Bealinehx

Yes I can now understand that. The middle income earners is not my beef but the level above is.

Raffin

A higher figure reported yesterday although recently Wednesday counts have been affected by weekend falls in testing. And yet 8 labs did not report on time. So 9,227 new cases and positivity back up to 19.5%. A lower backlog than of late at just under 2k. Tests coming along at 40.2k.

Recoveries 19k (now all announced daily).

Deaths again high at 124, including 36 RDs.

Active cases at 116.4k.

Severe cases up 43 to 932, Critical down 63 to 699.
NCR ICU 82%, Isolation beds at 61%.

Some location detail:

CAR 417
NCR 4,117
Ilocos 138
Cagayan 692
C Luzon 963
4A 1,943
W Visayas 225
C Visayas 134

NCR back up to 44.6% of national cases.
The NCR bubble area at 65.4%, up on the day before.
The top 6 at 90.6%, also up, reversing a recent falling short term trend.

In the NCR 11 cities were substantially up. QC added 444 more!
Malabon, Muntinlupa and Pasay were stable.
Only Taguig fell significantly by 63 to 360 added.

Provincially nearly all regions close to Manila had many more new cases. Cavite put on well over 200 more.
Further away, Pampanga, Pangasinan and Quezon province new case numbers were stable.

Some cities:

Bacolod 38
Baguio 119 daily numbers consistent at over 100 recently.
Cebu 33 lower
Santiago 33 lower
Davao 46 a little higher
Zamboanga 59 lower

Variants:

Some concern about India's recent surge:


India, a very steep rise in cases over the last month.

Several explanations for it have been put forward, but rapid rises have been linked to new variants elsewhere. There is a double mutation variant there, especially in the Mumbai area of Maharastra State, where it is now thought to be dominant. Its population is about 120m and the Mumbai area alone has about 25m.people. The mutations may lead the virus to evade anti bodies and decrease vaccine effectiveness, though studies into that are still ongoing. India at 8% vaccinated at present.
Its been detected in the UK, but the government is being criticised for not stopping India arrivals until this coming Friday.
See Dr John's Tuesday update on You tube for more on this.
The Philippines stopped India arrivals in January.

Vaccinations:

Philippines is the 4th highest in SE Asia but the country with a similarly bad outbreak, Indonesia, has now vaccinated 17m of its population, the Philippines only 1.5m. Indonesia at 4.2%, the Philippines at 1.4%. The Philippines is yet to protect all front line medical staff with vaccinations.

How are things here now compared with last year?

A discussion last year between Dr John Campbell and Dr Benjamin Co, a pediatric infectious disease specialist here. Also a blogger and a persistent critic of covid data and policy.


Interesting that Dr Co said back then they were seeing 99.6% mild/asymptomatic cases here. Now it's less at 98%. About 0.4% Severe/Critical. Now above that. Yesterday's figures were typical lately at 0.8% Severe and 0.6% Critical. He also suggested the "lower socio-economic classes" may have some sort of herd immunity. But Dr Campbell seemed to think it was more to do with the lower average age. And maybe because vaccination against infectious diseases historically have been quite good here, though it took a hit a few years ago after the Dengraxia controversy.

Latest DOH chart on this:

Bealinehx

In his latest video Dr John spoke about the situation in India. With the low level of testing he surmised that the actual level of COVID cases is probably more than declared, two, three or more times he speculated. Perhaps even more.
This must be a concern for the Philippines. On testing India is achieving 194,876 tests per million, Philippines 101,977. So the real picture here could be 50,000 cases per day. The UK is achieving 2,142,250 tests per million.
As an aside why did it take the UK this long to declare India a red zone country? Perhaps because senior members of HMG have S. Asian heritage. But then again I may be wrong. Perhaps I'm in danger of being classified as anti WOKE.

Raffin

It works two way. India put on a ban against the UK variant only from 22 December. That's some weeks after it had been identified as a mutation that could cause a rapid increase in infections. So it's all about relations with India in general.

I think the India situation is mainly down to the right wing populist in charge there being of the sort that wants to show off. Unlike here. Elections went ahead, cricket tournaments, large weddings, religious festivals etc .....he wanted to show off after some initial success last year.

Yes, agree testing has never been high enough here. But I think undiscovered cases are more like x2 or x3. If as high as five times for so many months then the bad as it is hospital situation here would be seen to be clearly much worse, like we see in countries like Brazil.

Raffin

Last week the Thursday announcement was 9k plus, so maybe there is some small improvement with 8,767 new cases. And up to date as the backlog was low at 343. Positivity was also down at 17.5%. Tests coming along at a higher 47k.

Deaths again high at 105, 43 of them RDs....these have now been a feature of deaths data for about 10 months!

Recoveries 17.1k.

Severe up 40 to 972, Critical up 57 to 756.
NCR ICU at 89%, isolation bedsat 61%.

Active cases now 108k, down 8k.

Some location details:

CAR 254
NCR 4,157
Ilocos 139
Cagayan 377
C Luzon 1,097
4A 1,492
W Visayas 303
C Visayas 178

Regionally the NCR had 40 more cases and its share of the national total increased to 47.4%.
Region 4A went down by 450, but Central Luzon added more than 100 more.
Both the CAR and Cagayan added less but Western and Central Visayas both added more.

The NCR bubble's share went up to 67%.
The top 6 region's share fell to 87.6%.

In the NCR Caloocan added more than 200 more than the day before at 449 cases.
Malabon added 93 more and Valenzuala 54 more.
Small San Juan added 98 more on the previous day.

QC added nearly 250 cases less at 887.

In the provinces near the NCR the feature was Bulacan, which reported nearly 200 more cases over the day before at 529.
Whereas Cavite's tally fell by more than 300 to 398.
Rizal had 42 less at 432.

Some cities:

Bacolod 56
Baguio less at 82
Cebu 46
Santiago 39
Davao 9 only
Zamboanga 111..steadily increasing.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/...tober-november

Oh dear!

Gazza-d

I've just been watching the latest from Dr John. I hope the Indian variant doesn't get into the Philippines because if it does it could be devastating. It contains a clip from the BBC, very sombre viewing. It should be shown in the Philippines then put on a loop until they sit up and take note.

Raffin

Yesterday a similar new cases number to the day before at 8,718. Six labs reported late, One was not operational. For once there was almost no backlog.... 3. Positivity at 17.1%. Tests coming along 45k. Increased testing could easily find many more cases when positivity is as high as it is. Some evidence that cases are more to be found around the country making that more difficult.

Deaths continue high at 159 with 77 RDs.

Recoveries 14k.

Active cases now 102,799.

Severe percentage of active cases at a high 0.9, Critical also high at 0.7%.
Severe down 47 at 925, Critical down 36 at 720.

NCR ICU beds at 82%, Isolation beds at 60%.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news..._picks&order=4

Plenty of shocking hospital stories here. A doctor with covid tries 7 hospitals before finding a bed!

Some location data:

Regions:

CAR 323
NCR 3,500
Ilocos 180
Cagayan 275
C Luzon 1,219
4A 1,813
W Visayas 232
C Visayas 270

NCR share at a low 40.1%, down 657 cases. Notably 4A up by over 300 cases and Central Luzon by over 100.
CAR, Central Visayas and Ilocos cases all up.
Cagayan and Western Visayas both down on the previous day.

The share of the top 6 regions was down at 85%.
The NCR bubble share was also down at 60%.

In the NCR 13 cities reported less cases. Manila had only 31 less, but QC nearly 200 less.
Cities adding cases on the day before were led by Paranaque with 114 more. Pasay had 49 more. Muntinlupa 30 more.

For the provinces near Manila Cavite and Laguna both added more cases. Bulacan and Rizal both added less.
Batangas added 188 more.

For cities:

Bacolod 53
Baguio 139...higher
Cebu 75
Davao 12
CDO 54
Zamboanga 138...concerning increases for a city with a population estimated now at nearly 1m.

Central Luzon cities:
Angeles 121
Tarlac 78
Zambales 38

Bealinehx

The plight of the Philippines and Covid made it to The Daily Torygraph yesterday St Georges Day.

Bealinehx

"I hope the Indian variant doesn't get into the Philippines because if it does it could be devastating."
It certainly will. People are still wandering around without wearing face masks correctly. Personally I believe we are in the calm before the storm.
Sadly the country lacks discipline, accountability and responsibility in general, and within some LGU's in particular. Sounds harsh? Just stand back and watch.

Raffin

It could sneak in here but flights have been off for months and I am guessing not many OFWs there.
I'm getting more concerned about the UK though. Sky News just reported over 100 cases with 55 last week. Most in London and 3 with no travel history.
If it can evade the immune system somewhat then the level of protection from the UKs vaccination programme is not so high.
Added to that talk of removing the mask mandate "by the summer" At present for public transport and in shops. Here, despite some sloppy wearing, its in all public places plus shields. Whenever we start to relax here they can start with removal of face shields only.

Bealinehx

For the UK to take so long to place India in the Red zone is simple negligence. A spike in the UK is inevitable as a result of this laxity.
The UK is officially out of Pandemic mode and has entered the place called Endemic. As for mask wearing I would have thought that the trends at that time will become the deciding issue, or perhaps mass civil disobedience.

Raffin

Yes, even without premature lifting of controls and variants, I read that the experts there are expecting an increase there in the autumn.

Raffin

Yesterday 9,661 new cases, 5 labs late. Positivity down to 16,3% from tests which included again a large backlog, 3,363.
Tests coming along 43k.

Deaths 145 including 56 RDs. No analysis from the DOH but we can assume the RDs we see lately are from a few weeks ago.
Recoveries 22.9k.

Active cases 89,485 and a high 1.1% were in a Severe condition...984, up 59. Critical at 0.8% meant there were 716, down 4.
Notice that as these primary hospitals are near capacity these numbers never get much bigger.

NCR ICU now 71%, down from 82%. Isolation beds 59%.
For comparison ICU in region 4A at 76% and in Central Luzon a high 79%.

Some location data:

CAR 315
NCR 3,645
Ilocos 158
Cagayan 645
C Luzon 1,412
4A 1,851
W Visayas 391
C Visayas 328

NCR up 145 to 37.7% of national cases , lower.
The NCR plus bubble also lower at 56.3%
The top 6 regions with a higher 85.6% of national cases.

For NCR cities:

Seven with stable numbers, 5 significantly down and 5 up.
Paranaque was down 73, Pasay by 45.
Malabon up 157, Marikina up 71 and Pasig by 86.
Tiny Pateros up 42.

For provinces near Manila Cavite had 100 more cases, Rizal 78 more.
But Pampanga had 150 more.
Batangas and Laguna had notably less.

Selected cities:

Bacolod 92, up
Baguio 78
Cebu 59
Davao 26
CDO 34
Zamboanga 111, down 27 but still high.

In Central Luzon:

Angeles 138 up 17.
Tarlac 108 up 30.
Zambales 36


One more week of MECQ in the NCR plus "bubble" is left this month before another decision.
Cases in the NCR last week fell by about 13% over the previous week.. I say "about" as for one day I couldn't get the figure. The result of business shutdowns and some travel restrictions within the so called bubble area. Cases fell in the 3 Region 4A bubble provinces about the same as in the NCR, but not so much in Bulacan. In adjacent Pampanga, a Central Luzon province not in the bubble, cases falling much less.


NCR



Cavite, Laguna and Rizal


Bulacan


Pampanga

In another province adjacent to two Calabarzon provinces in the bubble, Batangas cases also falling very little:


Batangas

So, there could even be a case for expanding the bubble area, though unlikely to happen as it could be seen as too difficult to organise over such a large area.

For the quarantine level a difficult decision as the government has no appetite for adding to the 1 to 4k PhP help per household one off payment, which has still not been all paid out.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/23/...ill-intact-dti

Small businesses are big employers of the people hurt most by the MECQ and many of them seem from this to be at least uncertain as to keeping them going.

Experience here and elsewhere indicates that keeping cases at any level is not a long term prospect. Cases have usually eventually started to increase. In the few countries where the virus has been almost completely beaten cases go straight down. Assuming the government doesn't want to see starvation which even many more Community Pantries cannot deal with, it has to loosen the MECQ soon, if not at the end of April. Then the case level we have now will likely rise back up and continue rising until vaccines can start to have an effect. That could be late this year. I think no other options are available to make much of a difference in time to stop it, only to reduce the rate of rise eg they could go for concentrated vaccinations by area and/or delayed second doses. Sadly, the toll on the health services and on patients will be considerable and will put the focus on the Philippines internationally.

Raffin

Yesterday 8,162 new cases announced, a higher 8 labs were too late reporting. Two not operating. A small backlog of 151, so up to date. Positivity at a lower 16.7%. Tests in process 39.3k.
Recoveries 25.5k.
Deaths 109..,,,no info on RDs.
Active cases 77,075, 1.2% Severe at 925, down 59. Critical 1.0% up 55 to 771.
NCR ICU use up to 72%, Isolation 58%

Some location detail:

CAR 344
NCR 2,824
Ilocos 168
Cagayan 627
C Luzon 975
4A 1,689
W Visayas 317
C Visayas 285

All top regions with less cases except the CAR and Ilocos, both up.
NCR down more than 800 cases, C Luzon down by more than 400.

The top 6 region's share down to 83%.
The NCR bubble share down to 56%.

For NCR cities:

Nine significantly down on yesterday,3 up.
QC had 300 less. Pasig 86 less.
Paranaque 40 more.

For provinces Bulacan was stable, Cavite was up 30, Laguna had 100 plus more, but Rizal was down by more than 200.
Notably Pampanga was down by 200.

Some cities:

Bacolod 76
Baguio 113
Cebu 73
CDO 16
Davao 30
Zamboanga 156...up 41.

In C Luzon:

Angeles 39
Tar;ac 172.....up 64 on the previous day.
Zambales 20

OCTA estimate the latest NCR R number estimate at 0.93 and give the region a 20% decline in average daily cases recently.
But positivity there is still high at 19%.
Much Less of a fall for Calabarzon and Central Luzon.
W Visayas with a large recent fall.



OCTA update

Raffin

The not very important 1m recorded case mark was reached. Much more important was that daily cases were at 8,929 with 9 labs late and 2 not operating. Continuing a recent level of between 8 and 10k. Looking at the Asian table for new cases as of April 25 see where we are:


Note: DOH originally reported 8,162.

Tests are also out of date as the backlog was 1,270. Positivity again at a continuing high 16.7%. Tests in process 40k.
Recoveries 11.3k.

Deaths at 70 with 27 of them RDs.

Active cases at 74,623.

Breaking that down regionally:

NCR 42%
4A: 19%
C Luzon 13%

The NCR dominating. and these 3 epicentre regions give 74% of the current national total of active cases. But they make up less, 69.7%, of total cases to date.

Severe up 45 to 970, Critical down 25 to 746.
NCR ICU at 71%, Isolation 57%....a slight improvement.

Regional data:

CAR 354
Ilocos 178
NCR 3,472
Cagayan 680
C Luzon 1,173
4A 1,691
W Visayas 341
C Visayas 312

All regions except 4A were up. 4A was about the same.
NCR was up by over 600, C Luzon by more than 200.
The NCR was at 39% of national cases.
The NCR bubble area was up by 3.7% to 59.6%.
The top 6 regions giving more cases at 86.4%.

In the NCR 6 cities were up and 6 went down significantly.
Notable increases were in Caloocan, by about 100, QC by nearly 200 and most of all in Taguig, which had 345 more cases, reporting a tally of 583.
Pasay reported 46 less with only 69 yesterday.

Provincially, in the NCR bubble area Bulacan had more than 100 more to 493, Rizal about 150 more and up to 435
Cavite and Laguna both reported less, Laguna by 60 to 401 cases.

Selected cities:

Bacolod up to 105.
Baguio down to 58
CDO 46
Cebu 44
Davao 25
Zamboanga down to 85

In C Luzon:
Angeles was up to 85
Tar;ac was down by 115 to 57.
Zambales was up 29 to 49

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/multim...-hospital-full

Just one example of how stretched the hospitals are in the NCR.

The Bayanihan 3 bill still not passed as economic managers look around to fund it. The more they can find the longer the government can keep restrictions on to control the virus outbreak, but I feel the help they will give will not go as much directly to families as it did with Bayanihans 1 and 2.

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/mone..._picks&order=1