's mainly brought in from Manila. The Municipality are dealing with them in the usual way and lately have put some police at a busy T junction on the nearby main road asking where you are going. We were stopped and answered "palengke", which was ok. Slightly more useful than the checks on our back road, but you wonder what would have been an unacceptable answer.


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Old Sep 26th 2021, 2:42 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a drop in new cases announced by over 1,600, but 700 positives were held over and 4 labs were late to report. Positivity at 23.6% from 74.6k individual tests. Tests on the way maintained at 73.1k.

Recoveries higher at 27.1k

Deaths again zero as technical problem persists.

Active 165,110

Severe 2,642, up 12 and Critical 1,156, down 71

Both NCR and national ICU use at 76%, both down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 3,935
4A 2,437
CV 2,416
CAR 1,723
CL 1.354
Dav 1,050
EV 853
Bic 809

400s 2 regions
300s 1
200s 3
100s 1

NCR with over 500 less and 23.3% of national cases, but there were much bigger falls in 4A and CL such that CL lost 3rd place to CV, coming 5th.
CV reported about 1.6k more cases.
CAR was 4th with about 1k more.
The top 3 regions had 52% of all cases, down slightly.
The top 6 76.4%, up by about 6%.

EV reported about 350 more.
Bicol over 200 more, MIMAROPA about 350 more.



An occasional report on control point activities in the fight against covid in our Brgy.

Sunday Sep 26 10am: Police stop a small van. Tell a guy squeezed in the front seat with another passenger to get in the back.




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Old Sep 26th 2021, 6:50 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Weekly update:

Regional week on week % change in weekly case increase:

MIM +88
CAR 31
CV 27
EV 19
Bic 5
Caraga 4

BARMM -30
NM 22
WV 21
NCR 20
CL 20
Zam 19
4A 19
SOCCSK 18
Dav 16
IL 8
Cag 7

Note: MIMAROPA smaller islands with second lowest regional total case count.

NCR cities:

Mal -87
Tag 81
Nav 69
LP 56
Munt 44
Pasig 44
Val 43
Mla 38
Cal 36
Pat 35
Pnq 34
Psy 31
Mak 29
SJ 25
QC 17
Nkna 10
Mand 1

Quite a large range for the weekly improvement of all NCR cities.

Bataan 5% increase

Otherwise the rest with falls in rate of increase:

Cavite -35
Btngs 33
Lag 27
Pam 18
Bul 18
Pang 13
Riz 10
Quez 9

Cities:

Bac +2
Bag +24
CDO -35
Cebu +66
Dav -12
GSan -29
Ilo2 -33
Lapu2 -17


Cebu City's downward trend possibly reversing.


Areas:

Aklan -17
Boh -16
Ilo2 -37

More cities I will be following (from north to south).

Angeles 485 last week's case increase
Zambales 544

Lucena 265

Naga 622
Sorsogon 534

Tacloban 236

Cotabato 208
Iligan 178
Zamboanga 766


Zamboanga City: continuing recent increases.




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Old Sep 26th 2021, 11:18 pm
  #1105  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday a nearly 4k increase in new cases over Saturday to 20,735 due mostly to a backlog of nearly 4.5k added on. Only 2 labs late.
Positivity from 74.5k tests at 21.9%. Expected tomorrow 66k test results.

Recoveries 24.4k

Deaths continuing at 0.

Active 161,447, but deaths from 3 days not deducted.

Severe 2,583, down 59, Critical 1,130, down 26

NCR ICU 76%, same. National down 1% to 75%.

Regional data:

NCR 5,653
4A 3,651
CL 2,144
IL 1,297
Cag 1,031
WV 1,023
CAR 901
Bic 807
SOCCSK 727
CV 660
Dav 629

500s and 400s; 1 region each
300s 2
200s and 100s: 1 region each

NCR added about 1.6k to have 27.2% of all cases.
4A and CL added smaller numbers to make these top 3 regions have 55.2% of all cases, up.

Ilocos added more than 1k and Cagayan nearly 600.
The top 6 regions had 71.3% of cases, down.

In the Visayas only WV added cases, nearly 700.

In Mindanao: Zamboanga had about 500 more to total 554.
Caraga added more than 300, SOCCSK nearly 450 and NM more than 100.


OCTA weekly update:

Confirming NCR case rate decreasing by 20% on the week.
Philippines decreasing by 13%
They calculate R value 0.94 for NCR, 0.98 for the country.
But NCR positivity at 19%, Philippines 25%.

Their analysis of NCR cities:



OCTA use daily case growth whereas yesterday I posted weekly growth figures, so some differences.
Caloocan, Malabon and Navotas missing from their table, tweeted out yesterday.
Anyway, in all but one NCR city their ADAR number (new cases per pop) is deemed critical.
OCTA use some US guidelines (Covid Act Now) to assess from all this:

Cities at moderate risk:

Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Valenzuala, Pateros

All the rest of the cities at high risk.

In contrast the government are considering a move down for the NCR to their Alert level 3 at the end of this month.


Last edited by Raffin; Sep 26th 2021 at 11:23 pm.
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Old Sep 28th 2021, 4:11 am
  #1106  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH constipated today and not giving the local case data. Might be a data problem with those or they are struggling to put out hundreds of backlogged deaths. The deaths announced yesterday do not include those. Funny, as they have no problem including case backlogs.

New cases yesterday 18,449, including a 2,780 backlog. Positivity 23.5% out of 66.7k tests.

Recoveries 21.8k

Deaths 93, but weirdly they are announcing 117 RDs.

Active 158,169

Severe 2,689, up 106 and Critical 1,265, up 135
Total approaching 4k.

NCR ICU 77%, up 1%. National the same at 75%.

Regional data:

Not available. Will include with tomorrow's report.


At 4pm yesterday.

The two police not there yesterday or today. In fact rain this morning has pushed the Brgy team back into the waiting shed. So no control at all being exercised, they just sit there, play with their phones and have an all day picnic.

I did observe one incident on Sunday pm when the police turned back a vehicle. After a few minutes of argument the driver parked up and waited, presumably to meet up with someone down the road they hoped to visit. Although we don't keep a constant watch we saw no more incidents.

In the same vein saw a medium sized truck this morning go and down the two country lanes we can see with 4 guys in the back and two of them spraying the road and roadsides. First time I have seen that. In Paranaque the subdivision sprayed your tires for a few weeks when you came in, then stopped doing it.

Generally the scientific evidence is that the virus can survive on surfaces, but it's very difficult to catch it from them. This is outside too. About two hours later down came a strong rain!

Going a few kms out from here yesterday we again saw police stopping traffic at a busy T junction, leading off the main road to the municipality. Only this time it was just traffic from Tagaytay and Manila being stopped. So it seems the police's aim is to deter visitors from Manila. Some people may have been turned back after a 2 or 3 hour drive over the last few days. It can't be many as there are not many attractions or second homes in our area. Next time they will go down the main road and do a U turn to avoid being questioned.

All I can think is that a sort of panic has set in here with rising cases this year over last. The President of our sub division joined in by advising we don't go out for 2 weeks! But a small number of cases still. Unnecessary in my view as this is a breezy, low density rural area with no real potential to spread any cases. In our subdivision parties of up to 10 are still allowed to visit, just temperature checks on entry. Nearby Tagaytay getting busier every day, people making the most of the limited dining facilities on offer. The main road towards Batangas quite busy at weekends with day trippers and people heading for second homes.
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Old Sep 29th 2021, 8:39 am
  #1107  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The DOH preparing data manually as their Covidkaya sever crashed....another victim of the delta surge! So the local data for yesterday just came out.
Adding even more delay for people needing that data at the local level.

Yesterday a much lower 13,486 cases from 47,430 tests including a backlog of 2,415 positives from older tests. Positivity 24.1%. Seven labs late to report. 49k tests on the way.

Recoveries 49k....the highest since April 19.
I'm suspicious about these conveniently high recovery numbers lately!

Deaths 91, 37 RDs.
102 deaths have been added from the recent 4 day backlog and the DOH said more will be added later.

Stop press: Another 292 deaths added from the backlog. Today's RDs increase to 212. From now on data will come out at 7pm rather than 4pm. Or should we say "from 7pm" as they rarely made 4pm. Not good timing for the evening news bulletins.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/29/...id-data-issues

Active 132,139

Severe 2,775, up 86, Critical 1,189, down 76

NCR ICU 77%, the same. Nationally 76%, up 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,818
4A 2,137
Cag 2,072
CAR 1,845
CL 1,096
WV 609

400s 2 regions
300s 5
200s 1
100s 3

NCR was down by over 250 at 20.3% of cases.
4A down by over 500, CL by nearly 900.
The 3 regions at 50.8% of all cases, up 9%.

The CAR added the most cases yesterday. with 1k more.
Cagayan had over 600 more.

The top 6 regions had 74.4% of total cases, up 6%.

Elsewhere Zamboanga reported over 100 more to reach 435 new cases.


Last edited by Raffin; Sep 29th 2021 at 9:30 am. Reason: Added another DOH announcement on deaths data.
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Old Sep 29th 2021, 10:28 pm
  #1108  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Again a low case count from the weekend, 12,805 including a smaller 1,051 backlog. Positives 22.9% from 51.3k tests. In preparation 58.5k tests.

Recoveries 12.2k

Deaths 190 with 120 RDs.

Active: 132,339

Severe 2,779, up 4, Critical 1,191, up 2

NCR ICU 74%, down 3%, National 75%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 2,967
4A 1,791
CL 1,121
Cag 1,065
WV 1,011
CAR 952
Dav 674

400s 2 regions
300s 4
200s 3
100s 1

The NCR added about 150 more cases to have an increased 23.1% of total cases.4A numbers fell by over 300 and CL's rose only a little. Therefore the top 3 regions had a lower 45.9% of all cases, up.

WV added about 400.
The top 6 regions had 69.6% of all cases, down 6%.

In Mindanao: Davao reported about 280 more, SOCCSK about 150 more.

A Bloomberg report had the Philippines last out of 53 countries in terms of dealing with covid. The Palace here explains it only in terms of vaccine inequity, as they always do, but there were other factors considered which together put this country at the bottom, below its Asian neighbours.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...ptember/story/

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news...o-blame/story/


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Old Sep 30th 2021, 1:38 am
  #1109  
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Bloomberg sums it all up. A stark observation on the effectiveness of the government and a leadership that is intent on self proclamation.
So there we have it, face shields really do the job!
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Old Sep 30th 2021, 10:33 pm
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A higher case count of 14,286 announced yesterday, more up to date with a lower 565 backlog included. Four labs late. From 62.4k tests giving a positivity of 22.0%. A similar number of tests in process at 61.5K.
Testing down in the past week by 14% in the NCR and 10% nationally, say the DOH. But they still give no reason:


Latest samples tested chart.

Recoveries 8.3K

Deaths 130, 81 RDs

Severe 2,766, down 13, Critical 1,245, up 54

NCR ICU 75%, up 1%, National 74%, down 1%

Regional data:

NCR 3,241
4A 1,839
CL 1,449
Cag 1,410
IL 1,078
CAR 812
WV 784
CV 678
Dav 507

400s 2 regions
300s 3
200s 2

The NCR added over 250 and had 22.7% of all cases. 4A added a few only while CL had over 300 more.
These top 3 regions with 45.7% of al cases, about the same as the day before.

Cagayan and Ilocos both added significant numbers, about 350 and 800 respectively..
The top 6 regions, all in the N and Central Luzon areas, had 68.8% of all cases.

Elsewhere NM had about 150 more cases.

Quarantines:

The NCR cities keep the alert level 4 but with some lowered restrictions. But see below for the latest OCTA report showing real differences between the cities. Some attempt at fine tuning by raising the dine in and personal care limit by only 10%! So now 20%. If you have a "safety seal" permit you get an extra 10%! Who'd like to run those businesses now?
Elsewhere I see they are keeping the MECQ and MGCQ quarantines. Which I thought were going to be dispensed with to simplify the classifications?

https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/natio...v?ocid=BingHPC


NCR Granular lockdowns:

The much trumpeted policy add on is only in 5 subdivisions plus a number of houses, streets etc. Needing 1,400 police and other personnel:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=5

The OCTA group have updated their covid data for NCR cities:


Seems to be for Sep 23-29.

Their previous update to Sep 26 did not include Pasay City as medium risk. Now it does and Navotas, Manila, Malabon, Valenzuala and Pateros maintain medium risk from the last update.
OCTA give a brief explanation of how their risk levels come about, borrowed from https://covidactnow.org/?s=23651278
If you look at that site today you will see that it places the great majority of US states in the second highest risk category, with 5 in the highest, "severe risk".
A much more useful risk system than the one the DOH is using in the NCR and plans to use elsewhere.






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