Raffin

Cases yesterday greatly down by nearly 300 to 442 following the usual weekend testing fall. Can't give the positivity rate daily now, only weekly, starting next week.

As a consequence of the low total some regional figures and all the cities I am tracking outside the NCR were in single digits.

Yet the NCR report was a much higher 37.1% of national cases. For its 6 largest cities 3 were down and 3 up...Manila added 7 to 40, QC was down 4 to 26.

While CL cases were down 43 to 35, 4A's fell less proportionately to 65 and were at at a higher 14.7% of national cases.

Cases in nearly all Visayan and Mindanao regions fell significantly except in SOCCSKSARGEN, with 5 more to 20.

Last, of note that Baguio City had no cases. Bacolod City only one.

Raffin

Yesterday 580 new cases were announced on the DOH tracker site. Hailed as the lowest this year by GMA News but ABS-CBN called it correctly as the second lowest, after 442 the day before. GMA just cottoned on that you can still get some daily information from the DOH tracker site. But these figures are without the context oft test number, cases held back for further validation and labs late to submit.

Looking at the cumulative deaths figures one can make a good estimate of daily deaths:

For Tuesday: 6
Yesterday: 110

I say estimate because occasionally the DOH makes revisions to the cumulative deaths total.

Location detail:

NCR 137 and a fall in its national share back down to 23.6%. Six largest cities: 3 up, 3 down by small numbers.
CL up 21 to 56,. 4A up 17 to 82 and down slightly to 14.1% of all cases.

In the Visayas WV up 46 to 80.
IloIlo City up to 31, highest so far this week.

In Mindanao small increases in Caraga, Davao and Zamboanga regions. while SOCCSKSARGEN was up 18 to 38.
GenSan City up 5 to 11.

Raffin

Yesterday a slightly higher 592 more cases and 76 more deaths.
Active total now 47,173

Location detail

The NCR up 15 to 152 and a higher 25.7% of all cases. Greater case rises outside the largest 6 cities as only Pasig and Taguig had a few more each..
Regions 4A and CL reported less cases than the day before. Cavite province 13 more to 22.

The CAR 12 more to 23. Baguio City up to 14.

The two largest Visayan regions were down. EV up a little.
Cebu City up 13 to 22.

In Mindanao nearly all regions had less cases. Davao up slightly to 28.

The situation in E and SE Asia:


Latest daily cases. S Korea has fairly high testing but nevertheless.. The Philippines would be at 20th place but Worldometers at 7am had still not entered its numbers for yesterday.


S Korea cases.


S Korea deaths higher for Omicron.



Indonesia on an established downward trend.

Raffin

Six more cases announced yesterday at 598. Deaths 59.
Active 47,116

Location detail:

NCR down by only 3 cases at 149 and at 24.9% of national cases. Four of its six largest NCR cities each up by a few cases.

CL down but 4A up 14 to 90 and 15% of national cases. Laguna and Rizal provinces with a few more cases.
The Ilocos region up by 21 to 33.

WV added 11 to 66. Bacolod City 8 cases.

Four Mindanao regions with small increases.
Davao, GenSan and Zamboanga Cities each with small increases.

Raffin

Yesterday 57 more cases over the day before were announced, at 655.
Deaths 124
Active: 46,752

Location detail:

NCR up to the second highest case number this week at 205, 31.3% of all cases. Five of its 6 largest cities reported more cases. Manila 22 more to 48.
CL had a few more cases, region 4A a few less.

All 4 Visayan regions had more cases. WV added 22 to have 88.

Small changes in all but one of the cities I am tracking.
IloIlo City added 16 to report a total of 24.

Weekly update later.

Raffin

Weekly update:

A slight drop in the rate of fall over the week before for the country as a whole from 35 to 33%.

For the regions (previous week's % fall in brackets):

NCR 22 (28) Pnq. Tag, Caloocan Cities around 5%, Manila 22%, QC 26%, Pasig 40%

4A 28 (34) Cavite, Laguna both 26%, Rizal 20%
CL 35 (36) Bulacan 40%

Cagayan 51 (45)
CAR 36 (57)
IL 40 (45)
Bic 43 (39)

WV 45 (23)
CV 50 (40)
EV 40 (29)
Mim 42 (13)

BARMM 33 (49)
NM 36 (39)
D 50 (32)
Zam 41 (43)
Caraga 37 (34)
SOCCSK 12 (79)

Other cities

Baguio 51

Cebu 30
Bacolod 23
IloIlo 57

Davao 70
GenSan 16
Iligan 40 very small numbers
Zam 44

The NCR rate of fall continues to slow.
The same for the three main provinces around...Cavite, Laguna and Rizal.

All Visayan regions falling at a fast rate.

A mixed picture in Mindanao:
Davao region and Davao City cases falling at a fast rate.
Moderate falls elsewhere except in the SOCCSKSARGEN region which had a large drop in the rate of fall.

Raffin

Yesterday's new cases 564, deaths 169...nearly 300 last two days.
Active 46,537

Location detail:

NCR total down by only 8, 3 of its largest cities up, 3 down. Up to 34.4% of all cases.
CL up slightly, 4A down to 77 and 13.7% of all cases.
Laguna province up slightly.

The great majority of other regions down.
SOCCSKSARGEN up to 31.

Raffin

Yesterday a few less new cases at 554.
Deaths 15
Active 57,625

Location detail:

NCR 141 and down to 26.4% of national cases. Only the city of Manila up significantly, adding 5 to 28. Pasig City zero.
Both CL and 4A down, but the latter region up slightly to 13.9% of all cases. Rizal up 8 to 23.

The CAR and Ilocos region both up slightly.

In the Visayas WV up 32 to 79, CV up 18 to 62

In Mindanao NM up 8 to 13.

DOH weekly report:
Out but not yet on their website!
Figures from GMA.

For 7-13 March:
4,131, 590 per day average.
Compare with my week of March 6-12: 4,164. 595 per day average.

Positivity for the week

Deaths 591 (615 in the previous 7 days)
For my week March 6-12 438

March 115, Feb 164, 95 Jan
217 back to March 2020

In a severe and critical condition 1,006 compared to 1,055 the previous week.
Note: On March 7 the DOH said there were 1,568!

Nationwide ICU use 19.6%.
NCR figure not available.

Raffin

Philippines covid deaths

A respected US heath statistics Institute in Washington State has published a peer reviewed paper on worldwide excess covid deaths.
Discussed by Dr John in a recent video.
Links to the paper and results are given there.



For the Philippines:

Reported: 53k
Mortality rate; 23.8/100k
Excess deaths: 184k
Excess deaths per 100k: 82.9

For comparison:

Indonesia 144k, 27.5, 736k,140.7
UK 173k, 131.1, 142k, 125.8

The Philippine death total from the DOH was questioned recently by the PSA in a report.
Working from death certificates they said that covid deaths up to November 2021 were 103k. Twice as many.
From monitoring what the DOH do with their death statistics I would put my money on the PSA!
Therefore its mortality rate is doubled but excess deaths are much less than estimated here.
See my post here Feb 4.

The authors also seem to doubt the reported UK number. Both Worldometers and John's Hopkins now show it at differing numbers, but in the 160ks. Whereas in the paper the figure they are using is 173k, up to a few months ago.

Bealinehx

Yes the latest Dr John presentation was fascinating. No surprises about the Philippines. The variations between PSA and DOH reported deaths really highlights the poor data collection by the DOH. As for the UK there was always a suspicion that there was over reporting and that some of the parameters were spurious.

Bealinehx

It seems that both the Philippines and the UK have ceased to report one Covid to Worldometer, or, that the data is no longer available. Of course the DOH here have said that they are only going to publish data weekly.
On another topic many may remember at the beginning of the pandemic on how well S Korea was managing the crisis. Well now they have been reporting in excess of 300,000 new cases per day. I wonder how things are going to shape up in the PRC? There's a thought to mull over your breakfast!

Raffin

Good morning!

The UK now announce the weekend plus Monday cases., This week 170k. Gives Worldometers indigestion. They don't put anything in new cases. In any case the UK say no more daily data after April 1.
Here the DOH haven't put out yesterday's figures yet. maybe they've laid off staff there as their data publications are now less? Their weekly bulletin came out late and is not very informative.

S Korea having to build new temporary hospitals to cope.
China figures only 3,602, 1,436 last two days. Can we believe them?

Raffin

No covid data from the DOH so far today for March 14. Have they stopped daily data? Let's see tomorrow.

Otherwise they have put the NCR and most other areas under level 1 from today until the end of the month:

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...story/?just_in

The government eyeing some sort of level for the whole country, one not quite back to complete normality. My bet is that all they will keep is mask wearing:

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/16/...d-alert-system

The Health Secretary commenting on the possibility of new variants coming here, especially from Hong Kong. He says we have better vaccine coverage than Hong Kong. We don't. Latest figures 2 doses 80.7% in Hong Kong compared to 59% Philippines. They are also well ahead on the 3rd dose at about 43% while here 11.2M, so just over 10%.

Also is he sure we have BA.2 here as the dominant variant? No information on that for some weeks.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops..._picks&order=4

Raffin

Better late than never with daily data but a no show for data on Tuesday.

So yesterday 393 cases.
Note: we have no idea how many cases are being held back by the DOH from day to day.. Will have some idea when we see positivity data, but that is lagging.

Deaths 110 for the last two days.
Active 45,447 Over 800 down last two days.

Location detail:

NCR down to 114, but up to 29% of all cases.
CL up to 11.7%, 4A 14.2%
The 3 regions accounting for well over half of all cases.

WV holding up at 61 cases and 15.5% of total cases.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/tops...level-1/story/

More areas go to Alert Level 1.


Dr John continues to bang the drum about natural immunity. About mask rules in Scotland..

He discusses why most governments are not listening and continuing to push vaccination .Mainly because that's what the momentum is for, they have programmes to complete, bought the vaccines, the public expects them. They think they can get herd immunity or near it. They may also be looking at some other countries where there is a recent uptick in hospitalizations from very high virus levels, even with Omicron. Like the UK or in E Asia.

The Philippines?

Only moderate immunity from vaccination with a lowish rate and about half with the less effective Sinovac. The infection rate also only moderate. Still, a young population and one generally adhering to protocols. Unless a dangerous new variant comes in the next few months I think they can hold off boosting generally even if they won't release people from masks.

Bealinehx

The Philippines?
As it is now election season does anyone really expect serious data to be released?