NCR llockdown

Old Apr 25th 2022, 9:12 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Much lower Saturday testing, only 13.7k done.
New cases: 213
Deaths 12
Active 12,639, down 1,021
Seems to be falling at about 1k a day. But for how many more days as we reach the longer term infections?

Location detail:

NCR at 99 cases and 47% of all cases. For its 6 largest cities: 3 up and 3 down. A total of 53 cases.

Region CL was up to 13.
Region 4A consistently averaging in the 30s at 32. Cavite down 1 to 13.

WV up 5 to 15. But only 26 Visayan cases in total.
The MIndanao regions all had small numbers, though Davao was up 4 to 10.

"Other cities" case numbers 0 - 6 (Davao City).

DOH weekly report:
Last week's figures in brackets.

Cases 1,465 (1,674) down 13%
Deaths 213 (200)
Severe+ Critical: 0 new admissions (1)
Number S+C 726 (664) Has been up and down the last few weeks.
ICU utilization rate: 16.9% (15.8%)
Positivity average: 1.1% (1,4%)

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Old Apr 26th 2022, 9:04 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday new cases 123 from about 19k tests on Monday. A surprisingly low total...unless the infection here is really running out of people to spread to.
Deaths 1
Active 11,580, down 1,059

Location detail:

NCR down to 38 and a lower 31% of total cases. The six largest cities with 24 of them.

Region 4A at 18. CL at 8 cases.

CV at 11 and the Visayan regions with only 21 cases between them.

In Mindanao: SOCCSK at 10 cases and the total for all its regions was only 23.

The nine other cities I track with 0 - 3 cases only.
Iligan City with a zero report now for 4 days running.

Latest SE and E Asian new cases table:


Leaving out China, as its data is so unreliable, all countries with cases and deaths going steadily down except in: Taiwan with a recent case spike and Thailand where deaths still increasing and now averaging well over 100 per day.

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Old Apr 27th 2022, 9:58 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Cases to 195 yesterday from about 22k tests at the beginning of the week.
Deaths 20
Active 10,576, down 1,004

Location detail:

NCR at 92 and back up to just under half of total cases. Small numbers in 5 of the 6 largest cities. But QC at 42. Probably mostly some backlog being announced in one go. The OCTA group pronounced QC " at very low risk for covid" 6 days ago.

CL up to 15, 4A to 23 cases.
The 3 largest regions with two thirds of all cases.

Visayan and Mindanao numbers all low.

For the 9 other cities cases between 0 and 6.
Iligan City had 1 case!

Omicron sub-lineages

No concerns as yet but a traveler from Finland arrived in the CAR earlier this month:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...io-city/story/

Some explanation about what may be happening in the US with these:

https://www.cnet.com/health/medical/...s-subvariants/

But BA.2 is the dominant Omicron there now. Not BA.2.12 and BA 2.12.1 as the health u/sec is quoted as having said.
The Philippines now very open to new variants.




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Old Apr 28th 2022, 10:13 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday two cases less at 193. Testing about the same at 21.7k.
Deaths: 52
Active 9,585, down 991

Location detail:

NCR at 78 The largest 6 cities at 51 cases between them. QC cases back their recent lower level at 10 only.
CL up to 22...highest this week so far. 4A the same at 23 cases.

CV at 13 cases, WV down to 6.
SOCCSKSARGEN at 12, highest so far this week.

Other cities: 0-8

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...-44-doh/story/

The Finnish visitor arrived here 4 weeks ago and since then cases have declined everywhere. Nine contacts were in QC and maybe that was the cause, or partly the cause of the 42 announced there on Wednesday? Seemingly this more transmissible Omicron sub-variant not much of a concern.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

The OCTA group expecting a surge after the election. Have calculated a slightly higher R value for the NCR. But the way they describe the situation "surge" is not the correct word. Rather a small increase or even a "quiet surge"!
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Old Apr 29th 2022, 9:17 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 184 new cases from a little over 20k tests on Tuesday.
Deaths 38
Active 8,389, down 1.196

Location detail:

NCR 63, 34% of all cases. Six largest cities with 52 of them. QC notable with 22.

Region CL with 16, 4A a consistent 25. Cavite 10.
These 3 regions with 57% of all cases.

The 4 Visayas regions with a total of 31 cases.

Mindanao region total almost the same at 30 cases.

The 9 "other cities" 1 - 6 cases.

Alert levels nationwide until May 15.
A comprehensive list from GMA online news.
Difficult to understand why some areas are at Alert level 2 eg Quezon Province 13 cases started in last 14 days. Sorsogon 3, Bohol 7, Cotobato City 5.
More explicable: Cebu province 28, GenSan City 41

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...-palace/story/

Sinovac:

Discussed at some length by Dr J Campbell in a recent video in relation to China.
Accounts for about a third of all the vaccine jabs administered here.


To do well at preventing death and severe illness Sinovac needs a booster.
China data.


In China only about half of Seniors have had a booster.
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Old Apr 30th 2022, 8:59 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday's cases well up at 240, the highest for 10 days. Testing levels still around 20k.
Deaths 36
Active 7,165, down 1,224

Location detail:

The NCR double the day before at 126. and at 53% of all cases. You have to go back to early April for a higher figure. Just over half from the 6 largest of its cities. Manila at a much higher 25.
A couple of months ago these numbers would be excellent, but they are an abrupt change, so of concern. There seem to be rumors around that the DOH are soon going to announce an "artificial" increase in cases:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/30/...fore-elections

Notice that the NCR numbers are not discussed despite yesterday's total and its recent relatively high numbers recently. The OCTA group surely know and are keeping mum. The DOH do not announce them. We will see over the next week if there is any rise or that this sudden increase was due to a "one-off" backlog. Provided cases are not withheld from publication pre election!

Region CL 21 cases. 4A 27 cases. Of which Cavite 13.
The three regions together at 73% of all cases.

Only 19 cases in the Visayas.
In Mindanao 28. The SOCCSK region with a frequently relatively high number. Yesterday 10.

The 9 "other cities": 0 - 6 cases.

Weekly report later.
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Old May 1st 2022, 9:42 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Weekly report:

National cases announced down 8%. Last week (-17%).

NCR cases up 6% (-16%).

Paranaque -13%
Caloocan -9
Manila -1

QC +42%
Taguig +24
Pasig +16

A 10% increase in the 6 largest NCR cities cases over the week before.

CL region down 28% (-29%). Bulacan up 29%.
Region 4A down 26% (-12%). Cavite down 16% (-29). Laguna down 33%. Rizal up 28%.

WV down 10% (-40)
CV up 5% (-31)

Zamboanga Pen. down 30% (+57)
Davao down 27% (-16)
SOCCSK down 6% (-14)

The 9 "other cities":

Range from 4 - 24 for the week.
Increases only in Baguio, up 6 to 10 and Cebu City up 11 to 24.

So a mixed picture with the rate of national improvement cut by half and a slight increase in the NCR. QC showing a notable increase. A mixed picture in the area around the NCR, the Visayas and Mindanao too.

For the 9 cities I track outside the NCR cases only averaging at a maximum of 3-4 a day.

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Old May 1st 2022, 11:15 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 253 cases from a lower Friday testing at 16.9k.
Deaths 56
Active 5,967, down 1,198

Location detail:

NCR down to 96. Fifty cases from its 6 largest cities.
Region CL down 5 to 16 but 4A up 12 to 39 Cavite up just 2, Laguna 5, Rizal down 2.

WV up 5, CV up 10 to 13 and 18 cases.

Only 24 cases in Mindanao.

In the 9 "other cities" the range from 0 to 5 cases only.
Bacolod, Baguio and CDO cities with zero cases announced.

The PSA have produced a chart comparing the cause of deaths in 2020 and 2021 (preliminary as Nov and Dec incomplete):


Covid as an increased cause in 2021 is obvious but heart diseases and strokes?
Note: an increased risk of heart disease has been associated both from vaccination with mRNA type vaccines and with the covid 19 disease itself.
It should be taken into account that a significant proportion of vaccinations were by Sinovac, an inactivated non mRNA type vaccine.

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Old May 1st 2022, 11:45 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The reason deaths from heart attacks etc are up is because it's virtually impossible to get into hospital in any timely manner because of the covid restrictions. You need a covid test and quarantine until a result just to be admitted. So that thousands of pesos before you get any other treatment.
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Old May 2nd 2022, 1:19 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d View Post
The reason deaths from heart attacks etc are up is because it's virtually impossible to get into hospital in any timely manner because of the covid restrictions. You need a covid test and quarantine until a result just to be admitted. So that thousands of pesos before you get any other treatment.
Yes, that may have been a common situation with non emergency admissions. Though not so much with emergencies. Yes, delays in, or not even admitting a non emergency admission with heart problems could certainly have led to usually avoidable deaths. Difficult to estimate the number who would have died anyway. Let alone link that with vaccination.

Young men post mRNA vaccinated seem to be at a slightly increased risk of death from heart disease. But the CDC calculated the risk of the same after catching covid was many times higher. Justifying vaccination.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7114e1.htm

In Europe Germany and France restricted AZ and Moderna vaccines in 2021 due to their concerns about the possible link.

Here we have the official figures of only 269 deaths post vaccination 12-39 yrs for both sexes. The majority of vaccinations were by Pfizer and Sinovac, non mRNA type. Against that it is clear that here the monitoring of health is poor, and cases may well not be known about at all in some areas of the country. Also we do have a large percentage of young men in the population.

Still, the heart disease increase is large and will get larger as 2021 death data continues to come in. No official investigation will take place, as usual. Except perhaps by academics here or the country will be one whose covid statistics will be compared internationally.




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Old May 2nd 2022, 9:03 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 188 new cases from a much lower Sunday testing of 12.7k individuals.
Told for a change that 290 out of 340 test labs submitted last Sunday.
Deaths 13
Active 5,303, down 664
A lower fall. Recently around 1k.

Location detail:

NCR 75 cases at a higher 40% of all cases. 44 of them from the 6 largest cities. Caloocan up 7 to 12.
CL 15, 4A 29 cases.
These 3 regions with 63% of all cases.

WV up 7 to 20. CV at 5.
Visayas 30 cases in total.

Mindanao only 23 cases in total.

In my 9 cities cases from 0 - 5.


More areas go to Alert Level 1:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/05/02/...-alert-level-1

DOH weekly report.
Last week in brackets

Cases 1,399 (1,465) Down 4.5% For the DOH "week".
I had a fall of 8% for my calendar week.

Deaths 215 (213)
2022: 91
2021 119
2020 5
Note the large number from 2021.
Not getting this breakdown every week.

723 Severe and Critical (726) Again no new admissions.
ICU 16.1% (16.9%)

Positivity average for the week:1.1% (1.2%)



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Old May 3rd 2022, 8:19 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 134 cases from 18.3k tests May 2.
Deaths 2
Active 5,145, down 158

Location detail:

NCR 53 and maintaining a 40% share in national cases. Its 6 largest cities with 37 cases. Manila top with 14 cases.
CL added 9 to 24, Bulacan 10. 4A down 17 to 12.
These 3 regions with 66% of all cases.

The 3 Visayas regions with only 19 cases.
The Mindanao regions only announced 17 cases.

The 9 "other cities" with 0 - 3 cases only.
Baguio City with zero cases for the last 3 days.


Philippine covid death data:

In her latest newsletter Super Sally has analyzed DOH data. relating to the testing of deaths cases. She estimates about a third of deaths pronounced due to covid by the DOH so far in the pandemic have a test record which clearly does not tie up with the typical disease progression of covid. Most of them were put down as due to covid before being tested and the rest only a day after testing.

To subscribe to her regular newsletters (free):

https://supersally.substack.com/
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Old May 3rd 2022, 11:47 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

The problem is that hospitals get extra government money for covid cases. You can work the rest out yourself.
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Old May 4th 2022, 1:13 am
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Originally Posted by Gazza-d View Post
The problem is that hospitals get extra government money for covid cases. You can work the rest out yourself.
Haven't seen any news about that here, although it would be likely! Some evidence of that sort of thing happening in the US. Payment there was for treating, not for covid death as many people there claimed in social media posts.

Here it seems many people were only tested for covid well after they had died. Forgetting the financial angle, assuming tests were not falsified, how could they be treated appropriately in the days before their death? We do know many patients were not in primary hospitals.
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Old May 4th 2022, 9:29 pm
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Default Re: NCR llockdown

Yesterday 159 new cases from a lower testing of 16.9k individuals.
Deaths 27
Active 4,692, down 453

Location data:

NCR 55 and 35% of the national total. Its six largest cities 33.

CL 18. 4A 26 in which Cavite led with 16 cases.
These 3 regions at 62% of all cases.

The Visayan regions at 16 cases in total.
Mindanao total of 22.

The 9 "other cities" range 0 - 5 cases.
Cebu City reporting no cases last two days.

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